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Why did Robb keep Edmure in the dark about his plan?


Angel Eyes

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So Robb’s plan was to draw Tywin Lannister’s army into the Westerlands and defeat him. On the other hand, Robb knows that Edmure is going to fight any Lannister army that poses a threat to the Riverlands if not told “no”. So why didn’t Robb tell Edmure “let ‘em pass, we’re trying to bleed him dry”? Not telling Edmure meant that Tywin had a few more days to learn of Stannis’ attack on the capital and the alliance of the Tyrells, which meant that the Boltons were going to turn on Robb because they didn’t want to be on the losing side, and the Red Wedding.

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Before Robb leaving for the Westerlands, Edmure had pressured him to free the riverlords to take back their lands, so Edmure only has garrison, and not a true army to defy Tywin.

“And whose doing is that?” Catelyn snapped at her brother. It had been at Edmure’s insistence that Robb had given the river lords leave to depart after his crowning, each to defend his own lands. Ser Marq Piper and Lord Karyl Vance had been the first to go. Lord Jonos Bracken had followed, vowing to reclaim the burnt shell of his castle and bury his dead, and now Lord Jason Mallister had announced his intent to return to his seat at Seagard, still mercifully untouched by the fighting.

Robb at this point does not have the plan to lure Tywin in conceived yet, he wants to take the Golden Tooth and neutralize Stafford's army before it's ready to march.

“By now Robb is at the Golden Tooth,” Theon said. “Once it falls, he’ll be through the hills in a day. Lord Tywin’s host is at Harrenhal, cut off from the west. The Kingslayer is a captive at Riverrun. Only Ser Stafford Lannister and the raw green levies he’s been gathering remain to oppose Robb in the west. Ser Stafford will put himself between Robb’s army and Lannisport, which means the city will be undefended when we descend on it by sea."

Robb ends up  by passing the Golden tooth and after the battle of Oxcross, Robb starts to take several castles, and at this moment I imagine that he realized that the Westerlands, were defenseless, and started to plan how to draw Tywin. And then he starts to go for the gold, raids and cattle.

The only mystery is how your brother reached him. Our forces still hold the stronghold at the Golden Tooth, and they swear he did not pass.” The dwarf gave an irritated shrug. “Well, Robb Stark is my father’s bane. Joffrey is mine. Tell me, what do you feel for my kingly nephew?”

“My lords,” he said gravely, “we have had a message from His Grace, with both good news and ill. He has won a great victory in the west, shattering a Lannister army at a place named Oxcross, and has taken several castles as well. He writes us from Ashemark, formerly the stronghold of House Marbrand.”

It is now that it get's weird, Robb is sending his commands, and informing his vassals of his next target. We know that Mormont is leading the stolen cattle to the riverlands, and yet we are told that he cannot be reached, and he also does not inform of his plans. If you want to blame Robb this is the moment he should inform about his intentions.

“Robb should know of this at once,” she said. “Do we know where he is?”

“At last word he was marching toward the Crag, the seat of House Westerling,” said Maester Vyman. “If I dispatched a raven to Ashemark, it may be that they could send a rider after him.”

Edmure at this point is starting his plan to deal with Tywin, he is commanding Roose to take Harenhal, but he does not try to inform Robb, he even expect Robb to come and help him, even though he can't be reached and never talked about such plan and is now marching in the oposite direction, Tywin still in the south and has not started his march. Edmure is going out of his way to seek battle.

They were all her father’s bannermen, lords of the Trident. Most had left Riverrun before she had, to defend their own lands. If they were here again, it could only mean that Edmure had called them back. Gods save us, it’s true, he means to offer battle to Lord Tywin.

 

“Can Robb be reached by raven?”

“He’s in the field, my lady,” Ser Desmond replied. “The bird would have no way to find him.

And then Edmure starts his blunder, he still does not have his army with him, they are still gathering, Robb never get knews of this, as far as he know Edmure only has his garrison to hold Riverrun as he was ordered. Edmure is going against his command and going to the offensive. 

“Cat,” he said unhappily, “Lord Tywin is coming—”

“He is making for the west, to defend his own lands. If we close our gates and shelter behind the walls, we can watch him pass with safety.”

“You do not have the strength to meet the Lannisters in the field,” she said bluntly.

“When all my strength is marshaled, I should have eight thousand foot and three thousand horse,” Edmure said.

It's not Robb who has to tell Edmure anything, is Edmure that has to tell Robb about his intentions, his plan even depends on Robb helping him.

Robb’s won his battles against worse odds,” Edmure replied, “and I have a plan. You’ve forgotten Roose Bolton. Lord Tywin defeated him on the Green Fork, but failed to pursue. When Lord Tywin went to Harrenhal, Bolton took the ruby ford and the crossroads. He has ten thousand men. I’ve sent word to Helman Tallhart to join him with the garrison Robb left at the Twins—”

"Bolton needs Frey’s men, and Ser Helman’s as well. I’ve commanded him to retake Harrenhal.”

“That’s like to be a bloody business.”

“Yes, but once the castle falls, Lord Tywin will have no safe retreat. My own levies will defend the fords of Red Fork against his crossing. If he attacks across the river, he’ll end as Rhaegar did when he tried to cross the Trident. If he holds back, he’ll be caught between Riverrun and Harrenhal, and when Robb returns from the west we can finish him for good and all.”

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2 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Before Robb leaving for the Westerlands, Edmure had pressured him to free the riverlords to take back their lands, so Edmure only has garrison, and not a true army to defy Tywin...

Excellent account of the events, many things that are easily forgotten.

 

2 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Robb’s won his battles against worse odds,” Edmure replied, “and I have a plan. You’ve forgotten Roose Bolton. Lord Tywin defeated him on the Green Fork, but failed to pursue. When Lord Tywin went to Harrenhal, Bolton took the ruby ford and the crossroads. He has ten thousand men. I’ve sent word to Helman Tallhart to join him with the garrison Robb left at the Twins—” 

I've myself forgotten about the red. Indeed, Robb left Tallhart to keep Frey in check, but Edmure ordered him to leave the Twins, making easier to plan the Red Wedding.

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17 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

So Robb’s plan was to draw Tywin Lannister’s army into the Westerlands and defeat him. On the other hand, Robb knows that Edmure is going to fight any Lannister army that poses a threat to the Riverlands if not told “no”. So why didn’t Robb tell Edmure “let ‘em pass, we’re trying to bleed him dry”? Not telling Edmure meant that Tywin had a few more days to learn of Stannis’ attack on the capital and the alliance of the Tyrells, which meant that the Boltons were going to turn on Robb because they didn’t want to be on the losing side, and the Red Wedding.

Robb may have been king, but this wasn't his plan or his mistake alone. The Blackfish should have seen the folly in this, as well as the other decisions Edmure has made, making it obvious he would not simply let Tywin pass.

But I doubt the plan would have worked anyway. Tywin appeared to be aiming to retake Riverrun, not follow Robb into the west. Maybe he would have changed his mind once the plundering of the westerlands began, but Tywin knows that the Rock is safe, and probably Lannisport too. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Robb, Tywin is already negotiating the treaty with the Tyrells, so even if Edmure hadn't fought at the Stone Mill or along the river, Tywin would likely have sailed down the Blackwater anyway to avoid losing King's Landing and his royal heirs.

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23 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Robb may have been king, but this wasn't his plan or his mistake alone. The Blackfish should have seen the folly in this, as well as the other decisions Edmure has made, making it obvious he would not simply let Tywin pass.

But I doubt the plan would have worked anyway. Tywin appeared to be aiming to retake Riverrun, not follow Robb into the west. Maybe he would have changed his mind once the plundering of the westerlands began, but Tywin knows that the Rock is safe, and probably Lannisport too. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Robb, Tywin is already negotiating the treaty with the Tyrells, so even if Edmure hadn't fought at the Stone Mill or along the river, Tywin would likely have sailed down the Blackwater anyway to avoid losing King's Landing and his royal heirs.

Agreed, but would Tywin have been able to coordinate with the Tyrells AND arrive on time?

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15 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Maybe he would have changed his mind once the plundering of the westerlands began, but Tywin knows that the Rock is safe, and probably Lannisport too.

After Oxcross, the only place safe from Robb's raid was the Rock, Lannisport was a defenseless as any other places.

 

 

17 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Robb, Tywin is already negotiating the treaty with the Tyrells, so even if Edmure hadn't fought at the Stone Mill or along the river, Tywin would likely have sailed down the Blackwater anyway to avoid losing King's Landing and his royal heirs.

Tywin wasn't negotiating with the Tyrells, the roses joining the lions was all Tyrions doing,   I don't think Tywin negotiated anything during the war until Asos, the Tyrells and  the Martells joining the lions was all Tyrions doing.

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1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Tywin appeared to be aiming to retake Riverrun, not follow Robb into the west.

Why do you think so?

1 hour ago, frenin said:

After Oxcross, the only place safe from Robb's raid was the Rock, Lannisport was a defenseless as any other places.

It's known per this SSM that Lannisport has well trained City Watch.

Robb also claims otherwise (ASoS, Catelyn II).

Quote

You knew I did not have enough men to threaten Lannisport or Casterly Rock.

 

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1 hour ago, frenin said:

Tywin wasn't negotiating with the Tyrells, the roses joining the lions was all Tyrions doing,   I don't think Tywin negotiated anything during the war until Asos, the Tyrells and  the Martells joining the lions was all Tyrions doing.

Some of the credit must go to Little Finger.

If they followed Tyrion's orders alone, the envoy would be Cersei, and this would be hilarious to see how this backfire.

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2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

But I doubt the plan would have worked anyway. Tywin appeared to be aiming to retake Riverrun, not follow Robb into the west. Maybe he would have changed his mind once the plundering of the westerlands began, but Tywin knows that the Rock is safe, and probably Lannisport too. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Robb, Tywin is already negotiating the treaty with the Tyrells, so even if Edmure hadn't fought at the Stone Mill or along the river, Tywin would likely have sailed down the Blackwater anyway to avoid losing King's Landing and his royal heirs.

I don't see him going for Riverrun and putting himself in the same situation as Jaime after the battle of the camps, spliting his army in 3 while Robb and Roose can relief the siege at any time with him divided by the rivers.

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@Arthur Peres

That was a really fine summary of the situation. Well done!

I guess Robb must have sent Edmure some message by raven from which Edmure at some point, else he could not have misinterpreted him. But messages via raven or, perhaps, even via envoy are not necessarily as clear as they should be.

Not to mention that Robb is certainly pissed in part because he has essentially lost the war after Stannis' defeat at the Blackwater at the hands of a Lannister-Tyrell alliance. They are done after that.

We can doubt that Robb actually intended to draw Tywin west to prevent him from defeating Stannis and teaming up with the Tyrells. He did not foresee Renly's early death or everything that came thereafter.

And, to be sure, Robb would have been pretty much in the same shitty situation if Tywin had broken through and come west, but the Tyrells had still made a pact with King Joffrey and had taken Stannis in the rear on their own. It may have been a less impressive victory, but they would have still won, and even if Robb had defeated Tywin - which is a big if - this wouldn't have improved his overall political position.

Tywin had nothing to do with the alliance between the lion and the rose, by the way. That was arranged by Littlefinger, and Cersei's and Tyrion's behest. All Tywin contributed was his army, after his defeat at the Trident caused him to learn in time that Stannis was attacking the city. Then he also learned of the pact with the Tyrells, teamed up with them and coordinated the attack on Stannis' army.

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I still believe Robb was bullshitting, Edmure was his only way to patch things up with the Freys and he needed him in a position where he felt bad enough to do it, if Tywin returned West and destroyed Robb with his greater numbers, local support, access to supplies, castles etc then everyone would be shitting on Edmure for allowing Tywin to return West. Sure Stannis might claim King's Landing but what's that matter if your king is defeated. If anything simply assuming that Robb would be able to defeat Tywin on his own turf whilst massively outnumbered would be the irresponsible move. 

But nah, Robb's gonna play ring around the rosy with Tywin in his own lands and then destroy him, how convenient, now marry that Frey so I can retake my own lands. 

As a side note if Tywin made it to the West I don't see any reason why the Tyrells wouldn't just relieve King's Landing themselves, just because they waited for Tywin when Tywin was actually available doesn't mean they'd hold off the relief if he wasn't, if anything they'd probably relish the thought of being even more dominant in King's Landing. They didn't need Tywin, they just maximised the odds of victory by going with him, Stannis' army was mid siege... mid amphibious assault after witnessing their fleet get obliterated, their morale is breaking when the vanguard hits them in the rear no matter what, doubt the relief would even need to outnumber Stannis to do that and the Tyrells have 70,000 men regardless. 

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18 hours ago, nyser1 said:

Agreed, but would Tywin have been able to coordinate with the Tyrells AND arrive on time?

I don't see why not. Even if Tywin had won at the Stone Mill and the fords, he could have then marched to the headwaters of the Blackwater at any time. It would have been an easy choice: would he want to settle in for a long siege at Riverrun, facing an uncertain outcome, or would he want to head to King's Landing to preserve his hold on the Iron Throne and almost assuredly defeat his most serious opponent? 

18 hours ago, frenin said:

After Oxcross, the only place safe from Robb's raid was the Rock, Lannisport was a defenseless as any other places.

Tywin wasn't negotiating with the Tyrells, the roses joining the lions was all Tyrions doing,   I don't think Tywin negotiated anything during the war until Asos, the Tyrells and  the Martells joining the lions was all Tyrions doing.

Lannisport, is a big town with defenses of its own. Robb might have been able to take it (although unlikely because he no longer has the element of surprise), but it would have diminished his army by a significant amount. I believe Robb said as much, and even Balon opts to invade the north rather than take Lannisport.

I'm sure Tyrion kept Tywin fully abreast at the outreach he was making to the Tyrells. So when it came time to link up with them on the Blackwater, Tywin knew exactly where to go -- and he would have been able to do that regardless of whether Edmure had marched against him or not.

 

16 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Why do you think so?

He was attempting to cross the river within sight of Riverrun. I don't see why he would bother to do it right there where Edmure can easily repel him if his intent to was just march west anyway. And I can't imagine that Tywin is fool enough to leave such a massive castle in enemy hands that can then attack his rear, just like Stannis wasn't fool enough to march on King's Landing until Storm's End was secure.

 

17 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

I don't see him going for Riverrun and putting himself in the same situation as Jaime after the battle of the camps, spliting his army in 3 while Robb and Roose can relief the siege at any time with him divided by the rivers.

Yes, I'm not saying he was seriously considering laying siege to Riverrun, just looking to box Edmure in while the Tryells made their way to the Blackwater. One thing he would most definitely not do is march past Riverrun and leave a major military stronghold in his rear in order to chase Robb through the westerlands.

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6 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, I'm not saying he was seriously considering laying siege to Riverrun, just looking to box Edmure in while the Tryells made their way to the Blackwater. One thing he would most definitely not do is march past Riverrun and leave a major military stronghold in his rear in order to chase Robb through the westerlands.

If this was his intention, he would not have backed out and retreat when he got the knews that the Tyrells were going for the city. He would stay and hold his ground.

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On 10/30/2019 at 11:13 PM, TsarGrey said:

Why do you think so?

It's known per this SSM that Lannisport has well trained City Watch.

Robb also claims otherwise (ASoS, Catelyn II).

 

True enough, we didn't remember.

 

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm sure Tyrion kept Tywin fully abreast at the outreach he was making to the Tyrells. So when it came time to link up with them on the Blackwater, Tywin knew exactly where to go -- and he would have been able to do that regardless of whether Edmure had marched against him or not.

 

Tywin only learnt about the deal when he was informed at the field, Tyrion said or thought nothing about informing his father iirc, Tywin was informed when the city was actually about to fall and the Tyrell deal was done.

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22 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

If this was his intention, he would not have backed out and retreat when he got the knews that the Tyrells were going for the city. He would stay and hold his ground.

I'm not sure I follow. Which intention are you talking about: to chase Robb into the westerlands, to stay at Riverrun or to head to King's Landing? If it's the first two, then I agree that neither was his intention at any time. In the third instance, he pulled back when he got the news that the Tyrell alliance was a go and that they would meet him at the headwaters of the Blackwater. The Tyrells didn't head for King's Landing until after they met with Tywin, after Tywin had pulled back from Riverrun.

8 hours ago, frenin said:

Tywin only learnt about the deal when he was informed at the field, Tyrion said or thought nothing about informing his father iirc, Tywin was informed when the city was actually about to fall and the Tyrell deal was done.

Tywin didn't know about the Tyrell alliance until King's Landing was about to fall? This would be after he linked up with the Tyrells, sailed with them down the Blackwater and they both attacked Stannis together? I don't see how you figure that.

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