UK Politics: A Partly Political Broadcast

[mormont]

7 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Scexit (to which I am strongly opposed)

I am also strongly opposed. To the use of this term, which is awful. It unnecessarily attempts to replace a perfectly good term used for decades without any problems, with a coinage that crashes on the ear with a sound like a dropped coffee jar. Dreadful. Grating. Superfluous. In a word, ugh.

ETA  -just so I'm not just complaining, the vote for 12 December election has, as expected, just fallen. 299 in favour, 70 against, ridiculous number of abstentions from MPs whose constituents deserve better.

[Chaircat Meow]

Just now, mormont said:

I am also strongly opposed. To the use of this term, which is awful. It unnecessarily attempts to replace a perfectly good term used for decades without any problems, with a coinage that crashes on the ear with a sound like a dropped coffee jar. Dreadful. Grating. Superfluous. In a word, ugh.

I like it.

I only have doubts on the following score, it sounds a bit like Skeksis, who were the villains from the Dark Crystal (1982 fantasy film with puppets) and they were really cool. I especially liked the chamberlain. I don't want the Skeksis besmirched with any associations with Scexit. 

[Mentat]

16 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

I only have doubts on the following score, it sounds a bit like Skeksis, who were the villains from the Dark Crystal (1982 fantasy film with puppets) and they were really cool. I especially liked the chamberlain. I don't want the Skeksis besmirched with any associations with Scexit.

A reasonable concern, but you needn't fear. The c in Scexit is silent (as in Scion). The correct pronunciation is Sex-it.

Also, watch Dark Crystal: Age of Resistance if you haven't.

[ants]

6 hours ago, mormont said:

.....

ETA  -just so I'm not just complaining, the vote for 12 December election has, as expected, just fallen. 299 in favour, 70 against, ridiculous number of abstentions from MPs whose constituents deserve better.

Just to confirm since I needed to look this up, despite "winning" 299 to 70, this is actually a loss since Boris needed a two-thirds majority.  

 

Also, Boris has accepted the extension to 31 January. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

5 hours ago, ants said:

Just to confirm since I needed to look this up, despite "winning" 299 to 70, this is actually a loss since Boris needed a two-thirds majority.  

 

Also, Boris has accepted the extension to 31 January. 

Has he identified which ditch he has chosen to die in?

[Which Tyler]

14 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Has he identified which ditch he has chosen to die in?

There have been plenty of volunteers

[Derfel Cadarn]

1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

There have been plenty of volunteers

We could have a (legally binding) referendum to decide the means of dispatch, and a lottery to identify who gets to carry out.

[mormont]

So Labour are now in favour of an early general election, agreeing that No Deal is now off the table. Looks like we all get to vote in December.

This Fixed Term Parliament Act has really worked out, hasn't it?

The correct strategy here would be to make Johnson really own this election. It's his vote. He wanted it. Make him own it. Make him take responsibility for the airwaves being full of pitches to voters in the runup to Christmas, for the election leaflets dropping through the door with the cards. Make it a referendum on him as a Prime Minister, his incompetence and inability to get things done. Push for him to debate on TV (he won't do it: his team know it would be a disaster). Keep up the pressure and hope that his voters stay home or defect. 

[Ser Hedge]

12 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

2) The reason they are not trying for a 2nd ref is because they don't think the numbers are there for it and that it is substantially more likely Parliament passes the WAB than supports a 2nd referendum. I think this calculation is probably right. This was not true before Boris got his deal, as the Indie Tories may have eventually gone for a 2nd referendum to stop no deal, as would some Labour rebels. Boris getting the deal changed that. 

That is likely the case, but still pretty defeatist. The WAB passed the second reading vote with a thin majority and some of the MPs voting in favour very likely wanted to amend it significantly, to the extent it was not going to pass with the ERG then backing out. The end of 2020 crash out was never going to fly with the indy Tories and a combination of that and the leaks about dilution of worker rights could have put some Labour rebels back in play. As you pointed out, a couple of Tory MPs could be dropping out as voting MPs as well (for unrelated reasons).

The chances of the WAB passing closer to its current form are actually higher with a GE I think. So its actually a big gamble by the LibDems. Or they figured on balance they can grow the party more this way, consolidating the Remain vote while Corbyn is nominally still at Labour's helm, and have prioritised this over revoke via second ref  in the immediate short-term.

As you correctly point out, re-join is a much bigger undertaking than revoking before an actual exit (yes, I used revoke in the wrong context that time).  So all the more of a gamble/head-scratcher.

In any case, it's not a bad idea to have a GE, though the timing is still going to be less than optimal for many. 

[Which Tyler]

 

Personally, I'm hoping that the things Tree-Frog, CockWomble and Puce Racist have said are true (that Thursday marks the death of the Tory Party)

So it just remains to be seen what ammendments get added - presumably the date change is 50:50 (and feels a little pathetic, even if I do understand the reasoning) - and presumably 2nd ref and lowered voting age won't get close.

 

 

Nothing says "healing the country" like forcing politics discussions into the traditional Christmas Family Feuds.

Joy to the world!

[Gaston de Foix]

This election will be good for everyone, except the country and Labour.  Boris will get a majority, and purge his party of the rebels.  The Lib Dems and Scot Nats will increase their seats in Parliament.  Farage will win some seats under a non-aggression pact.  And Boris' deal will pass easily.  In retrospect, he should just have called a general election in July when he became party leader. 

[mormont]

20 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

Farage will win some seats under a non-aggression pact.

This won't happen. Tice's comments earlier make that clear, if it wasn't already:

'We want a decent, proper Brexit', 'we have serious problems with this deal', etc. He's making it clear that any electoral pact requires a promise of no deal. Since Johnson is calling this election to garner support for his deal, that is effectively saying no to an electoral pact. 

On the Tory side, why on Earth would they ally with a party that's trying to steal their lunch? Enabling the election of Brexit Party MPs is not in any way going to help the Conservative party. It would be an admission that they couldn't get a majority on their own, a legitimisation and recognition of the Brexit Party as being on the same level as themselves, and a way of getting yet another bloc of MPs that wouldn't be under Conservative Party control. Life dependent on the DUP has been bad enough. Life dependent on Farage's band of frothing liabilities would be intolerable. They'd be howling for no-deal, obviously, but also for votes on hanging, restricting abortion, abolishing maternity leave and so on. Some of the ERG idiots would probably be happy enough with enabling that agenda, but the party as a whole would not. 

[Gaston de Foix]

32 minutes ago, mormont said:

This won't happen.

 He's making it clear that any electoral pact requires a promise of no deal. Since Johnson is calling this election to garner support for his deal, that is effectively saying no to an electoral pact. 

On the Tory side, why on Earth would they ally with a party that's trying to steal their lunch? Enabling the election of Brexit Party MPs is not in any way going to help the Conservative party. It would be an admission that they couldn't get a majority on their own, a legitimisation and recognition of the Brexit Party as being on the same level as themselves, and a way of getting yet another bloc of MPs that wouldn't be under Conservative Party control. Life dependent on the DUP has been bad enough. Life dependent on Farage's band of frothing liabilities would be intolerable. They'd be howling for no-deal, obviously, but also for votes on hanging, restricting abortion, abolishing maternity leave and so on. Some of the ERG idiots would probably be happy enough with enabling that agenda, but the party as a whole would not. 

A non-aggression pact is not the same thing as an electoral alliance.  For the reasons you give, I doubt there will be one. 

The Brexit party obviously wants a clear field in a few constituencies so they can have some MPs.  As you say, the Tory reasons are harder.  But it may make sense from a tactical perspective to leave a handful of seats for the Brexit party on the understanding that they will not stand candidates in narrow Brexit-Remain seats.  I wouldn't be surprised if there is an unannounced pact or covert negotiations.  The Tories may not want to admit it publicly.  But Farage very much wants to be an MP. 

[Pebble thats Stubby]

Farage may want to be an MP, but you can't be a MEP and an MP at the same time.

I'm not sure if you have to stand down your MEP status before you run for election as an MP or only after you are elected.

 

[mormont]

19 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

The Brexit party obviously wants a clear field in a few constituencies so they can have some MPs.  As you say, the Tory reasons are harder.  But it may make sense from a tactical perspective to leave a handful of seats for the Brexit party on the understanding that they will not stand candidates in narrow Brexit-Remain seats.

Again, no, it doesn't. 

I'll make few predictions about this coming election, believe me. But one that I will absolutely make is that the Conservative party will stand a candidate in every mainland seat. 

[Heartofice]

There are certainly some labour leave voters who would rather vote for the Brexit party than ever vote for a Tory.

[Maltaran]

2 hours ago, mormont said:

Again, no, it doesn't. 

I'll make few predictions about this coming election, believe me. But one that I will absolutely make is that the Conservative party will stand a candidate in every mainland seat. 

Even the Speaker’s seat? (Assuming they elect Bercow’s replacement before dissolution)

[Jen'ari]

7 hours ago, mormont said:

So Labour are now in favour of an early general election, agreeing that No Deal is now off the table. Looks like we all get to vote in December.

This Fixed Term Parliament Act has really worked out, hasn't it?

The correct strategy here would be to make Johnson really own this election. It's his vote. He wanted it. Make him own it. Make him take responsibility for the airwaves being full of pitches to voters in the runup to Christmas, for the election leaflets dropping through the door with the cards. Make it a referendum on him as a Prime Minister, his incompetence and inability to get things done. Push for him to debate on TV (he won't do it: his team know it would be a disaster). Keep up the pressure and hope that his voters stay home or defect. 

Whilst I don’t like Johnson, the problem with that strategy is Corbyn is even less liked by some, I’d guess we will get another hung parliament bud I’d say a Tory majority would be more likely than a Labour one with Corbyn in charge.

[Ser Hedge]

This  Commons has for the first time in its 2.5 years agreed on something and that is to dissolve itself  They are only nitpicking on the date - just out of habit - at the moment.

Maybe inspite of the shenanigans, game theory poker, Punch & Judy and all round puerile point scoring, in a way miraculously the system still somehow self regulates itself? (if you have a bit of patience for it)

[A Horse Named Stranger]

59 minutes ago, Bittersweet Distractor said:

Whilst I don’t like Johnson, the problem with that strategy is Corbyn is even less liked by some, I’d guess we will get another hung parliament bud I’d say a Tory majority would be more likely than a Labour one with Corbyn in charge. 

What a blasphemous statement.

Too lazy to look for a youtube clip to describe the mementum internet rage.

fill in youtube vid: doctor who parting of the ways: daleks screaming DO NOT BLASPHEME.

the time I spent with that description I might have as well just looked for the clip.