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NFL 2019: After A Quarter, Are They Who We Thought They Were?


Mr. Chatywin et al.

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26 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

To respond to you and @DMC, I get that your WRs aren’t that good, but if Sanders is not a significant upgrade worth what you paid for. The Pats trade is more justifiable because they will most likely be in the SB. I’m still not sure you guys will even win your division, trade or no trade. I think you guys are at least one year ahead of schedule, and you would have been better off using those picks on two potential starters and be smart in FA. Hell, you should have signed AB instead of making this trade. Maybe I’ll be wrong in the end, but to me it feels like a desperation move by a team that does not need to be thinking like that.

On PFF’s rating, Sanders this year is at 80. Our next best wr is ~ 67, and up drops steeply from there. It might be costly, and I agree we’re a young team and he’s not in it big picture. There are a lot of philosophical reasons I agree with you. I just think it’s reasonable and football more than any other sport is about Carpe Diem. 

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14 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Offer the Trump colored Kittens a first and a third for A.J. They’d probably do that considering they need a full teardown.

Obviously in a vacuum I'd prefer AJ, but his injury concerns are considerably more significant than Sanders', so I'm not sure giving up what's required - namely a first - is worth it.  THEN, they wouldn't have a pick til the 4th, which is..dicey.  At least now they still have their 1st rounder, and the 4th/5th swap is basically a wash as long as the Broncos continue to suck.

16 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Also if Sanders leaves in Free Agency the 49'ers will get... a 3rd round compensatory pick. So waddaya know?

Yeah I'm not sure how the comp picks work - in fact I'm not sure anybody does based on some light googling, but based on the discussion among the commenters at the blog I frequent, he's probably only gonna net a 4th or 5th.  Still, not too shabby.

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Mike Brown wouldn’t trade AJ, anyway. It would make too much sense. 

But if somehow the offer was too good to refuse, I would love to see Green get a chance at a ring. He’s my favorite player we’ve had since Chad Johnson, and not only has he carried Andy Dalton for years, he’s always been a class act. 

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4 hours ago, DMC said:

Obviously in a vacuum I'd prefer AJ, but his injury concerns are considerably more significant than Sanders', so I'm not sure giving up what's required - namely a first - is worth it.  THEN, they wouldn't have a pick til the 4th, which is..dicey.  At least now they still have their 1st rounder, and the 4th/5th swap is basically a wash as long as the Broncos continue to suck.

Yeah I'm not sure how the comp picks work - in fact I'm not sure anybody does based on some light googling, but based on the discussion among the commenters at the blog I frequent, he's probably only gonna net a 4th or 5th.  Still, not too shabby.

Re: the 4th/5th, I mist admit I temporarily forgot about comp picks. So there will be more of a difference. 

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6 hours ago, James Arryn said:

On PFF’s rating, Sanders this year is at 80. Our next best wr is ~ 67, and up drops steeply from there. It might be costly, and I agree we’re a young team and he’s not in it big picture. There are a lot of philosophical reasons I agree with you. I just think it’s reasonable and football more than any other sport is about Carpe Diem. 

I'm honestly not sure how you grade a WR with a terrible QB, but I don't deny he probably becomes your best WR. And I do agree it's definitely a good sign to see that your franchise is going for it all. I just remain skeptical that this was the way top go. I guess only time will tell.

6 hours ago, DMC said:

Obviously in a vacuum I'd prefer AJ, but his injury concerns are considerably more significant than Sanders', so I'm not sure giving up what's required - namely a first - is worth it.  THEN, they wouldn't have a pick til the 4th, which is..dicey.  At least now they still have their 1st rounder, and the 4th/5th swap is basically a wash as long as the Broncos continue to suck.

 I didn't know they were already down picks, so that does change things somewhat as I'm a big fan of trading out of the first to get more picks in the 2-4 rounds range. It's worth noting though that Green is on the last year of his deal, and since the Bengals need to rebuild, perhaps he could have been had for less than a first rounder.

Also, on the injury concerns front, I'll let you decide how much you trust these links:

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/aj-green/4691

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/emmanuel-sanders/3438

(I've never used this site, but I would agree with it that Sanders is way more at risk for injuries)

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Yeah I'm not sure how the comp picks work - in fact I'm not sure anybody does based on some light googling, but based on the discussion among the commenters at the blog I frequent, he's probably only gonna net a 4th or 5th.  Still, not too shabby.

Agreed. I just ignore it until the draft and get excited to see if my team gets any. It's like finding that lone onion ring in your order of fries, not that I eat fast food much at all these days.

5 hours ago, Nictarion said:

Mike Brown wouldn’t trade AJ, anyway. It would make too much sense. 

But if somehow the offer was too good to refuse, I would love to see Green get a chance at a ring. He’s my favorite player we’ve had since Chad Johnson, and not only has he carried Andy Dalton for years, he’s always been a class act. 

What would be a fair offer to you given that he's older and about to be a FA?

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32 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

(I've never used this site, but I would agree with it that Sanders is way more at risk for injuries)

I've never seen that site before either, but it seems to be vastly over-weighting the amount of injuries as opposed to the seriousness of prior injuries.  Fact is, Sanders played 40 games from 2016-2018 while Green played 35.  More importantly - and why I mentioned it - is Green still hasn't played this season, still hasn't even started practicing yet, and the reports I've seen say he's not going to play til after the deadline.  Considering they're both rentals, I'm comfortable describing Green's injury risk for the rest of the season as significantly higher than Sanders'.

32 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Agreed. I just ignore it until the draft and get excited to see if my team gets any. It's like finding that lone onion ring in your order of fries, not that I eat fast food much at all these days.

Pretty sure the NFL's method for distributing comp picks is this:

 

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45 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

What would be a fair offer to you given that he's older and about to be a FA?

Sanu is only a year younger and brought back a 2nd with one more year left on his deal, and AJ when healthy is on another level than him. So I’d say at least a 1st. 

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17 minutes ago, DMC said:

I've never seen that site before either, but it seems to be vastly over-weighting the amount of injuries as opposed to the seriousness of prior injuries.  Fact is, Sanders played 40 games from 2016-2018 while Green played 35.  More importantly - and why I mentioned it - is Green still hasn't played this season, still hasn't even started practicing yet, and the reports I've seen say he's not going to play til after the deadline.  Considering they're both rentals, I'm comfortable describing Green's injury risk for the rest of the season as significantly higher than Sanders'.

I think the site is heavily leaning on the last injury Sanders suffers, which is still one of the few remaining career killer injuries lots of guys can't come back from. That doesn't seem to be the case with Sanders, but I know it would scare a lot of people off. Your criticism of Green's current health though is fair. Who knows how bad it is? I could believe both that it was more severe than initially reported and that he's just playing it up because who wants to risk injury when you're about to be a FA on this trash team.

Also, what season of SP is that from? I haven't watched in ages, but that clip seems vaguely familiar. 

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3 minutes ago, Nictarion said:

Sanu is only a year younger and brought back a 2nd with one more year left on his deal, and AJ when healthy is on another level than him. So I’d say at least a 1st. 

I get the logic, and he will be remembered as an all time great on your team so you're not selling him for cheap unless you're doing him a favor. Thing is though if you want a first, you're going to have to allow Green and the team to negotiate a deal before the trade because a first for a one year rental isn't worth it . The other issue that jumps out is his currently salary and how to make him fit under the cap. Good chance the Bengals would need to eat a contract the Niners are trying to dump, which is fine if you're not going to do anything meaningful this year.

I actually feel bad for Bengals fans this year. Miami is clearly tanking, so their fans know what they're getting and they want the prize at the end of that tunnel anyways. OTOH, as far as I can tell the Bengals are actually trying, leaving a veneer of hope for their fan base.

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9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Also, what season of SP is that from? I haven't watched in ages, but that clip seems vaguely familiar. 

The ep is called 'Margaritaville' and is the third of season 13.  2009 - which is obvious considering the episode's subject.

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32 minutes ago, Nictarion said:

Sanu is only a year younger and brought back a 2nd with one more year left on his deal, and AJ when healthy is on another level than him. So I’d say at least a 1st. 

No chance the Bengals get a first for AJ Green.

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There's the chance Miami's perfect season may be matched in a year when the fish also finish with a perfect record.     

The Bills are 5-1.     If this continues people may have no choice but to take notice.       Meanwhile the Ravens will bang,  and they won' t stop until someone with a whistle tells them to,  like in a lesbian scene.

The hitting in the Clippers / Lakers game reminded me of football more than an NBA game.    The two sports are converging.   NFL teams can't tackle during practice now either.   And twisting testes or kicking people in the junk is limited, respectively, to when you're at the bottom of a pile trying to recover a fumble or, in basketball, when you're Draymont.   

The Rams will bounce back, so it's important to use the power of negative prayer to keep their resurgence to a minimum, starting now.  Calling all voodoo practitioners.   Target the Rams for 2019.

Well this has been a quick trip around the league, now back to talk of trading 1's for 2's and 3's and some guy.    I hope the niners win until they meet the Saints this year, so Breeze can feel good about retiring, and then next year niners all the way.  Then back into decline, though, because when a team stays good too long it's just annoying.    Pats.  They've actually stayed good for sooooo long that I stopped hating them and it came all the way back around to being fun to cheer for them again, especially in those years when only they can defeat an even more obnoxious team!  (Seattle)  (and so on...)    Plus, i couldn't detest Brady anymore after that week they mic'd him up and revealed that he talks like a 5th grader out on the field to his teammates.  On the one hand, it makes you go awwwww, how cute.  But on the other hand, he may be talking that way because of brain damage.  Either way, it made him less hatable. 

 New England has more stability and a history of showing they can go undefeated, while the niners are figuring out their own magic still and may have an inconsistent week or two coming up when they just drop a game and leave you scratching your head.  So I'd say Pats are the more likely team to go 16-0, but the niners seem to be fated for something here this season, like they have both God and Lucifer as regular viewers but don't need help from either of them as this team seems able to propel themselves across the finish line just fine.   It's going to get interesting.

 

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1 minute ago, Trebla said:

Um...wow. 

Does he have anything left in the tank?

If so, a 6th or 7th round pick is worth even just a little on a team that needs pass rush. They are on a bye so he gets plenty of time to get into the system. 

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2 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Who would have thought Josh Allen would be a better prop prospect than Mitch. Actually, All the QBs from the 2018 draft are better than him (not counting Rosen, but his situation has been so unfair).

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1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Who would have thought Josh Allen would be a better prop prospect than Mitch. Actually, All the QBs from the 2018 draft are better than him (not counting Rosen, but his situation has been so unfair).

Uh, lots of people.  Lots of evaluators thought Trubisky was shit when he was drafted.  That's why I loved how the Niners fleeced the Bears in that trade.  Of course, Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster haven't exactly worked out.  So, there's karma for ya I guess.

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