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Alyn Oakenfist

TWOW in July 2020 seems ever more likely

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2 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

It is May 10, meaning the window for a release in July is almost, but not quite, closed. 

It's been closed for a while now. GRRM announced Dance four months before it was released, with a very cryptic picture of a dead King Kong. 

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14 minutes ago, Jekse said:

It's been closed for a while now. GRRM announced Dance four months before it was released, with a very cryptic picture of a dead King Kong. 

For some reason I thought it took only two months between when the book was 'finished' and producing the hard copies.

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Posted (edited)

Martin announced completion of Dance April 27, w/ the dead giant monkey photo b/c of previous posts about the monkey on his back etc. The book was out July 12. So ~ 2 1/2 months.

Edited by kissdbyfire

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7 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

It is May 10, meaning the window for a release in July is almost, but not quite, closed. 

The window for an announcement in July is still open, though.

I mean, it's a long shot, but no need to archive this thread just yet.

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4 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Martin announced completion of Dance April 27, w/ the dead giant monkey photo b/c of previous posts about the monkey on his back etc. The book was out July 12. So ~ 2 1/2 months.

Probably longer now with all the corona restrictions. Are publishers even open atm? 

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3 hours ago, Dot Com said:

Probably longer now with all the corona restrictions. Are publishers even open atm? 

Just because of Corona, an early 2021 release is looking more realistic. This would be a terrible time to release books...when there are tons of fans who literally don't have access to buying it.

Then going by Werthead, December and January are pretty much a publication blackout because of Christmas shopping. 

So I think the most realistic date we can look for TWOW is 2/1/2021 at the earliest.

 

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28 minutes ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Just because of Corona, an early 2021 release is looking more realistic. This would be a terrible time to release books...when there are tons of fans who literally don't have access to buying it.

Then going by Werthead, December and January are pretty much a publication blackout because of Christmas shopping. 

So I think the most realistic date we can look for TWOW is 2/1/2021 at the earliest.

 

I think it is the oposit. 

Between ebooks and home delivery this time is the best to release books because of the quarentine. People have more time to read it. 

Afterwards will be much worse. Between money problems and lack of time to make up for all this lost time people will be too busy to invest in books and stuff like that

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Corona does offer George an interesting situation. He could finish TWOW during lockdown. When it wouldn't make sense to publish or tour. If that happens he could end up working on Book 7 for multiple months before releasing and touring for TWOW.

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1 minute ago, divica said:

I think it is the oposit. 

Between ebooks and home delivery this time is the best to release books because of the quarentine. People have more time to read it. 

Afterwards will be much worse. Between money problems and lack of time to make up for all this lost time people will be too busy to invest in books and stuff like that

Well he can't take advantage of today's situation because at minimum it takes 2 1/2 months from delivery to publication. Who knows what the Corona situation will be in August if he delivers TWOW tomorrow.

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On 5/11/2020 at 4:39 AM, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Corona does offer George an interesting situation. He could finish TWOW during lockdown. When it wouldn't make sense to publish or tour. If that happens he could end up working on Book 7 for multiple months before releasing and touring for TWOW.

Speaking of which, I don't really understand the whole "cabin in the mountains" situation. Supposedly, he only goes there when he is in the finishing stages of writing, but he has been there since November, long before the pandemic. Has he been trying to finish the book for that long? 

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On 5/13/2020 at 12:26 PM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Speaking of which, I don't really understand the whole "cabin in the mountains" situation. Supposedly, he only goes there when he is in the finishing stages of writing, but he has been there since November, long before the pandemic. Has he been trying to finish the book for that long? 

George has several reasons to want to finish ASAP. Winds is one of the most anticipated books in the world. I think he went to the cabin with the intent of finishing as soon as he can, just work basically every day until it is done. I'm not entirely convinced he saw an end in sight at the time. But it is an easy assumption to make, it had already been over 8 years since Dance by the time he went up to the cabin. 

It's possible this cabin visit and it's timing were exactly what he had in mind when he made that "guarantee" about delivering Winds this summer. Regardless of how long the quarantine goes, I think George plans to be in the cabin until he is done. This cabin visit is by far the biggest commitment George has shown to TWOW since he released ADWD. Besides this it's difficult to place him in front of his computer for very long at all since he delivered Dance without also knowing that during that time he was editing or writing other books, doing a bunch of stuff for shows and other things and visiting his theatre when his calendar actually shows he was in Santa Fe. Between April 2011 and November 2019 I highly doubt we can reasonably say he was writing Winds for more than 10% of those days. Not to mention he probably didn't write for more than a few hours most of those days. 

But now he is holed up in a cabin working on Winds everyday? That is a huge change. And I find it highly encouraging. 

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19 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Besides this it's difficult to place him in front of his computer for very long at all since he delivered Dance without also knowing that during that time he was editing or writing other books, doing a bunch of stuff for shows and other things and visiting his theatre when his calendar actually shows he was in Santa Fe. Between April 2011 and November 2019 I highly doubt we can reasonably say he was writing Winds for more than 10% of those days.

That's a pretty ludicrous number, plucked from the air on the basis of nothing.

Besides, we know for a fact that GRRM did all of these other things while writing the first three books of the series, as well. In fact he did all of that and more that he has since dropped. It's not GRRM's commitments that have changed, nor are they the reason for the delays on the last three books. To think so is to ignore the evidence.

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41 minutes ago, mormont said:

That's a pretty ludicrous number, plucked from the air on the basis of nothing.

Besides, we know for a fact that GRRM did all of these other things while writing the first three books of the series, as well. In fact he did all of that and more that he has since dropped. It's not GRRM's commitments that have changed, nor are they the reason for the delays on the last three books. To think so is to ignore the evidence.

Sure it's a guess, but no it isn't based on nothing. Feel free to check his calendar so you can come back and say it was actually 15%, but meh, that's not a giant difference. The man can pump out a bunch of pages when he sits down to write, but he has ALOT of trouble sitting down. Until he went up to the cabin. 

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It seems pretty obvious to me that GRRM books 1-4 did not have anything close to the level of fame he did after GOT began airing, so it would seem impossible to me that the number of commitments and projects did not increase by a large amount....tremendously more media interest, numerous new projects like the theater, new TV scrips, many, many more things to take him away from writing than before the show.  

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Sure it's a guess, but no it isn't based on nothing. Feel free to check his calendar so you can come back and say it was actually 15%, but meh, that's not a giant difference. The man can pump out a bunch of pages when he sits down to write, but he has ALOT of trouble sitting down. Until he went up to the cabin. 

I find it really funny that people know what George is doing with all of his time. Seriously, we know NOTHING about the man or what he does with his time, or how much he does/doesn't write, except for news about interviews (etc.) and stuff he shares on his Not A Blog.

I love it how we (yes, I'm including myself) think we actually know these celebrities we tend to worship, when we actually know nothing about them except for the books/movies/songs they produce and a few lines in an article here and there.

I'm not putting anybody down, because I do it myswlf.

Edit to add: @QhorinQuarterhand. I am not picking on you, so please forgive me. I am speaking in general. Your post was the most recent, and I did not necessarily need to quote it. Although I was reapknding to your post, it was not necessarily just your post, but to everyone (myself included) who thinks they have George's schedule nailed down, etc.

Edited by Travis

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4 minutes ago, Travis said:

I find it really funny that people know what George is doing with all of his time. Seriously, we know NOTHING about the man or what he does with his time, or how much he does/doesn't write, except for news about interviews (etc.) and stuff he shares on his Not A Blog.

I love it how we (yes, I'm including myself) think we actually know these celebrities we tend to worship, when we actually know nothing about them except for the books/movies/songs they produce and a few lines in an article here and there.

I'm not putting anybody down, because I do it myswlf.

Well, GRRM has given out a fair amount of information, much of his schedule and calendar was public, he usually also blogged about his trips and meetings, so if someone wanted to figure out how many days he was available to write, since he only writes at his house in Santa Fe or the cabin, it would not be that difficult to come up with a baseline.  

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Posted (edited)

My point wasn't that George actually was only in Sante Fe for 10% of the days between Dance and the cabin, or that he only wrote Winds 10% of those days. It was that boy howdy, has he been working on several other projects all at once even when he is home. For literally almost all of those days between April 2011 and November 2019. Not to mention days where he was busy with his theatre, or his wolf sanctuary, or something else when he was in Sante Fe. The point being besides the fact we can't place him in front of his computer writing Winds for hardly any of the time frame, we also have to acknowledge that he was extremely distracted with several other projects almost literally all of those days. 

And his travel/road days take up a whopping chunk of these days...and he famously never writes while traveling. Which means all of these days are a 0% for the calculation.

Not to mention we know from his own words that he didn't write a single word for Winds for about a year and a half after delivering ADWD. So whatever % you figure starts with 0% on the first like 500 days of the count.

Edited by QhorinQuarterhand

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1 minute ago, Cas Stark said:

Well, GRRM has given out a fair amount of information, much of his schedule and calendar was public, he usually also blogged about his trips and meetings, so if someone wanted to figure out how many days he was available to write, since he only writes at his house in Santa Fe or the cabin, it would not be that difficult to come up with a baseline.  

I understand what you are saying. I really do. I just think we would be remiss to take him at his word on everything he post, or to believe everything that is written about him/his schedule.

I say a lot of things about myself, what I'm doing or what I plan to do. Much of it turns out not to be true. Not that I was lying or trying to mislead people, but sometimes shit just happens, or I just simply changed my mind and didn't broacast it.

I really understand where you, and so many others, are coming from. I really do. I just think we are being fools when we get calculators out and do all kinds of arithmetic to determine where he should be at in his writing process. Neither writing, nor life in general, work that way.

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3 minutes ago, Travis said:

I understand what you are saying. I really do. I just think we would be remiss to take him at his word on everything he post, or to believe everything that is written about him/his schedule.

I say a lot of things about myself, what I'm doing or what I plan to do. Much of it turns out not to be true. Not that I was lying or trying to mislead people, but sometimes shit just happens, or I just simply changed my mind and didn't broacast it.

I really understand where you, and so many others, are coming from. I really do. I just think we are being fools when we get calculators out and do all kinds of arithmetic to determine where he should be at in his writing process. Neither writing, nor life in general, work that way.

Well, yes, obviously GRRM cannot be relied on since he said for years and years that the show would never outpace the books.  And his last statement on a delivery date for Winds, July 2020 will soon be another milestone that has gone by the wayside. 

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