NFL 2019: After A Quarter, Are They Who We Thought They Were?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

You can only play who is in front of you. Barnwell did a great breakdown evaluating the QBs they've played, and his conclusion is that the QBs statistically are the equivalent of bad Andy Dalton when they don't play the Pats and Nathan Peterman when they do. They have not faced stiff competition, but that does not take away from the fact they are an all-time great defense through eight games. 

[DanteGabriel]

31 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

It's almost as if having a world-class defensive coach matters

That doesn't explain the mediocre to bad defenses they had in the first half of the decade. Belichick finally has the personnel to match his schemes.

[Kalbear]

Just now, DanteGabriel said:

That doesn't explain the mediocre to bad defenses they had in the first half of the decade. Belichick finally has the personnel to match his schemes.

My understanding was that last year Belichick wasn't calling the defensive shots like he is this year. I don't follow it closely, so I could be wrong.

 

25 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

You can only play who is in front of you.

Sure, and who the Pats have had in front of them has been pretty shitty.

25 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Barnwell did a great breakdown evaluating the QBs they've played, and his conclusion is that the QBs statistically are the equivalent of bad Andy Dalton when they don't play the Pats and Nathan Peterman when they do. They have not faced stiff competition, but that does not take away from the fact they are an all-time great defense through eight games. 

So are the 49ers. Per DVOA, apparently, they're essentially tied for 8th best ever. 

[James Arryn]

If you’d told me the Niners would be without 7+ starters for most of this stretch I might have thought 3-13 sounded grim but realistic.

[mcbigski]

Tomlin has job security, right?

<just noticed I'm approaching 4k posts.  Want to make the next one count.  Isn't it NHAW season, traditionally?>

[Jace, Extat]

After this he's gonna need secret security. The natives become restless.

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

So are the 49ers. Per DVOA, apparently, they're essentially tied for 8th best ever. 

Thank you, was gonna point this out.  Fact is, both traditional and advance statistics say the two defenses are virtually indistinguishable (and have a chance to be historically great).  Any assertion one is substantially better than the other is based purely on gut (and I guess, granted, the 19 INTs in 7 games, which is ridiculous - the Niners are tied for second at 10).

As for offense, that's tougher.  The Niners have a significant advantage with their dynamic running game - the Pats are averaging only 3.2 YPC as a team - but does that overcome Brady?  Jimmy G has been efficient so far, but that's not only in limited attempts - it's in very limited high risk attempts.  And he's still averaging an interception per game.  Against an elite defense like the Pats (again, with 19 INTs) - and in a game where the offense may have to throw it much more than usual - I'm really worried.  Gotta say, in a hypothetical matchup my head is taking the Pats by 3-6 points, even assuming full health for both teams.

As for comparing schedules, they've weirdly shared three opponents - Browns, Redskins, and Steelers.  But comparing the rest of their opponents, yeah, empirically you'd have to give the slight edge to the Niners.  But that's not counting the goddamn Brady and Belichick factor.

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Funny thing is they are exactly who we expected them to be in the preseason, however, I don't think enough people that this front seven would be this overwhelming. 

This sentence is kind of confusing, but generally, I'd say I was expecting very big things from the DL this year.  Not this great, but pretty close.  The Niners' two LBs (Alexander and Warner) weirdly consistently get poor PFF grades, but I've watched every game and both of them have been solid in my eyes.  Alexander has exceeded my expectations and I love his energy.  The secondary has far exceeded my expectations - Witherspoon and Moseley have both looked like they could be long-term pieces and Ward has looked great as the center fielder since coming back.  He's already probably put together the most impressive stretch of his career (which is more of an indictment on his injury proneness).  

Offensively, the running game has obviously exceeded expectations, but the receivers haven't even been able to meet their low expectations.  All in all it's pretty much a wash, so the O is generally what I expected.

[Altherion]

Thus far, the Patriots have played: the Steelers (currently 2-4), the Dolphins (0-8), the Jets (1-6) twice, the Bills (5-2), Washington (1-7), the Giants (2-6) and the Browns (2-5). In other words, they've played one team with a winning record (Buffalo) and not a single other team with more than 2 wins with the season just about half over. This is not to say they're not scary -- they've been scary for a long time -- but the winning streak is definitely influenced by the quality of the opposition.

Interestingly enough, as DMC pointed out, the 49ers have also played the Steelers, the Browns and Washington and in addition, they've played the Buccaneers (2-5), the Bengals (0-8), the Rams (5-3) and the Panthers (4-3). Thus, their schedule is slightly stronger than that of the Patriots, but not by much: they've faced two teams with winning records and nobody else with more than 2 wins. Again, this doesn't mean that they're not scary, but (just as with the Patriots), I'd wait until they face the significantly tougher second half of the schedule before pronouncing any aspect of them historic and the like.

[Kalbear]

If I were a betting man, I'd say that the Seahawks are going to get roflstomped by the 49ers. They'll probably do well in the 4th quarter after Wilson says 'fuck this running for nothing bullshit' and does a couple of OMG amazing drives, but by then they'll be down like 23-3 or something and it'll be too late.

[DMC]

28 minutes ago, Altherion said:

I'd wait until they face the significantly tougher second half of the schedule before pronouncing any aspect of them historic and the like.

That's fair.  I'm very excited to see how they do playing 6 good to great teams in their last 8 games, but it could all go to shit.  Just hoping Juice Check can get back by the first Hawks game (or at least the Packers game).

[Jaime L]

This is the worst 3rd and 20 defense I've ever seen in my life. 

Dolphins, be cool. You'll get the #1 pick...just making the tanking a little less explicit. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Step 7:

1. Take a surprising early lead

2. Look competitive for a while as you slowly lose said lead

3. Completely crap out at the end, ensuring the loss

 

The perfect tank job.

#PrayForTua

[Nictarion]

32 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Step 7:

1. Take a surprising early lead

2. Look competitive for a while as you slowly lose said lead

3. Completely crap out at the end, ensuring the loss

 

The perfect tank job.

#PrayForTua

I don’t think Tua will go #1 at this point. If the Bengals end up with the top pick I want Joe Burrow or Chase Young. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

26 minutes ago, Nictarion said:

I don’t think Tua will go #1 at this point. If the Bengals end up with the top pick I want Joe Burrow or Chase Young. 

You’re over thinking it. Tua is two years younger and has been consistently better, plus we know he has big game moxy. He’s the top prospect, but it won’t matter because you’ll have your pick of those two with the second overall pick after you win the week 16 TankBowl.

[Jace, Extat]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Step 7:

1. Take a surprising early lead

2. Look competitive for a while as you slowly lose said lead

3. Completely crap out at the end, ensuring the loss

 

The perfect tank job.

#PrayForTua

#TurnDownForTua 

#LeveragingForLawrence

[aceluby]

19 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

The Pats are scarier. Through eight games I believe they are the best defense, ever. Just look at this one aspect. They've given up two passing TDs against scoring two TDs on 19 Ints. That's insane. They've also scored nearly as many Defensive TDs (6) as they've allowed (7). 

What I don't get is how last year they were average on D, they didn't improve their roster, and boom, they're all time great. It's not fair with these guys.

That tends to happen when you play the worst offenses in the league.  They are very confident, but they haven't really had to play anyone of substance yet.  I'll wait to crown them after their next 4 games.

[Trebla]

So Andy Dalton gets benched, Aqib Talib traded to the Dolphins as a salary dump, and the Jets are reportedly interested in trading Jamal Adams and several teams said to be interested. My beloved Cowboys are said to be one of the teams and Adams is interested in going to Dallas. He would require a haul of picks, though, but boy it would be nice to have a real playmaker at safety again. Dallas hasn't had one since Roy "Horsecollar" Williams, 

[DanteGabriel]

This phenomenon where historically inept teams trade the few good young cheap players they've drafted (Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jamal Adams) to competitive teams in order to stockpile draft picks that they'll probably fuck up is like payday lending come to the NFL.

[Bronn Stone]

If I were still a Chargers fan, I would be looking in this draft for the replacement of Philip Rivers.  I don't think his game will age well and that it will go fast when it goes.  Of course, I thought he'd be done by now.

[DMC]

4 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

You’re over thinking it. Tua is two years younger and has been consistently better, plus we know he has big game moxy. He’s the top prospect, but it won’t matter because you’ll have your pick of those two with the second overall pick after you win the week 16 TankBowl.

Chase Young is getting a lot of hype right now.  Seems like the current consensus is he's the #1 guy on the big board.  Now, Tua has an advantage in that the two teams overwhelmingly likely to get the first pick (Dolphins and Bengals) are probably gonna be looking for a QB, but I wouldn't anoint Tua just yet.