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Alyn Oakenfist

TWOW in July 2020 seems ever more likely

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There is no way GRRM will finish in 2 books, or at all. Somewhere along the way he forgot how to do plot. Coupled with having no competent editor telling him no or putting fire under his ass, he won't get anywhere with the story.

We've had 2 Arianne sample chapters and she is still nowhere near fAegon. 2 Tyrion sample chapters and he still isn't anywhere near Dany or doing anything of note. And exactly that is the problem. He forgot how to do plot. So much time and book pages wasted in the last few books on just GRRM indulging himself.

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Just out of curiosity.  Suppose that GRRM cannot finish the series, and we only get one more book.  What plot point are you most looking forward to in The Winds of Winter that is likely to be resolved in that book?

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34 minutes ago, Rubicante said:

Just out of curiosity.  Suppose that GRRM cannot finish the series, and we only get one more book.  What plot point are you most looking forward to in The Winds of Winter that is likely to be resolved in that book?

Off the top of my head:

1. How Dany obtains the allegiance of  the Dothraki

2. How Jon is "resurrected".

3. Winterfell battle with Stannis result and subsequent Winterfell conflicts.

4. Results of battle of Meereen.

5. What characters end up allied with Dany.

6. Dany's next plan after she returns to Meereen.

7. Signs that Dany is starting to become "darker" (or not).

8. Results of Arianne meeting fAegon.

9 Results of Euran's attack in the West and his future plan of operations.

10. A clearer picture of what is going on with Arya.

11. Lady Stoneheart's future revenge on the Frey's. 

12. The beginning of stirrings of the Others beyond the Wall. 

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1 hour ago, Rubicante said:

Just out of curiosity.  Suppose that GRRM cannot finish the series, and we only get one more book.  What plot point are you most looking forward to in The Winds of Winter that is likely to be resolved in that book?

Great question. 

What I'm personally most excited for is the Oldtown story, Sam, Euron, Sarella, Glass candles, Aeron etc...
Also what's going on with the Umbers, it's pretty clear to me that Hother and Mors are up to something which they're keeping quiet from Stannis. 
And finally getting to see what's happening with Victarion and the Horn would be awesome as well

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27 minutes ago, DisneyDoc2425 said:

Off the top of my head:

1. How Dany obtains the allegiance of  the Dothraki

2. How Jon is "resurrected".

3. Winterfell battle with Stannis result and subsequent Winterfell conflicts.

4. Results of battle of Meereen.

5. What characters end up allied with Dany.

6. Dany's next plan after she returns to Meereen.

7. Signs that Dany is starting to become "darker" (or not).

8. Results of Arianne meeting fAegon.

9 Results of Euran's attack in the West and his future plan of operations.

10. A clearer picture of what is going on with Arya.

11. Lady Stoneheart's future revenge on the Frey's. 

12. The beginning of stirrings of the Others beyond the Wall. 

All good suggestions.  I'd add in the Vale.  Does LF succeed in mainge Sansa his partner in crime?  Oh, and what happened to Marillion (who apparently will reappear after we thought he had been finished off).

And, is there a bloodbath at Riverrun?

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I'm so mentally divorced from the story that hardly anything on that list is of interest to me at this point, I guess I would be most interested in what happens with Lady Stoneheart and how Arya gets back to Westeros. 

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On 3/19/2020 at 1:14 AM, AlienCarnivore said:

Thanks for pointing that out. That all but guarantees he's been in his cabin finishing up the book. 

I wouldn't get your hopes up.  He set a deadline for his trip to New Zealand, which is now almost cancelled.  So the pressure is off him to hit that deadline.

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3 hours ago, Ser Gareth said:

I wouldn't get your hopes up.  He set a deadline for his trip to New Zealand, which is now almost cancelled.  So the pressure is off him to hit that deadline.

The con hasn't been cancelled, it's on and will be the first ever virtual WC.

https://conzealand.nz/blog/2020/03/25/conzealand-is-going-virtual

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Just now, Cas Stark said:

Do you think Winds will be out by July? 

Did I say that? I was merely pointing out that WC hasn’t been cancelled, as the person I quoted stated. I always took the whole “you can have me arrested” thing as a sort of joke between Martin and whoever he was talking to when he said that. 

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On 5/29/2019 at 9:46 AM, TOM of the North said:

''As for finishing my book… I fear that New Zealand would distract me entirely too much.   Best leave me here in Westeros for the nonce.   But I tell you this — if I don’t have THE WINDS OF WINTER in hand when I arrive in New Zealand for worldcon, you have here my formal written permission to imprison me in a small cabin on White Island, overlooking that lake of sulfuric acid, until I’m done.  ''- GRR Martin.(Worldcon New Zealand ,July 29, 2020)

Too bad, the conditions he set stipulate that he has to arrive in New Zealand for the permission to be effective.

...I guess this is one creative way for the powers that be to extend the deadline for Martin. He obviously has friends in really high places.

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I have seen it theorized that George finished Winds years ago, and has spent the time since then obsessively editing and re-writing it. This is one of those reasons why I think George desperately needs a hug and for someone to tell him that he needs to stop stressing out about trying to make everything perfect. No matter how it turns out, there are people who are going to love it and people who are going to hate. But no matter what, we're definitely not going to stop reading and talking about it.

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11 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I have seen it theorized that George finished Winds years ago, and has spent the time since then obsessively editing and re-writing it. This is one of those reasons why I think George desperately needs a hug and for someone to tell him that he needs to stop stressing out about trying to make everything perfect. No matter how it turns out, there are people who are going to love it and people who are going to hate. But no matter what, we're definitely not going to stop reading and talking about it.

I think he threw the old, original copy of Winds away.

While I agree that someone needs to show George TLC and good ol' fashioned encouragement, I also do think that George actually made a big mistake in writing Winds that either made Winds unreadable, flat-out bad or that ruined any chance for a masterful, coherent ending in Dream and that he had to rewrite the whole thing from scratch.

To be fair, George has been rewriting this story for ages. It was originally supposed to be a trilogy remember; Arya, Jon and Tyrion were in a love triangle, Jaime and Cersei were combined into one character, Catelyn went beyond the Wall with Bran and Daenerys was supposed to be the ruling Queen of Westeros when the Others attacked.

Then we had the 5 year gap issue. Then we had the Meereenese Knot. And now there's this.

 

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4 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

I think he threw the old, original copy of Winds away.

While I agree that someone needs to show George TLC and good ol' fashioned encouragement, I also do think that George actually made a big mistake in writing Winds that either made Winds unreadable, flat-out bad or that ruined any chance for a masterful, coherent ending in Dream and that he had to rewrite the whole thing from scratch.

To be fair, George has been rewriting this story for ages. It was originally supposed to be a trilogy remember; Arya, Jon and Tyrion were in a love triangle, Jaime and Cersei were combined into one character, Catelyn went beyond the Wall with Bran and Daenerys was supposed to be the ruling Queen of Westeros when the Others attacked.

Then we had the 5 year gap issue. Then we had the Meereenese Knot. And now there's this.

 

I'm actually a little puzzled as to what took AFFC so long. George said that it took about a year to ditch the five year gap, and then a little bit longer to split the book in half. But after that, the story is very straightforward. None of the magical characters that George says he finds the most challenging to write--Jon, Dany, Bran--are in AFFC, and I think that if George had been a less established writer, his editor probably would have made him condense the Sam and Brienne chapters quite a bit. So the only reason I can figure that it took so many years was probably due to his own perfectionism.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/1/2020 at 7:24 AM, The Bard of Banefort said:

I'm actually a little puzzled as to what took AFFC so long. George said that it took about a year to ditch the five year gap, and then a little bit longer to split the book in half. But after that, the story is very straightforward. None of the magical characters that George says he finds the most challenging to write--Jon, Dany, Bran--are in AFFC, and I think that if George had been a less established writer, his editor probably would have made him condense the Sam and Brienne chapters quite a bit. So the only reason I can figure that it took so many years was probably due to his own perfectionism.

True, AFFC's story is relatively straightforward. But I think it took so long because of the continuity. Some of the chapters he wrote from 2000-2005 weren't in AFFC or Dance. So he was essentialy working three books at the same time. It's also noteworthy that he spend a lot of this time thinking about the timeline and story structure, like with the five-year gap. 

Edited by Jekse

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On 3/31/2020 at 4:49 PM, kissdbyfire said:

Did I say that?

He was asking you personally. 

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36 minutes ago, Jekse said:

He was asking you personally. 

Huh? No idea what you mean.

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45 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Huh? No idea what you mean.

I think she means @Cas Stark wanted to know, if you personally believe TWOT will be out in July? But I feel like your previous answer indicates NO, you don't lol

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1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Huh? No idea what you mean.

It's not a difficult concept.

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Its almost a moot point.  It is April 2.  The now virtual Worldcon starts in 4 months.  The odds that GRRM has a book out, assuming it wouldn't be printed anyway due to COV19, but it could be released electronically, are about 10/1.  

I also believe he must have rewritten huge amounts of Winds since 2015, but that bodes ill to me, since the longer he works on a book, the more, if past books are to be used as a guide, the book loses focus.  

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