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3 hours ago, Werthead said:

That's quite something, if Labour can repeat even half the momentum they had last time, they could achieve a spectacular result. 

Hum?

Didn't Labour benefit from the polarized electorate, which is now working against them?

Last time out a lot of remain voters united behind Labour to do something about, or rather against Brexit. Yes, Corbyn didn't make any such promise, and he was true to his word. Now we have the polarized electorate and a lot of angry/disappointed remain voters. So I have a hard time seeing Labour getting the same momentum behind their votes, outside tactical voting, but for that you'd need some credibility. And I have a hard time seeing, how Labour under the current leadership has any. Ironically, I think the Labour leave MPs like Nandy will pay the price for it, with remainers abandoning them, and them losing their seats. Afterall the backbone of the leave vote are not Labour voters.

Yes, the Tories have similar issues on the other end of the political spectrum. With their deranged voting base, that have a such a raising election about no deal, that they might end up voting Frogface and his charming gang of racists. But, I'll only believe it when I see it. And if the remain  conservatives have not jumped ship at this point, they never will.

If it were to come down to whose tribal identiy is stronger, Labour voters or Tory voters, I wouldn't bet a single quid on Labour. And that's not talking about the swing voters Labour collected last time out.

FWIW, I think the SNP will sweep Scotland, but that won't be enough. As I see Labour imploding.

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5 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Hum?

Didn't Labour benefit from the polarized electorate, which is now working against them?

What Labour benefited from last time, and which is in play again now, is the approximate third + of the voting base who really don't give a shit about Brexit and want to focus on other issues. Labour's success in 2017 came because they went up against Conservatives who were only prepared to really talk about Brexit and were able to outflank them by talking about the NHS, policing, defence, schools etc and wiping the floor with them.

In 2019 Brexit is a much more imminent issue than in 2017, so that won't necessarily happen again to the same scale (especially as Johnson is now talking about some of these other elements), but there are a lot of people who are interested in things beyond Brexit. The polarised electorate may or may not swing the vote for either party, but the potential benefit of Labour's position - trying to appeal to both Remainers and Brexiters - is clear, as is the danger (people not really understanding what they stand for, although that appears to be more an issue of the media than in reality).

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As these things stand, the Lib Dems and SNP have pulled many more votes from Labour than the Conservatives.  Labour may squeeze their support, but not to the extent of 2017.

45-49% combined is probably baked in for the Conservatives and TBP.  It all hinges on how that percentage splits between the two.

I'd expect the Lib Dems to poll far more than the 8% they won in 2017, because they appeal to the section of the electorate to whom stopping Brexit matters hugely.  14% is probably their floor this time around.

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6 minutes ago, SeanF said:

As these things stand, the Lib Dems and SNP have pulled many more votes from Labour than the Conservatives.  Labour may squeeze their support, but not to the extent of 2017.

45-49% combined is probably baked in for the Conservatives and TBP.  It all hinges on how that percentage splits between the two.

 

With this backdrop, the Tories would need to keep the message tight (as in 2015), avoid the mistakes of May's amateur advisors, announce a few more populist gimmicks in the manifesto, get the media to highlight how crazy some of the BxP candidates are once they are announced and just generally pretend they are all-business-like again, hoping the no deal brinksmanship and parliamentary shenanigans of the recent past are forgotten.
 

And pray the NHS doesn't fall over in the next 6 weeks.

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1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

With this backdrop, the Tories would need to keep the message tight (as in 2015), avoid the mistakes of May's amateur advisors, announce a few more populist gimmicks in the manifesto, get the media to highlight how crazy some of the BxP candidates are once they are announced and just generally pretend they are all-business-like again, hoping the no deal brinksmanship and parliamentary shenanigans of the recent past are forgotten.
 

And pray the NHS doesn't fall over in the next 6 weeks.

I expect that's the strategy.  They won't be putting unpopular things in the manifesto in the belief that a huge majority is nailed on.

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5 hours ago, Werthead said:

1. I think there is a strong Brexiter philosophy that if they are in danger of losing the battle, better to retreat into opposition for 5 years (maybe less, if they calculate problems with Corbyn as PM) and try again.

2. The Conservative Party will not revoke Article 50 under any circumstances, and will rather go into opposition. I don't see Labour doing it either. My guess is that if the LibDems enter confidence & supply with either party, it will be on the basis of a third referendum, Revoke being unachievable.

1. If that's so I think most the cabinet won't have that 'Brexiter philosophy' though - they'd prize power more. Leading Tories are not all in favour of Brexit the way the SNP are in favour of Scexit, they just use Europhobia as a route to power with the members and (lately) the electorate. 

2. Again, you may be right but you could also be underestimating the visceral loathing and fear they, and their voters and members feel for Corbyn. They don't think of Labour in the way they thought of Labour under Blair, Brown, Miliband, or Kinnock. Opposition may not feel like much of an option. 

Your comment on the Tories perceiving they would have to wait less than five years to get a second shot at Corbyn is right though I think. A minority Labour government propped up by two minor parties, one of which wants to break up the country, is not a recipe for a stable or popular government. This is one reason why I think it would be ideally better to secure Remain by co-opting the Tories through fear of Corbyn rather than trusting Corbyn himself. We don't want a pro-Brexit, increasingly angry and nationalistic Tory party suppurating on the opposition benches while Corbyn flails around and needs to the go to the country again in 2 years or so. It could end horribly. 

I'm probably wrong I'm sure. 

 

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2 hours ago, Werthead said:

What Labour benefited from last time, and which is in play again now, is the approximate third + of the voting base who really don't give a shit about Brexit and want to focus on other issues.

Not so sure about that. There were a lot of reluctant leavers. Remainers who were happy enough to honour the first ref result (or considering a fait acompli, &/ believed that no competent government would particularly scrww it up), and were voting on things other than Brexit, despite giving a damn about it.

 

I fully own up to being one of them.

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Only tinkering at the margins so far in terms of uniting the Remain vote:

Speculation Lib Dems stand down in Soubry's seat.

I think it's confirmed they don't stand in Brighton Pavilion (which is Green already) and Isle of Wight (where they had less than 5% in 2017).

In Wales, the Brecon agreement gets repeated and I think Anglesey and Powys where one of Lib Dems and PC had a tiny share anyway.

Hopefully, the other 55+ seats TBA will be more meaningful. Would be good if LibDems stood down against other TIGs as well, but there is really mention of TIG taking part in the talks really.

In NI, UUP want to split the unionist vote between Remain and Leave lines, but had to stand down their North Belfast candidate after robust criticism (to put it mildly) that they were letting SF through. SDLP and SF have stood down in three seats each in each other's favour.

Would be fascinating if the wider state of things wasn't so depressing.

If it weren't for Corbyn, we would have had a Lib-Lab-PC-Green alliance that might even have been competitive in gaining unionist remain votes in Scotland.

Instead we have this ... :bang:

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O hello, Labour pushing above 30 in this poll, Tory lead not as impressive as it appears elsewhere. I always thought Corbyn would rally the troops a bit, but nowhere near the extent he did in 2017. If the Tory lead narrows a bit further and you throw in some good tactical voting by Lab-Lib voters we may get that hung Parliament. 

Conservative 38%

Labour 31%

Lib Dem 15%

Brexit Party 9%

Green 3%

SNP 3%

ICM/Reuters 1-4 Nov

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1 hour ago, Chaircat Meow said:

O hello, Labour pushing above 30 in this poll, Tory lead not as impressive as it appears elsewhere. I always thought Corbyn would rally the troops a bit, but nowhere near the extent he did in 2017. If the Tory lead narrows a bit further and you throw in some good tactical voting by Lab-Lib voters we may get that hung Parliament. 

Conservative 38%

Labour 31%

Lib Dem 15%

Brexit Party 9%

Green 3%

SNP 3%

ICM/Reuters 1-4 Nov

Just curious if any of these polls have been (or plan to be) run specifically in likely marginals including the Midlands-Northern Labour-Tory battleground and in former Tory remain seats in the South East/M3/M4 corridors (as Werthead I think it was who described these new marginals very well)

There is really no point polling Tory shires, Scotland (sadly - from a unionist point of view) and inner London Labour shoe-in seats.

 

 

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The Times held a poll on a new referendum for their readers - who tend to be right-wing-leaning and largely Conservative - behind their paywall and seem to have been floored by the result coming back 70-30 in favour of a new referendum, to the point that they buried the result inside the paper today. That's not in favour of Remain, mind, but it may be a sign that even many Leave supporters are starting to see the benefits of another referendum if the deadlock in the Commons remains.

That's an interesting point actually: if we get another hung Parliament, a third referendum might become much more attractive as a way of breaking the deadlock (and pinning the blame on the electorate).

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9 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

O hello, Labour pushing above 30 in this poll, Tory lead not as impressive as it appears elsewhere. I always thought Corbyn would rally the troops a bit, but nowhere near the extent he did in 2017. If the Tory lead narrows a bit further and you throw in some good tactical voting by Lab-Lib voters we may get that hung Parliament. 

Conservative 38%

Labour 31%

Lib Dem 15%

Brexit Party 9%

Green 3%

SNP 3%

ICM/Reuters 1-4 Nov

On those numbers alone, it's entirely possible that the result is a hung Parliament (and not just due to tactical voting. Wasted votes in Scotland, and all that).

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6 hours ago, Werthead said:

The Times held a poll on a new referendum for their readers - who tend to be right-wing-leaning and largely Conservative - behind their paywall and seem to have been floored by the result coming back 70-30 in favour of a new referendum, to the point that they buried the result inside the paper today. That's not in favour of Remain, mind, but it may be a sign that even many Leave supporters are starting to see the benefits of another referendum if the deadlock in the Commons remains.

That's an interesting point actually: if we get another hung Parliament, a third referendum might become much more attractive as a way of breaking the deadlock (and pinning the blame on the electorate).

Obvious explanation: Times readers are Tory Remainers.

(I'd be much more surprised if the Telegraph or the Mail came back with that result).

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5 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

On those numbers alone, it's entirely possible that the result is a hung Parliament (and not just due to tactical voting. Wasted votes in Scotland, and all that).

38/31 would likely give a Conservative majority of 20 - 30.  It's actually up 1 on the previous ICM poll.

A result along those lines would likely see the Lib Dems take more seats off Labour than the Conservatives.  

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5 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

Obvious explanation: Times readers are Tory Remainers.

(I'd be much more surprised if the Telegraph or the Mail came back with that result).

Readers surveys mean little, in overall terms.  At the moment, polls show fairly small leads against a second referendum.

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So Johnson is sitting on the report into Russian interference in UK elections, until after the election. Weird coincidence, huh?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/04/no-10-blocks-russia-eu-referendum-report-until-after-election

Quote

 

Downing Street indicated on Monday that it would not allow a 50-page dossier from the intelligence and security committee to be published before the election, prompting a string of complaints over its suppression.

The committee’s chairman, Dominic Grieve, called the decision “jaw dropping”, saying no reason for the refusal had been given, while Labour and Scottish National party politicians accused No 10 of refusing to recognise the scale of Russian meddling.

 

 

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16 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

Obvious explanation: Times readers are Tory Remainers.

(I'd be much more surprised if the Telegraph or the Mail came back with that result).

Times readers tend towards more centre-right, business-oriented people, so possibly.

Sunday Times readers (who could also vote) tend towards more Daily Mail levels of frothing anti-EU Brexiters, though, which would more than balance out the more sensible crowd.

Quote

 

Readers surveys mean little, in overall terms

 

13,000 is a considerably larger sample size than many "proper" polls, especially given the captive audience makes rigging the vote from other sources unlikely.

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