Heartofice Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 9 hours ago, williamjm said: If Boris does lose narrowly and is forced into an extension he might feel he is well placed for a general election, since he campaign on delivering a deal as long as he gets a majority. The potential risk for him might be if the deal is unpopular with the leave voters, and they vote for Farage instead. Farage himself has come out against the deal, and in quite a bizarre turn is defending the Benn act. It seems quite a hilarious act of self harm and I’d say most Brexit voters are pretty happy with Boris’ deal and would disagree with him. Also ‘bored of Brexit’ is trending quite strongly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 11 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: How serious is the court action re the Irish sea border being illegal (because of a law JRM put in place to prevent it from happening under May's watch)? If it's illegal to vote for a deal containing such a border without amending the relevant bit of legislation then not only is there a chance of a deal not getting enough votes, but it could be there can't even be a vote on the deal before 19 Oct. Implicit repeal. (Mind you, who the hell knows any more with these judges...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HexMachina Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 48 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said: Implicit repeal. (Mind you, who the hell knows any more with these judges...). I'd take a look at Thoburn though and the potential that this isn't a piece of legislation that can be implicitly repealed. Coming down to the question of course of whether it is constitutionally significant enough, which I think a reasonable argument can be made for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted October 18, 2019 Author Share Posted October 18, 2019 13 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: Some speculation that Boris told the DUP it was fine for them to abstain because that would play well for them back home, because Boris is confident he'll get enough rebels and Labour to make up the numbers. That's bizarre. If the DUP abstain, and the deal passes, but it would not have passed had they voted against, then they would have in effect stood aside and let it pass. How does that play well for them? 13 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: Interestingly if this deal axes the EU labour protections and the Tories end up gutting labour laws, in the medium term will that help Labour get back into govt? One of the main appeals to the masses from labour parties is worker protection laws. But if the UK worker has been (probably unknowingly) leaning on EU labour regulations then that weakens one of the Labour electoral platforms. Playing the long game therefore Labour could campaign on better worker protections than the old EU arrangements. Labour should not fear loss of EU worker protections. Yeah, I don't see any of this at all. The worker protections in question are all incorporated into UK law, so they would first have to be repealed. Johnson doesn't have the votes to do that right now, but let's accept that this is his goal, because it is. To do that properly he needs to win an election, and have that repeal in his manifesto. It can't be simultaneously true that you can win an election campaigning to repeal worker protections and also win one campaigning to improve them. It's also odd to suggest that we could not have had better working protections anyway: if this were really an election-winning gambit in the UK, Labour could already have campaigned on it. This strikes me as overthinking things. There's no reason to believe that Labour shouldn't fear the loss of EU worker protections. 13 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: A deal probably gives Boris the ability to see out the full term and not have to call a GE, right? But he wants a general election. Why would he want to see out the term in a minority government that will struggle to get anything done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 The BBC reckon that 302 are voting for the deal, 301 against, with 30 yet to express a view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 I won't get the chance to read this for a few hours yet - but it looks important: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-vote-saturday-boris-johnson-commons-no-deal-amendment-letwin-a9162106.html? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A wilding Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Anyone else going on the march tomorrow? It looks like it may be the biggest one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Humorous thought (admittedly very unlikely to happen tho). Johnson loses by one vote, with May voting his deal down, because of NI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Hedge Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 FT thinks 319 for 315 against. https://www.ft.com/content/8518dfe6-f1be-11e9-ad1e-4367d8281195 Sounds like the most optimistic of any scenario involving DUP voting against. "Downing Street attempted to win over more Labour MPs with plans for EU-equivalent employment rights to be written into the withdrawal agreement bill that would implement Mr Johnson’s deal." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 37 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said: FT thinks 319 for 315 against. https://www.ft.com/content/8518dfe6-f1be-11e9-ad1e-4367d8281195 Sounds like the most optimistic of any scenario involving DUP voting against. "Downing Street attempted to win over more Labour MPs with plans for EU-equivalent employment rights to be written into the withdrawal agreement bill that would implement Mr Johnson’s deal." That would most certainly cost him ERG votes on the other side. On that notion Jayanetti basically asking the critical question for Labour MPs. With regards to the Level Playing Field rules. Quote [...] It is not possible to satisfy the demands of both right wing Brexiters and pro-deal Labour MPs on this point. Indeed, there is evidence that 90s-era Eurosceptics aren't happy with Johnson's deal. The old school eurosceptics in the Bruges Group oppose the deal and veteran Eurosceptics like Owen Paterson and Iain Duncan Smith are thought to be restive. Someone is going to get burned. The question for Labour MPs is whose side will Johnson take once Britain is out of the EU. It's true that Dominic Cummings is no friend to the ERG. But equally, they are Tory MPs while Labour MPs are not. To assume Johnson will side with opposition MPs when push comes to shove would be quite the leap of faith.[...] Putting the Level Playing Field Rules back into the Legally Binding WA (instead of the non-binding future relationship declaration) would move things towards the Labour side of things. Then we have those morons (as a sign of civility I am not refering to a certain poster by name) banging on about Brexit in Name Only. And Johnson needs the kool-aid crowd votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Hedge Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 10 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: That would most certainly cost him ERG votes on the other side. On that notion Jayanetti basically asking the critical question for Labour MPs. With regards to the Level Playing Field rules. Putting the Level Playing Field Rules back into the Legally Binding WA (instead of the non-binding future relationship declaration) would move things towards the Labour side of things. Then we have those morons (as a sign of civility I am not refering to a certain poster by name) banging on about Brexit in Name Only. And Johnson needs the kool-aid crowd votes. That does sound logical, but at the same time it might be politically costly for an ERG MP to oppose a meaningful vote on a bill that lets you leave the EU at this point. They will certainly lose the whip and should be the end of their career (actually a good thing for the country!) A cross-section of the media think there will be no Tory rebels in a straight vote, and only 3 de-whipped Tories voting against. Norman Lamb of the Lib Dems reportedly considering voting for the bill as well. So it would come down to how many Labour MPs vote for. The Letwin amendment could cause a lot of confusion though. Might make it easier for Labour MPs to support, while ERG and other Tories might balk at voting for an extension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Like I said, it all comes down to how many Labour MPs are willing to defy the whip to give Johnson that election boost. Is it still ten, who declared to vote for it? Surprisingly Hoey is not among them, she does as Frogface commanded and will presumably vote with the DUP. On the brighter side of things, Hammond has apparently not decided what he will do. Remember the ERG see that agreement as a way to achieve their crash out destination in a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophelia Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 16 hours ago, A wilding said: Anyone else going on the march tomorrow? It looks like it may be the biggest one yet. Yes I'll be marching - hope it gets some news coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophelia Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Sophelia said: Yes I'll be marching - hope it gets some news coverage. Loads of people trying to get on tube to get to the march but either it's being organised differently or not as many people as last time - more police though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophelia Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Actually I just realised it's not due to set off for another hour so I arrived earlier than last time so that could explain it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 On the differences between Boris and Mays deal: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Have a nice march! Am I the only one who's a bit skeptical about the UK enforcing EU customs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophelia Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 The police have asked us to squish up a bit because we are blocking the roads -duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 @Sophelia, you're in excellent company! Sorry, the board doesn't let me link the image directly. https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-news-verfolgen-sie-die-debatte-mit-boris-johnson-im-liveblog-a-1292199.html (Sir Patrick Stewart) More images of the march: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/gallery/2019/oct/19/thousands-join-peoples-vote-march-london-brexit-second-referendum-in-pictures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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