US Politics - I'm not orange I'mpeach

[Zorral]

Bedbug sending 2000 troops plus arms to Saudi has everybody very concerned, not only Israel.

 

[Corvinus85]

21 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Bedbug sending 2000 troops plus arms to Saudi has everybody very concerned, not only Israel.

 

wtf, the Saudis didn't help us on D-Day!!!

[Jace, Extat]

14 minutes ago, Corvinus said:

wtf, the Saudis didn't help us on D-Day!!!

They make bigly purchases at our gun stores, though!

[Guest]

1 hour ago, JEORDHl said:

Seeing reports that Turkey might've shelled a group of US Special Forces by accident [low whistle]

Confirmed by the Pentagon.

This is getting picked up fast by right-wing websites. 

[Jace, Extat]

HAHA! YES! THANK YOU ERDOGAN!!!

And thank y'all for your timely and sourced postings. I've been clicking on the funny pages every 15 minutes since Jeordhi's initial comment looking for confirmation.

[DMC]

Reading over this discussion on Biden's inevitable demise, I can't help but think of "the reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."  Now, I've been anticipating Biden's demise is inevitable as well, but I think it's time to accept the distinct possibility that this is developing into a two-candidate race, particularly with impeachment severely limiting any opportunities for the single digit candidates to break out. 

I mean, c'mon guys, have you looked at the polls?  Based on 538's list, six firms have reported national polls this month.  Biden leads by 18, 10, and 12 in three of them, and is only trailing by 3, 3, and 1 in the other three.  Now, if I was a betting man I'd definitely put my money on Warren as she's the one surging - and indeed according to RCP she's leading in the betting markets 52 to 19 - but we're now only four months out and Biden's support has been relatively stable since the beginning of July, or right after he took a hit following the first debate. 

Moreover, if you look at most polls in the three early states, he's still dominating SC and is neck and neck with Warren in IA and NH with Bernie a distinct third (particularly if you look at the RCP averages - he does look weaker in Iowa in a handful of recent polls RCP may not be counting).  It's time to accept that these numbers are probably fairly predictive unless there's some inflection point we can't anticipate right now.

Digging into the numbers, they look very (very) good for Warren, but also pretty good for Biden.  According to the latest FNC poll, Biden is the second choice of 13%, while Warren is for 24%.  When you combine first and second choice, they're tied at 45 while Bernie is at 34, Harris at 15, and Buttigieg at 13.  Looking at the Morning Consult poll, Biden is the top second choice of both Warren and Sanders supporters.  For Warren supporters it's Biden 26, Sanders 21, Harris 17.  For Sanders supporters it's Biden 31, Warren 27, Harris 7.  Also, for Biden supporters, it's Warren 30, Sanders 25, Harris 10 - that looks really bad for Harris btw.  In the YouGov poll, they ask which of the candidates you'd consider voting for (item 46, pg. 151).  That goes Warren 58, Biden 48, Sanders 40, Harris 32, Buttigieg 29. 

Further, the YouGov poll has an electability item (54, starts on pg. 169).  Among Dem primary voters, that goes Warren 64/15, Biden 63/17, Sanders 53/26, Harris 40/30, Buttigieg 35/31.  So, yes, at least according to that poll Warren has actually eclipsed Biden on the electability argument, which is great for her.  But he still has a distinct advantage against the rest of the field.  Alternatively, FNC has Biden's electability still dominant.  Item 24 has Biden 43, Warren 19, Sanders 15 on who Dem primary voters think has the best chance at beating Trump.

Finally (sorry I totally got into poll mode), while we don't know how the Hunter/Ukraine thing is going to play out, at least right now it is clearly not hurting him in the Dem primary.  Item 26 of the FNC poll has only 10% of primary voters saying it'd make them less likely to vote for Biden -- and 21% say it makes them more likely to vote for him!  Compare that to Bernie's heart attack, where 31% say less likely and 15 say more likely (which is..odd).  This is borne out in the YouGov poll (item 64, page 193), where 13% of primary voters view the allegations as legitimate compared to 71% that think it's a political smear.  Again, compare that to Bernie's heart attack, which 66% of Dem primary voters think is a legitimate issue while 21% do not.  I think those numbers for Bernie will dissipate over time, but just wanted to mention them because I was surprised they were so high.

Oh yeah, also this notion that Warren and Sanders are surging because they're viewed as the "legit" candidates on income inequality bears no empirical basis.  First, Dem primary voters care much more about electability than a candidate's values.  In the YouGov poll (item 50 page 163), electability beats shares your values 63-37.  Now, it is true that this disparity is driven by older voters, which helps explain their support for Biden (or perhaps vice versa), but it's not like those older voters aren't gonna be there come election day. 

Moreover, Dem voters are not saying income inequality is a key issue - in fact just the opposite.  This is a little difficult because "income inequality" is rarely an choice on "most important issue" items, but let's just use "the economy" as a proxy - if anything that should overestimate those that think income inequality is the most important issue.  Item 70 (235) of the YouGov poll has Health Care 24%, Environment 22%, and Economy 12% as the most important issue among Dem primary voters.  Hell, Gun Control is close to the economy at 8%.  The idea that Warren and/or Sanders are surging because they're the ones that really care about income inequality seems pretty clearly just projecting one's own opinion onto the electorate.

[JGP]

12 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Confirmed by the Pentagon.

This is getting picked up fast by right-wing websites. 

God. 

Horrible news, yet good news. We really are fucked, aren't we.

 

edit: Sorry about that, Jace. I don't really like linking to unverified twitter posts, even when news breaks there hella fast.

 

[Jace, Extat]

3 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

God. 

Horrible news, yet good news. We really are fucked, aren't we.

 

edit: Sorry about that, Jace. I don't really like linking to unverified twitter posts, even when news breaks there hella fast.

 

Oh, I didn't mean that as an indictment at you. I figured you'd have posted something if you had it, I just am not as tuned into the quicktime media and don't know where to look. The funny pages says no troops were injured though, so much ado about nothing I suppose.

[Zorral]

The people who have been fighting in our military over there are heartbroken, ashamed and very upset by what bedbug's done to the Kurds.  I have read over the months and years there is a fair amount of support for him in the military, though I have no way to gauge that support -- evangelicals, I suppose, but that was slipping even before this latest catastrophe, but if that is the case, that support is likely eroding.  As we learn from the histories of generals such as Caesar and even Alexander, even when an army, its men and officers adore their commander, they can mutiny when things get pushed too far -- meaning they are, as with Alexander's men in India saying this far and no further.

Which is good for 2020 too . . . .

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OK.  Now we know what that meeting between Barr and R Murdoch was about: Shep Smith gone, just like that.

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/10/trump-will-be-delighted-internet-shocked-shep-smith-is-out-at-fox-news-after-ag-barrs-meeting-with-murdoch/

[Jace, Extat]

5 minutes ago, Zorral said:

The people who have been fighting in our military over there are heartbroken, ashamed and very upset by what bedbug's done to the Kurds.  I have read over the months and years there is a fair amount of support for him in the military, though I have no way to gauge that support -- evangelicals, I suppose, but that was slipping even before this latest catastrophe, but if that is the case, that support is likely eroding.  As we learn from the histories of generals such as Caesar and even Alexander, even when an army, its men and officers adore their commander, they can mutiny when things get pushed too far -- meaning they are, as with Alexander's men in India saying this far and no further.

Which is good for 2020 too . . . .

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OK.  Now we know what that meeting between Barr and R Murdoch was about: Shep Smith gone, just like that.

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/10/trump-will-be-delighted-internet-shocked-shep-smith-is-out-at-fox-news-after-ag-barrs-meeting-with-murdoch/

Not to be antagonistic, but what evidence do you have that the soldja bois are discontent?

[fionwe1987]

3 hours ago, Simon Steele said:

I'm just responding in kind. You've presented nothing but conjecture about why Harris isn't taking hold in the polls. Everything except she's not a great candidate.

Learn to read, will you please? 

I think it's a little weird to say Harris did as well as Warren in the debates. Harris had a fabulous first debate. The second debate was less great, but fine. 

I think the third debate she was absolutely forgettable. She had those really badly scripted one liners that just didn't land. And...nothing else, that I can remember. Nothing that excited any kind of conversation, or resulted in any kind of media discussion in the days following.

I think in general, Harris has all the skills, background and charm to be a great nominee. Yes, she has some actually troubling aspects to her time as a Prosecutor, but its ludicrous to suggest she's the worst of the kind. 

That said, maybe she suffers from having her sister be her campaign manager. I'd imagine there are some things a sister won't tell you that a non-relatives would. And that something has to be that she needs to take positions that aren't calculated to theoretically please everyone. It ends up pleasing no one, because the "average Democratic voter" doesn't exist. That average is a composite of some very different political perspectives.

Beyond that, though, she absolutely does have a disadvantage because of the way her race and gender are viewed. Her stumbles, such as they are, are far far smaller than Biden's, but she lacks the cushion he does, or even the cushion Sanders has. And there's no way to view that except as a function of her being a black woman.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, DMC said:

Digging into the numbers, they look very (very) good for Warren, but also pretty good for Biden.  According to the latest FNC poll, Biden is the second choice of 13%, while Warren is for 24%.  When you combine first and second choice, they're tied at 45 while Bernie is at 34, Harris at 15, and Buttigieg at 13.  Looking at the Morning Consult poll, Biden is the top second choice of both Warren and Sanders supporters.  For Warren supporters it's Biden 26, Sanders 21, Harris 17.  For Sanders supporters it's Biden 31, Warren 27, Harris 7.  Also, for Biden supporters, it's Warren 30, Sanders 25, Harris 10 - that looks really bad for Harris btw.  In the YouGov poll, they ask which of the candidates you'd consider voting for (item 46, pg. 151).  That goes Warren 58, Biden 48, Sanders 40, Harris 32, Buttigieg 29. 

I wouldn’t have expect this at all. Sanders and Warren are the most ideological senators. Why would Biden be the second choice for their supporters?

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I wouldn’t have expect this at all. Sanders and Warren are the most ideological senators. Why would Biden be the second choice for their supporters?

Same reason Sanders somehow has 25% of Biden supporters - they're both well known and voters are comfortable with them.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

25 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Oh, I didn't mean that as an indictment at you. I figured you'd have posted something if you had it, I just am not as tuned into the quicktime media and don't know where to look. The funny pages says no troops were injured though, so much ado about nothing I suppose.

Lies! There are always ways to spin a situation!

Early word was that Erdogan ate Trump’s lunch on their phone call that led to Trump pulling out. I’ve see it reported a few places now that he straight up told Trump they’re going in so he better get his troops out. And then he did it. What a spineless coward. Not only is Trump directly responsible for every casualty, but he has also now signaled to a major world leader that he can be pushed around despite having the far superior military. Trump is WEAK!

[Zorral]

22 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Not to be antagonistic, but what evidence do you have that the soldja bois are discontent?

Articles, interviews and letters in the mainstream media such as the NY Times and WaPo.  The operative word this morning was 'heartbroken.'

Nor is this the first time military personnel have been heartbroken by the way the US has treated their allies on the ground in the Middle East, going back to GHB.

All you have to do is type into google -- U.S. Military soldiers Kurds Turkey Syria allies heartbroken devastated angry -- or a combo of those and other like terms, and you'll find stuff.  I, otoh, have to buy supplies to make dinner.

 

 

[DanteGabriel]

Shep Smith is leaving Fox News. He was their one legitimate journalist (Christopher Wallace gets half credit). Is it a coincidence or an indicator that News division has chosen to join hands with Opinion?

[Jace, Extat]

7 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

Shep Smith is leaving Fox News. He was their one legitimate journalist (Christopher Wallace gets half credit). Is it a coincidence or an indicator that News division has chosen to join hands with Opinion?

What does your heart tell you? Before you answer, remember that they don't have a heart.

[DMC]

14 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

Shep Smith is leaving Fox News. He was their one legitimate journalist (Christopher Wallace gets half credit). Is it a coincidence or an indicator that News division has chosen to join hands with Opinion?

Mean, it is possible he just finally got fed up - who could blame him?  That's basically his story (although of course this could just be him claiming I broke up with you):

Quote

“Recently I asked the company to allow me to leave Fox News and begin a new chapter. After requesting that I stay, they graciously obliged,”

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

36 minutes ago, DMC said:

Same reason Sanders somehow has 25% of Biden supporters - they're both well known and voters are comfortable with them.

Well sure, but from an ideological perspective Biden is rather different than Warren and Sanders. I had always just assumed that >90% of Sanders supporters would eventually go to her when he drops out.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

Mean, it is possible he just finally got fed up - who could blame him?  That's basically his story (although of course this could just be him claiming I broke up with you):

 

That book deal is going to be so $$$. He's been there forever and probably has the goods on everyone. I wouldn't be surprised if Wallace follows him sooner than later which would leave only Baier left on the news side, and it's a joke that he's even considered a news guy.