UK Politics: A Partly Political Broadcast

[Paxter]

I actually have no idea at this point what Labour will be campaigning for at this election. A second referendum? A different (and softer) negotiated exit? Putting the polls aside, I feel as if BoJo has a significant advantage just by virtue of having a clear position. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

19 minutes ago, Paxter said:

I actually have no idea at this point what Labour will be campaigning for at this election. A second referendum? A different (and softer) negotiated exit? Putting the polls aside, I feel as if BoJo has a significant advantage just by virtue of having a clear position. 

ABB-strategy.

Anything But Brexit.

Labour will campaign heavily on domestic policies ending austerity, raising wages, funding the NHS etc. Oh yeah, they'll also probably try to campaign on Corbyn (opposed to Johnson). They'll try to avoid talking about Brexit like the plague. In a sane world, this shouldn't work, because  ignoring the elephant in the room, doesn't make stench from the huge pile he dropped on the conference table go away.

[karaddin]

7 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said:

This election will be good for everyone, except the country and Labour.  Boris will get a majority, and purge his party of the rebels.  

My money is on him getting a majority and with the party thus purged he winds up back at no deal and it can't be stopped this time. Taking it off the table at this point means shit, he hasn't been punished for unethical and dishonest behaviour so far even with losses in parliament, why would he fear them then.

I hope I'm just being overly pessimistic, the last few years of electoral results don't paint a promising trend though.

[Which Tyler]

42 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

ABB-strategy.

Anything But Brexit.

Labour will campaign heavily on domestic policies ending austerity, raising wages, funding the NHS etc. Oh yeah, they'll also probably try to campaign on Corbyn (opposed to Johnson). They'll try to avoid talking about Brexit like the plague. In a sane world, this shouldn't work, because  ignoring the elephant in the room, doesn't make stench from the huge pile he dropped on the conference table go away.

Agreed. It's what they'll do, fighting the last war.

I really don't see it working.

[Gaston de Foix]

Here's some optimism from Ian Dunt: https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/10/29/election-2019-remainers-have-one-last-chance

For what it's worth, I don't see a Remain alliance coming together.  SNP/Lib Dems have fallen in with the government for party political reasons, not the national interest. 

[Ser Hedge]

In the end Lib Dems abstained! Guess because the date is 12th not 9th? In the end if the Tories win and pass the WAB and negotiate a light FTA agreement post-transition or even crash out on WTO terms, no one will remember the Lib Dems abstained, only that they were initially very happy to rush into an election as well.
 

But the big question is if the Tories try another cheeky run at a hyper speed WAB programme motion and if it passes (little chance), then actually try to do the WAB in the few days that are left? Not because they think they can pass it, but for optics - we tried to Brexit until the end.

[williamjm]

7 hours ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

Farage may want to be an MP, but you can't be a MEP and an MP at the same time.

I'm not sure if you have to stand down your MEP status before you run for election as an MP or only after you are elected.

 

Presumably the latter given how many times Farage has unsuccessfully run for Parliament while being a MP. 

[Werthead]

C4's Dispatches blew open a major story about the early discussions about a UK-US trade deal.

Proving Johnson to be even more of a liar, the NHS is not only on the table, it's already been sold off in principle. Under a new deal, NHS restrictions which allow superior value for money will be abolished and drug prices for the NHS from US sources are anticipated to rise by £27 billion.

[The Anti-Targ]

I wonder if Voters understand that even if the Withdrawal agreement passes that it's still possible, even likely that the UK leaves with no deal?

The good thing about 10 Tory MPs going back into the fold is that's 10 anti-no deal Tory MPs that will probably get back into parliament. Though I suspect if the Cons win a majority it will probably be a big one, because a lot of anti-no deal Tory voters will probably think no-deal has been totally averted now, so this is no longer an election where the prospect of a no-deal Brexit needs to be considered in one's voting choice. So seats that might have flipped to Lib Dem won't. I suspect the Lib Dems might find themselves in not much better position than they are now. So their support of an election now might be based on assumption of electoral success that is on shaky ground.

[Ser Hedge]

8 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

 

I wonder if Voters understand that even if the Withdrawal agreement passes that it's still possible, even likely that the UK leaves with no deal?

 

Crashing out on WTO terms at the end of transition, while economically damaging and not a good idea when you should at least be able to get a free trade agreement by being a little more patient, is not exactly the same as if we had crashed out with no deal on 31. Oct (or on 31. Jan if no WAB is passed by then).

The differences are:

1. The EU said in order to roll over most agreements even not related to trade or immigration (say civil aviation), the divorce settlement needs to be made first. If a WAB is passed, then this condition is met and hopefully common sense prevails on a range of issues including police cooperation.

2. Once in transition, the UK is free to enter into agreements with other countries in a way it wasn't while still in the EU. Makes little difference, with Trump poised to eat our lunch and Canada/Australia whoever not a replacement for choose ties with the EU.

3. No deal was really completely undefined territory and the stupid government campaign notwithstanding there is little that businesses that needed to move goods or fly people between the UK and the rest of Europe could really do to prepare since you didn't know if there was going to be a last minute deal or pure chaos. How much do you spend on contingency planning and then not look silly because it turns out the bully boys were just bluffing? If this gets narrowed down to a range of issues such as tariffs on goods, but don't worry off planes will still be flying and a definite date it removes a lot of the hysteria.

It's still bad and I am not trying to justify it, it's just not the same is all I'm saying.

[mormont]

14 hours ago, Bittersweet Distractor said:

Whilst I don’t like Johnson, the problem with that strategy is Corbyn is even less liked by some

Not sure of the relevance?

The point is that voters historically dislike snap elections, and are likely to dislike one in the run-up to Christmas even more than usual, and this dislike usually counts against the party who called the vote. The question is not whether they like Johnson or Corbyn: the question is, who do they blame for the fact that they're having an election in the first place?

11 hours ago, karaddin said:

My money is on him getting a majority and with the party thus purged he winds up back at no deal and it can't be stopped this time. 

This assumes that Johnson wants No Deal. He doesn't, really. He just wants to stay in power. If he wins a workable majority, he can do whatever deal he likes, so he will do a deal. It'll be a terrible deal with repercussions for the future of the country that I blanch to think about, but he will do a deal. 

[Jen'ari]

7 minutes ago, mormont said:

Not sure of the relevance?

The point is that voters historically dislike snap elections, and are likely to dislike one in the run-up to Christmas even more than usual, and this dislike usually counts against the party who called the vote. The question is not whether they like Johnson or Corbyn: the question is, who do they blame for the fact that they're having an election in the first place?

 

I’ve not had experience of an election before Christmas in my lifetime but agree that’s a fair point, although with the sheer frustration of the situation regarding Brexit, wether you are in favour of remain or leave do you think it might have less of an impact this time given that parliament has essentially been unable to do anything?. 
I’m unsure what to do in this election to be honest, think my only real choices are Lib Dem or spoil my ballot.

[mormont]

50 minutes ago, Bittersweet Distractor said:

I’ve not had experience of an election before Christmas in my lifetime

Few of us have - the last one was in 1923. You'd need to be 96 or over, and even then you likely wouldn't remember it. It's something of an unknown, because let's face it, Christmas was a whole different thing 96 years ago. But as I noted in a past thread, this election is likely to be rancorous and involve a huge amount of coverage, at a time of year when people want to be focused on buying presents and going to parties. I can't imagine that's going to go over well. Might well depress turnout, which is not a good thing. 

 

[The Marquis de Leech]

10 minutes ago, mormont said:

Few of us have - the last one was in 1923.

Considering the result of that election, I suspect Corbyn hopes history repeats.

[Spockydog]

1 hour ago, mormont said:

...so he will do a deal.

Not if he loses his seat, he won't.

The way he abandoned his constituents over the third runway at Heathrow is definitely going to cost him votes.

In 2015, he said, “I will lie down with you in front of those bulldozers and stop the building, stop the construction of that third runway.”

 

 

[Which Tyler]

1 hour ago, Bittersweet Distractor said:

I’ve not had experience of an election before Christmas in my lifetime but agree that’s a fair point, although with the sheer frustration of the situation regarding Brexit, wether you are in favour of remain or leave do you think it might have less of an impact this time given that parliament has essentially been unable to do anything?. 
I’m unsure what to do in this election to be honest, think my only real choices are Lib Dem or spoil my ballot.

It depends on your views, but mostly, this election is going to be about Brexit - so it's either vote Tory / BnP if you're in favour; or Lib Dem / Labour / Nationalist / Green if you're against.
Vote tactically, and vote for the party on either side with the best chance of winning your seat.

From a Remain perspective - this is not the time for friendly fire; it's a time for holding your nose and voting for the remain party most likely to win the seat; not for purity, idiology, demagoguery etc.

On the Leave side - if you want a hard Brexit, vote tory. If you want WTO terms then vote BnP (and check yourself into a psychiatric institute - because any non-millionniare actually wanting WTO terms, doesn't understand WTO terms)

Realisticlly, the overall outcomes are either a clear majority for the Cockwomble, a coalition between the Cockwomble and the Frog-face, a parliament that's no less split than currently, or a loose coalition of PM Corbyn, supported (somehow) by Lib Dem and the Nationalists.

 

I think that however much someone may distrust Corbyn, or not forgive the Lib Dems for their time in coalitition, or whatever else - this election is about bigger things. Vote for the lesser evil, even if you need several showers afterwards.

 

 

Of course, anyone who's a labour leaver should vote for labour anyway

[Heartofice]

2 hours ago, mormont said:

The point is that voters historically dislike snap elections, and are likely to dislike one in the run-up to Christmas even more than usual, and this dislike usually counts against the party who called the vote. The question is not whether they like Johnson or Corbyn: the question is, who do they blame for the fact that they're having an election in the first place?

Lol wut?! I'm sorry these points are simply wishful thinking.

More than likely it will have zero effect on the result. What will have an effect on the result is peoples frustration at Brexit, which has been hanging over our heads for years. 
 
edit - Also worth pointing out that any previous winter Elections have had higher turnouts than any election in the last few decades. 

[mormont]

51 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Not if he loses his seat, he won't.

The way he abandoned his constituents over the third runway at Heathrow is definitely going to cost him votes.

In 2015, he said, “I will lie down with you in front of those bulldozers and stop the building, stop the construction of that third runway.”

Fair, but I find it hard to believe that significant numbers of those who voted for Johnson last time are going to be shocked to discover he's a habitual liar who'll say whatever his audience wants to hear. 

 

[Spockydog]

12 minutes ago, mormont said:

Fair, but I find it hard to believe that significant numbers of those who voted for Johnson last time are going to be shocked to discover he's a habitual liar who'll say whatever his audience wants to hear. 

 

His majority at the last election dropped 13% to just over 5000. That was before he abstained on the third runway vote. 

All he needs to lose is a 5% swing to Labour, and Momentum have been targeting this constituency all year. His people are definitely worried.  In fact, there is a piece in the Mail today about him possibly elbowing another Tory out of the way somewhere else.

 

[Chaircat Meow]

There are more potential outcomes of this election than people realise. In particular, a hung Parliament producing a Tory + Liberal + DUP arrangement is being overlooked. Below I am going to lay out all the potential outcomes of the election, categorise them into good or bad and say something about some of them.

Before we start, to get an idea of how likely these outcomes are, we can note that betting markets are assigning a 50% probability of an outright Tory majority, a 45% probability of a hung Parliament and 5% of a Labour majority. This sounds about right to me. Also any hung Parliament is likely to be worse for the WAB than this one, as the odds of a Labour rebellion in favour of the WAB is probably decreased after the election given the party will have stood explicitly on an anti-WAB platform, some of the current rebels are retiring and others are in the seats most likely to fall to the Tories anyway.

So outcomes:

The Bad and Ugly:

1) Tory majority – the most likely outcome and one of the worst. The WAB passes and the country spends a decade or more in one form or another of Brexit purgatory and is diminished in wealth and power.

2) Labour majority – very unlikely but pretty grim; the Corbynites will reign supreme across the land and will attain a vice like grip over the party. Expect severe economic damage in this scenario, although maybe not as bad as Johnson’s Brexit.

3) Labour + SNP government (i.e. confidence and supply) – total shitshow. The issue here is the SNP want a second Scexit referendum in 2020. Now, assuming they still do once it is clear the UK is remaining in the EU (maybe not a given) what they are proposing is to secure a Remain victory via Scottish seats in the HoC and then withdraw those seats just 2 or 2 ½ years later (if they win Scexit 2 of course) while opening no doubt protracted negotiations with rUK to secure the terms of Scotland’s separation. This divorce would be negotiated with a government in London they would be propping up (and which would collapse immediately once they left) but would have to be passed by the HoC. I just foresee no crippling problems in this scenario at all and can’t imagine anyone else does.

The ambiguous:

4) Labour + Liberals + SNP – may share some of the defects of 3 but the Liberals might not be so willing to play ball with the SNP and would have more leverage over them given they could walk away and cut a deal with the Tories instead.

The good:

5) Labour + Liberals – Brexit is unlikely to happen and Corbyn is restrained

6) Tories + Liberals – The one everyone seems to be forgetting about. If the Tories do lose their majority they may have a choice between dropping Brexit/allowing a 3rd referendum or allowing Corbyn to stroll into No. 10 backed by the SNP. I would not rule out Brexit getting thrown under the bus in this scenario. Ideally I would like Swinson to demand the removal of Johnson. This scenario avoids Brexit, or at least gets a 3rd referendum and avoids Corbyn.

7) Tories + Liberals + DUP – same as 6 except in this scenario the DUP are needed to make up the numbers.

There are two other scenarios:

8) Tories + SNP

9) Labour + Liberals +  SNP + DUP

But I think these are impossible. Maybe 8 is not totally impossible if Johnson decides to throw the UK under the bus to get Brexit but it is very unlikely.