Why did Robb keep Edmure in the dark about his plan?

[Arthur Peres]

44 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm not sure I follow. Which intention are you talking about: to chase Robb into the westerlands, to stay at Riverrun or to head to King's Landing? If it's the first two, then I agree that neither was his intention at any time. In the third instance, he pulled back when he got the news that the Tyrell alliance was a go and that they would meet him at the headwaters of the Blackwater. The Tyrells didn't head for King's Landing until after they met with Tywin, after Tywin had pulled back from Riverrun.

9 hours ago, frenin said:

Sorry english is not my first language. Sometimes I messed it up. I will try to clarify myself.

What I mean is: Tywin was following Robb to his trap. I do belive that Tywin was being once again fooled by Robb. The reasons being:

Tywin didn't intent to siege Edmure or to box him in Riverrun, Tywin is dividing his troops to go back west, loking for a weak point  to cross his army as Brienne tell us.

Quote

“That was the brush of Lord Tywin’s fingertip, my lady,” the girl said. “He is probing, feeling for a weak point, an undefended crossing. If he does not find one, he will curl all his fingers into a fist and try and make one.” Brienne hunched her shoulders. “That’s what I’d do. Were I him.” 

 

[Ivan Tsarevich]

21 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

He was attempting to cross the river within sight of Riverrun. I don't see why he would bother to do it right there where Edmure can easily repel him if his intent to was just march west anyway. And I can't imagine that Tywin is fool enough to leave such a massive castle in enemy hands that can then attack his rear, just like Stannis wasn't fool enough to march on King's Landing until Storm's End was secure.

Thanks for humoring my curiosity.

However, Tywin has to cross the Red Fork if he means to gain access to the River Road passing through the Western hills and the pass beneath the Golden Tooth. This route is closer than the Goldroad and potentially allows him to cut Robb away from Riverlands.

Nor is he trying to merely cross the river within sight of Riverrun; two of the probes indeed occur where Cat can see them

Quote

The Lannisters had ridden out of the southeast beneath a blaze of banners, Ser Desmond told her when she ascended to the battlements to join him. "A few outriders, no more," he assured her. "The main strength of Lord Tywin's host is well to the south. We are in no danger here."

South of the Red Fork the land stretched away open and flat. From the watchtower Catelyn could see for miles. Even so, only the nearest ford was visible. Edmure had entrusted Lord Jason Mallister with its defense, as well as that of three others farther upriver. The Lannister riders were milling about uncertainly near the water, crimson and silver banners flapping in the wind. "No more than fifty, my lady," Ser Desmond estimated.

Catelyn watched the riders spread out in a long line. Lord Jason's men waited to receive them behind rocks and grass and hillocks. A trumpet blast sent the horsemen forward at a ponderous walk, splashing down into the current. For a moment they made a brave show, all bright armor and streaming banners, the sun flashing off the points of their lances.

Quote

That night they came again. She had commanded them to wake her at once if the enemy returned, and well after midnight a serving girl touched her gently by the shoulder. Catelyn sat up at once. "What is it?"

"The ford again, my lady."

Wrapped in a bedrobe, Catelyn climbed to the roof of the keep. From there she could see over the walls and the moonlit river to where the battle raged. The defenders had built watchfires along the bank, and perhaps the Lannisters thought to find them night-blind or unwary. If so, it was folly. Darkness was a chancy ally at best. As they waded in to breast their way across, men stepped in hidden pools and went down splashing, while others stumbled over stones or gashed their feet on the hidden caltrops. The Mallister bowmen sent a storm of fire arrows hissing across the river, strangely beautiful from afar. One man, pierced through a dozen times, his clothes afire, danced and whirled in the knee-deep water until at last he fell and was swept downstream. By the time his body came bobbing past Riverrun, the fires and his life had both been extinguished.

but Tywin's main strength is further south, where there is more fighting

Quote

Not long after, a rider with the Mallister eagle sewn on his breast arrived with a message from Lord Jason, telling of another skirmish and another victory. Ser Flement Brax had tried to force a crossing at a different ford six leagues to the south. This time the Lannisters shortened their lances and advanced across the river behind on foot, but the Mallister bowmen had rained high arcing shots down over their shields, while the scorpions Edmure had mounted on the riverbank sent heavy stones crashing through to break up the formation. "They left a dozen dead in the water, only two reaching the shallows, where we dealt with them briskly," the rider reported. He also told of fighting farther upstream, where Lord Karyl Vance held the fords. "Those thrusts too were turned aside, at grievous cost to our foes."

and the severest attempt happens at a dozen different fords not within their sight

Quote

It was three days later when the hammer blow that Brienne had foretold fell, and five days before they heard of it. Catelyn was sitting with her father when Edmure's messenger arrived. The man's armor was dinted, his boots dusty, and he had a ragged hole in his surcoat, but the look on his face as he knelt was enough to tell her that the news was good. "Victory, my lady." He handed her Edmure's letter. Her hand trembled as she broke the seal.

Lord Tywin had tried to force a crossing at a dozen different fords, her brother wrote, but every thrust had been thrown back. Lord Lefford had been drowned, the Crakehall knight called Strongboar taken captive, Ser Addam Marbrand thrice forced to retreat . . . but the fiercest battle had been fought at Stone Mill, where Ser Gregor Clegane had led the assault. So many of his men had fallen that their dead horses threatened to dam the flow. In the end the Mountain and a handful of his best had gained the west bank, but Edmure had thrown his reserve at them, and they had shattered and reeled away bloody and beaten. Ser Gregor himself had lost his horse and staggered back across the Red Fork bleeding from a dozen wounds while a rain of arrows and stones fell all around him. "They shall not cross, Cat," Edmure scrawled, "Lord Tywin is marching to the southeast. A feint perhaps, or full retreat, it matters not. They shall not cross."

and while we should account in the time needed for this fighting to take place, it takes two days for Cat to get the news of this (ACoK, Catelyn VI). That's at least thirteen different fords, most of them upriver.

Nor do I consider the Riverrun to be so threatening to Tywin. Its not that large, garrison of 200 is too much (AFfC, Jaime VII),

Quote

"You have a garrison of two hundred." Too large a garrison, in truth, but Lord Emmon had an anxious disposition.

and if Tywin gains access to Westerlands, he has the Golden Tooth and and the hills between them in any case. You can argue that the goat track Grey Wind found renders these obsolete, of course... yet they still exist and have to be manoeuvred, even if we assume that knowledge of that track is available to Edmure.

By the way, can anyone to teach me how to make closed quote?

[frenin]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Tywin didn't know about the Tyrell alliance until King's Landing was about to fall? This would be after he linked up with the Tyrells, sailed with them down the Blackwater and they both attacked Stannis together? I don't see how you figure that.

Yes, Tywin didn't know until he was actually losing on the Fords.

[John Suburbs]

On 11/1/2019 at 12:06 PM, Arthur Peres said:

Sorry english is not my first language. Sometimes I messed it up. I will try to clarify myself.

What I mean is: Tywin was following Robb to his trap. I do belive that Tywin was being once again fooled by Robb. The reasons being:

Tywin didn't intent to siege Edmure or to box him in Riverrun, Tywin is dividing his troops to go back west, loking for a weak point  to cross his army as Brienne tell us.

 

I was somewhat unclear on my initial posts as well when I said Tywin was attacking Riverrun rather than following Robb into the west, so I'll try to clarify as well.

Tywin is targeting Riverrun at this point, but not to try and take the castle or lay siege to it. By the time of the Stone Mill and the fords, Tywin has the Tyrell alliance to fall back on, something that Brienne (or Robb) is unaware of. So he has some time to do a little probing around Riverrun, hopefully scoring a victory against Edmure and maybe even taking him or some other knights hostage, before sailing downriver and dealing with Stannis. This also has the advantage of luring Stannis into thinking that Tywin is still way north in the Riverlands when in fact he is bearing down on King's Landing.

But even if the Tyrell option was not available, Tywin is certainly not fool enough to chase Robb into the Westerlands and leave a stronghold like Riverrun in the hands of the enemy. All that would do is put an army at his back while he is chasing the one to his front. But even his presence at Riverrun would have been unlikely at this point because once Storm's End had fallen and Stannis had a significant army at his back, Tywin would have immediately marched to the defense of KL rather than let the city fall and his royal grandchildren be executed.

So no matter what Robb or his lords knew or did not know about Tywin and the Tyrells, there is no way the should have expected Tywin to follow them into the west while leaving Riverrun to Edmure and letting Stannis take King's Landing. It was a bad plan that would not have worked regardless of whether Edmure took the field or not.

 

[John Suburbs]

On 11/1/2019 at 12:08 PM, TsarGrey said:

Thanks for humoring my curiosity.

However, Tywin has to cross the Red Fork if he means to gain access to the River Road passing through the Western hills and the pass beneath the Golden Tooth. This route is closer than the Goldroad and potentially allows him to cut Robb away from Riverlands.

Nor is he trying to merely cross the river within sight of Riverrun; two of the probes indeed occur where Cat can see them

but Tywin's main strength is further south, where there is more fighting

and the severest attempt happens at a dozen different fords not within their sight

and while we should account in the time needed for this fighting to take place, it takes two days for Cat to get the news of this (ACoK, Catelyn VI). That's at least thirteen different fords, most of them upriver.

Nor do I consider the Riverrun to be so threatening to Tywin. Its not that large, garrison of 200 is too much (AFfC, Jaime VII),

and if Tywin gains access to Westerlands, he has the Golden Tooth and and the hills between them in any case. You can argue that the goat track Grey Wind found renders these obsolete, of course... yet they still exist and have to be manoeuvred, even if we assume that knowledge of that track is available to Edmure.

By the way, can anyone to teach me how to make closed quote?

Six leagues is only 18 miles. That's not far at all. On the map, that's barely outside the little diamond that represents Riverrun. Tywin has come all the way from Harrenhal, which is a good deal south of Riverrun and is approximately the same latitude as the Golden Tooth. If he truly wanted to cross the Red Fork and reconnoiter with his troops at the GT, he could have marched due west and crossed where the river is thinner and shallower and the fords are more numerous, or even veered south slightly and crossed at Pinkmaiden, which has already been sacked and burned by Lannister forces.

Instead, he choose to veer north and attempt to cross where the river is higher, faster and close to the most formidable enemy-held castle in the region. Why?

The answer is apparent if you look at the situation through Tywin's eyes. By this time, the Tyrell alliance is in place. If not, Tywin would not even be in the Riverlands; he would be rushing to King's Landing as fast as he can to prevent the city from falling and his royal grandchildren (aka, Tywin's hold on the Iron Throne) from being executed. But even still, why would he bother with Riverrun when he knows the Tyrells will be here soon to ferry his army down the Blackwater? Two reasons:

 -- First, there is always a chance that Edmure will make yet another blunder and wind up a hostage again. Or at the very least, some of his lords and knights might be taken captive.

 -- Secondly, he can't very well sit at the top of the Blackwater and do nothing while armies are on the march against him. That would look suspicious. Instead, he makes a couple of feints around Riverrun so Stannis receives reports that Tywin is engaging in battles way to the north. That gives Stannis the green light to march on KL, and before his scouts can report what Tywin and Mace are really up to, the Lannister/Tyrells are spreading Stannis' ass cheeks 500 leagues south of where they are supposed to be.

However many men Edmure has garrisoned at Riverrun, he is still able to gather enough of a force to repel Tywin's feints, even the major one at the Stone Mill. A castle in enemy hands is a rallying point for men and materials. If Stannis marched west in pursuit of Robb and left Edmure holding Riverrun, there is every reason to expect that Edmure will be able to marshall a significant fighting force in a short time -- not the 20k that Tywin has maybe, or even the 12k with Robb, but 2k, 3k, maybe 5k; enough to do significant damage to his baggage train and cause him to put more troops in at his back rather then on the front lines facing Robb.

Tywin is not that stupid. He is not going to go chasing Robb while Stannis executes his family and installs himself as King of the Iron Throne, and he is not going to go chasing Robb while leaving a stronghold like Riverrun in enemy hands.

[John Suburbs]

On 11/1/2019 at 1:37 PM, frenin said:

Yes, Tywin didn't know until he was actually losing on the Fords.

Where does it say that?

You don't think that if Tywin didn't have a quick way to get to King's Landing, then he would have marched his army there in double-time the moment he heard that Storm's End had fallen? After all we've seen of Tywin, he could care less that his royal grandchildren, who represent his hold on the Iron Throne, are about to be executed and the man who he considers to be his most significant rival now sits the Iron Throne?

[Arthur Peres]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

 Tywin is targeting Riverrun at this point, but not to try and take the castle or lay siege to it. By the time of the Stone Mill and the fords, Tywin has the Tyrell alliance to fall back on, something that Brienne (or Robb) is unaware of. So he has some time to do a little probing around Riverrun, hopefully scoring a victory against Edmure and maybe even taking him or some other knights hostage, before sailing downriver and dealing with Stannis. This also has the advantage of luring Stannis into thinking that Tywin is still way north in the Riverlands when in fact he is bearing down on King's Landing.

 

I don't belive this makes much sense. He is attacking a fortified position, crossing a river in a huge disavantage, were he is losing more man than the enemy. It does not make much sense for him to waste resources.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

 But even if the Tyrell option was not available, Tywin is certainly not fool enough to chase Robb into the Westerlands and leave a stronghold like Riverrun in the hands of the enemy. All that would do is put an army at his back while he is chasing the one to his front. But even his presence at Riverrun would have been unlikely at this point because once Storm's End had fallen and Stannis had a significant army at his back, Tywin would have immediately marched to the defense of KL rather than let the city fall and his royal grandchildren be executed.

 

If he rear was exposed sure I would agree with you, but once in the Golden Tooth his rear is guarded and secure.

Tywin didn't know about Storm's End falling, he was counting on it holding long enough for him to deal with Robb, before moving against Stannis. Once he gets the knews he retreat back to save KL.

I agree that even if he wasn't present the Tyrells would do the work, but If Robb beats Tywin in the West while the Tyrells saves the city, what are the repercutions moving foward?

[The Young Maester]

35 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

I agree that even if he wasn't present the Tyrells would do the work, but If Robb beats Tywin in the West while the Tyrells saves the city, what are the repercutions moving foward?

A prolonged war. 
Tyrells takeover in kings landing. They would become the most influential house at court with Tywin and Kevan trapped in the west. Cersei would scheme, and try to harm the Tyrells (like she is currently doing). Tyrion would likely remain hand of the king. But I don’t know how much influence the Lannister’s would be able to keep in kings landing with the Tyrells there.
Basically Cersei and Tyrion will have a go at each other whilst the Tyrells look on with joy. 

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

I don't belive this makes much sense. He is attacking a fortified position, crossing a river in a huge disavantage, were he is losing more man than the enemy. It does not make much sense for him to waste resources.

 

If he rear was exposed sure I would agree with you, but once in the Golden Tooth his rear is guarded and secure.

Tywin didn't know about Storm's End falling, he was counting on it holding long enough for him to deal with Robb, before moving against Stannis. Once he gets the knews he retreat back to save KL.

I agree that even if he wasn't present the Tyrells would do the work, but If Robb beats Tywin in the West while the Tyrells saves the city, what are the repercutions moving foward?

Well, he is not really attacking a fortified position, which would be Riverrun. He is supposedly trying to cross the river. And since this is to trick Stannis into believing that Tywin is hundreds of miles to his north, it's not a waste of resources but a tactical use of those resources. Remember, this is not Tywin's main force, but just "the brush of Lord Tywin's fingertip." Even the main battle at Stone Mill was only a token force, or else Edmure would have been slaughtered. This was all a feint, just like Bolton was at the Green Fork. The men that Robb lost there were not "wasted resources" because it allowed him to retake Riverrun.

And as I mentioned above, why would Tywin decide to veer way to the north to try and ford the Red Fork within a stone's throw of Riverrun, where the river is fast and deep, rather then just continue due west to the GT and cross where it is shallower and less defended? Pinkmaiden has already fallen, so there should be no trouble there. Answer: to trick Stannis into thinking he is clear to attack King's Landing.

Sure, Tywin would gain some protection once he was back in the Westerlands, but every man he has to devote protecting his rear is a man he does not have to confront Robb in his front. And the more men Edmure manages to raise, the more of a threat he poses to the rear and the more Tywin has to shift his troops away from the front to deal with them. And if Edmure were to somehow take the GT, now Tywin is in big trouble. So in the end, it was a simple decision for Tywin: either march west to an uncertain outcome, or sail back to KL for a certain victory and the rescue of his family.

I can't imagine that Tywin did not know about Storm's End in relatively short order. This, after all, is what opened up the possibility of an alliance with the Tyrells, and it is inconceivable that Tywin was not aware of those discussions. Sure, he was counting on holding it for a while, but once it fell, his priorities shifted from the riverlands to King's Landing. If he was not certain of a quick ride down the Blackwater, then he would have turned his army to the capital as soon as he heard about Storm's End, and that was long before the Stone Mill and the fords.

I'm not sure what you're getting at in your last question. Are we assuming that there is an Lannister/Tyrell alliance? If so, and Tywin loses to Robb, then Tywin is dead and the Tyrells have several options: they could take King's Landing as liberators and marry Margaery to Joffrey; they could take KL as conquerors, execute all the Lannisters and declare themselves king; they could march with Tywin to defeat the northmen, then take King's Landing (probably the worst option, though); or they could do the smartest thing: ferry Tywin's army to the capital to defeat the immediate threat and leave Robb for later, which is what they did.

 

[Ivan Tsarevich]

23 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Six leagues is only 18 miles. That's not far at all. On the map, that's barely outside the little diamond that represents Riverrun.

Nor is it the farthest point of fighting (see attacks against Vance), it's at least fourth closest, if not 3rd or 2nd. There are from 9 to 11 more fords above that which see action for certain, and possibly more.

23 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Tywin has come all the way from Harrenhal, which is a good deal south of Riverrun and is approximately the same latitude as the Golden Tooth.

Harrenhal is more to north than the Tooth. I might actually argue that the north-south distance (by the eye on the maps of my paperback copies) is greater than the one between Harrenhal and Riverrun. Same does not seem to hold true with the maps on the wiki, though. In those the distance (from Harrenhal to the Tooth) seems to be less or at best about the same (than from Harrenhal to Riverrun).

23 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If he truly wanted to cross the Red Fork and reconnoiter with his troops at the GT, he could have marched due west and crossed where the river is thinner and shallower and the fords are more numerous, or even veered south slightly and crossed at Pinkmaiden, which has already been sacked and burned by Lannister forces.

Do show the existence of these supposed crossings, please. The wiki page about Pinkmaiden seems to make no mention of the ford or bridge. Also, are you ignoring the River Road as a meaningful target?

Secondly, if there are more crossings available to Tywin, they should also be within Edmure's reach.

23 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Instead, he choose to veer north and attempt to cross where the river is higher, faster and close to the most formidable enemy-held castle in the region. Why?

River Road and known fords. And where does it say that Red Fork runs fast there?

23 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The answer is apparent if you look at the situation through Tywin's eyes. By this time, the Tyrell alliance is in place. If not, Tywin would not even be in the Riverlands; he would be rushing to King's Landing as fast as he can to prevent the city from falling and his royal grandchildren (aka, Tywin's hold on the Iron Throne) from being executed. But even still, why would he bother with Riverrun when he knows the Tyrells will be here soon to ferry his army down the Blackwater? Two reasons:

 -- First, there is always a chance that Edmure will make yet another blunder and wind up a hostage again. Or at the very least, some of his lords and knights might be taken captive.

 -- Secondly, he can't very well sit at the top of the Blackwater and do nothing while armies are on the march against him. That would look suspicious. Instead, he makes a couple of feints around Riverrun so Stannis receives reports that Tywin is engaging in battles way to the north. That gives Stannis the green light to march on KL, and before his scouts can report what Tywin and Mace are really up to, the Lannister/Tyrells are spreading Stannis' ass cheeks 500 leagues south of where they are supposed to be.

When I look the situation from Tywin's vantage, I see a picture quite different than the one you paint.

Tywin departs Harrenhal in ACoK, Arya VIII.

Confusion and clangor ruled the castle. Men stood on the beds of wagons loading casks of wine, sacks of flour, and bundles of new-fletched arrows. Smiths straightened swords, knocked dents from breastplates, and shoed destriers and pack mules alike. Mail shirts were tossed in barrels of sand and rolled across the lumpy surface of the Flowstone Yard to scour them clean. Weese's women had twenty cloaks to mend, a hundred more to wash. The high and humble crowded into the sept together to pray. Outside the walls, tents and pavilions were coming down. Squires tossed pails of water over cookfires, while soldiers took out their oilstones to give their blades one last good lick. The noise was a swelling tide: horses blowing and whickering, lords shouting commands, men-at-arms trading curses, camp followers squabbling.

Lord Tywin Lannister was marching at last.

At this point, he has news from Oxcross. Arya knows, therefore Tywin has to know.

They were going to fight Robb, she knew. Listening to the talk as she went about her work, Arya had learned that Robb had won some great victory in the west. He'd burned Lannisport, some said, or else he meant to burn it. He'd captured Casterly Rock and put everyone to the sword, or he was besieging the Golden Tooth . . . but something had happened, that much was certain.

What I do not know is whether he knows of the death of Renly or the defiance of Storm's End. It is certainly possible he does (small council does know in previous chapter in King's Landing, Tyrion VIII, and Riverrun knows in the next, Catelyn V), but I cannot state that he knows for certain. It's merely likely.

I have not seen your claim that Tywin is aware of the negotiations with Tyrells supported anywhere I remember. And while absence of evidence is no evidence of absence, I currently see no reason to believe that Tywin indeed is in the loop.

So why does Tywin march, in my view? To go to west. That is, in my eyes, his only reason to possibly leave Harrenhal. There are several reasons to do so: to defeat an enemy of note, to protect the assets and families of his bannermen (which, unlike some of his own, are evidently not safe), to gather what reinforcements are left, and maybe more.

As for the threat to King's Landing by Stannis; in case Tywin knows of Penrose's continuing defiance, there is hope that Stannis has his hands full for while. In case he does not, this goes unexplained. Tywin is still marching.

You also assume that Stannis receives reports from the Riverlands or the northern borders of the Reach. I question this, unless you mean Melisandre, whom he does not take to Blackwater.

ETA: Realized that Melisandre can still report of Tywin's movements to Stannis as long as they are both around Storm's End - if she sees visions of those.

23 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

However many men Edmure has garrisoned at Riverrun, he is still able to gather enough of a force to repel Tywin's feints, even the major one at the Stone Mill. A castle in enemy hands is a rallying point for men and materials. If Stannis marched west in pursuit of Robb and left Edmure holding Riverrun, there is every reason to expect that Edmure will be able to marshall a significant fighting force in a short time -- not the 20k that Tywin has maybe, or even the 12k with Robb, but 2k, 3k, maybe 5k; enough to do significant damage to his baggage train and cause him to put more troops in at his back rather then on the front lines facing Robb.

Tywin is not that stupid. He is not going to go chasing Robb while Stannis executes his family and installs himself as King of the Iron Throne, and he is not going to go chasing Robb while leaving a stronghold like Riverrun in enemy hands.

It has dawned to me during this discussion that the northern route to Westerlands, the River Road, is actually safer to Tywin than the southern one, the Goldroad. If Tywin does not know of Renly's death when deciding to march, he would, from his point of view, open himself to attack from Renly. If he does, marching through the northern parts of the Reach could still provoke the Tyrells.

On comparison, his northern enemies, Robb, Edmure and Roose, are fewer in men and more dispersed. Edmure calls his men back supposedly in reaction to Tywin marching on him. They were dispersed before that due Tywin himself unleashing chevauchée upon their holdings.

For numbers; Edmure expects to gather 11k. ACoK, Catelyn V.

"When all my strength is marshaled, I should have eight thousand foot and three thousand horse," Edmure said.

I operate on the basis of Robb having 6k with him at west. If you know his numbers, please do enlighten me.

[John Suburbs]

3 minutes ago, TsarGrey said:

Nor is it the farthest point of fighting (see attacks against Vance), it's at least fourth closest, if not 3rd or 2nd. There are from 9 to 11 more fords above that which see action for certain, and possibly more.

Harrenhal is more to north than the Tooth. I might actually argue that the north-south distance (by the eye on the maps of my paperback copies) is greater than the one between Harrenhal and Riverrun. Same does not seem to hold true with the maps on the wiki, though. In those the distance (from Harrenhal to the Tooth) seems to be less or at best about the same (than from Harrenhal to Riverrun).

Do show the existence of these supposed crossings, please. The wiki page about Pinkmaiden seems to make no mention of the ford or bridge. Also, are you ignoring the River Road as a meaningful target?

Secondly, if there are more crossings available to Tywin, they should also be within Edmure's reach.

River Road and known fords. And where does it say that Red Fork fast there?

When I look the situation from Tywin's vantage, I see a picture quite different than the one you paint.

Tywin departs Harrenhal in ACoK, Arya VIII.

Confusion and clangor ruled the castle. Men stood on the beds of wagons loading casks of wine, sacks of flour, and bundles of new-fletched arrows. Smiths straightened swords, knocked dents from breastplates, and shoed destriers and pack mules alike. Mail shirts were tossed in barrels of sand and rolled across the lumpy surface of the Flowstone Yard to scour them clean. Weese's women had twenty cloaks to mend, a hundred more to wash. The high and humble crowded into the sept together to pray. Outside the walls, tents and pavilions were coming down. Squires tossed pails of water over cookfires, while soldiers took out their oilstones to give their blades one last good lick. The noise was a swelling tide: horses blowing and whickering, lords shouting commands, men-at-arms trading curses, camp followers squabbling.

Lord Tywin Lannister was marching at last.

At this point, he has news from Oxcross. Arya knows, therefore Tywin has to know.

They were going to fight Robb, she knew. Listening to the talk as she went about her work, Arya had learned that Robb had won some great victory in the west. He'd burned Lannisport, some said, or else he meant to burn it. He'd captured Casterly Rock and put everyone to the sword, or he was besieging the Golden Tooth . . . but something had happened, that much was certain.

What I do not know is whether he knows of the death of Renly or the defiance of Storm's End. It is certainly possible he does (small council does know in previous chapter in King's Landing, Tyrion VIII, and Riverrun knows in the next, Catelyn V), but I cannot state that he knows for certain. It's merely likely.

I have not seen your claim that Tywin is aware of the negotiations with Tyrells supported anywhere I remember. And while absence of evidence is no evidence of absence, I currently see no reason to believe that Tywin indeed is in the loop.

So why does Tywin march, in my view? To go to west. That is, in my eyes, his only reason to possibly leave Harrenhal. There are several reasons to do so: to defeat an enemy of note, to protect the assets and families of his bannermen (which, unlike some of his own, are evidently not safe), to gather what reinforcements are left, and maybe more.

As for threat to King's Landing by Stannis; in case Tywin knows of the Penrose's continuing defiance, there is hope that Stannis has his hands full for while. In case he does not, this goes unexplained. Tywin is still marching.

You also assume Stannis receives reports from the Riverlands or the northern borders of the Reach. I question this, unless you mean Melisandre, whom he does not take to Blackwater.

It has dawned to me during this discussion that the northern route to Westerlands, the River Road, is actually safer to Tywin than the southern one, the Goldroad. If Tywin does not know of Renly's death when deciding to march, he would, from his point of view, open himself to attack from Renly. If he does, marching through the northern parts of the Reach could still provoke the Tyrells.

On comparison, his northern enemies, Robb, Edmure and Roose, are fewer in men and more dispersed. Edmure calls his men back supposedly in reaction to Tywin marching on him. They were dispersed before that due Tywin himself unleashing chevauchée upon their holdings.

For numbers; Edmure expects to gather 11k. ACoK, Catelyn V.

"When all my strength is marshaled, I should have eight thousand foot and three thousand horse," Edmure said.

I operate on the basis of Robb having 6k with him at west. If you know his numbers, please do enlighten me.

All of these are way, way north of where Tywin should be if his intent is to follow Robb west. The river is lower, slower and less defended hundreds of miles to the south, which would be a mostly straight line from Harrenhall to the GT.

Get the map collection; it's far more detailed than the sketches in the books. Yes, Harrenhall is slightly north of the GT, but Riverrun is way north, probably 50 leagues or more. So again, it makes no sense for Tywin to go north only to attempt a more difficult crossing close to the most heavily fortified castle in the region when he could just continue straight to his own fortified position.

The Red Fork starts in the hills south of the GT and gains strength as it heads north to Riverrun. The farther south Tywin attempts to cross, the thinner and shallower the river will be. All rivers are like this: small streams at their source, miles wide where they dump into the ocean.

The River Road is great, but he doesn't need to get anywhere near Riverrun in order to reach it. Even a hundred miles south would make an easier crossing, with far less resistance, and the road is just a few klicks beyond that. You might as well ask why Tywin did not march due north from Harrenhal to pick up the River Road at Lord Harroway's Town.

Sure, Tywin took the field after Oxcross, and his intent at that time probably was to confront Robb. By the time of the Stone Mill and Fords, however, Storm's End had fallen, Stannis was marching on the capital, and the Tyrell alliance was in hand. At this point, everything points to Tywin making a feint at Riverrun to keep Stannis from learning that his true objective was King's Landing. It's the exact same gambit that Robb used on the Green Fork to keep Tywin from guessing his objective was Riverrun.

Of course Tywin is in the loop. You think Tyrion is going to commit Tywin to an alliance and marry his grandson the king and not inform Tywin? LF does not leave on his mission until the next day and Tyrion would be a fool not to send a rider to Tywin within the hour. By the time Littlefinger even made it to Bitterbridge with his 300 men-at-arms and 40 knights, a single rider can easily make it to Tywin's army that has just set out from Harrenhall -- even faster if he sends a raven to HH first and then a rider from there. Plus, after Bitterbridge, LF has to go all the way to Highgarden to finalize the deal. It is inconceivable that all of this was sprung on Tywin in a message months later telling him out of the blue to meet Mace at the Blackwater.

There is no hope that Stannis will have his hands full after Storm's End. Full of what? Now that Renly is dead and Stannis has a good chunk of the Tyrell army (which happened some time before), the only resistance Stannis faced was Storm's End. This is why Tyrion was so distressed about Ser Cortnay's death; he was counting on Storm's End to delay Stannis' march until Tywin had dealt with Robb. But all of this is changed by the time Tywin nears Riverrun, and again, it is inconceivable that Tywin is completely unaware of any of this.

Of course Stannis receives reports as to what the other armies are doing and what battles are being fought and where. How big of a fool do you think he is?

I never said Tywin should have taken the Golden Road. That is way far to the south. There are other roads in Westeros that are not on the map, however. Lots of them.

Robb had roughly 6k at Oxcross. I don't know how many returned with him to Riverrun, but if Edmure is talking about 11k, that would pose a significant complication for Tywin.

[Nittanian]

SSM 1999

Quote

Tyrion reflected that his father should have been able to defeat Robb in the west before Stannis could have taken Storm's End. Wasn't this move a great risk though, since Stannis could have abandoned Storm's End at any time, in order to strike against King's Landing and the Lannister claimants to the throne while Tywin was occupied in the west?

Storm's End is a hugely formidable castle, and should have been able to hold out much longer, as it did during Robert's Rebellion when Stannis was inside rather than outside. And both Tyrion and Tywin knew that Stannis was a methodical commander rather than a daring one, and therefore would be unlikely to leave an enemy stronghold untaken in his rear. There was also the psychological aspect, as Stannis himself explains to Davos; he could not risk being seen as having suffered a "defeat," however minor.

Was Lord Tywin marching west a huge risk? Of course it was. That was why he sat at Harrenhal for so long, hoping to lure Robb into attacking him... or Stannis into committing against King's Landing. Neither of his foes would play into his hands, however. At which point he made a calculated gamble.

In a three-sided struggle (four sided when Renly was still in the game), any decisive move is a risk... as I learned in high school playing... yes... RISK! But the only way to win is to take some of this risks.

SSM 2001

Quote

That one is from me personally (it is a bit of burning issue for me because it debunked my favourite theory ;)), but - was Tywin really obligingly marching into Robb's trap when Edmure stopped him at the Red Fork? Did he really count on Lorch and Hoat with their IIRC 300 men holding Harrenhal and the northern prisoners in his absence?

Harrenhal is an immensely strong castle, and a garrison of three hundred is quite sizeable in medieval terms. Ser Amory =should= have been able to hold it. Lord Tywin likely thought that Roose Bolton might descend on the castle and besiege it, in which case Lorch could likely have held out for half a year or longer. The wild card here was Vargo Hoat changing sides.

 

[Ivan Tsarevich]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

All of these are way, way north of where Tywin should be if his intent is to follow Robb west. The river is lower, slower and less defended hundreds of miles to the south, which would be a mostly straight line from Harrenhall to the GT.

Get the map collection; it's far more detailed than the sketches in the books. Yes, Harrenhall is slightly north of the GT, but Riverrun is way north, probably 50 leagues or more. So again, it makes no sense for Tywin to go north only to attempt a more difficult crossing close to the most heavily fortified castle in the region when he could just continue straight to his own fortified position.

The Red Fork starts in the hills south of the GT and gains strength as it heads north to Riverrun. The farther south Tywin attempts to cross, the thinner and shallower the river will be. All rivers are like this: small streams at their source, miles wide where they dump into the ocean.

Sure, the rivers grow downstream. That alone does not mean that there are crossings available on the south. I already questioned above your claim that the river is slower upstream. It also starts from the Western mountains; even if the river grows lower and thinner, it's logical to expect the ground to become higher, rockier and harder to traverse.

Is the map collection good?

ETA: Seems like I did not, actually, previously question the strength of Red Fork's flow upriver. Still, the point is now written.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The River Road is great, but he doesn't need to get anywhere near Riverrun in order to reach it. Even a hundred miles south would make an easier crossing, with far less resistance, and the road is just a few klicks beyond that. You might as well ask why Tywin did not march due north from Harrenhal to pick up the River Road at Lord Harroway's Town.

Fair point about Tywin not, as far as I know, making use to River Road sooner.

You ignore my point of Edmure being just as capable to reach those crossings than Tywin is.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sure, Tywin took the field after Oxcross, and his intent at that time probably was to confront Robb. By the time of the Stone Mill and Fords, however, Storm's End had fallen, Stannis was marching on the capital, and the Tyrell alliance was in hand. At this point, everything points to Tywin making a feint at Riverrun to keep Stannis from learning that his true objective was King's Landing. It's the exact same gambit that Robb used on the Green Fork to keep Tywin from guessing his objective was Riverrun.

So we agree on Tywin's intent in the time of marching.

All the facts you list (Storm's End fallen, Stannis marching to KL, alliance about to happen) hold true and I agree with them. And while I still do not swallow Tywin's knowledge of Tyrell alliance without biting first, your interpretation of the events seems palatable in light of it.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Of course Tywin is in the loop. You think Tyrion is going to commit Tywin to an alliance and marry his grandson the king and not inform Tywin? LF does not leave on his mission until the next day and Tyrion would be a fool not to send a rider to Tywin within the hour. By the time Littlefinger even made it to Bitterbridge with his 300 men-at-arms and 40 knights, a single rider can easily make it to Tywin's army that has just set out from Harrenhall -- even faster if he sends a raven to HH first and then a rider from there.

I sure believe he would do so without consulting Tywin. He does that. He also does send Myrcella to Dorne, and does not appear overly concerned with his father's wishes otherwise either. And for what its worth, he was sent to court to rule. AGoT, Tyrion IX.

"King's Landing. I am sending you to court."

It was the last thing Tyrion Lannister would ever have anticipated. He reached for his wine, and considered for a moment as he sipped. "And what am I to do there?"

"Rule," his father said curtly.

Informing Tywin of such a move would be logical, I agree. That does not mean it happens.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Plus, after Bitterbridge, LF has to go all the way to Highgarden to finalize the deal. It is inconceivable that all of this was sprung on Tywin in a message months later telling him out of the blue to meet Mace at the Blackwater.

I find such an instance to be not inconceivable at all.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

There is no hope that Stannis will have his hands full after Storm's End. Full of what? Now that Renly is dead and Stannis has a good chunk of the Tyrell army (which happened some time before), the only resistance Stannis faced was Storm's End. This is why Tyrion was so distressed about Ser Cortnay's death; he was counting on Storm's End to delay Stannis' march until Tywin had dealt with Robb.

Full of the ongoing siege of Storm's End. Not after it. You and @Nittanian kind of articulate my case for me.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

But all of this is changed by the time Tywin nears Riverrun, and again, it is inconceivable that Tywin is completely unaware of any of this.

Not to me. While you repeatedly state that Tywin is in the know, I have not seen reason to believe it. By default, he does not know of the negotiations with Tyrells or the fall of Storm's End. He has to be told. Has he been? When, where and who? Why not the Tyrell riders during the battle of the fords? ASoS, Catelyn II...

"When you stopped Lord Tywin on the Red Fork," said the Blackfish, "you delayed him just long enough for riders out of Bitterbridge to reach him with word of what was happening to the east. Lord Tywin turned his host at once, joined up with Matthis Rowan and Randyll Tarly near the headwaters of the Blackwater, and made a forced march to Tumbler's Falls, where he found Mace Tyrell and two of his sons waiting with a huge host and a fleet of barges. They floated down the river, disembarked half a day's ride from the city, and took Stannis in the rear."

Before that, Tywin is supposedly marching through the wartorn Riverlands, area home to hostile populace and evidently combatant lords. ACoK, Catelyn V.

"No." She had not dared. With Renly dead, Catelyn had been uncertain of the reception she might receive from his young widow and her protectors. Instead she had ridden through the heart of the war, through fertile riverlands turned to blackened desert by the fury of the Lannisters, and each night her scouts brought back tales that made her ill. "Lord Renly is slain," she added.

He is on the field. Ravens can not find him any better than Robb. ACoK, Catelyn V.

"Can Robb be reached by raven?"

"He's in the field, my lady," Ser Desmond replied. "The bird would have no way to find him."

The message from Tyrion to Harrenhal I've not seen, nor the riders from Harrenhal to Tywin. And if they ever rode... did any of them make it?

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Of course Stannis receives reports as to what the other armies are doing and what battles are being fought and where. How big of a fool do you think he is?

Of course he does. But seeking what information you can does not mean that it's accurate, trustworthy, or timely. Tywin has no need for feints to deceive Stannis. You previously used the distance of 500 leagues. I return that to you. Stannis has no way to know of Tywin's movements 1500 miles away save Melisandre, who does not matter in Tywin's considerations. Feint to deceive Edmure is something I can believe.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I never said Tywin should have taken the Golden Road. That is way far to the south. There are other roads in Westeros that are not on the map, however. Lots of them.

You never did. I throw it around because he has to use one of those two roads to pass through the Western mountain range, no? Unless he would march further south to Reach or prefer to use Robb's goat track.

Though I concede that perhaps he could avoid violating Reach's northern border.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Robb had roughly 6k at Oxcross. I don't know how many returned with him to Riverrun, but if Edmure is talking about 11k, that would pose a significant complication for Tywin.

Thanks, and Edmure's troops evidently did.

[Bronn Urgandy]

I dunno probably something to do with breaking guest right

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Sure, the rivers grow downstream. That alone does not mean that there are crossings available on the south. I already questioned above your claim that the river is slower upstream. It also starts from the Western mountains; even if the river grows lower and thinner, it's logical to expect the ground to become higher, rockier and harder to traverse.

Is the map collection good?

ETA: Seems like I did not, actually, previously question the strength of Red Fork's flow upriver. Still, the point is now written.

Fair point about Tywin not, as far as I know, making use to River Road sooner.

You ignore my point of Edmure being just as capable to reach those crossings than Tywin is.

So we agree on Tywin's intent in the time of marching.

All the facts you list (Storm's End fallen, Stannis marching to KL, alliance about to happen) hold true and I agree with them. And while I still do not swallow Tywin's knowledge of Tyrell alliance without biting first, your interpretation of the events seems palatable in light of it.

I sure believe he would do so without consulting Tywin. He does that. He also does send Myrcella to Dorne, and does not appear overly concerned with his father's wishes otherwise either. And for what its worth, he was sent to court to rule. AGoT, Tyrion IX.

"King's Landing. I am sending you to court."

It was the last thing Tyrion Lannister would ever have anticipated. He reached for his wine, and considered for a moment as he sipped. "And what am I to do there?"

"Rule," his father said curtly.

Informing Tywin of such a move would be logical, I agree. That does not mean it happens.

I find such an instance to be not inconceivable at all.

Full of the ongoing siege of Storm's End. Not after it. You and @Nittanian kind of articulate my case for me.

Not to me. While you repeatedly state that Tywin is in the know, I have not seen reason to believe it. By default, he does not know of the negotiations with Tyrells or the fall of Storm's End. He has to be told. Has he been? When, where and who? Why not the Tyrell riders during the battle of the fords? ASoS, Catelyn II...

"When you stopped Lord Tywin on the Red Fork," said the Blackfish, "you delayed him just long enough for riders out of Bitterbridge to reach him with word of what was happening to the east. Lord Tywin turned his host at once, joined up with Matthis Rowan and Randyll Tarly near the headwaters of the Blackwater, and made a forced march to Tumbler's Falls, where he found Mace Tyrell and two of his sons waiting with a huge host and a fleet of barges. They floated down the river, disembarked half a day's ride from the city, and took Stannis in the rear."

Before that, Tywin is supposedly marching through the wartorn Riverlands, area home to hostile populace and evidently combatant lords. ACoK, Catelyn V.

"No." She had not dared. With Renly dead, Catelyn had been uncertain of the reception she might receive from his young widow and her protectors. Instead she had ridden through the heart of the war, through fertile riverlands turned to blackened desert by the fury of the Lannisters, and each night her scouts brought back tales that made her ill. "Lord Renly is slain," she added.

He is on the field. Ravens can not find him any better than Robb. ACoK, Catelyn V.

"Can Robb be reached by raven?"

"He's in the field, my lady," Ser Desmond replied. "The bird would have no way to find him."

The message from Tyrion to Harrenhal I've not seen, nor the riders from Harrenhal to Tywin. And if they ever rode... did any of them make it?

Of course he does. But seeking what information you can does not mean that it's accurate, trustworthy, or timely. Tywin has no need for feints to deceive Stannis. You previously used the distance of 500 leagues. I return that to you. Stannis has no way to know of Tywin's movements 1500 miles away save Melisandre, who does not matter in Tywin's considerations. Feint to deceive Edmure is something I can believe.

You never did. I throw it around because he has to use one of those two roads to pass through the Western mountain range, no? Unless he would march further south to Reach or prefer to use Robb's goat track.

Though I concede that perhaps he could avoid violating Reach's northern border.

Thanks, and Edmure's troops evidently did.

Sorry friend, it's just common sense. Rivers are smaller and thinner at their source than their mouths. Sure, there are probably rapids and falls, but you don't cross there, you cross at a shallow, which are likely to be shallower and more numerous than downriver. And I'm not talking about bypassing the source through the mountains, just maintaining a westerly course away from the most heavily defended point in the region so he can link up with his own forces. Crossing at Riverrun takes him a hundred miles out of his way, just to find a more difficult, heavily defended crossing.

I like the map collection. It's far more detailed and takes you all the way to the Jade Sea and Yi-Ti. But they're probably all on-line by now anyway. Still, it's a nice collectors item. Maybe I'll get it signed some day.

I was being facetious about Tywin marching up the River Road. First of all, it's probably a week's march just to get there from Harrenhall. Secondly, it's the largest road in the region and his presence would be known weeks in advance. Then he would have to cross the Red Fork downstream from Riverrun (a significant challenge), or cross the Tumblestone west of Riverrun (which is a deep, fast river, although there is a ford some leagues away from RR), and now he is in no position to possibly rescue King's Landing should it come to that. Remember, Stannis held that very same castle for close to a year, so he knows every secret way in and out, and has a better chance than most to take it quickly, even without magic.

So in the end, Tywin did the smartest thing he could do, which is in perfect keeping with his character: he sent a token force to probe Riverrun while sending the bulk of his army to link up with the Tyrells at the Blackwater as soon as that option became available and the need for a quick trip to King's Landing became paramount. If he had chased Robb into the Westerlands, he would be cut off from KL for maybe a year or more (since he would also have an 11k army at his back); plenty of time for Stannis to take SE and then KL. Or, since he apparently is entirely clueless about the outreach to the Tyrells, for the Tyrells to simply take KL and execute his family.

If Edmure marches out with all his force, there is a very good chance that he'll muck it up, lose whatever army he has (again) and get himself captured (again). If not, then its no big loss for Tywin. Note that there is no indication that Edmure even knew Tywin was in the area until he was at the Riverrun. If Tywin had been, say, 100 miles to the south, Edmure might not even have known about it until after he was already across. The fact that this didn't happen is further proof that Tywin had no intention of crossing.

At the time Tywin marched from Harrenhal, sure, he was probably looking to confront Robb after Oxcross. But I submit his plan was more likely to draw Robb back east rather than chase him to the west. He still has both the Tyrells and Stannis poised to strike King's Landing, and preventing that would be his top priority by far.

Ask yourself these questions: Would Mace Tyrell start moving his watercraft to the Blackwater before the alliance with Tywin was signed, sealed and delivered? How long do you think it took to march those boats from Bitterbridge, let alone Highgarden, to Tumbler's Falls? Several weeks? Months? In all that time, do you think it is inconceivable that either Littlefinger or Tyrion could get a single rider to Tywin telling him that this is what is happening and that if he doesn't come to the rescue King's Landing will fall? Tywin has a lengthy heads-up on this alliance before he has to meet up with Mace. Plenty of time to get the bulk of his army to the rendezvous point and send a token force to Riverrun to make it seem that he is "probing" a way to cross the Red Fork. The same gambit that Robb used on the Green Fork.

Yes, Tyrion is sent to rule. And both Tyrion and Tywin know what valuable allies the Dornish would make (at the time, it was their only hope for an alliance). So even if this betrothal did not come from a specific command from Tywin, it is the most logical thing to do. Same with the Tyrell alliance. There is no time to waste getting Tywin's approval ahead of time, but this is a golden opportunity that they cannot pass up. Doing the painfully obvious thing on your own accord is one thing; failing to notify your lord father and letting him march his army off into the west is quite another. Tywin was fully informed of these events as quickly as possible, and he had plenty of warning that Mace was on his way to the Blackwater. There is no other possibility.

The fall of Storm's End happens about halfway through King's. The first probes on the Red Fork happen about three-quarters of the way through, while the Stone Mill doesn't occur until early in Swords. It should only take a day or two for word of Storm's End's fall to reach Tywin no matter where he is. This is big news; a significant turning point in the war. So did he begin his probing before word of the fall reached him, or after? Hard to say, but he should definitely be aware by the time of the Stone Mill. Heck, the mere fact that word of this battle is only reaching Riverrun after King's Landing has been rescued and that Edmure knows about Stannis' defeat and that Sunspear and Highgarden are now with Tywin is ample evidence that the Stone Mill, at least, was a feint to cover Tywin's retreat to the Blackwater.

So Tyrell riders, not Lannisters, come up to Tywin during the fords and inform him that negotiations that Tywin was not even aware of have been successful and he is to march to the Blackwater where his new ally Mace is waiting for him with his army? I don't see how anybody can possibly imagine that Tywin is such a great fool as that. Again, it is inconceivable that Tywin was not aware -- from his own trusted sources -- that this alliance was in the works, that they had been concluded, that Storm's End had fallen and King's Landing was under threat. And if this was not finalized by the first probe on the fords, it was very shortly after because in a few weeks Tywin has marched overland to the Blackwater, sailed to KL with Mace and smashed Stannis.

Catelyn is riding through the same lands that Tywin crossed on his initial invasion of the riverlands, and now she is crossing again when Tywin is back in the area. The mere fact that Catelyn makes it back to Riverrun at all is evidence that Tywin is still some distance away, and of course he is taking towns and castles on the way. That means he as access to their ravens and can get word quickly from King's Landing. How do you imagine he got word that the siege at Riverrun had failed, that Oxcross was lost, that Renly married Margaery? He was in the field then too. Just because you're on the march does not mean you are completely cut off from the world. Single riders can move much, much faster than armies.

I can't say why Ser Desmond would tell Cat that Robb is unreachable by raven. More than likely, Robb hasn't yet taken any castles, and his force is already rather small, so he probably wasn't leaving behind garrisons anyway.

And yet somehow Tywin did know that the northern army had departed the Twins and was marching straight down the Kingsroad, but not that Robb's horse was riding overland toward Riverrun. Somehow Robert knew that Rhaegar was at the Trident. Somehow Tywin knew that Rhaegar had lost at the Trident and he needed to get to King's Landing pronto. It's called battle intelligence. Even medieval commanders didn't just march into the field not knowing where their enemy was or what they were doing. Reports of battles being fought will get back to Stannis, particularly when Tywin gives the order not to kill any of his scouts. By the time Stannis hears of this fighting, however, it's too late because Tywin/Mace are almost on him, 1500 miles south of where he thinks they are.

Again, there are many, many more roads than what's on the map. And using major roads is a disadvantage anyway because it is much more difficult to hide your troop movements, unless, of course, that is exactly what you want, ie, the Green Fork.

Tywin is not so great a fool as to cross the river and leave 11,000 hostile troops to his rear. It was never a possibility, ergo, the fords and the Stone Mill were a delaying tactic and a feint to finalize the Tyrell alliance and disguise his movement to the Blackwater.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

Sorry friend, it's just common sense. Rivers are smaller and thinner at their source than their mouths. Sure, there are probably rapids and falls, but you don't cross there, you cross at a shallow, which are likely to be shallower and more numerous than downriver. And I'm not talking about bypassing the source through the mountains, just maintaining a westerly course away from the most heavily defended point in the region so he can link up with his own forces. Crossing at Riverrun takes him a hundred miles out of his way, just to find a more difficult, heavily defended crossing.

You argue that there tend to be more crossings upstream the rivers. Fair, I do not argue that. Nor do I deny that it's sensible to expect. But it is a generalization. It does not serve as an undisputable proof that there indeed are more crossings in existence upstream of this particular river.

Yet you would have me believe that Tywin did not need to use the fords Edmure defended (if he was intent in crossing the river), no? That he deliberately chose to give a battle (with this token force you speak of) on those fords, rather than being forced to try them by necessity. Okay, now please prove it.

I was not suggesting that Tywin would circuit the source either. I merely argued that while the river may grow smaller the higher you go, the ground also becomes harder to traverse, at least upriver from the Pinkmaiden. Tywin is moving the army of some twenty thousand men and their horses and wagons. The logistical challenge is not to be belittled.

And I have not seen a reason to believe crossings near the Riverrun are particularly difficult. On the contrary, I think them slow and regularly traversed for the all manner of purposes. Fortified and defended by Edmure, yes... but not difficult or hazardous enough to matter.

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

I like the map collection. It's far more detailed and takes you all the way to the Jade Sea and Yi-Ti. But they're probably all on-line by now anyway. Still, it's a nice collectors item. Maybe I'll get it signed some day.

Let me check: the collection we talk of is indeed The Lands of Ice and Fire?

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

I was being facetious about Tywin marching up the River Road. First of all, it's probably a week's march just to get there from Harrenhall. Secondly, it's the largest road in the region and his presence would be known weeks in advance. Then he would have to cross the Red Fork downstream from Riverrun (a significant challenge), or cross the Tumblestone west of Riverrun (which is a deep, fast river, although there is a ford some leagues away from RR), and now he is in no position to possibly rescue King's Landing should it come to that.

I still like the point raised though. According to timeline linked in this post, there's some fifty-five days between Tywin leaving Harrenhal and him turning to Blackwater headwaters. Week's march to reach the largest road in the region doesn't sound all that bad when you deduct the days possibly gained and logistical convenience achieved by using it. Edmure knows of his advance in any case; he has time to call his men and fortify the crossings.

By the look on the map in my Clash copy, it seems the River Road runs the south bank of the the Red Fork and crosses it south of the Tumblestone. So I would expect the road pass Riverrun from the south. Upstream, not down. And the position I hold (that Tywin indeed tried to cross the Red Fork on the fords south of Riverrun) finds the challenge of passing here to be irrelevant, as I think he braves it.

If you, armed with your better maps, find faults in my understanding of the geography involded, I relinquish this one thought without fight. And I entirely bypass the idea that Tywin would pass Riverrun from the northern side, for now.

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

Remember, Stannis held that very same castle for close to a year, so he knows every secret way in and out, and has a better chance than most to take it quickly, even without magic.

I agree that Stannis, if anyone, should be expected to know the Storm's End like the back of his hand. Not only did he succesfully defend it, he grew up there.

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

So in the end, Tywin did the smartest thing he could do, which is in perfect keeping with his character: he sent a token force to probe Riverrun while sending the bulk of his army to link up with the Tyrells at the Blackwater as soon as that option became available and the need for a quick trip to King's Landing became paramount.

As I have said, your interpretation of the events seems palatable if we assume Tywin is aware of the outreach to the Tyrells.

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

If he had chased Robb into the Westerlands, he would be cut off from KL for maybe a year or more (since he would also have an 11k army at his back); plenty of time for Stannis to take SE and then KL. Or, since he apparently is entirely clueless about the outreach to the Tyrells, for the Tyrells to simply take KL and execute his family.

I remind you of the Jaime's attack up the River Road during AGoT. And if Tywin deems that route too dangerous for some reason, he could always risk the Goldroad while coming back (which of course would be no longer a risk when Tyrell alliance later materializes, and this point is strenghtened further if we momentarily entertain your claim that Tywin knows of Tyrell negotiations).

Tyrells have no reason to march to KL without Renly. There's some disarray in the Reach; their king has been recently murdered, some of their own bannermen have joined the enemy, as have some if not most or even all of their Stormlander allies, and Tarly puts some men to death in Bitterbridge. They are, at least to a degree, shocked and confused, and have lost their casus belli with the loss of the Renly's claim. I count them threat to Tywin (after Renly's death) not because I expect them to launch offensive campaign, but because they might defend their turf against trespasses by him.

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

If Edmure marches out with all his force, there is a very good chance that he'll muck it up, lose whatever army he has (again) and get himself captured (again). If not, then its no big loss for Tywin. Note that there is no indication that Edmure even knew Tywin was in the area until he was at the Riverrun. If Tywin had been, say, 100 miles to the south, Edmure might not even have known about it until after he was already across. The fact that this didn't happen is further proof that Tywin had no intention of crossing.

Edmure knows of Tywin's movements. ACoK, Catelyn V. First, he has scouts out,

Two days ride from Riverrun, a scout spied them watering their horses beside a muddy steam. Catelyn had never been so glad to see the twin tower badge of House Frey.

When she asked him to lead them to her uncle, he said, "The Blackfish is gone west with the king, my lady. Martyn Rivers commands the outriders in his stead."

"I see." She had met Rivers at the Twins; a baseborn son of Lord Walder Frey, half brother to Ser Perwyn. It did not surprise her to learn that Robb had struck at the heart of Lannister power; clearly he had been contemplating just that when he sent her away to treat with Renly. "Where is Rivers now?"

"His camp is two hours ride, my lady."

and second, those scouts know of Tywin's advance.

Martyn Rivers had made his camp in the shell of a shattered holdfast, beside a roofless stable and a hundred fresh graves. He went to one knee when Catelyn dismounted. "Well met, my lady. Your brother charged us to keep an eye out for your party, and escort you back to Riverrun in all haste should we come upon you."

Catelyn scarce liked the sound of that. "Is it my father?"

"No, my lady. Lord Hoster is unchanged." Rivers was a ruddy man with scant resemblance to his half brothers. "It is only that we feared you might chance upon Lannister scouts. Lord Tywin has left Harrenhal and marches west with all his power."

"Rise," she told Rivers, frowning. Stannis Baratheon would soon be on the march as well, gods help them all. "How long until Lord Tywin is upon us?"

"Three days, perhaps four, it is hard to know. We have eyes out along all the roads, but it would be best not to linger."

Nor did they. Rivers broke his camp quickly and saddled up beside her, and they set off again, near fifty strong now, flying beneath the direwolf, the leaping trout, the twin towers.

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

At the time Tywin marched from Harrenhal, sure, he was probably looking to confront Robb after Oxcross. But I submit his plan was more likely to draw Robb back east rather than chase him to the west. He still has both the Tyrells and Stannis poised to strike King's Landing, and preventing that would be his top priority by far.

Stannis is occupied with Storm's End, Tyrells momentarily neutralized after the loss of Renly (I have updated my position and now assume Tywin knows of these, thanks to that SSM @Nittanian posted above), which opens a window of time for Tywin to act. In his position, I would prefer to take initiative and march after Robb rather than lay baits on the Riverlands. Baiting takes time, which Tywin has too little, relinquishes the initiative, and is uncertain to work.

Also, Robb did not fall to baiting before, when Tywin was goading him to attack Harrenhal. ACoK, Catelyn I...

Brynden Blackfish arched a bushy grey eyebrow. "More fool they. My first rule of war, Cat—never give the enemy his wish. Lord Tywin would like to fight on a field of his own choosing. He wants us to march on Harrenhal."

ACoK, Catelyn II...

Robb shook his head stubbornly. "We've tossed some seeds in the wind, that's all. If your sister Lysa was coming to aid us, we would have heard by now. How many birds have we sent to the Eyrie, four? I want peace too, but why should the Lannisters give me anything if all I do is sit here while my army melts away around me swift as summer snow?"

"So rather than look craven, you will dance to Lord Tywin's pipes?" she threw back. "He wants you to march on Harrenhal, ask your uncle Brynden if—"

"I said nothing of Harrenhal," Robb said. "Now, will you go to Renly for me, or must I send the Greatjon?"

Why would he do so now, when he is actually baiting Tywin himself?

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

Ask yourself these questions: Would Mace Tyrell start moving his watercraft to the Blackwater before the alliance with Tywin was signed, sealed and delivered? How long do you think it took to march those boats from Bitterbridge, let alone Highgarden, to Tumbler's Falls? Several weeks? Months?

The appearance of these barges on the Blackwater is something that has passed my mind previously. Regardless, they are there. I leave the logistical estimates on the matter to those with expertise and knowledge to make them. Take such an estimate, count backwards from the point of time when Tywin embarks those barges, and you have an educated guess.

If logistical demand of time for such an undertaking (or, say, and this is just throw, construction of those barges on site, or both,) is greater than the time needed for Tywin to march from the Red Fork to Tumbler's Falls, I'm forced to answer affirmatively to your first question to maintain my position.

But let me ask you back; why would Mace not do so? These are Tyrells of the Highgarden. They have resources to spare. Why not start the preparations well in advance, as soon as the thought presents itself, even if the effort spent would ultimately prove to be futile? The realm is in the state of war and time, as is later evident, can be a precious commodity. All the while the negotiations continue and alliance grows ever likelier.

And Mace wants his daughter to be queen and his grandson on the Iron Throne. ASoS, Sansa I...

"She might think we have some wits about us. One of us, at any rate." The old woman turned back to Sansa. "It's treason, I warned them, Robert has two sons, and Renly has an older brother, how can he possibly have any claim to that ugly iron chair? Tut-tut, says my son, don't you want your sweetling to be queen? You Starks were kings once, the Arryns and the Lannisters as well, and even the Baratheons through the female line, but the Tyrells were no more than stewards until Aegon the Dragon came along and cooked the rightful King of the Reach on the Field of Fire. If truth be told, even our claim to Highgarden is a bit dodgy, just as those dreadful Florents are always whining. 'What does it matter?' you ask, and of course it doesn't, except to oafs like my son. The thought that one day he may see his grandson with his arse on the Iron Throne makes Mace puff up like . . . now, what do you call it? Margaery, you're clever, be a dear and tell your poor old half-daft grandmother the name of that queer fish from the Summer Isles that puffs up to ten times its own size when you poke it."

I might argue that Littlefinger would have to actively sabotage these negotiations for them to fail. Tyrells achieve their original goal to marry into royalty, get a better claim through Joffrey, the legal firstborn of Robert, and receive of course pardon for their treasons and a natural place in the court. Of course they agree, it's just a matter of details and haggling.

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

In all that time, do you think it is inconceivable that either Littlefinger or Tyrion could get a single rider to Tywin telling him that this is what is happening and that if he doesn't come to the rescue King's Landing will fall? Tywin has a lengthy heads-up on this alliance before he has to meet up with Mace. Plenty of time to get the bulk of his army to the rendezvous point and send a token force to Riverrun to make it seem that he is "probing" a way to cross the Red Fork. The same gambit that Robb used on the Green Fork.

I do not think it is unconceivable. I consider it to be both sensible and entirely within the realm of possibility. What I do not believe it to be is proven.

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

Yes, Tyrion is sent to rule. And both Tyrion and Tywin know what valuable allies the Dornish would make (at the time, it was their only hope for an alliance). So even if this betrothal did not come from a specific command from Tywin, it is the most logical thing to do. Same with the Tyrell alliance. There is no time to waste getting Tywin's approval ahead of time, but this is a golden opportunity that they cannot pass up. Doing the painfully obvious thing on your own accord is one thing; failing to notify your lord father and letting him march his army off into the west is quite another. Tywin was fully informed of these events as quickly as possible, and he had plenty of warning that Mace was on his way to the Blackwater. There is no other possibility.

So we agree that Tyrion does act on his own accord, not that you ever questioned it anyway.

I have already agreed that informing Tywin of such a move would be logical. But the notion that he in fact was aware of the negotiations and even kept up to date on them is unproven conjecture by you. Here's one more possibility; failure of communication by negligence, mistake, or hazard.

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

The fall of Storm's End happens about halfway through King's. The first probes on the Red Fork happen about three-quarters of the way through, while the Stone Mill doesn't occur until early in Swords. It should only take a day or two for word of Storm's End's fall to reach Tywin no matter where he is. This is big news; a significant turning point in the war. So did he begin his probing before word of the fall reached him, or after? Hard to say, but he should definitely be aware by the time of the Stone Mill. Heck, the mere fact that word of this battle is only reaching Riverrun after King's Landing has been rescued and that Edmure knows about Stannis' defeat and that Sunspear and Highgarden are now with Tywin is ample evidence that the Stone Mill, at least, was a feint to cover Tywin's retreat to the Blackwater.

Riverrun receives the news of the Storm's End falling in Catelyn VI (ACoK)...

Later that day, Maester Vyman brought a letter. She saw him at once, hoping for some word from Robb, or from Ser Rodrik in Winterfell, but the message proved to be from one Lord Meadows, who named himself castellan of Storm's End. It was addressed to her father, her brother, her son, "or whoever now holds Riverrun." Ser Cortnay Penrose was dead, the man wrote, and Storm's End had opened its gate to Stannis Baratheon, the trueborn and rightful heir. The castle garrison had sworn their swords to his cause, one and all, and no man of them had suffered harm.

"Save Cortnay Penrose," Catelyn murmured. She had never met the man, yet she grieved to hear of his passing. "Robb should know of this at once," she said. "Do we know where he is?"

Edmure leaves for the battle of the fords earlier in that same chapter, same day.

Tell Father I have gone to make him proud." Her brother swung up into his saddle, every inch the lord in his bright mail and flowing mud-and-water cloak. A silver trout ornamented the crest of his greathelm, twin to the one painted on his shield.

"He was always proud of you, Edmure. And he loves you fiercely. Believe that."

"I mean to give him better reason than mere birth." He wheeled his warhorse about and raised a hand. Trumpets sounded, a drum began to boom, the drawbridge descended in fits and starts, and Ser Edmure Tully led his men out from Riverrun with lances raised and banners streaming.

First probe I'm aware of takes place soon after, in same day.

The sound of hurrying footsteps drove the morbid thoughts from her head. Ser Desmond's squire dashed panting into the room and knelt. "My lady . . . Lannisters . . . across the river."

It is in one of the quotes previously given.

On 11/1/2019 at 6:08 PM, TsarGrey said:

The Lannisters had ridden out of the southeast beneath a blaze of banners, Ser Desmond told her when she ascended to the battlements to join him. "A few outriders, no more," he assured her. "The main strength of Lord Tywin's host is well to the south. We are in no danger here."

South of the Red Fork the land stretched away open and flat. From the watchtower Catelyn could see for miles. Even so, only the nearest ford was visible. Edmure had entrusted Lord Jason Mallister with its defense, as well as that of three others farther upriver. The Lannister riders were milling about uncertainly near the water, crimson and silver banners flapping in the wind. "No more than fifty, my lady," Ser Desmond estimated.

Catelyn watched the riders spread out in a long line. Lord Jason's men waited to receive them behind rocks and grass and hillocks. A trumpet blast sent the horsemen forward at a ponderous walk, splashing down into the current. For a moment they made a brave show, all bright armor and streaming banners, the sun flashing off the points of their lances.

Stone Mill happens three days after.

On 11/1/2019 at 6:08 PM, TsarGrey said:

It was three days later when the hammer blow that Brienne had foretold fell, and five days before they heard of it. Catelyn was sitting with her father when Edmure's messenger arrived. The man's armor was dinted, his boots dusty, and he had a ragged hole in his surcoat, but the look on his face as he knelt was enough to tell her that the news was good. "Victory, my lady." He handed her Edmure's letter. Her hand trembled as she broke the seal.

Lord Tywin had tried to force a crossing at a dozen different fords, her brother wrote, but every thrust had been thrown back. Lord Lefford had been drowned, the Crakehall knight called Strongboar taken captive, Ser Addam Marbrand thrice forced to retreat . . . but the fiercest battle had been fought at Stone Mill, where Ser Gregor Clegane had led the assault. So many of his men had fallen that their dead horses threatened to dam the flow. In the end the Mountain and a handful of his best had gained the west bank, but Edmure had thrown his reserve at them, and they had shattered and reeled away bloody and beaten. Ser Gregor himself had lost his horse and staggered back across the Red Fork bleeding from a dozen wounds while a rain of arrows and stones fell all around him. "They shall not cross, Cat," Edmure scrawled, "Lord Tywin is marching to the southeast. A feint perhaps, or full retreat, it matters not. They shall not cross."

I cannot for certain say at which point of the battle the Tyrell riders reached Tywin with their message. I would except it to happen shortly before or after Stone Mill. I cannot flat out rule out the possibility of Tywin sacrificing his men (notable men; Lord Leo Lefford drowns, Ser Robert Brax is slain, Ser Lyle Crakehall captured) to make a feint (in the case he receives the message before ordering the attack), but with the horses threatening to dam the flow, that's quite a feint. How many horse carcasses does it take to block the river?

At which point of time does Edmure know of the Stannis' defeat and that Sunspear and Highgarden are now with Tywin?

continued under

[Ivan Tsarevich]

The lower part post of my appears to not be visible. Can someone to tell whether they can see it?

Edit: Despite not being visible, the edit button works. Post cut in two.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

continued from above

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

So Tyrell riders, not Lannisters, come up to Tywin during the fords and inform him that negotiations that Tywin was not even aware of have been successful and he is to march to the Blackwater where his new ally Mace is waiting for him with his army? I don't see how anybody can possibly imagine that Tywin is such a great fool as that.

This too may have passed my mind before. I agree that it's quite a tale for Tywin to swallow without any warning. But I'm forced to accept it, because it is the only explanation fully supported by text.

And does Tywin dare to not believe it? He would be told that his two children, royal granchildren, his status as the Hand of the King, and all the rest of the goods associated with the King's Landing are under grave and immediate threat he previously expected to be delayed.

To quote yourself:

On 11/4/2019 at 5:50 PM, John Suburbs said:

because once Storm's End had fallen and Stannis had a significant army at his back, Tywin would have immediately marched to the defense of KL rather than let the city fall and his royal grandchildren be executed.

Yes, he has to risk his army and himself if he chooses to trust Tyrells. If he does not, he risks losing KL and his relatives and his grasp to the throne and official power.

And while he could just tell Tyrells to save KL without him; would he dare to let them go there without his presence and supervision?

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

Again, it is inconceivable that Tywin was not aware -- from his own trusted sources -- that this alliance was in the works, that they had been concluded, that Storm's End had fallen and King's Landing was under threat. And if this was not finalized by the first probe on the fords, it was very shortly after because in a few weeks Tywin has marched overland to the Blackwater, sailed to KL with Mace and smashed Stannis.

For the inconceivability of it, see above paragraphs. I consider the alliance to indeed be finalized and the negotiations concluded by the time of the battle on the fords. I just do not believe Tywin to be aware of it.

Tywin knows some three days after the first probe at the fords at last. That's when the Tyrell riders come.

If Tywin knew of the Storm's End falling before that, he would be marching to KL full tilt, unless he calculated that he could not possibly reach it in time and discarded it as a lost cause. In which case dealing with Robb, who is on the loose in the Westerlands, is the issue of the most pressing importance.

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

Catelyn is riding through the same lands that Tywin crossed on his initial invasion of the riverlands, and now she is crossing again when Tywin is back in the area.

Yes she is, and the area also burned by Tywin's raiding parties in between. AGoT, Tyrion IX...

"Let them," Lord Tywin said. "Unleash Ser Gregor and send him before us with his reavers. Send forth Vargo Hoat and his freeriders as well, and Ser Amory Lorch. Each is to have three hundred horse. Tell them I want to see the riverlands afire from the Gods Eye to the Red Fork."

"They will burn, my lord," Ser Kevan said, rising. "I shall give the commands." He bowed and made for the door.

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

The mere fact that Catelyn makes it back to Riverrun at all is evidence that Tywin is still some distance away, and of course he is taking towns and castles on the way. That means he as access to their ravens and can get word quickly from King's Landing. How do you imagine he got word that the siege at Riverrun had failed, that Oxcross was lost, that Renly married Margaery? He was in the field then too. Just because you're on the march does not mean you are completely cut off from the world. Single riders can move much, much faster than armies.

See the first quotes (from the books) in this post, from ACoK, Catelyn V. Edmure is afraid of Cat running to Tywin's scouts. Tywin is some three or four days away. Edit: Those quotes are now in the above half.

I call to question that Tywin would take towns or castles along the way. He has no time.

He got news of Jaime's defeats by rider (AGoT, Tyrion IX),

"They have my son," Tywin Lannister said.

"They do, my lord." The messenger's voice was dulled by exhaustion. On the breast of his torn surcoat, the brindled boar of Crakehall was half-obscured by dried blood.

One of your sons, Tyrion thought. He took a sip of wine and said not a word, thinking of Jaime. When he lifted his arm, pain shot through his elbow, reminding him of his own brief taste of battle. He loved his brother, but he would not have wanted to be with him in the Whispering Wood for all the gold in Casterly Rock.

His lord father's assembled captains and bannermen had fallen very quiet as the courier told his tale. The only sound was the crackle and hiss of the log burning in the hearth at the end of the long, drafty common room.

of the Oxcross by raven to Harrenhal (he was not in the field), and for the news of the Renly's marriage I would suggest raven as a possibility too, to Harrenhal.

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

I can't say why Ser Desmond would tell Cat that Robb is unreachable by raven. More than likely, Robb hasn't yet taken any castles, and his force is already rather small, so he probably wasn't leaving behind garrisons anyway.

I can, it's a simple matter of raven not being usable to reach moving targets.

Robb has taken the castles (ACoK, Bran V). I found this quote thanks to @Arthur Peres' post in previous page.

Maester Luwin sent Alebelly away and closed his door. "My lords," he said gravely, "we have had a message from His Grace, with both good news and ill. He has won a great victory in the west, shattering a Lannister army at a place named Oxcross, and has taken several castles as well. He writes us from Ashemark, formerly the stronghold of House Marbrand."

When Cat later wants to send message to Robb, she sends message to Ashemark in hopes that a rider from there can reach Robb. ACoK, Catelyn VI.

"Save Cortnay Penrose," Catelyn murmured. She had never met the man, yet she grieved to hear of his passing. "Robb should know of this at once," she said. "Do we know where he is?"

"At last word he was marching toward the Crag, the seat of House Westerling," said Maester Vyman. "If I dispatched a raven to Ashemark, it may be that they could send a rider after him."

"Do so."

Tywin is reachable by rider. That is evident. The thing is, no such riders are seen before the Tyrell riders from Bitterbridge. And as previously broached, riding through the warzone is dangerous.

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

And yet somehow Tywin did know that the northern army had departed the Twins and was marching straight down the Kingsroad, but not that Robb's horse was riding overland toward Riverrun. Somehow Robert knew that Rhaegar was at the Trident. Somehow Tywin knew that Rhaegar had lost at the Trident and he needed to get to King's Landing pronto. It's called battle intelligence. Even medieval commanders didn't just march into the field not knowing where their enemy was or what they were doing. Reports of battles being fought will get back to Stannis, particularly when Tywin gives the order not to kill any of his scouts. By the time Stannis hears of this fighting, however, it's too late because Tywin/Mace are almost on him, 1500 miles south of where he thinks they are.

I do not discount scouting, it is in evidence. I merely refused to believe that Stannis somehow has reach to keep an eye on Tywin's movements far away across hostile areas. Bar Melisandre. Edited to change term "suspend disbelief" to "believe", which may be more truthful.

I had forgotten of the Marbrand's outriders. Fair point. AGoT, Tyrion VII.

Tyrion was about to tell his lord father how he proposed to reduce the Vale of Arryn to a smoking wasteland, but he was never given the chance. The door banged open again. The messenger gave Tyrion's clansmen a quick, queer look as he dropped to one knee before Lord Tywin. "My lord," he said, "Ser Addam bid me tell you that the Stark host is moving down the causeway."

Lord Tywin Lannister did not smile. Lord Tywin never smiled, but Tyrion had learned to read his father's pleasure all the same, and it was there on his face. "So the wolfling is leaving his den to play among the lions," he said in a voice of quiet satisfaction. "Splendid. Return to Ser Addam and tell him to fall back. He is not to engage the northerners until we arrive, but I want him to harass their flanks and draw them farther south."

"It will be as you command." The rider took his leave.

These riders are accounted for. I have no choice but to accept that they exist, and scout all way northwards up to the causeway. Tywin at the time is camping at the crossroads inn. Do tell me, how long way it is from the crossroad to the causeway? It seems like the distance from the Red Fork to Stormlands might be greater, depending where Stannis is (or is believed to be in) there.

I know not how Tywin could know the outcome of the battle of Trident save raven.

Show me this order from Tywin to not kill Stannis' scouts. When does it happen?

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

Again, there are many, many more roads than what's on the map.

Okay. I saw when you wrote that before, that's why

On 11/5/2019 at 9:31 PM, TsarGrey said:

I concede that perhaps he could avoid violating Reach's northern border.

But does any of those other roads pass through the Western mountain range? Does any of them grant access to the Westerlands?

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

And using major roads is a disadvantage anyway because it is much more difficult to hide your troop movements, unless, of course, that is exactly what you want, ie, the Green Fork.

A disadvantage to be weighed against logistical convenience. And if no other road on the area offers passage to the Westerlands, he would eventually be forced to use one of them.

On 11/6/2019 at 6:26 PM, John Suburbs said:

Tywin is not so great a fool as to cross the river and leave 11,000 hostile troops to his rear. It was never a possibility, ergo, the fords and the Stone Mill were a delaying tactic and a feint to finalize the Tyrell alliance and disguise his movement to the Blackwater.

When Tywin decided to march, those troops were, I suppose, dispersed. Making a forced march through dispersed enemy is something I can easily believe Tywin to do. Even if they could follow him to the Westerlands through Robb's goat track, which I cannot be sure Edmure knows of, I would still expect Tywin to have good chance to deal with them, even accounting for Robb's presence.

When Edmure later called them and Tywin found them opposing him on the countering shore, he engaged them in battle. If he could win and put them to rout, or even decimate them, he could march to west without hindrance.

There is no need assume that the battling on the fords is a feint. Edited to change the term "delaying tactic" to "feint", which is the appropriate one.

Furthermore, ser, are you familiar with a fallacy known as appeal to common sense?

[Ivan Tsarevich]

I have now lost my draft, and am not going do anything more to this this evening. My apologies for the moderators and others for this display.

I may return to the matter at another time. Or not.

Edits 1 and 2: I did, and found a way. @John Suburbs, if you please.

[nyser1]

I do not think he should have. However, I do suspect that his uncle and perhaps other Lords suggest he look at his recent blunders before entrusting him with important plans. Then again, defending Robb's flank is slightly important...