MLB Post/Off-season: Houston, We Have a Problem

[Paxter]

It is interesting that the WS winner came from the NL after the AL produced three 100+ winning teams (two of which were absolutely loaded and I expected to win it all). Those clutch players at Washington really came to the fore. 

[DMC]

I was just talking to a friend about how after the Nats beat the Dodgers a couple weeks ago, we both agreed they were probably "the team of destiny," and we should have put money on it at the time.  Oh well.

As for Hinch's decision not to use Cole, I think it's an entirely fair criticism.  I overwhelming tend towards thinking the media/fans' second guessing and Monday morning quarterbacking is stupid in all cases.  And especially in baseball managers' cases when it comes to pitching changes.  But you HAVE to put him within the 9 innings of a Game 7.  Especially if you're down.  No reason to "save" him for some hypothetical extra innings.

As long as he was ready - which by all accounts (including his own) he was - that's inexcusable and all scrutiny is entirely warranted.  Only rational explanation I could possibly think of is you don't wanna piss him off since he's a free agent if you want to re-sign him.  Thing is though, once they took on Greinke's contract it's pretty clear they're not gonna re-sign him.  So use that fucking arm until it falls off.  Really don't get it.

[The Last Storm]

Astros have been posted as 2020 WS favorites. I agree if they can resign Cole, but as a Met fan I can confidently say the NL East is the best division in baseball going forward. Lot of young talent in this division. Soto, Acuna, Alonso to name a few. Hopefully our new coach has more of a clue than Calloway and our bullpen can get sorted out.

[Myshkin]

Jaime L is happy, and since Jaime L is the lesser portion of me, I am happy.

[Maithanet]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

As long as he was ready - which by all accounts (including his own) he was - that's inexcusable and all scrutiny is entirely warranted.  Only rational explanation I could possibly think of is you don't wanna piss him off since he's a free agent if you want to re-sign him.  Thing is though, once they took on Greinke's contract it's pretty clear they're not gonna re-sign him.  So use that fucking arm until it falls off.  Really don't get it.

Not only that, but it was pretty clear in his postgame presser that he wanted to play (as any elite competitor would).  To warm up in the bullpen and then have a different pitcher put in when it's 2-1 in the 7th, or when it's 2-3 in the 7th, or when it's 2-3 starting the 8th, or when it's 2-4 starting the 9th, says that your manager doesn't really trust you.  If I were Cole, I would be pissed as hell that I didn't get a chance to come in and try to save the day. 

Obviously, winning the WS is a lot more important than anybody's feelings.  But there's no argument that letting him sit would avoid "pissing him off".  Quite the opposite. 

Again, I'm no baseball expert, but from watching a bit of that press conference, and his use of the past tense about his time with the Astros, I think it is very, very unlikely that he is in Houston next year.  Less than 5%. 

[Jeor]

I'm not too fussed on second-guessing Hinch's non-use of Cole. I think his decision to remove Greinke so quickly was the real mistake and then his use of relievers afterwards compounded it. Going to Cole would of course in one sense (described above) be the sensible thing to do, but if it didn't work out, he would have been second-guessed as to why didn't he use his specialist relievers. Harris had a pretty good postseason run up until then, Hinch also used Osuna his closer. Cole might have been lights out in one start, but he was also far from it in Game 1. You have a specialist closer like Osuna there and you use Cole instead of him?

Anyway, some big free agents here in the offseason. Not the least of which are Rendon and Cole, pivotal on opposite sides of the World Series.

[Jaime L]

38 minutes ago, Jeor said:

I'm not too fussed on second-guessing Hinch's non-use of Cole. I think his decision to remove Greinke so quickly was the real mistake and then his use of relievers afterwards compounded it. Going to Cole would of course in one sense (described above) be the sensible thing to do, but if it didn't work out, he would have been second-guessed as to why didn't he use his specialist relievers. Harris had a pretty good postseason run up until then, Hinch also used Osuna his closer. Cole might have been lights out in one start, but he was also far from it in Game 1. You have a specialist closer like Osuna there and you use Cole instead of him?

Anyway, some big free agents here in the offseason. Not the least of which are Rendon and Cole, pivotal on opposite sides of the World Series.

It was a relief to me when he took Grienke out at 80 pitches. The speed with which he took out Grienke in both games he pitched despite being dominant implies a real fear that he turns into a pumpkin around 90 pitches. It's always amazing the difference between that type of ace and the Scherzer/Cole type who can struggle all night and is still out there grinding at 120 pitches. 

Harris was the best RP on either team and had been dominant all postseason. Can't blame that decision (assuming Grienke indeed was about to implode which who knows). He also hit his spot against Kendrick...a part of the plate that Howie had seen 50 pitches and had only managed 5 hits all singles. But last night he went the other way with it and was able to elevate it and it got out. Howie Kendrick, professional hitter.

The one I question is Osuna who though he's the closer is far from dominant. Really liked the Nats chances to tack on runs once he came in. That's where you have to go Cole IMO. Or use Osuna to get out of the inning and then go Cole. Even if 3-2 was inevitable, had Hinch made different decisions they could've kept it there instead of 6-2 potentially. And the difference in pressure on Corbin/Hudson would've been massive. Hudson jogging in for the 9th with a 1 run lead might've given me a stroke. 

[Maithanet]

13 hours ago, Jaime L said:

The one I question is Osuna who though he's the closer is far from dominant. Really liked the Nats chances to tack on runs once he came in. That's where you have to go Cole IMO. Or use Osuna to get out of the inning and then go Cole. Even if 3-2 was inevitable, had Hinch made different decisions they could've kept it there instead of 6-2 potentially. And the difference in pressure on Corbin/Hudson would've been massive. Hudson jogging in for the 9th with a 1 run lead might've given me a stroke. 

Exactly.  I can accept any individual decision on when to put in Cole, because I'm not a manager.  But when given 4 different situations and opportunities, you have to get him on the mound one way or another.  A 3-2 lead is a precarious thing.  Even 4-2 can vanish in a hurry.  Yet by the time the bottom of the 9th rolled around, it was 6-2 and just felt completely over. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

8 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Exactly.  I can accept any individual decision on when to put in Cole, because I'm not a manager.  But when given 4 different situations and opportunities, you have to get him on the mound one way or another.  A 3-2 lead is a precarious thing.  Even 4-2 can vanish in a hurry.  Yet by the time the bottom of the 9th rolled around, it was 6-2 and just felt completely over. 

Pitching lineups are predetermined. It's the managers job to decide when to make the changes though. I think what happened here is that the initial plan was not to pitch Cole, but the manager got nervous and had him warm up. Ultimately he went with the analytics when he should have trusted his eyes and known he needed his ace. 

Congrats guys on winning the title. After thinking about it a bit more, this Nats season is going to be one of the all time great sports stories ever told. Your season starts with losing the biggest star in your team's history, being counted out before a third of the games were played, and yet you went on a heater, went 5-0 in elimination games, all which you were down in at one point, and then proceeded to mow down one of the best teams I've ever seen, taking four in their house. That's some Hollywood s*** right there. Oh, and your team is old AF so a lot of vets finally got their chips. 

 

[James Arryn]

On 10/30/2019 at 11:40 AM, DMC said:

Yep, he has.  The way the public reacts to tiny samples with playoff numbers will always be silly.  What's particularly hilarious, though, is that the media still does it to - whereas the vast majority have shifted to be large proponents of analytics, they still can't grasp sample size during the playoffs.  David Price was horrible in the playoffs, until he wasn't.  Same with A-Rod.  It's really stupid.

What I find equally/more frustrating is the way obviously mitigating circumstances...understood as such at the time...get butterflied away if without them the narrative fits better. So you’ll have a guy ball out in the playoffs in the NBA, say, absolutely kill it and carry his team, only to lose to a better team with several guys balling out, but later that will all be forgotten if he’s a ‘can’t win big games’ guy. Or receivers will drop wide open passes on the numbers, everyone understands the qb threw a perfect ball, but a weak later guys who acknowledged same at the time are talking about interceptions being a qb problem or with that lazy ‘they all even out in the end’ bullshit. 

Pitchers are very susceptible to this because of the infrequency of their appearances but the profile on those few, so guys can make or break reps in extremely limited time. You mentioned a perfect example in Price, whose stock chart would read like a heart attack if you went by the depictions, and almost never do people riding either crest take responsibility for their role in generating the illusion itself. Best case they’ll give the guy props for ‘overcoming’ something about him that was only true because they said so in the first place. 

[Jaime L]

On 11/1/2019 at 4:10 PM, Tywin et al. said:

 Congrats guys on winning the title. After thinking about it a bit more, this Nats season is going to be one of the all time great sports stories ever told. Your season starts with losing the biggest star in your team's history, being counted out before a third of the games were played, and yet you went on a heater, went 5-0 in elimination games, all which you were down in at one point, and then proceeded to mow down one of the best teams I've ever seen, taking four in their house. That's some Hollywood s*** right there. Oh, and your team is old AF so a lot of vets finally got their chips. 

 

This was actually my thought too but wasn't sure if I was just being a mega homer thinking it. The two things I still can't wrap my mind around were the 5 comebacks in elimination games you noted and then the ultimate competitor Scherzer getting scratched for game 5 and miraculously recovering for a game 7 that he fucking grinded through to keep his team in the game, something that could be a 30 for 30 all its own. 

The closest analogue I can think of to this run actually just happened - the 2018-2019 Raptors. Another franchise that had known nothing but postseason misery, brings in a stone cold killer, then overcomes all opposition in the playoffs (often in insanely dramatic fashion) culminating in a Finals win over the most loaded team of the decade. And like those Raptors, this Nats group could be a one year deal...especially if Rendon/Strasburg end up signing elsewhere like Kawhi did. Could be the last hurrah of an old team that loaded up for one last run and miraculously brought home the title. Obviously I hope this is not the case...but even if it is, the 2019 Nats recasts the whole bittersweet decade into a true narrative. Like the struggle happened for a reason. 

[Argonath Diver]

Its definitely a fantastic championship to have experienced as Nats fans I'd say! You deserved every win. So many clutch comebacks.

When the Cards won in 06, it was mostly us falling into wins (Tigers pitchers averaging like 4 throwing errors a game wtf) so it felt kind of cringy despite the win. 2011 though we won a bunch of memorable series and I'll remember those moments when I'm senile. You guys have an even better story. Next year will be interesting with a lot of key pieces nearer to my age than Soto's.

[Jaime L]

On 11/2/2019 at 5:34 PM, Argonath Diver said:

Its definitely a fantastic championship to have experienced as Nats fans I'd say! You deserved every win. So many clutch comebacks.

When the Cards won in 06, it was mostly us falling into wins (Tigers pitchers averaging like 4 throwing errors a game wtf) so it felt kind of cringy despite the win. 2011 though we won a bunch of memorable series and I'll remember those moments when I'm senile. You guys have an even better story. Next year will be interesting with a lot of key pieces nearer to my age than Soto's.

Maybe the sum of the Nats postseason comebacks was greater but game 6 in the 2011 WS has to be the single greatest experience a fan can have. And if I was a Rangers fan, my soul would've left my body that night. 

[Maithanet]

The Nats are also generous champions.  They sent a championship bus to Philly, in case Bryce Harper was feeling left out.

[Jaime L]

34 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The Nats are also generous champions.  They sent a championship bus to Philly, in case Bryce Harper was feeling left out.

He did promise DC a title. It's the least we can do for delivering it for us. 

 

[Argonath Diver]

53 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Maybe the sum of the Nats postseason comebacks was greater but game 6 in the 2011 WS has to be the single greatest experience a fan can have. And if I was a Rangers fan, my soul would've left my body that night. 

Well, I certainly agree with you about game 6. That week was one of the best of my life. I was just trying to be humble haha. I think the Nats coming from such a bad start was great, and were written off by a lot of people before the WS began.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

On 11/2/2019 at 5:50 PM, Jaime L said:

This was actually my thought too but wasn't sure if I was just being a mega homer thinking it. The two things I still can't wrap my mind around were the 5 comebacks in elimination games you noted and then the ultimate competitor Scherzer getting scratched for game 5 and miraculously recovering for a game 7 that he fucking grinded through to keep his team in the game, something that could be a 30 for 30 all its own. 

The closest analogue I can think of to this run actually just happened - the 2018-2019 Raptors. Another franchise that had known nothing but postseason misery, brings in a stone cold killer, then overcomes all opposition in the playoffs (often in insanely dramatic fashion) culminating in a Finals win over the most loaded team of the decade. And like those Raptors, this Nats group could be a one year deal...especially if Rendon/Strasburg end up signing elsewhere like Kawhi did. Could be the last hurrah of an old team that loaded up for one last run and miraculously brought home the title. Obviously I hope this is not the case...but even if it is, the 2019 Nats recasts the whole bittersweet decade into a true narrative. Like the struggle happened for a reason. 

Nope, I don't think you're being a homer at all. It would actually be strange if you didn't feel that way. I'm not sure the comparison is a great one though. There are some overlaps, but it's not like they caught the Astros when half their stars were out.

[DMC]

The early decisions on opt-outs and extending qualifying offers over the past few days suggest the market is going to continue to be horrible for players.  Martinez didn't opt out, which ten years ago would have been mind-boggling.  The Yanks didn't extend Didi a qualifying offer - likely because he almost certainly would have taken that and they don't wanna commit that much of an AAV to their luxury tax.  Chapman also got a one year extension rather than opting out - another thing that'd have been unfathomable a few years back based on his age and performance.

As a Yanks fan, this is probably good news because now they can work out affordable solutions to fill the rest of their holes and still have room to go big after a starter or two.  But as a baseball fan - and general supporter of eliminating gross inequality and unfairness - it makes me pretty sick.

[Arch-MaesterPhilip]

13 hours ago, DMC said:

The early decisions on opt-outs and extending qualifying offers over the past few days suggest the market is going to continue to be horrible for players.  Martinez didn't opt out, which ten years ago would have been mind-boggling.  The Yanks didn't extend Didi a qualifying offer - likely because he almost certainly would have taken that and they don't wanna commit that much of an AAV to their luxury tax.  Chapman also got a one year extension rather than opting out - another thing that'd have been unfathomable a few years back based on his age and performance.

As a Yanks fan, this is probably good news because now they can work out affordable solutions to fill the rest of their holes and still have room to go big after a starter or two.  But as a baseball fan - and general supporter of eliminating gross inequality and unfairness - it makes me pretty sick.

I am sad to see Didi go, but I'm not sure they are going to put that savings towards a big starter. Joel Sherman was reporting that they are likely to spend between 20 and 40m. As far as starters go they are more likely to sign Wheeler than a Cole.

[DMC]

12 minutes ago, Arch-MaesterPhilip said:

I am sad to see Didi go, but I'm not sure they are going to put that savings towards a big starter. Joel Sherman was reporting that they are likely to spend between 20 and 40m. As far as starters go they are more likely to sign Wheeler than a Cole.

First, Joel Sherman is a ridiculously unreliable source.  I have no idea what they're gonna spend and neither does anyone else that's gonna publish it.  He's pulling that number out of his ass. 

Second, I don't think this necessarily means Didi is gone.  Probably, yeah, but it's still quite possible he takes a short-term pillow deal to stay.  We'll see how the market plays out, but by my estimation there's not many teams looking for a high-priced shortstop that, ya know, can afford it.

Third, yeah, I'm not too optimistic about Cole or Strasburg.  Wheeler, Bumgarner, Odorizzi?  More in play, that's what I was referring to.  Especially if they can save some money by dumping Happ, which is something Cash has done before by adding close-to-MLB (and therefore crowded out by the Rule 5 crunch anyway) prospects as a sweetener.