Heresy 227 and the Great Turtle

[Queen Allyria]

Don’t forget. Prophecy will bite your prick off every time. 

[Queen Allyria]

3 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

More clickbait entertainment:

https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1204267/Winds-of-Winter-update-Game-of-Thrones-George-RR-Martin-interview-A-Song-of-Ice-and-Fire/amp

Hmmmm. This seems to support what I’m saying as well. The reason that it’s taking so long to write is because of the way that he chooses to write. With every choice that each character makes the story changes just a little bit. Now he needs to make the choices of the characters line up with all of their previous choices as well as get to the end point that he has chosen. Not exactly the easiest thing to do. It almost forces him to write in reverse. 

[LynnS]

2 hours ago, Blue Eyed Wolf Girl said:

But here’s where all of this runs into issues. Who is to say that the prophecy is exactly true. There are a million and one things that can happen to change the path that you are on. The biggest of all of them your own decisions. For example let’s use the prophecy of Danny going to Vaes Dothrak. What happens if she goes but decided not to give herself over to the crones. Or in fact, as been pointed out, she chooses not to go there either. At that point there are a million different ways in which the story might deviate. Maybe at that original point it’s destined that she meet Jon at the wall and end up as a tragic love story in a way. But if she hadn’t given herself over to the crones, then maybe it didn’t need to be that way. Maybe she goes on to live a happy and complete life. Even the same could be said of her returning to Westeros. That again opens a million new possibilities. The Martells already tried to bring her back home and failed. But what happens if someone else shows up to try to do the same thing? Does she make the same choices? Should she stay or should she go? For that matter, what if Jon hears of the threat from the north and decides that he needs to personally escort Danny and her dragons back to Westeros? What happens then? 

I think that Martin has foreshadowed it often enough for Dany to go to Vaes Dothrak as seems to be the likely outcome of her meeting the Dothraki outriders in DwD. That  she will end up being taken to the crones as all widows of khals are required to do also seems likely.  Once there, we start getting into Quaithe's prophecy an Dany's vision in the HoU.  We won't get the details on that until the book is published.   So we are into speculation at this point.  But it does seem likely to me that the crones will acknowledge her supremacy in some way and they set down the law in Vaes Dothrak, not the khals.  So this may have something to do with their own prophecies of which we know only a little a this point.   But I think Dany will end up ruling 100,000 screamers and return to Mereen with the Dothraki hoarde, enough to subdue any military standing against her.  However, we don't know what will happen when Victarion and Benerro arrive with a dragonbinder horn and two dragons on the loose.  I expect my expectations to be subverted on a number of plots.  But I do think Dany will have a purpose and a path after Vaes Dothrak which will include Qaarth and Volantis.  I don't see her going to Westeros any time soon.

[Melifeather]

11 hours ago, Blue Eyed Wolf Girl said:

Wait? Was I supposed to be convincing you? 
 

We are talking about an author that’s known for his realism in this particular series. Yet we expect him to go against the laws of nature and make time reverse? It just doesn’t happen that way. Yes, he might have written  similar nonsense at other times, but that doesn’t mean that he did this time. Life itself is a series of distorted echoes that change based on our own perception and decisions. 

GRRM calls himself a fanboy of comics, particularly Marvel comics. You can feel the influence of storylines from comics applied to characters in this story. The first stand out is Bran as Dr Strange with Bloodraven as his Sorcerer Supreme/Ancient One. The threat from the north has echoes of Dormammu and the Mindless Ones. What did Dr Strange do to defeat Dormammu? He used the Eye of Agamotto to place time in a continual loop. No matter how many times Dormammu killed Dr Strange, the time loop started over again and Dr Strange reappeared - similar to the multiple Brandon Starks.

4 hours ago, Blue Eyed Wolf Girl said:

But here’s where all of this runs into issues. Who is to say that the prophecy is exactly true. There are a million and one things that can happen to change the path that you are on. The biggest of all of them your own decisions. For example let’s use the prophecy of Danny going to Vaes Dothrak. What happens if she goes but decided not to give herself over to the crones. Or in fact, as been pointed out, she chooses not to go there either. At that point there are a million different ways in which the story might deviate. Maybe at that original point it’s destined that she meet Jon at the wall and end up as a tragic love story in a way. But if she hadn’t given herself over to the crones, then maybe it didn’t need to be that way. Maybe she goes on to live a happy and complete life. Even the same could be said of her returning to Westeros. That again opens a million new possibilities. The Martells already tried to bring her back home and failed. But what happens if someone else shows up to try to do the same thing? Does she make the same choices? Should she stay or should she go? For that matter, what if Jon hears of the threat from the north and decides that he needs to personally escort Danny and her dragons back to Westeros? What happens then? 

Quaithe keeps reminding Daenerys to remember who she is. Who is she exactly? Is she the type of ruler who must put on her floppy rabbit ears and listen to petitioners? Or is she a dragonlord-khaleesi? The choice between Hizdahr or Daario is symbolic of the choice Daenerys must make for herself. One is duty, but the other is her true passion.

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

I think that Martin has foreshadowed it often enough for Dany to go to Vaes Dothrak as seems to be the likely outcome of her meeting the Dothraki outriders in DwD. That  she will end up being taken to the crones as all widows of khals are required to do also seems likely.  Once there, we start getting into Quaithe's prophecy an Dany's vision in the HoU.  We won't get the details on that until the book is published.   So we are into speculation at this point.  But it does seem likely to me that the crones will acknowledge her supremacy in some way and they set down the law in Vaes Dothrak, not the khals.  So this may have something to do with their own prophecies of which we know only a little a this point.   But I think Dany will end up ruling 100,000 screamers and return to Mereen with the Dothraki hoarde, enough to subdue any military standing against her.  However, we don't know what will happen when Victarion and Benerro arrive with a dragonbinder horn and two dragons on the loose.  I expect my expectations to be subverted on a number of plots.  But I do think Dany will have a purpose and a path after Vaes Dothrak which will include Qaarth and Volantis.  I don't see her going to Westeros any time soon.

I agree with you much and more, but isn't Victarion and his fleet already in Slaver's Bay when Daenerys is found by Khal Jhaqo? I think Drogon could potentially keep Khal Jhaqo from dragging her to Vaes Dothrak, but will he? Drogo's spirit is also part of the dragons and he may resist Daenerys's orders and allow them to take her away.

[LynnS]

32 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

I agree with you much and more, but isn't Victarion and his fleet already in Slaver's Bay when Daenerys is found by Khal Jhaqo? I think Drogon could potentially keep Khal Jhaqo from dragging her to Vaes Dothrak, but will he? Drogo's spirit is also part of the dragons and he may resist Daenerys's orders and allow them to take her away.

Yah, I think this is where it becomes uncertain.  I'm not even sure that Victarion and Benerro will still be in Mereen by the time Dany arrives or what the state of affairs will be.  Because we really don't know what Benerro has in store for Victarion or what impact their arrival will have on the state of affairs.  I think Benerro is more invested in acquiring a dragon and this would be a place to kill off one off one of the dragons to even out the odds.  I expect some hellish transformation involving Victarion.   

[JNR]

10 hours ago, Mace Cooterian said:

Forgive my pessimism but the past couple of pages have not been positive on GRRM finishing the books within our life time, especially if as @JNR has proclaimed that Dany will be stuck in Essos at the end of TWOW. 

Well, I proclaimed that if she is, I won't buy the book. 

That would push ASOIAF to eight books, and thus, very likely, require close to two more decades of writing time on GRRM's part to finish the series.  That's just not a good idea.

But I'm still holding out hope that GRRM will do the logical thing instead. 

I hope he will confine ASOIAF to seven books, and in order to do that, will make TWOW the book in which Dany comes to Westeros and confronts Aegon.  This was after all his original plan for ADWD, which is why he planned to call it that in the first place (as it stands, the title makes no sense).

And welcome back to Heresy.

5 hours ago, Blue Eyed Wolf Girl said:

For example let’s use the prophecy of Dany going to Vaes Dothrak.

It's not even a prophecy. It's only a vision she had in the HOTU, and we were told outright that some of those visions never happened, and never would happen.

Quote

Sights and sounds of days gone by and days to come and days that never were.

IMO, it would be wise of GRRM to ignore that particular vision and get Dany's ass to Westeros via a  shorter path.

She's really going to have her hands full when she gets there and managing Dothraki hordes will be the least of it.  If they go to Westeros with her, they will quickly become an awkward mess, just like they were on the show.

[JNR]

5 hours ago, Blue Eyed Wolf Girl said:

Don’t forget. Prophecy will bite your prick off every time. 

So will the wiki, which is often inaccurate and written to endorse R+L=J.

Quote

Gorghan of Old Ghis once wrote that the ASOIAF wiki is like a treacherous woman. She takes your member in her mouth, and you moan with the pleasure of it and think, how sweet, how fine, how good this is . . . and then her teeth snap shut and your moans turn to screams. That is the nature of the ASOIAF wiki, said Gorghan.

 

[JNR]

Re Dany's HOTU visions, let's not forget this one:

Quote

A tall lord with copper skin and silver-gold hair stood beneath the banner of a fiery stallion, a burning city behind him.

This is usually interpreted as a vision of days that will never come: an alternate future in which Rhaego, Dany's son, is conquering the world.  Hence the copper skin and silver-gold hair.

I agree with that interpretation.  And the vision of Dany receiving homage from the crones at the Mother of Mountains could be from that same alternate future, and similarly, never come in canon.

Blowing a large number of chapters on sending Dany to Vaes Dothrak... and then bringing her back... would be a great way to guarantee this series goes to eight books.  I don't think GRRM should do it.   Every chapter is precious, if he really wants to finish ASOIAF in seven books, and he should allocate them as carefully as he can.

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, JNR said:

I hope he will confine ASOIAF to seven books, and in order to do that, will make TWOW the book in which Dany comes to Westeros and confronts Aegon.  This was after all his original plan for ADWD, which is why he planned to call it that in the first place (as it stands, the title makes no sense).

Daenerys, Viserys, and Quentyn already fulfilled the historic event called the Dance of the Dragons. 

When Rhaenyra lost the Dance of the Dragons to her younger half-brother Aegon II, he fed her to his dragon Sunfyre. Quentyn fulfilled the role of Rhaenyra being devoured by a dragon. He literally was the sun's son who was set on  fyre fire and consumed by dragons.

GRRMs short story The Princess and the Queen provides the details of the Dance of the Dragons. It features an elder daughter named Rhaenyra fighting over the line of succession against her younger half-brother Aegon II, who initially wasn't expecting to inherit and didn't even really want to be king until his mother convinced him that he had the better claim just because he was male.

Quentyn's older sister Arianne was concerned about the line of inheritance and her position as her father's heir, because she was female. Daenerys was Viserys's younger sister, and she never expected to become heir to the Targaryen throne - just like Aegon II - for two reasons: 1) she was the younger sibling, and 2) she was female. She and Viserys were the reverse of Rhaenyra and Aegon II. Rhaenyra's death cemented Aegon II's claim, while Viserys's death cemented Daenerys's.

The Dance of the Dragons 2.0 has already occurred. IMO that may have been Bloodraven's intention. He couldn't prevent the Prince that was Promised prophecy from unfolding nor prevent dragons from hatching, but he managed to keep it from happening within Westeros.

Young Griff may have the appearance of having a Targaryen claim, but he's fulfilling two different roles. First - He's symbolically "the Rhoynar" since he came to Westeros by way of the Rhoyne. And secondly - He's landed upon the eastern shore of Westeros under the support of the Golden Company like a Blackfyre Pretender. 

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

1 hour ago, JNR said:

Re Dany's HOTU visions, let's not forget this one:

This is usually interpreted as a vision of days that will never come: an alternate future in which Rhaego, Dany's son, is conquering the world.  Hence the copper skin and silver-gold hair.

I agree with that interpretation.  And the vision of Dany receiving homage from the crones at the Mother of Mountains could be from that same alternate future, and similarly, never come in canon.

Blowing a large number of chapters on sending Dany to Vaes Dothrak... and then bringing her back... would be a great way to guarantee this series goes to eight books.  I don't think GRRM should do it.   Every chapter is precious, if he really wants to finish ASOIAF in seven books, and he should allocate them as carefully as he can.

You're one of the best theorists on this site. I think you should read TWOW for the sake of theories at the least. There are always ways to read books without buying them.

[JNR]

12 minutes ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

You're one of the best theorists on this site. I think you should read TWOW for the sake of theories at the least. There are always ways to read books without buying them.

Thanks -- we'll see.  I didn't buy the World book, or the app, or Fire and Blood, or the fake-history novellas, and I'm not sure TWOW would justify my time either.

If GRRM spends nine years on a book with the goal of making it as good as possible... and yet Dany's still sitting in Essos at the end... it's going to seem like bad fanfiction to me.  I'm going to wonder how he can see that as the best possible story and what it means that he did.

I'm also going to look at the obvious future at that point. Let's see... ten more years to finish ADOS around 2030, another ten on the eighth book to finish it circa 2040.  Now GRRM's well over ninety.  Awkward.

Instead of all that, I think he should figure out a way to tell the remaining story in 150 chapters.  It can be done, but it does require him to think less like a gardener and more like an architect.

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

11 minutes ago, JNR said:

Thanks -- we'll see.  I didn't buy the World book, or the app, or Fire and Blood, or the fake-history novellas, and I'm not sure TWOW would justify my time either.

If GRRM spends nine years on a book with the goal of making it as good as possible... and yet Dany's still sitting in Essos at the end... it's going to seem like bad fanfiction to me.  I'm going to wonder how he can see that as the best possible story and what it means that he did.

I'm also going to look at the obvious future at that point. Let's see... ten more years to finish ADOS around 2030, another ten on the eighth book to finish it circa 2040.  Now GRRM's well over ninety.  Awkward.

Instead of all that, I think he should figure out a way to tell the remaining story in 150 chapters.  It can be done, but it does require him to think less like a gardener and more like an architect.

Unlike the World Book, etc, TWOW will at least be actual canon.

Kinda funny we are both hoping GRRM breaks his tendencies, but in different ways. 

You hope he finishes in 7 books, when just the preview chapters alone demonstrate he probably won't. Because he is still including chapters that don't really do much, that aren't really necessary. Thus ensuring he will almost certainly blow his word count yet again.

I accept that this is going 8 books, there's a metric crap ton left to wrap up, but hope he picks up speed after delivering TWOW. When it is far more likely he will continue to take 5-10 years between books because he'd rather write other easier books or travel extensively without writing at all.

Hopefully one of us gets what we hope for. I'm not sure I'll still be interested if it takes him 20 more years to finish. It's also likely the original Faith Militant won't be around to be gloated over by then either when it finally becomes printed canon that RLJ was a hogwash theory all along.

[Matthew.]

17 hours ago, JNR said:

I'm only saying I hope you and Snowfyre are wrong.  But if I had to put odds on it, I'd say you're right. 

I hope I'm wrong about that as well, and it'd certainly be nice to see GRRM at least occasionally make utilitarian writing decisions, rather than always following his muse.

To not be totally pessimistic, even if she were to go to Vaes Dothrak, there's a path here, if GRRM can achieve something of a return to form; while we often talk about the bloat in the later novels in terms of the number of plot lines and number of new POVs, they've also become bloated in per-chapter word count--I recall that some fan charted this years ago visually.

If he can reign himself in to the shorter, tighter chapters he was using in AGOT, and give Dany a disproportionate chapter count - similar to the way that Tyrion had 15 chapters in ACOK, far more than any other POV within that novel - then I think its possible for him to cover all of the ground he needs to cover.

Unfortunately, as you've noted, those Arianne TWOW chapters don't exactly inspire confidence that GRRM is going to reign in the number of travelogue chapters. If Dany I TWOW started with Dany already in Vaes Dothrak (with her character thoughts bringing us up to speed on any relevant things we 'missed' since we last saw her) there would be some hope; if Dany I is an entire chapter (or more than one, even!) of her moving from Point A to Point B... then, yikes.

[Melifeather]

Asserting that if the story doesn’t go the way that you think it should go relegates Winds as “fan fiction” is quite pompous and just plain ridiculous.

[Queen Allyria]

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

Asserting that if the story doesn’t go the way that you think it should go relegates Winds as “fan fiction” is quite pompous and just plain ridiculous.

Finally. Someone who actually makes sense. It doesn’t become canon because that was the original plan, but only when the story is written. That’s the only time you can tell for sure if the prophecies are true. For now we can only guess in the validity of the visions and prophecies. The story needs to be written before we can judge that conclusively. 

[Queen Allyria]

1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

I hope I'm wrong about that as well, and it'd certainly be nice to see GRRM at least occasionally make utilitarian writing decisions, rather than always following his muse.

To not be totally pessimistic, even if she were to go to Vaes Dothrak, there's a path here, if GRRM can achieve something of a return to form; while we often talk about the bloat in the later novels in terms of the number of plot lines and number of new POVs, they've also become bloated in per-chapter word count--I recall that some fan charted this years ago visually.

If he can reign himself in to the shorter, tighter chapters he was using in AGOT, and give Dany a disproportionate chapter count - similar to the way that Tyrion had 15 chapters in ACOK, far more than any other POV within that novel - then I think its possible for him to cover all of the ground he needs to cover.

Unfortunately, as you've noted, those Arianne TWOW chapters don't exactly inspire confidence that GRRM is going to reign in the number of travelogue chapters. If Dany I TWOW started with Dany already in Vaes Dothrak (with her character thoughts bringing us up to speed on any relevant things we 'missed' since we last saw her) there would be some hope; if Dany I is an entire chapter (or more than one, even!) of her moving from Point A to Point B... then, yikes.

Maybe. But, I think what you’re suggesting here is false. Just because it takes time for one person to decide and act, it doesn’t mean the same is true of the other characters. Put simply Dany is not Arianne and they might not act the same. 

[Queen Allyria]

2 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

Hopefully one of us gets what we hope for. I'm not sure I'll still be interested if it takes him 20 more years to finish. It's also likely the original Faith Militant won't be around to be gloated over by then either when it finally becomes printed canon that RLJ was a hogwash theory all along.

Since when is RLJ a hogwash theory. It’s one on the most strongly evidenced theories out there. But just because something has the most evidence it doesn’t mean that it’s correct. Otherwise Heresy would never have existed. It’s whole point is to look at lesser considered alternatives to those of the main stream. 

[Queen Allyria]

2 hours ago, JNR said:

Instead of all that, I think he should figure out a way to tell the remaining story in 150 chapters.  It can be done, but it does require him to think less like a gardener and more like an architect.

Exactly. 

[Queen Allyria]

3 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

You're one of the best theorists on this site. I think you should read TWOW for the sake of theories at the least. There are always ways to read books without buying them.

It could also be argued that if GRRM really wanted people to read his book, he would actually, ya know, write it. How long does one give him before they lose interest? He’s taking a pretty big risk right now the way he is working that he will continue to lose more and more readers as time goes by. But clearly he doesn’t have his focus on that. There’s something else more important to him. That’s writing the best story that he can. Just seems that there should be a way to do both. Write a good story AND give the reader the speedy writing time that they require. 

[Melifeather]

40 minutes ago, Blue Eyed Wolf Girl said:

Finally. Someone who actually makes sense. It doesn’t become canon because that was the original plan, but only when the story is written. That’s the only time you can tell for sure if the prophecies are true. For now we can only guess in the validity of the visions and prophecies. The story needs to be written before we can judge that conclusively. 

I have every confidence that GRRM will turn out a book that makes logistical sense and that every mystery he chooses to reveal will make sense in hind sight. Furthermore, it will become apparent that the hints were there all along even if no one picked up on them. One of his objectives is to surprise and delight his readers, and I think we will be both surprised and delighted - regardless if our personal favorite theories are confirmed or debunked.