Why did Robb keep Edmure in the dark about his plan?

[Ivan Tsarevich]

I must add a caveat to my argument about the fords. As I saw in the wiki that location of the Mummer's Ford was not disclosed in any maps, I thought that it might, as far as I know, to be one of the fords fought over.

When Marq Piper, Karyl Vance, and Raymun Darry report the attacks to Mummer's Ford, Sherrer, and Wendish Town, Littlefinger states that these were under their protection. AGoT, Eddard XI.

At the council table below, Petyr Baelish lost interest in his quill and leaned forward. "Ser Marq, Ser Karyl, Ser Raymun—perhaps I might ask you a question? These holdfasts were under your protection. Where were you when all this slaughtering and burning was going on?"

From this, one might draw a conclusion that they belong to their holdings.

Edmure says this. ACoK, Catelyn V.

"This is Tully land," Edmure declared. "If Tywin Lannister thinks to cross it unbloodied, I mean to teach him a hard lesson."

One could interpret this in strict manner and argue that the fords fought over are under direct jurisdiction of the Tullys of Riverrun.

Sherrer has a stone bridge. AGoT, Eddard XI.

"I keep … I kept … I kept an alehouse, m'lord, in Sherrer, by the stone bridge. The finest ale south of the Neck, everyone said so, begging your pardons, m'lord. It's gone now like all the rest, m'lord. They come and drank their fill and spilled the rest before they fired my roof, and they would of spilled my blood too, if they'd caught me. M'lord."

Mummer's Ford seems to be upriver of Sherrer.

"They would of done the same for us, but the Sherrer holdfast's made of stone," Joss said. "Some wanted to smoke us out, but the big one said there was riper fruit up river, and they made for the Mummer's Ford."

Therefore one can argue that Mummer's Ford and Sherrer cannot be among the crossings where the battle of the fords is fought at.

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

You argue that there tend to be more crossings upstream the rivers. Fair, I do not argue that. Nor do I deny that it's sensible to expect. But it is a generalization. It does not serve as an undisputable proof that there indeed are more crossings in existence upstream of this particular river.

Yet you would have me believe that Tywin did not need to use the fords Edmure defended (if he was intent in crossing the river), no? That he deliberately chose to give a battle (with this token force you speak of) on those fords, rather than being forced to try them by necessity. Okay, now please prove it.

I was not suggesting that Tywin would circuit the source either. I merely argued that while the river may grow smaller the higher you go, the ground also becomes harder to traverse, at least upriver from the Pinkmaiden. Tywin is moving the army of some twenty thousand men and their horses and wagons. The logistical challenge is not to be belittled.

And I have not seen a reason to believe crossings near the Riverrun are particularly difficult. On the contrary, I think them slow and regularly traversed for the all manner of purposes. Fortified and defended by Edmure, yes... but not difficult or hazardous enough to matter.

Let me check: the collection we talk of is indeed The Lands of Ice and Fire?

I still like the point raised though. According to timeline linked in this post, there's some fifty-five days between Tywin leaving Harrenhal and him turning to Blackwater headwaters. Week's march to reach the largest road in the region doesn't sound all that bad when you deduct the days possibly gained and logistical convenience achieved by using it. Edmure knows of his advance in any case; he has time to call his men and fortify the crossings.

By the look on the map in my Clash copy, it seems the River Road runs the south bank of the the Red Fork and crosses it south of the Tumblestone. So I would expect the road pass Riverrun from the south. Upstream, not down. And the position I hold (that Tywin indeed tried to cross the Red Fork on the fords south of Riverrun) finds the challenge of passing here to be irrelevant, as I think he braves it.

If you, armed with your better maps, find faults in my understanding of the geography involded, I relinquish this one thought without fight. And I entirely bypass the idea that Tywin would pass Riverrun from the northern side, for now.

I agree that Stannis, if anyone, should be expected to know the Storm's End like the back of his hand. Not only did he succesfully defend it, he grew up there.

As I have said, your interpretation of the events seems palatable if we assume Tywin is aware of the outreach to the Tyrells.

I remind you of the Jaime's attack up the River Road during AGoT. And if Tywin deems that route too dangerous for some reason, he could always risk the Goldroad while coming back (which of course would be no longer a risk when Tyrell alliance later materializes, and this point is strenghtened further if we momentarily entertain your claim that Tywin knows of Tyrell negotiations).

Tyrells have no reason to march to KL without Renly. There's some disarray in the Reach; their king has been recently murdered, some of their own bannermen have joined the enemy, as have some if not most or even all of their Stormlander allies, and Tarly puts some men to death in Bitterbridge. They are, at least to a degree, shocked and confused, and have lost their casus belli with the loss of the Renly's claim. I count them threat to Tywin (after Renly's death) not because I expect them to launch offensive campaign, but because they might defend their turf against trespasses by him.

Edmure knows of Tywin's movements. ACoK, Catelyn V. First, he has scouts out,

Two days ride from Riverrun, a scout spied them watering their horses beside a muddy steam. Catelyn had never been so glad to see the twin tower badge of House Frey.

When she asked him to lead them to her uncle, he said, "The Blackfish is gone west with the king, my lady. Martyn Rivers commands the outriders in his stead."

"I see." She had met Rivers at the Twins; a baseborn son of Lord Walder Frey, half brother to Ser Perwyn. It did not surprise her to learn that Robb had struck at the heart of Lannister power; clearly he had been contemplating just that when he sent her away to treat with Renly. "Where is Rivers now?"

"His camp is two hours ride, my lady."

and second, those scouts know of Tywin's advance.

Martyn Rivers had made his camp in the shell of a shattered holdfast, beside a roofless stable and a hundred fresh graves. He went to one knee when Catelyn dismounted. "Well met, my lady. Your brother charged us to keep an eye out for your party, and escort you back to Riverrun in all haste should we come upon you."

Catelyn scarce liked the sound of that. "Is it my father?"

"No, my lady. Lord Hoster is unchanged." Rivers was a ruddy man with scant resemblance to his half brothers. "It is only that we feared you might chance upon Lannister scouts. Lord Tywin has left Harrenhal and marches west with all his power."

"Rise," she told Rivers, frowning. Stannis Baratheon would soon be on the march as well, gods help them all. "How long until Lord Tywin is upon us?"

"Three days, perhaps four, it is hard to know. We have eyes out along all the roads, but it would be best not to linger."

Nor did they. Rivers broke his camp quickly and saddled up beside her, and they set off again, near fifty strong now, flying beneath the direwolf, the leaping trout, the twin towers.

Stannis is occupied with Storm's End, Tyrells momentarily neutralized after the loss of Renly (I have updated my position and now assume Tywin knows of these, thanks to that SSM @Nittanian posted above), which opens a window of time for Tywin to act. In his position, I would prefer to take initiative and march after Robb rather than lay baits on the Riverlands. Baiting takes time, which Tywin has too little, relinquishes the initiative, and is uncertain to work.

Also, Robb did not fall to baiting before, when Tywin was goading him to attack Harrenhal. ACoK, Catelyn I...

Brynden Blackfish arched a bushy grey eyebrow. "More fool they. My first rule of war, Cat—never give the enemy his wish. Lord Tywin would like to fight on a field of his own choosing. He wants us to march on Harrenhal."

ACoK, Catelyn II...

Robb shook his head stubbornly. "We've tossed some seeds in the wind, that's all. If your sister Lysa was coming to aid us, we would have heard by now. How many birds have we sent to the Eyrie, four? I want peace too, but why should the Lannisters give me anything if all I do is sit here while my army melts away around me swift as summer snow?"

"So rather than look craven, you will dance to Lord Tywin's pipes?" she threw back. "He wants you to march on Harrenhal, ask your uncle Brynden if—"

"I said nothing of Harrenhal," Robb said. "Now, will you go to Renly for me, or must I send the Greatjon?"

Why would he do so now, when he is actually baiting Tywin himself?

The appearance of these barges on the Blackwater is something that has passed my mind previously. Regardless, they are there. I leave the logistical estimates on the matter to those with expertise and knowledge to make them. Take such an estimate, count backwards from the point of time when Tywin embarks those barges, and you have an educated guess.

If logistical demand of time for such an undertaking (or, say, and this is just throw, construction of those barges on site, or both,) is greater than the time needed for Tywin to march from the Red Fork to Tumbler's Falls, I'm forced to answer affirmatively to your first question to maintain my position.

But let me ask you back; why would Mace not do so? These are Tyrells of the Highgarden. They have resources to spare. Why not start the preparations well in advance, as soon as the thought presents itself, even if the effort spent would ultimately prove to be futile? The realm is in the state of war and time, as is later evident, can be a precious commodity. All the while the negotiations continue and alliance grows ever likelier.

And Mace wants his daughter to be queen and his grandson on the Iron Throne. ASoS, Sansa I...

"She might think we have some wits about us. One of us, at any rate." The old woman turned back to Sansa. "It's treason, I warned them, Robert has two sons, and Renly has an older brother, how can he possibly have any claim to that ugly iron chair? Tut-tut, says my son, don't you want your sweetling to be queen? You Starks were kings once, the Arryns and the Lannisters as well, and even the Baratheons through the female line, but the Tyrells were no more than stewards until Aegon the Dragon came along and cooked the rightful King of the Reach on the Field of Fire. If truth be told, even our claim to Highgarden is a bit dodgy, just as those dreadful Florents are always whining. 'What does it matter?' you ask, and of course it doesn't, except to oafs like my son. The thought that one day he may see his grandson with his arse on the Iron Throne makes Mace puff up like . . . now, what do you call it? Margaery, you're clever, be a dear and tell your poor old half-daft grandmother the name of that queer fish from the Summer Isles that puffs up to ten times its own size when you poke it."

I might argue that Littlefinger would have to actively sabotage these negotiations for them to fail. Tyrells achieve their original goal to marry into royalty, get a better claim through Joffrey, the legal firstborn of Robert, and receive of course pardon for their treasons and a natural place in the court. Of course they agree, it's just a matter of details and haggling.

I do not think it is unconceivable. I consider it to be both sensible and entirely within the realm of possibility. What I do not believe it to be is proven.

So we agree that Tyrion does act on his own accord, not that you ever questioned it anyway.

I have already agreed that informing Tywin of such a move would be logical. But the notion that he in fact was aware of the negotiations and even kept up to date on them is unproven conjecture by you. Here's one more possibility; failure of communication by negligence, mistake, or hazard.

Riverrun receives the news of the Storm's End falling in Catelyn VI (ACoK)...

Later that day, Maester Vyman brought a letter. She saw him at once, hoping for some word from Robb, or from Ser Rodrik in Winterfell, but the message proved to be from one Lord Meadows, who named himself castellan of Storm's End. It was addressed to her father, her brother, her son, "or whoever now holds Riverrun." Ser Cortnay Penrose was dead, the man wrote, and Storm's End had opened its gate to Stannis Baratheon, the trueborn and rightful heir. The castle garrison had sworn their swords to his cause, one and all, and no man of them had suffered harm.

"Save Cortnay Penrose," Catelyn murmured. She had never met the man, yet she grieved to hear of his passing. "Robb should know of this at once," she said. "Do we know where he is?"

Edmure leaves for the battle of the fords earlier in that same chapter, same day.

Tell Father I have gone to make him proud." Her brother swung up into his saddle, every inch the lord in his bright mail and flowing mud-and-water cloak. A silver trout ornamented the crest of his greathelm, twin to the one painted on his shield.

"He was always proud of you, Edmure. And he loves you fiercely. Believe that."

"I mean to give him better reason than mere birth." He wheeled his warhorse about and raised a hand. Trumpets sounded, a drum began to boom, the drawbridge descended in fits and starts, and Ser Edmure Tully led his men out from Riverrun with lances raised and banners streaming.

First probe I'm aware of takes place soon after, in same day.

The sound of hurrying footsteps drove the morbid thoughts from her head. Ser Desmond's squire dashed panting into the room and knelt. "My lady . . . Lannisters . . . across the river."

It is in one of the quotes previously given.

Stone Mill happens three days after.

I cannot for certain say at which point of the battle the Tyrell riders reached Tywin with their message. I would except it to happen shortly before or after Stone Mill. I cannot flat out rule out the possibility of Tywin sacrificing his men (notable men; Lord Leo Lefford drowns, Ser Robert Brax is slain, Ser Lyle Crakehall captured) to make a feint (in the case he receives the message before ordering the attack), but with the horses threatening to dam the flow, that's quite a feint. How many horse carcasses does it take to block the river?

At which point of time does Edmure know of the Stannis' defeat and that Sunspear and Highgarden are now with Tywin?

continued under

Lol, seems like we both have a distinct lack of "proof" here. Prove that these attacks were not a feint. Tywin has 20,000 men. Edmure has 8000. If Tywin wanted to cross the river he would have crossed the river. But that merely puts him farther away from King's Landing, which is threatened by both Stannis and the Tyrells. So the second thing you have to prove is that Tywin is so foolish that he would go chasing after Robb and let his family, and his grip on power, fall to the headman's axe.

The river is thinner, shallower and easier to cross the nearer you get to its source. That's the fact. He has already sacked and burned Pink Maiden, so there is no reason to expect any defenses there -- another fact. And it is a more direct route to the Golden Tooth simply by marching overland which he has been doing since Harrenhal -- yet another fact. Veering north puts him closer to Riverrun and Edmure's army and a deeper, stronger river, and then he just has to march back south again to reach his nearest stronghold. There's your proof: three solid reasons to keep away from Riverrun; three very bad reasons to go anywhere near it.

The Lands of Ice and Fire. That's what I have.

The River Road runs along the south bank of the Red Fork, past the Tumblestone, then over the Red Fork just to the south of Riverrun. Like I said, marching up the River Road might save a little time, but everybody in the realm will know that is exactly what you are doing. Robb wanted that when he sent Bolton down the Kings Road, but Tywin does not want this now. Edmure does not know exactly where Tywin is, otherwise he would not have stretched his men across every ford. He would converge on the point of attack. (Or maybe he would; Edmure is not that bright).

If, as you say, it was 55 days between leaving Harrenhall and turning to Tumbler Falls, which would have been less than a week before the Battle of the Blackwater, then that is plenty of time for him to be fully informed about Renly's death, the fall of Storm's End and the Tyrell negotiations. And again, if he is not aware of any of this, than this is even more reason not to cross the Red Fork because the Tyrell army is only a few day's march to King's Landing, and that would be by far the more serious threat considering Tywin would still be under the impression that Stannis is still sitting at Dragonstone with his meager host.

Jaime used the River Road because he had already smashed Edmure's army at the GT and taken Edmure hostage. There was no need for secrecy or subterfuge at this point. As I said, there are plenty of roads throughout Westeros, and since Tywin has no great need for speed at this point, it is best for him to stay off the main roads where he can cross the countryside with fewer eyes on him and remain in a position to relieve King's Landing if it becomes necessary. He can't do any of that on the River Road.

Yes, Renly is dead, the Tyrells are in disarray, all is in turmoil: but according to your scenario, Tywin is not aware of any of this. He is completely cut off from civilization simply because he is in the field, not at a castle. I'm sorry but there are reasonable assumptions and unreasonable assumptions, and the assumption that Tywin does not know about Renly, Storm's End or the Tyrell negotiations is completely unreasonable, even if there is no direct "proof" of this in the text.

Yes, Edmure knows Tywin is near. He does not know where he is heading, how far off they are or what his intentions are. But he would know all of these things if Tywin was marching his entire force straight down the King's Road, and he would know immediately if he had suddenly veered off that course.

OK, glad we got the question of Tywin's situational awareness settled. So if Tywin has been informed of Renly and Storm's End, I think we can also agree that he also knows about the Tyrell negotiations, yes? So here is the situation from his point of view: Robb is a hundred leagues to his west or more, and he first has to cross rugged, rocky, hilly terrain to get to him. It could take months. Meanwhile, Stannis is marching his now sizeable host on King's Landing, the seat of Tywin's power. This is even farther away than Robb, but it is over gentle, rolling terrain, and he also has an inside track to sail downriver lickety split to catch Stannis by surprise. But that will only work if Stannis does not know Tywin is coming. So by any rational measure, the smart thing to do (and I think we agree that Tywin is nothing if not smart, especially when it comes to waging war) is to put up a show that Lannisters are fighting Tullys near Riverrun, while quickly marching the bulk of his army to the falls for a quick ride down the Blackwater.

Again, if Tywin was hell-bent on crossing the Red Fork to chase after Robb -- his family and his hold on the Iron Throne be damned -- then he wouldn't need to "probe the defenses" at the fords "looking for weaknesses". He has three times Edmure's numbers and orders of magnitude more battle experience. He could have smashed through in a day, eliminated the army at his rear, killed or captured that last Lord of Riverrun, then reconnected with his men at the GT and the remnants of Oxcross and then wiped the floor with Robb and his piddling little 6000-man army. But Tywin is not so great a fool as to trade Cersei's, Joffrey's, Tommen's, Tyrion's and maybe Jaime's head for Robb's, and Robb and his lords were fools to think that he would.

I never said anything about Robb attacking Harrenhall. But Tywin could just as easily surmised that Robb invaded the west because Tywin was firmly encamped at HH. If he takes the field and starts laying waste to the Riverlands again, he might think this would draw Robb eastward again. If not, then he is still in a good position to come to the aid of his most valuable asset in the game: his grandson on the Iron Throne.

Sorry, but Mace diverting men and material to Tumblers Falls before the negotiations are finalized is silly. Remember, Mace's army at Bitterbridge is in chaos, with a large portion of the men sworn to lords who are now serving Stannis. Randyll Tarly is trying to sort it out, accepting new oaths from some, dismissing others, executing still others. Mace is not going to march a good chunk of his remaining army north with a bunch of barges, leaving the remainder vulnerable to attack from their own former compatriots, only to have to march them south again if the talks break down. I know Mace is a boob, but he is not a complete idiot. (Friendly advice: any time you are "forced to admit" something you don't really believe in, it's a sign that your argument is weak. )

Also, FYI, Lady Olenna is lying here. It's she who wants the marriage to Joffrey and a Tyrell on the Iron Throne. If she was truly opposed to it, it would not have happened, just like the Willas-Cersei plan.

But I agree that these negotiations were completed quickly -- all the more reason to conclude that Tywin knew well in advance of his probing that the Tyrell barges were there waiting for him. All he had to do was hide his movements from Stannis by making it seem he was trying to cross the river.

Riders were sent to Tywin upon the conclusion of these talks. Not everything is explicitly detailed in the books, and we have no POVs for this. You might as well deny that the sun rises and falls each day.

Of course Tyrion acts of his own accord. He received his general instructions from Tywin when they parted on the Green Fork. It would be simply impractical to check with Tywin before every little decision. But again, it is utterly unreasonable to think that Tyrion would not keep Tywin informed of these momentous decisions. He is about to commit Tywin to an alliance with another lord and wed his grandson, the king, to the daughter of said lord, forever linking House Tyrell to the Iron Throne, and to Casterly Rock. Again, there are reasonable assumptions and unreasonable ones . . .

When does Edmure know of Stannis' defeat and Dorne/Tyrell alliances: Cat I, SOS, when he returns from the Stone Mill:

Quote

"I threw them back. Lord Tywin, Gregor Clegane, Addam Marbrand. I turned them all away. Stannis, though . . ." He grimaced.

"Stannis? What of Stannis.?"

"He lost the Battle at King's Landing," Edmure said unhappily. "His fleet was burned, his army routed."

A Lannister victory was ill tidings, but Catelyn could not share her brother's obvious dismay. She still had nightmares about the shadow she had seen slide across Renly's tent and the way the blood had come flowing out through the steel gorget. "Stannis was no more a friend than Lord Tywin."

"You do not understand. Highgarden has declared for Joffrey. Dorne as well. All the south." His mouth tightened.

So first of all, Edmure did not throw back Tywin, Gregor, Addam, etc. That would mean he faced the entire Lannister army, and Edmure would have been crushed.

Secondly, this conversation happens shortly after the Stone Mill. So by the time Edmure has returned from throwing back Tywin, Tywin marches overland to the falls, sails down the river and wins on the Blackwater, with both Sunspear and Highgarden openly backing him, and word of this has gotten back to Riverrun. Quite the feat for a man who had to march his entire army some 200 miles at least, load 20,000 men onto barges, travel downriver nearly three times as far and win a battle. So with your standard of "proof" being plain unadorned text, sorry but I cannot "prove" that the fords were a feint and Tywin was on his way to the falls already. But all of the evidence shows that this is what happened.

Tyrell riders are not the only explanation supported by the text. Again, if you are forced to accept something that is otherwise unacceptable, then you should question your assumptions. Littlefinger is perfectly capable of sending one of Tywin's own men from Highgarden; he brought 40 knights with him and I am certain there was at least one Lannister bannerman in the bunch. Likewise, Tyrion and Cersei are more than capable of getting word to Tywin. A bunch of Tyrells showing up unannounced in Tywin's camp talking about an alliance that Tywin is completely unaware of? Sorry, no way, no how.

Tywin would not be where he is now if he was not already sure that the Tyrells could get him to King's Landing. Like I said, he is not going to trade the Iron Throne and his entire family for Robb. That would be colossally stupid. Robb is the weakest enemy in the field. He can wait.

He is not going to just let the Tyrells take over King's Landing. Alliance or no, what's to stop them from executing all Lannisters and declaring themselves king? Where do you get the idea that Tywin is this mind-bogglingly stupid?

I agree, Tywin would have marched to KL full tilt the moment he heard about Storm's End. He didn't though. Why? The only possible answer is that he knew he still had time to get there with the Tyrell barges, but it would have all been for naught if word reached Stannis that Tywin had quit the riverlands. With news of fighting at the fords, that possibility is all but neutralized. Tywin, a smart man, a cagey and experienced warlord, acting in a smart and cagey manner, while your characterization of him is a blind, bungling fool.

Yes, Tywin can get news from riders when in the field, ravens when he's gone to ground. Either way, he remains fully informed of all the important things that are happening in the war, particularly when negotiations and alliances are being struck in his name.

All of the kings have scouts and spies around their enemies. They would be at a huge competitive disadvantage if they did not. And word of battles, particularly from the victors, is quick to spread. Note that when Edmure returns to Riverrun after the fords:

Quote

It was two hours before he saw fit to come to her. By then the castle rang to the sound of noisy reunions as men embraced the women and children they had left behind. Three ravens had risen from the rookery, black wings beating at the air as they took flight..

Edmure has just won a "great victory" against the most formidable commander in the war. Do you suppose those ravens carried news about the weather? And do you discount the possibility that at least one of them was intended to bring the news to Robb, who is still out in the field?

If Tywin wanted news of the fighting at the fords to reach Stannis, he would most certainly tell his men not to kill any scouts in the area. He would, however, order scouts to be killed if they see his army marching to the falls. Again, this standard of proof you seem to expect is blinding you to the simple realities of the situation, and then you further box yourself in when you forcible accept the unacceptable as fact rather than question your original assumption

The River Road is the best route over the hills into the westerlands, but you don't need to ford the river all the way north at Riverrun in order to reach it. All he would accomplish by doing that is delay his arrival at the GT and waste good fighting men in the process.

If Tywin was so all-terrified of meeting Edmure in battle, then he wouldn't even bother trying to cross. You appeal to common sense has become an appeal to utter nonsense. Tywin is not afraid of Edmure. Jaime took him out with no problem, and Tywin is ten times the battle commander that Jaime is. If Tywin wanted to cross the river, he would have crossed it. That would be stupid, though, because all it would get him is the head of the weakest king with the smallest army while the true threat sits the Iron Throne while the heads of his own family are rotting on spikes above the Red Keep. 

[John Suburbs]

6 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

I must add a caveat to my argument about the fords. As I saw in the wiki that location of the Mummer's Ford was not disclosed in any maps, I thought that it might, as far as I know, to be one of the fords fought over.

When Marq Piper, Karyl Vance, and Raymun Darry report the attacks to Mummer's Ford, Sherrer, and Wendish Town, Littlefinger states that these were under their protection. AGoT, Eddard XI.

At the council table below, Petyr Baelish lost interest in his quill and leaned forward. "Ser Marq, Ser Karyl, Ser Raymun—perhaps I might ask you a question? These holdfasts were under your protection. Where were you when all this slaughtering and burning was going on?"

From this, one might draw a conclusion that they belong to their holdings.

Edmure says this. ACoK, Catelyn V.

"This is Tully land," Edmure declared. "If Tywin Lannister thinks to cross it unbloodied, I mean to teach him a hard lesson."

One could interpret this in strict manner and argue that the fords fought over are under direct jurisdiction of the Tullys of Riverrun.

Sherrer has a stone bridge. AGoT, Eddard XI.

"I keep … I kept … I kept an alehouse, m'lord, in Sherrer, by the stone bridge. The finest ale south of the Neck, everyone said so, begging your pardons, m'lord. It's gone now like all the rest, m'lord. They come and drank their fill and spilled the rest before they fired my roof, and they would of spilled my blood too, if they'd caught me. M'lord."

Mummer's Ford seems to be upriver of Sherrer.

"They would of done the same for us, but the Sherrer holdfast's made of stone," Joss said. "Some wanted to smoke us out, but the big one said there was riper fruit up river, and they made for the Mummer's Ford."

Therefore one can argue that Mummer's Ford and Sherrer cannot be among the crossings where the battle of the fords is fought at.

Sherrer is believed to be under the dominion of House Vance of Wayfarer's Rest. This makes it doubtful it is near Pinkmaiden, since then the Pipers would have it. But since the Pipers were burned out of their seat early in the war, maybe Vance was just the one to speak for it before Ned. 

A bridge might be considered a ford if it is low enough to be submerged in high water.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

@John Suburbs, I have taken a look glance at your post above. I could dissect it and argue further, but I see no reason to do so. It seems there is glaring difference in our process of thinking. I eliminate as many uncertain variables as possible and operate on what is certain; I avoid assumptions. I may account for them and entertain them, but I do not trust them. You consider the sequence of events I see to be unacceptable and have a vision of your own, which requires assumptions to work. And while you have not proven those assumptions true, you still argue they must be. Unless one of us changes our position, or you find proof that meets my standards, we cannot agree.

So let's quit. I have no wish to spend a lot of energy to an argument going in circles. If you wish me to answer some specific point, let me know.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The Lands of Ice and Fire. That's what I have.

Thank you.

I cannot see the bottom part of your upper post. If you cannot either, and wish to fix it, see this.

[Mordred]

Secrecy.  The plan depended on secrecy.  Messages can be intercepted and decoded. 

[Angel Eyes]

2 hours ago, Mordred said:

Secrecy.  The plan depended on secrecy.  Messages can be intercepted and decoded. 

Then the plan failed because of secrecy. 

[Eli Cross]

Robb was technically right.  Edmure interpreted it to mean he had room to make decisions.  The best laid plans can fall apart as the result of the most minor stuff.  The time to clarify things was at the last meeting.  Orders must be absolutely obeyed and no captain has the right to deviate.  That was not done so Edmure got it wrong.

[Trigger Warning]

2 hours ago, Sire de Maletroit said:

Robb was technically right.  Edmure interpreted it to mean he had room to make decisions.  The best laid plans can fall apart as the result of the most minor stuff.  The time to clarify things was at the last meeting.  Orders must be absolutely obeyed and no captain has the right to deviate.  That was not done so Edmure got it wrong.

 

Say Tywin returns West and absolutely annihilates Robb, would everyone not be on Edmure's back for not guarding his king's rear? I doubt anyone would be using the argument that Robb ordered him to hold Riverrun as an excuse for inaction, given the circumstances  I don't think it's reasonable at all to for Edmure to assume that if Tywin is allowed to return to his lands where he has every advantage that he'd be defeated by Robb, Edmure's a victim hindsight and the convenient need for him to feel guilty enough to agree to marry a Frey. 

If we're arguing that Edmure was ordered to hold Riverrun then Riverrun was held, it's ridiculous that we're to assume that this order meant that Edmure the lord of the Riverlands could do nothing but hold his own castle while an army marched through the Riverlands, if Robb wanted to be specific then he should have been, not that I buy the idea that this was the plan anyway. 

It's all too conveniently Edmure's fault when Robb needs Edmure to be at fault. 

[Angel Eyes]

23 hours ago, Trigger Warning said:

 

Say Tywin returns West and absolutely annihilates Robb, would everyone not be on Edmure's back for not guarding his king's rear? I doubt anyone would be using the argument that Robb ordered him to hold Riverrun as an excuse for inaction, given the circumstances  I don't think it's reasonable at all to for Edmure to assume that if Tywin is allowed to return to his lands where he has every advantage that he'd be defeated by Robb, Edmure's a victim hindsight and the convenient need for him to feel guilty enough to agree to marry a Frey. 

If we're arguing that Edmure was ordered to hold Riverrun then Riverrun was held, it's ridiculous that we're to assume that this order meant that Edmure the lord of the Riverlands could do nothing but hold his own castle while an army marched through the Riverlands, if Robb wanted to be specific then he should have been, not that I buy the idea that this was the plan anyway. 

It's all too conveniently Edmure's fault when Robb needs Edmure to be at fault. 

And the Battle at the Fords stopped Tywin in his tracks long enough for him to hear of Stannis attacking King's Landing to turn back and defeat Stannis, which led to Roose Bolton and Walder Frey betraying Robb at the Red Wedding because nobody likes to be on the losing side. Which brings me back to the original point that Robb should not have left Edmure in the dark.

[Trigger Warning]

11 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

And the Battle at the Fords stopped Tywin in his tracks long enough for him to hear of Stannis attacking King's Landing to turn back and defeat Stannis, which led to Roose Bolton and Walder Frey betraying Robb at the Red Wedding because nobody likes to be on the losing side. Which brings me back to the original point that Robb should not have left Edmure in the dark.

 

The problem I have with this is that I see no reason why the Tyrells wouldn't just defeat Stannis on their own, they waited for Tywin because Tywin was on his way if he wasn't they'd still have tens of thousands more men then they'd need to defeat Stannis and a greater share of the glory, Edmure's immediate concern should have been stopping Tywin returning West and protecting his king, I'd do the same thing, I don't believe there ever was this grand plan to defeat Tywin. Robb's risking his life, army and kingdom on one battle falling into place perfectly on Tywin's turf when Tywin has all the advantages. Moltke said no plan survives contact with the enemy and this plan doesn't sound promising in the first place, in my opinion the plan was bullshit made up by Brynden and Robb to get him to marry a Frey which was integral to Robb retaking the North, it's all too perfectly Edmure's fault, the guy they need to marry a Frey but won't unless he feels guilty... how convenient that he ruined our vague battle plans that he never knew of. 

 

[Arthur Peres]

10 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

I don't believe there ever was this grand plan to defeat Tywin. Robb's risking his life, army and kingdom on one battle falling into place perfectly on Tywin's turf when Tywin has all the advantages. Moltke said no plan survives contact with the enemy and this plan doesn't sound promising in the first place, in my opinion the plan was bullshit made up by Brynden and Robb to get him to marry a Frey which was integral to Robb retaking the North, it's all too perfectly Edmure's fault, the guy they need to marry a Frey but won't unless he feels guilty... how convenient that he ruined our vague battle plans that he never knew of. 


Just because you don't belive, doesn't mean it didn't exist...

We already saw Tywin being beat by a army of half his size when the terrain was not in his favor, by a commander much less impressive than Robb and Blackfish, Edmure himself, we already saw Tywin being surprised by Roose Bolton with a army much less mobile than what Robb had, and we alredy saw Robb ambushing and beating bigger armies and using the terrain to his advantage.

Tywin does not hold all the cards, he only has the numbers, but if the terrain is suited as Blackfish said it was, I don't see why not belive in him.

Robb did not force Edmure nothing, the Frey marriage was Catelyn's idea, Robb talks about lands, gold and apologies, and a Frey is by no means a bad match for Edmure, they are his strongest and wealthiest  vassals.

Von Moltke was referencing the modern warfare, medieval and ancient warfare have tons of battles that went on perfect with the original plan.

[John Suburbs]

On 11/8/2019 at 8:07 PM, TsarGrey said:

@John Suburbs, I have taken a look glance at your post above. I could dissect it and argue further, but I see no reason to do so. It seems there is glaring difference in our process of thinking. I eliminate as many uncertain variables as possible and operate on what is certain; I avoid assumptions. I may account for them and entertain them, but I do not trust them. You consider the sequence of events I see to be unacceptable and have a vision of your own, which requires assumptions to work. And while you have not proven those assumptions true, you still argue they must be. Unless one of us changes our position, or you find proof that meets my standards, we cannot agree.

So let's quit. I have no wish to spend a lot of energy to an argument going in circles. If you wish me to answer some specific point, let me know.

Thank you.

I cannot see the bottom part of your upper post. If you cannot either, and wish to fix it, see this.

Lol, we were kind of off-topic anyway, but I thought it was a good discussion.

I still say, however, that given what Robb and his advisors new at the time they gave Edmure his orders, and still later when Edmure rode out to confront Tywin, they should not have expected Tywin to follow them into the west. He had too many enemies converging on King's Landing at that point, and as I mentioned, there is no way they could expect Tywin to go chasing Robb if it meant the loss of his daughter the queen regent, his grandson the king, his other grandson the crown prince, his own son the acting hand, and his granddaughter the princess. That is not a reasonable trade under any circumstances.

PS: it is more logical to make assumptions when they support existing text and established characterizations then to pretend people and things are not as they seem just because every little detail has not been explicitly stated in the books. We assume Ned enters small council meetings with his boots on, even though the text does not state this. We assume the horse he is riding has a saddle on it. Likewise, we can assume Tywin is fully aware of the Tyrell negotiations because otherwise he would not be so quick to ride off with a bunch of Tyrells who show up in his camp out of the blue, and he wouldn't even be in that part of the country if he thought his family was in jeopardy. This conforms to the established characterization of Tywin Lannister, while assuming he knows nothing about any of this does not.

Happy Reading

[Dreadscythe95]

On 10/30/2019 at 10:16 PM, John Suburbs said:

Robb may have been king, but this wasn't his plan or his mistake alone. The Blackfish should have seen the folly in this, as well as the other decisions Edmure has made, making it obvious he would not simply let Tywin pass.

But I doubt the plan would have worked anyway. Tywin appeared to be aiming to retake Riverrun, not follow Robb into the west. Maybe he would have changed his mind once the plundering of the westerlands began, but Tywin knows that the Rock is safe, and probably Lannisport too. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Robb, Tywin is already negotiating the treaty with the Tyrells, so even if Edmure hadn't fought at the Stone Mill or along the river, Tywin would likely have sailed down the Blackwater anyway to avoid losing King's Landing and his royal heirs.

Riverrun cannot be taken by force. He would have to starve them out and that was impossible at that point. Retaking Riverrun was suicide. Tywin wanted to either march for King's Landign and secure The Iron Throne or march back The Westerlands and secure his lands but probably losing the throne, a lot of his House members and the war. This left him with one good choice and that was King's Landing and the Tyrell alliance made it even more obvious.

[Bernie Mac]

7 hours ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

Riverrun cannot be taken by force.

Where do you get this from?

"Wounded and taken prisoner," Ser Brynden said. "Lord Blackwood and the other survivors are under siege inside Riverrun, surrounded by Jaime's host."

Robb looked fretful. "We must get across this accursed river if we're to have any hope of relieving them in time."

 

It can be taken by force. The Blackfish is more than aware of this. It is why they are in a rush to get to Riverrun in AGOT. Difficult, sure, but by no means impossible. In the past the Tully's have usually backed down or abandoned it rather than see their castle taken by force, but there is no suggestion that it can not be taken. 

 

 

7 hours ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

He would have to starve them out and that was impossible at that point.

How so? Is there an unlimited amount of food inside the castle?

7 hours ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

Retaking Riverrun was suicide.

No it was not. The plan was for Stafford and Tywin to meet at Riverrun, trapping Robb in Riverrun.

All the while, their cousin Ser Stafford would be training and arming the new host he'd raised at Casterly Rock. Once he was ready, he and Lord Tywin could smash the Tullys and Starks between them.

Robb gets proactive, rather than be trapped between two hosts. Outside of it being the Riverlands capital Riverrun itself is not a particularly renowned castle. You are making it sound like Storm's End or Casterly Rock when it is nowhere close to that.

7 hours ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

Tywin wanted to either march for King's Landign and secure The Iron Throne or march back The Westerlands and secure his lands but probably losing the throne,

No, he wanted to do both. Both Tyrion and GRRM make this clear. He is not giving up Kings Landing when he marches home, he is under the impression that he can defeat Robb and still return before Stannis is ready.

"Both of them." Storm's End was strong, it should have been able to hold out for half a year or more . . . time enough for his father to finish with Robb Stark. "How did this happen?"

He is not under the impression that he can not do both.

 

 

[The Young Maester]

5 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

How so? Is there an unlimited amount of food inside the castle?

I think they can fish from the ramparts of Riverrun. Not sure how much fish there is in those waters but that’s the idea. 

[Bernie Mac]

24 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

I think they can fish from the ramparts of Riverrun. Not sure how much fish there is in those waters but that’s the idea. 

The army outside can do that, I'm not so sure the garrison inside can.

"Can we starve the castle out?"

Ser Daven shook his head. "The Blackfish expelled all the useless mouths from Riverrun and picked this country clean. He has enough stores to keep man and horse alive for two full years."

"And how well are we provisioned?"

"So long as there are fish in the rivers, we won't starve, though I don't know how we're going to feed the horses. The Freys are hauling food and fodder down from the Twins, but Ser Ryman claims he does not have enough to share, so we must forage for ourselves.

 

The Blackfish, who knew what was coming, had he sense to prepare. Other former Tully commanders, such as Edmure, did not have such foresight.

[John Suburbs]

16 hours ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

Riverrun cannot be taken by force. He would have to starve them out and that was impossible at that point. Retaking Riverrun was suicide. Tywin wanted to either march for King's Landign and secure The Iron Throne or march back The Westerlands and secure his lands but probably losing the throne, a lot of his House members and the war. This left him with one good choice and that was King's Landing and the Tyrell alliance made it even more obvious.

Yes, I addressed this further on in the thread. I didn't mean to imply that Tywin was actually trying to take Riverrun, but that this would have been necessary if his intention was to cross the Red Fork and pursue Robb into the west. But by the time of the battles of the fords and the Stone Mill, and probably long before that, it should have been obvious to all that this was not going to happen. Tywin is not going to go chasing after Robb while armies (which, from Robb's perspective would include both Stannis and the Tyrells, since he is unaware that the Tyrell alliance is in the works) are closing in on King's Landing. He would essentially be trading Cersei's, Joffrey's, Tommen's, Tyrion's and Myrcella's heads for Robb's -- which is simply not a good bargain. Even if Robb could not fathom this, the Blackfish and other northern/river lords should have.

[Dreadscythe95]

On 11/15/2019 at 8:36 AM, Bernie Mac said:

Where do you get this from?

"Wounded and taken prisoner," Ser Brynden said. "Lord Blackwood and the other survivors are under siege inside Riverrun, surrounded by Jaime's host."

Robb looked fretful. "We must get across this accursed river if we're to have any hope of relieving them in time."

 

It can be taken by force. The Blackfish is more than aware of this. It is why they are in a rush to get to Riverrun in AGOT. Difficult, sure, but by no means impossible. In the past the Tully's have usually backed down or abandoned it rather than see their castle taken by force, but there is no suggestion that it can not be taken. 

 

 

How so? Is there an unlimited amount of food inside the castle?

No it was not. The plan was for Stafford and Tywin to meet at Riverrun, trapping Robb in Riverrun.

All the while, their cousin Ser Stafford would be training and arming the new host he'd raised at Casterly Rock. Once he was ready, he and Lord Tywin could smash the Tullys and Starks between them.

Robb gets proactive, rather than be trapped between two hosts. Outside of it being the Riverlands capital Riverrun itself is not a particularly renowned castle. You are making it sound like Storm's End or Casterly Rock when it is nowhere close to that.

No, he wanted to do both. Both Tyrion and GRRM make this clear. He is not giving up Kings Landing when he marches home, he is under the impression that he can defeat Robb and still return before Stannis is ready.

"Both of them." Storm's End was strong, it should have been able to hold out for half a year or more . . . time enough for his father to finish with Robb Stark. "How did this happen?"

He is not under the impression that he can not do both.

 

 

Man you really know how a siege works? To storm a castle between 3 rivers like Riverrun you need a massive army and you will have massive loses. The Lannisters had already lost one of their two main armies, they were in enemy territory and the enemy had 3 armies after them. If Tywin wanted to take Riverrun he would need to split his army in either 2 or 3 parts and every time he did that the Starks and Tullys would trap them betwen their armies and the walls or Riverrun. There is NO WAY that Riverrun could fall at that point from Tywin. Tywin would struggle to even march on his own Land at that point and that's why he decided to go for the best option, King's Landing.