UK Politics: A Partly Political Broadcast

[Chaircat Meow]

20 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Didn'T I make that point about the Leave side boycotting the Referendum? I am quite sure I said something to that extent. Possibly, we both made that point and overread our respective posts.

Anyway, as for the SNP, they won't betray the remain cause. They've been very consistent and reliably remain with their votes. And I think them sabotaging a referendum in favour of an election might prove to be toxic for them electorally. But then again, I am sorta risk averse, so I wouldn't go for that election with the rather vague outlook of getting IndyRef II this way (which has to be the calculus for the SNP, if they go down that route). So they have to be aware of the risk of getting Brexit and no IndyRefII - which their voters won't appreciate.

The leadership is under great pressure to leverage the Brexit crisis to secure and then win a 2nd Scexit referendum. An election might provide them, they think, a pathway if you can get a majority in the HoC with Labout + SNP votes. The hope is Corbyn would have to agree to 2nd Scexit referendum as the price of confidence and supply. So an election bringing about a Corbyn + SNP majority gives you Remain + 2nd Scexit vote.

However, A 2nd Brexit vote before an election does not do that, as the 2nd referendum is either grudgingly organised by the Tories as the price for Parliament funnelling through the Johnson deal, or comes from a GNU and that includes Liberals and Tory Remain rebels who are unlikely to allow a GNU PM to do anything as controversial as grant a section 30 order. So you can get Remain under this scenario but pass up an obvious route to Scexit.

So that's why the SNP might pull the trigger on an election instead of a referendum. Not saying it will happen, just outlining the 'logic.' 

 

 

 

[Chaircat Meow]

So yea, I can't say I understand what is going on at the moment. The border in the Irish sea was ruled out by Theresa May and the all-UK backstop secured in part to allay fears that the unity of the country (in an economic sense) would be imperilled, which was the big sticking point for the DUP. So if reports of the new Johnson deal are true the DUP will vote against it. It is possible that some of the remaining ERG Spartans will desert them (I think they are desperate now, they surely see the hallowed Brexit prize slipping away) but it would be quite a turn around for all of them to do so.

Even if they did though numbers are tight and the deal Johnson is proposing is considerably harder than the May deal (which was Turkey to Johnson's Canada-minus) so Labour support will be very hard to come by. And I think at least some of the Tory Remainer rebels will think the economic consequences of the Johnson deal are very like no-deal, at least in the medium-long term, and so struggle to back it either. So I give this a low probability of working.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I'll just leave this here. Nothing to add.

[Ser Hedge]

1 hour ago, Chaircat Meow said:

So yea, I can't say I understand what is going on at the moment. The border in the Irish sea was ruled out by Theresa May and the all-UK backstop secured in part to allay fears that the unity of the country (in an economic sense) would be imperilled, which was the big sticking point for the DUP. So if reports of the new Johnson deal are true the DUP will vote against it. It is possible that some of the remaining ERG Spartans will desert them (I think they are desperate now, they surely see the hallowed Brexit prize slipping away) but it would be quite a turn around for all of them to do so.

Even if they did though numbers are tight and the deal Johnson is proposing is considerably harder than the May deal (which was Turkey to Johnson's Canada-minus) so Labour support will be very hard to come by. And I think at least some of the Tory Remainer rebels will think the economic consequences of the Johnson deal are very like no-deal, at least in the medium-long term, and so struggle to back it either. So I give this a low probability of working.

Strictly speaking this is all true, but:

May worked out her deal without consulting the different factions of her party enough, springing the deal on everyone late in the process and both hard remain and hard Brexit camps thought by bouncing her deal back they would get something better.

The MEP elections however sent a message through to Tory Spartans and Labour Leavers they better get Brexit done - or at least not be one of those who can be identified as having opposed it.

The DUP are being offered cash now (according to the FT) to get them to sign on. Likely they have also now discovered exactly how serious the EU are about supporting Ireland about keeping the border open. 

As was mentioned earlier on the thread, all the above parties have also realised this is the last chance salon for Brexit. 
 

As for de-whipped Tory rebels, you can see a few vote against this as it's viewed as a hard Brexit, but some may just device to come back into the tent and look for life beyond the WA coming into effect, a GE and abother stint on the ruling party benches.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

23 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

The DUP are being offered cash now (according to the FT) to get them to sign on. Likely they have also now discovered exactly how serious the EU are about supporting Ireland about keeping the border open.  

I don't think this is gonna work. NI being part of the UK is such an existential questions for them, I don't think there's enough gold in the vaults of the Bank of England to sway them. You might as well try to get Arlene to officiate a gay wedding inside an abortion clinic. Nah, I think, that is actually more likely than the DUP signing off on the Irish sea border. For them UK-NI connection tops Brexit.

 

[redriver]

Why would anyone be worried about what the DUP want in these circumstances?Their leverage has been somewhat diminished.

[Chaircat Meow]

29 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

Strictly speaking this is all true, but:

May worked out her deal without consulting the different factions of her party enough, springing the deal on everyone late in the process and both hard remain and hard Brexit camps thought by bouncing her deal back they would get something better.

The MEP elections however sent a message through to Tory Spartans and Labour Leavers they better get Brexit done - or at least not be one of those who can be identified as having opposed it.

The DUP are being offered cash now (according to the FT) to get them to sign on. Likely they have also now discovered exactly how serious the EU are about supporting Ireland about keeping the border open. 

As was mentioned earlier on the thread, all the above parties have also realised this is the last chance salon for Brexit. 
 

As for de-whipped Tory rebels, you can see a few vote against this as it's viewed as a hard Brexit, but some may just device to come back into the tent and look for life beyond the WA coming into effect, a GE and abother stint on the ruling party benches.

I agree with Horse on this; it is an existential question for them.  I do think you are right that elements of the ERG may now be thinking, this is all we are going to get. So there could be movement there. And lets not forget we haven't seen the new draft yet and when we do it may all fall apart in a few hours; Johnson has no careful, well-thought out plan; this is being done out of fear of the Benn Act. 

[Chaircat Meow]

4 minutes ago, redriver said:

Why would anyone be worried about what the DUP want in these circumstances?Their leverage has been somewhat diminished.

John Rentoul's (chief pol commentator at the Indie) calculation based on MV3

"If there is a deal & DUP support it, it should pass the Commons:

286 MPs voted for May's deal on 29 March:

-1 Brecon (C Davies)

-2 MPs like A Rudd who say Johnson's deal is worse

+20 of 28 Spartans

+15 Lab (S Kinnock & co) incl 1 Lib Dem (N Lamb)

+10 DUP 328 = majority of 17"

If the 10 DUP vote against majority is -3 so the government would lose the vote. And this is not counting the fact that more Spartans would likely vote against if the DUP were against. I think Rentoul might be flowing too many Labour MPs to Johnson too, as this deal is much harder than May's.

[Ser Hedge]

20 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I don't think this is gonna work. NI being part of the UK is such an existential questions for them, I don't think there's enough gold in the vaults of the Bank of England to sway them. You might as well try to get Arlene to officiate a gay wedding inside an abortion clinic. Nah, I think, that is actually more likely than the DUP signing off on the Irish sea border. For them UK-NI connection tops Brexit.

 

I hear you, FWIW they will still be in the UK customs area as well (de jure) and benefit from any free trade agreements the UK strikes, so the fudge is there if the DUP are willing to use that to sell their electorate. There is unquestionably a hard border through the Irish Sea and if the duty on an item is less in the UK than the EU, the higher duty is paid first and upon consumption in NI itself, a rebate is applied for. Sounds like a real hassle.

Another thing in the calculus is if Boris gets this approved by the EU and it nearly passes commons, but is nuked by the DUP, it will be a GE and Boris campaigns on this deal (not no deal) and if the Tories win a simple majority, then the DUP can push their wheelbarrows across the frictionless border all the way to fair Dublin and sell cockles and mussels 'til they die of a fever, 'coz no one in Westminster will have any use for them any more. So, take the cash while it's there.

[Ser Hedge]

One person briefed on the negotiations said the DUP was asking for “billions not millions” for Northern Ireland.

https://www.ft.com/content/033e6e20-ef19-11e9-ad1e-4367d8281195

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Not enough. May's deal would've kept NI more closely alligned to the UK (well actually the UK to NI, but that's semantics) than this proposal.

They rejected it, because they feared a future goverment might cut them loose at some point as a price for a looser UK (minus NI) EU relationship, without upsetting the EU (namely Ireland).

Now the new proposal is effectively taking a short cut, by cutting NI loose. So for them it's getting offered to be sold down the river now, instead of potentially in some point in the future.

Lesson for the DUP, if somebody - likesay the Tories - can buy you, they can also sell you.

[Chaircat Meow]

4 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

One person briefed on the negotiations said the DUP was asking for “billions not millions” for Northern Ireland.

https://www.ft.com/content/033e6e20-ef19-11e9-ad1e-4367d8281195

Well, NI's economy is only 37billion in GDP so that's a big old bribe they want there. 

[williamjm]

33 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

I hear you, FWIW they will still be in the UK customs area as well (de jure) and benefit from any free trade agreements the UK strikes, so the fudge is there if the DUP are willing to use that to sell their electorate. There is unquestionably a hard border through the Irish Sea and if the duty on an item is less in the UK than the EU, the higher duty is paid first and upon consumption in NI itself, a rebate is applied for. Sounds like a real hassle.

Another thing in the calculus is if Boris gets this approved by the EU and it nearly passes commons, but is nuked by the DUP, it will be a GE and Boris campaigns on this deal (not no deal) and if the Tories win a simple majority, then the DUP can push their wheelbarrows across the frictionless border all the way to fair Dublin and sell cockles and mussels 'til they die of a fever, 'coz no one in Westminster will have any use for them any more. So, take the cash while it's there.

On the other hand, the DUP might fear that agreeing to the deal could be doing a lot of harm to their own electoral prospects in the future since it leaves them open to attacks from the other Unionist parties.

It would have made more sense for them to demand more from May to agree to her deal.

[Chaircat Meow]

The Sun is reporting that Owen Patterson has now attacked the plan and IDS is said to be angry. Baker, on the other hand sounds positive. So mixed signals but signs Boris can't win rally his own troops let alone the DUP. 

[redriver]

43 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

John Rentoul's (chief pol commentator at the Indie) calculation based on MV3

"If there is a deal & DUP support it, it should pass the Commons:

286 MPs voted for May's deal on 29 March:

-1 Brecon (C Davies)

-2 MPs like A Rudd who say Johnson's deal is worse

+20 of 28 Spartans

+15 Lab (S Kinnock & co) incl 1 Lib Dem (N Lamb)

+10 DUP 328 = majority of 17"

If the 10 DUP vote against majority is -3 so the government would lose the vote. And this is not counting the fact that more Spartans would likely vote against if the DUP were against. I think Rentoul might be flowing too many Labour MPs to Johnson too, as this deal is much harder than May's.

I suppose Boris spending so much time on them signifies something.They can be bought it would appear.No big surprise there.I hope it's the case.

From a personal point of view Remain is out the window it seems.So a deal with a cash incentive which actually helps business in NI appears th best option for ROI and the whole island.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

9 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Usually I'd say, this is going to be interested now that push comes to shove, but here I am fairly sure it will just mean, the talks will collapse. As in the concession required from Johnson would never be acceptable to the DUP, and the ERG would vote them down equally dutifully. So I'd get my popcorn ready for the fingerpointing and blame game.

Like I said. Popcorn time.

Let the Hunger Games Begin. Let's see how Boris wants to worm himself out of it.

[Chaircat Meow]

I suppose Johnson's plan could be this:

We have all been scratching our heads thinking how does this make sense, he needs the DUP and he can't expect them to fall for this. Well, it could be he knows that full well and 'success' as it is being defined here doesn't require the DUP.

1) Johnson just want to give the ERG cover to abandon the DUP; he can then isolate the DUP and paint them as obstructive because he, Johnson, did cut a deal preserving the integrity of the country, whatever they may say. He then scraps the level playing field provisions and goes for a much harder Brexit deal and future relationship. So the ERG vote for the deal.

2) He thinks nearly all the Tory rebels will vote for the deal, however awful, because they've made opposing no deal their big thing, not opposing a terrible Brexit deal nearly as bad as no deal. So the Tory rebels vote for it. 

3) He thinks there are 15-20 Labour MPs, such as Kinnock, Flint and so on desperate for a deal who will vote for anything other than total chaos in the forlorn hope Brexit will go away once the exit deal is cut. So he hopes to make up for the DUP with Labour MPs. 

So the deal gets through.

However, 3 is likely wrong - Corbyn will threaten to withdraw the whip from his rebels as he won't want Jo Swinson to be able to say he facilitated Brexit. The deal won't pass but it will fail more narrowly than May's did, as gains among the ERG, now separated from the DUP, will not be offset by losses among Tory Remainers who nearly all want a deal. 

Johnson may think a narrow loss for his deal is fine, it at least distracts from him having to ask for an extension and he's retaken the initiative and looks dynamic (cutting a deal so quickly). What's more the deal he cuts, he hopes, won't polarise Leave opinion like May's deal did; the ERG will back him and he'll be able to ask for an election where he gets to put his very hard Brexit to the public with Farage side-lined.

Crucially there are probably not the numbers for a 2nd referendum if Johnson has a deal to offer, as the DUP and enough Labour MPs are opposed to a referendum to make it unfeasible without support from the Gawkeward squad and the Tory rebels will likely only vote for a ref to avert no deal coming about via a Johnson win in an election. So just having a deal may shoot the 2nd ref fox. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

What. The. Hell. Is. Going. On??? 

The last few articles I skimmed had wildly different reporting.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

@Chaircat Meow

Isn't it more likely, that

1.) A number of ERGs will vote against the deal. Because it either does not contain enough unicorns or no-deal is better anyway.

2.)  Will vote against it, because it's so much worse than May's deal (for all its lack of Unicorns).

3.) Unlikely he will get all of them. That dingbat Hoey is almost as horny for no deal as Reese-Smugg. And for the others, it's the same as for the Tory remainers, so much worse than what May brought home.

I can't see how this deal performs significantly better (if any better at all) than what May got.

[Chaircat Meow]

8 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

@Chaircat Meow

Isn't it more likely, that

1.) A number of ERGs will vote against the deal. Because it either does not contain enough unicorns or no-deal is better anyway.

2.)  Will vote against it, because it's so much worse than May's deal (for all its lack of Unicorns).

3.) Unlikely he will get all of them. That dingbat Hoey is almost as horny for no deal as Reese-Smugg. And for the others, it's the same as for the Tory remainers, so much worse than what May brought home.

I can't see how this deal performs significantly better (if any better at all) than what May got.

I'm not sure, I think my scenario is more likely but I hope yours is what happens. I thought of my post more as a sketch of why Johnson's actions make sense, not so much as my prediction for how things will actually fall out. 

One reason for the ERG caving is that the no-dealers must now see the writing on the wall and appreciate there is a significant chance the great Brexit turd will be taken away from them if they don't cut and run with Johnson's deal.