Who would have supported Viserys Targaryen if he had landed in Westeros with a Sellsword army ?

[frenin]

On 11/1/2019 at 10:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

There might be some minor skirmishes to be revealed, but we do know the major things ... unless, of course, there was more unrest in the Vale Jon had to deal with after Robert left and, perhaps, with Ned in the North. But once everybody was in the Riverlands the rebels had to wait for Rhaegar to marshal his new host. Whatever fighting took place after Stoney Sept was either very minor or completely irrelevant (like the Tyrell foragers burnings some villages or holdfasts in the Stormlands while they were besieging Storm's End).

The Battle of Summerhall in the Dornish Marches, the Battle of Gulltown and the Battle of the Bells are all battles that are first mentioned after that SSM.

Is pretty much impossible that we know about the major things, there are literally 9 months to fill and Rhaegar got back inmediately after the Bells you don't take 9 months to marshall a 40k strong army even in the North, nor it makes any sense why would the rebels would wait Rhaegar, they would just attack why the Targs are confused and wounded, not when they had gained the upper hand again.

Not to mention that 9 months is more than enough time to go and release rhe Storm's End, Robert's brothers were starving there.

 

On 11/1/2019 at 10:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

AGoT implied that double wedding took place when the war started, not in the middle of it. This is an inconsistency. In fact, it is a very problematic inconsistency because we now have Hoster and his forces helping Robert at Stoney Sept before the double wedding - meaning the Tullys sort of committed themselves already, causing problems for the original version that Ned and Jon were forced to marry Hoster's daughters to get his support.

Once Hoster had taken up arms against the Hand of the King he certainly was a traitor. Ned and especially Jon could have told Hoster to go marry his daughters himself - he would have been forced to support them, anyway.

One imagines Jon and Ned promised Hoster they would go through with a marriage before Stoney Sept, of course, but as things stand Hoster wouldn't have had the means to force them - as it would have been if he had only committed himself to military support if Stoney Sept had taken place after the double wedding.

I didn't get that, precisely because the Stoney Sept was still earlier in the war, not the middle and Hoster's forces were in the Stony Sept because he had their agreements first, in the original version never states when said weddings took place, just that said weddings were Hoster's price for joining the rebel side.

Jon and Ned were men of honor, if Hoster had their words, he would not have to worry about them not complying.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 10:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

Nobody said anything about fervent loyalists. Nobody is particularly fervent in this world. Lords do care about their own interests first, and only second or third who is king unless they have a grudge against the king.

 

To challenge an seemingly unwinnable alligiance, is a sign of a pretty strong loyal sense.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 10:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

The idea is that Mace's obsession to make his daughter queen comes from the fact that his parents were screwed by the Targaryens. Either Olenna was ambitious in her middle years while Mace was growing up or his father Luthor was and Mace got his ambition from him. In any case, Viserys III could offer Mace the same match his grandfather was offered for his own father - a royal princess as Lady of Highgarden. And if Doran was not supporting Viserys III - as you want to believe - he could even offer to marry Mace's daughter himself.

Robert certainly could try to counter that by offering Myrcella to Willas or Joffrey to Margaery but we don't know whether he would be smart or quick enough to do that - not to mention that Myrcella is younger than Dany and Joffrey merely the heir of a king and not a king himself.

 

1.  Or you know, Mance is a pretty ambitious guy, period, we are not told much about Luthor but Olenna tells us she didn't want nothing with a Targ. If we sre not told, until now, about Mace being haunted by any family ghodt, there is no reason to invet one.
2. Dany is not a royal princess anymore, Myrce is, Dany is as great match as Mace would want her to be.
3.  I didn't say that would not back Viserys right away, i said that Doran is not making his Kingdom fight a lost war.
4.  Viserys is still a beggar.
5. Why Joffrey being the just the heir is bad again??

 

Given the fact that Renly knows politics, controls Loras and knows the Reach lords i see that unlikely anyway.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 10:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

We see how far this goes when those Vale do nothing to help either Robert's brothers or Robert's children against their many enemies. They were the friends of no one, allowing a half-mad woman to force them to stay at home.

 

You said yourself didn't you?? Robert's brothers, Robert's children, who later may not be Robert's and Ned's own children, so many loyalties,  Robert and Ned alive totally changes that.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 10:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

Robert is no longer the man he was during the Rebellion or the Greyjoy war. He has grown fat, drunk, and lazy. When he accidentally knocks Jaime off his feet at the tourney and brags about how he could still defeat the Kingslayer he is making a fool of himself. He is not what he once was.

Being great drinking buddy is good in peace times, but in war you want a guy who can take charge. Robert would need to get back in shape, but being the man he was he would not take that time. He couldn't even survive a simple hunt, chances are not that bad that he would have gotten himself in a campaign.

No one ever even hint that Robert is as strong as he was then, but there is a pretty big gap between not being in proper shape and actually people despising you and not respecting you.

Robert not only could do that, but Robert has plenty of options to go to. Stannis, Ned, Tywin hell even Renly can properly take the field for Robert and get the w. Not being in good shape≠ being unable to plan a proper campaign.

And Robert din't survive ""a simple hunt" because a huge boar pierced him while being beypnd drunkness, him being out of shape wasn't the problem there.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 10:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

It is the same thing as a bookish king like Aerys I or a not-so-impressive king like Daeron II not getting as much support as they are due. Another analogy is the fact that the Northmen do not just accept or follow any Stark heir there is - they have to prove that they are strong. If they show that they are weak they will be exploited like Tytos was, or put down like Robb nearly was by the Greatjon and eventually by Roose Bolton.

No, it's not, Robert is neither bookish, nor a not so impressive King, Robert is just fat, no one ever doubts about Robert's strenght, no one took him for a weak King, so there is literally no reason to believe people think he is, no one ever though about toppling him, no one treated him like Tytos. Nor Robb was put because he was weak, you're projecting a lot here.

The idea that being lousy and boisterous only works as long as you're fit is ludicrous tbf, if Robert's reign were continuosly challenged after he grew fat, if talk about him being a fat drunkard and not being the beast he was back in the day=weak started, i'd say you have a point, but no one ever questions Robert the fat's authority or Robert the fat drunkard's power, so it makes no esnse you do.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 10:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

Robert had a pretty good track record in the past in the military department, but he was a lousy king who allowed his court to descend into corruption, injustice, and misrule. Robert couldn't even resolve a quarrel between his own son and Ned's daughter, he refused to punish Gregor Clegane for trying to murder (!!!) Loras Tyrell in front of his own eyes, and when private feuds and civil war started he decided to ignore everything and go hunting. The man was a joke.

 

Aaah, see,  you're projecting your own wishes and letting the bias take the best of you.

Corruption and misrule are a sign of an indifferent King, not a weak King, as Balon learned for his sorrow, Robert reign was always like that and yet the only one who had the bad sense to defy was Balon, why would he punish Gregor?? He had put order, he was done there.

And for the penultimate time, there was no war going on between the Tullys and Lannisters while Robert was alive, nor Robert heard a bout the private feuds, that civil war had to wait for Robert to be dead, Ned seized and Joff on the Throne, otherwise it would have never happened. Robert didn't knowingly leave everything in the middle of a civil war or a civil war at all, when he left he had ordered Tyrion's release and Jaime and Ned's reconciliation.

I know you think that, that you dislike and despise the man, Westeros don't tho.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 10:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

One can (and I do) question the idea that they would have been able to do that. The Lannisters and Starks loathe each other, so they would likely not fight good as a united force. With Hoster ailing and Edmure being not exactly an impressive (and yet no lord in his own right) lack a strong leader, meaning the more powerful Riverlords might make their own deals with the two parties. Walder Frey is not going to come to anyone's aid unless his demands are met, and he might not be the only one.

If Jon can still lead an army to war things could work fine on that front, but that's not a given, either, especially since Jon would actually be in KL as Hand, not at home to quickly marshal an army.

• The Lannisters and Starks loathe each other but they are no idiots.
•  When Edmure called for Riverrun's banners the only House that stay put were the Freys, the rest followed Edmure, so they would do just that, they are no making a deal with the other parties, not that there is a deal to make, Viserys don't look like winning.
• Jon only has to send a raven to Nestor Royce to do the job for him.

 

On 11/1/2019 at 10:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

He doesn't have to tell us for us to make the connection that it might be problematic for him to kill/harm Jon's family.

 

Ofc he has, if he don't give Viserys a single thought, Viserys is nothing to him, as simple as that, the rest is wanting an excuse for the man not helping Robert right away.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 10:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

If he also had 10,000 sellswords that certainly could cause him to throw his lot in with Viserys III. 10,000 professional soldiers are a third or so what all Dorne can field.

 

In terms of raw numbers, is not a great difference against Robert's alligiance.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 10:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

Viserys III is a guy in exile. Nobody knows him, just as nobody knew the Blackfyre pretenders. Yet they came across the water again and again. And unlike them Viserys III has the right on his side - he is the rightful king, not the descendant of some failed pretender.

 

 the Blackfyre pretenders had a powerbase that Viserys simply lacks and we know that there were a lot of talking about the rebellion during Aerys reign, not a rumour during Daerons and Baelor aegis and but Dorne there is absolutely none during Robert's reign and until Renly's death, but sure Viserys is ending like Daemon 3.

And he has the right of his side thing is as true for both of them, he's the rightful King to the loyalists, not so much to the rebels or even the Realm, the Blackfyres also thought Daeron's 2 line  the usurping one.

 

 

On 11/1/2019 at 10:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

That's the situation at the end of ASoS - and the talk of rather minor lords. Not at the end of AFfC when Kevan finally becomes regent. And at a point when a viable alternative to Tommen the Bastard presents itself.

 

The difference is that the Reach is threaten and everybody hates the Lannisters, but even if everyone hates the Lannisters, they are not going to face them with an able man in command.

On 11/1/2019 at 10:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

Lords do talk.

Then we have yet to see that talk.

 

 

[FictionIsntReal]

On 11/1/2019 at 10:29 AM, Lord Varys said:

Mace also intended to take on essentially all the Seven Kingdoms for the failure that was Renly.

Mace intended to take on the Lannisters and perhaps the Crownlands, with a significant portion of the Stormlands supporting him. Dorne was completely out of the war, the Iron Islands hadn't made any move yet, the Vale hadn't either but was expected to be anti-Lannister even if they wouldn't have joined Robb's kingdom, and he was ignoring the North/Riverlands while they fought the Lannisters until he could capture King's Landing. And of course he had the most populous kingdom in Westeros firmly behind him.

Quote

Mace is the child of two people who got together because the Targaryens fucked them both. He would know everything about that.

Robert was fighting a "war of cups" even during the Tourney at Harrenhall, and Stannis regarded him as always just caring about eating, drinking, screwing and fighting. And he was very popular with all those qualities.

Quote

As for Robert, he is a fat drunkard in the 290s, a man whose last friend (after Jon's death) is, according to himself, Ned. Robert cannot count on many people, that's why drags Ned at court. His alliance is dead, and the men who helped put him on his throne hate each other (the Lannisters and Starks). Hoster cannot be counted upon and whether Edmure is eager to involve the Riverlands in a war we actually don't know.

The Lannisters kept out of Robert's alliance until after he won at the Trident, and were let into King's Landing because Aerys thought they were there to help. Jon Arryn, Ned Stark and Hoster Tully certainly don't all hate each other. When Robert calls his banners, as happened during the Greyjoy Rebellion, they respond. When Robert needed Ned to replace Jon Arryn, Ned did it even though he didn't want to.

Quote

Ned doesn't have to concern himself with what happens south of the Neck if he doesn't want to.

Ned is a loyal vassal, and if Robert summons him to defend against an invasion, Ned would definitely do so.

Quote

Ned does not want to see Viserys III on the Iron Throne - but that isn't the same as him wanting to have a hand in the death of the man and his sister. If it were different he would not have opposed Robert so much over assassinating them - because that was the right thing to do from the point of view of the Baratheon dynasty. Viserys III and his Dothraki were an immediate threat to King Robert and the peace in the Seven Kingdoms.

Ned objects to sending an assassin rather than directly confronting your enemies, as Robert had done during the rebellion. The scenario we're talking about is precisely one that would meet Ned and Barristan's ideal standards. Khal Drogo was a possible threat, but the Dothraki had never cross the water before and had yet to acquire any ships or set any kind of timetable for invasion.

Quote

Doran would not be playing at all if he did not support Viserys III during an invasion. That was his game. If Viserys III ever came to Westeros it would have been with Doran's knowledge and support - even if Viserys III himself wouldn't have been aware of either.

I agree on Doran, who did make a secret alliance for just such an ocassion.

On 11/1/2019 at 10:37 AM, Lord Varys said:

We are going to see the potential for Targaryen loyalists in TWoW when lords are going to join Aegon. Considering that Aegon isn't even a confirmed Targaryen whereas Viserys III would be Aerys II son and chosen heir, we can certainly extrapolate how much support Viserys III may have gotten had he shown up with 10,000 sellswords and won some important military victory early in his campaign - which is entirely possible if Viserys III had some good military advisors. A king is usually little more than a figurehead. He does not lead his troops into battle, he doesn't even necessarily do anything of note during a campaign.

Viserys isn't all advantages over Aegon. Nobody who knows Viserys seems to like him. Barristan was wary of him even though he'd only known Viserys as a child. And of course Viserys did get himself killed by his supposed ally rather than listening to Illyrio's wise advice to stay in Pentos, so I don't think you can assume his hypothetical wise advisors will win out. You're imagining that Viserys might have some notable military victory early in his campaign, but I see no reason to assume that given that the real Viserys never won any victories and he'd be attacking a more stable kingdom.

On 11/1/2019 at 11:18 AM, Lord Varys said:

Robert's reign was rotten to the core, he had become a fat drunkard who had beggared the Crown. One wonders whether he would have even been able to finance a campaign all that easily.

It's just Littlefinger who reports that the Crown has no coin, and Tyrion finds his accounts impossible to make sense of. We know of no complaints that the kingdom has been overburdened with taxation during his reign, nor that the Crown has been neglecting its duties. His reign is remembered as a time of mostly peace and plenty.

 

On 11/1/2019 at 1:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

And they could die in such a campaign, no? Or suffer a defeat so crushing that Balon would get the courage to do something.

Maybe all of Viserys' enemies simultaneously have heart attacks, or spontaneously combust. There's no limit to what we can imagine.

Quote

We have no indication that Robert was still loved. He was a fat drunkard. Name one person who counts as Robert's friend in AGoT aside from Ned. He doesn't get along with/likes his brothers, and there are no Stormlords at his court at all.

The idea that Robert can still inspire the Seven Kingdoms is ridiculous. It is like believing Aegon the Unworthy could still make a woman fall in love with him after he grown fat and ugly.

Robert got along with most people, even near the end. People supported him when Balon rebelled, and the Brotherhood Without Banners (whose second-in-command is one of Robert's drinking buddies) still claim loyalty to him after his death despite him not actually being the guy who ordered them out. Sandor Clegane may scoff at their high regard for him, but most people aren't like Sandor. Renly may join in Littlefinger's jests at Robert's expense, but he's going to defend the Baratheon dynasty against Lannister or Targaryen threats. Stannis already fought the Targaryens on behalf of Robert, and he'd do his duty again.

Quote

Robert is not as far gone as Aerys II at Harrenhal, but he is not far behind him, either.
 

Robert wasn't insane, and didn't insist on undermining a competent Hand out of jealousy of someone running the kingdom better. He is very, very far from Aerys II.

Quote

And how well the Lannisters and Starks could have worked together in such a war is a question nobody seems to be considering. They do rip apart Robert's Realm after his death, something they definitely could also be doing during a war against Viserys III

They had no problem being on the same side against Balon. They warred over Robert's succession, and if Robert was still on the throne that would remove the object of dispute.

Quote

Viserys III is a different animal. He is a confirmed dragon, not a boy pretending to be a dragon.

The people who actually knew him didn't think so. That's why Jorah says Rhaegar was the last dragon.

Quote

The Stormlords wouldn't have declared for Viserys III, of course, despite the fact that some/many of them might now join Aegon. That's because of Robert's and Renly's popularity. But Stannis is still around and nobody gives a rat's ass about him.But they are, overall, irrelevant, considering they cannot offer that many men, anyway, having lost men at the Blackwater and at Duskendale, and possibly having still men in the Tyrell armies.

Nobody cares about Stannis because he was smashed at the Blackwater and is no longer a threat to the Iron Throne. But this hypothetical takes place during Robert's reign, not after the Stormlanders are depleted in the War of the Five Kings.

Quote

Varys murders Kevan because he could have kept the Lannister-Tyrell alliance together. The lords of the Realm don't give shit about Kevan Lannister. He and the Tyrells could end Aegon's campaign if they acted fast, but he would not prevent others from joining Aegon.

Varys kills him because he's a good man in service of a bad cause, threatening to undo the damage Cersei caused. The lords of the realm respect his level of competence above Cersei's.

Quote

The Riverlands are irrelevant. They might be able to oust the Lannister oppressors, but they are not really in the shape to raise a massive army to fight elsewhere in the Realm. I'm sure many Riverlords will join Aegon, but they won't mean much if they and the Stormlords were the only ones.

They are ravaged during the war of the five kings, but the hypothetical with Robert on the throne takes place before that.

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We see how far this goes when those Vale do nothing to help either Robert's brothers or Robert's children against their many enemies. They were the friends of no one, allowing a half-mad woman to force them to stay at home.

The Vale Lords wanted to intervene, but didn't because Jon Arryn was dead and Lysa was regent for his heir. If Viserys invades while Jon Arryn is alive, none of that applies.

Quote

Being great drinking buddy is good in peace times, but in war you want a guy who can take charge. Robert would need to get back in shape, but being the man he was he would not take that time. He couldn't even survive a simple hunt, chances are not that bad that he would have gotten himself in a campaign.

Old men have successfully led sides in wars. Even Nymeria Martell did despite not being a warrior herself. Robert does not need to lose the pounds in order to win again.

Quote

It is the same thing as a bookish king like Aerys I or a not-so-impressive king like Daeron II not getting as much support as they are due. Another analogy is the fact that the Northmen do not just accept or follow any Stark heir there is - they have to prove that they are strong. If they show that they are weak they will be exploited like Tytos was, or put down like Robb nearly was by the Greatjon and eventually by Roose Bolton.

Nobody talks about Robert the way they did those kings, because he wasn't a nerd. Robert does not have the problem of disloyal vassals that Tytos had, with only Balon Greyjoy temporarily trying to openly defy him.

Quote

Robert had a pretty good track record in the past in the military department, but he was a lousy king who allowed his court to descend into corruption, injustice, and misrule. Robert couldn't even resolve a quarrel between his own son and Ned's daughter, he refused to punish Gregor Clegane for trying to murder (!!!) Loras Tyrell in front of his own eyes, and when private feuds and civil war started he decided to ignore everything and go hunting. The man was a joke.

Robert's resolution for a quarrel between children was that each should be disciplined by their own parents, which is a perfectly reasonable response to a childish quarrel. The news of the Riverlands being raided didn't reach King's Landing until AFTER Robert had already gone hunting and left Ned in charge, if Robert had people to fight that would presumably be more interesting than hunting.

Quote

One can (and I do) question the idea that they would have been able to do that. The Lannisters and Starks loathe each other, so they would likely not fight good as a united force.

As mentioned, they had no problem being on the same side against the Greyjoys.

Quote

Viserys III is a guy in exile. Nobody knows him, just as nobody knew the Blackfyre pretenders. Yet they came across the water again and again. And unlike them Viserys III has the right on his side - he is the rightful king, not the descendant of some failed pretender.

The Blackfyre cause was kept alive by Bittersteel, and the second attempted rebellion was a farce without him. Viserys lacks a Bittersteel.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Mace intended to take on the Lannisters and perhaps the Crownlands, with a significant portion of the Stormlands supporting him. Dorne was completely out of the war, the Iron Islands hadn't made any move yet, the Vale hadn't either but was expected to be anti-Lannister even if they wouldn't have joined Robb's kingdom, and he was ignoring the North/Riverlands while they fought the Lannisters until he could capture King's Landing. And of course he had the most populous kingdom in Westeros firmly behind him.

He had no way of knowing who would enter the war.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert was fighting a "war of cups" even during the Tourney at Harrenhall, and Stannis regarded him as always just caring about eating, drinking, screwing and fighting. And he was very popular with all those qualities.

Because, one assumes, he was not yet looking the part. The Robert in the mid-290s does. Ned is actually shocked by his appearance when he sees him again. This is not the kind of guy people gather around.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The Lannisters kept out of Robert's alliance until after he won at the Trident, and were let into King's Landing because Aerys thought they were there to help. Jon Arryn, Ned Stark and Hoster Tully certainly don't all hate each other. When Robert calls his banners, as happened during the Greyjoy Rebellion, they respond. When Robert needed Ned to replace Jon Arryn, Ned did it even though he didn't want to.

That was nine years before 298 AC, and six years before our invasion scenario. Things change as time passes. Ned decided to become Hand to investigate the Arryn murder. Not for Cat and not for Robert.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Ned is a loyal vassal, and if Robert summons him to defend against an invasion, Ned would definitely do so.

Perhaps if he summoned him. But would he even summon him? We don't know. Stannis, Renly, Tywin, and Cersei might be of the opinion they don't need the Northmen for this, who would probably come too late, anyway.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Viserys isn't all advantages over Aegon. Nobody who knows Viserys seems to like him. Barristan was wary of him even though he'd only known Viserys as a child. And of course Viserys did get himself killed by his supposed ally rather than listening to Illyrio's wise advice to stay in Pentos, so I don't think you can assume his hypothetical wise advisors will win out. You're imagining that Viserys might have some notable military victory early in his campaign, but I see no reason to assume that given that the real Viserys never won any victories and he'd be attacking a more stable kingdom.

Aegon is fantasy Targaryen. Viserys III would be a real one, and even we don't know at this point who is going to make a better king or general.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

It's just Littlefinger who reports that the Crown has no coin, and Tyrion finds his accounts impossible to make sense of. We know of no complaints that the kingdom has been overburdened with taxation during his reign, nor that the Crown has been neglecting its duties. His reign is remembered as a time of mostly peace and plenty.

We know that the Small Council knows the Crown has no coin. Those ideas that Littlefinger hides the king's own treasury from the king and his ministers is ridiculous. Littlefinger is brought later during Robert's reign for his talents in making money - because the king has somehow emptied Aerys II's full treasury and beggared the Crown. Littlefinger is the financial wizard who is supposed to save the Crown from bankruptcy or at least postpone it so that Robert can continue as before. He is not throwing out the king's gold.

That doesn't mean he does not also put a large share of the money he makes for the Crown into his own pockets, but that has nothing to do with Robert's spending habits.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert got along with most people, even near the end. People supported him when Balon rebelled, and the Brotherhood Without Banners (whose second-in-command is one of Robert's drinking buddies) still claim loyalty to him after his death despite him not actually being the guy who ordered them out. Sandor Clegane may scoff at their high regard for him, but most people aren't like Sandor. Renly may join in Littlefinger's jests at Robert's expense, but he's going to defend the Baratheon dynasty against Lannister or Targaryen threats. Stannis already fought the Targaryens on behalf of Robert, and he'd do his duty again.

The Brotherhood thing is a sham, and everybody knows it. It is their way of pretending that they are not just outlaws and thieves. And they stick to the whole kingship thing, not to Robert the person. It is like Robin Hood doing stuff in Richard the Lionheart's name - he is far away and essentially dead, too. It is just a pretext.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert wasn't insane, and didn't insist on undermining a competent Hand out of jealousy of someone running the kingdom better. He is very, very far from Aerys II.

Robert was less cruel than Aerys II, but as a manager he was worse. He had a competent Hand (one assumes), yet he still emptied his treasury. Could very well be the reason why he was reasonably popular was because he was beggaring the Crown with his tourney and the like.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

They had no problem being on the same side against Balon. They warred over Robert's succession, and if Robert was still on the throne that would remove the object of dispute.

Yandel claims Ned and Tywin were there with Robert when he moved against Balon, but it is nowhere said they fought together side by side or the one under the command of the other. Stannis commanded the royal fleet and the Redwynes ships among those, and then later various royal armies landed on different Iron Islands. One imagines the Northmen and the Westermen didn't fight on the same island.

Else, you know, there would be some kind of cameraderie there, some sort of bonding from that campaign, yet there is nothing of that sort in the text at all. Not between Tywin/Jaime and Ned, nor between the Northmen and the Westermen.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The people who actually knew him didn't think so. That's why Jorah says Rhaegar was the last dragon.

Jorah sucks up to Dany. And of course Viserys is not impressive. But a blue-haired boy who should be dead is an utterly empty shell.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Nobody cares about Stannis because he was smashed at the Blackwater and is no longer a threat to the Iron Throne. But this hypothetical takes place during Robert's reign, not after the Stormlanders are depleted in the War of the Five Kings.

The Stormlands didn't suffer that many defeats, all things considered, but as I said I don't expect the Stormlands to rise for a Viserys III under a Lord Renly.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Varys kills him because he's a good man in service of a bad cause, threatening to undo the damage Cersei caused. The lords of the realm respect his level of competence above Cersei's.

No, they respect him having a cock over Cersei only having a cunt. Kevan is not more competent than Cersei. He is perceived as such, but that's not based on any actions. Cersei certainly also makes mistakes, but I don't see any indication that Kevan is more than an adequate man, nothing special.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The Vale Lords wanted to intervene, but didn't because Jon Arryn was dead and Lysa was regent for his heir. If Viserys invades while Jon Arryn is alive, none of that applies.

There are lords there with Targaryen sympathies, possibly more than just the Graftons. And as I said, Jon is a very old man. He might not be around for much longer, especially if he were to lead an army in war. Which he most likely wouldn't do, anyway. He would hand command to somebody else.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Old men have successfully led sides in wars. Even Nymeria Martell did despite not being a warrior herself. Robert does not need to lose the pounds in order to win again.

He has to lose pounds to fit into his armor again, though. He is a walking joke. Robert is no great strategist or anything. His strength was to march fast, do the unexpected/insane. That kind of 'talent' can just as well get you killed than lead you to victory - as it did in the end. He could also have killed that boar, no? But he did not. Rhaegar could have killed him, they could have killed him at Stoney Sept, the knights at Summerhall could have killed, he could gotten an arrow in his face at Gulltown.

He was a lucky guy to live as long as he did, not a smart one.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Nobody talks about Robert the way they did those kings, because he wasn't a nerd. Robert does not have the problem of disloyal vassals that Tytos had, with only Balon Greyjoy temporarily trying to openly defy him.

Sure, he has problems with disloyal vassals, namely the Lannisters and the Starks - who plot behind his back and start to fight in his very capital. And I'm pretty sure somebody must have exploited Robert very well, Stannis and Renly first of all. They got him to grant them Dragonstone and Storm's End, no, something George calls careless generosity.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert's resolution for a quarrel between children was that each should be disciplined by their own parents, which is a perfectly reasonable response to a childish quarrel.

It didn't please either side. And it antagonized both the queen and the new Hand, making Robert's new working relationship with Ned not exactly a good way. That way you groom traitors, not friends.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The news of the Riverlands being raided didn't reach King's Landing until AFTER Robert had already gone hunting and left Ned in charge, if Robert had people to fight that would presumably be more interesting than hunting.

Robert knew that Jaime and Ned's men had killed each other on his very streets, and he knew where Jaime had been going. He is also informed about what Ned ruled in his absence and what the Riverlanders were complaining about. And he did absolutely nothing besides drinking and trying to kill a boar (before he also tried to kill a stag, if I recall correctly).

Don't you have an excuse for Robert not executing Gregor for his attempt to murder Loras Tyrell? That shows what kind of king Robert Baratheon was.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The Blackfyre cause was kept alive by Bittersteel, and the second attempted rebellion was a farce without him. Viserys lacks a Bittersteel.

If Viserys III had invaded Westeros with sellswords he would have had a Bittersteel of his own. Or at least a Harry Strickland.

[frenin]

On 11/3/2019 at 1:45 AM, Lord Varys said:

Because, one assumes, he was not yet looking the part. The Robert in the mid-290s does. Ned is actually shocked by his appearance when he sees him again. This is not the kind of guy people gather around.

 

Ned is shocked by Robert's change but Ned would still follow him to the bitter end, as he indeed does.

And the kind of guy people gather around are the ones capable of inspiring and Robert, fir or fat, is capable of that.

 

On 11/3/2019 at 1:45 AM, Lord Varys said:

That was nine years before 298 AC, and six years before our invasion scenario. Things change as time passes. Ned decided to become Hand to investigate the Arryn murder. Not for Cat and not for Robert.

 

But that's clearly aprove that they can act, coordinately.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 1:45 AM, Lord Varys said:

Aegon is fantasy Targaryen. Viserys III would be a real one, and even we don't know at this point who is going to make a better king or general.

 

We know Viserys being half Aerusis unlikely to be, Aegon is the promising one, Viserys the beggar one.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 1:45 AM, Lord Varys said:

Perhaps if he summoned him. But would he even summon him? We don't know. Stannis, Renly, Tywin, and Cersei might be of the opinion they don't need the Northmen for this, who would probably come too late, anyway.

 

Why would anyone would be on the opinion that more swords aren't needed and unless there is only one battle that decides everything, the Northmen, would arrive just fine.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 1:45 AM, Lord Varys said:

We know that the Small Council knows the Crown has no coin. Those ideas that Littlefinger hides the king's own treasury from the king and his ministers is ridiculous. Littlefinger is brought later during Robert's reign for his talents in making money - because the king has somehow emptied Aerys II's full treasury and beggared the Crown. Littlefinger is the financial wizard who is supposed to save the Crown from bankruptcy or at least postpone it so that Robert can continue as before. He is not throwing out the king's gold.

That doesn't mean he does not also put a large share of the money he makes for the Crown into his own pockets, but that has nothing to do with Robert's spending habits.

No one ever claims that Robert had beggared the crown until LF comes and Tyrions makes clear that LF numbers makes zero sense.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 1:45 AM, Lord Varys said:

Yandel claims Ned and Tywin were there with Robert when he moved against Balon, but it is nowhere said they fought together side by side or the one under the command of the other. Stannis commanded the royal fleet and the Redwynes ships among those, and then later various royal armies landed on different Iron Islands. One imagines the Northmen and the Westermen didn't fight on the same island.

Else, you know, there would be some kind of cameraderie there, some sort of bonding from that campaign, yet there is nothing of that sort in the text at all. Not between Tywin/Jaime and Ned, nor between the Northmen and the Westermen.

Why it would be some sort of camaraderie?? Barri B practically saw Jaime grew and he considers him a prodigy and yet he despises him.

 

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 1:45 AM, Lord Varys said:

Jorah sucks up to Dany. And of course Viserys is not impressive. But a blue-haired boy who should be dead is an utterly empty shell.

 

That's actually very true, I don't find Jorah's comments so appealing when the man only saw once Rhaegar.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 1:45 AM, Lord Varys said:

No, they respect him having a cock over Cersei only having a cunt. Kevan is not more competent than Cersei. He is perceived as such, but that's not based on any actions. Cersei certainly also makes mistakes, but I don't see any indication that Kevan is more than an adequate man, nothing special.

 

They respect him over Devan amd even a man who has never seen him makes clear to Davos that had Kevan been in charge they would not be talking.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 1:45 AM, Lord Varys said:

There are lords there with Targaryen sympathies, possibly more than just the Graftons. And as I said, Jon is a very old man. He might not be around for much longer, especially if he were to lead an army in war. Which he most likely wouldn't do, anyway. He would hand command to somebody else.

 

Who?? The only ones we hear about are the Graftons and the Corbrays and the Corbrays fought fir Robert on the Trident.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 1:45 AM, Lord Varys said:

He has to lose pounds to fit into his armor again, though. He is a walking joke. Robert is no great strategist or anything. His strength was to march fast, do the unexpected/insane. That kind of 'talent' can just as well get you killed than lead you to victory - as it did in the end. He could also have killed that boar, no? But he did not. Rhaegar could have killed him, they could have killed him at Stoney Sept, the knights at Summerhall could have killed, he could gotten an arrow in his face at Gulltown.

He was a lucky guy to live as long as he did, not a smart one.

Who says that Robert is no good strategist??  Robert is bold but that's not to say he's a bad strategist, no one ever claims that.

By that same standards every one still breathing are lucky guys, not smart ones.

Because they could've been killed at any time.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 1:45 AM, Lord Varys said:

Sure, he has problems with disloyal vassals, namely the Lannisters and the Starks - who plot behind his back and start to fight in his very capital. And I'm pretty sure somebody must have exploited Robert very well, Stannis and Renly first of all. They got him to grant them Dragonstone and Storm's End, no, something George calls careless generosity.

 

The Lannisters start plotting behind his backs because it's a matter of survival for them,either Robert dies or they lose everything and the Starks "plot" behind his back to prevent him from dying. And those disloyal vassals aren't disloyal because the man is a fat drunkard anyway.

How can Stannis and Renly exploited Robert?? How they got him to grant them Dragonstone (something Stannis still resents) and Storm's End, We've never have a hint that franting them those seats didn't come from him,rathert hat he was mamipulated into action.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 1:45 AM, Lord Varys said:

It didn't please either side. And it antagonized both the queen and the new Hand, making Robert's new working relationship with Ned not exactly a good way. That way you groom traitors, not friends.

 

Since the Queen was antagonized since their wedding night and the Hand was not going to act against him i don't think he was grooming traitors.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 1:45 AM, Lord Varys said:

Robert knew that Jaime and Ned's men had killed each other on his very streets, and he knew where Jaime had been going. He is also informed about what Ned ruled in his absence and what the Riverlanders were complaining about. And he did absolutely nothing besides drinking and trying to kill a boar (before he also tried to kill a stag, if I recall correctly).

Don't you have an excuse for Robert not executing Gregor for his attempt to murder Loras Tyrell? That shows what kind of king Robert Baratheon was.

Robert commanded Ned to make amends  with Jaime, he knew Jaime had fled the city out of fear and he's informed about some bandit the common folk believe Gregor raided some villages, while already been drunking, he's not informed about a civil war and a private feud.

About the latter, Robert didn't have to execute Gregor,he stop the madness that was all, it might show to you what kind of King Robert is but your bias is not shared by the westerosi.

[FictionIsntReal]

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

He had no way of knowing who would enter the war.

That doesn't mean he expected to fight all the other kingdoms. When Mace thinks another side offers him more advantages, he changes tack.

Quote

Because, one assumes, he was not yet looking the part. The Robert in the mid-290s does. Ned is actually shocked by his appearance when he sees him again. This is not the kind of guy people gather around.

Looks aren't nothing in Westeros, but they aren't everything either. Robert is still basically the same guy most of the realm united behind, even if he's now older and fatter.

Quote

That was nine years before 298 AC, and six years before our invasion scenario. Things change as time passes. Ned decided to become Hand to investigate the Arryn murder. Not for Cat and not for Robert.

He does come and shows himself to be someone Varys can trust to protect Robert from the Lannisters, not someone at odds with the rest of the STAB bloc behind the rebellion. Is it really that so much had changed in the years between the Greyjoy rebellion and Jon Arryn's death or that Ned is more willing to fight alongside Robert against enemies of the realm than he is to serve in King's Landing as Hand?

Quote

Perhaps if he summoned him. But would he even summon him? We don't know. Stannis, Renly, Tywin, and Cersei might be of the opinion they don't need the Northmen for this, who would probably come too late, anyway.

He was summoned against the Greyjoys.

Quote

Aegon is fantasy Targaryen. Viserys III would be a real one, and even we don't know at this point who is going to make a better king or general.

Sometimes the reality turns out to be terrible. We don't know how successful Aegon will be in the future, but he currently has some success to his name. Viserys has none, because he ignored good advice, pissed off his intended allies and got himself killed.

Quote

We know that the Small Council knows the Crown has no coin. Those ideas that Littlefinger hides the king's own treasury from the king and his ministers is ridiculous. Littlefinger is brought later during Robert's reign for his talents in making money - because the king has somehow emptied Aerys II's full treasury and beggared the Crown. Littlefinger is the financial wizard who is supposed to save the Crown from bankruptcy or at least postpone it so that Robert can continue as before. He is not throwing out the king's gold.

Jon Arryn brought Littlefinger to court because he'd done so well in Gulltown. We don't have any indication that the finances were in desperate straits before he came in to save them (we don't know who was Master of Coin between him and Chelsted), instead he just seems like a whiz kid who keeps getting promoted by people who don't actually understand how he's pulled any of his feats off. And he always manages to provide coin when necessary, so nobody complains. And he's not "throwing out" the King's gold, he's using it in ways nobody else understands.

Quote

That doesn't mean he does not also put a large share of the money he makes for the Crown into his own pockets, but that has nothing to do with Robert's spending habits.

As the above link points out, Robert's spending habits just aren't on a large enough scale to explain the Crown's finances.

Quote

The Brotherhood thing is a sham, and everybody knows it. It is their way of pretending that they are not just outlaws and thieves. And they stick to the whole kingship thing, not to Robert the person. It is like Robin Hood doing stuff in Richard the Lionheart's name - he is far away and essentially dead, too. It is just a pretext.

They aren't typical brigands and thieves but instead hang those preying on the smallfolk after giving them trials. And they aren't loyal to the office of "king" but to Robert specifically, which is why they don't side with any of the kings during the war of five kings. The core of the Brotherhood was sent out in mission on behalf of Robert, and they stick true to that mission even when their former enemies have usurped Robert.

Quote

Robert was less cruel than Aerys II, but as a manager he was worse. He had a competent Hand (one assumes), yet he still emptied his treasury. Could very well be the reason why he was reasonably popular was because he was beggaring the Crown with his tourney and the like.

Aerys interfered with Tywin all the time precisely because Tywin was competent, and after he alienated his best Hand replaced him with a lickspittle. Robert is content to let his Hands govern the kingdom for him.

Quote

Yandel claims Ned and Tywin were there with Robert when he moved against Balon, but it is nowhere said they fought together side by side or the one under the command of the other. Stannis commanded the royal fleet and the Redwynes ships among those, and then later various royal armies landed on different Iron Islands. One imagines the Northmen and the Westermen didn't fight on the same island.

So what we know for a fact is that Robert's coalition put down the one attempt at rebellion against him, but based on a complete absence of evidence you are now claiming that the same won't be the case against Viserys?

Quote

Jorah sucks up to Dany. And of course Viserys is not impressive. But a blue-haired boy who should be dead is an utterly empty shell.

An empty shell would be preferable to someone as rotten as Viserys.

Quote

No, they respect him having a cock over Cersei only having a cunt. Kevan is not more competent than Cersei. He is perceived as such, but that's not based on any actions. Cersei certainly also makes mistakes, but I don't see any indication that Kevan is more than an adequate man, nothing special.

"Adequate" puts him well above Cersei. Tyrion predicted that she would botch things, and he was absolutely right.

Quote

There are lords there with Targaryen sympathies, possibly more than just the Graftons. And as I said, Jon is a very old man. He might not be around for much longer, especially if he were to lead an army in war. Which he most likely wouldn't do, anyway. He would hand command to somebody else.

Indeed Jon might, and we have no reason to think his vassals wouldn't do as he asked.

Quote

He has to lose pounds to fit into his armor again, though. He is a walking joke. Robert is no great strategist or anything. His strength was to march fast, do the unexpected/insane. That kind of 'talent' can just as well get you killed than lead you to victory - as it did in the end. He could also have killed that boar, no? But he did not. Rhaegar could have killed him, they could have killed him at Stoney Sept, the knights at Summerhall could have killed, he could gotten an arrow in his face at Gulltown.

Stannis actually says of himself that he was going to steal a page from Robert's book, not that Robert read one. Robert was a natural strategist and won multiple battles even with numerical disadvantages for reasons other than just his own personal prowess in combat. In his one defeat, he didn't insanely get himself and everyone else killed, instead he led an orderly retreat (Tyrion regarded the battle as inconclusive) to come back and win again. Robert fought to the death against Rhaegar at the Trident, when wagering everything was the rebels' best move.

Quote

Sure, he has problems with disloyal vassals, namely the Lannisters and the Starks - who plot behind his back and start to fight in his very capital. And I'm pretty sure somebody must have exploited Robert very well, Stannis and Renly first of all. They got him to grant them Dragonstone and Storm's End, no, something George calls careless generosity.

Cersei and Jaime are extremely disloyal, while Tywin does violate the king's peace by raiding the Riverlands with a deniable asset. The Starks aren't comparable. Ned is working on his behalf and trying to protect him from the Lannisters. Catelyn winds up causing a headache by taking Tyrion prisoner, but that's because she'd been told they were behind Jon Arryn's death and correctly suspected they had hurt Bran and Tyrion discovering her risked the Lannisters finding out about her secret mission to the capital.

Stannis didn't "exploit" Robert to get Dragonstone, as he didn't actually want it. Robert just decided to give him the heir's seat while Renly, too young to be exploiting Robert, got their ancestral castle.

Quote

It didn't please either side. And it antagonized both the queen and the new Hand, making Robert's new working relationship with Ned not exactly a good way. That way you groom traitors, not friends.

That's what a normal parent does, and it didn't cause any treason. Cersei was already treasonous, and Ned remains loyal.

Quote

Robert knew that Jaime and Ned's men had killed each other on his very streets, and he knew where Jaime had been going. He is also informed about what Ned ruled in his absence and what the Riverlanders were complaining about. And he did absolutely nothing besides drinking and trying to kill a boar (before he also tried to kill a stag, if I recall correctly).

You've got some timelines mixed up. Ned resigns his handship, then gets attacked by Jaime, then after he wakes up Robert re-appoints him as Hand and orders Tyrion's release to end the conflict, then he goes hunting, then Ned hears the Riverlanders' complaints and BECAUSE HE'S INJURED sends Beric and Thoros instead of going himself.

Quote

Don't you have an excuse for Robert not executing Gregor for his attempt to murder Loras Tyrell? That shows what kind of king Robert Baratheon was.

Loras wasn't actually injured and Gregor stopped when Robert ordered.

Quote

If Viserys III had invaded Westeros with sellswords he would have had a Bittersteel of his own. Or at least a Harry Strickland.

He would have a Harry Strickland, but Strickland is no Bittersteel.

[Lord Varys]

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

That doesn't mean he expected to fight all the other kingdoms. When Mace thinks another side offers him more advantages, he changes tack.

He was backing Robert's youngest brother. He had every reason to believe that any sane man in the Seven Kingdoms would either declare for Joffrey or Stannis and thus fight them - because they were all the worst kind of of traitors and would-be usurpers there are.

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Looks aren't nothing in Westeros, but they aren't everything either. Robert is still basically the same guy most of the realm united behind, even if he's now older and fatter.

I don't think you can say that. Robert is a huge disappointment to his best friend, who actually considers the possibility that the man might have been in on the Bran thing. Robert is a disgrace for everyone.

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He does come and shows himself to be someone Varys can trust to protect Robert from the Lannisters, not someone at odds with the rest of the STAB bloc behind the rebellion. Is it really that so much had changed in the years between the Greyjoy rebellion and Jon Arryn's death or that Ned is more willing to fight alongside Robert against enemies of the realm than he is to serve in King's Landing as Hand?

Varys just wants to get in Ned's head. He doesn't really care about Robert.

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He was summoned against the Greyjoys.

Yes, but that doesn't mean he has to be summoned in a fight against a Viserys III landing, say, on Cape Wrath or somewhere else on the south-eastern coast of Westeros.

When Robert retook the Iron Islands he was launching an invasion, he did not have to repel one. For the former you can take your time (as they did, in the latter case speed is more important).

And nobody at court aside from, perhaps, Jon would have liked Ned. Not Jaime, not Cersei, not Stannis.

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Sometimes the reality turns out to be terrible. We don't know how successful Aegon will be in the future, but he currently has some success to his name. Viserys has none, because he ignored good advice, pissed off his intended allies and got himself killed.

But not in our scenario. In our scenario Viserys III would be a better version of Aegon. A Targaryen king who doesn't have to prove he is who he says he is.

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Jon Arryn brought Littlefinger to court because he'd done so well in Gulltown. We don't have any indication that the finances were in desperate straits before he came in to save them (we don't know who was Master of Coin between him and Chelsted), instead he just seems like a whiz kid who keeps getting promoted by people who don't actually understand how he's pulled any of his feats off. And he always manages to provide coin when necessary, so nobody complains. And he's not "throwing out" the King's gold, he's using it in ways nobody else understands.

As the above link points out, Robert's spending habits just aren't on a large enough scale to explain the Crown's finances.

I read that, but that's not a good discussion of the topic. George is bad with numbers and there is no proper system to his finances.

Robert's main spending would have taken place long before Littlefinger became Master of Coin (before there are new loans, the treasury has to be emptied). And Littlefinger actually is effective. He did increase the incomes of the Crown at the post he was given in Gulltown. That was not virtual money or some kind of snowball system. Back then reports would have gotten back to Jon Arryn via the treasury staff and the Master of Coin that this Baelish fellow was doing a really good job back at Gulltown.

Again, no argument about the fact that Littlefinger is embezzling - he is. But he has nothing to do with Robert's spending habits. He hides his embezzling behind Robert's spending habits and the overall state of the finances.

He also seems to be selling offices to the highest bidder (many Antler Men owed a lot of money to the Crown, indicating that were Littlefinger's people) and might share in a system Varys set up to pay wages to non-existent royal officials (the dungeon department).

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

They aren't typical brigands and thieves but instead hang those preying on the smallfolk after giving them trials. And they aren't loyal to the office of "king" but to Robert specifically, which is why they don't side with any of the kings during the war of five kings. The core of the Brotherhood was sent out in mission on behalf of Robert, and they stick true to that mission even when their former enemies have usurped Robert.

Robert is a just a chiffre for 'the good king' or 'the just/ideal king' there. They are not loyal to Robert personally, else they would not fight against his son.

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Aerys interfered with Tywin all the time precisely because Tywin was competent, and after he alienated his best Hand replaced him with a lickspittle. Robert is content to let his Hands govern the kingdom for him.

No, he is not. Ned doesn't have a blank check to run the kingdom. He is no Bloodraven (and even he may not have a blank check) nor a Tywin. He is supposed to do the shit Robert does not want to do, but has to go along/do everything that Robert wants to do - which apparently is not just a little bit.

If Jon had been 'governing the kingdom' then Robert would have gotten a small allowance from Jon until such a time as the Crown could afford to finance the king's extravangances.

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

So what we know for a fact is that Robert's coalition put down the one attempt at rebellion against him, but based on a complete absence of evidence you are now claiming that the same won't be the case against Viserys?

As far as we know Hoster and Jon played no part in the Greyjoy thing, despite the fact that Balon attacked the Riverlands.

And we also don't have mentioning of (m)any Westermen aside from Jaime involving themselves in the fighting on the Iron Islands, so perhaps only Tywin himself showed his face there? It would make sense for Yandel to overstate Tywin's involvement in the Greyjoy Rebellion (don't doubt he was there, only doubt he led a massive army of men to the Iron Islands).

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

An empty shell would be preferable to someone as rotten as Viserys.

Nobody knows the guy is supposedly rotten.

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

"Adequate" puts him well above Cersei. Tyrion predicted that she would botch things, and he was absolutely right.

But she did not fuck them up so much, did she? She made some mistakes but even if she had sent troops down to the Reach faster they wouldn't have defeated Euron. Him getting some time didn't get him an advantage he doesn't already have. The guy fucking things up in the Riverlands is Jaime. Some things like Falyse or her refusal to punish the Freys are irritating, but Cat's band would not stop killing Lannisters and Freys even if some Frey scapegoats had been killed. The problem is that she doesn't know what's going on there, just as she has no clues about the Dornish or Ironborn plans.

Aurane Waters was stupid, as was her trust in the High Sparrow and Osney. Using the Faith to destroy Margaery was a better idea than trying to do that herself.

And her attempts to destroy the Tyrells - while motivated by paranoia are, in essence, the right thing to do. We know they killed Joffrey, and we know they would, if given the chance, push her aside or even kill her. Claiming she needs them to defeat her enemies makes no sense if they also number among her (secret) enemies.

If you check things then, in the end, it is the fact that people perceive the woman to take over for Tywin as weak that emboldens them to do something, it is not that she actually is weak or does anything stupid - they start to move even before she has time to do anything.

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Indeed Jon might, and we have no reason to think his vassals wouldn't do as he asked.

We have no particular reason to assume the Vale are good friends of Robert. Some might be, others not. We have no information on that. Just as we have no information on how the Riverlords stand on that.

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Stannis actually says of himself that he was going to steal a page from Robert's book, not that Robert read one. Robert was a natural strategist and won multiple battles even with numerical disadvantages for reasons other than just his own personal prowess in combat. In his one defeat, he didn't insanely get himself and everyone else killed, instead he led an orderly retreat (Tyrion regarded the battle as inconclusive) to come back and win again. Robert fought to the death against Rhaegar at the Trident, when wagering everything was the rebels' best move.

We know he had a loud voice, which is apparently crucial to be a great commander. Aside from that we know he could surprise his enemies and he could inspire people in the midst of battles by leading from the front. And we know he was a great warrior. But we don't know what his actual great accomplishments as a general were, whether his actual battle plans to lure enemies into a trap, to deploy his troops in a certain manner to gain an advantage, etc. were particularly clever, nor whether he actually ever made any such.

The fact that he could organize an ordered retreat after Ashford I'd not count as a great accomplishment.

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Cersei and Jaime are extremely disloyal, while Tywin does violate the king's peace by raiding the Riverlands with a deniable asset. The Starks aren't comparable. Ned is working on his behalf and trying to protect him from the Lannisters. Catelyn winds up causing a headache by taking Tyrion prisoner, but that's because she'd been told they were behind Jon Arryn's death and correctly suspected they had hurt Bran and Tyrion discovering her risked the Lannisters finding out about her secret mission to the capital.

Ned investigates the queen and queen's brothers and, by extension, the king himself without ever so much as telling him anything about that. That counts as plotting in my book. It is not as worse as anything Cersei does, of course, but it is wrong. And it gets pretty worse when Ned refuses to tell Robert everything after Cat took Tyrion.

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Stannis didn't "exploit" Robert to get Dragonstone, as he didn't actually want it. Robert just decided to give him the heir's seat while Renly, too young to be exploiting Robert, got their ancestral castle.

He still profited from his brother's generosity greatly. We don't know when Renly got Storm's End, nor whether he asked for it or not. Could very well be.

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

That's what a normal parent does, and it didn't cause any treason. Cersei was already treasonous, and Ned remains loyal.

If you have to factions who threaten the peace at your court, you either try to make peace between them - or you destroy one of them. Robert instead pampered the Lannisters and Starks and his brothers just as if he wanted to set things up so the Realm would explode the day he died.

There are people who blame Viserys I for not preventing the Dance by not taking a firmer stand on the succession, etc. but Robert is much, much worse. He did not pamper and groom two rival factions at his court, but four, not counting the corrupt officials (Littlefinger and Varys), and the factions away from court (Ironborn and Dornishmen).

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

You've got some timelines mixed up. Ned resigns his handship, then gets attacked by Jaime, then after he wakes up Robert re-appoints him as Hand and orders Tyrion's release to end the conflict, then he goes hunting, then Ned hears the Riverlanders' complaints and BECAUSE HE'S INJURED sends Beric and Thoros instead of going himself.

No, I know the timeline. Might be I could have phrased it better. But you underline my point. Robert reappoints a man his Hand who has just started a personal vendetta with his own brother-in-law while admitting he has also commanded the arrest of his other brother-in-law. That is ridiculous. Instead of throwing the man into a dungeon and telling Lysa and Cat that he wants to see Tyrion alive and well in KL in a week or else he is going to send them Ned's head he actually tells Ned to undo something he has just admitted to have commanded ... and then leaves. That's the very embodiment of not making a choice.

[And, you know, Ned didn't command Catelyn to free Tyrion, did he?]

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Loras wasn't actually injured and Gregor stopped when Robert ordered.

Are you honestly saying that when a guy tries to murder somebody it is okay and there should be no charges, arrest, punishment if the person near murder victim wasn't harmed???

I agree that in this world nobody would give a damn about some noble trying to kill a peasant not succeeding, but we are talking about some landed knight trying to murder the son of the Lord of Highgarden in the front of the king himself. That should have meant Gregor's head, not question about that.

And since we are talking about peasants - we also see Robert's misrule with Mycah. Nothing justifies his murder, and Sandor even outrights admits to Ned that he didn't kill the boy because he was fighting back or anything (a ridiculous excuse, of course, but still an excuse). Even by the old Targaryen laws Mycah would have only lost limbs for striking a prince of the blood, not his life. And since he actually never attacked Joffrey, he shouldn't have been punished at all - which if Robert's ruling of this having been 'a children's quarrel' should have also applied to the butcher's boy.

Sandor should have lost his head for that murder.

27 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He would have a Harry Strickland, but Strickland is no Bittersteel.

I'm not even sure Bittersteel is a Bittersteel if you get my meaning. The man never accomplished anything in his life. He tried and failed and failed and failed.

[Eli Cross]

How big of a sellsword army?  Ten thousand, no.  Fifty thousand, everybody would have jumped to his cause. 

[frenin]

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

He was backing Robert's youngest brother. He had every reason to believe that any sane man in the Seven Kingdoms would either declare for Joffrey or Stannis and thus fight them - because they were all the worst kind of of traitors and would-be usurpers there are.

 

When he decided to back Renly, the Riverlands and the North had already crowned Robb while fighting the Westerlands, bleeding each other to death, and the Vale was withdrawing from the fight. The only wildcards there were the Iron Islands and Dorne, and somehow they thought the latter would join them. He had no reason to believe any sane man would join to fight them when half Westeros had already seceded.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

I don't think you can say that. Robert is a huge disappointment to his best friend, who actually considers the possibility that the man might have been in on the Bran thing. Robert is a disgrace for everyone.

You're projecting what you think about Robert on to every character in Westeros, was Robert dispised in the Stormlands?? The Vale?? the Riverlands?? the Crownlands?? the North?? We know Tywin despised the man.

Ned considers the possibility that he might have a hand because he has seen Robert do things he'd never expect, not because he's a fat drunkard.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

Yes, but that doesn't mean he has to be summoned in a fight against a Viserys III landing, say, on Cape Wrath or somewhere else on the south-eastern coast of Westeros.

When Robert retook the Iron Islands he was launching an invasion, he did not have to repel one. For the former you can take your time (as they did, in the latter case speed is more important).

And nobody at court aside from, perhaps, Jon would have liked Ned. Not Jaime, not Cersei, not Stannis.

Unless Robert don't have common sense, the logic says he'd call Ned.

Speed is important in the latter but that doesn't mean he can't launch an attack while also waiting for reinforcement.

Nobody at court wanted Ned as Hand, certainly not Jaime, not Cersei and not Stannis...

 

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

No, he is not. Ned doesn't have a blank check to run the kingdom. He is no Bloodraven (and even he may not have a blank check) nor a Tywin. He is supposed to do the shit Robert does not want to do, but has to go along/do everything that Robert wants to do - which apparently is not just a little bit.

If Jon had been 'governing the kingdom' then Robert would have gotten a small allowance from Jon until such a time as the Crown could afford to finance the king's extravangances.

The only thing Robert forces Ned to is the Touney and the assasination attempt.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

But not in our scenario. In our scenario Viserys III would be a better version of Aegon. A Targaryen king who doesn't have to prove he is who he says he is.

 

But that's an scenario where people actually care about Viserys.

 

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

As far as we know Hoster and Jon played no part in the Greyjoy thing, despite the fact that Balon attacked the Riverlands.

And we also don't have mentioning of (m)any Westermen aside from Jaime involving themselves in the fighting on the Iron Islands, so perhaps only Tywin himself showed his face there? It would make sense for Yandel to overstate Tywin's involvement in the Greyjoy Rebellion (don't doubt he was there, only doubt he led a massive army of men to the Iron Islands).

Tywin would've let a massive army of men to the Iron Islands, Vic made him look like a fool and i don't think he was forgiving that.

We haven't heard about many Northmen involving themselves either, perhaps Ned only went there with 3k men.

 

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

Nobody knows the guy is supposedly rotten.

 

Is not hard to see that the guy is rotten.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

But she did not fuck them up so much, did she? She made some mistakes but even if she had sent troops down to the Reach faster they wouldn't have defeated Euron. Him getting some time didn't get him an advantage he doesn't already have. The guy fucking things up in the Riverlands is Jaime. Some things like Falyse or her refusal to punish the Freys are irritating, but Cat's band would not stop killing Lannisters and Freys even if some Frey scapegoats had been killed. The problem is that she doesn't know what's going on there, just as she has no clues about the Dornish or Ironborn plans.

Aurane Waters was stupid, as was her trust in the High Sparrow and Osney. Using the Faith to destroy Margaery was a better idea than trying to do that herself.

And her attempts to destroy the Tyrells - while motivated by paranoia are, in essence, the right thing to do. We know they killed Joffrey, and we know they would, if given the chance, push her aside or even kill her. Claiming she needs them to defeat her enemies makes no sense if they also number among her (secret) enemies.

If you check things then, in the end, it is the fact that people perceive the woman to take over for Tywin as weak that emboldens them to do something, it is not that she actually is weak or does anything stupid - they start to move even before she has time to do anything.

She did, not only the aforementioned but she gave Stannis the support of the IB, she fucked everything up.

The only thing Cersei did half well is dealing with imaginary foes, giving the fact that Cersei is warring and the only literal reason they are winning the war is because the Tyrells joined them, alienating the Tyrells when the dust is not cleared is a very stupid decision.

And if Jaime fucked things in the Riverlands, Cersei was the one sending him there because she did not want to see him.

Kevan, Tyrion and Tywin know her and that's why they wanted her as far as power as possible, not because she didn't have a small sausage as Mushroom would say.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

We have no particular reason to assume the Vale are good friends of Robert. Some might be, others not. We have no information on that. Just as we have no information on how the Riverlords stand on that.

 

Really?? The Vale and the Riverlands fought for Robert and Robert grew uo in the Vale,we need to have very particular reasons for the Vale disliking Robert.

 

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

We know he had a loud voice, which is apparently crucial to be a great commander. Aside from that we know he could surprise his enemies and he could inspire people in the midst of battles by leading from the front. And we know he was a great warrior. But we don't know what his actual great accomplishments as a general were, whether his actual battle plans to lure enemies into a trap, to deploy his troops in a certain manner to gain an advantage, etc. were particularly clever, nor whether he actually ever made any such.

The fact that he could organize an ordered retreat after Ashford I'd not count as a great accomplishment.

Then you shoud say that, Robert is seen and regarded as a great commander

On this camp i do agree with you, in Westeros people tend to either overpraise or Martin never show,  we don't know about Robert was good in anything else but being a maverick, just as we don't know what the hell Randyl did to ever deserved such praise, nor we actually know what Tywin and especially Jaime did to be regarded as great commanders. That's just one of Martin things i hope he fix in the future.

 

Organized an ordered retreat is a great accomplishment by everyone.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

Ned investigates the queen and queen's brothers and, by extension, the king himself without ever so much as telling him anything about that. That counts as plotting in my book. It is not as worse as anything Cersei does, of course, but it is wrong. And it gets pretty worse when Ned refuses to tell Robert everything after Cat took Tyrion.

 

That's not plotting, not is he investigation by extension the king, you may say it's wrong, but that's not plotting.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

He still profited from his brother's generosity greatly. We don't know when Renly got Storm's End, nor whether he asked for it or not. Could very well be.

 

That's like saying Davos exploit Stannis, Robert wanted to give them those seats he wasn't forced and one assumes that neither Cersei, not Tywin would be ok with the fact that Robert gave away seats that by rights are Cersei's children's.

 

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

If you have to factions who threaten the peace at your court, you either try to make peace between them - or you destroy one of them. Robert instead pampered the Lannisters and Starks and his brothers just as if he wanted to set things up so the Realm would explode the day he died.

There are people who blame Viserys I for not preventing the Dance by not taking a firmer stand on the succession, etc. but Robert is much, much worse. He did not pamper and groom two rival factions at his court, but four, not counting the corrupt officials (Littlefinger and Varys), and the factions away from court (Ironborn and Dornishmen).

Robert is to blame of many things, the Lannisters and keeping the likes of Slynt is one of them, neither Varys not LF looked or acted against Robert or treasonous on the sight.

So are you saying that Robert not only would've to be a seer (knowing that his brothers would fight for his Throne, when they had not given a sign of wanting it before) but also a mind reader (Cersei is cuckolding him and Ned suspects she and her kin are behind old Jon's murder and Bran accident)

 

Unlike Viserys, who knew both factions and their children wanted the Throne, i don't think Viserys is really to blame on th Dance either he could've done things better but a power grab is a coup is coup, Robert had no way of knowing both his brothers wanted the Throne and both were completely cool with killing each other, he knows that Ned is pissed about Rhaegar's children thing but since both had kept being pals he doesn't know and actually he has a point there, that Cersei has being doing shit that amplifies Ned's hatred.

And even then Ned would've never touch Cersei's kids if they were actually Robert's and neither would Stannis.

 

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

No, I know the timeline. Might be I could have phrased it better. But you underline my point. Robert reappoints a man his Hand who has just started a personal vendetta with his own brother-in-law while admitting he has also commanded the arrest of his other brother-in-law. That is ridiculous. Instead of throwing the man into a dungeon and telling Lysa and Cat that he wants to see Tyrion alive and well in KL in a week or else he is going to send them Ned's head he actually tells Ned to undo something he has just admitted to have commanded ... and then leaves. That's the very embodiment of not making a choice.

[And, you know, Ned didn't command Catelyn to free Tyrion, did he?]

As Robert himself says he's not Aerys, using violence to reassert power is a very insecure move and is a move you do when you're forced to show people who's the top dog.

That path you're suggesting would only make him lose the ties he has with Ned, the Riverlands and the Vale, a very stupid move and it's even dumber considering his threatening Ned over Tyrion...

Robert tells him Ned to make amends with Jaime and orders the release of Tyrion,  he reappoints the man as Hand while also forcing him to accept Dany's fate.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

Are you honestly saying that when a guy tries to murder somebody it is okay and there should be no charges, arrest, punishment if the person near murder victim wasn't harmed???

I agree that in this world nobody would give a damn about some noble trying to kill a peasant not succeeding, but we are talking about some landed knight trying to murder the son of the Lord of Highgarden in the front of the king himself. That should have meant Gregor's head, not question about that.

Is is that there were a crowd of lords and smallfolk crying for Gregor's head because he dared  touch the son of the Lord Paramount of the South but Robert meekly let Gregor go??

Or is just that you think that Gregor should've been punished and therefore you think people in Westeros see it as a sign o weakness?? Because iirc people let it go just as Robert did.

 

 

On 11/3/2019 at 4:17 AM, Lord Varys said:

And since we are talking about peasants - we also see Robert's misrule with Mycah. Nothing justifies his murder, and Sandor even outrights admits to Ned that he didn't kill the boy because he was fighting back or anything (a ridiculous excuse, of course, but still an excuse). Even by the old Targaryen laws Mycah would have only lost limbs for striking a prince of the blood, not his life. And since he actually never attacked Joffrey, he shouldn't have been punished at all - which if Robert's ruling of this having been 'a children's quarrel' should have also applied to the butcher's boy.

Sandor should have lost his head for that murder.

There is nothing that justifies his murder, that's one of Robert's most abhorrents moments, and personally he point where i started to saw him as a monster, but no one cares about a peasant boy.

[The Young Maester]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The fact that he could organize an ordered retreat after Ashford I'd not count as a great accomplishment.

Organising an ordered retreat within enemy territory, requires quick tactical thinking. It’s not easy to retreat in an orderly fashion when the enemy has knights and riders hampering your attempts to escape. 
Roberts gamble into ashford shows that he wasn’t that good of strategist, but the his victories show him as a great tactician.

[FictionIsntReal]

On 11/2/2019 at 10:17 PM, Lord Varys said:

He was backing Robert's youngest brother. He had every reason to believe that any sane man in the Seven Kingdoms would either declare for Joffrey or Stannis and thus fight them - because they were all the worst kind of of traitors and would-be usurpers there are.

Renly declared himself king when Stannis was still secluding himself on Dragonstone and hadn't yet declared for himself. And while you claim that no sane man would do so, many did support Renly as the best alternative to Cersei and Joffrey's regime.

Quote

I don't think you can say that. Robert is a huge disappointment to his best friend, who actually considers the possibility that the man might have been in on the Bran thing. Robert is a disgrace for everyone.

Robert is a disappointment to Ned, but he still commands loyalty.

Quote

Varys just wants to get in Ned's head. He doesn't really care about Robert.

We know from the conversation between Varys and Illyrio that the chaos was unfolding too quickly for their plans. Ned's loyalty to Robert at that point in time was useful for Varys.

Quote

And nobody at court aside from, perhaps, Jon would have liked Ned. Not Jaime, not Cersei, not Stannis.

Stannis resents that Robert is closer to Ned than his own younger brother, but I don't think that would actually be an impediment to the two working together. Stannis' values are actually rather close to Ned's.

Quote

But not in our scenario. In our scenario Viserys III would be a better version of Aegon. A Targaryen king who doesn't have to prove he is who he says he is.
 

The version of Viserys we actually got wasn't a better version of anything, which is why he got himself killed. Nobody is stopping you from imagining an alternate version of Viserys who is a golden god that shoots lightning out of his arse.

Quote

I read that, but that's not a good discussion of the topic. George is bad with numbers and there is no proper system to his finances.

I agree that George is bad with numbers, but he provides us with a lot more evidence that Littlefinger is embezzling funds and obscuring what he's actually doing than that Robert's spending is causing any actual problems.

Quote

Robert's main spending would have taken place long before Littlefinger became Master of Coin (before there are new loans, the treasury has to be emptied).

Where is the evidence for that?

Quote

Again, no argument about the fact that Littlefinger is embezzling - he is. But he has nothing to do with Robert's spending habits. He hides his embezzling behind Robert's spending habits and the overall state of the finances.

I agree that Littlefinger's embezzling and Robert's spending are separate issues, although Littlefinger manages to disguise the former behind the latter. We just get to see the the former is a rather big deal, while the latter actually seems to much be less than what Aerys was spending on large projects that started but came to nothing.

Quote

Robert is a just a chiffre for 'the good king' or 'the just/ideal king' there. They are not loyal to Robert personally, else they would not fight against his son.

They didn't fight against Robert's actual son, they inducted Gendry into their group and knighted him. They continued the mission they'd been given by Robert's Hand even after Robert had been killed by his faithless wife and her incestuous bastard that Robert wanted off the throne was installed. People loyal to Robert didn't support the new regime.

Quote

No, he is not. Ned doesn't have a blank check to run the kingdom. He is no Bloodraven (and even he may not have a blank check) nor a Tywin. He is supposed to do the shit Robert does not want to do, but has to go along/do everything that Robert wants to do - which apparently is not just a little bit.

You're right that he's not a Tywin: Aerys resented Tywin for the respect people gave him for running the kingdom and sought to overrule his decrees out of spite. Robert is on much better terms with his Hands and generally trusts them to do the right thing for him and the kingdom. Robert told Ned "I am planning to make you run the kingdom", and while it may have been partly in jest he was mostly telling the truth. Robert rarely attends council meetings and generally takes a hands-off approach, so it is the exception when he overrules his Hand.

Quote

If Jon had been 'governing the kingdom' then Robert would have gotten a small allowance from Jon until such a time as the Crown could afford to finance the king's extravangances.

Do you actually know that Robert was spending more than a "small allowance" when Jon was Hand?

Quote

As far as we know Hoster and Jon played no part in the Greyjoy thing, despite the fact that Balon attacked the Riverlands.

There was a failed attack on Seagard in which Rodrik Greyjoy was killed and his forces thrown back by Jason Mallister. What we know is that Balon thought Robert's regime was on shaky ground, but Robert was able to call his bannermen and crush the Ironborn. Based on a complete absence of evidence you try to use this to conclude that Robert actually didn't command the loyalty of the men who put him on the throne, including one who continued to serve him as Hand.

Quote

And we also don't have mentioning of (m)any Westermen aside from Jaime involving themselves in the fighting on the Iron Islands, so perhaps only Tywin himself showed his face there? It would make sense for Yandel to overstate Tywin's involvement in the Greyjoy Rebellion (don't doubt he was there, only doubt he led a massive army of men to the Iron Islands).

Gregor Clegane is a Westerman, and Ned remembers him among the the knights that took part.

Quote

Nobody knows the guy is supposedly rotten.

We know it and anyone who meets him soon learns. Illyrio sought to keep him away from his allies until it was time to invade, but Viserys didn't listen and proceeded to get himself killed.

Quote

But she did not fuck them up so much, did she? She made some mistakes but even if she had sent troops down to the Reach faster they wouldn't have defeated Euron. Him getting some time didn't get him an advantage he doesn't already have. The guy fucking things up in the Riverlands is Jaime. Some things like Falyse or her refusal to punish the Freys are irritating, but Cat's band would not stop killing Lannisters and Freys even if some Frey scapegoats had been killed. The problem is that she doesn't know what's going on there, just as she has no clues about the Dornish or Ironborn plans.

Yes, she did. Everything Tyrion, Kevan and Varys said about her handling of the situation is true. Ignoring an Ironborn invasion is how Aerys got further Blackfyre rebellions, although at least in his case it was because Bloodraven was solely focused on a Blackfyre invasion rather than because Cersei is fine with the Reach being raided. Cersei doesn't care to know about anyone's plans, she ignores when people are actually giving her important info.

Quote

Aurane Waters was stupid, as was her trust in the High Sparrow and Osney. Using the Faith to destroy Margaery was a better idea than trying to do that herself.

Arming the Faith created a powerful faction hostile to her. Even assuming you're right, shooting yourself in the toe might be smarter than shooting yourself in the thumb, but both are very stupid. The Tyrell's are the most important allies the Lannisters have, and while it's rational to be on the lookout for any attempt they make to gain power at the expensive of the Lannisters and to try to gain any advantage should conflict come in the future, it's idiotic to immediately alienate them as Cersei does.

Quote

And her attempts to destroy the Tyrells - while motivated by paranoia are, in essence, the right thing to do. We know they killed Joffrey, and we know they would, if given the chance, push her aside or even kill her. Claiming she needs them to defeat her enemies makes no sense if they also number among her (secret) enemies.

We know they and Littlefinger killed Joffrey. Littlefinger wants to cause chaos, along with ingratiating himself with another prominent house, but the Tyrells are actually invested in the stability of the regime they've made a marital alliance with. Tommen could have been an acceptable ruler, but Cersei despises all his positive qualities in contrast with her wretched firstborn. After Joffrey's death it is Cersei rather than the Tyrells who does the most damage to her regime.

Quote

If you check things then, in the end, it is the fact that people perceive the woman to take over for Tywin as weak that emboldens them to do something, it is not that she actually is weak or does anything stupid - they start to move even before she has time to do anything.

No, the High Sparrow arms the Faith because she agrees to it rather than because she's a woman. Aurane Waters steals those dromonds because she gave them to him and then got locked up by the Faith she'd just armed, rather than because she's a woman. Bronn kills one of her allies and seizes the Stokeworth estate because Cersei tried to take him out rather than because she's a woman.

Quote

We have no particular reason to assume the Vale are good friends of Robert. Some might be, others not. We have no information on that. Just as we have no information on how the Riverlords stand on that.

The Vale lords wanted to enter the war against he Lannisters, and only didn't because Jon Arryn's widow ordered them not do. I think we can reasonably guess that the lords would have obeyed Jon Arryn if he'd called their banners on behalf of Robert, just as they had during the rebellion.

Quote

We know he had a loud voice, which is apparently crucial to be a great commander. Aside from that we know he could surprise his enemies and he could inspire people in the midst of battles by leading from the front. And we know he was a great warrior. But we don't know what his actual great accomplishments as a general were, whether his actual battle plans to lure enemies into a trap, to deploy his troops in a certain manner to gain an advantage, etc. were particularly clever, nor whether he actually ever made any such.

His great accomplishments include winning three battles in a single day, and a single "inconclusive" loss against his general track record of victory. Everyone in the story knows he's got a great track record in battle, including his resentful brother Stannis who doesn't think his lack of a loud voice would prevent him from successfully imitating one of Robert's moves. You're the only one who finds this dubious.

Quote

The fact that he could organize an ordered retreat after Ashford I'd not count as a great accomplishment.

An organized retreat was VERY difficult in the pre-modern era, when most battle casualties came from routs. GRRM might not be aware of this, but I think the example suffices to prove that Robert wasn't just some reckless guy who always gambled everything and managed to get lucky each time.

Quote

Ned investigates the queen and queen's brothers and, by extension, the king himself without ever so much as telling him anything about that. That counts as plotting in my book. It is not as worse as anything Cersei does, of course, but it is wrong. And it gets pretty worse when Ned refuses to tell Robert everything after Cat took Tyrion.

Ned was involved in an investigation that had to be kept secret from the Lannisters, and a priori it was wise to try to collect all the facts and make as solid possible a case against them before overtly making a move against them.

Quote

He still profited from his brother's generosity greatly. We don't know when Renly got Storm's End, nor whether he asked for it or not. Could very well be.

So you don't actually have examples of anyone exploiting Robert, just Robert giving a castle each to his brothers because he found himself with three.

Quote

If you have to factions who threaten the peace at your court, you either try to make peace between them - or you destroy one of them. Robert instead pampered the Lannisters and Starks and his brothers just as if he wanted to set things up so the Realm would explode the day he died.

Robert reigned in peace for years because he wasn't a paranoiac always seeking to destroy members of his court like Aerys, which was wise because Robert didn't have centuries of legitimacy behind him and instead rested on the strength of the governing coalition he'd assembled. The realm exploded because Ned and Stannis discovered that Cersei's children were illegitimate.

Quote

There are people who blame Viserys I for not preventing the Dance by not taking a firmer stand on the succession, etc. but Robert is much, much worse. He did not pamper and groom two rival factions at his court, but four, not counting the corrupt officials (Littlefinger and Varys), and the factions away from court (Ironborn and Dornishmen).

Viserys created a succession crisis because there were two opposing precedents in support of each of the factions in his court. The succession crisis after Robert was due to Joffrey's illegitimacy, which he didn't know about and would have regarded as extremely unlikely since everyone other than Targaryens regards incest as an abomination. And having a large number of rival factions can actually be more stable than just having two, since it makes it less likely that one of those factions will have the strength to attempt to dominate the others.

Quote

No, I know the timeline. Might be I could have phrased it better. But you underline my point. Robert reappoints a man his Hand who has just started a personal vendetta with his own brother-in-law while admitting he has also commanded the arrest of his other brother-in-law. That is ridiculous. Instead of throwing the man into a dungeon and telling Lysa and Cat that he wants to see Tyrion alive and well in KL in a week or else he is going to send them Ned's head he actually tells Ned to undo something he has just admitted to have commanded ... and then leaves. That's the very embodiment of not making a choice.

Robert re-appoints a man he regards as best for the job, even if they had recently had a severe disagreement. He orders Tyrion's release in order to defuse the conflict, as that was the reason Jaime attacked the former Hand. Ned hadn't actually done anything to start a "vendetta" against Jaime, as he was only implicated in the arrest of Tyrion. Executing the Lord Paramount of the North is how the Mad King got overthrown, and is a terrible way to incentivize people to obey your summons to King's Landing, especially an ally.

Quote

Are you honestly saying that when a guy tries to murder somebody it is okay and there should be no charges, arrest, punishment if the person near murder victim wasn't harmed???

I agree that in this world nobody would give a damn about some noble trying to kill a peasant not succeeding, but we are talking about some landed knight trying to murder the son of the Lord of Highgarden in the front of the king himself. That should have meant Gregor's head, not question about that.

Under pre-modern systems of law, one often had to pay damages or wergild for the harm one had done. Gregor hasn't actually done any harm, and they don't have a modern criminal code.

Quote

And since we are talking about peasants - we also see Robert's misrule with Mycah. Nothing justifies his murder, and Sandor even outrights admits to Ned that he didn't kill the boy because he was fighting back or anything (a ridiculous excuse, of course, but still an excuse). Even by the old Targaryen laws Mycah would have only lost limbs for striking a prince of the blood, not his life. And since he actually never attacked Joffrey, he shouldn't have been punished at all - which if Robert's ruling of this having been 'a children's quarrel' should have also applied to the butcher's boy.

Sandor should have lost his head for that murder.

Robert doesn't do anything about Mycah, and smallfolk don't normally get to demand the heads of their betters. Beric treats it as a capital crime because defending the smallfolk from nobility, particularly Lannister men at arms, is his primary justification.

Quote

I'm not even sure Bittersteel is a Bittersteel if you get my meaning. The man never accomplished anything in his life. He tried and failed and failed and failed.

He did fail a lot, but he is regarded as having nearly succeeded.

On 11/3/2019 at 1:09 AM, frenin said:

There is nothing that justifies his murder, that's one of Robert's most abhorrents moments, and personally he point where i started to saw him as a monster, but no one cares about a peasant boy.

I don't really think of it as one of "Robert's moments" since he doesn't really have any involvement in it. We learn later that if Jaime had found Arya during the search he would have cut off her hand, and that was solely on Cersei's order not Robert's.

[nyser1]

On 10/31/2019 at 12:20 PM, Mario Seddy said:

What if Viserys landed in westeros during Robert's reign (295 AC) with a sellsword army. We know that there were many houses loyal to the targaryens like house darry, house connignton,house moonton, house tyrell etc. Would they rise for Viserys or would they fight for the Baratheons. 

I think that most of the potentially interested parties would be waiting and watching, unless he has those 40k dothraki and the golden company. Given the year, I think it is more likely that he is quickly defeated before the "loyalists" show their colors.