Jump to content

Harrenhal's tourney, then what?


rotting sea cow

Recommended Posts

6 hours ago, SFDanny said:

First, the quote is proof of in-world beliefs that the alliances where explicitly political and aimed at the Targaryens. Now, one can disagree with those beliefs, but one cannot dismiss them with a wave of the hand saying they did not exist. I think much of the evidence I've cited and much more supports the beliefs of these "misguided men."

 We also have in the quote the refutation of their views from a pro-Baratheon/Lannister source that gives us the view that seems - writing his history for King Robert and his heirs -   to support the idea it is perfectly acceptable for the High Lords to have formed these ties in anticipation of the "Mad King's crimes." The alliances are long in making and predate any crime against the High Lords that we know. Not that they were an alliance to support each other economically. Not that they were an outbreak of love matches that got out of hand. But that they were formed to work together to work against at least one Targaryen king. This historian believes such a rendering of this history is acceptable to Robert's eyes. Hint. Clue. Evidence.

That's not what the quote  says, it's what you want it to say, The quote  is just stating a fact, that those ties  Rickard made eventually served to act against the Targs, not that they were specifically created to act against the Targs.

If you want to look a hint, you must ask yourlsef, who were those people who "misguidely" blame Rickard for getting killed and  why.

You're filling a void that does not exist, there is no evidence to support what you says.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I post the above quote to show one more bit of evidence, one more hint, and one more clue that the Rickard's "southron ambitions" was not just a case of a new fad among the High Lords of Westeros.

Oh, that quote only references the fact that Lord Rickard sort of accidentally laid the groundwork for Jon Arryn's alliance. He agreed to marry Brandon to Cat, he agreed to grant Lord Robert Lyanna's hand, and he sent Ned as ward to the Eyrie.

But the man had nothing to do with Robert's and Ned's lasting friendship or the fact that Jon Arryn developed real fatherly feelings for both Robert and Ned. In fact, Jon Ned and Robert could easily have been as close as Stannis and Robert due to their different characters, and Jon could easily enough have been disgusted Robert's demeanor and his strong appetites. Then this whole thing would have been a recipe for disaster, not the successful springboard for a spontaneous rebellion.

The 'southron ambitions' term goes back to Barbrey Dustin - and she refers only to Rickard's desire to marry his heir to a woman not from the North. Whether Rickard had any other interests is at this point completely unclear. In fact, considering the Blackwood and Royce marriages in the Stark family tree Rickard's 'southron ambitions' in the marriage department are not all that unusual.

6 hours ago, SFDanny said:

First, the quote is proof of in-world beliefs that the alliances where explicitly political and aimed at the Targaryens. Now, one can disagree with those beliefs, but one cannot dismiss them with a wave of the hand saying they did not exist. I think much of the evidence I've cited and much more supports the beliefs of these "misguided men."

There is nothing in that quote that claims those 'alliances of blood and friendship' were created with the intention to enable them to act against the Targaryens. It just says Rickard laid the groundwork for something that enabled the future rebels to become rebels together when they became rebels.

The architect of Robert's Rebellion is Jon Arryn. He was the one who was friends with both Robert and Ned and he gave them means and opportunity to act while acting himself. Rickard had nothing to do with that, nor did Hoster - who forced both Ned and Jon to marry women neither of them would have married had he not forced their hands. These two men were never friends. A 'friend' wouldn't have insisted that Ned marry Catelyn, nor insisted that Jon marry a fallen woman like Lysa.

In fact, the crucial background for the Rebellion is that male friendship between Robert, Jon, and Ned. That's the crucial thing. Anything else is secondary.

6 hours ago, SFDanny said:

 We also have in the quote the refutation of their views from a pro-Baratheon/Lannister source that gives us the view that seems - writing his history for King Robert and his heirs -   to support the idea it is perfectly acceptable for the High Lords to have formed these ties in anticipation of the "Mad King's crimes." The alliances are long in making and predate any crime against the High Lords that we know. Not that they were an alliance to support each other economically. Not that they were an outbreak of love matches that got out of hand. But that they were formed to work together to work against at least one Targaryen king. This historian believes such a rendering of this history is acceptable to Robert's eyes. Hint. Clue. Evidence.

No, that's just a guy looking with hindsight on Rickard's machinations and basically saying 'Well, thank goodness that Rickard sent Ned Stark to the Eyrie, betrothed Brandon to Catelyn Tully, and agreed to marry his daughter to Robert Baratheon or else there wouldn't have been a successful rebellion.'

Nothing in the quote ascribes intentions to Lord Rickard to form an anti-Targaryen alliance. It just says that 'the alliance of blood and friendship' ensured that they would act - which isn't particularly surprising considering they wouldn't have worked together if there hadn't been a friendship.

It is overlooking that Rickard got himself and his heir and - by extension - his daughter killed, too, because the Lyanna betrothal is also the main cause for the Rebellion - at least on Robert's side. It exploded in all their faces and got Brandon and Rickard killed.

6 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Please don't insult my intelligence with any more nonsense of "nothing supports."The evidence is clearly there. If you disagree with what it tells you, that's fine. Argue why you think so, but don't tell me the evidence is not there.

Well, one could perhaps make some nuanced case that lords may have plotted against the Targaryens - although I'd still say we have no hard evidence supporting any of that. But there is not the slightest hint of evidence to indicate there is some sort of 'we all want to go back to the Seven Kingdoms' conspiracy going on there, a conspiracy that includes even more houses than Starks, Tullys, and Arryns. For that we have neither a good reason to assume it might be the case nor any textual evidence to work with. It is basically a 'wouldn't it be cool if...' theory.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/15/2019 at 2:12 PM, Lord Varys said:

The plan would have depended on what Rhaegar wanted - and considering that Rhaegar seems to have been rather reluctant and timid to openly move against his father (as we see later when he doesn't even dare/isn't even able to remove the old man when he leads his army against the rebels) the best I can guess at is that Rhaegar would have wanted to test the waters how many lords would support Rhaegar in a move to establish himself as Prince Regent 'until such a time until my royal father regain his senses' or something along those lines. The precedent for something like this would have been Aemond taking over for Aegon II while the latter was incapacitated during the Dance.

Ok, that's make sense

Quote

It cannot have been in Rhaegar's best interests to establish a precedent where a son turns against his father deposes him, nor give the lords the means to actually a depose a king they do not agree with for any reason.

Yes. What is true for a king will be also true for a lord. It would open a big can of worms.

 

Quote

The difficult thing overall would have been to get a majority of the lords on Rhaegar's side - Aerys II may have been visibly mad, but he was apparently also easily influenced and generous to those who supported him - all this could have made more lords 'Aerys fans' than Rhaegar fans. Sort of like Aegon IV apparently had a rather strong power base despite his wanton misrule, never mind that his son and heir showed much more promise as a ruler.

Certainly true. Aerys was still sane enough to understand power politics. In any case, Rhaegar seemed to show much more promise than Dareon the Good.

Quote

Doesn't mean Rhaegar couldn't have gotten half of the lords at Harrenhal on board with his plans - but half wouldn't have been nearly enough. Half would have meant war.

If the other half are indiferent or do not intervene, half is sufficient. But overall I agree

Quote

Aerys II being there clearly put an end to any of those plans. It prevented Rhaegar from openly discussing the mad dragon in the room while said dragon could actually discuss things with various crucial lords. Many a knight would have attended the tourney, but nobody was prepared for war or battle - if the king had pointed the finger at traitors the people would have obeyed his commands.

Important statement, see below.

Quote

In fact, a king doing nothing and the Realm effectively running itself should have been the wet dream of any of the great lords whose domains were far away from KL. It means they can do whatever the hell they want. Very few would have wanted to exchange the Mad King who was effectively never leaving his castle (and thus effectively only burning some of the morons who were stupid enough to hang out with or interact with him) with a king who cared.

fully agree. Having an Aegon V again would have been among the worst nightmares for many a lord.

Quote

There is pretty much no evidence for any of this, and especially this weird interpretation of the crowning of Lyanna as well as the Ashara affair sounds like a very strange interpretation to me. The idea that both a man as rash as Brandon - and a man who showed so poor political judgment as Rhaegar when crowning Lyanna - would have made calculated moves in their actions there (assuming Brandon even was the guy having an affair with Ashara, which I'm not sure he did) doesn't really ring true to me.

I agree too. If the North (or Vale) wanted to be independ, nothing prevent them to become so. The IT would need to drag half the forces of the Realm to make them bend the knee again. Just see how Dorne resisted for a long time and the Targaryens had dragons then.

What certainly the "Southrons ambitions" attemped is to create a power bloc strong enough that certain policies from the crown would be difficult to implement. Basically, prevent an Aegon the Unlikely born again.

However, at the same time, the interregional marriages likely weakened the standings of these lords within their respective regions. We see - for example - Lady Dustin resetment because she couldn't get married into the Starks and even Bolton making a crucial marriage to increase his clout. See also Walder Frey and his continuing attemp to marry into the Tullys. Etc.

 

Quote

The entire Howland-Lyanna buildup makes little sense when Rhaegar honoring Lyanna with the crown has basically nothing to do with what she may have done as mystery knight.

Why not?

 

Quote

We should not overplay this. Think of how Gyldayn talks about various men crowning various women queen of love and beauty at various tourneys. Rhaegar choosing Lyanna was unusual and somewhat of a slight towards his wife who was present, but it wasn't something completely out of line. What was was the later abduction (and marriage, if it happened publicly) of Lyanna. That would have made Rhaegar as mad or even madder than his father.

You need to put this in context. It is not a random tourney we are talking about. It is a high stake meeting that might decide the future of Westeros. Probably all lords present were prompted what was about. They went there knowing that afterwards a new king (or regent as you point out) might be proclamed. They are putting their lands and heads at stake if something goes awry. They were expected to shout for Rhaegar once he crowns his wife and then the prince they are supposed to proclaim does a crazy random act, they certainly started wondering whether it is indeed a good idea and whether Rhaegar is indeed better than his father (see reasons above)

ETA: Not for nothing we get that "moment when all the smiles died"

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Ok, that's make sense

Yes. What is true for a king will be also true for a lord. It would open a big can of worms.

And it would establish a precedent to limit the power of the monarch. A later king could then be citing 'madness' merely as a pretext to get rid of him.

A regency setting on the other hand should often happen in similar cases, anyway. If a lord or king becomes a senile fool or is ailing for months or years (think of Hoster) it is clear that people would look to the heir apparent or heir presumptive for leadership - or, in the case of the king, the Hand would step in until a regency has to be establish.

For that there could have been a majority. The forced abdiction scenario Yandel mentions as a possibility would have been a much dangerous thing.

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Certainly true. Aerys was still sane enough to understand power politics. In any case, Rhaegar seemed to show much more promise than Dareon the Good.

Did he? Daeron II is known to have had friends and allies among crucial people. Rhaegar was more of a fighter than Daeron, that's clear, but Daeron may have been more approachable. We have to keep in mind that Rhaegar was definitely not a people person, an introvert person with very few close friends who was suffering from melancholia or even depression for most of his life.

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

If the other half are indiferent or do not intervene, half is sufficient. But overall I agree

I don't think it could work if Rhaegar had only half the lords on board if there was some sort of a vote. Corlys Velaryon and the Baratheons only gave in in 101 AC because Viserys one with a landslide, sending the message that Laenor's case was hopeless. With a ruling king being forced to accepted a regency (or even deposition) we have a completely different setting. Indifference or neutrality could be as poisonous as opposition, especially if the king starts to fight back.

I can only imagine people abandoning Aerys II in droves if essentially all the lords - or nearly all the lords - at Harrenhal were to support Rhaegar in his plans.

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Important statement, see below.

fully agree. Having an Aegon V again would have been among the worst nightmares for many a lord.

Not just an Aegon V, also simply a Daeron II - or a Rhaegar I, assuming he would have liked to govern more actively.

Yandel's account of Tywin's success as Hand implies the man's politics were rather good for his fellow lords. If he and Rhaegar were to differ on that, there may have been quite a few lords who preferred Mad Aerys to an actual government.

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

I agree too. If the North (or Vale) wanted to be independ, nothing prevent them to become so. The IT would need to drag half the forces of the Realm to make them bend the knee again. Just see how Dorne resisted for a long time and the Targaryens had dragons then.

Yeah, independence is rather easily declared, and we can say that 'Rickard's power bloc' definitely had no plan whatsoever to establish independence. I mean, Jon would have known and they could have decided to depose the Targaryens and then go back to the Seven Kingdoms. Ned could have become the King in the North, Robert the new Storm King, and Jon the new King of Mountain and Vale. They were not forced to make Robert a pretender to the Iron Throne, especially since it seems Robert had to be pushed a little bit to declare himself.

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

What certainly the "Southrons ambitions" attemped is to create a power bloc strong enough that certain policies from the crown would be difficult to implement. Basically, prevent an Aegon the Unlikely born again.

That could make some sense, although for that we would have to find out where the Arryns, Starks, Tullys, etc. stood in relation to Egg's reforms. The Baratheons and Tullys definitely would have had issues with Aegon V over the marriage scandals, but how they stood in relation the reforms is unclear. After Rhaelle was betrothed and married to Ormund Baratheon, the Baratheons could have become rather loyal supporters of Aegon V again considering that this was, in the end, an even larger boon than the previous marriage contract (considering it strengthened the Targaryen blood of the main Baratheon branch, giving the Lords of the Storm's End a pretty strong claim to the Iron Throne).

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

However, at the same time, the interregional marriages likely weakened the standings of these lords within their respective regions. We see - for example - Lady Dustin resetment because she couldn't get married into the Starks and even Bolton making a crucial marriage to increase his clout. See also Walder Frey and his continuing attemp to marry into the Tullys. Etc.

That has to be considered, too. We see this kind of thing also with Torrhen's son supposedly objecting to the marriage of their sister to Lord Ronnel Arryn back after the Conquest.

The fact that it seems to be very common that the great houses often intermarry with their own (powerful) vassals (think of the many Arryn-Royce matches we have evidence for), not to mention the rather insular marriage practices of the most recent Lannister and Stark generations - marriages outside your own backyard seem to have been unusual. You either intermarry with your own bannermen or with those of your cousins who bear your own men.

Rickard Stark starting to dream big may have actually caused tensions in the North - just as the Ellyn Reyne thing (her being unable to become the Lady Lannister she wanted to be) is at the core of the problems in the West during the reign of Tytos, or Hoster's attempts to make great matches for his daughters (and brother) also poisoned that family to no small degree. Hoster must have rejected many a highborn Riverlander's daughter in favor of his Redwyne, Stark, and Lannister plans. And one really wonders who he wanted to have for Edmure. The fact that he is neither betrothed nor married in AGoT indicates Hoster may have aimed at Margaery Tyrell for him, or even Myrcella Baratheon.

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Why not?

Because I really think Rhaegar's coronation of Lyanna is unthinkable from a narrative point of view if we ignore the mystery knight buildup.

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

You need to put this in context. It is not a random tourney we are talking about. It is a high stake meeting that might decide the future of Westeros. Probably all lords present were prompted what was about. They went there knowing that afterwards a new king (or regent as you point out) might be proclamed. They are putting their lands and heads at stake if something goes awry. They were expected to shout for Rhaegar once he crowns his wife and then the prince they are supposed to proclaim does a crazy random act, they certainly started wondering whether it is indeed a good idea and whether Rhaegar is indeed better than his father (see reasons above)

ETA: Not for nothing we get that "moment when all the smiles died"

But it seems Rhaegar pulled the plug on the 'informal Great Council' thing as soon as it became known that Aerys II would attend. While there were many talks and such behind closed doors, it doesn't seem likely the issue of the king's madness were or could be properly dicussed. In that sense, I very much doubt anyone expected a great announcement at the end of the tourney.

In FaB we have Simon Dondarrion crowning Alysanne queen of love and beauty - does this mean Simon and she had affair? Probably not. Prior to that, little Daenerys is also crowned queen of love and beauty - although she is still a young girl. Now, it certainly was odd that Rhaegar did not crown his own wife - and instead chose a girl who was already betrothed - and it caused the assembled people to get confused. But as we see with Robert's public reaction to it it should, at least on the surface, have been no big deal. Only men with as prickly pride and honor as the Starks - who apparently had to read this thing as Rhaegar making improper creep advances to their sister who was not supposed to become the mistress/whore of a prince - seem to have made a big deal about that.

And even that could have been explained away in time. What made that impossible was the subsequent abduction.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Did he? Daeron II is known to have had friends and allies among crucial people. Rhaegar was more of a fighter than Daeron, that's clear, but Daeron may have been more approachable. We have to keep in mind that Rhaegar was definitely not a people person, an introvert person with very few close friends who was suffering from melancholia or even depression for most of his life.

Well, besides Robert B. we have yet to meet someone who really disliked/hated Rhaegar. Not even Ned can bring himself to hate the man. Most people loved and admired him. This was not the case with Daeron, as we see with Eutace discourse. It is true, however, Daeron was able to build a power base more effectively than Rhaegar.

 

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That could make some sense, although for that we would have to find out where the Arryns, Starks, Tullys, etc. stood in relation to Egg's reforms. The Baratheons and Tullys definitely would have had issues with Aegon V over the marriage scandals, but how they stood in relation the reforms is unclear.

Well, we still need to know what reforms they were to understand why the lords were so pissed.

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And one really wonders who he wanted to have for Edmure. The fact that he is neither betrothed nor married in AGoT indicates Hoster may have aimed at Margaery Tyrell for him, or even Myrcella Baratheon.

Well, we know he tried Arianne.

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Because I really think Rhaegar's coronation of Lyanna is unthinkable from a narrative point of view if we ignore the mystery knight buildup.

Yes, I understood the sentence wrong, quotation issues.

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But it seems Rhaegar pulled the plug on the 'informal Great Council' thing as soon as it became known that Aerys II would attend. While there were many talks and such behind closed doors, it doesn't seem likely the issue of the king's madness were or could be properly dicussed. In that sense, I very much doubt anyone expected a great announcement at the end of the tourney.

In FaB we have Simon Dondarrion crowning Alysanne queen of love and beauty - does this mean Simon and she had affair? Probably not. Prior to that, little Daenerys is also crowned queen of love and beauty - although she is still a young girl. Now, it certainly was odd that Rhaegar did not crown his own wife - and instead chose a girl who was already betrothed - and it caused the assembled people to get confused. But as we see with Robert's public reaction to it it should, at least on the surface, have been no big deal. Only men with as prickly pride and honor as the Starks - who apparently had to read this thing as Rhaegar making improper creep advances to their sister who was not supposed to become the mistress/whore of a prince - seem to have made a big deal about that.

And even that could have been explained away in time. What made that impossible was the subsequent abduction.

Sure, the attendance of Aerys certainly messed up with any possible plan for a declaration, acclamation, whatever. But then even with more urgency, Rhaegar needed to perform in front of all lords that would risk much and more. Even if not immediately. Pulling such a stunt certainly will make them anxious about any adventure.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, besides Robert B. we have yet to meet someone who really disliked/hated Rhaegar. Not even Ned can bring himself to hate the man. Most people loved and admired him. This was not the case with Daeron, as we see with Eutace discourse. It is true, however, Daeron was able to build a power base more effectively than Rhaegar.

But Connington aside, it really seems as if Rhaegar was just idealized and worshiped from afar - for what he represented as the future king, not because he was that charismatic or popular a guy. Robert really knew how to make friends - Rhaegar didn't have many.

Even many of the Kingsguard didn't really truly know the guy. And insofar as politics and intrigue are concerned it is rather telling that we never get Rhaegar's reaction to Tywin's declaration that Rhaegar would make a better king than Aerys II - as is the fact that Rhaegar and Tywin did not, say, agree that Cersei marry Rhaegar while the king was Lord Darklyn's prisoner. Rhaegar was only betrothed to Elia in 279 AC and doesn't give any indication he was making any attempts to find a bride who wasn't the choice of his royal father. If he had had second thoughts about his father as early as 277 AC, it is very odd that he made no attempt to use the time his father was out of the picture to make (marriage) alliances of his own.

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, we still need to know what reforms they were to understand why the lords were so pissed.

Sure, but I think we have a pretty good measure with TSS - Egg clearly would have tried to prevent pissing contests like that for good, meaning that lords and knights no longer would have had the right to press their smallfolk into military service without the king's leave.

And what sketchy picture we have means that the king was issuing decrees which protected the smallfolk from the grasp and the arbitrary rule of the lords, meaning, one assumes, the granting of certain rights to the smallfolk (like, say, the right to petition the Crown whenever a lord delivers a sentence, the right not to be punished severely (say, imprisonment or execution) before being heard by the king, while taking away certain rights from the lords. How far Egg went in the latter department - and how far he wanted to go in the future when he finally had his dragons - is, at this point, completely unclear.

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, we know he tried Arianne.

Yeah, and that's rather telling. Hoster was never about friendship or conspiracy but the blatant advancement of his own house, not matter what. In a strange sense he is very much like Walder Frey - we just don't see that very clearly because we only meet the ailing version of Hoster who starts to have regrets about some of the things he did in the past.

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Sure, the attendance of Aerys certainly messed up with any possible plan for a declaration, acclamation, whatever. But then even with more urgency, Rhaegar needed to perform in front of all lords that would risk much and more. Even if not immediately. Pulling such a stunt certainly will make them anxious about any adventure.

I expect Rhaegar to have changed his priorities and goals during the tourney. I cannot buy the man still thought in the political categories he thought in when he arranged the tourney - he was either lovesick or in a different way so besotten with Lyanna (say, because he was so taken with the chivalric values her intervention as the mystery knight revealed) that he felt showing his respect for her in this matter was all he could think about. He wanted to show her and the entire world what he thought of her in a way that was explicit without giving too much away.

And I think that definitely worked. But he clearly underestimated the effects this would have on both Robert and the Starks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

And I think that definitely worked. But he clearly underestimated the effects this would have on both Robert and the Starks.

Oh yeah he definitely did. I mean he should’ve known that Robert was a true Baratheon and as all Baratheons he wouldn’t take an insult like that.
The Laughing storm is a good example. He declared himself the Storm King in rebellion when prince Duncan refuses to marry his daughter. You can practically say Robert was the laughing storm reborn.

I think Rhaegars judgment was being clouded by his appreciation towards Lyanna. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

Power resides where men believe it resides.

 

On 10/14/2019 at 5:14 PM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I think that's the purpose Aerys's presence at Harrenhal served. Maybe that's what Rhaegar wanted all along, or maybe Varys took it upon himself to make sure Aerys was at Harrenhal so that everyone could get a could look at him.

Every lord knew, by direct experience or by report, that Aerys was totally nuts. The tourney didn't change that.

By coming to Harrenhal, he showed he was still in charge. He took Jaime from Tywin, the most powerful lord of the kingdom... And Tywin did nothing. Had he had stayed in KL, it would have evidenced he had lost the control of the kingdom.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Every lord knew, by direct experience or by report, that Aerys was totally nuts. The tourney didn't change that.

I disagree with this. There's knowing because this person and that person said something or whatever the rumors flying about are. But seeing with your own eyes is a completely different thing. 

The only high lord who we know was present in King's Landing was Tywin Lannister. We don't know if the other ones visited King's Landing. But these people got to verify the information for themselves at Harrenhal. They got to see not just his appearance but also his behavior. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

Oh yeah he definitely did. I mean he should’ve known that Robert was a true Baratheon and as all Baratheons he wouldn’t take an insult like that.
The Laughing storm is a good example. He declared himself the Storm King in rebellion when prince Duncan refuses to marry his daughter. You can practically say Robert was the laughing storm reborn.

I think Rhaegars judgment was being clouded by his appreciation towards Lyanna. 

Sure, but I guess we can take into account that it is not very likely that Rhaegar and Robert - although second cousins - were particularly close. Rhaegar wasn't a people person and wouldn't have spent much time with the kind of person Robert was during his visits at court. Not to mention that Robert spent his formative years as a ward in the Vale and then took over his father's lordship shortly after he had come of age. Little opportunity to establish a meaningful bond of any sort with Rhaegar.

Meaning that Rhaegar had likely no clue what exactly Lyanna meant to Robert - might even be that Robert didn't know what she actually meant to him until he realized that he might lose her/was losing her.

But I agree that especially the abduction/running away/marriage/breaking of contracts thing was folly. Rhaegar must have known what happened with the scandals caused by his grandparents' marriage as well as the marriage of his great-uncle Duncan.

Him not realizing what he might cause there - or worse: him going through with it despite having a pretty good guess how Robert might react - certainly doesn't indicate he was a good politician or a very responsible person in general.

Overall, George did a very nice job in giving the Baratheons very belligerent and troublesome character traits in FaB. They are really a self-destructive lot, very suppressed (especially were improper political ambitions are concerned) and completely incapable of letting something go or admit defeat. It is hilarious how closely Rogar and his brothers resemble Robert and his brothers, and how much Rogar has in common with both Robert and Stannis (and how Rogar's brother Borys channels Stannis and Renly's ambitions). Even the women know how to bear a grudge as both Cassandra and especially Maris Baratheon show.

As it happens, the only reasons the Targaryens survived the Baratheons for as long as they did is that they had dragons the first 150 years. Those put them in line - afterwards it became increasingly difficult to keep them in line. And one imagines that Aegon V and his immediate predecessors tried to keep them close rather that at arm's length until the Jenny affair. Lyonel, Dunk, and Egg sort of become friends in THK and one assumes that this actually established a pretty strong bond for years to come.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But Connington aside, it really seems as if Rhaegar was just idealized and worshiped from afar - for what he represented as the future king, not because he was that charismatic or popular a guy. Robert really knew how to make friends - Rhaegar didn't have many.

"idealized"  is the perfect word to describe people's perception of Rhaegar.  Practically everyone was "in love" with Rhaegar, something that he could have used more effectively when trying to build a power base, something he failed to (besides his few "friends"). He indeed had few friends (maybe Dayne the only true one) but also no enemies (besides his father), but everyone during his time would agree that the guy would make a great king (something we doubt). So, yes, Rhaegar failed here too. It would have been easier for him to build a power base if he had been less detached.

Dareon in contrast was able to build such a power base that made him strong in dire circumstances, despite having many enemies. 

 

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Even many of the Kingsguard didn't really truly know the guy. And insofar as politics and intrigue are concerned it is rather telling that we never get Rhaegar's reaction to Tywin's declaration that Rhaegar would make a better king than Aerys II - as is the fact that Rhaegar and Tywin did not, say, agree that Cersei marry Rhaegar while the king was Lord Darklyn's prisoner. Rhaegar was only betrothed to Elia in 279 AC and doesn't give any indication he was making any attempts to find a bride who wasn't the choice of his royal father. If he had had second thoughts about his father as early as 277 AC, it is very odd that he made no attempt to use the time his father was out of the picture to make (marriage) alliances of his own.

see above. Yes, Rhaegar wasn't very interested in everyday politics, something it was also part of his responsibilities. I've been wondering if the tourney was really his idea or he was pushed into it.

 

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but I think we have a pretty good measure with TSS - Egg clearly would have tried to prevent pissing contests like that for good, meaning that lords and knights no longer would have had the right to press their smallfolk into military service without the king's leave.

And what sketchy picture we have means that the king was issuing decrees which protected the smallfolk from the grasp and the arbitrary rule of the lords, meaning, one assumes, the granting of certain rights to the smallfolk (like, say, the right to petition the Crown whenever a lord delivers a sentence, the right not to be punished severely (say, imprisonment or execution) before being heard by the king, while taking away certain rights from the lords. How far Egg went in the latter department - and how far he wanted to go in the future when he finally had his dragons - is, at this point, completely unclear.

I think these are fine guesses. I tend to think that Egg was quite liked by the people and lords alike. He probably performed pretty well in successive Blackfyre rebellions and other conflicts, and he made friends quite easily. Probably he thought that the lords would resist his reforms but with proper incentives (e.g. marriages) they could be convinced. Few powerful lords at his side, may have been enough to convince others. His children marrying whoever they liked certainly messed up a lot of his plans and he started to look for more radical solutions (aka dragons)

 

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 

I expect Rhaegar to have changed his priorities and goals during the tourney. I cannot buy the man still thought in the political categories he thought in when he arranged the tourney - he was either lovesick or in a different way so besotten with Lyanna (say, because he was so taken with the chivalric values her intervention as the mystery knight revealed) that he felt showing his respect for her in this matter was all he could think about. He wanted to show her and the entire world what he thought of her in a way that was explicit without giving too much away.

And I think that definitely worked. But he clearly underestimated the effects this would have on both Robert and the Starks.

I don't think he ever thought about the consequences of his act, both on the directly affected (Starks and Baratheons) and the view of the other people present.

In one hand, he certainly wanted to recognize Lyanna's valor as a mystery knight and he probably also got lovesick at least for a while. But on the other hand, it is possible he recognized in her something with the prophesies (the whole ice-and-fire thing) and thought it was his responsibility was to fulfill them. Other considerations be dammed.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

idealized"  is the perfect word to describe people's perception of Rhaegar.  Practically everyone was "in love" with Rhaegar, something that he could have used more effectively when trying to build a power base, something he failed to (besides his few "friends"). He indeed had few friends (maybe Dayne the only true one) but also no enemies (besides his father), but everyone during his time would agree that the guy would make a great king (something we doubt). So, yes, Rhaegar failed here too. It would have been easier for him to build a power base if he had been less detached.

Does he?? Rhaegar is only idealized by those he already charmed before, Ned, Jon Arryn, the rebels, even people like Tywin or the Tyrells, not to mention the Martells who were pretty pissed after the Lyanna incident, show no opinion about him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but I guess we can take into account that it is not very likely that Rhaegar and Robert - although second cousins - were particularly close. Rhaegar wasn't a people person and wouldn't have spent much time with the kind of person Robert was during his visits at court. Not to mention that Robert spent his formative years as a ward in the Vale and then took over his father's lordship shortly after he had come of age. Little opportunity to establish a meaningful bond of any sort with Rhaegar.

Meaning that Rhaegar had likely no clue what exactly Lyanna meant to Robert - might even be that Robert didn't know what she actually meant to him until he realized that he might lose her/was losing her.

But I agree that especially the abduction/running away/marriage/breaking of contracts thing was folly. Rhaegar must have known what happened with the scandals caused by his grandparents' marriage as well as the marriage of his great-uncle Duncan.

Him not realizing what he might cause there - or worse: him going through with it despite having a pretty good guess how Robert might react - certainly doesn't indicate he was a good politician or a very responsible person in general.

Overall, George did a very nice job in giving the Baratheons very belligerent and troublesome character traits in FaB. They are really a self-destructive lot, very suppressed (especially were improper political ambitions are concerned) and completely incapable of letting something go or admit defeat. It is hilarious how closely Rogar and his brothers resemble Robert and his brothers, and how much Rogar has in common with both Robert and Stannis (and how Rogar's brother Borys channels Stannis and Renly's ambitions). Even the women know how to bear a grudge as both Cassandra and especially Maris Baratheon show.

As it happens, the only reasons the Targaryens survived the Baratheons for as long as they did is that they had dragons the first 150 years. Those put them in line - afterwards it became increasingly difficult to keep them in line. And one imagines that Aegon V and his immediate predecessors tried to keep them close rather that at arm's length until the Jenny affair. Lyonel, Dunk, and Egg sort of become friends in THK and one assumes that this actually established a pretty strong bond for years to come.

I mean the Baratheons have a history of being quick to anger and taking a minor slight like it’s a declaration of war.

Yeah I have no doubt Robert and Rhaegar barely knew each other. Rhaegar was raised in kings landing Robert in storms end/eyrie. It’s obvious of course that Robert and Rhaegar never spent time together as squires or on any other activities.

But still as a Targaryen who has studied a lot of history, Rhaegar should’ve known what Robert was. Because just by looking at Robert you can pretty well tell he ain’t the regular submissive lord. His frequent bedding of women and his eagerness for martial activities is proof enough of what he is, a true Baratheon.

But I’m quite sure Rhaegar knew what kind of man Robert was, he just ‘kinda forgot’ that little fact when he crowned Lyanna.

One of the reason why Baratheons are one of my favourite houses is due to their traits. I find them interesting and funny, whilst also admiring their martial prowess. 

I do agree that they were a troublesome house for the targaryens. Because a man that acts on his feelings is a dangerous man. Whilst someone with common sense and patients like Tywin and Roose is a bit easier to deal with (on the short term).

I mean imagine if it was the heir of storms end that Aerys took as kingsguard. No Lord of storms end would sit tightly and let the king take your son and heir.
Tywin no doubt hated Aerys after he took Jamie, but he wasn’t stupid enough to rebel. He patiently waited for his time and when he saw it he took it by sacking kings landing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, frenin said:

Does he?? Rhaegar is only idealized by those he already charmed before, Ned, Jon Arryn, the rebels, even people like Tywin or the Tyrells, not to mention the Martells who were pretty pissed after the Lyanna incident, show no opinion about him. 

That others had not (yet) voiced opinions means nothing.  But we know that:

- Ned cannot bring himself to hate the man, despite he was the most affected by the war

- Jorah speaks highly of Rhaegar despite having fought in the opposite side.

- Lord Godric Borrell and Wyman Manderly take as an insult that Rhaegar Frey wears that name, clearly finding him not worthy of.

- Kevan Lannister put all the fault on Aerys, nothing on Rhaegar's  and shows not resentment towards him.

- Cersei still thinks that destiny cheated on her.

Etc.

The Martells were likely pissed for the slight, it doesn't mean that their previous opinions about him were as high.

And in fact, a lot of the plans that Varys has re: Aegon cling on the expectation that people memories about Rhaegar haven't vanished with the time. Regardless what is behind the conspiracy, Varys wants to re-create the story as it should have been.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

That others had not (yet) voiced opinions means nothing.  But we know that:

- Ned cannot bring himself to hate the man, despite he was the most affected by the war

- Jorah speaks highly of Rhaegar despite having fought in the opposite side.

- Lord Godric Borrell and Wyman Manderly take as an insult that Rhaegar Frey wears that name, clearly finding him not worthy of.

- Kevan Lannister put all the fault on Aerys, nothing on Rhaegar's  and shows not resentment towards him.

- Cersei still thinks that destiny cheated on her.

Etc.

The Martells were likely pissed for the slight, it doesn't mean that their previous opinions about him were as high.

And in fact, a lot of the plans that Varys has re: Aegon cling on the expectation that people memories about Rhaegar haven't vanished with the time. Regardless what is behind the conspiracy, Varys wants to re-create the story as it should have been.

 

The others don't seem to care, we see Redwyne and  the likes and  they don't seem to be very charmed with any Targ.

 

- Ned don't hate dead people, there is no single time Ned thinks ill  of Aerys who indeed fucked his family, Ned doesn't hate Aerys, he's not hating Rhaegar either. Ned also didn't know Rhaegar either, so hardly he could be charmed by him.

- This is the most odd take for me, Jorah didn't know the guy and  he was in part hyping the man because he knew Dany loved him, because he was passing as a loyalist.

- They don't take that as insult, they just find them unworthy  of a dragon name.

- Why should Kevan have any resentment towards Rhaegar?? Rhaegar did nothing to the Lannisters.

- Just as JonCon, both loved him.

- I don't doubt that the Martells liked the guy before he fucked everything up but i don't think Robert or Brandon disliked the man before Harrenhall either,  that's the thing, we only have the opinions  of Rhaegar's fans and  oddly enough we generalized, i don't think Rhaegar is disliked, because no Lord seemed to care whether he raped or not Aerys, i think people are rather indiferent.

 

Do you think?? His earlier plan was sending Viserys and  The Dothraki to try and do Aegon's dirty work and  after that use Dany and  her dragons as a source of legitimacy, the one that will have to use Rhaegar's image to help him win the Throne is Aegon himself and  as JonCon correctly says, people hate the Lannisters so much that will jump on the first pretender ship without hesitation.

 

It's rather odd but Rhaegar and  the Targs are not nearly as beloved or idealized, generally speaking, as the Black Dragon or the Blackfyres were.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

"idealized"  is the perfect word to describe people's perception of Rhaegar.  Practically everyone was "in love" with Rhaegar, something that he could have used more effectively when trying to build a power base, something he failed to (besides his few "friends"). He indeed had few friends (maybe Dayne the only true one) but also no enemies (besides his father), but everyone during his time would agree that the guy would make a great king (something we doubt). So, yes, Rhaegar failed here too. It would have been easier for him to build a power base if he had been less detached.

Dareon in contrast was able to build such a power base that made him strong in dire circumstances, despite having many enemies. 

Pretty much that. One imagines like, say, Aegon the Uncrowned he never saw a point to build a power base of his own. Daeron II would have felt a lot of pushback and animosity simply because of his (later) wife from a very early age on. And then eventually the misrule of his father made everything worse, not to mention the treatment of his mother. There seems to have been a Naerys/Aemon party at court even before it became a Daeron party - and while King Baelor was still around that party should have been the king's party. Aegon was sidelined and sent as envoy to Braavos.

Quote

see above. Yes, Rhaegar wasn't very interested in everyday politics, something it was also part of his responsibilities. I've been wondering if the tourney was really his idea or he was pushed into it.

I could see him really starting to get second thoughts about his father after his marriage and the birth of Rhaenys. But overall I've essentially believed since TWoIaF that Rhaegar and Aerys II were actually very close for most of their lives. Aerys II only started to have second thoughts about his son in the wake of Duskendale and Tywin's ambitions to marry Cersei into the royal family.

Rhaegar's entire prophetic beliefs must go back to his own parents - no one but Aerys II and Rhaella could have fed Rhaegar the promised prince idea.

Quote

I think these are fine guesses. I tend to think that Egg was quite liked by the people and lords alike. He probably performed pretty well in successive Blackfyre rebellions and other conflicts, and he made friends quite easily. Probably he thought that the lords would resist his reforms but with proper incentives (e.g. marriages) they could be convinced. Few powerful lords at his side, may have been enough to convince others. His children marrying whoever they liked certainly messed up a lot of his plans and he started to look for more radical solutions (aka dragons)

It might turn out he was well-liked only by the smallfolk and a few key lords. There was a lot of opposition to his rise to the throne in the first place, and that could only have gotten worse once his reform agenda started.

The really interesting part of Egg's story is what lords were his (sworn) enemies. Gerold Lannister was one of his men, it seems, and Lyonel Baratheon, too, until the Jenny affair (and perhaps afterwards again).

It seems to me the dragon solution was a very late idea, possibly coming only up after Daeron's death in the 250s. The marriages fell through in the 230s, indicating Egg had about a decade or more where he tried to use conventional means to enact his reforms ... and basically got nowhere near where he wanted to go.

He may have founded some sort of new order of knights - possibly an order whose purpose it was to ensure his decrees and edicts were upheld. But the sole basis for that is the fact that Aegon V's knights were sent repeatedly into the Westerlands to restore the peace there. But this could be a hint Egg had pretty strong contingent of knights - perhaps some sort of small standing army - to react quickly to uprisings and such. After all, his reign seems to have been pretty troubled.

Quote

I don't think he ever thought about the consequences of his act, both on the directly affected (Starks and Baratheons) and the view of the other people present.

That is pretty likely, although I imagine he also miscalculated the effects - or thought he would be able to smooth things out. I mean, we have yet to find out if there were any talks/interactions between Rhaegar and the Starks/Robert before the coronation. Might be they actually got along pretty well before, supposedly, 'all smiles died'.

Quote

In one hand, he certainly wanted to recognize Lyanna's valor as a mystery knight and he probably also got lovesick at least for a while. But on the other hand, it is possible he recognized in her something with the prophesies (the whole ice-and-fire thing) and thought it was his responsibility was to fulfill them. Other considerations be dammed.

I don't think the latter angle makes much sense at this point. Aegon wasn't yet born, and it seems that him turning out to be male was the deciding factor in the whole prophecy angle there - and Lyanna really only came into play because/after it turned out that Elia could no longer have any children.

This doesn't mean Rhaegar really didn't want/love Lyanna back at Harrenhal - but it seems they got over their affection and decided to end the fling they had there (or not actually start an affair) and stay with their spouse/betrothed.

It might be that Rhaegar talked to the Ghost after Aegon's birth and that conversation led to/influenced his decision to take Lyanna, but that would then have been later. Something happened on that journey Rhaegar made after Aegon's birth before he returned to the Riverlands.

The core of the Rhaegar-Lyanna story seems to be love and romance, with prophecy stuff only being the icing on the cake. And that's actually very GRRM considering he really likes his doomed love stories and triangles. Rhaegar-Lyanna are very reminiscent of things from his earlier work.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/17/2019 at 9:52 PM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I disagree with this. There's knowing because this person and that person said something or whatever the rumors flying about are. But seeing with your own eyes is a completely different thing. 

Those who didn't care for KL. Who would stay as far as possible from the rebellion...
But those contemplating it... must have counselors, people of confidence in KL. To observe. Or else they are fools. It is a question of who holds power, who stick with Aerys. Not if Aerys is sane or not.

What they saw at Harrenhal was Aerys, kicking Tywin's ass. And him, biting the dust. Must have been enlightening for some. Maybe it was intended. Maybe by Varys who is fond of his saying about power.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/14/2019 at 2:40 PM, The Young Maester said:

Yeah I agree with you on the nobles being aware of Aerys’s madness.

I always suspected that Rickard Stark was planning some sort of betrayal alongside his friends Jon Arryn and hoster tully. However what you brought up about Rhaegar crowning Lyanna was quite interesting. Maybe Rhaegar was aware of these southorn ambitions. And crowned Lyanna to send a message tho the message was received differently however.
I really hope the next books will tell us more about these plots that happened during Aerys’s reign.

I don't think we will get those details in Winds, but we will in F&B ll. Sort of in a "this source may or may not be reliable" kind of way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 months later...
On 10/14/2019 at 1:31 PM, SFDanny said:

The problem here is the idea the Great Lords of the realm don't know of Aerys's madness well before Harrenhal. While it is true that this is the first time since Duskendale that Aerys leaves the Red Keep, it is not true he has been hidden so no one can see him since his release from captivity. It is a shock for the common folk who see their king in this state. It is not for the Great Lords of the realm who deal with King's Landing. They already know of the King's mental and physical state - even if they haven't seen it personally. As such, it is not part of Rhaegar's plan to use Aerys's appearance as part of preparations for the tourney. It is Aerys's own move, and quite likely Varys's own move, to prevent a dangerous gathering of nobles turning into what Rhaegar no doubt wanted - a de facto Great Council of the Realm. In that regard it would seem to have worked just as Aerys and Varys intended.

But here one must ask the question "would Rhaegar's plan have worked if Aerys had not come to the tourney?" I think the answer is no. Rhaegar tries to bring the nobility of the realm together so he can plead his case to replace his father, but the politics of Westeros don't just work in a binary fashion. It is not just a choice between father and son. Others have their agendas. Most of the High Lords of the realm - Stark, Baratheon, Arryn, Tully, and Lannister - have already made a choice that doesn't include putting Rhaegar on his father's throne. That is what the marriage pacts, including the one destroyed by Aerys at the start of the tourney between House Lannister and House Tully are all about.

What we see at Harrenhal is not just Aerys's display of power in taking Jaime away as a de facto hostage, but the refusal of House Stark and the others to abandon their "southron ambitions" and support Rhaegar. I think in this the dishonoring of Ashara Dayne by a Stark - most likely Brandon Stark - is a key part to understanding the political currents at play at Harrenhal. So too, is the crowning of Lyanna at the end of the tourney. It is Rhaegar's reply to House Stark and its allies that he stands with his father against their ambitions. That there are multiple layers of motives going on here doesn't change the fact Rhaegar tells Westeros he stands between the marriage of House Stark with House Baratheon. He does so by "honoring" Lyanna, just as Aerys "honors" Jaime, but the message is the same.

I think that Rhagaer plan was two fold..First was to shore up and gauge his strength with the other houses not tied to the Southron Ambitious lot. Like the Reach, Iron Isle(As the crowns master of ships was firmly in Aerys/Viserys regency camp. Notice that Rhegaer made a point of leaving his daughter( an unsuitible heir by Targ standards and his possible replacement Viserys left at the Red Keep)There was also knife throwing an iron born pastime and didn't the then current iron isle Lord win himself a green land bride during the tourney. Meaning he might have been like Asha who.sees what the iron isle are and that they need the friendship and granted lands of the Greenland's to prosper. Just food for thought. Yet, if it comes to civil war between himself/Southron Ambition lot and Pro Aerys/Regency camp he would need his own fleet. The Redwyne fleet at this moment is spoken for being tied to the rebel camp with the marriage between Brynden Tully and his Redwyne potential bride.  This is the reason that Hosteen Tully and his brother broke to begin with his refusal to wed.

To make it easier for me I'll just use sigils. That's the way I've always broken down my pet theory.

So before the Tourney begins the little lion is knighted by Sir Arthur Dayne. This is after the big lion asked the big dragon to squire and eventually knight the little dragon. He is turned down(World Book first edition) Yet I think Rhegear turned this situation to his advantage by having the Sword of the Morning of the kingsguard knight the little lion. How could poppa Lannister be anything but proud and assured his dreams for his dynasty are coming true. He has no reason to.distrust Rhegaer. This is the same man had Barristan not intervened would have burned Duskendale to the ground and crowned Rhagaer amid the ashes.IIRC he waited and even hinted as such after he made his last proclamation to House  Hollard(?) I know that's not right. Which is also why I think Tywin was Rheagar's financial backer for the prizes given at Harrenhal. At this point Tywin is a man alone his hands have been tied by the king his heir and coin into the alliance of marriages have been spent when Jamie joined KG. So he can't join the Rebels and want to bring down. Aerys at least so Rhegaer reaches out to Tywin ask him to finance the tourney...maybe even gives the deals some flavor. Hinting at the old phrase what one king does another can undo. I tend to think this because Tywin went to his death believing that. Jamie not Tyrion was his heir and he could eventually extract Jamie from the KG. I feel like this idea was first planted with Rhegaer. All knew that Whent couldn't afford the cost but none could prove Rhegaer' s compliance in the tourney. Yet the master of coin another enemy of Rhe' s couldn't prove it either. I tend to think that Rheagar was what the actual characters of the book call him a smart man who kept his confidences few. 

 

Rhegaer's fingerprints to break up that alliance is in the joust and the actual crown he placed on Lyanna's lap. Pale rare winter blue roses. Meaning he knew ahead of time even before the whole incident with the knight of the laughing tree and Lyanna sticking up for Howland Reed who he was to crown. Then in one of the Dunk and Eggs series we see how jousts can be rigged. The fact that we know Barristan tried his hardest because of his unrequited love for Ashara to crown her makes the reader think it couldn't have been rigged. The flowers are rare and if I'm right only grow in the glass gardens of Winterfell. Maester Aemon tells jon he wrote letters to Rheagar as well. Lyanna and her activities are documented in the North. Whose to say Rheagar didn't inquire about Lord Starks daughter. Remember as well that the tourney has horse races and according to Lady Dustin Lyanna was half a centur. He very well could have asked about Brandon Stark as well as he knew Brandon was heir and he would be dealing with Brandon once his father was dead. So it's not a strech to say he knew of Brandon's hot headedness. He would have had much word on Ned off in the Vale and as a second son he inherits nothing but could make a useful hostage enter Ashara Dayne. Let's take a look at who miss.Dayne dances with prior to Ned. A red viper(Obyren but a marriage prospect rejected already) A white Knight as Barristan never mentioned dancing with her in Dance I am going to say it was really her brother again the Daynes might have Targ blood but they don't practice incest so again not a marriage prospect. The she danced with a Griffin but as Joncon gay not a likely partner for marriage. Enter the wild and quiet wolf. Brandon is engaged to marry a Tully but Ned and Ashara could wed and a place found at court for a second son/and likely hostage if need be. Remember Elia is either just a few months preggo or hasn't conceived Aegon yet. So Rhaenys being Rhe's heir and a very viable marriage prospect yet I'll get back to that later.

 

This takes me to the opening ceremony of the tourney where you have the king, Queen, Rhegaer,Elia representing the royal family upon the dais. You have the other lords sitting together basically by region. Robert B would be sitting with the Stormlords drinking and laughing away.

Now take what Bloodraven tells us/eggs after the "Second" Blackfyre rebellion. Some men would rather have a weak king in mind but strong in body the " warrior king" 

In the stands you have the Rebels contender for the throne 6 foot plus black haired blue eyed every virgins wet dream fighter extredienare Bobby B.  The man's man warrior with nothing between his ears but hot air and empty promises. Then on the Royal box you have the king looking anything but a warrior but a crazy ass man who hasn't bathed or trimmed his hair in 4 plus year. 

Yet the first card Rhe plays isn't the warrior card or even the intellect card but something no one expects. The very first thing Rhe does at this opening feast he sings. He sings so well in fact he makes Lyanna cry. Yet this makes me wonder how many other high born women married to the very men whom could be used to champion his cause his singing touched? How many went back to their castles and keeps and spoke of Prince Rhegaer in such high words all because of a few songs. How many swords from the small folks did those songs win him?

Then the Jousting begins and Rhe dominates the day and fells all challengers. Then you have the incident with the knight of the laughing tree. Aerys goes even crazier and bids his son to bring him back to the tourney. Robert even speaks up and makes certain promises to king and realm regarding the knight. Yet something else is going on Rheagar's old squire Jon Longmouth the knight of skull and kisses enters into a drinking contest with himself and Robert leaving Robert unable to fore fill his promises of finding said knight. 

I don't care about who the knight is don't care if it's Lyanna or the man on the moon. Don't need to know because my theory isn't revolved around that clue.

So Rhe wins the day and crowns Lyanna. Yet why doesn't she go home after the tourney. She stayed on the Trident. Meaning there was some off the page meetings between the Starks and Rhe. Lyanna wasn't with the Tully's when she was taken so that means she had to have been one of two place Castle Darry or Harrenhal both houses support the Tarts but house Whent was with Lyanna down in Dorne when she died. Suggesting that House Stark at least was about pullout of the marriage alliance and back a different horse i.e Rhaegar. Whatever he said that made them give up their reservation because he was married and had an heir (Aegon) 

Which draws me to Danys prophecy in the house of the undying. Elia asks Rhe if he's to make a song for Aegons birth.He replies no he has a song the song of fire and ice. Yet let think about this for a sec it's stated either by Barristan or World Book that when Rhe goes to compose a song he doesn't even take the KG with him. I think that was a veil question of where are you going without actually asking. If they had been talks about him taking a different wife and I think there is evidence or maybe lack of evidence but common sense/ logic kind fills in the blanks. 

Lyanna is found in the Tower of Joy at the top of the Princes Pass in Fowler and Manwoody land. But close to his allies the Dayne with Starsfell and High Hermitage being a days ride away. Yet this tower is buffered by the Yronwood lands enemies of house Martell because of a certain rumored poision blade of a certain Red Viper of house Martell. Meaning that if house Martell had tried to lay a hand on Lyanna or hold her hostage at Sunspear they would have had to go thru hostile terrian even in their own princedom.  Yet the Martell's had to know she was there right. It's a pretty shit ruler who doesn't know that the Kidnapped Lady Lyanna is in their lands. No I think that when Rhe and Ly went South they spoke with Targ allies. Made a marriage pact for Rhaenys and Aegon' s hand/ possibly even Viserys. Then headed to Dorne to come to terms about his marriage to Elia their children and their future role within the monarchy. Probably promised that Aegon' would be king upon his death as the first born son. That Elia wouldn't be Dishonored and given a place at court and the mother of the future king. Whatever it took to secure the spears of Dorne . Even if Elai herself proved difficult in excepting her replacement her Great Uncle was KG and sworn to Obey. Meaning he could have give Rhe the info needed to make his plans. Not to mention the Red Viper who was at Harrenhal and could have advised the prince on his actions as well and further political moves to get Dorne  or his mother on Rhe' s side He must be a smooth talker. He talks a highborn (ex-dragonlord)Volantis woman to have his bastard but Staffron Baratheon couldn't couldn't convince one to be queen of 7 kingdoms! Something is fishy there as well but anyway. I mean they both would have been in Volantis around the same time if I remember correctly. Yet that's a tangent I will not go down right now.

 

I said all of this to say that I think Aerys being at the Tourney which was never to be a grand council but the precurser to the Grand council.

Think about it the a big reason for the original dance was that the heir of the real hadn't made the same vows and oaths the Rhaenyra as their fathers had. Rhe being a student of history would have remembered that point. Brandon Stark when he makes his adventure to KL goes with heirs from houses in the North, Riverlands and Vale. Aerys calls their fathers to court to answer their treason.

This is there part that's sticky. I think Brandon Stark went to the capital with the intention of being kept there and was waiting for first the arrival of his father but also men from the south to come to the Red Keep for the Grand Council to remove Aerys and make Rhe protector and regent while his father is crazy. All the realm knew that Rhe had made DS his home since he came of age. So to go looking for him in the capital is again misdirection. Brandon wanted to be there and was waiting. This is where I think Varys decided that Rhe's plans had gone too far. He was sewing up the rips his father's craziness has cause the realm. He would have created stabliity. Yet for whatever reason Varys want the realm at war.

 

I think The wanted his father at Harrenhal and everything happened how or why he wanted. He wanted to be the puppet master.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, the conquering bastard 25 said:

This takes me to the opening ceremony of the tourney where you have the king, Queen, Rhegaer,Elia representing the royal family upon the dais. You have the other lords sitting together basically by region. Robert B would be sitting with the Stormlords drinking and laughing away.

I wasn't even aware there was an opening ceremony, let alone that it was described.

57 minutes ago, the conquering bastard 25 said:

Now take what Bloodraven tells us/eggs after the "Second" Blackfyre rebellion. Some men would rather have a weak king in mind but strong in body the " warrior king" 

In the stands you have the Rebels contender for the throne 6 foot plus black haired blue eyed every virgins wet dream fighter extredienare Bobby B.  The man's man warrior with nothing between his ears but hot air and empty promises. Then on the Royal box you have the king looking anything but a warrior but a crazy ass man who hasn't bathed or trimmed his hair in 4 plus year. 

This is cool, except as far as I can tell its made up?

57 minutes ago, the conquering bastard 25 said:

Yet the first card Rhe plays isn't the warrior card or even the intellect card but something no one expects. The very first thing Rhe does at this opening feast he sings. He sings so well in fact he makes Lyanna cry. Yet this makes me wonder how many other high born women married to the very men whom could be used to champion his cause his singing touched? How many went back to their castles and keeps and spoke of Prince Rhegaer in such high words all because of a few songs. How many swords from the small folks did those songs win him?

Nice.

57 minutes ago, the conquering bastard 25 said:

Then the Jousting begins and Rhe dominates the day and fells all challengers.

I don;t think Rhaegar even enters the jousting initially. Its over 5 days, and most top dogs don't enter until near the end, according to what we hear of similar tourneys in one of the D&E books.
Further, Rhaegar rarely entered tourneys. I suspect he wasn't going to enter this one until inspired by the KotLT and a reward for Lyanna's deeds.

57 minutes ago, the conquering bastard 25 said:

Then you have the incident with the knight of the laughing tree.

This is day 2. Rhaegar almost certainly hasn't jousted yet.

57 minutes ago, the conquering bastard 25 said:

Aerys goes even crazier and bids his son to bring him back to the tourney. Robert even speaks up and makes certain promises to king and realm regarding the knight. Yet something else is going on Rheagar's old squire Jon Longmouth the knight of skull and kisses enters into a drinking contest with himself and Robert leaving Robert unable to fore fill his promises of finding said knight. 

The drinking game between Robert and Lonmouth was on the first night, before the KotLT had appeared. While both of these guys swore to unmask the mystery knight there is no evidence they failed because of a second drinking game (not that its unlikely - but given it was happening before the KotLT appeared you can hardly claim its a nefarious plot to prevent Robert finding tKotLT).

57 minutes ago, the conquering bastard 25 said:

So Rhe wins the day and crowns Lyanna. Yet why doesn't she go home after the tourney. She stayed on the Trident. Meaning there was some off the page meetings between the Starks and Rhe.

There is no such meaning. She was likely staying south anyway. She was betrothed to the Lord of the Stormlands and needed to learn how to be a southron lady, not just a motherless northern tomboy.

57 minutes ago, the conquering bastard 25 said:

Lyanna wasn't with the Tully's when she was taken so that means she had to have been one of two place Castle Darry or Harrenhal

No, it means she wasn't with the Tullys. She may still have been staying there, but travelling or on an excursion.
However, I think Harrenhal is quite a likely choice - Lady Whent is Minisa Tully's sister and the Whents have a daughter slightly older than Lyanna who could be a great help.

Quote

Rhegaer's fingerprints to break up that alliance is in the joust and the actual crown he placed on Lyanna's lap. Pale rare winter blue roses. Meaning he knew ahead of time even before the whole incident with the knight of the laughing tree and Lyanna sticking up for Howland Reed who he was to crown. 

That assumes Rhaegar not only set up the whole tournament, but even planned all the little details.

Alternatively Lord Whent arranged the winter roses as the crown precisely because they were rare. 
Heck, this was the year of the false spring. Winter roses might have been practically the only flowers available outside the far south!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...