UK Politics: A Partly Political Broadcast

[The Marquis de Leech]

Nick Clegg could say a few things about the possibility of a Tory-Liberal deal. But, yes, so much is up in the air at the moment that I wouldn't put money on any possibility.

[karaddin]

3 hours ago, mormont said:

This assumes that Johnson wants No Deal. He doesn't, really. He just wants to stay in power. If he wins a workable majority, he can do whatever deal he likes, so he will do a deal. It'll be a terrible deal with repercussions for the future of the country that I blanch to think about, but he will do a deal. 

You're right, I was assuming that. I'm about 50/50 on Boris personally wanting it vs the hardliners in his party being even more emboldened by a win and him being happier to give them what they want than fighting them. 

But its not a fear founded on logic and what would make sense, just pessimism borne of repeatedly seeing things go worse than reason and polling suggest. I very much hope to be wrong on as many of those points as possible.

[mormont]

23 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

His majority at the last election dropped 13% to just over 5000. That was before he abstained on the third runway vote. 

All he needs to lose is a 5% swing to Labour, and Momentum have been targeting this constituency all year. His people are definitely worried.  In fact, there is a piece in the Mail today about him possibly elbowing another Tory out of the way somewhere else.

His majority dropped but his share of the vote, and absolute number of votes, actually increased slightly. Why? It appears because the UKIP vote in the constituency defected back to the Tories, and that made up for the people who switched away from the Tories after 2015. 

More relevantly, if you total up the votes of all other candidates except Labour and the Tories in 2017, there aren't 5,000. (In fact every other candidate lost their deposit.) That means Labour can only really win by getting Tory voters to switch directly to Labour, and in significant numbers, which seems a futile wish: or hope that UKIP recover and take votes back from Johnson by the thousands, a more realistic scenario but still vulnerable to the notion that Labour in 2017 got about as many votes as they can ever hope to get in that constituency. Certainly, they've already had the maximum benefit from tactical voting. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

[Spockydog]

Do we know if Farage actually intends to run a candidate in every seat? If so, there's a chance they'll cut each other's throats.

 

[mormont]

1 hour ago, Spockydog said:

Do we know if Farage actually intends to run a candidate in every seat? If so, there's a chance they'll cut each other's throats.

 

It's unlikely they'll run in every seat: that's a lot of money to invest. But it seems pretty much guaranteed the Brexit party will run someone in Johnson's seat. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

16 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The good thing about 10 Tory MPs going back into the fold is that's 10 anti-no deal Tory MPs that will probably get back into parliament. Though I suspect if the Cons win a majority it will probably be a big one, because a lot of anti-no deal Tory voters will probably think no-deal has been totally averted now, so this is no longer an election where the prospect of a no-deal Brexit needs to be considered in one's voting choice. So seats that might have flipped to Lib Dem won't. I suspect the Lib Dems might find themselves in not much better position than they are now. So their support of an election now might be based on assumption of electoral success that is on shaky ground.

Ahum, no.

Most of them are not running for re-election I think.

Clarke and Soames said as much for them.

Stewart is busy filming documentaries for national geographic (black crooks in their natural habitat or something) or running for London Mayor, or both. Nobody gives a damn. The ever opportunistic Rudd could see the writing on the wall and is also stepping down - altho I think her seat was up for grabs anyway, like I said, she could see the writing on the wall.

That leaves Bercow, Grieve and Hammond.

Our resident cat probably has a better idea, which of those Tory rebels is actually running for re-election.

[Jen'ari]

4 hours ago, mormont said:

Few of us have - the last one was in 1923. You'd need to be 96 or over, and even then you likely wouldn't remember it. It's something of an unknown, because let's face it, Christmas was a whole different thing 96 years ago. But as I noted in a past thread, this election is likely to be rancorous and involve a huge amount of coverage, at a time of year when people want to be focused on buying presents and going to parties. I can't imagine that's going to go over well. Might well depress turnout, which is not a good thing. 

 

I don’t know where I had the idea that there were some in the 60s or 70s from?, maybe I thought there were as there were quite frequent elections with a change in government being more frequent for some of that time.

I think we are all expecting the gloves to be off in this one, and I completely agree about a depressed turnout not being good at all.

I’m interested in seeing who’s standing where I live, it’s a very Tory seat but very pro remain too  with Dominic Raab as the incumbent MP.

3 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

It depends on your views, but mostly, this election is going to be about Brexit - so it's either vote Tory / BnP if you're in favour; or Lib Dem / Labour / Nationalist / Green if you're against.
Vote tactically, and vote for the party on either side with the best chance of winning your seat.

From a Remain perspective - this is not the time for friendly fire; it's a time for holding your nose and voting for the remain party most likely to win the seat; not for purity, idiology, demagoguery etc.

On the Leave side - if you want a hard Brexit, vote tory. If you want WTO terms then vote BnP (and check yourself into a psychiatric institute - because any non-millionniare actually wanting WTO terms, doesn't understand WTO terms)

Realisticlly, the overall outcomes are either a clear majority for the Cockwomble, a coalition between the Cockwomble and the Frog-face, a parliament that's no less split than currently, or a loose coalition of PM Corbyn, supported (somehow) by Lib Dem and the Nationalists.

 

I think that however much someone may distrust Corbyn, or not forgive the Lib Dems for their time in coalitition, or whatever else - this election is about bigger things. Vote for the lesser evil, even if you need several showers afterwards.

 

 

Of course, anyone who's a labour leaver should vote for labour anyway

If I had to say where I was politically I’d probably say a very centerist,pro remain Tory, I don’t have much of an issue with centre left politics either so would be happy enough voting for the Lib Dems, I certainly couldn’t bring myself to vote for the Tories in their current guise.

[Which Tyler]

3 minutes ago, Bittersweet Distractor said:

I’m interested in seeing who’s standing where I live, it’s a very Tory seat but very pro remain too  with Dominic Raab as the incumbent MP.

If I had to say where I was politically I’d probably say a very centerist,pro remain Tory, I don’t have much of an issue with centre left politics either so would be happy enough voting for the Lib Dems, I certainly couldn’t bring myself to vote for the Tories in their current guise.

With Raab as your MP, voting for whoever gets him out would be doing the Tories a favour!

[Chaircat Meow]

16 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

With Raab as your MP, voting for whoever gets him out would be doing the Tories a favour!

Very true.

Down with Raab!!!

[Which Tyler]

Hmmm - election on Thursday the 12th

Which means we'll find out the results on Friday 13th...

What could possibly go wrong?

[Fez]

Because FPTP voting can get so wonky when there's more than 2 big parties involved; is there some national vote threshold where the LibDems could just explode in size, to 100+ or 150+ members? Or are they too regionally concentrated for something like that?

I've seen a few polls where they are only a few points behind Labour to be in second place.

[Maltaran]

2 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Ahum, no.

Most of them are not running for re-election I think.

Clarke and Soames said as much for them.

Stewart is busy filming documentaries for national geographic (black crooks in their natural habitat or something) or running for London Mayor, or both. Nobody gives a damn. The ever opportunistic Rudd could see the writing on the wall and is also stepping down - altho I think her seat was up for grabs anyway, like I said, she could see the writing on the wall.

That leaves Bercow, Grieve and Hammond.

Our resident cat probably has a better idea, which of those Tory rebels is actually running for re-election.

Bercow's standing down as is traditional for a retiring Speaker, Grieve is standing as an independent, don't know about Hammond.

[Jen'ari]

3 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

With Raab as your MP, voting for whoever gets him out would be doing the Tories a favour!

I'd say the only people in with a chance would be the Lib Dems to be honest, or perhaps a decent independant, Labour wouldn't stand a chance.

[Ser Hedge]

4 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Ahum, no.

Most of them are not running for re-election I think.

Clarke and Soames said as much for them.

Stewart is busy filming documentaries for national geographic (black crooks in their natural habitat or something) or running for London Mayor, or both. Nobody gives a damn. The ever opportunistic Rudd could see the writing on the wall and is also stepping down - altho I think her seat was up for grabs anyway, like I said, she could see the writing on the wall.

That leaves Bercow, Grieve and Hammond.

Our resident cat probably has a better idea, which of those Tory rebels is actually running for re-election.

 

1 hour ago, Maltaran said:

Bercow's standing down as is traditional for a retiring Speaker, Grieve is standing as an independent, don't know about Hammond.

Hammond considering.

Grieve and Sandbach standing as independents.

Anna Soubry standing for TGChuck-whatever it's called.

[Liffguard]

I signed up to do some campaign volunteering for the first time ever. Very, very keen to deny the conservatives as much support as possible.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

Anna Soubry standing for TGChuck-whatever it's called.

Soubry was/is not part of the 10 rebels that got kicked out by Johnson. Totally forgot about the many named group. Those are also seats that will probably fall back into Tory hands. Or at least I think this will be an uphill battle to keep them out of their clutches.

On an unrelated note. Any news whether Hoey will run for the Tories or DUP in Vauxhall?

[Which Tyler]

www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=718716961969781&id=563769867464492

 

ETA: Sorry, doesn't seem to be doing anpreciew today

"Analysis shows how tactical voting could secure a remainer majority. Don't worry about party seats ... we just need to focus hard on tactical voting and ensuring a secure remain majority.

The only concern with this analysis is that there's no mention of The Brexit Party? (Source: Guardian)" follow link for data

[Chaircat Meow]

11 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=718716961969781&id=563769867464492

 

ETA: Sorry, doesn't seem to be doing anpreciew today

"Analysis shows how tactical voting could secure a remainer majority. Don't worry about party seats ... we just need to focus hard on tactical voting and ensuring a secure remain majority.

The only concern with this analysis is that there's no mention of The Brexit Party? (Source: Guardian)" follow link for data

Diagram suggests under both 30% and 40% tactical voting scenarios the Tory + Liberal (+DUP) option would be viable. That might be a better way to a remain result than the Labour/SNP/Liberal shiteshow. 

[Ser Hedge]

38 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Soubry was/is not part of the 10 rebels that got kicked out by Johnson. Totally forgot about the many named group. Those are also seats that will probably fall back into Tory hands.

No she's not. I was merely looking at all ex-Tories now standing in their original seat as an independent or TIG-chucker (effectively independent as well). 

It looks like the Midlands and the (formerly) industrial parts of the North are the Michigan and Pennsylvania of this election.

[Which Tyler]

26 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Diagram suggests under both 30% and 40% tactical voting scenarios the Tory + Liberal (+DUP) option would be viable. That might be a better way to a remain result than the Labour/SNP/Liberal shiteshow. 

It's viable in that it would have enough seats.

It's absolutely not viable in that it is simply not possible to put that alliance together, even for confidence and supply. There's a reason why you're the onky person talking about it as a possibility.