What was the biggest mistake/butterfly effect in ASOIAF history?

[Lluewhyn]

14 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I think this is a possibility at best. I only recall one instance where she changes (in her own mind) what has happened & it certainly wasn't suppressing anything. What do you think she has suppressed? 

 

The obvious one you're probably thinking of is the Unkiss. I would argue that the she's somewhat suppressing Petyr's nature and the meaning of Lysa's confession, because fully acknowledging it means that she acknowledges what kind of monster she's reliant upon for her own survival. Presumably, she will eventually address this issue and manage to turn the tables on Littlefinger.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

3 minutes ago, Lluewhyn said:

The obvious one you're probably thinking of is the Unkiss. I would argue that the she's somewhat suppressing Petyr's nature and the meaning of Lysa's confession, because fully acknowledging it means that she acknowledges what kind of monster she's reliant upon for her own survival. Presumably, she will eventually address this issue and manage to turn the tables on Littlefinger.

Yes I was speaking of the Unkiss. I can see that being a possibility with the Petyr/Lysa situation but I just don't see her having a "habit" of suppressing memories, especially where Joffrey is concerned. 

[The Bard of Banefort]

After re-reading the Dance, one of the biggest mistakes from that war was the decision to to arrest the dragonseeds. It alienated Daemon and Corlys from Rhaenyra, and cost her three dragon-riders. I believe that decision sealed her fate.

[Arthur Peres]

1 hour ago, Elegant Woes said:

@Arthur Peres Based on her personality and in what kind of society she lives in Sansa's actions in AGOT is very realistic. In order to understand Sansa you need to keep in mind that she's a noble woman. When project your modern world view on her you ignore the nuance to Sansa as a character in AGOT. And more importantly Sansa makes a habit about suppressing memories of traumatic events in order to cope. You need to read between the lines when you read a Sansa chapter, especially in AGOT. Once you do that you can see that Sansa is straight up terrified of Joffrey. She knows deep down that he is a monster, but at that time she wasn't ready to face that just yet, because as far as Sansa knows she is still has to marry Joffrey. That's why she convinces herself that Joffrey is her dream prince. She's not a silly little girl who is dumb, but a child stuck in an abusive relationship. Looking from this perspective how can you not feel any sympathy for Sansa's situation?

Well Sansa had no fear of Joffrey until he arrested and behead her father, she uses Cersei as confessor because she wanted to be close to him. 

The Lady event is not realistic at all. Sansa is naive? sure, dumb? cleary, but she is also spoiled , proud and easily to anger. We see the events through the eyes of Ned, so we cannot know what Sansa though in the moment, but she cleary saw Cersei calling for the death of Lady. 

The queen raised her voice. “A hundred golden dragons to the man who brings me its skin!”

“A costly pelt,” Robert grumbled. “I want no part of this, woman. You can damn well buy your furs with Lannister gold.”

The queen regarded him coolly. “I had not thought you so niggardly. The king I’d thought to wed would have laid a wolfskin across my bed before the sun went down.”

Robert’s face darkened with anger. “That would be a fine trick, without a wolf.”

“We have a wolf,” Cersei Lannister said

That was when Sansa finally seemed to comprehend. Her eyes were frightened as they went to her father. “He doesn’t mean Lady, does he?” She saw the truth on his face. “No,” she said. “No, not Lady, Lady didn’t bite anybody, she’s good . . . ”

Simpathy for Sansa? sure, in Clash when she is a hostage being abused over nothing, it's hard to read that, but in AGOT she is just a spoiled brat, blaming her sister for her own mistakes.

[Davjos]

The first thing that popped into my mind was Ned refusing to send Loras to deal with the Mountain instead of Beric. The Lannister-Tyrel alliance is likely prevented, which means Stannis taking KL is likely or at least a 50/50. This alone would change a lot. The Tyrels actively fighting against the Lannisters could lead to a Marge-Robb marriage-> No RW-> Robb retaking WF or taking KL etc. 

[X-Buster]

31 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

she cleary saw Cersei calling for the death of Lady. 

This alone should have told Sansa what she needed to know about Cersei and Joffrey.  But no, she had her head filled with King Joffrey and Queen Sansa.  Visions of unearned and undeserved grandeur filled her head.  I will temper this by pointing that there are far worse people in those pages.  Arya and Jon are worse.  I don't hate Sansa but it makes me question the sensibilities of a few members on this forum who believe she is fit material to be queen.  She can marry a landed knight and I think that would be a reasonable and fair ending for Sansa. 

[Ser Leftwich]

I think it was when Pate the Old had cheese instead of bread for lunch, it allowed Aegon the Conqueror's success.

[Hugorfonics]

4 hours ago, Lluewhyn said:

I would argue that the she's somewhat suppressing Petyr's nature and the meaning of Lysa's confession, because fully acknowledging it means that she acknowledges what kind of monster she's reliant upon for her own survival. Presumably, she will eventually address this issue and manage to turn the tables on Littlefinger.

Nah, you wouldn't fare well in that argument. For however naive or stupid she was, shes not anymore.

Quote

He is serving me lies as well, Sansa realized. They were comforting lies, though, and she thought them kindly meant. A lie is not so bad if it is kindly meant. If only she believed them…

The things her aunt had said just before she fell still troubled Sansa greatly. “Ravings,” Petyr called them. “My wife was mad, you saw that for yourself.” And so she had. All I did was build a snow castle, and she meant to push me out the Moon Door. Petyr saved me. He loved my mother well, and…

And her? How could she doubt it? He had saved her.

He saved Alayne, his daughter, a voice within her whispered. But she was Sansa too… and sometimes it seemed to her that the Lord Protector was two people as well. He was Petyr, her protector, warm and funny and gentle… but he was also Littlefinger, the lord she’d known at King’s Landing, smiling slyly and stroking his beard as he whispered in Queen Cersei’s ear. And Littlefinger was no friend of hers. When Joff had her beaten, the Imp defended her, not Littlefinger. When the mob sought to rape her, the Hound carried her to safety, not Littlefinger. When the Lannisters wed her to Tyrion against her will, Ser Garlan the Gallant gave her comfort, not Littlefinger. Littlefinger never lifted so much as his little finger for her.

Except to get me out. He did that for me. I thought it was Ser Dontos, my poor old drunken Florian, but it was Petyr all the while. Littlefinger was only a mask he had to wear. Only sometimes Sansa found it hard to tell where the man ended and the mask began. Littlefinger and Lord Petyr looked so very much alike. She would have fled them both, perhaps, but there was nowhere for her to go. Winterfell was burned and desolate, Bran and Rickon dead and cold. Robb had been betrayed and murdered at the Twins, along with their lady mother. Tyrion had been put to death for killing Joffrey, and if she ever returned to King’s Landing the queen would have her head as well. The aunt she’d hoped would keep her safe had tried to murder her instead. Her uncle Edmure was a captive of the Freys, while her great-uncle the Blackfish was under siege at Riverrun. I have no place but here, Sansa thought miserably, and no true friend but Petyr.

Its a complicated situation, but Sansas not in the dark. (Except for Tyrion being alive)