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mormont

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Just now, Which Tyler said:

It's viable in that it would have enough seats.

It's absolutely not viable in that it is simply not possible to put that alliance together, even for confidence and supply. There's a reason why nobody at all has been talking about it as a possibility.

O, do explain.

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OK - at this point, the Lib Dems simply will not prop up a Tory government.

A] Once burned, twice shy.

B] If the Tories offer what they would need to, it would kill the Tory party for good - they would lose more ERG members than they'd gain from Lib Dem Allies.

 

I really didn't think it needed to be said - the most vehemently anti-Brexit party is simply not going to get in bed with the party that caused Brexit, screwed up Brexit, and has a large rump that wants the single most severe, unpalatable, suicidal Brexit. There is no middle ground to be found there that keeps both parties united.

Take no deal off the table? ERG remove their support - Tories lose 70 seats

Offer a 2nd referendum? ERG remove their support - Tories lose 70 seats

Fail to do both of the above, and the Lib Dems walk without even getting to electoral system reform, increasing the franchise, funding public services etc.

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4 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

OK - at this point, the Lib Dems simply will not prop up a Tory government.

Famous last words.

Jo Swinson has explicitly ruled out a coalition with Jeremy Corbyn. She has not ruled out a coalition with Boris Johnson. 

You're not wrong that such a coalition would be very, very difficult to imagine. But it's clear that the Lib Dems find it less unimaginable than a coalition with Labour, so...

 

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I heard there has been a considerable uptick in voter registration, esp among under 25s. One assumes that means an uptick remain leaning voters. Of course if those voters are mostly in Labour/Lib Dem/SNP electorates it would increase those parties' vote share but not win them any more seats. If it is young remainers (mostly) then they are probably in urban electorates, does the left command most of the urban seats and bugger all of the rural / small town seats like most of the rest of the democratic world?

I wonder if this won't be among the most tactical voting of elections with people voting less for the MP representing a party they identify with and more to ensure a certain candidate does not win. Particularly with former Tory pro-remain MPs standing as independants will Labour and Lib Dem voters in those electorates vote for the independant to ensure the Tory (probably more extreme and Brexity) candidate doesn't win? Or do they see the independent and Tory candidates cannibalising each other's votes and thus see a chance for their Labour / Lib-Dem candidate to win through? I get the feeling that neither Lib Dem or Labour will consider giving a nod and a wink to the former Tory independants for their voters to vote that way, so voters will have to decide for themselves which way to jump.

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The Lib Dem’s are already in talks with both the Greens and Plaid about standing down in each other’s seats, and I just saw on Twitter they’re also not running against Grieve.

On the other hand, having one of their ex-Tories move to a seat that Labour won by about 30 votes last time is not ideal (Gyimah’s running in Kensington)

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40 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

The Lib Dem’s are already in talks with both the Greens and Plaid about standing down in each other’s seats, and I just saw on Twitter they’re also not running against Grieve.

On the other hand, having one of their ex-Tories move to a seat that Labour won by about 30 votes last time is not ideal (Gyimah’s running in Kensington)

What about the "news" that Cockwomble is running scared for his seat - so is going to strong-arm someone else from there's?

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3 hours ago, mormont said:

Famous last words.

Jo Swinson has explicitly ruled out a coalition with Jeremy Corbyn. She has not ruled out a coalition with Boris Johnson. 

You're not wrong that such a coalition would be very, very difficult to imagine. But it's clear that the Lib Dems find it less unimaginable than a coalition with Labour, so...

 

I must correct myself - Swinson has, in fact, also ruled out a coalition with Johnson.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/jo-swinson-rejects-tory-coalition-idea-and-rules-out-scots-indyref2-support-1-4969501

Which does leave one wondering what the Lib Dems think they're going to do in the new Parliament? They won't go into coalition with either major party or, as the above makes clear, do any deal with the SNP, since she refuses to contemplate their number one demand. Which i guess leaves them working with, erm, the Green Party? Basically, they seem to be promising not to go into government at all. 

Or maybe the Lib Dems will just decide to go into coalition with one of the two major parties anyway, if the opportunity comes up. I'm guessing that. 

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4 minutes ago, mormont said:

I must correct myself - Swinson has, in fact, also ruled out a coalition with Johnson.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/jo-swinson-rejects-tory-coalition-idea-and-rules-out-scots-indyref2-support-1-4969501

Which does leave one wondering what the Lib Dems think they're going to do in the new Parliament? They won't go into coalition with either major party or, as the above makes clear, do any deal with the SNP, since she refuses to contemplate their number one demand. Which i guess leaves them working with, erm, the Green Party? Basically, they seem to be promising not to go into government at all. 

Or maybe the Lib Dems will just decide to go into coalition with one of the two major parties anyway, if the opportunity comes up. I'm guessing that. 

I think the plan is supply and confidence, not coalition, and not with the Tories.

 

Let's face it though, at this stage, all parties will be ruling out all coalitions. Tory and Labour want to give the impression that they can givern alone. Lib Dem want Tory voters to think they won't cooperate with Corbyn (with whom they've cooperated a lot recently); and they want Labour voters to think they won't cooperate with Cockwomble (with whom they haven't cooperated at all).

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4 hours ago, Spockydog said:

I need to go down the shops, but I'm scared to go outside due to all the rioting because we're not leaving the EU today. :(

That's just the Arsenal TV rally to drive Xhaka out of London. :leaving:

2 hours ago, mormont said:

Which does leave one wondering what the Lib Dems think they're going to do in the new Parliament?

Win an outright majority, obviously. :dunno:

But seriously now, my reading is, they are not opposed to Labour as such. It's just that feckless dear Jeezer they put in charge. I am really not sure what outcome they are hoping for realistically. Labour has to post a result poor enough to effectively force Corbyn out, but at the same time Labour has to be strong enough for a post Corbyn Labour party to form some sort of coalition with (maybe with the SNP in some shape or form (supply)).

No idea, what that result might look like, because Corbyn will claim a mandate to form a goverment, if it's mathematically viable. So best case scenario, he simply loses his pretty safe seat. How likely that is, well, let's just say, I'll leave it to your imagination.

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3 hours ago, mormont said:

Which does leave one wondering what the Lib Dems think they're going to do in the new Parliament?

I thought the idea was to demand Corbyn resign as the price of a Lib-Lab coalition

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I read that the oldest Jewish labour organization is not campaigning for the Labour Party because of the antisemitism problem in the party and the lack of real effort to change anything. Does this actually change anything? Would the Labour Party do better with a different leader? Is there anyone else who's not a Blairite who doesn't have similar problems to Corbyn?

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50 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

I thought the idea was to demand Corbyn resign as the price of a Lib-Lab coalition

Yeah, except that this is not going to happen and the Lib Dems know it. If Corbyn wins, he's not going anywhere.

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1 hour ago, Maltaran said:

I thought the idea was to demand Corbyn resign as the price of a Lib-Lab coalition

 

24 minutes ago, mormont said:

Yeah, except that this is not going to happen and the Lib Dems know it. If Corbyn wins, he's not going anywhere.

If the Tories are the largest party, but well short of a majority, with Labour far enough back that Jezza cannot really claim any kind of victory, then the LibDems with a respectable enough number of seats (say just over 50) could be best placed to ask for a Corbyn-less LibLab coalition. Not sure if this is achievable without SNP confidence and supply.
 

Basically you need Lib-Lab-PC-Brighton Pavilion-DUP-motley independents all together to be just over the line wo Labour dominating.

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On 10/30/2019 at 11:05 AM, Spockydog said:

Not if he loses his seat, he won't.

The way he abandoned his constituents over the third runway at Heathrow is definitely going to cost him votes.

In 2015, he said, “I will lie down with you in front of those bulldozers and stop the building, stop the construction of that third runway.”

Amber Rudd is not standing, having apparently toyed with the idea of standing against Johnson in his home seat, where she would have stood an excellent chance of splitting the Tory vote to allow Labour to win.

Key to that is how many students are left behind in Brunel, who typically vote Labour in large numbers.

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To realistically be able to form a functional minority / coalition government I would think Lab needs to hold its current number of seats or only drop by a small handful, and for the Lib Dems to pick up a bunch of Tory seats to allow for a Lab/LD/SNP govt, at least based on confidence and supply from one or both minor parties. Though I suspect both parties would quite like to get some ministerial portfolios and be in cabinet, which may not be forthcoming with only a confidence and supply arrangement. Ministers outside of cabinet are possible with C&S arrangements, as has been the case here, but people do like sitting at the big table.

A multi-headed hydra with a swath of small parties and independants would probably have a short shelf-life, though I would think adding PC to a coalition / C&S arrangement could be workable. But 4 parties would probably be the max for viability.

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On 10/30/2019 at 5:05 PM, Fez said:

Because FPTP voting can get so wonky when there's more than 2 big parties involved; is there some national vote threshold where the LibDems could just explode in size, to 100+ or 150+ members? Or are they too regionally concentrated for something like that?

I've seen a few polls where they are only a few points behind Labour to be in second place.

It's a bit difficult to say what the threshold might be since it would also depend on what the other parties were doing. They might have to get up towards 30% to really start to have a big contingent of MPs.

23 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Soubry was/is not part of the 10 rebels that got kicked out by Johnson. Totally forgot about the many named group. Those are also seats that will probably fall back into Tory hands. Or at least I think this will be an uphill battle to keep them out of their clutches.

I think other than Soubry the remainder of the Party With Many Names are former Labour MPs. I was curious so I looked up on Wikipedia, two of them aren't standing. Of the others Mike Gapes is standing in a constituency where he got 76% of the vote for Labour and Chris Leslie in one where he got 71%. Since both are Remain-leaning constituencies it would be take some very unlucky vote splitting to let the Tories win. Soubry's seat on the other hand looks like one where she could easily split the vote with Labour and lose out to her former party.

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