TWOW in July 2020 seems ever more likely

[Cas Stark]

2 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

In 2015 GRRM was under the pressure to release TWOW before season 6. It was probably pushing him to write a story he was not fully satisfied with. The deadline missed, the pressure gone, I suppose he discarded most of his work. Probably better TWOW will not be this stuff. We don't know where he is now. Last year he was believing he could finish this year. Not the first time we hear that. But maybe the virus is a better incentive than anything else. Better than a joke threat of imprisonment in NZ. But for how long?

With his habit of constantly reworking what he has already written (like Tolkien it seems), I don't understand how he can publish a book. And then work on the next. My feeling why TWOW is taking so long is because he is also working on ADOS and constantly reworking TWOW while ADOS is taking shape. He said he had not started ADOS. But maybe he has a draft or detailed plan of what it will be. Anyway, he seems confident he will finish both.

Sure.  But the question is, by 2015 he had already had 4 years to work on the story, so how did he go so wrong if he did? There are only two answers to the question of why we are at 9 years and no book, he either didn't write at all for many of those years or he has written, discarded and rewritten the story multiple times.  But, even if he threw it all out in 2016, that is still 4 years ago.  Eh, I expect Winds to be a mess if it ever does come out. But, count me among those who does not believe he hits July 2020.

I would be interested in anyone from publishing to give their take on what the financial ramifications would be of releasing something like Winds only in electronic form.  Would that be a massive cut into the profits?  Would it possibly end up being more profitable given that tens of millions of people are home with nothing to do so they might order it now, when they wouldn't have bought it without CO19, and no costs of printing/distribution.  If the book does get finished for release this summer is it financially better to release it electronically w/the virus or wait until things are back to normal.

[BlackLightning]

6 hours ago, Nagini's Neville said:

I think you are confusing something here. The Unkiss was the "much more important lapse in memory" the lion's paw/lion's tooth business set the stage for. And I think it was actually Arya, who misremembered the sword names.

Nope. That doesn't make sense

Arya did, in fact, misremember the name of Joffrey's sword. She called it Lion's Paw instead of Lion's Tooth. At the giftgiving ceremony at Joffrey's wedding, Sansa correctly remembers the names of his swords (Lion's Tooth, Hearteater) when he gets a new sword (Widow's Wail) but she gets the order in which he received them mixed up with each other. Later, in Tyrion's POV chapter of the ill-fated wedding feast, it is implied that Sansa is able to figure out exactly where the Valyrian steel used for Widow's Wail came from; it didn't register with Tyrion quite yet. But that's another topic....

The Unkiss, however, is something different. This cannot be the more important lapse in memory because it completely happens separate and apart from the whole Joffrey's sword business. George Martin references both as a major precursor to a more important lapse in memory. He never came right out and confirmed that Sansa would forget or misremember much more important later. He just said that it would happen again on a much more serious scale.

For all we know, Areo Hotah could find out that Ashara Dayne is alive and that Jon Snow is Rhaegar Targaryen's son by Lyanna Stark but completely forget to tell Prince Doran because all hell has broken loose between Daenerys and Aegon. Or maybe Tyrion figures out that Rhaego is alive somewhere but fails to remember the name of Daenerys' son (or neglects to ask) and so never makes the connection that Rhaego is the son of Daenerys. Or maybe Sansa receives a big warning from Sweetrobin but she can't remember what exactly he said because she was too far preoccupied with Yohn Royce

We don't know how big it will be, when it will happen or who will do it.

[BlackLightning]

3 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

Sure.  But the question is, by 2015 he had already had 4 years to work on the story, so how did he go so wrong if he did? There are only two answers to the question of why we are at 9 years and no book, he either didn't write at all for many of those years or he has written, discarded and rewritten the story multiple times.  But, even if he threw it all out in 2016, that is still 4 years ago.  Eh, I expect Winds to be a mess if it ever does come out. But, count me among those who does not believe he hits July 2020.

I would be interested in anyone from publishing to give their take on what the financial ramifications would be of releasing something like Winds only in electronic form.  Would that be a massive cut into the profits?  Would it possibly end up being more profitable given that tens of millions of people are home with nothing to do so they might order it now, when they wouldn't have bought it without CO19, and no costs of printing/distribution.  If the book does get finished for release this summer is it financially better to release it electronically w/the virus or wait until things are back to normal.

Yep; I'm with you there. He completely threw it out and started over. I think the show might've influenced him, for better or for worse.

July 2020 is unlikely in any case. Coronavirus won't allow the physical publishing and distribution of the book and an electronic release has a good chance of being a disaster. Not only would leaks, thefts, piracy and hacking (case in point: Zoom) be more likely, but the financial ramifications would be big. And there's a good chance that it won't even make that much of a wave and/or get a fair shake marketing-wise.

I say wait until the publishers, translators and distributors can get back to the offices. Because not only do I doubt that they are "essential" business but I doubt they have the supplies and wherewithal to publish it electronically from home. They'd likely have to get more IT people involved and you know what they say: too many cooks spoil the soup.

[Lady Rhodes]

8 hours ago, Nagini's Neville said:

I think you are confusing something here. The Unkiss was the "much more important lapse in memory" the lion's paw/lion's tooth business set the stage for. And I think it was actually Arya, who misremembered the sword names.

Ah, this was my understanding as well.

[Lady Rhodes]

7 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

In 2015 GRRM was under the pressure to release TWOW before season 6. It was probably pushing him to write a story he was not fully satisfied with. The deadline missed, the pressure gone, I suppose he discarded most of his work. Probably better TWOW will not be this stuff. We don't know where he is now. Last year he was believing he could finish this year. Not the first time we hear that. But maybe the virus is a better incentive than anything else. Better than a joke threat of imprisonment in NZ. But for how long?

With his habit of constantly reworking what he has already written (like Tolkien it seems), I don't understand how he can publish a book. And then work on the next. My feeling why TWOW is taking so long is because he is also working on ADOS and constantly reworking TWOW while ADOS is taking shape. He said he had not started ADOS. But maybe he has a draft or detailed plan of what it will be. Anyway, he seems confident he will finish both.

I would agree that writing Dream and reworking Winds with Dream in mind are different things. There is something to be said about being conscientious and making sure he doesn’t write himself into a corner. 
 

 

[HexMachina]

1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

Yep; I'm with you there. He completely threw it out and started over. I think the show might've influenced him, for better or for worse.

July 2020 is unlikely in any case. Coronavirus won't allow the physical publishing and distribution of the book and an electronic release has a good chance of being a disaster. Not only would leaks, thefts, piracy and hacking (case in point: Zoom) be more likely, but the financial ramifications would be big. And there's a good chance that it won't even make that much of a wave and/or get a fair shake marketing-wise. 

I say wait until the publishers, translators and distributors can get back to the offices. Because not only do I doubt that they are "essential" business but I doubt they have the supplies and wherewithal to publish it electronically from home. They'd likely have to get more IT people involved and you know what they say: too many cooks spoil the soup.

Not sure why this makes piracy etc any more likely since the ebooks already release simultaneously with the physical books. Removing the physical books shouldn't impact on levels of leaks, theft, piracy etc. 

@Cas Stark not a publisher but it would surely impact a bit - I know some people who just flat out won't even consider reading ebooks, some people who can't read very well on screens etc. I don't think it would be a huge impact but I really couldn't say with any certainty.

 

[Nagini's Neville]

1 minute ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Ah, this was my understanding as well.

Yeah, I think GRRM just said Sansa instead of Arya by accident. He was asked about Lion's tooth... and then said, that wasn't a mistake by him (because he sometimes makes mistakes), but intentional to set the stage for what happens in in Storm - the Unkiss. And for that he'll eventually give us an explanation, because he has said "this will eventually mean something"

That's how I took it, not that Sansa will keep misremembering things.

[BalerionTheCat]

5 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

Sure.  But the question is, by 2015 he had already had 4 years to work on the story, so how did he go so wrong if he did?

I don't think he did much between the 150 something pages he had at the end of ADWD and early 2015. He never had time enough to write something useful. And 4 years after... Yes, but he was shaping 2 books, the end of a very very complex story. Not too long IMHO. And he was still having other projects.

5 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

But, count me among those who does not believe he hits July 2020.

Yeah. I don't know how long the virus will last. I'm not sure it will pen GRRM long enough to finish Winds.

1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

I think the show might've influenced him, for better or for worse.

I don't think he would change something because the show spoiled it. Or the show used his story and it didn't work. They made changes. It didn't work. But it wasn't GRRM's and he doesn't have to make changes himself. It's just he had new ideas along the way.

[Lady Rhodes]

2 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

For all we know, Areo Hotah could find out that Ashara Dayne is alive and that Jon Snow is Rhaegar Targaryen's son by Lyanna Stark

I have suggested in the past that this will happen while he is chasing Darkstar.

[QhorinQuarterhand]

13 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

In 2015 GRRM was under the pressure to release TWOW before season 6. It was probably pushing him to write a story he was not fully satisfied with. The deadline missed, the pressure gone, I suppose he discarded most of his work. Probably better TWOW will not be this stuff. We don't know where he is now. Last year he was believing he could finish this year. Not the first time we hear that. But maybe the virus is a better incentive than anything else. Better than a joke threat of imprisonment in NZ. But for how long?

With his habit of constantly reworking what he has already written (like Tolkien it seems), I don't understand how he can publish a book. And then work on the next. My feeling why TWOW is taking so long is because he is also working on ADOS and constantly reworking TWOW while ADOS is taking shape. He said he had not started ADOS. But maybe he has a draft or detailed plan of what it will be. Anyway, he seems confident he will finish both.

It really wouldn't surprise me if GRRM is currently working on like 2500 pages of TWOW material that he is whittling down to TWOW: Part 1 and Part 2, like 1,000 pages each. It was 2018 when he said he was being pressured to split TWOW. I think he also is writing into ADOS material so that he doesn't accidentally wreck what he wants to do in ADOS by making something permanent that he shouldn't have by publishing TWOW. I think TWOW material and ADOS material each take up about 2000 pages. There is ALOT of ground left to cover. 

[QhorinQuarterhand]

12 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

Sure.  But the question is, by 2015 he had already had 4 years to work on the story, so how did he go so wrong if he did? There are only two answers to the question of why we are at 9 years and no book, he either didn't write at all for many of those years or he has written, discarded and rewritten the story multiple times.  But, even if he threw it all out in 2016, that is still 4 years ago.  Eh, I expect Winds to be a mess if it ever does come out. But, count me among those who does not believe he hits July 2020.

I would be interested in anyone from publishing to give their take on what the financial ramifications would be of releasing something like Winds only in electronic form.  Would that be a massive cut into the profits?  Would it possibly end up being more profitable given that tens of millions of people are home with nothing to do so they might order it now, when they wouldn't have bought it without CO19, and no costs of printing/distribution.  If the book does get finished for release this summer is it financially better to release it electronically w/the virus or wait until things are back to normal.

It should be somewhere on his NotABlog years ago where he said he didn't write for over a year, maybe a year and a half after delivering ADWD. 

[Nevets]

I have always interpreted his statement to mean that he would have a completed manuscript ready for delivery to his publisher by Worldcon.  If he's able to do that, I can see a release date this year, even with the virus.

I see no chance of an actual release by July or August.  Even if he turned it in tomorrow, it would be cutting it close in normal times, and these aren't normal times.

[Lady Rhodes]

8 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

It really wouldn't surprise me if GRRM is currently working on like 2500 pages of TWOW material that he is whittling down to TWOW: Part 1 and Part 2, like 1,000 pages each. It was 2018 when he said he was being pressured to split TWOW. I think he also is writing into ADOS material so that he doesn't accidentally wreck what he wants to do in ADOS by making something permanent that he shouldn't have by publishing TWOW. I think TWOW material and ADOS material each take up about 2000 pages. There is ALOT of ground left to cover. 

This sounds plausible 

[Jekse]

On 4/3/2020 at 10:41 PM, BlackLightning said:

The one thing that can unite the feuding Umber brothers is probably their love and respect for Eddard Stark and his "forgotten" children Arya and Rickon....but especially Rickon.

I don't think there's anything to unite. We hear about the Umbers having a normal relationship up until ADWD when all of the sudden they hate each other. My guess is sometime after the Red Wedding they came together to plan things and feigned their hate for each other. 

[Ser Gareth]

On 3/31/2020 at 12:40 PM, kissdbyfire said:

The con hasn't been cancelled, it's on and will be the first ever virtual WC.

https://conzealand.nz/blog/2020/03/25/conzealand-is-going-virtual

So basically, it's cancelled and morphed into something different.  Either way, he has his get out of jail free card.

[kissdbyfire]

1 minute ago, Ser Gareth said:

So basically, it's cancelled and morphed into something different.  Either way, he has his get out of jail free card.

No, the whole point of going virtual is to avoid cancelling it. 

But did you really take that “you can have me arrested” (paraphrasing) seriously?

[Cas Stark]

50 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

No, the whole point of going virtual is to avoid cancelling it. 

But did you really take that “you can have me arrested” (paraphrasing) seriously?

Why else would he say it if he hadn't, at the time, like all the times before, thought he would have the book done by this summer?  I realize he is a troll for the ages, but IMO, yes, he believed when he said this that he would have the book out by July.  

[BlackLightning]

On 4/4/2020 at 5:51 PM, Lady Rhodes said:

I have suggested in the past that this will happen while he is chasing Darkstar.

Cool.

But since we are talking memory lapses, Areo could forget the name of Rhaegar and Lyanna's child or mix up Jon Snow and Aegon

[Deathkiwi]

Just for comparison Steven Erikson announced on his official Facebook page on 29^th February 2020 that he had finished writing his next novel The God Is Not Willing. He said that he would spend a few days undertaking a read through with some light editing before submitting the manuscript to his agents and publishers. 

Subsequently having received the manuscript his publishers (Tor Books) have announced the book will be released on 9^th November 2021.

I don’t know how long it usually takes a publisher to complete the process of preparing a book for publishing before it goes on sale. It’s also possible that different publishing houses take more or less time than Tor Books.

My guess would be that if GRRM finished TWOW manuscript by his own deadline of July this year it is unlikely that the book will be released until 2021.

[kissdbyfire]

31 minutes ago, Deathkiwi said:

Just for comparison Steven Erikson announced on his official Facebook page on 29^th February 2020 that he had finished writing his next novel The God Is Not Willing. He said that he would spend a few days undertaking a read through with some light editing before submitting the manuscript to his agents and publishers. 

Subsequently having received the manuscript his publishers (Tor Books) have announced the book will be released on 9^th November 2021.

I don’t know how long it usually takes a publisher to complete the process of preparing a book for publishing before it goes on sale. It’s also possible that different publishing houses take more or less time than Tor Books.

My guess would be that if GRRM finished TWOW manuscript by his own deadline of July this year it is unlikely that the book will be released until 2021.

 

Martin announced he’d finished ADwD on April 27 2011, and the book was out sometime in July 2011 iirc.