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Why does Balon Greyjoy want to attack the North?


Angel Eyes

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5 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

Absolutely.

1) The land is poorer in the North than in the Riverlands

 2) The size of the North means his garrisons would have to be too thinly spread or too localised

3) The Hoares took the Riverlands from The Storm King, so they had the locals all bending the knee and joining the cause. Balon was trying to take the North from Northmen

4) Harren held the Riverlands, which are perfect for rapid movement by boat, which Ironmen are good at. Balon took the North, which is slow going even if you have horses, which Ironmen are NOT good at.

 5) Harren was a Sevener (of sorts...) holding Sevener lands (mostly). Balon was a Drowned God's man, taking land from the Old Gods.

  

Basically, everything the Black Line got right, Balon got wrong. Yeah, sure Balon might have (tried to capture) more land than Harren. But ask yourself, is it better to have a ton of sand, or an ounce of gold?

I would also add that Balon choose to make his campaing during the winter... when all he would be able to do is sit on some castles and wait for hunger and cold to melt his army.

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17 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Theon solidified his fathers campaign, but even without him The North was firmly in the hands of iron born.

Rodriks army was small, and he wasnt a great commander anyway. Not even able to eradicate Dagmer

Theon made a miracle, and even this wouldn't save the campaing as Asha and Tywin tell us.

"To end this war before this war ends us. We have won all that we are like to win … and stand to lose all just as quick, unless we make a peace."

A fisherman may hook a grey leviathan, but it will drag him down to death unless he cuts it loose. The north is too large for us to hold, and too full of northmen.”

“Balon Greyjoy thinks in terms of plunder, not rule. Let him enjoy an autumn crown and suffer a northern winter. He will give his subjects no cause to love him. Come spring, the northmen will have had a bellyful of krakens"

 

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9 minutes ago, frenin said:

Balon  couldn't hold a territory as vast as the North anyway.

Yea, youve said that. I say he could and did because of the military and political atmosphere.

10 minutes ago, frenin said:

I'm talking only about the affairs in the North, even with Robb in the south, the North could and  would repel the Iroborns but the North own internal  affairs prevented them from that.

Could and would? Cuz they didnt. Well Stannis and Theon did after Balon died but their not northern.

Only the northern affairs, so rebellious Karstarks and Wildlings populating the Gift? The climate of the North has changed drastically since Robb left and died, the ironborn arent like public enemy number 1 like they used to be

15 minutes ago, frenin said:

 Moat Cailin  is not the only way to the North and  it's incredibly weak against attacks from the North, so that would be suicidal, if an army land in White Harbor or the coast is also suicidal.

It pretty much is the only way up north, and trying to beat ironborn in a game of ships is not the brightest idea

17 minutes ago, frenin said:

The Targs had dragons.

And then they didnt. Not all Westerosi are racists with no inclination to understand other cultures

19 minutes ago, frenin said:

There is a reason why no Andal  invader ever conquered the North.

Because of the old gods? Im pretty sure its because of Moat Cailan

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8 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Theon made a miracle, and even this wouldn't save the campaing as Asha and Tywin tell us.

"To end this war before this war ends us. We have won all that we are like to win … and stand to lose all just as quick, unless we make a peace."

A fisherman may hook a grey leviathan, but it will drag him down to death unless he cuts it loose. The north is too large for us to hold, and too full of northmen.”

Asha wasnt as ambitious as her father. Perhaps she didnt understand the gravity of Westerosi current events like Balon. 

Makes sense, kings have to think more more moves in advance then a captain

8 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

“Balon Greyjoy thinks in terms of plunder, not rule. Let him enjoy an autumn crown and suffer a northern winter. He will give his subjects no cause to love him. Come spring, the northmen will have had a bellyful of krakens"

 

Now Tywins ambitious lol. If he thinks that his friends Frey and Bolton will go easier on northern bellies, then he gave no thought to the consequences of the RW

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13 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Yea, youve said that. I say he could and did because of the military and political atmosphere.

He never conquered the North, he took some castles in the North, that's very diffent.

 

13 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Could and would? Cuz they didnt. Well Stannis and Theon did after Balon died but their not northern.

Only the northern affairs, so rebellious Karstarks and Wildlings populating the Gift? The climate of the North has changed drastically since Robb left and died, the ironborn arent like public enemy number 1 like they used to be

Cuz they all were minding their own business and  not helping much, how many men in White Harbor marched to retake Moat  Caitlin?? How many men sent Lady Dustin?? And so on.

13 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

It pretty much is the only way up north, and trying to beat ironborn in a game of ships is not the brightest idea

Hmmm?? White Harbor?? The only reason why Robb was forced to march  against Moat  Cailin  was because Lysa didn't let him sail to White Harbor.

Also they could just land in the coast and  marcha South from there, there is no need for a naval battle tho Stannis did and  won, these set  of Ironborn aren't the brightest of the pack.

 

13 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

And then they didnt. Not all Westerosi are racists with no inclination to understand other cultures

And when they didn't the North decided to stay loyal.

 

13 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Because of the old gods? Im pretty sure its because of Moat Cailan

Argos Sevenstar never put a foot  in Moat  Caitlin, yes because of the old  gods, even before the North was unified, every Northen fought like one man against every invader.

 

 

Balon  simply didn't have the men or the resources to take and  hold the North and  he didn't know the terrain either and  he didn't know the North winter, his campaign was doomed to fail, Balon  was an idiot.

Had he actually tried to take Cape's wrath  that would've been a very different thing.

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1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Theon solidified his fathers campaign, but even without him The North was firmly in the hands of iron born.

Rodriks army was small, and he wasnt a great commander anyway. Not even able to eradicate Dagmer

Capturing deepwood motte and Moat Cailin isn't really what id describe as firmly in the iron borns hands. Rodrik had around 2,000 men. Id say that's more than enough to retake deepwood motte from Asha (plus the wolfswood clans). Moat cailin is the only challenge Rodrik might face since the main strength of the Iron born is at Moat Cailin. 

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Not sure what that has to do with anything, just because something has never been done does not make it an impossibility

It does when you are the Iron born. I don't think it's impossible for the Iron born to completely take over the western coast, but with men like Balon and Victorian behind the helm, I really doubt it.

Plus iron born arent much for fighting inland. One cavalry charge and you'd break them easily. That's why they resort to only attacking the coasts so they have a route to escape towards the sea. 

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

And northren culture is grimey, very anti smallfolk and sexist.

Not sure how the smallfolk can hate other smallfolk. Highborn all over Westeros are anti-smallfolk same as how governments in our lives don't care much for us regular people. Sexist, yes you are right, this is a medieval fantasy. Men looking down upon women was normal for those times. 

 

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On 10/5/2019 at 3:50 PM, Angel Eyes said:

I don't quite understand why Balon Greyjoy wanted to attack the North and blames Ned Stark for his sons' deaths. Ned wasn't even present when Rodrik was killed; If I was Balon I'd attack Seagard because Jason Mallister was the one who killed Rodrik. Honestly, the North caused him less suffering than the Baratheons did.

The reason Balon attacks the North is that he's not a Stark fanboy and the reason that he's focused on Eddard is probably because Robert and Jason are distant from him, he is however always reminded that Eddard has Theon as a ward. Hence I would guess that Eddard is much more present in Balon's mind than Robert or Jason and as such is the one that kind of represents "the Enemy" in the Iron Throne to Balon.

And now there are many problems with Balon's plan. The most important is that the Old Way is essentially impossible if the opposition can gather naval power to strike back at the Ironmen. As is the case after Iron Throne was forged when the Iron Fleet can't hope to both be the biggest boat in the water and that the other boats won't team up. And attacking the North or the South is equally stupid because Balon seeks permanent conquests and that impossible in both North and South due tot he Ironmen's lack of cavalry and lack of resources to hold off the coming counter attack that will come sooner rather than later. Presumably the Ironmen can outmatch the Northmen in naval power in the west and could thus presumably keep sea-side positions supplied and supported from the sea. But that advantage goes to hell if the Iron Throne gets invovled.

If Balon had done as the Reader suggested and played the Game of Thrones by getting concessions from one side before he made a move, rathern than work for free in King Joffrey's cause, he might have gained lands. But now he just lost a bunch of men with nothing to show for it.

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1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Asha wasnt as ambitious as her father. Perhaps she didnt understand the gravity of Westerosi current events like Balon. 

 Makes sense, kings have to think more more moves in advance then a captain

Exept that Balon was the one that didn't understand what would happen down the line, even Theon knew and told it on his face...

“Take it, then,” he spat, his cheek still tingling. “Call yourself King of the Iron islands, no one will care . . . until the wars are over, and the victor looks about and spies the old fool perched off his shore with an iron crown on his head.”

“A long cold swim, for a crown you cannot keep. Your father had more courage than sense. The Old Way served the isles well when we were one small kingdom amongst many, but Aegon’s Conquest put an end to that. Balon refused to see what was plain before him. The Old Way died with Black Harren and his sons.”

Balon didn't even understand his own people

That was Balon’s blindness; he saw himself in his wild, headstrong daughter, and believed she could succeed him. He was wrong in that, and Aeron tried to tell him so. “No woman will ever rule the ironborn, not even a woman such as Asha,” he insisted, but Balon could be deaf to things he did not wish to hear.

 

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Balon never wanted to conquer the North. He took the parts and castles in the west, and he apparently thought he could also grind down Winterfell eventually, but he never had any intention of making himself the king of the entire North. Claiming he wanted to do that is simply wrong.

He correctly foresaw that Tywin would eventually crush Robb Stark - and had Balon not died, too, Victarion and the Iron Fleet would have prevented the Boltons, the Freys, or any land-based army from pacifying the North. The Northmen in Balon's reach would have been at the Ironborn's mercy.

And that could have continued for years and decades since it would have been a very low priority to get the Redwyne fleet up into Ironborn waters to break Balon's superiority at sea and then, eventually, retake the Northern castles he had taken. Even after the War of the Five Kings was over retaking/pacifying the North would have been a very low priority, considering the Iron Throne is not exactly dependent on the tax payments from up there (White Harbor aside).

From such a position of strength Balon certainly could have come to an agreement with the Iron Throne to either accept his independence or - if he chose to eventually bend the knee - to at least allow him to keep the castles and lands he won by right of conquest. Even Asha thinks the Ironborn could win land like Sea Dragon Point by means of negotiations. Balon could have accomplished something similar with a larger territory being his price.

With the Starks crushed, the Lannister-dominated Baratheon regime couldn't really have made the Boltons the new great house up there while the Ironborn held Moat Cailin. The army could not even have returned home - and White Harbor definitely wouldn't have allowed Boltons/Freys to return home by ship.

Stannis' arrival in the North would be a wildcard in that setting, but without something like that happening the Ironborn up there would have had nothing to fear.

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On 10/5/2019 at 12:23 PM, Victor Newman said:

Balon wanted freedom.  He didn't need a reason.  He wanted to bring back the old way of life for the Iron born.  For that he needed to make the islands independent from the rest of the realm. 

Yeah, and the best way to do that would have been to ally with the North, the other Kingdom fighting for independence. 

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Balon never wanted to conquer the North. He took the parts and castles in the west, and he apparently thought he could also grind down Winterfell eventually, but he never had any intention of making himself the king of the entire North. Claiming he wanted to do that is simply wrong.

He correctly foresaw that Tywin would eventually crush Robb Stark - and had Balon not died, too, Victarion and the Iron Fleet would have prevented the Boltons, the Freys, or any land-based army from pacifying the North. The Northmen in Balon's reach would have been at the Ironborn's mercy.

And that could have continued for years and decades since it would have been a very low priority to get the Redwyne fleet up into Ironborn waters to break Balon's superiority at sea and then, eventually, retake the Northern castles he had taken. Even after the War of the Five Kings was over retaking/pacifying the North would have been a very low priority, considering the Iron Throne is not exactly dependent on the tax payments from up there (White Harbor aside).

From such a position of strength Balon certainly could have come to an agreement with the Iron Throne to either accept his independence or - if he chose to eventually bend the knee - to at least allow him to keep the castles and lands he won by right of conquest. Even Asha thinks the Ironborn could win land like Sea Dragon Point by means of negotiations. Balon could have accomplished something similar with a larger territory being his price.

With the Starks crushed, the Lannister-dominated Baratheon regime couldn't really have made the Boltons the new great house up there while the Ironborn held Moat Cailin. The army could not even have returned home - and White Harbor definitely wouldn't have allowed Boltons/Freys to return home by ship.

Stannis' arrival in the North would be a wildcard in that setting, but without something like that happening the Ironborn up there would have had nothing to fear.

And yet Balon named himself King of the Iron Islands and the North.

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2 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

And yet Balon named himself King of the Iron Islands and the North.

Yeah, well, styles are styles. Aegon the Conqueror also was 'the Lord of the Seven Kingdoms' and 'the King of the Rhoynar'.

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3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Balon never wanted to conquer the North. He took the parts and castles in the west, and he apparently thought he could also grind down Winterfell eventually, but he never had any intention of making himself the king of the entire North. Claiming he wanted to do that is simply wrong.

He does name himself as King of the North and  he says, the rest of the North would be his even if Winterfell defy them for a year.

 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He correctly foresaw that Tywin would eventually crush Robb Stark - and had Balon not died, too, Victarion and the Iron Fleet would have prevented the Boltons, the Freys, or any land-based army from pacifying the North. The Northmen in Balon's reach would have been at the Ironborn's mercy.

No they wouldn't, because that implies that Houses like Manderly or Dustin and the rest would just ignore indefinitely the IB, Victarion would be stucked in Moat  Caitlin which is very vulnerable to attacks from the North. Balon's plans only worked for a time because the Manderlys and  the likes were being assholes and  the Boltons straight up treacherous that and  Theon taking  Winterfell, Rodrik would've repelled  the Ironborn even without Robb bothering.

 

 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And that could have continued for years and decades since it would have been a very low priority to get the Redwyne fleet up into Ironborn waters to break Balon's superiority at sea and then, eventually, retake the Northern castles he had taken. Even after the War of the Five Kings was over retaking/pacifying the North would have been a very low priority, considering the Iron Throne is not exactly dependent on the tax payments from up there (White Harbor aside).

It would rather be a micacle most of the IB army made it through the Winter, it's rather  imposible, no one uses the knowledge of the terrain and  the fact they outnumber the invaders and  them not being used to northern Winter to repel them.

Balon's "conquest" can only be possible  if the Northmen  actually let him have his way, which would not happen.

 

 

 

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Balon saw his opportunity to attack when the Starks took their forces south.  All the other reasons he gave don't really play too much into the decision.  The bulk of the strength of the north went south with Robb and thus left it vulnerable.  The unique defense of Moat Cailin was attractive.  

The Ironborn strength is on the seas.  The Boltons and their Frey allies would have managed to clean the north.  Balon would have lost his hold on the north.

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1 hour ago, frenin said:

He does name himself as King of the North and  he says, the rest of the North would be his even if Winterfell defy them for a year.

He doesn't speak about the entire North. He speaks about Winterfell and the places he took. He never indicates he wants to take Karhold, Last Hearth, the Dreadfort, White Harbor, or even the Rills and Barrowton.

The way I see it Balon only ever intended to grasp as much of the North as he could swallow, not necessarily all of it. Although he definitely would have accepted if all the Northmen had done him homage as their king after he had taken Winterfell, one assumes.

He never clearly states he is going to launch a major campaign the way Euron drags everybody to the Reach to conquer and hold the entire North.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

No they wouldn't, because that implies that Houses like Manderly or Dustin would just ignore indefinitely the IB, Victarion would be stucked in Moat  Caitlin which is very vulnerable to attacks from the North. Balon's plans only worked for a time because the Manderlys and  the likes were being assholes and  the Boltons straight up treacherous that and  Theon taking  Winterfell, Rodrik would've repelled  the Ironborn even without Robb bothering.

No, he wouldn't. Rodrik tried and failed, and he failed in part because without a Stark at Winterfell the North wasn't even willing to marshal a large army to oust Theon from Winterfell.

Nobody tried to challenge the Ironborn while they were still in force at Deepwood and Moat Cailin, and even afterwards the Dustins only bestirred themselves after it became clear Roose was coming back with a large army - and the Ironborn had left only a token force behind because of their Kingsmoot.

Eventually they might try to do something - but whether they would succeed would depend on whether they win the battles, which is neither given nor necessarily very likely.

And with the remnants of Robb's army stuck in the south chances are not that bad that living Balon could make common cause with certain Northmen against the Boltons and Freys - especially in scenario where Theon never takes Winterfell.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

It would rather be a micacle most of the IB army made it through the Winter, it's rather  imposible, no one uses the knowledge of the terrain and  the fact they outnumber the invaders to repel them.

Balon's "conquest" can only be possible  if the Northmen  actually let him have his way, which would not happen.

That blade cuts two ways. Vic's guys wouldn't be that far north. How bad is winter in the Neck compared to, say, the Twins? We don't know. The Northmen are weak, and it should be very easy for the Ironborn to go on raids before winter starts, to steal their provisions, burn their fields and villages and holdfast, and ensure many of the Northern smallfolk starve and freeze to death in winter.

The bottom line is - the North has no means to prevent the Ironborn from stopping their raids. The way to beat them into submission would be the old viking way that also worked with the English in the early middle ages.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

He doesn't speak about the entire North. He speaks about Winterfell and the places he took. He never indicates he wants to take Karhold, Last Hearth, the Dreadfort, White Harbor, or even the Rills and Barrowton.

The way I see it Balon only ever intended to grasp as much of the North as he could swallow, not necessarily all of it. Although he definitely would have accepted if all the Northmen had done him homage as their king after he had taken Winterfell, one assumes.

He never clearly states he is going to launch a major campaign the way Euron drags everybody to the Reach to conquer and hold the entire North.

He does, he clearly says that Winterfell is the only Castle that may defy him, whixh don't make sense but that's Balon, he couldn't get to those places before he was killed but he crowned himself as King of the Isles and the North, not King of the Isles and Moat Caitlin.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

No, he wouldn't. Rodrik tried and failed, and he failed in part because without a Stark at Winterfell the North wasn't even willing to marshal a large army to oust Theon from Winterfell.

Nobody tried to challenge the Ironborn while they were still in force at Deepwood and Moat Cailin, and even afterwards the Dustins only bestirred themselves after it became clear Roose was coming back with a large army - and the Ironborn had left only a token force behind because of their Kingsmoot.

Eventually they might try to do something - but whether they would succeed would depend on whether they win the battles, which is neither given nor necessarily very likely.

And with the remnants of Robb's army stuck in the south chances are not that bad that living Balon could make common cause with certain Northmen against the Boltons and Freys - especially in scenario where Theon never takes Winterfell.

Yes he would, Rodrik was betrayed by the Boltons, so unless Balon had a hand on it is him having luck, and you highlight the point, Balon could get that far because the northen lords were being assholes and the Bolton treachearous, he couldn't count on that forever and when that stopped he would be kicked out and no, the northeners aren't helping  Balon with him being an invader.

And i don't know how you can honestly think they are not winning, the Ironborn rather suck in land battles, the only exception we know of are when they were leaded by a very capable man and experienced warrior as Harwyn Hoare and the Northmen play at home-

The northmen outnumber the Ib, know perfectly the land and can count with the help of the locals,Balon don't have the men, nor the resources to win  a war against the Northmen and he definitely couldn't do it in winter.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That blade cuts two ways. Vic's guys wouldn't be that far north. How bad is winter in the Neck compared to, say, the Twins? We don't know. The Northmen are weak, and it should be very easy for the Ironborn to go on raids before winter starts, to steal their provisions, burn their fields and villages and holdfast, and ensure many of the Northern smallfolk starve and freeze to death in winter.

The bottom line is - the North has no means to prevent the Ironborn from stopping their raids. The way to beat them into submission would be the old viking way that also worked with the English in the early middle ages.

We know how the North answers to starvation, they rather the kamikaze version and the Neck can't be protected from the north and the Reeds and the likes wouldn't be good neighbours and if he's not reaving too far from home, he's not really causing havoc and while he's out the Reeds and the likes would take the chance to make an unwelcoming party. And Victarion would be sitting in Moat Caitlin during Winter, that's very much impossible, even if we don't know how bad winters are in the Neck, we do know the coming winter would be very bad, Victarion and his forces are either dying on ruins or leaving them to go North, where winter would be badder and it's not like Victarion can hold the Moat against forces coming from the north.

And to where is he raiding?? It's not that the North has holdfast and villagers everywhere, he more likely sail and found himself trapped around miles of nothing and because he's not  reaving far from home, he's not aiming to places like White Harbor or Barrowton and their surroundings.

Sure they have means and it's a very easy one, gather an army and kick them out of Moat Caitlin, after that go to every keep they hold and do the same or attack them by several fronts.

The bottom line is that everyone with an ounze of sense understood Greyjoy conquest had date of expiry, Balon's plan was his highest craziness and even when he was extremely lucky with the north internal affairs, he would've been driven out.

 

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11 hours ago, frenin said:

He does, he clearly says that Winterfell is the only Castle that may defy him, whixh don't make sense but that's Balon, he couldn't get to those places before he was killed but he crowned himself as King of the Isles and the North, not King of the Isles and Moat Caitlin.

This is the war council:

Quote

" [...] Theon. You shall take eight longships north—”

“Eight?” His face reddened. “What can I hope to accomplish with only eight longships?”

“You are to harry the Stony Shore, raiding the fishing villages and sinking any ships you chance to meet. It may be that you will draw some of the northern lords out from behind their stone walls. Aeron will accompany you, and Dagmer Cleftjaw.”

[...]

“Asha, my daughter,” Lord Balon went on, and Theon turned to see that his sister had slipped in silently, “you shall take thirty longships of picked men round Sea Dragon Point. Land upon the tidal flats north of Deepwood Motte. March quickly, and the castle may fall before they even know you are upon them.”

[...]

Theon had to bite his tongue. Deepwood Motte was the stronghold of the Glovers. With both Robett and Galbart warring in the south, it would be lightly held, and once the castle fell the ironmen would have a secure base in the heart of the north. I should be the one sent to take Deepwood. He knew Deepwood Motte, he had visited the Glovers several times with Eddard Stark.

“Victarion,” Lord Balon said to his brother, “the main thrust shall fall to you. When my sons have struck their blows, Winterfell must respond. You should meet small opposition as you sail up Saltspear and the Fever River. At the headwaters, you will be less than twenty miles from Moat Cailin. The Neck is the key to the kingdom. Already we command the western seas. Once we hold Moat Cailin, the pup will not be able to win back to the north … and if he is fool enough to try, his enemies will seal the south end of the causeway behind him, and Robb the boy will find himself caught like a rat in a bottle.”

Theon could keep silent no longer. “A bold plan, father, but the lords in their castles—”

Lord Balon rode over him. “The lords are gone south with the pup. Those who remained behind are the cravens, old men, and green boys. They will yield or fall, one by one. Winterfell may defy us for a year, but what of it? The rest shall be ours, forest and field and hall, and we shall make the folk our thralls and salt wives.”

Balon says the lords will yield or fall, but he does not specify whether he means the entire North by that. There are no plans made for them how to conquer more castles - but then: if Balon planned something along the lines Euron later did then he certainly could have subdued more castles after the Lannisters had taken care of Robb and his army and Victarion was preventing the return of the Boltons.

He is completely correct about the cravens, the old men, and the green boys. No Northman tries to take the field against the Ironborn after Ser Rodrik failed.

11 hours ago, frenin said:

Yes he would, Rodrik was betrayed by the Boltons, so unless Balon had a hand on it is him having luck, and you highlight the point, Balon could get that far because the northen lords were being assholes and the Bolton treachearous, he couldn't count on that forever and when that stopped he would be kicked out and no, the northeners aren't helping  Balon with him being an invader.

Theon made his own risky plan which had nothing to do with his father's plan. He didn't want to target Winterfell this early in the game.

11 hours ago, frenin said:

And i don't know how you can honestly think they are not winning, the Ironborn rather suck in land battles, the only exception we know of are when they were leaded by a very capable man and experienced warrior as Harwyn Hoare and the Northmen play at home-

The northmen outnumber the Ib, know perfectly the land and can count with the help of the locals,Balon don't have the men, nor the resources to win  a war against the Northmen and he definitely couldn't do it in winter.

It was autumn when he started his campaign, not winter. And winter doesn't give the Northmen magical advantages. Thanks to Robb's war they are not prepared for winter, and lost about 20,000 men in the south.

11 hours ago, frenin said:

We know how the North answers to starvation, they rather the kamikaze version and the Neck can't be protected from the north and the Reeds and the likes wouldn't be good neighbours and if he's not reaving too far from home, he's not really causing havoc and while he's out the Reeds and the likes would take the chance to make an unwelcoming party. And Victarion would be sitting in Moat Caitlin during Winter, that's very much impossible, even if we don't know how bad winters are in the Neck, we do know the coming winter would be very bad, Victarion and his forces are either dying on ruins or leaving them to go North, where winter would be badder and it's not like Victarion can hold the Moat against forces coming from the north.

Moat Cailin can also be protected against the north. It would be more difficult, of course, but we see it can be done. Ramsay doesn't have the place stormed, does he? The crannogmen troubled the Ironborn a little bit, but they did not attack them - not even when only the token force was left.

11 hours ago, frenin said:

And to where is he raiding?? It's not that the North has holdfast and villagers everywhere, he more likely sail and found himself trapped around miles of nothing and because he's not  reaving far from home, he's not aiming to places like White Harbor or Barrowton and their surroundings.

You can also steal food from the villagers at the shores.

11 hours ago, frenin said:

Sure they have means and it's a very easy one, gather an army and kick them out of Moat Caitlin, after that go to every keep they hold and do the same or attack them by several fronts.

But that's not what they are doing, is it? The North would be lacking a Stark, meaning there would be no unity against the Ironborn. Even if Theon had never taken Winterfell, Brandon is a crippled child who is never going to lead anyone in battle, and Rickon is even younger. Those boys would not be able to lead a resistance movement against the Ironborn.

11 hours ago, frenin said:

The bottom line is that everyone with an ounze of sense understood Greyjoy conquest had date of expiry, Balon's plan was his highest craziness and even when he was extremely lucky with the north internal affairs, he would've been driven out.

If you think how dangerous an all-out attack of the Ironborn on the Reach is, it is quite clear that the Ironborn could have held what they gained and even expanded on their conquest if all the Iron Islands had invaded the North.

Since there wouldn't have been a coordinated defence they could have taken castle after castle as Balon described it - the same Tywin defeated the Riverlords piece by piece after Robb had allowed them to return to their castles.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Balon says the lords will yield or fall, but he does not specify whether he means the entire North by that. There are no plans made for them how to conquer more castles - but then: if Balon planned something along the lines Euron later did then he certainly could have subdued more castles after the Lannisters had taken care of Robb and his army and Victarion was preventing the return of the Boltons.

He is completely correct about the cravens, the old men, and the green boys. No Northman tries to take the field against the Ironborn after Ser Rodrik failed.

 

He does specifically say that the Lords would yield one by one and  He does claim the entire  North as his by crowning himself King of the North. Nor that he can do more, Balon  dies before Robb and  it's not like he's in position of getting himself too  into the North.  I wouldn't call the Lords who stayed behind cravens, they certainly aren't they just weren't toó bothered with sitch because they were assholes, that wouldn't continue  forever  and  Rodrik does take the field to oust them, he's just betrayed.

 

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Theon made his own risky plan which had nothing to do with his father's plan. He didn't want to target Winterfell this early in the game.

Theon gave new life to his father's plans, Balon's actual plan was submit the North and after that marching against Winterfell.

 

 

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It was autumn when he started his campaign, not winter. And winter doesn't give the Northmen magical advantages. Thanks to Robb's war they are not prepared for winter, and lost about 20,000 men in the south.

And winter would be there in a year and he clearly didn't think ahead did he??

winter does give the northmen a weather extremely hostile with foreigners, the knew how to move in winter and where to, the IB simply don't have a clue, the locals would still outnumber the invaders and know how to use the terrain against them.

 

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Moat Cailin can also be protected against the north. It would be more difficult, of course, but we see it can be done. Ramsay doesn't have the place stormed, does he? The crannogmen troubled the Ironborn a little bit, but they did not attack them - not even when only the token force was left.

Not because he can't but because Theon is a far better solution, Theon makes clear to IB that they are either surrending or dying there an then and honestly good luck trying to survive a winter in the ruins of Moat Caitlin.

And we're back to square 1, you do keep implying that the northmen would let Balon do as he pleases forever, because that's the only way the IB can hold any conquest, if the northmen are not too bothered with it, indefinetely.

 

 

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You can also steal food from the villagers at the shores.

Then again not causing too much havoc, some peasants would surely die, most of them however would rather die a Big Bucket's death than dying with their asses freezing.

 

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But that's not what they are doing, is it? The North would be lacking a Stark, meaning there would be no unity against the Ironborn. Even if Theon had never taken Winterfell, Brandon is a crippled child who is never going to lead anyone in battle, and Rickon is even younger. Those boys would not be able to lead a resistance movement against the Ironborn.

Rodrik would lead a resistance just fine and the North needs a Stark, not a warrior Stark, and no that's not what they are doing because again, Winterfell is taken, the Starks are dead for most of the people and Rodrik was betrayed by the Boltons.

You say that the North would be helpless against the Ironborn but that's just false, the moment the North decide to unite against them, the Ironborn are out, they simply don't have the men nor the resources to fight a war against the North in the north.

And I do think Bran would be able to lead the North just fine, he is a figure head,  not a commander.

 

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If you think how dangerous an all-out attack of the Ironborn on the Reach is, it is quite clear that the Ironborn could have held what they gained and even expanded on their conquest if all the Iron Islands had invaded the North.

Since there wouldn't have been a coordinated defence they could have taken castle after castle as Balon described it - the same Tywin defeated the Riverlords piece by piece after Robb had allowed them to return to their castles.

No it's not clear at all, they couldn't, how would they?? Their plan rested in held Moat Caitlin and not all castles are Deepwood Mote, good luck trying to take Barrowtown or Dreadfort and i don't even believe they would ever make that north, they would die before that.

And the Ironborn in the Reach are fighting mostly from the sea and in a terrain they are far more familliar with than a Kingdom as big as the whole south with a weather that would cripple them far more than any northern blade.

Again, Balon's plans were idiotic, the only reason they held out so much, was because of the northern lords assholery and treachery.

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36 minutes ago, frenin said:

He does specifically say that the Lords would yield one by one and  He does claim the entire  North as his by crowning himself King of the North. Nor that he can do more, Balon  dies before Robb and  it's not like he's in position of getting himself too  into the North.  I wouldn't call the Lords who stayed behind cravens, they certainly aren't they just weren't toó bothered with sitch because they were assholes, that wouldn't continue  forever  and  Rodrik does take the field to oust them, he's just betrayed.

As I already said above, titles don't matter. Aegon I also ruled Dorne - but only in title, no?

Balon is not specific. He talks about lords, but who does he mean? He talks about Winterfell defying them for a year, but does this mean he believes he will conquer everything around Winterfell - from Stoney Shore to White Harbor, and from Moat Cailin to the Wall - in that year? Or does he rather plan to take all the castles west from Winterfell in the year he expects Winterfell to defy him?

We don't know.

I'd say the former is somewhat unrealistic, but the latter is not. You have to keep in mind that Theon is really only in that bad position he is in because he does not follow his father's plan. He overreaches himself with too few men.

Rodrik only drives Cleftjaw back from Torrhen's Square - which the man later takes, anyway - because it is a diversion Cleftjaw starts with the few men Balon has given Theon and Cleftjaw. They were not supposed to take on either Torrhen's Square or Winterfell with the men from only eight longships.

Rodrik never so much as tries to retake Deepwood or Moat Cailin - where the Ironborn are still in force while Balon is still alive. Vic took the Iron Fleet (i.e. 100 longships) to Moat Cailin and Asha thirty to Deepwood - when she returns she comes only with a token force because many of her men abandoned her after the Kingsmoot. That token force is easily ousted and defeated - her earlier force wouldn't have been.

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17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

As I already said above, titles don't matter. Aegon I also ruled Dorne - but only in title, no?

Balon is not specific. He talks about lords, but who does he mean? He talks about Winterfell defying them for a year, but does this mean he believes he will conquer everything around Winterfell - from Stoney Shore to White Harbor, and from Moat Cailin to the Wall - in that year? Or does he rather plan to take all the castles west from Winterfell in the year he expects Winterfell to defy him?

We don't know.

I'd say the former is somewhat unrealistic, but the latter is not. You have to keep in mind that Theon is really only in that bad position he is in because he does not follow his father's plan. He overreaches himself with too few men.

Rodrik only drives Cleftjaw back from Torrhen's Square - which the man later takes, anyway - because it is a diversion Cleftjaw starts with the few men Balon has given Theon and Cleftjaw. They were not supposed to take on either Torrhen's Square or Winterfell with the men from only eight longships.

Rodrik never so much as tries to retake Deepwood or Moat Cailin - where the Ironborn are still in force while Balon is still alive. Vic took the Iron Fleet (i.e. 100 longships) to Moat Cailin and Asha thirty to Deepwood - when she returns she comes only with a token force because many of her men abandoned her after the Kingsmoot. That token force is easily ousted and defeated - her earlier force wouldn't have been.

Titles are a claim and a pretension, by naming themselves Kings of the Rhoynar, the Targs were claiming ownership over Dorne even when they couldn't conquer it and Balon certainly was going to try his luck, using a fallacy of ignorance when Balon's words are absolutisms and he does crown himself King of all the North is a rather unfair tactic, especially since the man is dead.

Theon overreaches himself, true enough, yet he does save his fathers campaign by taking Winterfell,  Rodrik drives Cleftjaw becaue he knows the land and Cleftjaw don't and the latter only takes it when Rodrik is dead.

No, Rodrik was trying to retake Winterfell and then he'd retake the rest, he never could do it anyway because the Boltons betrayed them and yes that would've been a tough battle, one the IB would eventually lose anyway.

 

PD: I answered the rest later, sorry if you could not see it.

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