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U.S. Politics: Dirt From Ukrainians, Bombs for Iranians, Shut Down Your Brainiums...


Jace, Extat

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1 hour ago, Triskele said:

Yes, this is one of the big unknowns about this whole situation and the calculation about to impeach or not.  

Some have said "He did this right after Mueller cause he felt untouchable."  If that's true, what else has happened since then?  But I"m not necessarily 100% sure that I'd buy this because it sounds so much like something Trump would have done at any juncture.  

I think this is the type of thing he would have done at almost any time (maybe not right in the beginning before he realized quite how much power he had when people (the so called adults in the room) were managing him a lot more closely).

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7 minutes ago, Darth Richard II said:

Haha yeah, pretty much what I was thinking of.

Speaking of South Park, Kyle came up with an idea to get all of the hispanics held by ICE out of custody. 

He converted them all to Judaism, so ICE had to release them. At that point ICE no longer felt comfortable having them in cages because “people might think we’re racist”

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Idle thought...

Trump craves adoration and favorable publicity above almost all else.

Trump cannot tolerate negative press coverage, period, as attested to by his numerous attacks against the 'Fake News Media.'  Lately, even Fox has run the occasional piece critical of Trump, earning his ire.

Additionally, Trump has also gone to extreme measures to keep items like his financial records/taxes hidden.

With an actual impeachment investigation, the negative news coverage will increase.  Likewise, the records he has gone to court to keep hidden very well could be released.  For Trump, that would probably be humiliating, especially once he realizes he can't stop such.

 

So, given this, maybe, just maybe Trump pulls a Nixon and resigns rather than face such humiliation?  Not assigning a high probability to this, but given his unbalanced nature, it probably shouldn't be ruled out.

 

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1 minute ago, ThinkerX said:

Idle thought...

Trump craves adoration and favorable publicity above almost all else.

Trump cannot tolerate negative press coverage, period, as attested to by his numerous attacks against the 'Fake News Media.'  Lately, even Fox has run the occasional piece critical of Trump, earning his ire.

Additionally, Trump has also gone to extreme measures to keep items like his financial records/taxes hidden.

With an actual impeachment investigation, the negative news coverage will increase.  Likewise, the records he has gone to court to keep hidden very well could be released.  For Trump, that would probably be humiliating, especially once he realizes he can't stop such.

 

So, given this, maybe, just maybe Trump pulls a Nixon and resigns rather than face such humiliation?  Not assigning a high probability to this, but given his unbalanced nature, it probably shouldn't be ruled out.

 

This is, I think, in line with my musings of the other day. It would be unwise to bet or even hope at all on such an occurrence, but the thing about irrational actors is that they tend to do shit nobody thought likely.

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4 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

This is, I think, in line with my musings of the other day. It would be unwise to bet or even hope at all on such an occurrence, but the thing about irrational actors is that they tend to do shit nobody thought likely.

I read one Vanity Fair article - "It's Management Bedlam: Madness at Fox News as Trump Faces Impeachment"  - which talks about how this recent news is causing Fox to prepare for a possible post-Trump future. If Fox News is willing to shift, not wanting to hitch their wagon to a loser, then maybe that will help sway some of their base. This will largely depend on the direction of Lachlan Murdoch.

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The Moderate Middle is a Myth - 538

I found this pretty fascinating, given the propensity on this to talk about what policy options in the middle would appeal to voters, I don't buy wholly into the arguments made in the article but it hits on something I hadn't really considered, and obviously the headline is a bit exaggerated but the data viz within the article is quite interesting.

Moderate, independent and undecided voters are not the same, and none of these groups are reliably centrist. They are ideologically diverse, so there is no simple policy solution that will appeal to all of them

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2 hours ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

I read one Vanity Fair article - "It's Management Bedlam: Madness at Fox News as Trump Faces Impeachment"  - which talks about how this recent news is causing Fox to prepare for a possible post-Trump future. If Fox News is willing to shift, not wanting to hitch their wagon to a loser, then maybe that will help sway some of their base. This will largely depend on the direction of Lachlan Murdoch.

Fox has been the top rated network for 17 years? I did not know that.

Fox’s role is all about defending it’s viewers from the people who hate them, and that’s the source of their power? I did not know that.

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16 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Fox has been the top rated network for 17 years? I did not know that.

Fox’s role is all about defending it’s viewers from the people who hate them, and that’s the source of their power? I did not know that.

Obviously, I have no interest in defending their bullshit claims. 

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Lots of people are getting ahead of themselves dancing on Trump's (political) grave.  I think the overwhelmingly most likely result of this is that impeachment numbers move up to nearly the same as Trump's approval numbers and then solidify.  Republicans fall in line and it's back to business as usual AKA defeating Trump in 2020.  In terms of realistic scenarios, the best I'm hoping for is more damaging stuff comes out to weigh him down over the next fourteen months.  But aside from moonshots like "maybe Trump just randomly quits" the only way we're getting rid of him is the 2020 election.

Democrats need to make sure they don't take their eye off the ball.  Biden and Warren both strike me as sub-optimal candidates, and yet a year from now I'm probably going to be canvassing for one of them. 

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3 hours ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

I read one Vanity Fair article - "It's Management Bedlam: Madness at Fox News as Trump Faces Impeachment"  - which talks about how this recent news is causing Fox to prepare for a possible post-Trump future. If Fox News is willing to shift, not wanting to hitch their wagon to a loser, then maybe that will help sway some of their base. This will largely depend on the direction of Lachlan Murdoch.

This is a good article, and short.  My favorite part was:

Quote

The ultimate referee of this fight will be Lachlan Murdoch. In recent months, Rupert’s oldest son has been holding strategy conversations with Fox executives and anchors about how Fox News should prepare for life after Trump. Among the powerful voices advising Lachlan that Fox should decisively break with the president is former House speaker Paul Ryan, who joined the Fox board in March. “Paul is embarrassed about Trump and now he has the power to do something about it,” an executive who’s spoken with Ryan told me. (Ryan did not return a call seeking comment.) But a person more sympathetic to Trump has told Lachlan that Fox should remain loyal to Trump’s supporters, even if the network has to break from the man.

The idea of Paul Ryan leading a push to turn Fox News against Trump strikes me as almost poetic.  Regardless, Ryan will probably fail, Trump has never had much difficulty swatting him down. 

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Just now, Maithanet said:

The idea of Paul Ryan leading a push to turn Fox News against Trump strikes me as almost poetic.  Regardless, Ryan will probably fail, Trump has never had much difficulty swatting him down. 

Poetic? Not the word I would've chosen. I think laughable would be a more fitting word.

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1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Poetic? Not the word I would've chosen. I think laughable would be a more fitting word.

History is sometimes circular, but rarely so quickly.  Ryan positioned himself as the future of the GOP, but ignored the downsides of fomenting the base extremists through Fox News et al.  When the base started caring more about Trump's xenophopia and cultural grievances than Ryan's upper class tax cuts, he became marginalized.  When Trump proved to be building a cult of personality that didn't brook other styles of conservativism, he resigned. 

Now that the bill for Trump's corruption is coming due, he is (attempting) to use Fox News as the vehicle to usher him aside, in the same way that he himself was sidelined. 

But like I said, I fully expect he'll fail and Fox News will only abandon Trump when he's out of office.  Then his many, many failings will be part of the past and why do Democrats keep bringing that up? 

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