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MLB Post/Off-season: Houston, We Have a Problem


Myshkin

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And tell you what, this heart of the Nats order (3-4-5) has been clutch in all of the big postseason games.

Rendon and Soto homered off Kershaw in Game 5, Kendrick delivered the grand slam. Facing elimination last night, Soto homers to take the lead and Rendon collects 5 RBIs. In a low-scoring Game 7 tonight, Rendon homers, Kendrick homers for the lead and Soto gets a couple of hits and an RBI.

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2 minutes ago, Triskele said:

What a terrible called 3rd strike on Correa.  Even worse on the overhead replay than I expected.  Huge.

Yeah, that was a ball by a mile. Balls and strikes tonight have been a bit iffy.

Zimmerman had an at-bat earlier in the game where an inside and an outside pitch were both called strikes which would have made the plate about twice as wide as it should've been.

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Wtf are the Astros doing?  If you have the best pitcher in baseball, why do you have him warm up and then not put him in?  Manager is just badly overthinking this, and the nats have blown it open without even having to go through Cole.

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Brilliant win, well done Nats. So glad they won and that the Astros back office don't get to celebrate.

Astros will have a lot of introspection about this game - they were in complete control of the first two thirds of this game. Scherzer stranded 9 baserunners, working his way out of jams pretty much every inning while Greinke was retiring the side in order time and time again. As soon as Greinke was removed, the game changed completely. Credit also to Corbin for holding the Astros scoreless over what could have been a tense and tough innings 6, 7 and 8.

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I'm not even enough of a baseball fan to be called a fairweather fan.  I am literally a "if Washington is playing in Game 7 of the World Series, I'll watch half the game" fan.  So if this comes across as uninformed analysis, that's because it is.

But watching from the 4th inning on, I felt like the Astros had complete control, then the manager blew it.  Grienke was giving the Nationals a ton of problems, and had a low pitch count.  He gives up one home run in the 7th, and the manager gives him the quick hook.  That's ok, just put in Cole, the likely Cy Young winner, and he'll hold things together for the final three innings.  It's tight, but winning the WS isn't supposed to be easy.  There's every reason to think they'll win that game. 

Instead went with these pitchers:

Grienke, Not Cole, Not Cole, Not Cole, Not Cole, Not Cole, game over. 

Does anyone else find this totally inexplicable?  It's like the manager wanted to treat this like a regular season game and save Cole for the next start.  Or extra innings or something?  Just baffling.

Congrats to the Nats fans out there! 

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56 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Grienke, Not Cole, Not Cole, Not Cole, Not Cole, Not Cole, game over. 

Does anyone else find this totally inexplicable?  It's like the manager wanted to treat this like a regular season game and save Cole for the next start.  Or extra innings or something?  Just baffling.

But do we know for a fact that Cole felt ready?  I haven't read anything about it, but what if it's the case that he just couldn't get "fully loose" or something?  Would you really want to run a guy out there who does not feel "ready to go?"

I mean, I don't know, I'm not really trying to justify the moves or non-moves, but it at least seems plausible to me that Cole just might not have seemed like a good "option."  I thought I recalled it being said that Cole had never pitched on short rest, but I might be misremembering.

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Just now, .H. said:

But do we know for a fact that Cole felt ready?  I haven't read anything about it, but what if it's the case that he just couldn't get "fully loose" or something?  Would you really want to run a guy out there who does not feel "ready to go?"

I mean, I don't know, I'm not really trying to justify the moves or non-moves, but it at least seems plausible to me that Cole just might not have seemed like a good "option."  I thought I recalled it being said that Cole had never pitched on short rest, but I might be misremembering.

Postgame interviews with Cole indicate that he felt ready.  When asked about it, the Astros manager said that he wanted to put Cole in if they tied the game or took the lead.  As if putting Cole in when they were down 3-2 going into the 8th or down 4-2 going into the 9th wouldn't be worth it?  Not to mention that he could have put Cole in when Grienke gave up the home run and the Astros were still ahead 2-1 in the 7th.  I don't get it, that explanation makes no sense at all. 

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1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

Postgame interviews with Cole indicate that he felt ready.  When asked about it, the Astros manager said that he wanted to put Cole in if they tied the game or took the lead.  As if putting Cole in when they were down 3-2 going into the 8th or down 4-2 going into the 9th wouldn't be worth it?  Not to mention that he could have put Cole in when Grienke gave up the home run and the Astros were still ahead 2-1 in the 7th.  I don't get it, that explanation makes no sense at all. 

Well, in retrospect, yeah, it doesn't make sense, since they never tied it or took the lead.  But now reading Hinch's comment, that he wanted Cole to pitch the 9th and close it out, I guess it sort of does.  Except, of course, the fact that it never happened.

Obviously, in retrospect, it's "easy" to say that Cole would have pitched better than whoever did.  But we can't know that.  Is it plausible?  Sure.  Likely?  Sure.  Given?  No.

Now, given how things did go, it was likely a mistake to have "reserved" Cole only for the 9th.  I don't think it's a bad idea in-itself, but it was a bad idea once the game was in the state it actually was.  Now, Hinch didn't say it explicitly, but I don't think they planned on having Cole pitch more than one inning.  I don't think, for whatever reason, he wanted to put him in with a man on.  Which is why he didn't immediately go to him after pulling Grenkie.  In other words, I think Hinch really wanted exactly 3 outs from Cole.  He wouldn't get it there without Cole sitting and I don't think Hinch wanted that.

Was it greedy?  Maybe.  But we get the benefit of knowing that Harris isn't going to get the job done.  ESPN gives the Astros a 73.8 chance to win with Harris in.  Is it that much greater with Cole?  Maybe, maybe not, I don't know how they calculate it.  Even so, part of that calculation should be factoring in who is still in the 'pen.  You've likely "got to" have confidence in someone other than Cole from the 'pen, because you need 11 outs from there and only 3 are going to come from him.

I don't know, I mean, I think it is "fair" to second guess the choices made.  But I don't know that there was necessarily a clearly "better" one to be "made in the dark" there.

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3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I'm not even enough of a baseball fan to be called a fairweather fan.  I am literally a "if Washington is playing in Game 7 of the World Series, I'll watch half the game" fan.

That's exactly how I watched the Caps title.

When the Nats were getting mowed down by Greinke getting the weakest of weak contact and it looked like he was going to cruise to an easy CG shutout, the only thing that kept me from breaking out my collection of don't-kill-myself books was the recurring thought that "there's no way this team goes down so meekly." It's a thought I've had before in my long not-so-illustrious DC sports fan career but this was the first time I actually believed it. 

Rendon-Soto-Kendrick are the 3 most clutch hitters I've ever seen. The last time it went through their part of the lineup they came back against Hader in the WC game. The last time it went through their part of the lineup they hit back to back HRs to tie the game against Kershaw in NLDS game 5 and win it later with the Kendrick GS. And the last time it went through that part of the lineup last night Rendon homers, Soto walks and Kendrick hits a two run bomb. This against a pitcher who until this point they couldn't even get it out of the infield against. Never seen anything like it. If one AB goes differently in any of those series, Nats very likely just add another heartbreaking playoff loss to their resume. 

And beyond that what an unbelievably gutty performance by Scherzer when he clearly didn't have his command. He flirted with disaster all night but for the most part made the critical pitch when he needed to and kept the Nats in striking distance long enough for the hitters to do their thing. Corbin's 3 innings were huge. And Strasburg was a deserving WS MVP. They needed every last pitch they could muster from their 3 aces to hide a shaky AF bullpen and got it.

All in all I can't believe it. I can't believe they overcame a 106 win Dodgers team and a 107 win Astros team that was the most loaded I've ever seen...both in dramatic fashion. I've never had the chance to root for a team I follow day to day bring home a championship. Feels like it opens a whole new world of possibilities of what a fan experience can be. Rendon and Strasburg might sign elsewhere now...but every member of this team is gonna be a legend in my book for the rest of their days. Going to really try to savor this because who knows if anything like this happens again...but man what a feeling. 

ETA: Also really happy for Thomas Boswell. Reading his column regularly in WaPo growing up is a big part of why I'm as big of a sports fan as I am. Always optimistic, always highlighting the wonder in sports. Baseball was always clearly his biggest passion. Glad he more than anyone got to see a baseball championship in DC. 

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4 minutes ago, .H. said:

I don't know, I mean, I think it is "fair" to second guess the choices made.  But I don't know that there was necessarily a clearly "better" one to be "made in the dark" there. 

I know that it is the easiest thing in the world to second guess a manager after things have gone wrong.  But I don't know why you would assume that Cole only had one inning in him.  He is only 29, and he last pitched on Sunday.  I'm not saying you start him, but asking him to go 2-3 innings seems extremely doable. 

And if you were saving him for the 9th, why didn't he put him in in the 9th?  Was he just giving up at that point? Because if he has one great inning in him, then getting through the 9th at 4-2 seems pretty damn important to the Astros survival.  If Cole comes in down 4-2 and pitches well, that gives the Astros a tiny bit of momentum, and there's the possibility that Cole could pitch for extra innings if they tie it up. 

I dunno, I'm not trying to be obstinant, but I just can't make that decision make sense.  You can argue about WHEN was the proper time to put Cole in.  But "never" is clearly, 100% the wrong answer. 

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23 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

But I don't know why you would assume that Cole only had one inning in him.

Well, it is based off Hinch's comment that he wanted to "only use him if we are going to win the world series and have a lead, he was going to close the game in the 9th."  Now, based off that, if Hinch felt he had 2 inning out of Cole, why would he say that?  So, I have no idea how many inning Cole actually "had in him" but it seems evident, from what Hinch said, that he had the notion that there were only 3 outs to get from Cole.  If he felt he had 6 outs to get from him, then he would likely have said something to the effect of Cold would pitch the 8th and the 9th.

How much Cole actually "had," well, there is no way to know that.

23 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

And if you were saving him for the 9th, why didn't he put him in in the 9th?  Was he just giving up at that point? Because if he has one great inning in him, then getting through the 9th at 4-2 seems pretty damn important to the Astros survival.  If Cole comes in down 4-2 and pitches well, that gives the Astros a tiny bit of momentum, and there's the possibility that Cole could pitch for extra innings if they tie it up. 

I dunno, I'm not trying to be obstinant, but I just can't make that decision make sense.  You can argue about WHEN was the proper time to put Cole in.  But "never" is clearly, 100% the wrong answer. 

Well, yeah, from here I agree.  At that point, I think Hinch must have felt "pot committed," he had made a questionable call that worked out badly, then compounded that by not reasessing what the better option would be in that new circumstance.  Rather, he held the initial line, which turned out to never be the case.

Although I still slightly disagree that Cole would have pitched extras though.  Again, from Hinch's statement about only pitching Cole to close the game, it seems exceptionally unlikely that he, for whatever reason, felt like he had more than 3 out available from Cole.  Rightly or wrongly, well, we can't ever know.  Even so, it's still not a particularly great strategy to try to win extra innings before you get to them.  So, yeah, I still agree that his decisions were not good at all.

I think there is some "sense" in them, a priori, but not "the best way to win the game" sort of sense, post 2-run HR.  Of course, if the Astros actually hit and make it, say, 4-3 and Cole closes out the 9th, people are praising Hinch's patience in using Cole most likely.  The fact that the Astros bullpen (and hitters, for that matter) just didn't get anything done makes Hinch's subpar strategy all the more glaring.

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Rendon put on the Clutchiest of all Clutchy post-seasons. What an amazing stat - in the 7th or later of Post-season elimination games for the Nationals, he had seven at-bats. He had a walk, three homers, and two doubles. And obviously Soto has just way too much poise in the playoffs for a damn fresh 21-year-old.

I'm glad for the Nationals. Likable team. Also takes a bit of the sting off the Cardinals being totally destroyed by them having won it all.

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