Heresy 227 and the Great Turtle

[LynnS]

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

Is it possible that four or five year old Daenerys recalls the meeting and made some unconscious connection between the transaction and the selling of whores in Braavos?

If you recall, the marriage contract in question makes no mention of Dany at all.  This is according to Barristan Selmy, although Dany accepts some clause in the contract that binds her when Quentyn presents it.  So I don't think Dany was ever in Braavos during that negotiation.

[corbon]

14 hours ago, Melifeather said:

My position is that the terrain from the Prince's Pass over the Red Mountains would be very arduous and difficult, if not downright impossible, and if the Torrentine canyon is indeed as described in the World Book, then GRRM has created a stronghold very difficult to get to, and it should make the reader question "how" Ned got there. 

Evidence provided to you from the text shows this position to be untenable. Yet you refuse to even acknowledge that evidence has been shown.

14 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Furthermore, if you travel through the Prince's Pass you will enter the sands of Dorne. Deserts are often located on the eastern side of mountain ranges as the mountains themselves can block moisture from being carried over by the clouds. This is the most confusing part of your bone with me, because I really have no idea what you are contesting. Are you saying that the Red Mountains of Dorne don't contain any sand? Sandstone is red. I wonder what the Red Mountains are made of? Is it red granite? I suppose the Prince's Pass is stony, but I suspect once you get through the pass that you'd be stepping into sand... 

No, you won't. This is the same pattern - ignore evidence that doesn't support (in this case outright refutes) your position and insist you are right and that anyone who doesn't agree with you has provided no evidence.

This point was hammered and hammered and hammered during the 'no roses at ToJ' argument. It was utterly ignored then and you're doing it again now. Here it is again.

Quote

Most of the First Men who chose to remain in Dorne, instead of wandering north in search of sweeter lands, settled close to the banks of the Greenblood, digging canals and ditches to bring its life-giving waters to the trees and crops they planted. Others preferred to dwell beside the narrow sea; the eastern shores of Dorne are more forgiving than the southern, and soon many small villages arose, sustaining themselves on fish and crabs. The more restless of the First Men pushed onward and made homes for themselves in the foothills south of the Red Mountains, where storms moving north were wont to drop their moisture, creating a fertile green belt.

The foothills on the southern side of the Dornish mountains are a fertile green belt. The desert is further south. So no, going through the Princes Pass, through the mountains, will not bring you to the sands of Dorne.

The sands of Dorne are a thing - its a reference to the arid desert areas that cover 75% of Dorne. Arguing that there must be sand somewhere in the mountain pass is pure sophistry aimed at avoiding admitting you were wrong and your original point has no validity. 

Quote

Those who climbed farther took refuge amongst the peaks, in hidden valleys and high mountain meadows where the grass was green and sweet.

These are the 'Stonier' Stoney Dornish (as opposed to the ones in the foothills), with their hidden valleys and high mountain meadows where the grass is green and sweet. Not an arid desert. This is the terrain of the Princes Pass, the Red Mountains of Dorne - at least the ones on the northern east-west spine where the Princes Pass is located (because this comes from the FM settlers settling the green belt as they headed north from Dorne, and 'those who climbed further' into the mountains = more northern).

Quote

Only the bravest and the maddest dared to strike out inland across the deep sands. A few of these found water amongst the dunes and raised holdfasts and castles on those oasis; their descendants, centuries later, became the Lords of the Wells. But for every man who stumbled on a well, a hundred must surely have died of thirst beneath the blazing Dornish sun.

Most Dornish rivers are in full flood only after the rare (and dangerous) rainstorms. The rest of the year they are dry gullies. In all of Dorne, only three rivers flow day and night, winter and summer, without ever going dry. The Torrentine, arising high in the western mountains, plunges down to the sea in a series of rapids and waterfalls, howling through canyons and crevasses with a sound like the roar of some great beast. Rising from mountain springs, its waters are sweet and pure, but dangerous to cross, save by bridge, and impossible to navigate. 

Yep, the Torrentine is a fast and dangerous river, non-navigable, and unsafe to cross. I couldn't find this originally, and challenged you on it. I failed to search for an additional spelling. You provided this quote, for which I thanked you, absorbed the information (all of it), and incorporated the information into into my mental picture and adapted my argument from it. You should do something similar.

In part, you were right, as I have acknowledged. The Torrentine is a difficult and dangerous river. But there's also information there contradicts your theory, that I've pointed out, that you continue to ignore.

There are bridges over the Torrentine. Passage over them is safe. And Bridges mean roads, or trails.

The movement of people and (small) armies, the participation in Dornish social, political and military life together with those who are on the opposite side of the South-North Red Mountain Spine are further indications that there are (many) unnamed roads and trails through various parts of the Red Mountains, definitely at least some east-west across the south-north spine. 

All this I have provided you textual reference for.

14 hours ago, Melifeather said:

I'm refusing to acknowledge any of your points, because you have none.

That the Princes Pass leads to a green belt at the southern end, not a desert, is not a fact or a point? 
That there are bridges over the Torrentine is not a fact or a point?
That Stoney Dornish from the west side of the mountains (and Torrentine) participate readily in the social, cultural, political and military life of the eastern said of the mountains is not a fact or point?

 

Lets put a few things together shall we?

1. There are bridges over the Torrentine.
2. High Hermitage is the dwelling of a cadet branch of the Daynes, so there must be a route from Starfall along the Torrentine up to High Hermitage at least.
3. Blackmont is even deeper (further north from High Hermitage into the mountains, on the other side of the Torrentine.
4. The Blackmonts of Blackmont are noted participants in the traditional Dornish Marcher fighting, and in the formation of the Princedom of Dorne under the Martells. They are bannermen of Yronwood (Southern Boneway, foothills of the red mountains, Sea of Dorne) along with with Houses from Kingsgrave (Princes Pass), Sandstone (eastern sands of Dorne), the Tor (southern coast of the Sea of Dorne) and Wyl (Northern Boneyway, Sea of Dorne) (not necessarily a complete list).

4. Shows that there are definitely unnamed routes, trails, roads or passes between the eastern and western sides of the Red mountains, at least up north, if not down south. House Blackmont on the western side of the spine are bannermen to House Yronwood, on the far side of the mountains, at the coast. And fought with the Yronwoods against the Martells.

I'd lay long odds that at least one of the bridges across the Torrentine lies on a path between Blackmont and their nearest neighbours, High Hermitage. This is not absolutely required though, just a probability.

So by the textual references and canonical maps there seems to be a reasonable land route from the Princes Pass, or somewhere close to either end of it, across the mountains to Blackmont, or High Hermitage, across a bridge, or several, over the Torrentine, and down to Starfall. Not a route you'd take an army through (to many defensible bottlenecks at best, impassable areas for wagons/supplies at worst) probably, but nothing particularly difficult for a small party with an excess of horses.

Against that you have "the mountains are difficult and the Torrentine is dangerous unless you use one of the bridges".

14 hours ago, Melifeather said:

You accuse me of using an absence of evidence as evidence when it's you that has no evidence! 

You have evidence of some difficulties in certain areas/ways. You extrapolate that out to near-impossibility. You then use the absence of direct evidence of ways to overcome these difficulties as evidence that they can't be overcome.

However, I've shown you evidence that there are ways to overcome these difficulties, and that people in the region do regularly overcome these difficulties.
Its not direct, explicit evidence, but its very clearly 'evidence', and very clear, as evidence, that you are wrong.

14 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Where did you learn this twisting logic? From watching the Trump impeachment inquiry? You haven't provided any evidence that there are passes, roads, or trails that lead from the Prince's Pass down to Starfall.

I have provided evidence that there are routes - passes roads or trails, from the west side of the mountains to the east. They are clearly not the impassable barrier you claim.
I have provided evidence that the Torrentine can be crossed safely. Despite its dangerous nature, its not the impassable barrier that you claim.

Your claims otherwise are themselves evidence for all to see.

14 hours ago, Melifeather said:

You claim the fact that there is a bridge used to reach Starfall as your needed proof that this is confirmation of a trail over the mountain.

I never said anything about a bridge to Starfall. The world book speaks of bridges (it would be 'save by the bridge' if the option was singular) over the Torrentine, not explicitly to Starfall.
There possibly is a bridge to Starfall, I don't know, I haven't postulated or assumed such. In fact, I actually mocked your argument about Starfall being impossible to get to even if Ned got across the mountains because its on an island in (at the mouth of) the river by paraphrasing GRRM's words about Ashara not being nailed to Starfall throughout the war - they have boats you know.

13 hours ago, Melifeather said:

There is actually no text that even places the tower of joy in the Prince's Pass. Not even the World Book mentions nor identifies where the tower of joy lies. The only reason some readers believe it's located in the Prince's Pass is due to a map drawn by Jonathan Roberts using GRRM's sketches. I understand GRRM signed off on the project including the locations, but I still have my doubts. Does anyone know of an SSM where GRRM confirmed the location of the tower of joy?

Yep, we didn't really have much clue, other than being "far to the South" (from Kings Landing) and visibly close to the Red Mountains, until ADwDs was published. 

But if it doesn't fit your narrative, despite being published under GRRM's name and copyright in ADwDs, it just doesn't exist, even as evidence, let alone proof. Got it. Again.

[Lady Dyanna]

15 hours ago, Melifeather said:

You will have to remind me of this debate. Do you have a link?

Ummmmm. Think I had that argument with you on TLH under this name  I’ve been IP blocked for years last I checked, but it’s in one of the forensic files. Maybe the prologue or chapter 1, but I can’t remember. 

[Melifeather]

29 minutes ago, LynnS said:

If you recall, the marriage contract in question makes no mention of Dany at all.  This is according to Barristan Selmy, although Dany accepts some clause in the contract that binds her when Quentyn presents it.  So I don't think Dany was ever in Braavos during that negotiation.

Quote

 

The Merchant's Man - ADWD chapter 6 suggests differently:

That was before Prince Doran had summoned him to the Water Gardens. And now the most beautiful woman in the world was waiting in Meereen, and he meant to do his duty and claim her for his bride. She will not refuse me. She will honor the agreement. ...

 

Who made the agreement if not Oberyn and Willam Darry?

[Lady Dyanna]

15 hours ago, Melifeather said:

What's the little rhyme? If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas. 
 

Hmmmm. Sounds like a whole lot of ifs and buts. 

15 hours ago, Melifeather said:

He chose to attack my... it wasn't even a full-fledged theory so much as an expressed doubt that Ned took an overland route to Starfall. I provided supporting evidence - the rugged terrain, the mountains and cliffs, and the dangerous conditions of the river described as a "beast". He countered my evidence with... guesses, suppositions, and maybes, which do not refute my evidence. He doesn't have to believe me, but if you're going to start an argument with someone over something you don't agree with, you should at least provide some evidence as to why you don't. 

To me it seems like you are both doing the same thing to one another. IMHO there’s nothing wrong with disagreeing with someone and voicing that opinion. But that is all that either of you have at this point. Opinions based on incomplete evidence. Sometimes you just need to agree to disagree. 

[Melifeather]

36 minutes ago, corbon said:

This point was hammered and hammered and hammered during the 'no roses at ToJ' argument. It was utterly ignored then and you're doing it again now.

I don't recall being involved in a "no roses" discussion. It must have been a long time ago, because I have no recollection. 

You are not adding anything new to this topic - revising after I went back and reviewed some of it - at least this time around you have taken the time to present evidence, but I still believe your only purpose is to berate and badger me, and for that I'm just not interested in continuing our discussion. 

[Melifeather]

12 minutes ago, Lady Dyanna said:

Ummmmm. Think I had that argument with you on TLH under this name  I’ve been IP blocked for years last I checked, but it’s in one of the forensic files. Maybe the prologue or chapter 1, but I can’t remember. 

Oh, Lady Dyanna! I didn't realize I was having a conversation with you! You tricked me with the Blue Eyed Wolf Girl name, you naughty wench!

Tomorrow when the new Heresy is officially open on its anniversary day, please bring whatever you recall about the black ice discussion. I've changed my mind on a number of theories since I was a member of Last Hearth, so it would be interesting to learn what the bone of contention was about.

[Lady Dyanna]

12 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

A possibly interesting development:

http://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2019/11/18/bring-me-my-pipe/

Doesn’t one of us say that EVERY SINGLE TIME this man visits New York? I mean my last theory was that he would release BOTH books before the GoT series finale. Didn’t happen. Not sure that I believe it will ever happen at this point. And tbh the show ending has dampened my enthusiasm. If that’s the way it ends I might need to consider at all the time I shave spent analyzing  these books as a waste of time as the ending was completely predictable after all. 

[corbon]

18 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

I don't recall being involved in a "no roses" discussion. It must have been a long time ago, because I have no recollection. 

You are not adding anything new to this topic - revising after I went back and reviewed some of it - at least this time around you have taken the time to present evidence, but I still believe your only purpose is to berate and badger me, and for that I'm just not interested in continuing our discussion. 

Still no acknowledgement that there is any flaw with any statement by you.

You don't leave any option but to berate and badger. I would rather move on elsewhere it, but you'll just maintain your flawed head-canon and bring up the same flawed arguments again in the future.

Can you acknowledge these facts?

1. The Princes Pass area is green and fertile (as green and fertile as mountains get at least), not dry and arid and sandy.

2. There are bridges over the Torrentine

3. The Red Mountains of Dorne are not impassable from East to West

[Lady Dyanna]

12 hours ago, LynnS said:

I'm of the same mind.  I think she is helping her although some on the forums find her a suspicious figure.  She wears a mask disguising her identity both from Dany and the reader.  Is she really from Asshai or is she like Mirri Maaz Duur or Melisandre who have studied magic in Asshai?  She speaks the common tongue without an accent and that may place her origins in Westeros. 

She seems to know something about glass candles and how to use them.  This seems to be how she communicates with Dany "by other means".  So this gives her knowledge of the here and now;  specifically when she warns Dany about the pale mare, Kraken and Dark Flame, Mummer's Dragon and the Sun's son etc. etc.

And she seems to know something about Dany herself and what she must do; where she must travel.  North to Vaes Dothrak to pass beneath the shadow of the mother of mountains and touch the light.  

It's all very cryptic.  My wildest guess is that Quaithe is Alleras/Sarella, who may know something about the prophecy and glass candles from Marwyn and may have travelled to meet her on his instructions.  Acolytes  are required to fashion a mask, a rod and a ring out of various materials as they progress in their studies.  One of which is wood. 

Marwyn is someone I don't trust and he is curiously, not mentioned by Quaithe as someone who will come to her.  Sarella may have an agenda of her own, as indicated by the Prince of Dorne, when he decides to leave her in place, at the Citadel.   Supposing that she is there on his instructions to learn what she can about the prophecy.  Dorne would likely have an interest in protecting Dany.

I'm also curious about Quaithe's mask.  It's a red lacquered mask and this reminds me of the insignia on the shield of the Knight of the Laughing Tree; a red face on a wooden shield.

When Quaithe first gives Dany her strange travel instructions; it's early on in the story and there is no context to understand what it means.  By the end of Dance, there is a bit more context.  She is have to go back to Vaes Dothrak before she can go forward,  She needs an army.  But she must also pass beneath the shadow and touch the light.  This may have something to do with Dothraki prophecy of uniting the Khalasars.  But also her vision in the house of undying of a line of crones bowing before her.  I suspect that this is where she will be given knowledge of the past, of Asshai.  Touching the light in other words.  So some mystery involving visions.  Something that will give her purpose.  I suspect this involves a confrontation with Volantis where the slaves are waiting for her to free them.  So go north before going south.  But how does she go south?  She has to go back east to Mereen and resolve the business there first.  Her dragons are on the loose and who know what Victarion and Benerro have been up to.  I suspect Benerro will be in the driver's seat and may have taken one of the dragons back to the Great Red Temple.  If so, Dany will certainly confront the Great Red Temple as well.  

Before she can go to Westeros, she will need to collect enough ships to transport her Khal across the narrow sea.  To do this, she will have to travel along the eastern seaboard of Essos and take what she needs.  So travel east before going west.    From Volantis to her allies in Dorne,  

We should also consider Aemon's fevered words:  The sphynx is the riddle, not the riddler." If Sarella is the Sphynx and Quaithe is the riddler are they same person? Does Sarella have more than one disguise?   

I need to put some more thought into what you just said. I really like how you pulled in the Citadel and maesters with the mask. To me though, Sarella is both too young and too nailed to the ground to be Quaithe. Is it possible that this is just another ripple effect? That there was another female that WAS at the citadel in the time of Robert’s Rebellion  and now we are seeing it again? 
 

Alternatively is it possible that this is a more of a mirror image this time? When I see the color red it makes me think of the houses that have red in their house colors. Two most prevalent being the Targaryens and Lannisters. And both have potentially missing males. Red is also associated with the Tully’s but not of the bright variety. 

[Lady Dyanna]

8 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Your words caused me to wonder...what if Quaithe is also Daenerys? Going off the theory that every Brandon Stark is the same Brandon reborn, what if Quaithe is one choice Dany made and she’s hoping to change the future by encouraging her reborn self to take a different path? Far fetched I know, but it would explain some things.

Interesting idea even if it is far fetched. Definitely shows the heart in conflict with itself. I think it more likely, however that it be a missing Targaryen. Are All of the ones that we assume to be dead actually dead? Could it be one of them? Or alternatively Gerion Lannister or a child of his?

[LynnS]

39 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Who made the agreement if not Oberyn and Willam Darry?

Well yes and the Sealord of Bravos but it's Doran Martell's contract.  Dany is not mentioned though.

[Lady Dyanna]

15 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

Can we please keep real life politics out of Heresy? I don't see that ever having a happy ending.

 

Hey Pot, this is the kettle....

[Lady Dyanna]

8 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

Maybe Quaithe is literally a figment of Mad Dany's imagination?

I’m going to go with no. 

[Lady Dyanna]

8 hours ago, LynnS said:

I think I'll stick with Quaithe/Sarella on this one.  It's a question of glass candles and who has access and the opportunity to use them.,

And I agree with you that the Maesters should be at the top of that list. 

[LynnS]

7 minutes ago, Lady Dyanna said:

I need to put some more thought into what you just said. I really like how you pulled in the Citadel and maesters with the mask. To me though, Sarella is both too young and too nailed to the ground to be Quaithe. Is it possible that this is just another ripple effect? That there was another female that WAS at the citadel in the time of Robert’s Rebellion  and now we are seeing it again? 
 

Alternatively is it possible that this is a more of a mirror image this time? When I see the color red it makes me think of the houses that have red in their house colors. Two most prevalent being the Targaryens and Lannisters. And both have potentially missing males. Red is also associated with the Tully’s but not of the bright variety. 

Hey Lady Dyanna, you're back.  Hooray!  Given that I don't know much about Quaithe's age, I'm not ready to dismiss Sarella.  She's nailed to the Citadel now but was she before AFFC.  Marwyn must certainly have known about the dragons early on.  Either by glass candle or by reports from sailors and taverns he frequents. I don't think it's out of the question that he sent the Dornish Sphinx to make a connection.  It's also entirely possible that Quaithe is just Quaithe.  LOL  But I think a Dornish connection would make sense. 

[LynnS]

4 minutes ago, Lady Dyanna said:

And I agree with you that the Maesters should be at the top of that list. 

Is it possible that Quaithe is another one of Marwyn's students?  We've got Mirri Maaz Duur and Qyburn so far.  I'm guessing that the candles have only been burning since the red comet appeared.

[Lady Dyanna]

7 hours ago, LynnS said:

I'm not sure that this is what Quaithe is telling her.  Dany is obsessed with going home though.  She dreams about the house with the red door and lemon tree.  This is an early childhood memory of the only home she has known.  I discussed this a while ago and came to the conclusion that the house with the red door is located in Lys and not Braavos as she had been told. 

It's also curious that she dreams of the red door in one of her dragons dreams, except in this instance, home is the Dothraki Sea, perhaps the natural habitat of dragons.

So the red door is a strong early memory, perhaps even associated with the red doors at Dragonstone where she was born.  Her strongest memory of home is from her early childhood, a place of security.  So she longs for it.  But I don't think she has any idea where her home should be.  She had no memory or strong connection to Westeros.  She only knows what Viserys has told her.  He is the one who associates Westeros with home, not Dany.

I agree with the idea that Viserys is the one that sees Westeros as home. But we are making an assumption that Dany’s strongest memory of home is what SHE associates with home. Sometimes home is not a place. It can be more a state of being. Think of when we tell a visitor to make themselves at home. What do we mean by that? Are we literally asking them to move in with us? Or are we encouraging them to do what is most comfortable for them? Isn’t it possible that Quaithe is instructing Dany on how to get to the place where she is most comfortable within herself and being herself? 

[Melifeather]

1 minute ago, corbon said:

Still no acknowledgement that there is any flaw with any statement by you.

You don't leave any option but to berate and badger. I would rather move on elsewhere it, but you'll just maintain your flawed head-canon and bring up the same flawed arguments again in the future.

Can you acknowledge these facts?

1. The Princes Pass area is green and fertile (as green and fertile as mountains get at least), not dry and arid and sandy.

2. There are bridges over the Torrentine

3. The Red Mountains of Dorne are not impassable from East to West

I'll probably regret replying back, but here goes...

1) With regards to the Prince's Pass, your evidence is thus:

1 hour ago, corbon said:

The more restless of the First Men pushed onward and made homes for themselves in the foothills south of the Red Mountains, where storms moving north were wont to drop their moisture, creating a fertile green belt.

I would argue that the wording mentions the foothills south of the Red Mountains. The Red Mountains do run east and west, but they also run north and south. The Prince's Pass is a north and south passage along a north and south section of the range therefore the Prince's Pass is on an eastern side. I don't believe the passage applies to all of the foothills, but rather a very particular section that runs along the east/west portion. It's the section of the range where the Boneway comes through from Summerhall.

2) I agree the passage I provided stated that the only way to cross the Torrentine is to go over a bridge. 

3) I remain skeptical that the north/south section of the range is passable by crossing over it from east to west.

[Lady Dyanna]

7 hours ago, LynnS said:

Ok. I'm going to go with no on this one.  If she was a figment of Dany's mad mind, she would be the only one who could see and hear Quaithe.  Dany's bloodriders do in fact see her as well.

Jinx. And thanks for providing further evidence to support it.