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mormont

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On the topic of ex-Tories standing in their original seats:

Sandbach joins the Lib Dems and presumably gets to stand in her old seat.

Wollaston would probably get to do the same.

Grieve gets a hand too with the Lib Dems standing down.

And then we have Soubry running under TIGgers for Change as we said. Not sure if the Lib Dems stand down there.
 

These are the only confirmed ones I think.
 

Gyimah is standing in a different seat as a LibDem, so really irrelevant he's ex-Tory. Allen is standing down. And so are a lot of the ones who lost/resigned the whip.
 

Hammond still considering I think.

 

In any case the Tories have written off strong Remain seats anyway. Will be an interesting contest between Lib and Lab in seats like Putney (Greening's old seat), in fact if you think about it, the Libs will have to go after Lab in more seats than the Tories in the campaign.

 

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10 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

In any case the Tories have written off strong Remain seats anyway. Will be an interesting contest between Lib and Lab in seats like Putney (Greening's old seat), in fact if you think about it, the Libs will have to go after Lab in more seats than the Tories in the campaign.

 

Most of the Lib Dem marginals are against the Tories

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3 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

Has anyone dared to outside yet?
I'm too scared of the rioting to even look...

It was particularly bad last night when even the dead appeared to have been so incensed about Brexit being delayed that they rose from the grave and wandered the streets demanding chocolates.

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On 10/31/2019 at 11:01 AM, Which Tyler said:

OK - at this point, the Lib Dems simply will not prop up a Tory government.

A] Once burned, twice shy.

B] If the Tories offer what they would need to, it would kill the Tory party for good - they would lose more ERG members than they'd gain from Lib Dem Allies.

 

I really didn't think it needed to be said - the most vehemently anti-Brexit party is simply not going to get in bed with the party that caused Brexit, screwed up Brexit, and has a large rump that wants the single most severe, unpalatable, suicidal Brexit. There is no middle ground to be found there that keeps both parties united.

Take no deal off the table? ERG remove their support - Tories lose 70 seats

Offer a 2nd referendum? ERG remove their support - Tories lose 70 seats

Fail to do both of the above, and the Lib Dems walk without even getting to electoral system reform, increasing the franchise, funding public services etc.

The deal I have in mind is the following: the Liberals provide confidence and supply in exchange for Brexit being dumped via revoke (no 3rd ref). In return, the Tories get to stay in government and to keep Corbyn out of No. 10. 

Lets deal with your objections.

A] You could draw the lesson from the last Tory-Liberal effort that the Liberals should never form an alliance with the Tories again. However, that leaves them compelled to support Labour if they ever become kingmakers, which is a bit restrictive. They might also consider that in the 2010 case they failed to achieve signature policies, such as scrapping tuition fees and voting reform via a formal coalition. But in this scenario they would achieve their primary aim (Remain), and scrap *the* major Tory policy (Brexit) with no formal coalition. So I think they would look on such a deal differently. 

B] In this scenario the ERG could not hope to stop a 3rd referendum or to bring about no deal because the Tories would only have 290-300 MPs and the other parties would legislate for a 3rd referendum under PM Corbyn if they had to.* So the Tories would have to decide between:

1) Carrying on advocating Brexit but from the opposition benches, while Corbyn tries to rule the nation

2) Staying the ruling party but dropping Brexit

I agree it is not 100% obvious what they would choose but I think the money would be on 2. The ERG are also unlikely to rebel over this as keeping Corbyn out of power is just about the only thing Tory members and voters prize more than Brexit.

*Although I think it is possible the 3rd referendum will come to be seen as unworkable and will be dropped. 

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23 hours ago, Maltaran said:

Most of the Lib Dem marginals are against the Tories

Traditionally, yes. But leave seats such as in the West Country are now going to be less of a focus, and in the new targets of Remain seats that the Tories have now abandoned, they still need to justify why them and why not Labour who are offering a final say referendum. The argument against the Tories is basically just Leave vs Remain on which topic there are really no swing voters who are going to be persuaded to Remain by anything new the LibDems have to say.

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8 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

The deal I have in mind is the following: the Liberals provide confidence and supply in exchange for Brexit being dumped via revoke (no 3rd ref). In return, the Tories get to stay in government and to keep Corbyn out of No. 10. 

Congratulations. You've destroyed not one but two parties. 

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On 31 October 2019 at 10:52 PM, Ser Hedge said:

On the topic of ex-Tories standing in their original seats:

Sandbach joins the Lib Dems and presumably gets to stand in her old seat.

Wollaston would probably get to do the same.

Grieve gets a hand too with the Lib Dems standing down.

And then we have Soubry running under TIGgers for Change as we said. Not sure if the Lib Dems stand down there.
 

These are the only confirmed ones I think.
 

Gyimah is standing in a different seat as a LibDem, so really irrelevant he's ex-Tory. Allen is standing down. And so are a lot of the ones who lost/resigned the whip.
 

Hammond still considering I think.

 

In any case the Tories have written off strong Remain seats anyway. Will be an interesting contest between Lib and Lab in seats like Putney (Greening's old seat), in fact if you think about it, the Libs will have to go after Lab in more seats than the Tories in the campaign.

 

Putney is probably a three-way marginal seat, now.

The Lib Dems should do very well in university seats, wealthy Remain seats in London, and down the M3 and M4 corridors - but the danger is they end up with lots of strong second places.  They won't recover much in the rural South West, where many former supporters are anti-EU.

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4 hours ago, SeanF said:

The Euro elections show what *could* happen to the Tories.

The Euro elections are one of the worst barometers of public opinion. For the last four or five Euro elections at least, they've produced distorted results caused by the fact that Eurosceptics are much more likely to vote in them than other voters are.

Besides, while it's true that the Tories *could* suffer in these elections - they aren't going anywhere and the Brexit Party is a joke, once you get beyond the protest vote. It has no serious policies, no competent politicians, and no purpose for existing other than to campaign for ever more extreme forms of anti-European prejudice.

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3 hours ago, mormont said:

The Euro elections are one of the worst barometers of public opinion. For the last four or five Euro elections at least, they've produced distorted results caused by the fact that Eurosceptics are much more likely to vote in them than other voters are.

Besides, while it's true that the Tories *could* suffer in these elections - they aren't going anywhere and the Brexit Party is a joke, once you get beyond the protest vote. It has no serious policies, no competent politicians, and no purpose for existing other than to campaign for ever more extreme forms of anti-European prejudice.

I agree with this analysis but I wouldn't underestimate the power of Farage's popularity and campaigning skills.  Modern media is a crucial battleground and he is very good on telly.  Obviously the FPTP system and the close connection most MPs have with their constituencies will counter-balance this but I would expect the Brexit party to pick up a few seats at least.  

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5 hours ago, mormont said:

The Euro elections are one of the worst barometers of public opinion. For the last four or five Euro elections at least, they've produced distorted results caused by the fact that Eurosceptics are much more likely to vote in them than other voters are.

Agreed, most of the people who vote BXP or UKIP in the Euro elections will go right back to the Tories in what they perceive as a “proper” election.

A prediction I saw on Twitter is that BXP will elect one MP who within a year will have an argument with Farage and defect to either sit as an independent or join the Tories.

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10 hours ago, SeanF said:

Putney is probably a three-way marginal seat, now.

The Lib Dems should do very well in university seats, wealthy Remain seats in London, and down the M3 and M4 corridors - but the danger is they end up with lots of strong second places.  They won't recover much in the rural South West, where many former supporters are anti-EU.

You are right, I might be underestimating the Tories in  their old Remain seats in general. Many of their voters might have come around to be ok with the WAB and if Boris and Sajja throw in a tax cut, then they are probably going "hey why not?"

An ex-Tory standing in their own old seat as an independent, TIG or better as a LibDem is what could really improve the chances of the Remain/Referendum parties, but then aren't too many of those. We don't even know yet if the LibDems will agree not to contest the tiny handful of TIG seats.

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I’ve been told by my Lib Dem colleague that they’re optimistic about Umunna and Berger in their new seats and ambivalent about Philip Lee - on the one hand, my colleague thinks that he shouldn’t have been allowed into the party, but on the other he’s moved to run against John Redwood the arch-Brexiteer in a Remain-voting seat. 
For the switchers who are staying in their existing seats, he thinks Wollaston is the only one with a chance of winning.

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50 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

I’ve been told by my Lib Dem colleague that they’re optimistic about Umunna and Berger in their new seats and ambivalent about Philip Lee - on the one hand, my colleague thinks that he shouldn’t have been allowed into the party, but on the other he’s moved to run against John Redwood the arch-Brexiteer in a Remain-voting seat. 
For the switchers who are staying in their existing seats, he thinks Wollaston is the only one with a chance of winning.

Totnes will be a great contest.  Totnes town and the Dart Valley are basically Narnia, and Wollaston will sweep the board there.  The Tories will fight back in the coastal resorts.

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Poll watchers seem to be concerned we're heading for a repeat of 2017: the Tory lead seems to have narrowed the second the election was called (down from a 20+ lead to maybe 10-15) and, after an initial slow start, the NHS effect has suddenly exploded, with the US trade deal that puts the NHS deal on the table being widely reported and new reports that Number 1-0 is organising an "NHS war council" to get the health service through the winter. Johnson seems to have suddenly realised that stories about the NHS going into meltdown this winter might adversely affect his election chances, which wouldn't be the case in a more traditional May-June election when it's retreated from memory.

Tory plans to raise the retirement age have not been reversed either, and don't look like they're going to be, which could impact on Johnson's election campaign in the same way that the dementia tax did in 2017 given the importance of the older vote.

The Brexit Party fielding a candidate in every constituency, apparently foregoing Tory pacts, also looks like it will damage the Tories much more than it will Labour. Farage is also refusing to stand in a seat, which is a good sign they don't expect to win any, or if they do it will only be a couple with no guarantee that one of them will be Farage's. Given the problems Farage had as the effective leader of UKIP but losing profile to the UKIP MPs (particularly Carswell), he doesn't want to do that again. In fact, it's arguable Farage would not weep too much if Brexit was defeated: he gets to go on the telly repeatedly probably for the rest of his life, which is his key, overriding and primary motivation.

Because Labour are starting from a higher base, it also doesn't need as heavy a swing to get into power (5% or about half of the swing they already achieved in 2017), whilst in 2017 they would have needed the biggest electoral miracle since WWII to do so (which was effectively impossible), which is something that doesn't seem to have been entirely appreciated up to this point. Labour are now chasing an eminently achievable goal rather than a fantastically implausible one, as in 2017.

On the flipside, though, there are 50 Labour seats within a 5-point swing to the Conservatives (but at least another 50 marginals between other parties), and the Tories are pursuing a highly populist, amusingly blatant vote-winning programme which may win over the terminally short-sighted. Johnson's PR and online campaign will also be stronger than May's. The head-to-head debates may also be crucial: Johnson's nonsensical, warbling rambles seem to be popular in some quarters, and Corbyn's debating performance can be variable. Johnson is being sensible in avoiding a head-to-head with Swinson, who is far better at marshalling facts and arguments than he is and has the winds of confidence at her back; Johnson also lacks the key weapon that the other parties can marshal against Swinson, her dubious voting record in coalition with the Tories.

This is looking much more like a gamble than I think Boris thought it would a few weeks ago. On the balance of things, a Tory majority (possibly even a 40-70 seat lead) or a coalition with the DUP and maybe a Brexit party with a couple of MPs may be more likely, but a Labour-led coalition is not far behind it in probability and an outright Labour victory is not as impossible as it looked a few months ago, although still arguably the least likely outcome.

Quote

A] You could draw the lesson from the last Tory-Liberal effort that the Liberals should never form an alliance with the Tories again. However, that leaves them compelled to support Labour if they ever become kingmakers, which is a bit restrictive. They might also consider that in the 2010 case they failed to achieve signature policies, such as scrapping tuition fees and voting reform via a formal coalition. But in this scenario they would achieve their primary aim (Remain), and scrap *the* major Tory policy (Brexit) with no formal coalition. So I think they would look on such a deal differently. 

I think there is a strong Brexiter philosophy that if they are in danger of losing the battle, better to retreat into opposition for 5 years (maybe less, if they calculate problems with Corbyn as PM) and try again.

The Conservative Party will not revoke Article 50 under any circumstances, and will rather go into opposition. I don't see Labour doing it either. My guess is that if the LibDems enter confidence & supply with either party, it will be on the basis of a third referendum, Revoke being unachievable.

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6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Because Labour are starting from a higher base, it also doesn't need as heavy a swing to get into power (5% or about half of the swing they already achieved in 2017), whilst in 2017 they would have needed the biggest electoral miracle since WWII to do so (which was effectively impossible), which is something that doesn't seem to have been entirely appreciated up to this point. Labour are now chasing an eminently achievable goal rather than a fantastically implausible one, as in 2017.

This is an unduly rosy picture. That 2017 swing was larger in scale, true, but the thing about swings is that continuing them is harder than beginning them. First those swing voters have to stay with Labour, then Labour has to somehow persuade even more voters to come to them. This will not be easy: Labour's poll ratings before the election was called were even lower than they were in 2017, as were Corbyn's personal approval ratings. Even that Telegraph poll you cite above puts Labour on 28%. A similar Telegraph poll after the 2017 election was announced put them at 29%. The difference is that the Tories were on 44% in that 2017 poll, largely due to poorer showings from the Lib Dems and UKIP. But the point for Labour is that they need to be polling way into the high thirties to stand a chance of winning, and they have to get there fast: the campaign is much shorter.

6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The head-to-head debates may also be crucial: Johnson's nonsensical, warbling rambles seem to be popular in some quarters, and Corbyn's debating performance can be variable.

Johnson is actually a terrible debater. He's too intellectually lazy to prepare properly: and he seems wooden when trying to recall details, because he doesn't care about them and is visibly having to concentrate to do it. All he can do is windy overconfidence and bluster, reciting catchphrases, which works OK on the news but gets exposed in a debate.

OTOH it likely doesn't matter. I'm not convinced the debates do matter, and certainly the reporting of the debates in the press will be slanted to favour Johnson anyway.

6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

This is looking much more like a gamble than I think Boris thought it would a few weeks ago.

I think he always knew it was a gamble, but he likes gambles. It fits his self-image of the instinctive swashbuckling leader.

 

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2 hours ago, mormont said:

Even that Telegraph poll you cite above puts Labour on 28%. A similar Telegraph poll after the 2017 election was announced put them at 29%. The difference is that the Tories were on 44% in that 2017 poll, largely due to poorer showings from the Lib Dems and UKIP. But the point for Labour is that they need to be polling way into the high thirties to stand a chance of winning, and they have to get there fast: the campaign is much shorter.

That's the key point of the campaign: the LibDems are doing much better, as are the SNP, and it looks like both will drain votes away from the Conservatives more than Labour (those crucial Tory seats in Scotland from the last election seem likely to go, maybe all of them). The Brexit Party's main achievement in this election would also seem to be to take votes away from the Conservatives and only a few Labour seats. The Conservatives are outflanked on several fronts here. They still have a clearer path to an outright majority victory than Labour, but an anti-Tory, anti-austerity, anti-Brexit alliance arguably seems to have a clearer path to a coalition government (unless the LibDems decide to prop up the Tories instead, which is not impossible).

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