U.S. Politics: Attaquer son cul orange!

[Jace, Extat]

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Not over yet, but looking good for Democrats in KY governor race.  Up 32k votes with 90 percent precincts in.

Is it an Emmit Brickman election? Why are they voting now?

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, James Arryn said:

Another factor I would mention: studies show that conservatives are primarily motivated by fear, liberals by anger. Neither of these are sustainable at their extremes, but lower levels of fear are much more sustainable than lower levels of anger. Trump in particular emphasizes this distinction by virtue of exhausting liberal anger to the point where many kind of check out, while very few conservatives become distanced from their fears.

Fear also tends to engage coping mechanisms better than anger, meaning angry people are less likely to be cooperative with other angry people just because they're both angry at the same thing, but people sharing similar sources of fear will generally be more cooperative with one another below panic level states. 

And, lastly, fear translates to authoritarianism much much better than anger. Frightened people will follow someone who tells them where to go a lot more than angry people.

This sounds pretty bshyty in face of how the rethugs behave and talk -- it's rage and hate that drives them.

[Jace, Extat]

Oh, and Bevin is going to win in KY

[James Arryn]

58 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I have to mildly push back against your edited material.

The Germans had nothing to be afraid of and a lot to be angry about in the 1930's.

Hitler’s MK strongly disagrees; before he felt Providence put him in the role of changing anything, he saw his role as being the Warner, the alarm bell. There is a reason the Red Scare/Menace was called that, and much the same reason why Jews were depicted as an empowered infestation. The key note was always fear, existential threat, the end of civilization. Here, Goebbles:

Humanity would sink into eternal darkness, it would fall into a dull and primitive state, were the Jews to win this war. They are the incarnation of that destructive force that in these terrible years has guided the enemy war leadership in a fight against all that we see as noble, beautiful, and worth keeping. For that reason alone the Jews hate us. They despise our culture and learning, which they perceive as towering over their nomadic worldview. They fear our economic and social standards, which leave no room for their parasitic drives.

Remember, all fascist ideology starts off as victimization.

[DMC]

Funny thing about the KY race is the GOP actually ran on (complaining about) impeachment because Bevin's so unpopular.  Now at only 11k vote margin with 96%....

[James Arryn]

12 minutes ago, Zorral said:

This sounds pretty bshyty in face of how the rethugs behave and talk -- it's rage and hate that drives them.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/mind-in-the-machine/201612/fear-and-anxiety-drive-conservatives-political-attitudes

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1077699018811089

https://www.businessinsider.com/psychological-differences-between-conservatives-and-liberals-2018-2

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/calling-truce-political-wars/

[Maithanet]

Super close in KY, but indications are that beshear will take it.  99 percent counted, up 11kvotes.  Yay!

Also looks like Democrats have narrowly taken both houses of Virginia legislature!  Double yay!  

[Jace, Extat]

5 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Hitler’s MK strongly disagrees; before he felt Providence put him in the role of changing anything, he saw his role as being the Warner, the alarm bell. There is a reason the Red Scare/Menace was called that, and much the same reason why Jews were depicted as an empowered infestation. The key note was always fear, existential threat, the end of civilization. Here, Goebbles:

Humanity would sink into eternal darkness, it would fall into a dull and primitive state, were the Jews to win this war. They are the incarnation of that destructive force that in these terrible years has guided the enemy war leadership in a fight against all that we see as noble, beautiful, and worth keeping. For that reason alone the Jews hate us. They despise our culture and learning, which they perceive as towering over their nomadic worldview. They fear our economic and social standards, which leave no room for their parasitic drives.

Remember, all fascist ideology starts off as victimization.

I think you're allowing distance to color your reading. Remember, Trump voters are not actually afraid of immigrants. They have anxieties that are easily warped to hatred, it's a minor distinction with a fair bit of relevance.

[Paladin of Ice]

If the results hold up in Kentucky, it’s great news. Bevin is such a piece of crap and always has been.

Officially turning Virginia blue is also very welcome news.

[Kalbear]

28 minutes ago, Zorral said:

This sounds pretty bshyty in face of how the rethugs behave and talk -- it's rage and hate that drives them.

It's not, however. It's fear. Hatred isn't something that typically is driven by anger - it's fear of something else. At least their kind of hatred. 

Keep in mind that anger and fear are genetic universal emotions - all neurotypical human beings have them. The difference is that everyone has them to some degree or another. And the political system in the US tends to favor fear driving conservatives if anything actually does. (another is, oddly enough, their version of joy, but I'll get to that some other time). Whereas liberals are driven primarily by anger and sadness, which correspond to fairness and helping/others. I've said it before, but these moral frameworks to associate emotions with moral values becomes kind of absurdly predicting in responses. Fear, in case you were curious, is mostly associated with adherence to authority. 

One side effect of this is that because anger/unfairness is such a big deal to liberals, one of the most effective attacks to make liberals turn on their own is the accusation of hypocrisy. That accusation of unfairness deeply wounds in a way that doesn't matter at all to more conservative voters, because they can just justify it in lots of other ways (ingroup protection, disgust, fear, authority, etc). Liberals don't have that as much, so it hits them harder.

[Kalbear]

5 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I think you're allowing distance to color your reading. Remember, Trump voters are not actually afraid of immigrants. They have anxieties that are easily warped to hatred, it's a minor distinction with a fair bit of relevance.

I don't think this is accurate. A lot of them actually ARE afraid of immigrants. But probably more accurately, they're afraid of That Other Group. They are afraid of their community changing, they're afraid of people who aren't like them, they're afraid of that different language and culture and value, and they're afraid that things will change.

[ants]

In an election where Democrats could have pushed on fears over the effects of the trade war with China, people losing health insurance, budget deficits, etc., it seems incredible to me that several candidates are pushing to give the Republicans huge items to fear; having your private health insurance taken away and huge taxes to pay for M4A.  

[Fez]

If Dems hang on to take the VA Legislature (they've got the pick-ups they need, just need to make sure they don't lose any of their pick-ups from last election), that locks in Virginia as a Dem state for a long time I think. The only reason the legislature is competitive right now is that Republicans drew the district lines back in 2011; now Democrats will get to draw the lines and they don't even need their own gerrymander (though I'm sure they'll do one) to make the legislature very safe.

Plus they'll get to draw the congressional lines. The delegation is 7-4 Democrats right now, but 4 of those are 2018 pick-ups. A new map could protect all of them, and probably even squeeze out another Democratic seat if they're really vicious in how they draw the lines.

[ThinkerX]

41 minutes ago, DMC said:

Funny thing about the KY race is the GOP actually ran on (complaining about) impeachment because Bevin's so unpopular.  Now at only 11k vote margin with 96%....

isn't this where a giant pile of 'R' ballots mysteriously appears from thin air, no questions asked?

[James Arryn]

33 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I think you're allowing distance to color your reading. Remember, Trump voters are not actually afraid of immigrants. They have anxieties that are easily warped to hatred, it's a minor distinction with a fair bit of relevance.

I’ll tell you what distance does: when we US feeds to sports, ie complete with US ads, we are astonished at how much fear is constantly pushed. A ton of military ads, a bunch of non-military ads that talk about the military, an unbelievable amount of insurance and home security ads, a bunch of cops shooting bad people show ads mixed in with shows about bad people shooting cops, and trucks/fast food. It’s unreal, unrelenting: be afraid. Be very afraid. They are out there, right now, wanting to get you. Outside your house, outside your country. They want in. They want your life, your freedom, your tv, your flesh. You aren’t nearly afraid enough. They are coming. Do you have enough guns/soldiers/insurance? Is your security system good enough? Is your government tough enough? Are you thinking about this enough? Because they are. Right now. Outside.

I don’t think Americans understand how remarkably extreme this stuff is to people who don’t grow up hearing that stuff every day. And these are the triggers that work on conservatives.

[Maithanet]

29 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

isn't this where a giant pile of 'R' ballots mysteriously appears from thin air, no questions asked?

According to cnn, all the votes are counted except for 8% of the vote in metcalfe county.  Given that the 92% that was counted gave Bevin a lead of 800 votes, it seems safe to assume he won't pick up 6000 in the remaining precincts.  I mean, I guess there's absentees, but usually those favor Dems, and they would need to be decisive for Bevin to pick up 5500 votes.

The short answer is that the Democrats win the governor's race in KY.  Local news in KY has called it already.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Bevin has not conceded, but a recount is not mandatory in KY and he would have to get the courts involved. I would put this as a pick up for the Democrats.

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

I don't think this is accurate. A lot of them actually ARE afraid of immigrants. But probably more accurately, they're afraid of That Other Group. They are afraid of their community changing, they're afraid of people who aren't like them, they're afraid of that different language and culture and value, and they're afraid that things will change.

And they're furious that things are changing and they hate what is different.  At this point its nearly, if not downright impossible to determine whether it is fear or hatred and anger that drives these people and ilks to pick up guns and mass murder utter strangers, to put children in cages, to deny them food and their parents and health care, to call those who are not like them scum, other countries shitholes.  I'm not seeing or hearing fear.  I am hearing hate for the other and love of committing cruelty.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

2 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I have to mildly push back against your edited material.

The Germans had nothing to be afraid of and a lot to be angry about in the 1930's.

You mean aside from the Jews filing down their horns to make them look like they are normal people and then eating their children? Fears don't have to be real to be effective. Some might argue irrational fears are the best kind of fears.

[The Anti-Targ]

2 hours ago, Zorral said:

This sounds pretty bshyty in face of how the rethugs behave and talk -- it's rage and hate that drives them.

Hate is almost always a fear based thing. And when you are frightened you react in two ways: run away and hide, or fight ferociously. So rage is also a common fear response.