TWOW in July 2020 seems ever more likely

[MissM]

3 hours ago, Makk said:

It's tricky to read too much into what he is saying because he doesn't write the entire book chronologically. He has said that he writes multiple chapters for the same character in a row so he is "in character" while he is writing. It is possible that Arya was left until later and the events happen earlier in the book than we believe. I recall the original Mercy chapter was written a long time ago, pushed back into Winds, and then updated after Dance was published. It doesn't sound like we will get a release date in the next couple of months, which is what I was hoping for, but at least it sounds like it is currently going well. I'm happy to hear about any updates no matter how vague. 

Yes he's been writing Arya chapters for this new book since 2012. (Mercy dates back to 2004 at least)

Seems to imply he is writing new Arya chapters this week.

Next week he goes back to Braavos to write/edit material. This implies whatever he is currently writing this week is non-Braavos Arya related. 

[Alyn Oakenfist]

18 minutes ago, MissM said:

Yes he's been writing Arya chapters for this new book since 2012. (Mercy dates back to 2004 at least)

Seems to imply he is writing new Arya chapters this week.

Next week he goes back to Braavos to write/edit material. This implies whatever he is currently writing this week is non-Braavos Arya related. 

Maybe it implies he finished the first draft and is now in the process of rewriting/polishing it?

[MissM]

20 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Maybe it implies he finished the first draft and is now in the process of rewriting/polishing it?

The way he ended his blog with "Arya is calling" seems to imply that's who he is currently writing this week. That she is about to kill someone might also imply it is something he has yet to write in a non-Braavos location.

Quote

"I am spending long hours every day on THE WINDS OF WINTER, and making steady progress." 

 

But he says he goes back to Braavos next week to rewrite/polish/maybe write something new. 

[QhorinQuarterhand]

18 hours ago, Jekse said:

https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2020/06/23/writing-reading-writing/

I’m really surprised he’s writing a Barristan chapter this far into production, I expected him to die in the Battle of Mereen

The Red Wedding was the last chapter he wrote for ASOS.

[QhorinQuarterhand]

18 hours ago, Loras said:

As much as George tells us not to parse his words - there are a few pieces of interesting information in his post.

He speaks about visiting Braavos next week, but mentions that Arya is calling implying that he is going to write about her today.  Does this confirm that at some point in Winds, Arya will be leaving Braavos, as many have speculated?  Is his visit back to Braavos next week tidying up aspects of Arya's 'Winds' arc?

He speaks about having completed three 'new' chapters recently before telling us the viewpoints that he has been spending some time with recently.  Hopefully this means the chapters are completely new and not the 'Dance' chapters finally being completed.  This could mean that Barristan, Tyrion, or Asha receive new chapters after the ones that we already know about?  I'm clutching at straws here...

I think this blog post adds fuel to the speculation/theories that Winds will be published in Hardback in two volumes.

Goerge even mentions that Winds will be a big book. I like the thought more and more that TWOW will be released as 2 books that total 2500-3000 MS pages. Basically either AGOT+ASOS or ASOS+ADWD in size. 

[QhorinQuarterhand]

15 hours ago, mgreyjoy69 said:

Yeah, at least, he seems to work fast, one chapter yesterday, an another one three days ago, an another one last week. We have a clear idea of his efficiency and it looks correct.

Except that says nothing of how long it took him to write those chapters.

[QhorinQuarterhand]

12 hours ago, divica said:

But with covid his side projects are on hold and he is focused on winds. 

The whole post seems to say that he is writing at a fast pace and he doesn t want to stop for now. That is pretty positive. Almost as positive as when he said he wanted to have winds when he visited the world con... 

It's disheartening that considering he has been in his cabin for like 6 months, 9 years into the wait for TWOW, having recently completed 3 chapters, the best estimate he can give is he hopes TWOW is published a vague 6-18 months from now? 

I suppose at least that adds even more fuel to the speculation that Winds will be published as 2 huge books.

[Kyll.Ing.]

9 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Edit: It is encouraging that he spends hours every day working on Winds. But still the best he can say is he hopes Winds is published 15 months from now?

This is what I found a little strange too. Five whole years ago, he thought he could have the book done by October that year. Then in August, he realized that wouldn't work, but a deadline extension until New Year's would be sufficient. That was in 2015. Closer to the release of ADWD than to the present day. He's had more time to write TWoW after that December 31 deadline than he had before it. I really wonder how much material has been left on the writing room floor here.

[BalerionTheCat]

4 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Maybe it implies he finished the first draft and is now in the process of rewriting/polishing it?

He is not polishing. It is not near done. He would not say: "I still have a long way to go" and "next year, when I hope that both Covid-19 and THE WINDS OF WINTER will be done"

30 minutes ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

This is what I found a little strange too. Five whole years ago, he thought he could have the book done by October that year.

It was another book, with a deadline imposed by the show. IMO he trashed most of it, written under the pressure.

[QhorinQuarterhand]

34 minutes ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

This is what I found a little strange too. Five whole years ago, he thought he could have the book done by October that year. Then in August, he realized that wouldn't work, but a deadline extension until New Year's would be sufficient. That was in 2015. Closer to the release of ADWD than to the present day. He's had more time to write TWoW after that December 31 deadline than he had before it. I really wonder how much material has been left on the writing room floor here.

The most optimism I can maintain right now is that TWOW will be released as two books totalling 2500+ MS pages. An epic amount of new material for us. 

In all honesty it would be an absolute DISASTER if he takes 10+ years (his new best hope is 10 years 4 months) to deliver only an ADWD sized book and ASOIAF officially expands to 8 books.

[QhorinQuarterhand]

6 minutes ago, BalerionTheCat said:

He is not polishing. It is not near done. He would not say: "I still have a long way to go" and "next year, when I hope that both Covid-19 and THE WINDS OF WINTER will be done"

It was another book, with a deadline imposed by the show. IMO he trashed most of it, written under the pressure.

And to be clear about this, he said he now hopes to be done by the time the World Sciene Fiction Convention starts in 2021. So his new self goal is to deliver TWOW by August 25th 2021.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/79th_World_Science_Fiction_Convention

 

[rotting sea cow]

2 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Goerge even mentions that Winds will be a big book. I like the thought more and more that TWOW will be released as 2 books that total 2500-3000 MS pages. Basically either AGOT+ASOS or ASOS+ADWD in size. 

I've been saying that for a while. He has repeatedly said "two more books".  The only way to do that and reach some key plot lines is writing a very long TWOW book, which can only be released as two volumes.  

If he manages that, I tend to think that ADOS might be shorter.

[Bael's Bastard]

I hope they go with a two volume book now if the other option is him having to write another book before ADOS after this.

[QhorinQuarterhand]

10 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I hope they go with a two volume book now if the other option is him having to write another book before ADOS after this.

The 2nd book of Winds would be the "another book before ADOS". Unless ADOS also splits and he gives a new title to the first half and makes ADOS book 9.

It would be epic if ASOIAF ends up being 8-9 books. I want the extra pages, the extra time with the characters. It's the wait between books that sucks.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

1 hour ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

It would be epic if ASOIAF ends up being 8-9 books. I want the extra pages, the extra time with the characters. It's the wait between books that sucks.

So let's quantify what 9 books would mean... Presuming TWOW comes next year and then after that he manages to pump out books once every 5 years (and that's very unlikely given his writing pacing, but for the sake of argument and given that TWOW is probably going to be the hardest one to write) this still gives out him finishing in 2031. When he's 82... And that's being optimistic. Simple fact is a 7 book story is the only way we're probably ever going to see him finish the damn thing.

[Lord Varys]

TWoW is never going to be conceived consciously as a two-volume book. It might be released that way if there were conceptual reasons (say, a large climax like the two battles that should have been in ADwD) to wrap up the book in a satisfying manner.

But then we would likely talk about, say, 2,000 manuscript pages or so, not 3,000 (which would mean two volumes the size of ADwD and ASoS.

They would throw out the book as soon as it has enough pages and points where it makes sense to end them. They did that with ADwD, too.

There is a very low chance that George is still rewriting Battle of Meereen chapters. Two Barristan chapters for that were already finished, and depending on the number of Tyrion and Victarion chapters Barristan 3 could already be a post-battle chapter.

Overall, he writes chronologically by POV, meaning not all plots move forward in the same pace, but he doesn't intentionally write a later chapter and then earlier ones - although it happens that puts a chapter between two others, moves them around in the overall chronology, etc.

[divica]

2 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

The most optimism I can maintain right now is that TWOW will be released as two books totalling 2500+ MS pages. An epic amount of new material for us. 

In all honesty it would be an absolute DISASTER if he takes 10+ years (his new best hope is 10 years 4 months) to deliver only an ADWD sized book and ASOIAF officially expands to 8 books.

I agree that would be the worst possible scenario. And not forget the hundreds of manuscript pages from adwd and affc that he pushed into twow.

25 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

So let's quantify what 9 books would mean... Presuming TWOW comes next year and then after that he manages to pump out books once every 5 years (and that's very unlikely given his writing pacing, but for the sake of argument and given that TWOW is probably going to be the hardest one to write) this still gives out him finishing in 2031. When he's 82... And that's being optimistic. Simple fact is a 7 book story is the only way we're probably ever going to see him finish the damn thing.

They meant that he will release 2 books now (winds being a 2 volume book). 

So that he onle has to release 1 more book to finish the story after this

[divica]

2 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

And to be clear about this, he said he now hopes to be done by the time the World Sciene Fiction Convention starts in 2021. So his new self goal is to deliver TWOW by August 25th 2021.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/79th_World_Science_Fiction_Convention

 

Doesn t mean he might not deliver winds much earlier. 

Honestly, if he doesn't finish it before is other projects are restarted after this covid break then we can forget about the book. He will be too occupied bringing his other projects up to date to write the book... 

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

All in all, no book this year, basically?

[divica]

Just now, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

All in all, no book this year, basically?

No book in the short term future. 

I wouldn t disregard him finishing until december if he stays in quarentine