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Now everyone's waiting to see what way the ERG go. The DUP have rejected it outright, but some of the Indy Tories will back and it and apparently up to 30 Labour MPs as well. The ERG could hold the balance of power here.

Boris has apparently asked the EU to confirm they will not agree to an extension from 31 October, so it's this vote or nothing. That wasn't mentioned in the announcement, so I'm assuming that the EU declined to do that.

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Juncker has said he sees no reason to approve a further delay because they have a deal and he has no control over what Parliament does.

Whether that's "take this deal or you leave on October 31st with no deal" is less clear, as that would need to be agreed by the full EU Council. But that seems to be Juncker's view at present.

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Junker closing the extension door not only helps Boris circumvent the Benn act dilemma but might push some Labour MPs to back the deal in fear that the only other option is no deal. It’s not up to Junker though worth mentioning
 

Of course they might not back it due to Corbyn and his magical Brexit idea. We’ll see.

 

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3 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

Keir Starmer posted a Twitter thread which sets out Labour's problems with the deal

 

 

Essentially his problem is that Boris’ deal moves the UK further away from the EU than Mays, her PD being very much Brexit in name only in many ways. 


He also has a problem with the idea that the UK can write its own rules, because of course only the EU can be trusted to that (Thank you EU for your mercy)

Everything he has said there makes me like the deal more.

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38 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

 


He also has a problem with the idea that the UK can write its own rules, because of course only the EU can be trusted to that 

More like he doesn’t trust the Tories to sell out workers rights to American corporations 

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4 hours ago, Werthead said:

Now everyone's waiting to see what way the ERG go. The DUP have rejected it outright, but some of the Indy Tories will back and it and apparently up to 30 Labour MPs as well. The ERG could hold the balance of power here.

Boris has apparently asked the EU to confirm they will not agree to an extension from 31 October, so it's this vote or nothing. That wasn't mentioned in the announcement, so I'm assuming that the EU declined to do that.

Yes, the expelled Tories will likely back it, as most of them just oppose no-deal, but not Brexit as such (with the exception of Grieve maybe). However, I have some problems seeing 30  Labour MPs backing it. As the deal will remove the worker and consumer protection (the result of mvoing the UK further from the EU than May's deal). They have to be aware of that. I think this will be the decissive group. If they get those 30 Labour MPs willing to defy the whip and give the Tories an election boon, then it's game over for remain. But like I said, I don't think there are 30, I give them Hoey, then it's 29 to go.

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14 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Yes, the expelled Tories will likely back it, as most of them just oppose no-deal, but not Brexit as such (with the exception of Grieve maybe). However, I have some problems seeing 30  Labour MPs backing it. As the deal will remove the worker and consumer protection (the result of mvoing the UK further from the EU than May's deal). They have to be aware of that. I think this will be the decissive group. If they get those 30 Labour MPs willing to defy the whip and give the Tories an election boon, then it's game over for remain. But like I said, I don't think there are 30, I give them Hoey, then it's 29 to go.

This thread is the only place I've seen 30 mooted. Everywhere else seems to say 12-20.

 

I see Starter's tweets have been linked, so here's Dunt: https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/10/17/saturday-is-the-most-important-day-in-the-entire-brexit-saga

 

I see HOI is back to his ERG script again

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Of course he is. But please be so civil not to mention it.

Anyway, I can very well see the EU parliament rejecting this deal, or demanding changes to it. Namely the defacto outsourcing of custom checks to the UK. I am presumably not the only one, who considers this problematic.

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14 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

I see HOI is back to his ERG script again

Just happy to see a deal, even if it doesn’t get through, though it might. Not really what was predicted with great certainty by many.

Speaking of that total Dunt, it’s always worth remembering he wasn’t always so positive about the EU

 

 

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Yup, the BBC now saying maybe 15 Labour MPs will support it tops. The removal of the protection for workers' rights appears to be the key to getting more Labour members to support it, but that's too late to change now from the look of it.

Running the current numbers, it looks like Boris is short by around 3-8 votes if the Indy Tories break as expected (apparently most will support the deal but several won't), only a few Labour MPs back it and everyone else, including the DUP, vote against it as a bloc. He could still squeeze it through with a couple of surprise defections though.

Saturday will be all to play for.

Interesting example of how the new system will work. It seems laborious.

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3 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Essentially his problem is that Boris’ deal moves the UK further away from the EU than Mays, her PD being very much Brexit in name only in many ways.

I hope it is repeatedly pointed out to these dumbells bells they could at least have voted for May's WA deal contingent on greater involvement in negotiating the future relationship and we could have had a perfect Brino.

Instead they torpedoed the deal with no intelligible reasons given and have pushed the Tories to the right and have come closer to a harder Brexit.

Dingbats.

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2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Boris is short by around 3-8 votes if the Indy Tories break as expected (apparently most will support the deal but several won't), only a few Labour MPs back it and everyone else, including the DUP, vote against it as a bloc. 

If the DUP abstain it could theoretically scrape through in this scenario. Saw that speculation somewhere, but it's only speculation I think.

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4 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

If the DUP abstain it could theoretically scrape through in this scenario. Saw that speculation somewhere, but it's only speculation I think.

Some speculation that Boris told the DUP it was fine for them to abstain because that would play well for them back home, because Boris is confident he'll get enough rebels and Labour to make up the numbers.

What an achievement, getting a harder Brexit than May's deal and getting enough Labour to vote for it.

Interestingly if this deal axes the EU labour protections and the Tories end up gutting labour laws, in the medium term will that help Labour get back into govt? One of the main appeals to the masses from labour parties is worker protection laws. But if the UK worker has been (probably unknowingly) leaning on EU labour regulations then that weakens one of the Labour electoral platforms. Playing the long game therefore Labour could campaign on better worker protections than the old EU arrangements. Labour should not fear loss of EU worker protections.

A deal probably gives Boris the ability to see out the full term and not have to call a GE, right?

There's still the issue of not being able to properly line up all the ducks to get the deal done by 31 Oct though, isn't there?

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23 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

If the DUP abstain it could theoretically scrape through in this scenario. Saw that speculation somewhere, but it's only speculation I think.

I saw in some of the coverage that the DUP have said they will vote against, not abstain.

If Boris does lose narrowly and is forced into an extension he might feel he is well placed for a general election, since he campaign on delivering a deal as long as he gets a majority. The potential risk for him might be if the deal is unpopular with the leave voters, and they vote for Farage instead.

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58 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Some speculation that Boris told the DUP it was fine for them to abstain because that would play well for them back home, because Boris is confident he'll get enough rebels and Labour to make up the numbers.

What an achievement, getting a harder Brexit than May's deal and getting enough Labour to vote for it.

Interestingly if this deal axes the EU labour protections and the Tories end up gutting labour laws, in the medium term will that help Labour get back into govt? One of the main appeals to the masses from labour parties is worker protection laws. But if the UK worker has been (probably unknowingly) leaning on EU labour regulations then that weakens one of the Labour electoral platforms. Playing the long game therefore Labour could campaign on better worker protections than the old EU arrangements. Labour should not fear loss of EU worker protections.

A deal probably gives Boris the ability to see out the full term and not have to call a GE, right?

There's still the issue of not being able to properly line up all the ducks to get the deal done by 31 Oct though, isn't there?

Unclear. The coalition gutted a lot of worker protections in 2012, but as far as I can tell a lot of people completely failed to notice this, so it depends on how visible the loss will be.

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How serious is the court action re the Irish sea border being illegal (because of a law JRM put in place to prevent it from happening under May's watch)? If it's illegal to vote for a deal containing such a border without amending the relevant bit of legislation then not only is there a chance of a deal not getting enough votes, but it could be there can't even be a vote on the deal before 19 Oct.

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