Why does Balon Greyjoy want to attack the North?

[frenin]

7 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

 

 

8 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Of course it can dude. Its like 100 million miles away lol. Just stay hydrated. 

Because we all know that's the only thing to worry  about.

 

8 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Elements, especially severe elements can easily sway an army into victory or defeat, but it cant decided that soley by itself. Only humans can.

Humans using elements  they are familiar with to their advantage and  humans  who have never faced extreme elements  before therefore they are not ready for them??

 

11 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

When it comes to war nothings impossible, it just usually takes a great commander

Which Balon  just isn't, that's the point. 

[Arthur Peres]

42 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Word. I didnt list Ashmark because it gets abandoned. (While Crag only didnt because it became his inlaws house) I dont remember these other several castles, but Ill assume he abandoned them as well.

 

They are never mentioned by name, I just think that this show how badly the defense of the Westerlands were.

 

44 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

 Robbs war really was drastically different then Balons. Odds stacked against him. Balon, like KL, can watch Victarion and Asha (Tywin and Vargo) war while they chill at home acting like a king on a throne. It reminds me of a Chinese idiom, A man can conquer a kingdom on horseback, but no man can rule a kingdom on horseback.

 Agree, but a lot of it, was because of Balon decision. Otherwise the clock would be on Tywin since he has to defend both the Westerlands from Robb and KL from Stannis or Renly.

About the Chinese idiom, the guy that made it cleary never heard of Alexander the Great.

[Lord Varys]

11 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

Tell that to Napoleons men. Look at the state Stannis’s men are at. I doubt they would’ve survived if they didn’t have those wolfswood clans as scouts and the northern mountain clans.

They neither had the time nor the opportunity to properly prepare for winter warfare in the North. The Ironborn do have both time and opportunity.

11 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

Because their lands aren’t threatened.

They effectively are threatened by their presence, are they not? Them sitting on their asses gives the Ironborn the time and opportunity to attack them first, preventing the Northmen from throwing them back into the sea. The Northmen don't have the resources to feed a sizable army for a longer period of time - Barrowton and the Ryswell could not marshal an army at the right time to prevent an Ironborn attack on them...

But if they already had called their banners back in ACoK when the Ironborn first attacked - then why didn't they carry the war to Torrhen's Square or Moat Cailin and the Fever? The fact that they did not act on the own before Roose came back strongly suggests they were not willing to act on their own.

11 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

A women or not Barbrey seems to be a decent ruler and won’t be easily frightened. Barrowton is rumoured to be as strong as house Bolton. And probably richer. I wouldn’t doubt that if the iron born have the intent of taking barrowton the barrow knights would instead decide to meet them on the field. Iron born can fight in sieges but not in an open field against disciplined infantry and cavalry. For this reason I see it hard for the iron born to conquer inland territories since they’d be forced to fight pitched battles on unfavourable conditions. 
Battle of the green fork is a good example of what happens when you don’t bring cavalry into a battle.

The Barrowlands are pretty big, and she would have her men at the ready to beat back an attack on the town. If Balon threw the bulk of his force on them - the amount of men Euron later used to subdue the Shields and is going to use soon to crush the Redwyne fleet and then take the Arbor - then he certainly could have destroyed one not particularly large wooden town.

The Ironborn would definitely evade pitched battles - they would sneak around, use deception, make hit-and-run attacks, and only strike at as formidable a target as Barrowton when they were pretty sure they could at least destroy it.

11 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

Outmanoeuvring. I doubt it not when you have balon and Victorian. The North is so big that the iron born will also be spread thin if they decide to take inland castles. 
Robb marched his army south and still the strength put together of manderly-Dustin-Ryswell would outnumber the iron born at moat cailin.

They would not need more than a token force as garrisons to keep the castles they have taken - especially if they butcher the Northmen living and in the surrounding villages by the hundreds or thousands.

The latter is just a guess on your part, considering that we don't really know how many men Vic had with him at the Moat before he left - and it ignores the fact that Balon definitely had the resources to send much more men to the Moat to secure the place.

But again - there is no indication whatsoever that the Dustins and Ryswells would ever make common cause with the Manderlys against the Ironborn. Even if they had technically a numerical advantage, chances are that they would be unable to use that because they would not work together.

In fact, in the wake of the Red Wedding one could see the Manderlys joining forces with the Ironborn to prevent the Boltons from coming back North. Lord Wyman does know that Theon did not kill Bran and Rickon, no, and the Ironborn could help for the time being to keep the Freys and Boltons out of the North and get his revenge.

11 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

Tywin took most of the westerlander strength with him. You can clearly see this when oxcross was full of green boys and useless reserves. The North probably has more men than the westerlands seeing as Robb Only took half of its strength with him. 

If Robb took only half his strength then it is very odd that Stannis and Roose have only as few men at Winterfell as they have. Stannis' men are for the most part fresh Northern troops (clansmen and some Bear Islanders and Glover men who weren't part of any fighting before, but there are also veterans from Rodrik's host in his army), but Roose's strength are mostly Bolton and Karstark veterans and men raised by Ramsay back in ACoK. The Dustin/Ryswell men are fresh troops as are the Manderlys and the Umbers - but many of the other houses are also veterans from Winterfell battle.

If there were another 20,000 men in the North then those men would have been mentioned by this time - both Roose and Stannis and their allies would have started to raise them to have an advantage at Winterfell.

Instead the fate of the North will be decided by about 10,000 men in total, about 5,000+ on each sides, 2,000+ of who happen to be Freys (i.e. not Northmen).

And the amount of really fresh troops - i.e. such that were raised after Robb left - might be lower than 5,000.

There may still be some reserves left at White Harbor - perhaps the potential for another 5,000 men army, with many knights among them, and there would be still men on Skagos, of course, but they are stuck on their island for the time being, lacking ships.

That would indicate that the total number of men we can reasonably expect to be raised after Robb left would be another 10,000. And it might never be necessary to really do this, considering that not all men at Winterfell will die and - ideally - many of the men right now fighting for the Boltons will defect to the good guys in time to help put the Boltons down or at least be pardoned after the war so they can redeem themselves in the fight against the Others.

If things went really well most casualties in the Winterfell battles will be the core Frey and Bolton men (many of them will have to go). That could mean that 7,000+ men be still around after the coming battles.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

They neither had the time nor the opportunity to properly prepare for winter warfare in the North. The Ironborn do have both time and opportunity.

They effectively are threatened by their presence, are they not? Them sitting on their asses gives the Ironborn the time and opportunity to attack them first, preventing the Northmen from throwing them back into the sea. The Northmen don't have the resources to feed a sizable army for a longer period of time - Barrowton and the Ryswell could not marshal an army at the right time to prevent an Ironborn attack on them...

But if they already had called their banners back in ACoK when the Ironborn first attacked - then why didn't they carry the war to Torrhen's Square or Moat Cailin and the Fever? The fact that they did not act on the own before Roose came back strongly suggests they were not willing to act on their own.

The Barrowlands are pretty big, and she would have her men at the ready to beat back an attack on the town. If Balon threw the bulk of his force on them - the amount of men Euron later used to subdue the Shields and is going to use soon to crush the Redwyne fleet and then take the Arbor - then he certainly could have destroyed one not particularly large wooden town.

The Ironborn would definitely evade pitched battles - they would sneak around, use deception, make hit-and-run attacks, and only strike at as formidable a target as Barrowton when they were pretty sure they could at least destroy it.

They would not need more than a token force as garrisons to keep the castles they have taken - especially if they butcher the Northmen living and in the surrounding villages by the hundreds or thousands.

The latter is just a guess on your part, considering that we don't really know how many men Vic had with him at the Moat before he left - and it ignores the fact that Balon definitely had the resources to send much more men to the Moat to secure the place.

But again - there is no indication whatsoever that the Dustins and Ryswells would ever make common cause with the Manderlys against the Ironborn. Even if they had technically a numerical advantage, chances are that they would be unable to use that because they would not work together.

In fact, in the wake of the Red Wedding one could see the Manderlys joining forces with the Ironborn to prevent the Boltons from coming back North. Lord Wyman does know that Theon did not kill Bran and Rickon, no, and the Ironborn could help for the time being to keep the Freys and Boltons out of the North and get his revenge.

If Robb took only half his strength then it is very odd that Stannis and Roose have only as few men at Winterfell as they have. Stannis' men are for the most part fresh Northern troops (clansmen and some Bear Islanders and Glover men who weren't part of any fighting before, but there are also veterans from Rodrik's host in his army), but Roose's strength are mostly Bolton and Karstark veterans and men raised by Ramsay back in ACoK. The Dustin/Ryswell men are fresh troops as are the Manderlys and the Umbers - but many of the other houses are also veterans from Winterfell battle.

If there were another 20,000 men in the North then those men would have been mentioned by this time - both Roose and Stannis and their allies would have started to raise them to have an advantage at Winterfell.

Instead the fate of the North will be decided by about 10,000 men in total, about 5,000+ on each sides, 2,000+ of who happen to be Freys (i.e. not Northmen).

And the amount of really fresh troops - i.e. such that were raised after Robb left - might be lower than 5,000.

There may still be some reserves left at White Harbor - perhaps the potential for another 5,000 men army, with many knights among them, and there would be still men on Skagos, of course, but they are stuck on their island for the time being, lacking ships.

That would indicate that the total number of men we can reasonably expect to be raised after Robb left would be another 10,000. And it might never be necessary to really do this, considering that not all men at Winterfell will die and - ideally - many of the men right now fighting for the Boltons will defect to the good guys in time to help put the Boltons down or at least be pardoned after the war so they can redeem themselves in the fight against the Others.

If things went really well most casualties in the Winterfell battles will be the core Frey and Bolton men (many of them will have to go). That could mean that 7,000+ men be still around after the coming battles.

Guess your aim was to summon me and dutifully, here I am.

There are many Northern soldiers yet to be shown, ready to emerge and unite behind a Stark leader.

About 20k have died in total - both in the North and on Robb’s southron campaign. There are another 20k or so available at this point, if the right leader arrives to call them forth.

4k with Stannis, about 5k with Roose, maybe 5k with Manderly, maybe 3k Skagosi, a few thousand more Ryswells and Dustins, and assorted others scattered across the Northern lordships.

Actually, looking at the above, it might even be more than 20k.

[Hugorfonics]

15 hours ago, frenin said:

Humans using elements  they are familiar with to their advantage and  humans  who have never faced extreme elements  before therefore they are not ready for them??

I mean, this is probably one of the worst winters ever, I doubt anyones prepared. 

But I stress, elements are huge however proper equipment is crucial. Smallfolks vs an army, axes vs plows. Smallfolk cant arm themselves nor lead men only noblemen can (usually) and the noble northerners made it clear, they will not take to the field.

Also, why would smallfolk care? Both ask for rent and both have no qualms to rape and murder. Only difference is this child of rape would be considered ironborn and permitted to captain their own ship. 

15 hours ago, frenin said:

Which Balon  just isn't, that's the point. 

Hes no Genghis, but no one is

14 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

They are never mentioned by name, I just think that this show how badly the defense of the Westerlands were.

Word, or to show how aggressive Robb was. Maybe a little bit of both

14 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Agree, but a lot of it, was because of Balon decision. Otherwise the clock would be on Tywin since he has to defend both the Westerlands from Robb and KL from Stannis or Renly.

Balon was a little scared of Tywin, plus the distance to back home for Tywin is way less then the distance for Robb.

Also, Robb really did not no how to offer an alliance. He basically offered Greyjoy the chance to be an elite and historical group of mercenaries. How insulting is that?

Theyre not sellswords, theyre fucking Ironborn. They pay the ironprice, how can a man gift a crown? Only the drowned god can do that.

14 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

About the Chinese idiom, the guy that made it cleary never heard of Alexander the Great.

Idk. (I mean, he almost definitely did not hear about Alex... maybe) his kingdom was prospering but it was also built on the graves of nations like Egypt and Persia, the infrastructure was already there. It also certainly doesnt help that after his death his kingdom split apart. Maybe your right though, and ill give it to him

Id say Genghis also did it, he probably disproved alot of Chinese idioms lol

[frenin]

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

I mean, this is probably one of the worst winters ever, I doubt anyones prepared. 

Who would find the winter  worst, the one who has experiencie many Winter or a summer Knight who never has seen the northern winter  before??

 

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

But I stress, elements are huge however proper equipment is crucial. Smallfolks vs an army, axes vs plows. Smallfolk cant arm themselves nor lead men only noblemen can (usually) and the noble northerners made it clear, they will not take to the field.

Smallfolk will use whatever they have if they feel threatened and  where the nobles made clear they wouldn't take the field?? They would just let the IB conquer  them??

 

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Also, why would smallfolk care? Both ask for rent and both have no qualms to rape and murder. Only difference is this child of rape would be considered ironborn and permitted to captain their own ship. 

I suppose that cultural differences, slavery and  giving your women etc, i mean, you're not trying to say that the reavers and  the Old Way are actually an improve right??

 

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Hes no Genghis, but no one is

The other at least know how to use familiar terrain on their advantage, have superior forces  etc etc. The IB only have the surprise element on their side. Time and  logistics are on the other side.

[The Young Maester]

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

They neither had the time nor the opportunity to properly prepare for winter warfare in the North. The Ironborn do have both time and opportunity.

It's their home, they will always have the time, especially in a kingdom so big. I really can't see a scenario in which the iron born start marching inland, whilst leaving their ships behind. A long march through the cold north would be exhausting for a seafaring people. 

 

 

 

 

 

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

They effectively are threatened by their presence, are they not? Them sitting on their asses gives the Ironborn the time and opportunity to attack them first, preventing the Northmen from throwing them back into the sea. 

But we dont know whether the dustins and ryswell have actually marshalled their men. The distance between barowton and Moat Cailin is quite far. No doubt dustin scouts are keeping an eye on the iron born, and if the iron born decide to march on the town, the Dustin cavalry can simply use the advantage of land knowledge and horses to hinder their march. And the iron born does perform poorly when defending against a cavalry charge.

 

 

 

 

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Northmen don't have the resources to feed a sizable army for a longer period of time

Well the iron born don't even have a sizeable army. Victorian has the core of the iron born strength at moat cailin, and he is surrounded by two of the wealthiest (fertile land as well) houses in the north. Asha would likely have 2k-3k iron born at deepwood motte, whilst dagmar has less than that at torhens square. Whilst no doubt balon has a reserve at the iron islands. 

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But if they already had called their banners back in ACoK when the Ironborn first attacked - then why didn't they carry the war to Torrhen's Square or Moat Cailin and the Fever? The fact that they did not act on the own before Roose came back strongly suggests they were not willing to act on their own.

They won't act unless the Iron born attack their holdings/lands. You've got ryswell,dustin,manderly watching moat Cailin. Whilst the force at depwood motte is so isolated it won't risk moving inland where it could be surrounded by Northmen. Same for torhens square. They ahvent got enough men to even wage an inland war. 

 

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Barrowlands are pretty big, and she would have her men at the ready to beat back an attack on the town. If Balon threw the bulk of his force on them - the amount of men Euron later used to subdue the Shields and is going to use soon to crush the Redwyne fleet and then take the Arbor - then he certainly could have destroyed one not particularly large wooden town.

Barrowton isnt surrounded by water. Iron born plus land equals disaster.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Ironborn would definitely evade pitched battles - they would sneak around, use deception, make hit-and-run attacks, and only strike at as formidable a target as Barrowton when they were pretty sure they could at least destroy it.

Can they really evade pitched battles when they are marching in unknown land? sneaking around land they dont know whilst mounted scouts that are 4x faster than your average iron born footmen are patrolling the land. Hit and run tactics only work when you are the defender or you are the attacker with cavalry, which the iron born dont have. Scottish highlanders would use hit and run tactics but on the mountains, and barrowton doesn't have any mountains, its a plain open field.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

They would not need more than a token force as garrisons to keep the castles they have taken - especially if they butcher the Northmen living and in the surrounding villages by the hundreds or thousands.

You need a very large force to do that in a land so big. And dont forget cavalry to top the villagers from running.

 

 

 

 

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The latter is just a guess on your part, considering that we don't really know how many men Vic had with him at the Moat before he left - and it ignores the fact that Balon definitely had the resources to send much more men to the Moat to secure the place.

My guess is that Vic had 10k men at the moat, since the iron born can raise around 15k men. Manderly claims to be able to raise 10k (more like 5k-7k) Whilst dustin can no doubt raise as many men as bolton did, and ryswell maybe as many as the karstarks and umbers. That's around 10k-13k. And remember men are more motivated to fight when they are being invaded by foreigners. 

 

 

 

 

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But again - there is no indication whatsoever that the Dustins and Ryswells would ever make common cause with the Manderlys against the Ironborn. Even if they had technically a numerical advantage, chances are that they would be unable to use that because they would not work together.

You never know. They might share a decent relationship with each other due to their proximity. And no doubt lots of trade happens between barrowton and white harbour. Youd be surprised how neighbours would band together in order to fight the common foe. When china was full of warlords. The communist and republicans banded together in order to fight the Japanese.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 In fact, in the wake of the Red Wedding one could see the Manderlys joining forces with the Ironborn to prevent the Boltons from coming back North. Lord Wyman does know that Theon did not kill Bran and Rickon, no, and the Ironborn could help for the time being to keep the Freys and Boltons out of the North and get his revenge.

Manderly is more likely to take moat cailin for himself. Seeing as how balon was dead and Vic left the moat.

 

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If Robb took only half his strength then it is very odd that Stannis and Roose have only as few men at Winterfell as they have. Stannis' men are for the most part fresh Northern troops (clansmen and some Bear Islanders and Glover men who weren't part of any fighting before, but there are also veterans from Rodrik's host in his army), but Roose's strength are mostly Bolton and Karstark veterans and men raised by Ramsay back in ACoK. The Dustin/Ryswell men are fresh troops as are the Manderlys and the Umbers - but many of the other houses are also veterans from Winterfell battle.

If there were another 20,000 men in the North then those men would have been mentioned by this time - both Roose and Stannis and their allies would have started to raise them to have an advantage at Winterfell.

Instead the fate of the North will be decided by about 10,000 men in total, about 5,000+ on each sides, 2,000+ of who happen to be Freys (i.e. not Northmen).

And the amount of really fresh troops - i.e. such that were raised after Robb left - might be lower than 5,000.

There may still be some reserves left at White Harbor - perhaps the potential for another 5,000 men army, with many knights among them, and there would be still men on Skagos, of course, but they are stuck on their island for the time being, lacking ships.

That would indicate that the total number of men we can reasonably expect to be raised after Robb left would be another 10,000. And it might never be necessary to really do this, considering that not all men at Winterfell will die and - ideally - many of the men right now fighting for the Boltons will defect to the good guys in time to help put the Boltons down or at least be pardoned after the war so they can redeem themselves in the fight against the Others.

If things went really well most casualties in the Winterfell battles will be the core Frey and Bolton men (many of them will have to go). That could mean that 7,000+ men be still around after the coming battles.

Yes, Robb did take half his strength because the Norths full strength is 40k-45k. 

[Hugorfonics]

57 minutes ago, frenin said:

Who would find the winter  worst, the one who has experiencie many Winter or a summer Knight who never has seen the northern winter  before??

The one who lives outdoors, not indoors.

57 minutes ago, frenin said:

Smallfolk will use whatever they have if they feel threatened 

Lol, what are they, hyenas? 

No, they don't. They cower in fear bend their knees and pray for rain.

We see this in abundance in the Riverlands and it echos what Jorah or Dunk said about smallfolk. They dont care who wins the pissing contest, they just want to be left alone

57 minutes ago, frenin said:

  where the nobles made clear they wouldn't take the field?? They would just let the IB conquer  them??

When they never have taken the field after Rodricks blunder in the battle of Winterfell.

Glover is grateful for Stannis when he kicked Asha out of Deepwood, because he would never have tried.

Seemingly

57 minutes ago, frenin said:

I suppose that cultural differences, slavery and  giving your women etc, i mean, you're not trying to say that the reavers and  the Old Way are actually an improve right??

For the smallfolk? Yea, sure.

Slavery is not Ironborn culture, as Victarion laments and all of Westeros gives up their women from north of the wall to the beaches of Dorne

57 minutes ago, frenin said:

The other at least know how to use familiar terrain on their advantage, have superior forces  etc etc. The IB only have the surprise element on their side. Time and  logistics are on the other side.

Genghis had familiar terrain? He conquered from the Pacfic to the Danube! Its not all steppes. Superior forces? He conquered China and India, now Im not sure how many people they had but since its China and India Ill assume they had the superior forces lol

[Lord Varys]

16 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

About 20k have died in total - both in the North and on Robb’s southron campaign. There are another 20k or so available at this point, if the right leader arrives to call them forth.

Nah, that's too many corpses. Roose took a couple of thousand Northmen back from the Twins - men who were part of Robb's original about 20,000 men.

And it seems clear that not all Karstark men dispersing nor all Northmen defeated at Duskendale are dead. There would be number of scattered Northmen in the Riverlands - just as there were quite a few scattered Northmen survivors after Rodrik's defeat at Winterfell - men who later join, for the most part, Stannis' host with a few of them also joining the Boltons at Winterfell.

16 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

4k with Stannis, about 5k with Roose, maybe 5k with Manderly, maybe 3k Skagosi, a few thousand more Ryswells and Dustins, and assorted others scattered across the Northern lordships.

And here you make the mistake to actually count Roose's men - who, for the most part, were original Robb's men and helped Roose put down their fellow Northmen at the Red Wedding - as new men.

31 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

It's their home, they will always have the time, especially in a kingdom so big. I really can't see a scenario in which the iron born start marching inland, whilst leaving their ships behind. A long march through the cold north would be exhausting for a seafaring people. 

Since Balon apparently planned to conquer the North he must have had some such plans, regardless whether you can imagine that or not...

And considering there seem to be quite a few waterways in the Rills there is a chance that the Ironborn could have done a variation of Harwyn's ploy in securing at least that region of the North.

31 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

But we dont know whether the dustins and ryswell have actually marshalled their men. The distance between barowton and Moat Cailin is quite far. No doubt dustin scouts are keeping an eye on the iron born, and if the iron born decide to march on the town, the Dustin cavalry can simply use the advantage of land knowledge and horses to hinder their march. And the iron born does perform poorly when defending against a cavalry charge.

There is nothing that indicates that Lady Dustin kept an eye on them - might be, but I actually believe she only bestirred herself after Roose informed her via raven that he was coming back and expected her to clear the way for him - which she and the Ryswells helped to do.

31 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

Well the iron born don't even have a sizeable army. Victorian has the core of the iron born strength at moat cailin, and he is surrounded by two of the wealthiest (fertile land as well) houses in the north. Asha would likely have 2k-3k iron born at deepwood motte, whilst dagmar has less than that at torhens square. Whilst no doubt balon has a reserve at the iron islands. 

We don't have a good way to figure out those numbers yet. We don't know how many men man the 100 ships in the Iron Fleet (which is only the personal fleet of House Greyjoy), meaning we actually have no clue how many men Vic has with him in Slaver's Bay right now. We can make guesses based on the size of the ships, but we don't know how large they are, unfortunately.

31 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

They won't act unless the Iron born attack their holdings/lands. You've got ryswell,dustin,manderly watching moat Cailin. Whilst the force at depwood motte is so isolated it won't risk moving inland where it could be surrounded by Northmen. Same for torhens square. They ahvent got enough men to even wage an inland war. 

Again, apparently Balon thought he had those men, since he had a plan to do just that.

31 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

Can they really evade pitched battles when they are marching in unknown land? sneaking around land they dont know whilst mounted scouts that are 4x faster than your average iron born footmen are patrolling the land. Hit and run tactics only work when you are the defender or you are the attacker with cavalry, which the iron born dont have. Scottish highlanders would use hit and run tactics but on the mountains, and barrowton doesn't have any mountains, its a plain open field.

They can the way they did when they took the Northern castles they did. Theon showed how it is done, despite the fact that he overdid it.

Hit and run also works if you are on foot - you just have to be able to sneak up and crush the enemy, before they can fight back. Robb clearly took most of the Northern cavalry down south, anyway, so they would be on pretty equal footing there, perhaps even with a slight Ironborn advantage (if Balon were to bring over the houses from Great Wyk living far away from the sea - those would be decent riders).

The Northmen knowing the land would only be an advantage if they were on the offensive - which they would not be. Nor would it help them to retake castles that were already taken and defended by garrisons.

31 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

You need a very large force to do that in a land so big. And dont forget cavalry to top the villagers from running.

Where should they run? The next village which is likely dozens of miles away? Even if they can run away, the Ironborn could seize their winter provisions and burn their homes, ensuring the starve and freeze to death in winter. Giving the North more and more homeless refugees in winter is not going to make trouble for the Ironborn, it would cause unrest in those regions not yet under Ironborn rule since houses like the Karstarks and the Umbers don't have any food to share. There would be food riots and the like there, if any homeless Northmen were migrating there.

31 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

My guess is that Vic had 10k men at the moat, since the iron born can raise around 15k men. Manderly claims to be able to raise 10k (more like 5k-7k) Whilst dustin can no doubt raise as many men as bolton did, and ryswell maybe as many as the karstarks and umbers. That's around 10k-13k. And remember men are more motivated to fight when they are being invaded by foreigners. 

We have no canonical information as to how many men the Ironborn can raise in total, nor do we know how many men the various houses contributed to Robb's army - meaning that it is very difficult to figure out how many reserves any of those have left even if we had accurate numbers on their technical potential (which we don't).

31 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

You never know. They might share a decent relationship with each other due to their proximity. And no doubt lots of trade happens between barrowton and white harbour. Youd be surprised how neighbours would band together in order to fight the common foe. When china was full of warlords. The communist and republicans banded together in order to fight the Japanese.

Well, we don't see any indication that they do any banding together never mind what you think might be possible. In fact, right now the Northmen are fighting each other, they do not band together to, you know, defend the Wall against the Others - their most dangerous common enemy.

31 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

Manderly is more likely to take moat cailin for himself. Seeing as how balon was dead and Vic left the moat.

But the entire scenario I'm talking about here - the only scenario in which a 'the Ironborn try to conquer the North' scenario makes sense - is a scenario in which Balon Greyjoy does not die. Only then would his conquest continue. And if it continued then we would have a scenario where the Ironborn would, in force, stand against a Bolton/Frey army trying to cross the Neck to go North - a scenario where it is not likely that the crannogmen or the Stark loyalists in the North would side with the Boltons/Freys.

The Ironborn could end up in a position where the role Stannis is later playing is played by Balon - possibly with Asha negotiating something like that.

31 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

Yes, Robb did take half his strength because the Norths full strength is 40k-45k. 

Those are not canonical numbers, either. Even those role play game numbers are presented as factually correct numbers - they are in-universe numbers of more or less informed people. But we do not know how good the knowledge the Westerosi have about their own military capabilities are.

Not to mention that as 'total numbers' they would be, in the end, only as good as the willingness of the various lords involved to really raise THEIR ENTIRE STRENGTH. How likely is it that any lord would ever bother to raise his entire strength. He has nothing to gain by completely depopulating his lands, especially if that is going to take a lot of time (which would be especially true for the North).

Even for the Manderlys we have no indication that they have been amassing troops since, let's say, the fall of Winterfell in ACoK. If we had such an indication then they really should have a pretty powerful host right now. They still have the potential to raise a decent host by drafting townsfolk and refugees, etc. but while we don't know how large a contingent of quality men they sent with Robb we really can make no good guesses there (and there must have been a decent number of men, considering the fact that both sons of Lord Wyman accompanied them - they would not have wanted to be join Robb and look as if they were coming with their breeches down...).

[The Young Maester]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Since Balon apparently planned to conquer the North he must have had some such plans, regardless whether you can imagine that or not...

Balon did have a plan for the North. It was to take Moat Cailin, deepwood motet and other coastal castles. Whilst also securing the highly valuable timber of the north. This was his plan, if he had a broader plan he would've told Vic and Asha. Balon is probably the worst strategist out of all the contending kings (joffrey dont count cuz he is a child king). Even Robb was a better strategist. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

And considering there seem to be quite a few waterways in the Rills there is a chance that the Ironborn could have done a variation of Harwyn's ploy in securing at least that region of the North.

 Yes, you do have a river or two in the Rills but thats about it. It's not the Riverlands where you can completely abuse the rivers to conquer an entire kingdom. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

There is nothing that indicates that Lady Dustin kept an eye on them - might be, but I actually believe she only bestirred herself after Roose informed her via raven that he was coming back and expected her to clear the way for him - which she and the Ryswells helped to do.

Lady Dustin seems like an Iron Lady, and she isnt incompetent. Only a fool wouldnt have scouts keeping an eye on the large iron born force close to your lands.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

We don't have a good way to figure out those numbers yet. We don't know how many men man the 100 ships in the Iron Fleet (which is only the personal fleet of House Greyjoy), meaning we actually have no clue how many men Vic has with him in Slaver's Bay right now. We can make guesses based on the size of the ships, but we don't know how large they are, unfortunately.

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

We have no canonical information as to how many men the Ironborn can raise in total, nor do we know how many men the various houses contributed to Robb's army - meaning that it is very difficult to figure out how many reserves any of those have left even if we had accurate numbers on their technical potential (which we don't).

Therefore we cant make an assumption about the norths strength. If we have been told that the Norths full strength if 45k. Then we have to imagine that half of those numbers are still alive and kicking. 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

They can the way they did when they took the Northern castles they did. Theon showed how it is done, despite the fact that he overdid it.

Theon grew up in Winterfell. 

 

 

 

1

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Hit and run also works if you are on foot - you just have to be able to sneak up and crush the enemy, before they can fight back. Robb clearly took most of the Northern cavalry down south, anyway, so they would be on pretty equal footing there, perhaps even with a slight Ironborn advantage (if Balon were to bring over the houses from Great Wyk living far away from the sea - those would be decent riders).

Hit and run works on foot when you are the defender. Not when you are the attacker with zero cavalry, whilst the defender has lots of cavalry. You cant sneak up onto an enemy without outriders to hide your movements. Robb had the blackfish and around 6k cavalry, the iron born have Victorian. Robb probably did take most of the cavalry south, but he didn't take any ryswell or dustin cavalry. Ryswells a horse lord house and dustin who are quite wealthy and possibly very populated. White harbour only sent around 1.5k men south, and Wyman still boasts about having the largest heavy cavalry in the north. 500 cavalry can really really make a difference when fighting iron born who fight like they were 9th-century Vikings. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Where should they run? The next village which is likely dozens of miles away? Even if they can run away, the Ironborn could seize their winter provisions and burn their homes, ensuring the starve and freeze to death in winter. Giving the North more and more homeless refugees in winter is not going to make trouble for the Ironborn, it would cause unrest in those regions not yet under Ironborn rule since houses like the Karstarks and the Umbers don't have any food to share. There would be food riots and the like there, if any homeless Northmen were migrating there.

Thats why you take winter provisions and go flock to the nearest powerful lord. Homeless refugees are the best type of fighters in the North. They will use that anger towards the iron born and serve any lord whos willing to fight the iron born. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, we don't see any indication that they do any banding together never mind what you think might be possible. In fact, right now the Northmen are fighting each other, they do not band together to, you know, defend the Wall against the Others - their most dangerous common enemy.

Yes but you are a making a different scenario in which balon dont die which means roose never makes it north. If Manderly dosent want to collaborate with ryswell-dustins than the lannisters will remind him of the captive son they are holding. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The Ironborn could end up in a position where the role Stannis is later playing is played by Balon - possibly with Asha negotiating something like that.

That's laughable since Stannis will be in the North ready to take an empty Winterfell. Who do you think the Northmen will rally towards? The iron born conqueror whos taking their lands, the lecher lord whos trapped south of the neck, or Stannis the Lannister hater. All Stannis has to say is "I shall fix everything by killing the squids and fighting the lannisters". 

[nyser1]

Vengeance. I hate to break it to any Balon Greyjoy fans out there but he lacks competence. If he actually wanted to increase Greyjoy influence & power AND have mainland possessions, he would not have declared independence.

[Universal Sword Donor]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Even for the Manderlys we have no indication that they have been amassing troops since, let's say, the fall of Winterfell in ACoK. If we had such an indication then they really should have a pretty powerful host right now. They still have the potential to raise a decent host by drafting townsfolk and refugees, etc. but while we don't know how large a contingent of quality men they sent with Robb we really can make no good guesses there (and there must have been a decent number of men, considering the fact that both sons of Lord Wyman accompanied them - they would not have wanted to be join Robb and look as if they were coming with their breeches down...).

We do actually thanks to Davos:

“Any boy stands five feet tall can find a place in his lordship’s barracks, long as he can hold a spear.”
He’s raising men, then. That might be good … or bad, depending. ”

Robett Glover is in the city trying to raise men too but without luck. The guys at the bar Davos visits are talking about Umbers and other people raising troops as well.

 

[frenin]

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

The one who lives outdoors, not indoors.

If the IB were to have most of the Castles, aye, holding 3 castles and  a ruin, well hmm, they are still quite fucked.

 

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Lol, what are they, hyenas? 

If needed be.

 

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

No, they don't. They cower in fear bend their knees and pray for rain.

We see this in abundance in the Riverlands and it echos what Jorah or Dunk said about smallfolk. They dont care who wins the pissing contest, they just want to be left alone

Tell that to the Dornish and  to the northern kamikazes in winter. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

When they never have taken the field after Rodricks blunder in the battle of Winterfell.

Glover is grateful for Stannis when he kicked Asha out of Deepwood, because he would never have tried.

Seemingly

So, after the Starks are dead and  the North falls in confusion  and disarray??

 

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

For the smallfolk? Yea, sure.

Of course, reavers and  old way is better for those who were submitted, lmao.

 

 

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Slavery is not Ironborn culture, as Victarion laments and all of Westeros gives up their women from north of the wall to the beaches of Dorne

What are thralls then if not slaves then?? I didn't know all Westeros uses salt  wives either.

 

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Genghis had familiar terrain? He conquered from the Pacfic to the Danube! Its not all steppes. Superior forces? He conquered China and India, now Im not sure how many people they had but since its China and India Ill assume they had the superior forces lol

Balon  is not Genghis, comparing Balon  to Genghis is like comparing Edmure with Alexander the Great.

[Hugorfonics]

3 hours ago, frenin said:

Tell that to the Dornish and  to the northern kamikazes in winter. 

Dorne is ruled by ancient houses of lords and princes, smallfolk have no say in their wars or rulers.

What the hell is a northern kamikaze?

3 hours ago, frenin said:

So, after the Starks are dead and  the North falls in confusion  and disarray??

Yea. Well, Robb was alive

3 hours ago, frenin said:

Of course, reavers and  old way is better for those who were submitted, lmao.

It cant get much worse. Think of the poachers Jorah sold into slavery. Or Ramsays mother, or his mothers husband. Or all the girls that Ramsay has terrorized.

At least the children of thralls will have a say in their life. Maybe a vote in the kingsmoot, or even a chance to run as king.

3 hours ago, frenin said:

What are thralls then if not slaves then??

Thralls, lol. 

They can't be bought or sold, no auctioning no breeding.

A child of a thrall is ironborn, not just a free man but one of their own. 

Its different.

3 hours ago, frenin said:

I didn't know all Westeros uses salt  wives either.

They don't. Some have concubines or paramours who get treated lavishly yet have no real security. Most have whores camp followers or girl friends, like Shae. And most meet an unfortunate end, because of their position, like Shae.

Salt wives are different, its your wife. Theres no hiding around, and its in the open. They are together like they were when the unionized their marriage infront of the eyes of god.

In a world of political marriages and loveless lives, its useful to have someone you actually want to marry

3 hours ago, frenin said:

Balon  is not Genghis, comparing Balon  to Genghis is like comparing Edmure with Alexander the Great.

Woah. First Balon now Edmure?

Time and time again has Edmue proven that his loyalty lies with the citizens of the Riverlands. Depsite the horrific state it is in, im confident Edmure saved more lives by positioning his troops as he did. 

Plus, man beat Tywin in battle. Defeated the fucking Mountain who rides the vanguard

[Free Northman Reborn]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nah, that's too many corpses. Roose took a couple of thousand Northmen back from the Twins - men who were part of Robb's original about 20,000 men.

And it seems clear that not all Karstark men dispersing nor all Northmen defeated at Duskendale are dead. There would be number of scattered Northmen in the Riverlands - just as there were quite a few scattered Northmen survivors after Rodrik's defeat at Winterfell - men who later join, for the most part, Stannis' host with a few of them also joining the Boltons at Winterfell.

And here you make the mistake to actually count Roose's men - who, for the most part, were original Robb's men and helped Roose put down their fellow Northmen at the Red Wedding - as new men.

No. I take the total deaths to date and add the total still available. Based on the best information in the books, 19500 Northmen went South and 4000 Northmen returned. So 15500 were dead or MIA in the South.

I then assume roughly 4000 Northmen have died in total in the North in the series, between all the Ironborn attacks, the Bolton-Manderly war in the Hornwood lands and Rodriks battle at Winterfell.

So about 20k total Northern casualties to date. If we are really generous, the losses in the North could be as low as maybe 2000, bringing total casualties down to 18k to date. But 18-20k is the plausible range. 
 

By default then, any remaining Northern troops - being alive, not dead - need to be counted on top of the casualties, to calculate the North’s full strength.

[frenin]

26 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Dorne is ruled by ancient houses of lords and princes, smallfolk have no say in their wars or rulers.

Is that so?? Daeron would've ruled Dorne if it wasn't for the Dornishmen, who in fact decidedthey did not want him as their sovereign.

 

28 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

What the hell is a northern kamikaze?

4 hours ago, frenin said:

Northeners tend to choose suicidal paths in winter to spare their familes another mouth to feed, from the northeners who sell themselves as slaves, or sell their families, to the winter wolves, they don't like dying by freeze their arses ans as the winter wolves showed, they have zero regards for their lives.

31 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Yea. Well, Robb was alive

4 hours ago, frenin said:

And in the south.

 

32 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

It cant get much worse. Think of the poachers Jorah sold into slavery. Or Ramsays mother, or his mothers husband. Or all the girls that Ramsay has terrorized.

At least the children of thralls will have a say in their life. Maybe a vote in the kingsmoot, or even a chance to run as king.

Lmao, slavery is good because some people are miserable, no one wants to be slave and no one will care about a kingsmoot they are not even familiar with. They are northeners not Ironborn.

 

33 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Thralls, lol. 

They can't be bought or sold, no auctioning no breeding.

A child of a thrall is ironborn, not just a free man but one of their own. 

Its different.

It's a less awful version of slavery, a version only you seem to find acceptable.

 

 

40 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

They don't. Some have concubines or paramours who get treated lavishly yet have no real security. Most have whores camp followers or girl friends, like Shae. And most meet an unfortunate end, because of their position, like Shae.

Salt wives are different, its your wife. Theres no hiding around, and its in the open. They are together like they were when the unionized their marriage infront of the eyes of god.

In a world of political marriages and loveless lives, its useful to have someone you actually want to marry

Are you actually trying to sell me its goodnesses??

47 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Woah. First Balon now Edmure?

 Time and time again has Edmue proven that his loyalty lies with the citizens of the Riverlands. Depsite the horrific state it is in, im confident Edmure saved more lives by positioning his troops as he did. 

Plus, man beat Tywin in battle. Defeated the fucking Mountain who rides the vanguard

Then Edmure is Alexander the Great??

It makes no sense you keep saying Genghis, Balon is stupid, he is noted for his idiocy and blindness for those things he didn't want to see by everyone, Genghis could conquer the North, Balon was doomed.

[frenin]

6 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

 That's laughable since Stannis will be in the North ready to take an empty Winterfell. Who do you think the Northmen will rally towards? The iron born conqueror whos taking their lands, the lecher lord whos trapped south of the neck, or Stannis the Lannister hater. All Stannis has to say is "I shall fix everything by killing the squids and fighting the lannisters". 

Even without Stannis, the idea that any northern lord would welcome the IB as the First men did with the Andals is a laughable scenario.

 

[Lord Varys]

17 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

Balon did have a plan for the North. It was to take Moat Cailin, deepwood motet and other coastal castles. Whilst also securing the highly valuable timber of the north. This was his plan, if he had a broader plan he would've told Vic and Asha. Balon is probably the worst strategist out of all the contending kings (joffrey dont count cuz he is a child king). Even Robb was a better strategist.

No, we were through that some pages back. Balon either wanted the entire North or as much as he could swallow. He expected Winterfell to defy him for about a year or so - which only makes sense if he intended to besiege and eventually take it.

How he could have hoped to conquer lands in the east of the North I really don't see - but this isn't evidence that he may not have tried after he had secured his new domains in the west.

17 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

 Yes, you do have a river or two in the Rills but thats about it. It's not the Riverlands where you can completely abuse the rivers to conquer an entire kingdom. 

We know next to nothing about the Rills - but there are sign that the Ironborn may have boats and ships light enough to make use of them in some military capacity in shallow rivers.

No guarantee that this would work - but we cannot dismiss it out of hand.

17 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

Lady Dustin seems like an Iron Lady, and she isnt incompetent. Only a fool wouldnt have scouts keeping an eye on the large iron born force close to your lands.

But as you said - they were pretty far away. And I actually doubt that Vic and his Iron Fleet men would march up from the Fever and Moat Cailin to attack Barrowton. An attack on those lands would likely have come from the sea - with a new contingent of troops.

17 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

Hit and run works on foot when you are the defender. Not when you are the attacker with zero cavalry, whilst the defender has lots of cavalry. You cant sneak up onto an enemy without outriders to hide your movements. Robb had the blackfish and around 6k cavalry, the iron born have Victorian. Robb probably did take most of the cavalry south, but he didn't take any ryswell or dustin cavalry. Ryswells a horse lord house and dustin who are quite wealthy and possibly very populated. White harbour only sent around 1.5k men south, and Wyman still boasts about having the largest heavy cavalry in the north. 500 cavalry can really really make a difference when fighting iron born who fight like they were 9th-century Vikings. 

Again, they would attack castles piece by piece, not challenge whatever army a lord could amass at a crucial place. If Lady Dustin or the Ryswell marshaled an army at a particular castle to protect that, they would target the place that are now less/no longer defended.

Could mean that Barrowton would thus be able to hold out longer, but the outlying Dustin keeps and castle would then be taken or destroyed. And they would, of course, burn all the empty or not so empty (but defenseless) villages and settlements they could find.

17 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

Thats why you take winter provisions and go flock to the nearest powerful lord. Homeless refugees are the best type of fighters in the North. They will use that anger towards the iron born and serve any lord whos willing to fight the iron born. 

You mean women and children and old men are great warriors? That doesn't make sense. Most able-bodied men would be dead with Robb, Stark butcherers at Roose's side, or scattered in the Riverlands.

The North is a vast land and empty land - most settlements seem to be far apart from each other. This is not the kind of place where you quickly reach the next strong castle - and even strong castles like Torrhen's Square or Deepwood Motte (who made it on the map) could not stand against the Ironborn.

In fact, if you read the description of Barrowton in TWoIaF it is explicitly said that it is a curious town in the middle of nowhere. Chances are not that high that there are many villages close to Barrowton allowing the people there to run to the town in a couple of days.

17 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

Yes but you are a making a different scenario in which balon dont die which means roose never makes it north. If Manderly dosent want to collaborate with ryswell-dustins than the lannisters will remind him of the captive son they are holding. 

But the Lannisters are actually rather likely to make an alliance with Balon if their newly appointed Warden of the North cannot so much as enter the North - or is even slain while trying to cross the Neck. If Vic and his people threw the Boltons and Freys back, we can easily see the crannogment taking advantage of the confusion and killing most/all of the survivors with their poisoned arrows.

Even Robb only made plans to return back North and retake the Moat once he learned that Balon was dead. If he hadn't died his plan to retake the Moat would have likely not worked - and even if it did: Roose would never have the help of the crannogmen in his plan to return back home.

17 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

That's laughable since Stannis will be in the North ready to take an empty Winterfell. Who do you think the Northmen will rally towards? The iron born conqueror whos taking their lands, the lecher lord whos trapped south of the neck, or Stannis the Lannister hater. All Stannis has to say is "I shall fix everything by killing the squids and fighting the lannisters". 

Well, with Balon still up there it would be a different scenario. We cannot watch that far ahead, but one could easily see Tywin or Cersei/Mace deciding to actually make common cause with Balon if Roose fails to return North and Balon actually offers to land in force at the Shadow Tower, march to Castle Black, and take care of Stannis for good and all.

16 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

We do actually thanks to Davos:

“Any boy stands five feet tall can find a place in his lordship’s barracks, long as he can hold a spear.”
He’s raising men, then. That might be good … or bad, depending. ”

Robett Glover is in the city trying to raise men too but without luck. The guys at the bar Davos visits are talking about Umbers and other people raising troops as well.

True enough. I meant that there is no indication the Manderly have raised a sizable army that is as visible as, say, Robb's army at/around Winterfell, which caused the Winter Town to be essentially bursting.

If Lord Wyman still has room for new recruits in his barracks this implies he doesn't have more men than he can house right now. But a proper sized army would mean White Harbor would be fuller than it is right now (although it is pretty crowded) or that they would even camp outside the city walls.

12 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

No. I take the total deaths to date and add the total still available. Based on the best information in the books, 19500 Northmen went South and 4000 Northmen returned. So 15500 were dead or MIA in the South.

But missing in action does not equal dead, does it? A large portion of the Karstark contingent - many of the men who defected Robb after he executed Lord Rickard - is still a large. The same would go for the army that was defeated at Duskendale. Medieval battles didn't result in the death/murder of all/most enemy combatants.

12 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I then assume roughly 4000 Northmen have died in total in the North in the series, between all the Ironborn attacks, the Bolton-Manderly war in the Hornwood lands and Rodriks battle at Winterfell.

Well, you have no basis for that assumption, do you? And it doesn't make sense to list all those dead as people who could and would figure into the military numbers - the men Theon and the Ironborn killed at the Stoney Shore, for instance, were, for the most part, sheep who would have never marched into battle. Those dead have no place in estimations about military strength. The same goes for dead women and children.

[Free Northman Reborn]

27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

No, we were through that some pages back. Balon either wanted the entire North or as much as he could swallow. He expected Winterfell to defy him for about a year or so - which only makes sense if he intended to besiege and eventually take it.

How he could have hoped to conquer lands in the east of the North I really don't see - but this isn't evidence that he may not have tried after he had secured his new domains in the west.

We know next to nothing about the Rills - but there are sign that the Ironborn may have boats and ships light enough to make use of them in some military capacity in shallow rivers.

No guarantee that this would work - but we cannot dismiss it out of hand.

But as you said - they were pretty far away. And I actually doubt that Vic and his Iron Fleet men would march up from the Fever and Moat Cailin to attack Barrowton. An attack on those lands would likely have come from the sea - with a new contingent of troops.

Again, they would attack castles piece by piece, not challenge whatever army a lord could amass at a crucial place. If Lady Dustin or the Ryswell marshaled an army at a particular castle to protect that, they would target the place that are now less/no longer defended.

Could mean that Barrowton would thus be able to hold out longer, but the outlying Dustin keeps and castle would then be taken or destroyed. And they would, of course, burn all the empty or not so empty (but defenseless) villages and settlements they could find.

You mean women and children and old men are great warriors? That doesn't make sense. Most able-bodied men would be dead with Robb, Stark butcherers at Roose's side, or scattered in the Riverlands.

The North is a vast land and empty land - most settlements seem to be far apart from each other. This is not the kind of place where you quickly reach the next strong castle - and even strong castles like Torrhen's Square or Deepwood Motte (who made it on the map) could not stand against the Ironborn.

In fact, if you read the description of Barrowton in TWoIaF it is explicitly said that it is a curious town in the middle of nowhere. Chances are not that high that there are many villages close to Barrowton allowing the people there to run to the town in a couple of days.

But the Lannisters are actually rather likely to make an alliance with Balon if their newly appointed Warden of the North cannot so much as enter the North - or is even slain while trying to cross the Neck. If Vic and his people threw the Boltons and Freys back, we can easily see the crannogment taking advantage of the confusion and killing most/all of the survivors with their poisoned arrows.

Even Robb only made plans to return back North and retake the Moat once he learned that Balon was dead. If he hadn't died his plan to retake the Moat would have likely not worked - and even if it did: Roose would never have the help of the crannogmen in his plan to return back home.

Well, with Balon still up there it would be a different scenario. We cannot watch that far ahead, but one could easily see Tywin or Cersei/Mace deciding to actually make common cause with Balon if Roose fails to return North and Balon actually offers to land in force at the Shadow Tower, march to Castle Black, and take care of Stannis for good and all.

True enough. I meant that there is no indication the Manderly have raised a sizable army that is as visible as, say, Robb's army at/around Winterfell, which caused the Winter Town to be essentially bursting.

If Lord Wyman still has room for new recruits in his barracks this implies he doesn't have more men than he can house right now. But a proper sized army would mean White Harbor would be fuller than it is right now (although it is pretty crowded) or that they would even camp outside the city walls.

But missing in action does not equal dead, does it? A large portion of the Karstark contingent - many of the men who defected Robb after he executed Lord Rickard - is still a large. The same would go for the army that was defeated at Duskendale. Medieval battles didn't result in the death/murder of all/most enemy combatants.

Well, you have no basis for that assumption, do you? And it doesn't make sense to list all those dead as people who could and would figure into the military numbers - the men Theon and the Ironborn killed at the Stoney Shore, for instance, were, for the most part, sheep who would have never marched into battle. Those dead have no place in estimations about military strength. The same goes for dead women and children.

Who said anything about women and children? I mean soldiers.

As for the MIA. They are scattered across the South, if still alive. They didn’t return North with Roose. So they would not be included in the men still available in the North. If they DID end up returning at some point, then they would add even more men to those already in the North.

[Hugorfonics]

12 hours ago, frenin said:

Is that so?? Daeron would've ruled Dorne if it wasn't for the Dornishmen, who in fact decidedthey did not want him as their sovereign.

Because their soverign is alive, rallying support and supplying arms

12 hours ago, frenin said:

Northeners tend to choose suicidal paths in winter to spare their familes another mouth to feed, from the northeners who sell themselves as slaves, or sell their families, to the winter wolves, they don't like dying by freeze their arses ans as the winter wolves showed, they have zero regards for their lives.

Thats just a story. Never happened in the series.

Winter Wolves were led by Stark

12 hours ago, frenin said:

And in the south.

What are you arguing? I said Starks bannermen havent and will not take the field with no one to lead them. And as you say, Robbs in the south

12 hours ago, frenin said:

Lmao, slavery is good because some people are miserable, no one wants to be slave and no one will care about a kingsmoot they are not even familiar with. They are northeners not Ironborn.

If their father is ironborn then so are they. Its like an American lol

12 hours ago, frenin said:

It's a less awful version of slavery, a version only you seem to find acceptable.

I do not.

I also dont find serfdom acceptable.

However if I have to choose which horrible practice I find more acceptable, its the one where you are master of your own destiny 

12 hours ago, frenin said:

Are you actually trying to sell me its goodnesses??

I am. Its romantic. Kinda, lol.

Look, monogamy is ideal, but honestly it can be difficult and anything short of expected monogamy is a betrayal.

If they know its a political marriage then why should their side piece be unhappy? Like Darrio, he understands hes lowborn but still wants to wake up next to his love every day.

And lets not pretend that regular marriages arent sexiest in nature as well, as the gender relations thread is exploring

 

No one compares to Alex or Khan. Not in real life nor in fiction

Eta