Who would have supported Viserys Targaryen if he had landed in Westeros with a Sellsword army ?

[Mario Seddy]

What if Viserys landed in westeros during Robert's reign (295 AC) with a sellsword army. We know that there were many houses loyal to the targaryens like house darry, house connignton,house moonton, house tyrell etc. Would they rise for Viserys or would they fight for the Baratheons. 

[frenin]

Truly speaking, the Martells and the Cracklaw Point, no one was suicidal enough to challenge Robert and his alligiance, the "there are still many loyalist in Westeros" is something assumed, we haven't really seen many Houses declaring for the Targs prior Robert and Renly's death and even when the Baratheons are led by two very disliked Kings, Tommen and Stannis, they still have the support of half the Realm, combined.

The Tyrells and the Conningtons are not loyalist, Mace Tyrell is clear enough about that, The Darrys, if they are still loyalists, don't have the manpower to be relevant as they were before the Robellion, the Mootons are led by a craven of note,whose alligiances we din't really note.

Viserys support would come from Dorne, the Cracklaw Point and one assumes that some Houses in the  Reach and the Crownlands would raise for them, they would sitill lose, their only chance is either Robert's loyalist didn't show up or started fighting each others, kinda what is happening right now and that's why the Targs are retaking the Throne soon enough, or the whole Reach back them, which wouldn't happen anyway, either the Reach puts its 100k swords to back Viserys or i can't see many people flocking to the dragon banners to fight the Westerlands, the Stormlands, the North, the Vale and the Riverlands.

[Daemon The Black Dragon]

I could see it playing out like the 4th Blackfyre rebellion tbh. 

[Lord Varys]

He would have all of Dorne, at least, considering Arianne Martell was betrothed to him.

In addition to that, there are the Targaryen loyalists in the Reach to consider - there are many such there, even if the Tyrells and the Redwynes of the present day are not the most convinced. And then there are the Riverlords to consider - many of which followed Aerys II and Rhaegar to the bitter end. Hoster would be already ailing, and Edmure isn't exactly the greatest of leaders - and we don't know where the those Riverlords would go who don't like the Tullys all that much. Or who did not send (m)any troops to fight with Hoster at the Trident.

One can likely also count the Ironborn as effective allies, even if Balon likely tried to use such a crisis to crown himself again - he would attack the North or the West and thus enemies of Viserys III.

Considering that Viserys III would still have an unmarried sister as coin in Daenerys he could likely forge a marriage alliance by betrothing Daenerys to Willas Tyrell - that could bring him the entire Reach and thus may win him the crown.

The wildcards are the 'Baratheon regions' - Jon Arryn would be a very old guy in this scenario. Would all his bannermen follow him against Viserys III? We don't know. What would Lysa/Littlefinger do if Jon suddenly died? Would Ned want to involve himself in another war in the south against Jon's uncle if others could fight that war in his and the Northmen's stead? We don't know that, either.

Robert could definitely count on the Stormlords and the West and, one assumes, on decent part of the Crownlands considering his has Stannis on Dragonstone and is himself in KL. But there is potential for betrayal and defection in that region.

But knowing Robert's ability as a general such a war would likely be quickly over. And if Robert reacted fast - and Viserys III was stupid enough to land too close to KL with too few troops - the invasion could be over very quickly.

[James Fenimore Cooper XXII]

Simple answer.  All those who believe he can win.  Nobody wants to side with the loser.  It's just logic.

[frenin]

3 hours ago, Daemon The Black Dragon said:

I could see it playing out like the 4th Blackfyre rebellion tbh. 

Unless the entire Reach backed him, yes, there is no rebellion.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

In addition to that, there are the Targaryen loyalists in the Reach to consider - there are many such there, even if the Tyrells and the Redwynes of the present day are not the most convinced.

One of  the things with the "there are many loyalist out there" is that we don't know about them, we just guess they exist,  from Highgarden's principal bannermen, there is no single House that has even hinted support to the Targs, they all seem Baratheons (Renly's more specifically) men.

And saying Mace and the Redwynes are not the most convinced is an understatement, those guys clearly don''t care about the Targs.

 

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

nd then there are the Riverlords to consider - many of which followed Aerys II and Rhaegar to the bitter end. Hoster would be already ailing, and Edmure isn't exactly the greatest of leaders - and we don't know where the those Riverlords would go who don't like the Tullys all that much. Or who did not send (m)any troops to fight with Hoster at the Trident.

How many of those Houses remains tho?? We are insisted that the Darrys were the most fervient loyalists in the Riverlands and because of that Robert took special care that they would never got to their feet again, the rest?? From the wiki we got the Lychesters, who allegedly fought in both sides, the Mootons whose Lorde is a note craven and we honestly don't know his alligiance and the Rygers who are the only point blank to fill.

The other Riverlords,like the Vance, Pipers, Blackwoods or Bracken haven't hinted any support to the Targs either.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

One can likely also count the Ironborn as effective allies, even if Balon likely tried to use such a crisis to crown himself again - he would attack the North or the West and thus enemies of Viserys III.

 

Balon and Asha made perfectly clear that he wasn't going to ake any chances as long  Robert or Ned were alive, if Viserys alligiances was big enough for Balon to gamble is one thing, unlikely but possible, but if not, Balon is not even trying or at worse he's helping Robert.

 

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

 Considering that Viserys III would still have an unmarried sister as coin in Daenerys he could likely forge a marriage alliance by betrothing Daenerys to Willas Tyrell - that could bring him the entire Reach and thus may win him the crown.

 

He's not going to have the entire Reach, not only because Loras was Renly's squire and later close companion, thus he can be effectively used as a hostage  if not even convinced his father to back Robert but because Robert and Renly would've achieved a considerable sway in the Reach too, is very unlikely that an entire region woud side for Viserys.

 

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The wildcards are the 'Baratheon regions' - Jon Arryn would be a very old guy in this scenario. Would all his bannermen follow him against Viserys III? We don't know.

The Valemen loved Jon, there is no doubt about that,  that they would follow him is a given and  most, if not all, of the Vale Lords would also follow, they know the man and they fought with him, than Lysa, if Robert is alive and kicking i don't really see Lysa having most sway in the Vale.

If say that Jon Arryn's image had deteriorated over the years in the Vale to him start losing support but even dead, the man still is hold in great esteem, if Lysa, mad as she was during the war, could keep the Vale in check, Jon Arrryn could definetely do it.

 

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Would Ned want to involve himself in another war in the south against Jon's uncle if others could fight that war in his and the Northmen's stead? We don't know that, either.

Ned's not leaving Robert on his own, we do know that if Robert needed him, he'd be the first to show up, and Jon's uncle is a threat to him too, what has Jon to do with that??

And tbf Doran is not backing him if Viserys don't look like the winner, we know that too, Doran doesn't play to lose.

 

 

 

[Lord Varys]

20 minutes ago, frenin said:

One of  the things with the "there are many loyalist out there" is that we don't know about them, we just guess they exist,  from Highgarden's principal bannermen, there is no single House that has even hinted support to the Targs, they all seem Baratheons (Renly's more specifically) men.

And saying Mace and the Redwynes are not the most convinced is an understatement, those guys clearly don''t care about the Targs.

That's at least how they appear in a council session run by Tywin Lannister. But if we take them at face value here then it is actually odd that the besieged Storm's End during the Rebellion, no? Which causes me to think Mace did that because the Targaryen loyalists among his bannermen pushed him to do something.

20 minutes ago, frenin said:

How many of those Houses remains tho?? We are insisted that the Darrys were the most fervient loyalists in the Riverlands and because of that Robert took special care that they would never got to their feet again, the rest?? From the wiki we got the Lychesters, who allegedly fought in both sides, the Mootons whose Lorde is a note craven and we honestly don't know his alligiance and the Rygers who are the only point blank to fill.

The other Riverlords,like the Vance, Pipers, Blackwoods or Bracken haven't hinted any support to the Targs either.

We don't know how many it would be, nor how many Riverlords actually rode with Hoster during the Rebellion in full strength. Keep in mind that Rhaegar had more men than Robert at the Trident, and Robert technically had four kingdoms behind him (although his small Stormlander host was long scattered and he could not get reinforcements from there). How is it that the armies of Ned, Hoster, and Jon did not outnumber Rhaegar's army?

20 minutes ago, frenin said:

Balon and Asha made perfectly clear that he wasn't going to ake any chances as long  Robert or Ned were alive, if Viserys alligiances was big enough for Balon to gamble is one thing, unlikely but possible, but if not, Balon is not even trying or at worse he's helping Robert.

Still, there is a possibility there. Wouldn't help him all that much anyway.

20 minutes ago, frenin said:

He's not going to have the entire Reach, not only because Loras was Renly's squire and later close companion, thus he can be effectively used as a hostage  if not even convinced his father to back Robert but because Robert and Renly would've achieved a considerable sway in the Reach too, is very unlikely that an entire region woud side for Viserys.

The Loras thing could be a complication, but chances are that we would see Reach lords rising for Viserys III even if the Tyrells stayed out of the war. Like they did during the Dance.

Robert kept the Tyrells at arms length. He married his brother to a Florent not a Tyrell. If Mace gets the Dany offer - he whose father and mother had once hoped to marry into House Targaryen - then this is not going to be an offer this man just brushes aside.

20 minutes ago, frenin said:

The Valemen loved Jon, there is no doubt about that,  that they would follow him is a given and  most, if not all, of the Vale Lords would also follow, they know the man and they fought with him, than Lysa, if Robert is alive and kicking i don't really see Lysa having most sway in the Vale.

If say that Jon Arryn's image had deteriorated over the years in the Vale to him start losing support but even dead, the man still is the paragon of a leader in there, kinda like Ned is for the northeners.

Well, if Jon fell from his horse, broke his hip, and died before he could lead an army to battle then things would change. Just as they would if the old man just couldn't survive the rigor of camp life anymore. He died around the age of eighty after all. And his heir is a boy. This could lead to trouble in the Vale.

20 minutes ago, frenin said:

Ned's not leaving Robert on his own, we do know that if Robert needed him, he'd be the first to show up, and Jon's uncle is a threat to him too, what has Jon to do with that??

I see no indication that Ned would have wanted to kill Jon's aunt and uncle - that's why he doesn't want to see them assassinated. This would have an impact on his decision there. I agree he would help Robert if he really thought he needed him, but he would not rush in this war, unlike with the Greyjoy war.

20 minutes ago, frenin said:

And tbf Doran is not backing him if Viserys don't look like the winner, we know that too, Doran doesn't play to lose.

In a scenario where Viserys III invades Westeros it makes no sense to assume Dorne would not stand with him.

[frenin]

On 11/1/2019 at 4:59 AM, Lord Varys said:

That's at least how they appear in a council session run by Tywin Lannister. But if we take them at face value here then it is actually odd that the besieged Storm's End during the Rebellion, no? Which causes me to think Mace did that because the Targaryen loyalists among his bannermen pushed him to do something.

 

Or because he/they were  loyalist 15 years ago and not so much in the present time, i don't doubting that there were a lot of loyalist during the Robellion, i'm doubting there are a lot of loyalists now.

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:59 AM, Lord Varys said:

We don't know how many it would be, nor how many Riverlords actually rode with Hoster during the Rebellion in full strength. Keep in mind that Rhaegar had more men than Robert at the Trident, and Robert technically had four kingdoms behind him (although his small Stormlander host was long scattered and he could not get reinforcements from there). How is it that the armies of Ned, Hoster, and Jon did not outnumber Rhaegar's army?

 

Because the Trident wasn't the only battle after Stony Sept, there were a several number of other  battles we have yet to see, the loyalist winning, Robert fighting and winning against impossible odds, the duels etc. In those battles the rebels would've been bloodying whilst we know that Rhaegar had reinforcements from the Reach and we don't even know what the hell happened with the Stormlanders after Ashford.

But to actually count them as loyalists they would've had to show they are loyalists, not like the Cracklaw Point saying they are dragon men trough and trough but only hint their true alligiance, we don't get absolutely nothing from them.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:59 AM, Lord Varys said:

Still, there is a possibility there. Wouldn't help him all that much anyway.

 

Sure, if Viserys gets the Reach 75-100k swords, then sure, Balon may give it another go but if Viserys don't have the full back of the Reach, the man is not doing anything.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:59 AM, Lord Varys said:

The Loras thing could be a complication, but chances are that we would see Reach lords rising for Viserys III even if the Tyrells stayed out of the war. Like they did during the Dance.

 

To think that, we've to know there are still several prominent Reach lords and we simply can't name one and if the Tyrells don't march to war, the Hightowers are not moving either, neither the Florents and the Redwynes don't care don't try and the Fossoways are married to a Tyrell etc etc at the end if the most powerful Reach lords stay put, the rest are not going to follow a doomed pretender. The Dance is an entirely different scenario, the loyalties were deeply divided and there was no adult Tyrell to put order and the regents didn't try because they didn't want ot end on the losing side,  we would surely see one or two Houses, says  Costayne or  Rowan but nothing more,  if the Tyrells, Hightowers, Florents and Redwynes don't back Viserys, the Reach is not following him.

Let's be honest  here, the Reach lords ignored Viserys all his life they never even cared to ask, the idea that all the Reach, even several Reach lords are just going to back him out of loyalty is a fantasy.

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:59 AM, Lord Varys said:

The Loras thing could be a complication, but chances are that we would see Reach lords rising for Viserys III even if the Tyrells stayed out of the war. Like they did during the Dance.

Robert kept the Tyrells at arms length. He married his brother to a Florent not a Tyrell. If Mace gets the Dany offer - he whose father and mother had once hoped to marry into House Targaryen - then this is not going to be an offer this man just brushes aside.

 

He's not his father, we know his mother didn't want and she apparently didn't like the Targs all that much... or so she said at least, he's not even thinking in marrying a family he already don't care that much if he's losing his fav son because of that match, that match is not even assuring him the win, so he might lose everything anyway.

And the statement is that accuare either, Mace grandparents wanted to marry their children with Targs, not his parents and those would want those matches because they were royals,not because they thought Targs were specials, if the Targs are not royals their value decreases a great deal, besides, Mace is hos own man on this.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:59 AM, Lord Varys said:

Well, if Jon fell from his horse, broke his hip, and died before he could lead an army to battle then things would change. Just as they would if the old man just couldn't survive the rigor of camp life anymore. He died around the age of eighty after all. And his heir is a boy. This could lead to trouble in the Vale.

 

The Vale lords would follow Robert and Ned, not only Robert is their King, but he grew amongst them and fought beside him, they loved both Robert and Ned and they would prefer them over Lysa and giving the fact that they have to obey Robert anyway, it's a win win.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:59 AM, Lord Varys said:

I see no indication that Ned would have wanted to kill Jon's aunt and uncle - that's why he doesn't want to see them assassinated. This would have an impact on his decision there. I agree he would help Robert if he really thought he needed him, but he would not rush in this war, unlike with the Greyjoy war.

 

Ned never pleads for mercy for Viserys' sake,he does for Dany and Rhaegoa nd he only does that for them because they are children, otherwise the man would just not care and there is no indication, zero that the fact that they were Jon's aunt and uncle ever even influenced  a little bit his behaviour.

He would run to that war because that war really concerns him and it might be too late when he came to Robert's aid.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:59 AM, Lord Varys said:

In a scenario where Viserys III invades Westeros it makes no sense to assume Dorne would not stand with him.

Doran would not support that war, if Viserys don't get enough support, because their defeat is cristal clear and after they were defeated, Dorne would have to pay for the broken dishes.

Doran makes clear that he only plays for the win, either he's advising Viserys to back off or he's letting him on his own.

 

 

[The Young Maester]

I can see a couple reach houses maybe joining. Tyrells and their reach block marriage (Hightower,redwyne) will stay put, unless they see a clear winner or are offered an interesting deal. 

Riverlands I doubt anyone there will join. Roberts rebellion gave Hoster the chance to strengthen his rule in the riverlands. The loyalist that opposed him probably had much of their lands and wealth stripped. Hoster wouldn’t have let a single loyalist bannermen go unanswered. He is an ambitious opportunist and having firm control over the riverlands is something he would definitely want.

Both the Vale lords and Storm lords that opposed Robert at first were probably at the trident and are most likely on the Robert Hype train by now. Stormlords are no doubt proud of putting one of their own in the throne, and would like to keep it like that. A Targaryen back in the throne would likely see them becoming the least important kingdom.

Dorne will join only if Doran is dead, or if Viserys seems to actually have a chance at taking back the iron throne. 

Balon won’t move an inch unless Robert somehow dies or if the war has been raging for a while and both sides have been severely weakened. 

I only see Viserys succeeding if he invaded during the war of the five kings. Because attacking a united Westeros wouldn’t end well for anyone.

Fact is Roberts rule couldn’t be more secure. He has 5 of the great houses firmly under his grasps and the united strength of the Reach and Dorne wouldn’t be able to successfully oppose him. 

[Lord Varys]

10 hours ago, frenin said:

Or because he/they were  loyalist 15 years ago and not so much in the present time, i don't doubting that there were a lot of loyalist during the Robellion, i'm doubting there are a lot of loyalists now.

Considering the family history of House Tyrell and Redwyne it is not very likely they were strong Targaryen loyalists to begin with. Aerys II's father and uncle fucked them hard.

10 hours ago, frenin said:

Because the Trident wasn't the only battle after Stony Sept, there were a several number of other  battles we have yet to see, the loyalist winning, Robert fighting and winning against impossible odds, the duels etc. In those battles the rebels would've been bloodying whilst we know that Rhaegar had reinforcements from the Reach and we don't even know what the hell happened with the Stormlanders after Ashford.

We don't know of any major battle after Stoney Sept, and we don't know of any loyalist army challenging the rebels in that era. Aside from, perhaps, Hoster Tully camapaigning against some of his local lords. A strong army of Northmen and Vale men should be more than enough to outnumber Rhaegar's army - yet a combined force of Stormlords, Riverlords, Vale lords, and Northmen was outnumbered by Rhaegar's army.

10 hours ago, frenin said:

Sure, if Viserys gets the Reach 75-100k swords, then sure, Balon may give it another go but if Viserys don't have the full back of the Reach, the man is not doing anything.

We don't know. He would not make a move at first ... but taking the Lannisters or the Northmen in the rear if they were to show a weakness is exactly what Balon would and did do.

10 hours ago, frenin said:

To think that, we've to know there are still several prominent Reach lords and we simply can't name one and if the Tyrells don't march to war, the Hightowers are not moving either, neither the Florents and the Redwynes don't care don't try and the Fossoways are married to a Tyrell etc etc at the end if the most powerful Reach lords stay put, the rest are not going to follow a doomed pretender. The Dance is an entirely different scenario, the loyalties were deeply divided and there was no adult Tyrell to put order and the regents didn't try because they didn't want ot end on the losing side,  we would surely see one or two Houses, says  Costayne or  Rowan but nothing more,  if the Tyrells, Hightowers, Florents and Redwynes don't back Viserys, the Reach is not following him.

Let's be honest  here, the Reach lords ignored Viserys all his life they never even cared to ask, the idea that all the Reach, even several Reach lords are just going to back him out of loyalty is a fantasy.

Why should they ask him? It is Viserys III's call to claim his throne, not theirs to invite him.

10 hours ago, frenin said:

He's not his father, we know his mother didn't want and she apparently didn't like the Targs all that much... or so she said at least, he's not even thinking in marrying a family he already don't care that much if he's losing his fav son because of that match, that match is not even assuring him the win, so he might lose everything anyway.

Mace also intended to take on essentially all the Seven Kingdoms for the failure that was Renly.

10 hours ago, frenin said:

And the statement is that accuare either, Mace grandparents wanted to marry their children with Targs, not his parents and those would want those matches because they were royals,not because they thought Targs were specials, if the Targs are not royals their value decreases a great deal, besides, Mace is hos own man on this.

Mace is the child of two people who got together because the Targaryens fucked them both. He would know everything about that.

10 hours ago, frenin said:

The Vale lords would follow Robert and Ned, not only Robert is their King, but he grew amongst them and fought beside him, they loved both Robert and Ned and they would prefer them over Lysa and giving the fact that they have to obey Robert anyway, it's a win win.

As for Robert, he is a fat drunkard in the 290s, a man whose last friend (after Jon's death) is, according to himself, Ned. Robert cannot count on many people, that's why drags Ned at court. His alliance is dead, and the men who helped put him on his throne hate each other (the Lannisters and Starks). Hoster cannot be counted upon and whether Edmure is eager to involve the Riverlands in a war we actually don't know.

10 hours ago, frenin said:

Ned never pleads for mercy for Viserys' sake,he does for Dany and Rhaegoa nd he only does that for them because they are children, otherwise the man would just not care and there is no indication, zero that the fact that they were Jon's aunt and uncle ever even influenced  a little bit his behaviour.

He would run to that war because that war really concerns him and it might be too late when he came to Robert's aid.

Ned doesn't have to concern himself with what happens south of the Neck if he doesn't want to. And sure there are clues that the Jon thing influences Ned's decision-making process in AGoT. The fact that this isn't explicit is due to the fact that the author does not want to give Jon's parentage away.

Ned does not want to see Viserys III on the Iron Throne - but that isn't the same as him wanting to have a hand in the death of the man and his sister. If it were different he would not have opposed Robert so much over assassinating them - because that was the right thing to do from the point of view of the Baratheon dynasty. Viserys III and his Dothraki were an immediate threat to King Robert and the peace in the Seven Kingdoms.

10 hours ago, frenin said:

Doran would not support that war, if Viserys don't get enough support, because their defeat is cristal clear and after they were defeated, Dorne would have to pay for the broken dishes.

Doran makes clear that he only plays for the win, either he's advising Viserys to back off or he's letting him on his own.

Doran would not be playing at all if he did not support Viserys III during an invasion. That was his game. If Viserys III ever came to Westeros it would have been with Doran's knowledge and support - even if Viserys III himself wouldn't have been aware of either.

[Lord Varys]

In general:

We are going to see the potential for Targaryen loyalists in TWoW when lords are going to join Aegon. Considering that Aegon isn't even a confirmed Targaryen whereas Viserys III would be Aerys II son and chosen heir, we can certainly extrapolate how much support Viserys III may have gotten had he shown up with 10,000 sellswords and won some important military victory early in his campaign - which is entirely possible if Viserys III had some good military advisors. A king is usually little more than a figurehead. He does not lead his troops into battle, he doesn't even necessarily do anything of note during a campaign.

Now, the situation certainly is different after the War of the Five Kings, but declaring for a phantom/fake Targaryen you really have to believe his Prince Aegon is actually a very desperate move. Declaring for a guy who you know is the rightful heir would be a different matter entirely.

We have to wait and see how much success Aegon gets. But there are hints that he is going to win by a landslide.

[The Young Maester]

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

In general:

We are going to see the potential for Targaryen loyalists in TWoW when lords are going to join Aegon. Considering that Aegon isn't even a confirmed Targaryen whereas Viserys III would be Aerys II son and chosen heir, we can certainly extrapolate how much support Viserys III may have gotten had he shown up with 10,000 sellswords and won some important military victory early in his campaign - which is entirely possible if Viserys III had some good military advisors. A king is usually little more than a figurehead. He does not lead his troops into battle, he doesn't even necessarily do anything of note during a campaign.

Now, the situation certainly is different after the War of the Five Kings, but declaring for a phantom/fake Targaryen you really have to believe his Prince Aegon is actually a very desperate move. Declaring for a guy who you know is the rightful heir would be a different matter entirely.

We have to wait and see how much success Aegon gets. But there are hints that he is going to win by a landslide.

Robert is dead and the Lannisters have fucked with everyone. At this point the nobles will jump ship with whatever pretender that comes knocking. 
Some like Mathis Rowan will join out of loyalty to house Targaryen. And others will join because they are desperate and dislike the current regime.

If Oldtown is sacked by Euron, I can easily see many reacher lords joining Aegon against the tyrells-Lannisters. 

 

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

Robert is dead and the Lannisters have fucked with everyone.

Robert's reign was rotten to the core, he had become a fat drunkard who had beggared the Crown. One wonders whether he would have even been able to finance a campaign all that easily.

The Realm is pretty much pacified in AFfC. There is trouble in the Riverlands, sure, but there are not going to come many men from there. The Reach technically has no motivation to join Aegon under any circumstances considering they run the show and dominate Tommen's court. Not to mention that opening another front by sending men to Aegon would leave them and their lands and castles even more vulnerable to the Ironborn threat.

If they do that, they will do it because they want to, not because they have to get what they want. In fact, Aegon cannot offer them anything they cannot get via Mace and Tommen.

2 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

If Oldtown is sacked by Euron, I can easily see many reacher lords joining Aegon against the tyrells-Lannisters.

If Oldtown were sacked nobody is going to join Aegon, because Aegon wouldn't be able to help them against the then even worse Ironborn threat. Aegon has neither ships nor the resources to build one nor the men to man them.

In fact, if Euron crushes the Redwynes and then takes the Arbor the Hightowers are very likely to bend the knee to Euron to prevent him from attacking/sacking their city because that's what they do. They submit rather than fight, both to the Ironborn and the Gardeners in the past. Their wealth is based on trade - trade that's not going to continue after Euron takes over the Arbor unless the come to an understanding with him.

The Redwyne fleet is their last hope. If they fail they will have to make a deal with Euron. Because neither Tommen nor Aegon can magically create a new war fleet strong enough to drive the Ironborn out of their waters.

[frenin]

On 11/1/2019 at 4:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

Considering the family history of House Tyrell and Redwyne it is not very likely they were strong Targaryen loyalists to begin with. Aerys II's father and uncle fucked them hard.

 

We don't know that, they seemed pretty loyalist to me back in the day but the again, the Reach meekly surrendered to the Ned.

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

We don't know of any major battle after Stoney Sept, and we don't know of any loyalist army challenging the rebels in that era. Aside from, perhaps, Hoster Tully camapaigning against some of his local lords. A strong army of Northmen and Vale men should be more than enough to outnumber Rhaegar's army - yet a combined force of Stormlords, Riverlords, Vale lords, and Northmen was outnumbered by Rhaegar's army.

 

We know they were more battles, not only because according to Cat, Ned left to war in the South and Robb was born around the Trident and more random details characteers give us about the Robellion but because Martin himself had already said it.

 

The Targaryens had lost a number of battles (and had also won some), but they weren't really losing the war until the Trident and the Sack of King's Landing. And then it was lost. And sieges were a crucial part of medieval warfare. Storm's End was not geographically strategic, but it was the base of Robert's power, as important to House Baratheon as Winterfell was to the Starks. If it had fallen, Robert would have lost his home and his lands... and two of his brothers would have been hostages in enemy hands. All important chips. Also the fall of Storm's End might have convinced many of the storm lords supporting him that the time had come to bend the knee. So the castle was hardly unimportant.

Tyrell had a sizeable host, but some of his strength was with Rhaegar, certainly. Rhaegar actually outnumbered Robert on the Trident, although Robert's troops were more battle-tested. I haven't gone into the whole history of the fighting, but there was a good deal more to it than just two armies meeting on the Trident. There were a number of earlier battles, sieges, escapes, ambushes, duels, and forays, and fighting in places as farflung as the Vale and the Dornish Marches. SSM

 

Quote

We don't know. He would not make a move at first ... but taking the Lannisters or the Northmen in the rear if they were to show a weakness is exactly what Balon would and did do.

Yeah he did that... after both Robert and Ned were dead.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

Why should they ask him? It is Viserys III's call to claim his throne, not theirs to invite him.

 

Because his supposed King lived as a beggar, because even the Blackfyres had people looking for their return and Peake indeed brought Daemon 2 after he head about his prophecy.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

Mace also intended to take on essentially all the Seven Kingdoms for the failure that was Renly.

 

Because with the Reach and Stormlands army and the Riverlands and the North fighting the West, Westeros was there to the taking.

Not the same that if he's putting all the men to fight a united alligiance.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

Mace is the child of two people who got together because the Targaryens fucked them both. He would know everything about that.

 

And why  would that make him proner to marry a Targ??

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

As for Robert, he is a fat drunkard in the 290s, a man whose last friend (after Jon's death) is, according to himself, Ned. Robert cannot count on many people, that's why drags Ned at court. His alliance is dead, and the men who helped put him on his throne hate each other (the Lannisters and Starks). Hoster cannot be counted upon and whether Edmure is eager to involve the Riverlands in a war we actually don't know.

 

You're shooting blanks here, Robert not relying on anyone but Ned is not the same that Robert's bannermen not loving the drunkard,  we do know Robert was still loved, the Vale and the rest would folloow him and the idea that Edmure would not march is simply ludicrous.

His alliance may be dead, it wasn't but ok, but the one who actually comes to kill them all is what said alligiance needs to reborn, Tywin and Ned are not going to fight each other with Viserys around.

 

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

Ned doesn't have to concern himself with what happens south of the Neck if he doesn't want to. And sure there are clues that the Jon thing influences Ned's decision-making process in AGoT. The fact that this isn't explicit is due to the fact that the author does not want to give Jon's parentage away.

No?? Perhaps Ned is oblivious to the fact that Viserys is coming for him.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

Ned does not want to see Viserys III on the Iron Throne - but that isn't the same as him wanting to have a hand in the death of the man and his sister. If it were different he would not have opposed Robert so much over assassinating them - because that was the right thing to do from the point of view of the Baratheon dynasty. Viserys III and his Dothraki were an immediate threat to King Robert and the peace in the Seven Kingdoms.

 

Ned only opposes to Dany's and Rhaego's death, not Viserys, because one is a 13 year old and the other and unborn babe.

I can't remember Ned thinking once about Viserys, he remembers him in dreams and that's all, the Targ i think he thought the most was Aerys and that was just a dozen times if so.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

Doran would not be playing at all if he did not support Viserys III during an invasion. That was his game. If Viserys III ever came to Westeros it would have been with Doran's knowledge and support - even if Viserys III himself wouldn't have been aware of either.

Doran rather not playing that play and lose, Doran would give him support, but he's not commiting to anything further if Viserys don't look like winning.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:37 PM, Lord Varys said:

In general:

We are going to see the potential for Targaryen loyalists in TWoW when lords are going to join Aegon. Considering that Aegon isn't even a confirmed Targaryen whereas Viserys III would be Aerys II son and chosen heir, we can certainly extrapolate how much support Viserys III may have gotten had he shown up with 10,000 sellswords and won some important military victory early in his campaign - which is entirely possible if Viserys III had some good military advisors. A king is usually little more than a figurehead. He does not lead his troops into battle, he doesn't even necessarily do anything of note during a campaign.

Now, the situation certainly is different after the War of the Five Kings, but declaring for a phantom/fake Targaryen you really have to believe his Prince Aegon is actually a very desperate move. Declaring for a guy who you know is the rightful heir would be a different matter entirely.

We have to wait and see how much success Aegon gets. But there are hints that he is going to win by a landslide.

This is a very fallace argument. If there is something we were beaten with during the entire saga, is everybody hates the Lannisters but Tywin scares the shit out of everyone.

Hell, even JonCon thinnks the Stormlords may support them and one of the reasons the GC decide to back YGriff is because Tywin's dead, the fact that Westeros is utterly broken also helps. The situation is so dramatically different that trying to extrapolate is like cheating in the Patience. 

No one is facing Robert Baratheon, Ned Stark, Stannis Baratheon and Tywin Lannister in battle, the whole south is hailing YGriff as their King and even then the whole south is backing the lad when every other Lannister/Baratheon commander is either dead or considered done.

Everyone south the Neck believe Stannis' done and Varys had to kill Kevan because would almmost definetly defeat them, Kevan was a reputed man, the Lords were not likely to betray him as they will betray Cersei, with Kevan in power, the lords would stay put, that's why he had to go. All of that had to happen for YG to have the crown.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 5:18 PM, Lord Varys said:

Robert's reign was rotten to the core, he had become a fat drunkard who had beggared the Crown. One wonders whether he would have even been able to finance a campaign all that easily.

 

The state of the Crown wasn't a public knowledge and sure he could've had financed a proper campaign, he has Casterly's Rock support, the Iron Bank support and the Riverlords and Vale are not poor either.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 5:18 PM, Lord Varys said:

 The Realm is pretty much pacified in AFfC. There is trouble in the Riverlands, sure, but there are not going to come many men from there. The Reach technically has no motivation to join Aegon under any circumstances considering they run the show and dominate Tommen's court. Not to mention that opening another front by sending men to Aegon would leave them and their lands and castles even more vulnerable to the Ironborn threat.

 

Is it?? There are trouble in the Riverlands and the Riverlords and riverfolk hate the Lannisters,  the Reach lords also disliked the Lannisters and if YG takes care of the IB he'd the man for them, the Reach folk disliked the Lannisters too, i don't know why either i suppose is inertia.

 

On 11/1/2019 at 5:18 PM, Lord Varys said:

 If they do that, they will do it because they want to, not because they have to get what they want. In fact, Aegon cannot offer them anything they cannot get via Mace and Tommen.

 

Ofc they'll do because they want, the question is why would they want to.

 

 

 

[Lord Varys]

38 minutes ago, frenin said:

We don't know that, they seemed pretty loyalist to me back in the day but the again, the Reach meekly surrendered to the Ned.

 

We know they were more battles, not only because according to Cat, Ned left to war in the South and Robb was born around the Trident and more random details characteers give us about the Robellion but because Martin himself had already said it.

 

The Targaryens had lost a number of battles (and had also won some), but they weren't really losing the war until the Trident and the Sack of King's Landing. And then it was lost. And sieges were a crucial part of medieval warfare. Storm's End was not geographically strategic, but it was the base of Robert's power, as important to House Baratheon as Winterfell was to the Starks. If it had fallen, Robert would have lost his home and his lands... and two of his brothers would have been hostages in enemy hands. All important chips. Also the fall of Storm's End might have convinced many of the storm lords supporting him that the time had come to bend the knee. So the castle was hardly unimportant.

Tyrell had a sizeable host, but some of his strength was with Rhaegar, certainly. Rhaegar actually outnumbered Robert on the Trident, although Robert's troops were more battle-tested. I haven't gone into the whole history of the fighting, but there was a good deal more to it than just two armies meeting on the Trident. There were a number of earlier battles, sieges, escapes, ambushes, duels, and forays, and fighting in places as farflung as the Vale and the Dornish Marches. SSM

That SSM refers to the Battle of Summerhall and the Storming of Gulltown, respectively. This SSM is from before ASoS as far as I recall right now.

There were no major battles that we know of after Stoney Sept.

Early AGoT contains inconsistencies in relation to the chronology of the war as given by later chapters and books. For instance, Ned had already fought at Gulltown and Stoney Sept when he married Catelyn. He did not ride off to war then, he had returned from war to marry her and then he rode off again weeks or months later.

38 minutes ago, frenin said:

Yeah he did that... after both Robert and Ned were dead.

And they could die in such a campaign, no? Or suffer a defeat so crushing that Balon would get the courage to do something.

38 minutes ago, frenin said:

Because his supposed King lived as a beggar, because even the Blackfyres had people looking for their return and Peake indeed brought Daemon 2 after he head about his prophecy.

Viserys III is called 'the Beggar King' meaning he lived off the charity of magisters and nobles in the Free Cities. He did not live like an actual beggar, though. As an impoverished, homeless nobleman, yes, but not like a common beggar.

38 minutes ago, frenin said:

And why  would that make him proner to marry a Targ??

Because that's what his parents wanted to do and where denied. Walder Frey also joins Robb when he offers to marry one of his daughters.

38 minutes ago, frenin said:

You're shooting blanks here, Robert not relying on anyone but Ned is not the same that Robert's bannermen not loving the drunkard,  we do know Robert was still loved, the Vale and the rest would folloow him and the idea that Edmure would not march is simply ludicrous.

His alliance may be dead, it wasn't but ok, but the one who actually comes to kill them all is what said alligiance needs to reborn, Tywin and Ned are not going to fight each other with Viserys around.

We have no indication that Robert was still loved. He was a fat drunkard. Name one person who counts as Robert's friend in AGoT aside from Ned. He doesn't get along with/likes his brothers, and there are no Stormlords at his court at all.

The idea that Robert can still inspire the Seven Kingdoms is ridiculous. It is like believing Aegon the Unworthy could still make a woman fall in love with him after he grown fat and ugly.

Robert is not as far gone as Aerys II at Harrenhal, but he is not far behind him, either.

And how well the Lannisters and Starks could have worked together in such a war is a question nobody seems to be considering. They do rip apart Robert's Realm after his death, something they definitely could also be doing during a war against Viserys III.

38 minutes ago, frenin said:

No?? Perhaps Ned is oblivious to the fact that Viserys is coming for him.

I'm sure Ned would like to see him try.

38 minutes ago, frenin said:

Ned only opposes to Dany's and Rhaego's death, not Viserys, because one is a 13 year old and the other and unborn babe.

I can't remember Ned thinking once about Viserys, he remembers him in dreams and that's all, the Targ i think he thought the most was Aerys and that was just a dozen times if so.

Robert commands the execution of Dany, her unborn child, and Viserys III. And Ned opposes the entire assassination plan. He does not say Viserys III is fair game and Robert should only not assassinate his pregnant sister.

38 minutes ago, frenin said:

Doran rather not playing that play and lose, Doran would give him support, but he's not commiting to anything further if Viserys don't look like winning.

That's just nonsense. Doran's entire game was making Viserys III king. That was his only plan to get revenge

38 minutes ago, frenin said:

This is a very fallace argument. If there is something we were beaten with during the entire saga, is everybody hates the Lannisters but Tywin scares the shit out of everyone.

Hell, even JonCon thinnks the Stormlords may support them and one of the reasons the GC decide to back YGriff is because Tywin's dead, the fact that Westeros is utterly broken also helps. The situation is so dramatically different that trying to extrapolate is like cheating in the Patience. 

Sure, because Aegon is a feigned boy and the Golden Company know or suspect that. Nobody would have supported him against Tywin. But Viserys III is a different animal. He is a confirmed dragon, not a boy pretending to be a dragon.

The Stormlords wouldn't have declared for Viserys III, of course, despite the fact that some/many of them might now join Aegon. That's because of Robert's and Renly's popularity. But Stannis is still around and nobody gives a rat's ass about him.But they are, overall, irrelevant, considering they cannot offer that many men, anyway, having lost men at the Blackwater and at Duskendale, and possibly having still men in the Tyrell armies.

38 minutes ago, frenin said:

Everyone south the Neck believe Stannis' done and Varys had to kill Kevan because would almmost definetly defeat them, Kevan was a reputed man, the Lords were not likely to betray him as they will betray Cersei, with Kevan in power, the lords would stay put, that's why he had to go. All of that had to happen for YG to have the crown.

Varys murders Kevan because he could have kept the Lannister-Tyrell alliance together. The lords of the Realm don't give shit about Kevan Lannister. He and the Tyrells could end Aegon's campaign if they acted fast, but he would not prevent others from joining Aegon.

38 minutes ago, frenin said:

The state of the Crown wasn't a public knowledge and sure he could've had financed a proper campaign, he has Casterly's Rock support, the Iron Bank support and the Riverlords and Vale are not poor either.

How do you know that? The Small Council definitely know how much in debt the Crown is.

38 minutes ago, frenin said:

Is it?? There are trouble in the Riverlands and the Riverlords and riverfolk hate the Lannisters,  the Reach lords also disliked the Lannisters and if YG takes care of the IB he'd the man for them, the Reach folk disliked the Lannisters too, i don't know why either i suppose is inertia.

The Riverlands are irrelevant. They might be able to oust the Lannister oppressors, but they are not really in the shape to raise a massive army to fight elsewhere in the Realm. I'm sure many Riverlords will join Aegon, but they won't mean much if they and the Stormlords were the only ones.

 

[frenin]

On 11/1/2019 at 7:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

That SSM refers to the Battle of Summerhall and the Storming of Gulltown, respectively. This SSM is from before ASoS as far as I recall right now.

There were no major battles that we know of after Stoney Sept.

Early AGoT contains inconsistencies in relation to the chronology of the war as given by later chapters and books. For instance, Ned had already fought at Gulltown and Stoney Sept when he married Catelyn. He did not ride off to war then, he had returned from war to marry her and then he rode off again weeks or months later.

Impossible, not that only makes zero sense, both armies would not have just sit back for 9 months in the middle of Winter in an already blazen Riverlands and Martin talks about an earlier battles, sieges, escapes, duels and forays, we have yet to see the whole a lot of battles around there.

 

I don't remember no one saying that Ned had fought in Gulltown in AGOT, Cat only says that after their marriage they were spared a forthnight before Ned rode south to war.

 

On 11/1/2019 at 7:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

And they could die in such a campaign, no? Or suffer a defeat so crushing that Balon would get the courage to do something.

 

And that's what i'm saying, he would not bestir himself unless they are dead or losing badly.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 7:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

Viserys III is called 'the Beggar King' meaning he lived off the charity of magisters and nobles in the Free Cities. He did not live like an actual beggar, though. As an impoverished, homeless nobleman, yes, but not like a common beggar.

 

Both things means the same from a Westerosi lord, they left Viserys to his own, to claim that they all were fervients loyalist in the meantime, it's unlikely at best.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 7:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

Because that's what his parents wanted to do and where denied. Walder Frey also joins Robb when he offers to marry one of his daughters.

 

...?? Olenna literally tells us that she did not want that match and we have yet to see why Luthor wanted, we know the matches were his grandparents wish, but that's not to say it was also shared by the parents.

Again i don't understand the correlation.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 7:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

We have no indication that Robert was still loved. He was a fat drunkard. Name one person who counts as Robert's friend in AGoT aside from Ned. He doesn't get along with/likes his brothers, and there are no Stormlords at his court at all.

The idea that Robert can still inspire the Seven Kingdoms is ridiculous. It is like believing Aegon the Unworthy could still make a woman fall in love with him after he grown fat and ugly.

Robert is not as far gone as Aerys II at Harrenhal, but he is not far behind him, either.

And how well the Lannisters and Starks could have worked together in such a war is a question nobody seems to be considering. They do rip apart Robert's Realm after his death, something they definitely could also be doing during a war against Viserys III.

• From Bowen Marsh, to JonCon, to Martin himself talking about the relationships Robert and Ned had with the Vale lords we learn that he's still loved. 
• And yet we know that many Lords rather the Unworthy over his heir, the idea that being fat=not loyalty is ludicrous, Robert is no longer a proper warrior, he was still the ribald jest man people liked.
• ???? Hmmmm, Are you suggesting that Robert was on the verge of becoming mad?? Or are you suggesting that people were on the verge of being horrified by him?? I've seen you posting this several times and just don't get it, being fat and drunkard is not good but that doesn't even remotely prevents you for winning loyalty and love, the idea that Aegon and Robert, or other fat kings lose it because of that makes zero sense and is yet to be proved.
• They do rip apart because Viserys wasn't there and Westeros amd its lords minded their own business, Viserys force them to focus in one single enemy, even if they don't like it.

 

The only bad things we hear about Robert is that he's a drunkard oaf and that's just by most of his enemies and speaking truly, most of the lords simply don't care about that.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 7:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

Robert commands the execution of Dany, her unborn child, and Viserys III. And Ned opposes the entire assassination plan. He does not say Viserys III is fair game and Robert should only not assassinate his pregnant sister.

 

Yeah but he not once talks about Viserys, hell we are in Ned's mind and he not once thinks about Viserys, his only real concern there is not seeing dead children and it's quite clear that Dany is the important one there.

 

 

Quote

I'm sure Ned would like to see him try.

I'm sure he would, i don't think he'd take any chances there

On 11/1/2019 at 7:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

That's just nonsense. Doran's entire game was making Viserys III king. That was his only plan to get revenge

 

That's just the truth, he wanted revenge and because of that he would surely take some risks, but Doran is not going to back Viserys if he's just supported by Dorne and a half dozen Houses in the Reach and Crownlands.

 

On 11/1/2019 at 7:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

Sure, because Aegon is a feigned boy and the Golden Company know or suspect that. Nobody would have supported him against Tywin. But Viserys III is a different animal. He is a confirmed dragon, not a boy pretending to be a dragon.

The Stormlords wouldn't have declared for Viserys III, of course, despite the fact that some/many of them might now join Aegon. That's because of Robert's and Renly's popularity. But Stannis is still around and nobody gives a rat's ass about him.But they are, overall, irrelevant, considering they cannot offer that many men, anyway, having lost men at the Blackwater and at Duskendale, and possibly having still men in the Tyrell armies.

If a confirmed dragon were that relevant, we might hear about that earlier, we never do and Viserys is worst than a feigned dragon anyway, he's a beggar dragon, why would you support a beggar dragon and challenge the Great Lion, Viserys is neither promising, not especially clever or charismatic and his beggar times had left him half Aerys, dashing boy YGriff is far more promising than Viserys could ever hope to be.

No one is talking about Stannis and no one gives a rat ass about him because he seems a sunked ship, in the Blackwater they did care about him.  

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 7:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

Varys murders Kevan because he could have kept the Lannister-Tyrell alliance together. The lords of the Realm don't give shit about Kevan Lannister. He and the Tyrells could end Aegon's campaign if they acted fast, but he would not prevent others from joining Aegon.

 

No??

Ser Daven snorted. "I'll wed and bed my stoat, never fear. I know what happened to Robb Stark. From what Edwyn tells me, though, I'd best pick one who hasn't flowered yet, or I'm like to find that Black Walder has been there first. I'll wager he's had Gatehouse Ami, and more than thrice. Maybe that explains Lancel's godliness, and his father's mood."
"You have seen Ser Kevan?"
"Aye. He passed here on his way west. I asked him to help us take the castle, but Kevan would have none of it. He brooded the whole time he was here. Courteous enough, but chilly. I swore to him that I never asked to be made Warden of the West, that the honor should have gone to him, and he declared that he held no grudge against me, but you would never have known it from his tone. He stayed three days and hardly said three words to me. Would that he'd remained, I could have used his counsel. Our friends of Frey would not have dared vex Ser Kevan the way that they've been vexing me."

 

"What if he is?"
"Who rules now in King's Landing? Not Tommen, he is just a child. Is it Ser Kevan?"
Candlelight gleamed in Lord Godric's black eyes. "If it were, you'd be in chains. It's the queen who rules."

 

People don't like to choose the losing side and the Lannisters´Tyrells, led by an able man fighying against a sellsword company reputed for failing in Westeros,don't look like the losing side.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 7:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

How do you know that? The Small Council definitely know how much in debt the Crown is.

 

The small council is the government, that's not public knowledge.

 

On 11/1/2019 at 7:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

The Riverlands are irrelevant. They might be able to oust the Lannister oppressors, but they are not really in the shape to raise a massive army to fight elsewhere in the Realm. I'm sure many Riverlords will join Aegon, but they won't mean much if they and the Stormlords were the only ones.

 

The Riverlands, the Stormlands, the Vale and the Reach, every Kingdom that has a grudge against the Lannisters will support Aegon and we're talking about support, not manpower. Even if the Riverlands right now are not in a position to fight and they only need to fight the Lanisters in their home to be vital, them giving support to Aegon is a huge boost.

[Arthur Peres]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 The Realm is pretty much pacified in AFfC. There is trouble in the Riverlands, sure, but there are not going to come many men from there.

 

Not really.

The Ironborn are still in open rebellion as Euron just invaded the Reach and took the shield islands, the arbor and is going for Old Town, The North is in a civil war, with Stannis and a leftover IB there, the Riverlands are still a mess with Jaime trying to fix things up, in the crowlands Cersei lost control of the capital city to a armed militia, Dragon Stone and Storm's End are being sieged and Aegon landed on Stormlands.

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

Impossible, not that only makes zero sense, both armies would not have just sit back for 9 months in the middle of Winter in an already blazen Riverlands and Martin talks about an earlier battles, sieges, escapes, duels and forays, we have yet to see the whole a lot of battles around there.

There might be some minor skirmishes to be revealed, but we do know the major things ... unless, of course, there was more unrest in the Vale Jon had to deal with after Robert left and, perhaps, with Ned in the North. But once everybody was in the Riverlands the rebels had to wait for Rhaegar to marshal his new host. Whatever fighting took place after Stoney Sept was either very minor or completely irrelevant (like the Tyrell foragers burnings some villages or holdfasts in the Stormlands while they were besieging Storm's End).

The Battle of Summerhall in the Dornish Marches, the Battle of Gulltown and the Battle of the Bells are all battles that are first mentioned after that SSM.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

I don't remember no one saying that Ned had fought in Gulltown in AGOT, Cat only says that after their marriage they were spared a forthnight before Ned rode south to war.

AGoT implied that double wedding took place when the war started, not in the middle of it. This is an inconsistency. In fact, it is a very problematic inconsistency because we now have Hoster and his forces helping Robert at Stoney Sept before the double wedding - meaning the Tullys sort of committed themselves already, causing problems for the original version that Ned and Jon were forced to marry Hoster's daughters to get his support.

Once Hoster had taken up arms against the Hand of the King he certainly was a traitor. Ned and especially Jon could have told Hoster to go marry his daughters himself - he would have been forced to support them, anyway.

One imagines Jon and Ned promised Hoster they would go through with a marriage before Stoney Sept, of course, but as things stand Hoster wouldn't have had the means to force them - as it would have been if he had only committed himself to military support if Stoney Sept had taken place after the double wedding.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

Both things means the same from a Westerosi lord, they left Viserys to his own, to claim that they all were fervients loyalist in the meantime, it's unlikely at best.

Nobody said anything about fervent loyalists. Nobody is particularly fervent in this world. Lords do care about their own interests first, and only second or third who is king unless they have a grudge against the king.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

...?? Olenna literally tells us that she did not want that match and we have yet to see why Luthor wanted, we know the matches were his grandparents wish, but that's not to say it was also shared by the parents.

Again i don't understand the correlation.

The idea is that Mace's obsession to make his daughter queen comes from the fact that his parents were screwed by the Targaryens. Either Olenna was ambitious in her middle years while Mace was growing up or his father Luthor was and Mace got his ambition from him. In any case, Viserys III could offer Mace the same match his grandfather was offered for his own father - a royal princess as Lady of Highgarden. And if Doran was not supporting Viserys III - as you want to believe - he could even offer to marry Mace's daughter himself.

Robert certainly could try to counter that by offering Myrcella to Willas or Joffrey to Margaery but we don't know whether he would be smart or quick enough to do that - not to mention that Myrcella is younger than Dany and Joffrey merely the heir of a king and not a king himself.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

From Bowen Marsh, to JonCon, to Martin himself talking about the relationships Robert and Ned had with the Vale lords we learn that he's still loved. 

We see how far this goes when those Vale do nothing to help either Robert's brothers or Robert's children against their many enemies. They were the friends of no one, allowing a half-mad woman to force them to stay at home.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

• And yet we know that many Lords rather the Unworthy over his heir, the idea that being fat=not loyalty is ludicrous, Robert is no longer a proper warrior, he was still the ribald jest man people liked.

Robert is no longer the man he was during the Rebellion or the Greyjoy war. He has grown fat, drunk, and lazy. When he accidentally knocks Jaime off his feet at the tourney and brags about how he could still defeat the Kingslayer he is making a fool of himself. He is not what he once was.

Being great drinking buddy is good in peace times, but in war you want a guy who can take charge. Robert would need to get back in shape, but being the man he was he would not take that time. He couldn't even survive a simple hunt, chances are not that bad that he would have gotten himself in a campaign.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

• ???? Hmmmm, Are you suggesting that Robert was on the verge of becoming mad?? Or are you suggesting that people were on the verge of being horrified by him?? I've seen you posting this several times and just don't get it, being fat and drunkard is not good but that doesn't even remotely prevents you for winning loyalty and love, the idea that Aegon and Robert, or other fat kings lose it because of that makes zero sense and is yet to be proved.

It is the same thing as a bookish king like Aerys I or a not-so-impressive king like Daeron II not getting as much support as they are due. Another analogy is the fact that the Northmen do not just accept or follow any Stark heir there is - they have to prove that they are strong. If they show that they are weak they will be exploited like Tytos was, or put down like Robb nearly was by the Greatjon and eventually by Roose Bolton.

Robert had a pretty good track record in the past in the military department, but he was a lousy king who allowed his court to descend into corruption, injustice, and misrule. Robert couldn't even resolve a quarrel between his own son and Ned's daughter, he refused to punish Gregor Clegane for trying to murder (!!!) Loras Tyrell in front of his own eyes, and when private feuds and civil war started he decided to ignore everything and go hunting. The man was a joke.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

• They do rip apart because Viserys wasn't there and Westeros amd its lords minded their own business, Viserys force them to focus in one single enemy, even if they don't like it.

One can (and I do) question the idea that they would have been able to do that. The Lannisters and Starks loathe each other, so they would likely not fight good as a united force. With Hoster ailing and Edmure being not exactly an impressive (and yet no lord in his own right) lack a strong leader, meaning the more powerful Riverlords might make their own deals with the two parties. Walder Frey is not going to come to anyone's aid unless his demands are met, and he might not be the only one.

If Jon can still lead an army to war things could work fine on that front, but that's not a given, either, especially since Jon would actually be in KL as Hand, not at home to quickly marshal an army.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

Yeah but he not once talks about Viserys, hell we are in Ned's mind and he not once thinks about Viserys, his only real concern there is not seeing dead children and it's quite clear that Dany is the important one there.

He doesn't have to tell us for us to make the connection that it might be problematic for him to kill/harm Jon's family.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

I'm sure he would, i don't think he'd take any chances there

That's just the truth, he wanted revenge and because of that he would surely take some risks, but Doran is not going to back Viserys if he's just supported by Dorne and a half dozen Houses in the Reach and Crownlands.

If he also had 10,000 sellswords that certainly could cause him to throw his lot in with Viserys III. 10,000 professional soldiers are a third or so what all Dorne can field.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

If a confirmed dragon were that relevant, we might hear about that earlier, we never do and Viserys is worst than a feigned dragon anyway, he's a beggar dragon, why would you support a beggar dragon and challenge the Great Lion, Viserys is neither promising, not especially clever or charismatic and his beggar times had left him half Aerys, dashing boy YGriff is far more promising than Viserys could ever hope to be.

Viserys III is a guy in exile. Nobody knows him, just as nobody knew the Blackfyre pretenders. Yet they came across the water again and again. And unlike them Viserys III has the right on his side - he is the rightful king, not the descendant of some failed pretender.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

Ser Daven snorted. "I'll wed and bed my stoat, never fear. I know what happened to Robb Stark. From what Edwyn tells me, though, I'd best pick one who hasn't flowered yet, or I'm like to find that Black Walder has been there first. I'll wager he's had Gatehouse Ami, and more than thrice. Maybe that explains Lancel's godliness, and his father's mood."

 

"You have seen Ser Kevan?"
"Aye. He passed here on his way west. I asked him to help us take the castle, but Kevan would have none of it. He brooded the whole time he was here. Courteous enough, but chilly. I swore to him that I never asked to be made Warden of the West, that the honor should have gone to him, and he declared that he held no grudge against me, but you would never have known it from his tone. He stayed three days and hardly said three words to me. Would that he'd remained, I could have used his counsel. Our friends of Frey would not have dared vex Ser Kevan the way that they've been vexing me."

"What if he is?"
"Who rules now in King's Landing? Not Tommen, he is just a child. Is it Ser Kevan?"
Candlelight gleamed in Lord Godric's black eyes. "If it were, you'd be in chains. It's the queen who rules."

People don't like to choose the losing side and the Lannisters´Tyrells, led by an able man fighying against a sellsword company reputed for failing in Westeros,don't look like the losing side.

That's the situation at the end of ASoS - and the talk of rather minor lords. Not at the end of AFfC when Kevan finally becomes regent. And at a point when a viable alternative to Tommen the Bastard presents itself.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

The small council is the government, that's not public knowledge.

Lords do talk.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Arthur Peres said:

Not really.

The Ironborn are still in open rebellion as Euron just invaded the Reach and took the shield islands, the arbor and is going for Old Town, The North is in a civil war, with Stannis and a leftover IB there, the Riverlands are still a mess with Jaime trying to fix things up, in the crowlands Cersei lost control of the capital city to a armed militia, Dragon Stone and Storm's End are being sieged and Aegon landed on Stormlands.

I meant before the Ironborn invasion. Things deteriorate later, but even then - the Ironborn thing is, from the POV of the Iron Throne, just a regional crisis, like the Riverlands thing. They cannot really hope to endanger KL.

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

One can (and I do) question the idea that they would have been able to do that. The Lannisters and Starks loathe each other, so they would likely not fight good as a united force. With Hoster ailing and Edmure being not exactly an impressive (and yet no lord in his own right) lack a strong leader, meaning the more powerful Riverlords might make their own deals with the two parties. Walder Frey is not going to come to anyone's aid unless his demands are met, and he might not be the only one.

Uhhh....

“With Balon’s “moat” now undefended, King Robert had no difficulty bringing his host across Ironman’s Bay from Seagard and Lannisport. With his Wardens of the West and North beside him, Robert forced landings on Pyke, Great Wyk, Harlaw, and Orkmont, and cut his way across the isles with steel and fire.”

Don't get me wrong, there's clearly a lot of enmity between Stark and Lannister -- though I don't think Tywin gives a shit -- but they've already fought together less than a decade ago. As for the Riverlands, wouldn't surprise me if a couple jumped ship but we know Hoster has only been sick for two years (post 295 AC). Moreover Piper and Vance listened to Edmure to camp out in the pass and the rest* seemed to have assembled at RR when he faced off against Jaime. Even if Hoster isn't able to campaign, they seem to listen to the pair of them.

Walder Frey is going to wait it out. It's what he does

* Walder obviously did not