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TWOW in July 2020 seems ever more likely


Alyn Oakenfist

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29 minutes ago, Deathkiwi said:

Just for comparison Steven Erikson announced on his official Facebook page on 29th February 2020 that he had finished writing his next novel The God Is Not Willing. He said that he would spend a few days undertaking a read through with some light editing before submitting the manuscript to his agents and publishers. 

Subsequently having received the manuscript his publishers (Tor Books) have announced the book will be released on 9th November 2021.

I don’t know how long it usually takes a publisher to complete the process of preparing a book for publishing before it goes on sale. It’s also possible that different publishing houses take more or less time than Tor Books.

My guess would be that if GRRM finished TWOW manuscript by his own deadline of July this year it is unlikely that the book will be released until 2021.

 

They could for sure publish it quite soon after GRRM is finished with it. When GRRM still tried to get out TWOW in time for the show, I think his publishers promised too basically put it out there immediately after finishing (I think within a two month period, if I remember correctly) TWOW doesn't really need any advertisement. But yeah, I guess it depend on the publishers, how they think they can make the most money, but also maybe GRRM's wishes. Maybe he'll want it out as quickly as possible, maybe he'll think a couple of more months aren't really important after all this time. Either way I really don't think it will be out in July, no matter what he said about it. He also said no more deadlines.

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14 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Martin announced he’d finished ADwD on April 27 2011, and the book was out sometime in July 2011 iirc. 

Yea, that might have been the fastest I've ever seen a book published, from when it was finished. I mean that's especially true when you consider the huge length of that book, compared to most novels.

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On 4/7/2020 at 1:05 AM, kissdbyfire said:

No, the whole point of going virtual is to avoid cancelling it. 

But did you really take that “you can have me arrested” (paraphrasing) seriously?

That's like saying the Premier League isn't cancelled because they're going to finish it off playing FIFA on the Xbox instead.  It's completely different.

I never take GRRM seriously anymore.

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On 4/7/2020 at 1:57 AM, Cas Stark said:

Why else would he say it if he hadn't, at the time, like all the times before, thought he would have the book done by this summer?  I realize he is a troll for the ages, but IMO, yes, he believed when he said this that he would have the book out by July.  

Was it published by then or that he'd have the story written by then?

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9 hours ago, sifth said:

Yea, that might have been the fastest I've ever seen a book published, from when it was finished. I mean that's especially true when you consider the huge length of that book, compared to most novels.

Won't happen this time with COVID-19 and I don't think the demand is there to warrant it either.  ADWD sales were expected to ride high on the crest of the TV show wave.  That's past now.  I doubt the demand for TWOW will be anywhere near as high.

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23 hours ago, Ser Gareth said:

Was it published by then or that he'd have the story written by then?

I'm not the oc but if I recall Martin said he'd have the book in hand during the World Con, so published by then.

Here:

As for finishing my book… I tell you this — if I don’t have THE WINDS OF WINTER in hand when I arrive in New Zealand for worldcon, you have here my formal written permission to imprison me in a small cabin on White Island, overlooking that lake of sulfuric acid, until I’m done. Just so long as the acrid fumes do not screw up my old DOS word processor, I’ll be fine.

A couple of months ago I asked here when it had to be finished to be published in July and we agreed it would have to be around now, April.

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Honestly, I always saw the Unkiss as a kind of premonition. George did say that all the Starks kids have some modicum of warging abilities (someone somewhere has the quote for this). Seeing as non-magical Jaime Lannister has had a number of prophetic/magical dreams, I don't think it's impossible that Sansa could have a vision or two herself.

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11 hours ago, Lady Anna said:

A couple of months ago I asked here when it had to be finished to be published in July and we agreed it would have to be around now, April.

I think his implication was that he would have finished the manuscript in July, not a published novel. 

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4 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

And as a result there were many errors in the 1st print of ADWD.

Really, what errors? I honestly don't remember any major mistakes when I first read the book.

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Not just spelling and grammar. Check your ADwD copies, especially the most bug-fixed ones, whether they still have this:

Quote

 

A Dance with Dragons - The King’s Prize

One hundred leagues from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell. Three hundred miles as the raven flies. Fifteen days. The fifteenth day of the march came and went, and they had crossed less than half the distance. A trail of broken wayns and frozen corpses stretched back behind them, buried beneath the blowing snow. The sun and moon and stars had been gone so long that Asha was starting to wonder whether she had dreamed them.

...

A Dance with Dragons - The Sacrifice

That did not shock her. Almost all of their big destriers had failed, including Massey’s own. Most of their palfreys were gone as well. Even the garrons of the northmen were faltering for want of fodder. But what did they need horses for? Stannis was no longer marching anywhere. The sun and moon and stars had been gone so long that Asha was starting to wonder whether she had dreamed them.

 

 

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The first UK printing of ADWD had a completely erroneous cover blurb and also the wrong maps in it, which was fun.

On 4/4/2020 at 4:54 PM, Cas Stark said:

I would be interested in anyone from publishing to give their take on what the financial ramifications would be of releasing something like Winds only in electronic form.  Would that be a massive cut into the profits?  Would it possibly end up being more profitable given that tens of millions of people are home with nothing to do so they might order it now, when they wouldn't have bought it without CO19, and no costs of printing/distribution.  If the book does get finished for release this summer is it financially better to release it electronically w/the virus or wait until things are back to normal.

Fairly consistently for the past five or six years, ebooks have held firm at around 20% of global market sales. Physical still makes up the overwhelming majority of sales. In fact, it's gone backwards in recent years with the ebook market in the United States shrinking from 22% to 18% by the end of 2018.

I'm sure plenty of people would make an exception for TWoW, but the relatively normal, casual readers of the book would hold off in their droves for the physical edition, impacting the bottom line.

On 4/10/2020 at 9:57 PM, Deathkiwi said:

Just for comparison Steven Erikson announced on his official Facebook page on 29th February 2020 that he had finished writing his next novel The God Is Not Willing. He said that he would spend a few days undertaking a read through with some light editing before submitting the manuscript to his agents and publishers. 

Subsequently having received the manuscript his publishers (Tor Books) have announced the book will be released on 9th November 2021.

I don’t know how long it usually takes a publisher to complete the process of preparing a book for publishing before it goes on sale. It’s also possible that different publishing houses take more or less time than Tor Books.

My guess would be that if GRRM finished TWOW manuscript by his own deadline of July this year it is unlikely that the book will be released until 2021.

GRRM is one of the biggest-selling novelists on the planet right now. As they did with ADWD, the publishers will move heaven and earth to have the book on shelves three months after turn-in of the final manuscript.

Steven Erikson used to be moderate fantasy seller and, after his last book bombed, is now a low-selling author (cumulatively he's done quite well over the years, of course, but it's a drop in the ocean compared to GRRM's). Tor and Transworld are both being very cautious with the new book as they see it as relaunch, the success or failure of which may determine his long-term career trajectory.

On 4/11/2020 at 8:07 AM, QhorinQuarterhand said:

ADWD was published within 3-4 months of publication. 

I highly doubt Erikson is in a place where he has to accept his publisher holding his book up for almost 2 years. It seems likely he consented for some reason. 

Nope. Forge of Darkness did middlingly and Fall of Light bombed massively on release. It's why Walk in Shadow was put on indefinite hold and Erikson was asked by his publishers to move up the Karsa Orlong trilogy, which they believed would have greater financial success. The core Malazan series has done well and remains a strong legacy seller, but Erikson's viability as an ongoing fantasy author is in some debate after the unexpected failure of the Kharkanas trilogy.

To put it another way, Erikson's last two new Malazan novels have sold significantly more poorly than Ian Esslemont's Path to Ascendancy Malazan trilogy.

On 4/11/2020 at 10:57 PM, Ser Gareth said:

Won't happen this time with COVID-19 and I don't think the demand is there to warrant it either.  ADWD sales were expected to ride high on the crest of the TV show wave.  That's past now.  I doubt the demand for TWOW will be anywhere near as high.

GoT Season 1 did okay, but not great, and it was the only thing on air when ADWD launched. The TV show helped boost sales of the entire series, but ADWD was only moderately helped by Season 1 of the TV show.

Since then, ASoIaF has sold an additional ~80 million copies, GRRM has become one of the biggest-selling authors in the world (and among living fantasy authors, only outsold by Rowling and King; also Meyer and Collins if you count YA) and the critical drubbing of Season 8 of GoT seems to have dramatically increased demand for the "real" ending. TWoW will comfortably be one of the biggest-selling novels of whatever year it comes out in, possibly the biggest.

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On 4/15/2020 at 3:57 PM, Werthead said:

The first UK printing of ADWD had a completely erroneous cover blurb and also the wrong maps in it, which was fun.

Fairly consistently for the past five or six years, ebooks have held firm at around 20% of global market sales. Physical still makes up the overwhelming majority of sales. In fact, it's gone backwards in recent years with the ebook market in the United States shrinking from 22% to 18% by the end of 2018.

I'm sure plenty of people would make an exception for TWoW, but the relatively normal, casual readers of the book would hold off in their droves for the physical edition, impacting the bottom line.

GRRM is one of the biggest-selling novelists on the planet right now. As they did with ADWD, the publishers will move heaven and earth to have the book on shelves three months after turn-in of the final manuscript.

Steven Erikson used to be moderate fantasy seller and, after his last book bombed, is now a low-selling author (cumulatively he's done quite well over the years, of course, but it's a drop in the ocean compared to GRRM's). Tor and Transworld are both being very cautious with the new book as they see it as relaunch, the success or failure of which may determine his long-term career trajectory.

Nope. Forge of Darkness did middlingly and Fall of Light bombed massively on release. It's why Walk in Shadow was put on indefinite hold and Erikson was asked by his publishers to move up the Karsa Orlong trilogy, which they believed would have greater financial success. The core Malazan series has done well and remains a strong legacy seller, but Erikson's viability as an ongoing fantasy author is in some debate after the unexpected failure of the Kharkanas trilogy.

To put it another way, Erikson's last two new Malazan novels have sold significantly more poorly than Ian Esslemont's Path to Ascendancy Malazan trilogy.

GoT Season 1 did okay, but not great, and it was the only thing on air when ADWD launched. The TV show helped boost sales of the entire series, but ADWD was only moderately helped by Season 1 of the TV show.

Since then, ASoIaF has sold an additional ~80 million copies, GRRM has become one of the biggest-selling authors in the world (and among living fantasy authors, only outsold by Rowling and King; also Meyer and Collins if you count YA) and the critical drubbing of Season 8 of GoT seems to have dramatically increased demand for the "real" ending. TWoW will comfortably be one of the biggest-selling novels of whatever year it comes out in, possibly the biggest.

Thanks for all the insights.

With the quote below from a couple of weeks back, it seems that it is likely that GRRM will be able to finish TWOW by July. Do you think it is possible to get TWOW this year if he's done?

My take is that Random House probably want a sure cash cow to boost their stock and balance sheet.

Am I too hopeful? 

Quote

If there is a silver lining in these clouds, this will give me more time to finish WINDS OF WINTER.   I continue to write every day, up here in my mountain fastness.


https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2020/04/02/no-fooling/

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

Thanks for all the insights.

With the quote below from a couple of weeks back, it seems that it is likely that GRRM will be able to finish TWOW by July. Do you think it is possible to get TWOW this year if he's done?

My take is that Random House probably want a sure cash cow to boost their stock and balance sheet.

Am I too hopeful? 

I wouldn't read anything into the quote. In both 2014 and 2015 GRRM was convinced he could finish the book before the end of the year and was wrong in both cases (rather obviously), and was using similarly, very hopeful language to now. 

If GRRM finished the book in July, sure, the book could be on shelves in October, and if he finished in August they could get it out in November. Any later than that and they'll hit the Christmas blackout (traditionally big novels are not published in December or January, which are dominated by Christmas sales instead and new releases can get swamped) and would probably then wait until February.

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