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UK Politics: A Partly Political Broadcast

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Anyway, even if the DUP fold and the ERG follow, a combination of the Tory rebels and Corbyn holding the line and threatening to withdraw the whip from Kinnock and company could still stop the deal but it would be, in someone else's words, as 'tight as fuck.'

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OK, apparently the LPF is actually back. So that might mean more Labour and Tory rebel votes but what about the ERG? Thought they couldn't swallow the LPF stuff? And it looks like Stormont do have a veto on backstop continuing (and not under double-majority rules).

Worried this will get through now. 

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16 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

Whatever happens, I think here these guys are being over-litigious (if that is the word)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/16/brexit-legal-action-stop-boris-johnson-putting-withdrawal-agreement-before-mps

C'mon, parliament cannot consider a bill because you filed a lawsuit asking a court to stop it? Because it contravenes another law? Well parliament can amend the other law. This has gone too far now.

It would perfectly sum up the last few years of politics if the Tories were unable to deliver the Brexit deal they now want because of a law they themselves wrote with the intention of preventing a future government agreeing to such a deal.

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Meanwhile Dunt has tried to figure out, what the agreement might roughly look like.

And who on Earth, or Westminster to be precise, might vote for that. And he points to some flaws in that calculus.

The main theme, the DUP and ERG are holding relatively still for the moment, because they haven't seen the details yet. Once they are worked out and out in the open, Johnson's entire construct might collapse. Potential Labour MPs in support will have a few questions for themself to answer. Why give Johnson a boon for an election by signing off on his deal (Brexit accomplished sorta thing).

And yes, I know one in ten cats will complain about the link again.

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Am I hearing mixed things from different sources about what the Johnson deal is going to be, or is it the same just stated differently?

Some people saying it's the May deal but with a border int he Irish sea. Other's saying it's a harder Brexit for the UK (other than NI) than the May deal.

I guess no one has the detailed agreement at the moment so there's some speculation, but is there anything qactually definitive in the public domain?

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1 minute ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Am I hearing mixed things from different sources about what the Johnson deal is going to be, or is it the same just stated differently?

Some people saying it's the May deal but with a border int he Irish sea. Other's saying it's a harder Brexit for the UK (other than NI) than the May deal.

I guess no one has the detailed agreement at the moment so there's some speculation, but is there anything qactually definitive in the public domain?

There is a lot of selective reporting going on for sure.

Below extract from FT:

 

The UK has conceded that Northern Ireland will apply the EU’s customs and tariffs rules and have them overseen by the European Court of Justice. The agreement means there will not be major customs checks on the island and instead all goods will be checked in Great Britain. 

Under the agreement, Northern Ireland would benefit from UK trade deals with third countries — a key demand of Mr Johnson — and Northern Irish businesses would be eligible for a rebate on some tariffs should the UK secure them. 

Key questions in the Brussels talks have included how to give the Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont a say on the arrangements — a particularly sensitive topic for the DUP. The Brussels negotiators settled on a complex system that would involve the assembly in having the opportunity to hold a vote on the customs and regulatory arrangements four years after the end of the UK’s post-Brexit transition period. 

If the assembly decided to continue with the arrangements, further opportunities to vote would arise in later years. Even if Northern Ireland were to vote to junk the system, a two-year cooling-off period would ensue.

The two sides also haggled over UK demands to deviate from EU environmental and labour standards after Brexit. The draft political declaration accompanying the withdrawal agreement makes it clear that a zero-tariff deal between the UK and EU will be predicated on a high level of regulatory alignment by the UK to EU standards. 

One EU diplomat said there was “genuine enthusiasm” in Brussels for securing a deal but that the EU27 wanted to be certain that the DUP was on board and that Mr Johnson could pass any deal in the Commons.

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Yeah, I can't see the DUP swallowing this. If the DUP say no, then the Indy Tories and ERG are unlikely to support it either.

Also, as the article says, Labour supporting it means basically handing Boris the keys to Downing Street until 2023, so what's in it for them?

If the DUP do accept it, apparently it will be because they've been bunged a lot more money than May game them. At this rate we need a new bus emblazoned with, "We send £350 million to the EU a week (we don't), let's give it to the DUP instead."

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From this report it looks like the EU are happy from their side with the deal (so presumably VAT concerns have been addressed) but do not want to hand over a signed deal for Westminster for them to then reject like last time. Westminster need to first say they're ok, and then presumably we have some EU27 muttering and tut-tutting about some details keeping us on the edge of our seats, EU parliament then approve and then we finally have a grand last minute special council summit where Bozo inks the deal with EU27 in the nick of time. Bozo will owe the EU big time for this, but since he's shameless it may not matter. At least that's the plan. 

Not to be outdone by the EU, you may well have Arlene hold out until Halloween to give her approval and Gina Miller and Jolly Maugham QC litigating in Scotland to the end. Spider woman Lady Hale probably won't want to be left out. Or Bercow for that matter. Who the hell knows. Too many drama kings and queens here.

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1 minute ago, Werthead said:

Yeah, I can't see the DUP swallowing this. If the DUP say no, then the Indy Tories and ERG are unlikely to support it either.

Also, as the article says, Labour supporting it means basically handing Boris the keys to Downing Street until 2023, so what's in it for them?

If the DUP do accept it, apparently it will be because they've been bunged a lot more money than May game them. At this rate we need a new bus emblazoned with, "We send £350 million to the EU a week (we don't), let's give it to the DUP instead."

If they accept it, it won't be because of the money. If the DUP say no then the options are Remain, Deal or No Deal. They don't want No Deal (for obvious reasons). It looks like any deal they do get will include the unpalatable backstop arrangements. So the only way to get out this conundrum is to hope for Remain but that's also bad, not so much in itself but because this means a big win for the 'progressive' parties who don't much care for them - it also sunders the alliance with conservative England and, of course, probably lets in Corbyn. So they don't want this, maybe the solution is just to go for the deal after all. At least they get to determine quite a few of the elements of this deal and can lay claim to any positive things in it for them. So they're on the fence due to the lack of options and the fact that bad as this deal is all other outcomes might be worse. 

Anyway, not sure, but I am having an attack of nerves because there is a plausible path to a big win for Boris here, lets hope Foster and Dodds hold the line and keep demanding the veto Brussels and Dublin will likely never agree to. 

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14 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Also, as the article says, Labour supporting it means basically handing Boris the keys to Downing Street until 2023, so what's in it for them?

Let's say they'll try to go the confirmatory referendum route, thinking Bozo resists. But maybe he says ok, and in the GE campaign goes "I delivered Brexit, but Labour stopped it?" So sequencing of GE and confirmatory referendum will be key. 

So if you were a Labour MP in a strong Leave constituency, you have to game theory it to figure out the least bad option. In a GE post Brexit you will face the least threat from the Brexit Party. If the confirmatory referendum has already taken place, then maybe you're ok (assuming the deal won over remain). GE before referendum would be their worst option.

Edited by Ser Hedge

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12 hours ago, Mosi Mynn said:

Have UK voters changed their minds on Brexit?

Stats/polls highlighting how divided the country is.  

How reputable is that poll?  My understanding was that most polls over recent years have been showing similar positions to the referendum when on an in/out simple question, with margin of error saying anyone could win.  However, that poll is saying that 50% of remain voters now support Brexit.  Given the shitshow that brexit has been, and my understanding of what polls even earlier this year were saying, that seems like a crazy swing.  

I'm not living in the UK anymore, but has the support for Remain really reduced by 50% in three years? 

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1 hour ago, ants said:

How reputable is that poll?  My understanding was that most polls over recent years have been showing similar positions to the referendum when on an in/out simple question, with margin of error saying anyone could win.  However, that poll is saying that 50% of remain voters now support Brexit.  Given the shitshow that brexit has been, and my understanding of what polls even earlier this year were saying, that seems like a crazy swing.  

I'm not living in the UK anymore, but has the support for Remain really reduced by 50% in three years? 

where do you get 50% from? 34% of people are remainers. Remain got, what 48%, in 2016? if you simply assume the difference is remainers becoming leavers of some description then it's only a 29% drop. But the poll has a large number of don't knows. In an actual referendumn people can't vote don't know, so it's possible that missing 14% are all in the don't know camp. A lot of them might also be in the single market / CU camp, and since there's almost no chance of that being an actual referendum option a bunch of those people are likely to go for remain over a harder Brexit.

To me the solid Brexit vote is 32% and the solid remain vote is 34%. That means there's 34% soft votes up for grabs (I think SM/CU "leavers" count as soft votes) by whomever can campaign for their votes most effectively. That does suggest a tight race, since there's not a very big difference in the firmly decided camps.

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Oops, not 50%, but ~33%  (1-34/48).  So still a damn lot. 

it would also seem strange if 14% of the don’t know voted remain. Seems a high share of don’t know. 

Edited by ants

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There's no legal text, it hasn't been approved by the European or UK Parliaments, and the DUP have said they can't support it. But yes, there is a deal. 

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4 hours ago, ants said:

Oops, not 50%, but ~33%  (1-34/48).  So still a damn lot. 

it would also seem strange if 14% of the don’t know voted remain. Seems a high share of don’t know. 

I do think people who aren't sure will probably mostly go for the devil they know (remain) than the devil they don't. Isn't that kind of a known thing? When a fence sitter has to make a choice they will generally go for the familiar. Of course no one is going to force fence sitters to vote, so they might stay astride the fence even if there is a referendum. It's not like 2016 got close to 100% turnout.

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I guess the political calculus for Johnson is that he wants to be able to say he got a deal, even if it's got very a low chance of actually being ratified.

He's betting (probably correctly) that the general public are not going to bother closely comparing this to May's deal.

Therefore he can say, he did what everyone was saying he wouldn't be able to do, he beat the odds, he got a Great Deal Better Than Theresa May's, but Parliament/DUP/whoever mucked it all up.

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