Who killed Jon Arryn?

[Dreadscythe95]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure. Although one has to keep in mind that war may have not be what Lysa and Littlefinger ever wanted. They wanted to ensure their involvement in Jon's murder is never found out and they wanted Petyr to rise high enough so that he can marry Lysa without causing a scandal that challenges their hold over the Vale. That there is war in the end is due to crucial things completely out of Petyr's control - like Tyrion's arrest, Jaime attacking Ned, Ned telling Cersei what he knows, Robert's death, etc.

Yeah I think it is well established at this point that Littlefinger doesn't have a plan about everything, His strategy is to create chaos and then he skillfully plays chess to climb into the ranks of power, wealth and influence...

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In this context. He does not know yet what Littlefinger wants in relation to the Stark-Lannister tensions. Who does he back? What is he aiming at in the short timeframe that's going to be the difference between war and peace. The idea that he has no idea at all what Littlefinger wants is not very likely. Even Tyrion knows that.

What's your evidence that Varys has no idea what Littlefinger is doing with the finances? The whole thing about the Crown paying money to non-existing staff in the dungeons seems to be something Varys would be very aware of (considering that he happens to be Rugen). It is also not really clear whether the finance thing is something that is (going to be) all that relevant to the plot - aside from the fact that the Crown being in debt clearly is a problem for the present administration.

Do we know for a fact that Varys doesn't know where Sansa is? I don't think we do. He claims this is the case. There are ways to avoid the little birds, and Littlefinger knows how to do that, but Varys might certainly have agents in the Eyrie and the Vale. Not to mention that his birds (or he himself) may have overseen or noticed Littlefinger's interest in Sansa.

The question how he got the note into Sansa's room in Maegor's is also interesting - could he do that without Varys knowing? Might be ... or not.

No matter how you rationalize it, Littlefinger is running circles around Varys. Varys is supposed to know everybody's secrets, but he does not know this is the one man who is interfering with all of his plans. I agree that Varys does not know where LF's interests lie in the Stark-Lann conflict, or what his ultimate goal is. He does know, however, that LF's meddling is interfering with Illyrio's plans big time. So a smart Master of Whispers would make it a priority to find out what LF is up to, but there is no indication that Varys does this. He doesn't know what LF is doing in Game, and he still does not know what he's doing at the end of Storm. And he doesn't even seem to realize that LF is the only person of importance that he has not infiltrated.

There is no suggestion that Varys realizes the extent to LF's machinations with the crown's gold. If he did, it would be a simple matter to expose him and see him executed. A few unpaid gaolers is peanuts compared to what's really going on, but it should be enough for a smart MoW to take a closer look at LF, which Varys never does.

There was virtually zero direct contact between LF and Sansa until her disappearance. I believe maybe two conversations, which would certainly have been reported to Varys, but not by little birds because they both took place out in the open and in the presence of her septa. If Varys has agents in the Vale, they would have reported the sudden appearance of LF's daughter, which might draw Varys' interest, but this would be him scrambling to learn the truth after the fact, not divulging secrets to undo plots like he is paid to do.

And the note is an interesting puzzle. If Varys was truly on the ball, he would have had a bird watching Sansa as well, and he would have known who delivered the note, who they answered to and who was behind it all. He didn't, or else the whole hairnet plot would have been foiled. Littlefinger runs circles around Varys.

 

[Lord Varys]

On 10/10/2019 at 4:30 PM, John Suburbs said:

No matter how you rationalize it, Littlefinger is running circles around Varys.

I'm not rationalizing. I'm questioning the depth of knowledge you think you have about both Varys' and Littlefinger's motivations an involvement with each other.

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Varys is supposed to know everybody's secrets, but he does not know this is the one man who is interfering with all of his plans.

Varys doesn't know everything - and he and the author and the readers are/should be very aware of that. Littlefinger (and other smart people like Olenna) have found a way to minimize their exposure to the little birds.

But preventing Varys' agents from hearing everything you say isn't the same as Varys not figuring out what you are up to - without having explicit proof.

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I agree that Varys does not know where LF's interests lie in the Stark-Lann conflict, or what his ultimate goal is.

Littlefinger's ultimate goal is advancement and power. That's as clear as snow. How he tries to get what he wants - and to what lengths he is willing to go to get what he wants - is more difficult to figure out or predict.

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He does know, however, that LF's meddling is interfering with Illyrio's plans big time.

Not big time, as per his own assessment. He is a nuisance that meddled with things but as per Varys' own admission Ned Stark is the one who gives Varys sleepless nights, not Littlefinger.

And Ned is the most vexing problem for Varys - presumably because he knows if Ned learns about the incest he will tell Robert and Robert will believe him. Littlefinger would never tell Robert and Robert wouldn't believe Littlefinger if he ever told him.

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So a smart Master of Whispers would make it a priority to find out what LF is up to, but there is no indication that Varys does this. He doesn't know what LF is doing in Game, and he still does not know what he's doing at the end of Storm. And he doesn't even seem to realize that LF is the only person of importance that he has not infiltrated.

That seems to be a giant leap at this point. Does Varys know that Littlefinger was behind Ned's execution? He could not prevent it from happening, but does this mean he didn't figure that Littlefinger was the one who messed with both Cersei's and Varys' own machinations to prevent an all-out war between the Starks and the Iron Throne.

What Varys knows or doesn't know is ASoS is a complete mystery. We are not close to him in that book, we don't know if knows about Joffrey's murder, the machinations behind Sansa's wedding, and her disappearance.

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There is no suggestion that Varys realizes the extent to LF's machinations with the crown's gold. If he did, it would be a simple matter to expose him and see him executed. A few unpaid gaolers is peanuts compared to what's really going on, but it should be enough for a smart MoW to take a closer look at LF, which Varys never does.

Why should Varys want to see Littlefinger executed? Is there any indication that he wants to do that? I don't think anything in the text indicates that.

It seems Varys and Littlefinger would be in cahoots in the gaoler ploy - that is the only actual embezzling that's hinted at in the books at this point.

How much Varys knows about Littlefinger is also not clear. Him being able to keep certain crucial things from Varys isn't the same was Varys not knowing anything about his plans and intentions.

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There was virtually zero direct contact between LF and Sansa until her disappearance. I believe maybe two conversations, which would certainly have been reported to Varys, but not by little birds because they both took place out in the open and in the presence of her septa. If Varys has agents in the Vale, they would have reported the sudden appearance of LF's daughter, which might draw Varys' interest, but this would be him scrambling to learn the truth after the fact, not divulging secrets to undo plots like he is paid to do.

Varys doesn't actually work for Robert/Joffrey/Tommen, does he? He could know about the Sansa plan - and decide to not inform anyone about it because he knows where Sansa is going to be thereafter.

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And the note is an interesting puzzle. If Varys was truly on the ball, he would have had a bird watching Sansa as well, and he would have known who delivered the note, who they answered to and who was behind it all. He didn't, or else the whole hairnet plot would have been foiled. Littlefinger runs circles around Varys.

Why would Varys want to foil the hairnet plot?

There are not little birds in the walls of Maegor's Holdfast - Sansa is safe from them while she was imprisoned there. However, the servants taking care of Sansa could also report to Varys. Varys could know about the note Littlefinger sent her - or not. I'm not saying he did. But that's a possibility.

[The Sunland Lord]

Lysa Arryn, his wife. She poisoned him.