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UK Politics: A Partly Political Broadcast

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2 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

They didn't have a majority even before the rebels left. That's why they needed to cosy up to the DUP to form a govt. And with what the Johnson deal does to Northern Ireland I don't think the Tories could rely on the DUP this time around. They may end up with a small outright majority, but that makes winning votes to deliver no-deal very hard, since there will still be Tory MPs opposed to no deal.

Some polls give them a 90 seat majority.

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Some reports that Bercow will not allow an indicative vote tomorrow, saying that they already had one (amended) on Saturday and you can't have two votes on the same thing in the same Parliament etc. That's interesting and highly debatable (they voted on the amendment but I believe not on the indicative vote itself).

That means they'll have to vote on the legislation itself, and apparently Labour already have two amendments planned, for a new referendum and one for a customs union. The BBC reporting that the DUP will consider both amendments seriously.

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6 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Some polls give them a 90 seat majority.

So Labour losing a shit ton of seats to the Tories rather than the Lib Dems? It beggars belief that they would pick up 98 seats over the 2017 election result and even 85 more seats than in the 2015 election. Perhaps a mis-read of that poll? 90 more seats than what they have right now, which is 288, giving them 378 and a 52 seat majority. That would probably still be enough for them to get whatever deal, or no deal through that they want, but a more realistic win than a 90 seat majority.

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18 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

So Labour losing a shit ton of seats to the Tories rather than the Lib Dems?

There are a lot of Labour/Tory marginal seats and very few Labour/Lib Dem marginal seats, so a big drop in the Labour vote could benefit the Tories more. Most of the seats the Lib Dems might hope to win are Tory seats.

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41 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Some reports that Bercow will not allow an indicative vote tomorrow, saying that they already had one (amended) on Saturday and you can't have two votes on the same thing in the same Parliament etc. That's interesting and highly debatable (they voted on the amendment but I believe not on the indicative vote itself).

That means they'll have to vote on the legislation itself, and apparently Labour already have two amendments planned, for a new referendum and one for a customs union. The BBC reporting that the DUP will consider both amendments seriously.

I believe the the indicate vote passed, technically, but was rendered nugatory by the Lewtin amendment. I think Bercow will rightly block this. 

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19 minutes ago, williamjm said:

There are a lot of Labour/Tory marginal seats and very few Labour/Lib Dem marginal seats, so a big drop in the Labour vote could benefit the Tories more. Most of the seats the Lib Dems might hope to win are Tory seats.

Enough for an almost 100 seat swing from 2017? Seems highly unlikely.

The other thing that beggars belief is that no-deal is still remotely on the cards even though it's clear a majority of the people don't want it and a majority of parliament don't want it and it has voted that way on more than one occasion. I guess there isn;t a majority in parliament willing to pass a "if it looks like the UK will crash out without a deal this Bill will automatically trigger a revocation of Art 50" kind of Bill. But really, any MP determined to prevent no-deal Brexit should be looking for that sort of solution to prevent a no-deal for good and all.

But I think too few MPs are actually that determined to prevent a no-deal and they would rather have a no-deal than to appear to be attempting remain by stealth and facing the accusation of going against the ill-gotten 2016 referendum result.

Edited by The Anti-Targ

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8 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I don't know why the EU seems to care that some people in Britain accuse the EU of trying to stop the UK from leaving the EU. They should just say leaving the EU is for Britain to do, but the EU isn't going to kick the UK out because of some arbitrary deadline. Every time the UK asks for an extension it will be granted, until it stops asking and actually make a decision, one way or the other. Just because a deadline is extended it doesn't stop the UK leaving earlier if it sorts its shit out (there is no practical time now, but in theory the UK can leave any time so long as the right votes succeed in Parliament).

I didn't realize the wait-and-watch was confirmed.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-delay/eu-plays-for-time-as-johnson-spars-with-uk-parliament-on-brexit-idUKKBN1WZ08Q

Should push really come to shove, I would think an extension is still granted, but it looks like the EU are giving this every chance to pass through commons.
 

The optics so far around Brexit are that the mess is on the UK's side (to state the obvious). If the WAB is voted down or gets deadlocked with never ending amendments, and the EU ask for a plan around resolving the deadlock before granting an extension (GE, referendum) they would still look within their rights to do that. I don't think they're going to (want to) signal they will keep rolling it over automatically every time, partly probably for the reasons Münchau listed (ie really want to move on + current uncertainty dragging economies down).
 

You can also see this on our side of the channel in how UK business is coming around to arguing that the certainty of a deal is better than the current gridlock, though one hopes Labour can extract firm commitments that we will not crash out on WTO terms after transition. Surprising Carney, IoD et al didn't seem to highlight that particular risk much. Maybe they trust Boris more than Letwin did? LOL

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Meanwhile, the DUP are demonstrating their commitment to NI being in complete harmony with the rest of the UK by, er, organising a recall for Stormont in order to oppose the harmonisation of laws on abortion and gay marriage. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50115449

It won't make any difference, but it's telling that the DUP are perfectly willing to see borders in the Irish Sea for some issues but not others. 

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Bercow refuses to allow 'meaningful vote' on Brexit deal.

“My ruling is that the motion will not be debated today as it would be repetitive and disorderly to do so”

Edited by Mindwalker

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Some grumbling, but the ruling appears pretty solid. It would make no sense to have Parliament say on Saturday that they want the bill passed before they grant approval, and then vote on Monday on whether to grant approval. 

This was never going to work, but the Department of Clever Wheezes clearly wanted to try it so they could blame the evil Speaker for not allowing the vote. Expect plenty more from that department in the days to come - government by Clever Wheezes is clearly Johnson's MO. 

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Yes, Bercow's reasoning seemed sound. Of course I am no lawyer, much less in British constitutonal law, so there's that.

At any rate, I'm going to miss him. He was by far the most entertaining thing in this never-ending drama...

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10 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

Yes, Bercow's reasoning seemed sound.

And he also managed to quote Rees-Mogg from March when May was trying to get another "meaningful vote" to support the ruling.

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Quick reminder of how much Letwin has screwed over Johnson.

If the HoC succesfully attach any amendments to the Withdrawal Bill, Johnson has to go back to the EU and try to renegotiate. Tactically the weakest spot appears to be the NI custom arrangements. Just pit the DUPed MPs against their former allies. Throw in a few amendments concerning workers rights (which are destined to get voted down) to hopefully get the Labour dealers back in line.

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In Westminster news away from Westminster... Northern Ireland have being dragged, kicking and screaming, into the 21st century; as the DUP get their wish of having similar laws in NI and RotUK.
Which means legalisation for abortion and gay marriage.
Wait, hang on, no, that's not the DUP want at all, it's just the natural sequelae of what they want... against their wishes... erm...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50115449

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TBH since Johnson has neutralised 'the wait him out beyond Oct 31' strategy by doing his deal I think it is hard to see how Remainers can refuse an election. I am not sure what the point is of trying to fight the WAB through all the stages, the most you get out of that is for it be thrown out via amendments and then you are back to square one. So Johnson has played a blinder here really, and he's obviously much better set up for an election than he was before. See no recourse but to put down the VONC (if the DUP are willing) and try and claw it back. 

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If there's a chaple in Westminster, Johnson should go there every night thank his god and light a candle for Jeremy Corbyn.

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger

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20 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

OK, I see I was being very naive in assuming it had not been written yet - it seems this must have been written previously [I guess it had to be for the EU to agree to it??], but is only now being revealed, because the government were forced to put it to Parliament before getting the deal agreed, by the Letwin amendment.  

According to the BBC, the government is going to try and insist that this is discussed in the next three days and keep the MPs at work until midnight, the price of trying to get the deal through by 31st October, somewhat inhumane for the MPs and also a danger something might be overlooked by tired eyes.  (How they can both have time to take it in *and* to argue about it I don't know!)

But just looking at it, surely this needs people to have several days to read it and ask questions of lawyers, before then debating it.  There are things I would not trust, for example the list of workers rights to be retained included things like the maximum 48 hours/week and right for 4 weeks holidays etc., but it also says "References in this Schedule to rights being of the same kind as new EU workers’ rights are to be read as references to rights being of the same kind so far as that is consistent with the United Kingdom’s domestic legal order following its withdrawal from the EU" which to me makes it sound like the Tories could just wipe out those rights subsequently (which is what many fear, though others say that is the whole point of Brexit - probably depends if you are a worker or a business-owner...).

Edited by Sophelia

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I guess, if the opposition can get a VONC there is one thing they can do to turn the election around. As Boris has a deal he could get through with a majority if he won one there is no need to bother with this referendum nonsense anymore. McDonnell should just change Labour's position to revoke. Attack with three prongs; EU = good/Brexit based on a lie for the Remainers and soft-brexiteers, Johnson's deal = a form of vassalage for the hard brexiteers, it is very important to carpet bomb the Johnson deal from the other side as one of the main reasons he wants to get this done in such a hurry is to avoid his fragile pro-Brexit alliance falling apart, anti-austerity/Labour populist measures for the lets talk about something else crowd, maybe mix this in why Johnson's get 'Brexit done' is so wrong. 

The thing with this is, if Labour goes as hard for Remain as possible you are going to stealing Liberal votes back and if you also repel some hard brexiteers from Johnson you might start pushing Labour back up into the thirties where Johnson seems to be at the moment. The problem isn't that there are more people willing to vote for a party that wants to deliver Brexit than Remain; there actually aren't, the issue is the division on the Remain side is greater than on the Leave. A desperate rearguard Remain election cobbled together with some of the popular leftwing policies Labour has has a chance. Some of this just get Brexit done stuff is quite shallow and the voters could be tempted away with something decisive.

Just my thoughts. 

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