Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

[Dofs]

3 hours ago, Springwatch said:

I like this first idea - Cersei going to extreme measures to protect her children. It's just like her.

But in no way did Sansa's information help her in this. The ship, the dancing lesson, and the arrangement of Ned's pathetically weak forces are utterly insignificant. And that's assuming Sansa told her all these things. (We've been arguing this for the past three pages, and more, if you want to look back....)

Well, Sansa helped her in what? Definitely not in stopping and arresting Ned, here I absolutely agree with you, Sansa going to Cersei and telling her all she knew had absolutely no impact on Ned's fate. 

But it did help her in ensuring that no one from Ned's people escapes the King's Landing after Ned gets arrested. With the help of Sansa's information Cersei was able to prepare and send her forces to specific locations beforehand so that as soon as Ned is arrested Cersei's men could instantly go for the Ned's people and not a single would slip through. Without such a quick action someone could have very well escaped after finding out that Ned got arrested and the Lannister men are searching for the Northerners.

And regarding that SMM that was posted earlier, I am not sure if the phrase 'Ned's downfall' should be interpreted literally. We don't know the phrasing of the question that was asked to George and George could have very well repeated the phrasing of the question but talked more about the disaster that happened to the whole Stark household in KL overall, rather than about Ned specifically. Because I don't see how the knowledge of how many people would have escorted Arya and Sansa to the ship and who would be in command of the escort is relevant in any way to Ned's fate, but I do see how it would be relevant to the fate of Ned's men.

 

[Springwatch]

18 hours ago, Dofs said:

Well, Sansa helped her in what? Definitely not in stopping and arresting Ned, here I absolutely agree with you, Sansa going to Cersei and telling her all she knew had absolutely no impact on Ned's fate. 

Yes, glad you see it too.

18 hours ago, Dofs said:

But it did help her in ensuring that no one from Ned's people escapes the King's Landing after Ned gets arrested. With the help of Sansa's information Cersei was able to prepare and send her forces to specific locations beforehand so that as soon as Ned is arrested Cersei's men could instantly go for the Ned's people and not a single would slip through. Without such a quick action someone could have very well escaped after finding out that Ned got arrested and the Lannister men are searching for the Northerners.

There's a lot of detail in these chapters - theories that look ok at first glance disappear like a mirage as soon as you drill down for evidence.

1. Ned changed the girls' escort in the middle of night - from ten to twenty men, led by Fat Tom instead of Porther. A big change.
2. It makes no difference anyway. The men had not yet assembled for their escort duty. We know this because Fat Tom accompanied Ned to the throne room. It makes sense, because the Wind Witch leaves in the evening, and the coup was in the morning.

Same for Arya and Syrio:

1. The Starks have been under surveillance from the beginning - watchers on the walls, eyes and ears in the kitchens.
2. Arya's lessons are noisy and frequent; they are in a dining hall next to the kitchens - absolutely not a secret.
3. Even if that was not true, the dining hall was part of the Stark complex, it would be searched
4. and they were within hearing range of the Tower of the Hand - the noisy lesson would be heard.
5. Arya only reached her secret passage safely because she look like a harmless, unimportant small boy. Syrio couldn't have done that.

And of course they had no chance of helping Ned, because the coup had already happened - Ser Meryn was at both events.

Whatever she said, Sansa couldn't have made any difference.

18 hours ago, Dofs said:

And regarding that SMM that was posted earlier, I am not sure if the phrase 'Ned's downfall' should be interpreted literally. We don't know the phrasing of the question that was asked to George and George could have very well repeated the phrasing of the question but talked more about the disaster that happened to the whole Stark household in KL overall, rather than about Ned specifically. Because I don't see how the knowledge of how many people would have escorted Arya and Sansa to the ship and who would be in command of the escort is relevant in any way to Ned's fate, but I do see how it would be relevant to the fate of Ned's men.

Yeah, I wish SSM's were treated with less reverence, and more questioning. I don't see myself how any of Ned's people could have escaped - the gates were closed, guards everywhere, secret passages were, for most people, unknown. They were taken by surprise. They were facing the Hound, Ser Meryn, and up to a hundred Lannister Red Cloaks, plus a dozen knights. No contest. Cersei wanted a massacre.

Sansa can't change any of this.

[sweetsunray]

I agree that Sansa's spilling of Ned's plans to Cersei cannot seem to have made a difference, but only if we assume that Robert just happened to die an hour after breakfast because of his wounds.

There's no doubt that Robert would have died that day, but it's odd that he died an hour later and Pycelle informed Ned about it while knowing Cersei was waiting to trap Ned the moment he set foot in the throne room. And I completely see Pycelle capable of giving Robert a good final dose of "medicine" to see him dead early in the day, before Ned could make any move.

We also know that Sansa left to spill the beans either during or after breakfast. She was told to go to her room by Ned during the breakfast. The question then becomes: when exactly did Sansa spill the beans to Cersei? Before Robert died or after? If Sansa revealed Ned's plans to Cersei before Robert's death, then this might have spurred Cersei and Pycelle on to hasten Robert's death by several hours. I suspect this is the window of time that Cersei alludes to when she tells Tyrion that they might have lost it all, if it weren't for Sansa coming to her.

[teej6]

On 1/7/2020 at 8:36 AM, sweetsunray said:

Actually, that's impossible. Ned spoke Cersei on the evening of the same day when Robert was gored in the morning. Robert was already gored and his death assured, before Ned even spoke to Cersei and alerted her of him knowing about her children not being Robert's. So, Ned's actions had nothing to do with Cersei's murder plans for Robert.

Yes I realized after I posted that Cersei may have set the plot to kill Robert in motion before Ned came to her. But unlike you, I do not think it impossible that she could have sent a messenger to Lancel after her conversation with Ned. We do not know when during the day the hunting accident occurred. All we know for a fact is that Robert died the day Sansa and Arya were to leave KL. Pycelle states that it takes them 2 days to bring Robert back but from this I don’t know how you accurately deduce at what time of the day Robert was attacked by the boar. It could have been anytime on the day after Ned’s conversation with Cersei. And Cersei could have send a message and the strongwine to Lancel anytime between her conversation with Ned and the hunting accident.

To my knowledge, we do not know the distance between KL and the place “across the river” Robert was hunting. Do we know how long it took Robar Royce to reach the King? We know he did relay Ned’s message to Robert. I’m assuming he relayed the message before Robert was gored by the boar. We know Ned sent Robar out with the message the day before he talked to Cersei. So if Robar could reach Robert in say a day or less what’s to stop Cersei sending a messenger who could reach Lancel before the hunting accident. The fact that it took them two days to bring Robert back to KL could mean several things — they attended to him first at the place they were hunting, or moving a wounded King takes much longer than a simple messenger traveling alone. In my view, we cannot accurately determine when Robert had his accident during the day — at dawn, or dusk, and we cannot with certainty state that Cersei could not have sent a messenger with orders for Lancel. In fact, Varys implies that it was Ned’s words that killed Robert, whether you believe him or not

Quote

“For fifteen years I protected him from his enemies, but I could not protect him from his friends. What strange fit of madness led you to tell the queen that you had learned the truth of Joffrey’s birth?” “The madness of mercy,” Ned admitted. “Ah,” said Varys. “To be sure. You are an honest and honorable man, Lord Eddard. Ofttimes I forget that. I have met so few of them in my life.” He glanced around the cell. “When I see what honesty and honor have won you, I understand why.” Ned Stark laid his head back against the damp stone wall and closed his eyes. His leg was throbbing. “The king’s wine … did you question Lancel?” “Oh, indeed. Cersei gave him the wineskins, and told him it was Robert’s favorite vintage.” The eunuch shrugged. “A hunter lives a perilous life. If the boar had not done for Robert, it would have been a fall from a horse, the bite of a wood adder, an arrow gone astray … the forest is the abbatoir of the gods. It was not wine that killed the king. It was your mercy.” Ned had feared as much. “Gods forgive me.” “If there are gods,” Varys said, “I expect they will. The queen would not have waited  long in any case. Robert was becoming unruly, and she needed to be rid of him to free her hands to deal with his brothers. They are quite a pair, Stannis and Renly. The iron gauntlet and the silk glove.” He wiped his mouth with the back of his hand. “You have been foolish, my lord. You ought to have heeded Littlefinger when he urged you to support Joffrey’s succession.”

In the above passage Ned does not suspect that Varys was playing him, and what reason would Varys have to lie here. If the timelines as you say are so certain, Ned would not think his words were the cause of Robert’s death.

But I do agree that Cersei was plotting to kill Robert long before but I don’t share your same certainty as to the time of Robert’s death or that Cersei could not have sent a messenger with the command to Lancel after her conversation with Ned.

[Only 89 selfies today]

On 11/8/2019 at 5:35 AM, Greywater-Watch said:

When Sansa told Cersei in the first book about Ned's plan to ship his daughters to Winterfell (which I call a betrayal), well, it made her the most hated Stark for many readers. But what exactly have been the consequences of this behaviour? Or in other words, what would have happened, hadn't she told Cersei?

In my view it would have put Sansa and Arya to safety (so of course their course in the story would have been completely different. But would it have changed anything concerning Ned Stark or Rob's war?

I think there is a high probability that:

1.  Ned would have lost his life anyway.

2. It wouldn't have changed The outcome of Rob's war.

ad 1): Ned lost the game in King's Landing because he was betrayed by Littlefinger (the City Watch). His beheading was due to Jeoffrey's decision, and the Young King didn't care or understand the importance of hostages anyway.

ad 2): Rob would have gone to war anyway, his main reason was to free Ned. Whispering Wood happened independently of Sansa and Arya being hostages. He may have killed Jamie Lannister after the news of Ned's death. But Jamie didn't play much of a role in the war anymore after Whispering Woods. And I cannot see Tywin Lannister taking a different course of action with or without the Stark children hostages. Maybe Rob's position to negotiate a favourable agreement would have been better with Jamie as only valuable hostage in the hands of one of the confronting sides.

Thoughts on this?

Sansa's betrayal would not have changed the outcome of the war but if she had kept her mouth shut it might have meant Ned Stark and his retainers would still be alive.  I don't care for the Starks; therefore, I am glad Sansa messed it all up for them.   There would be no reason for Robb Stark to go to war if Ned had lived.  Ned would run the war.  He's older and more capable, thus, the destruction would have been prolonged and the casualties increased because the Starks would have lasted longer.  Robb's stupidity was all for the good because it meant the Starks lost sooner and less people got killed.  Sansa is a selfish airhead who hurt her own family.  

[Springwatch]

On 1/9/2020 at 10:36 PM, sweetsunray said:

There's no doubt that Robert would have died that day, but it's odd that he died an hour later and Pycelle informed Ned about it while knowing Cersei was waiting to trap Ned the moment he set foot in the throne room. And I completely see Pycelle capable of giving Robert a good final dose of "medicine" to see him dead early in the day, before Ned could make any move.

This is good. Pycelle is Cersei's creature, as we know.

On 1/9/2020 at 10:36 PM, sweetsunray said:

We also know that Sansa left to spill the beans either during or after breakfast. She was told to go to her room by Ned during the breakfast. The question then becomes: when exactly did Sansa spill the beans to Cersei? Before Robert died or after? If Sansa revealed Ned's plans to Cersei before Robert's death, then this might have spurred Cersei and Pycelle on to hasten Robert's death by several hours. I suspect this is the window of time that Cersei alludes to when she tells Tyrion that they might have lost it all, if it weren't for Sansa coming to her.

We know Cersei had her trap ready to spring at an early hour, because that is what she actually did. Are there any reasons to delay longer than that? I can't see any. Delay is just time for things to go wrong (e.g. someone leaks information to Ned, or an independent doctor comes into the sickroom, or...).

In this context, news about the Wind Witch looks irrelevant and out-of-date. Cersei knows today is The Day. She is ready. The king is dying. When he dies - could be any moment, the wound is terrible, still bleeding and putrefying - when he dies, Ned will take the Iron Throne if he can.

If anything, the Wind Witch eases pressure on Cersei, because it tells her that Ned will not willingly move before his daughters are safely away. Or what's the point of sending them at all?

[Springwatch]

15 hours ago, Only 89 selfies today said:

if she had kept her mouth shut it might have meant Ned Stark and his retainers would still be alive.

It's been thirty pages on this thread, and still no workable scenario as you describe - like who saves Ned, and how, and why does Sansa make a difference? It's just not possible.

Same for the retainers, really. We are told the Stark guards were too few and struggling with their regular duties. We are told that Ned ordered them to secure the Tower of the Hand - so that's where they were, ready for the Red Cloaks to find them.

Just possibly there was a page up a tree in the godswood, a maid preparing the cabins of the Wind Witch. So what? Assuming they escaped (a big assumption) what secret information would they have? There are no secrets. Ned planned to make Stannis king. Cersei threw him in a dungeon. She slaughtered everyone in the Tower of the Hand. It's public knowledge.

Even the twincest - Stannis has been writing letters to every lord in the kingdom to tell them about that. Made no difference.

[Nagini's Neville]

1 hour ago, Springwatch said:

It's been thirty pages on this thread, and still no workable scenario as you describe - like who saves Ned, and how, and why does Sansa make a difference? It's just not possible.

Same for the retainers, really. We are told the Stark guards were too few and struggling with their regular duties. We are told that Ned ordered them to secure the Tower of the Hand - so that's where they were, ready for the Red Cloaks to find them.

Just possibly there was a page up a tree in the godswood, a maid preparing the cabins of the Wind Witch. So what? Assuming they escaped (a big assumption) what secret information would they have? There are no secrets. Ned planned to make Stannis king. Cersei threw him in a dungeon. She slaughtered everyone in the Tower of the Hand. It's public knowledge.

Even the twincest - Stannis has been writing letters to every lord in the kingdom to tell them about that. Made no difference.

If anyone of this forum was ever granted a conversation with GRRM. I'd vote for you. I'd like you to debate him on this matters 

 

[sweetsunray]

7 hours ago, Springwatch said:

This is good. Pycelle is Cersei's creature, as we know.

We know Cersei had her trap ready to spring at an early hour, because that is what she actually did. Are there any reasons to delay longer than that? I can't see any. Delay is just time for things to go wrong (e.g. someone leaks information to Ned, or an independent doctor comes into the sickroom, or...).

In this context, news about the Wind Witch looks irrelevant and out-of-date. Cersei knows today is The Day. She is ready. The king is dying. When he dies - could be any moment, the wound is terrible, still bleeding and putrefying - when he dies, Ned will take the Iron Throne if he can.

If anything, the Wind Witch eases pressure on Cersei, because it tells her that Ned will not willingly move before his daughters are safely away. Or what's the point of sending them at all?

Well, it all depends what prompted the timing of Robert's death. There are three possible scenarios:
 

SCENARIO 1

- Cersei was preparing, but waiting for Robert to finally die.

- Robert dies.

- Ned is sent for and ends up arrested in the throne room.

- Sansa arrived while Cersei was waiting for Robert to die, but was kept aside in a room.

- Cersei returns from her coup and hears of Sansa wanting to see her. Sansa spills the beans.

- The tower is attacked with extra haste.

SCENARIO 2

- Cersei was preparing, but waiting for Robert to finally die.

- Sansa arrives and spills the beans.

- Given the need to act with haste, before Ned is able to realize Sansa's in the hands of the queen and rescue Arya and other members of the household (and himself), Cersei needs to arrest Ned, but unsure of loyalties of others dares not to attack Ned at the tower itself. She needs him out of the tower and isolated in the throne room.

- The only way to extract Ned is by having Robert die. So, Robert's given a potion to have him die quicker.

- the rest of the scenario as we read it plays out.

SCENARIO 3

- Cersei was waiting anxiously for Robert to finally die, and not setting a trap at all.

- Sansa arrives and spills the beans.

- With Sansa's information and Ned's inaction thus far, Cersei sees her chance to assemble the small council and convince them that Ned is a traitor. They prepare a trap.

- Cersei sends Pycelle to lie to Ned that Robert is dead.

- Cersei arrests Ned and has the men at the tower attacked.

- She secures the castle before Robert dies.

- Robert finally dies naturally and the bells are rung.

 

Now, the argument that the text provides no actual evidence that Sansa's information made any difference relies on the assumption that scenario 1 happened. However, it is an assumption. The assumption also causes people to say that GRRM doesn't know what he's talking about, and that Cersei must have been exaggerating or lying to Tyrion. Scenario 2 and 3 reconcile several textual inconsistencies (the late ringing of the bells of Robert's death, despite him having died in the morning allegedly) as well as fit Cersei's claim and George's. Because on both those scenarios, Sansa's information prompted Cersei into action and provided Cersei with testimony to convince the small council of Ned's treason. Then yes, Sansa was an instrumental part of Ned's downfall and the attack on the Tower.

I don't know which scenario actually did play out, but because the text leaves room for all three scenarios thus far (Cersei has not thought of it again in her mind in her POV chapters) I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss George's words nor Cersei's about it. And yes, there is ample room for all 3 scenarios. We only have Pycelle's word of Robert's death and we know he's a Lannister supporter and either quite able to administer something extra to Robert or to lie to Ned to lure him into the throne room. We have no actual evidence though that Robert died without Pycelle's aid, or even that he was indeed dead at the time. Nor do we have any POV into the small council or Cersei (during that time) before Ned gets arrested. Nor do we have any confirmation on when Sansa actually spoke to Cersei: before the coup, after, nor how long before or after.

I've also read several times how Ned's guards at the Tower were dismissed. But according to Sansa's POV the fighting in the courtyard did last a while. If it took a few hours to get the last of them killed, then they were not such easily conquered as some people have tried to make it look in this thread.

[AliceRose]

On 11/10/2019 at 6:53 PM, Mordred said:

But to betray the family to an obviously untrustworthy person as Cersei was a very selfish act.  

 How is it obvious for Sansa?? 

Robert Baratheon their king, their ally and their friend, Cersei and the kinds are his family. Robert is almost a brother to Ned Sansa must have heard that many times. Robert and his family are the colosest friends to the Starks and enter in the inner circle of trust, the Starks have no one else closer as nobility status, political and military relationships personal friendship. The marriage between Joffrey and Sansa it's just the cherry on the cake to unite two families that are already united by the same victories and same interests to maintain peace in the 7 kingdoms. Sansa does not make a difference between Baratheons /Lannisters /Starks she thinks and acts in her heart as if they were all one big family. In the real world comparison Sansa perceives Robert and Cersei as god father and God mother. She would never ever think that her father engaged her to the enemies. Ned trusted Cersei and Robert enough to agree with the betrothal so did Sansa. She trusted people because father trusted them. She forgive Cersei for the killing of Lady because she perceived her as an authoritarian adult who knows better what is best and since nobody really confronted that decision in Sansa's eyes it looked like the older people from her family dicided that a direwolf is too dangerous to keep as a pet. She truly and genuinely trusted Cersei to be a friend, not only Sansa's friend but family's friend. 

Another detail, after Ned told the girls he is sending them back three days had passed. In these three days Sansa was desperate, she was crying, refusing to eat and with all the means of non verbal communication domanding, begging pleading to let her know what happens, she was showing that how insufferable that departure is for her and that she considers it an injustice.. She waited and cried and refused to eat, at the end she verbalised her concerns. Weeping and throwing a chair on the floor she asked father why you are so unfair, Aria can see Siryo and I can't say goodbye to Joffrey. She had rights to be desperate and any person has right to be comforted by his friends and family in a harsh situation. Sansa's family ignored her, ignored her tears and disper for three day. A father doesn't have to give account of his decisions to a a child but if you love your child you must at least try to console her. It's must be absolutely obvious to Ned and to the reader that Sansa did not believe Cersei and Joffrey to be obviously untrustworthy, it's was obiosly the opposite for Sansa, she made no secret of it in her chapters. She went to a friend seeking consolation and advice she couldn't find with her family. A friend she believed would act in everyone's best interest. 

Zero betrayal detected

[Springwatch]

@sweetsunray, sorry for the slow response to your last - I spend my computer time wrestling with the death of Windows 7 . I will take a closer look at the three scenarios when I have more time - though I don't  see mine there (obviously mine does not have to support the SSM).

I'll just quickly focus on the two ways you identified in which Sansa could be to blame, or at least responsible (and that's two more than I thought of...)

• The fact that Ned sends his daughters away is used by Cersei as evidence that Ned is plotting treason - the Small Council are convinced and join her side. It's not totally impossible, but there are strong reasons not to believe it.

1. There is still only one hour between the Stark breakfast and the 'official' death of Robert - which must include Sansa finding Cersei and being questioned, and then the Small Council summoned and persuaded. Then, naturally or not, Robert dies and the trap is sprung. LF attends Ned's immediate summons with not much delay. There is no chance of bribing the Gold Cloaks in this time frame.
2. The Small Council are all players - they're not in the game for justice, they're in it for themselves. LF and Varys already know about Cersei's treasons.

• The Starks may take alarm at Sansa's absence. To avoid this, Cersei triggers the coup earlier, giving Ned less time to prepare. Against this:

1. It is always better to give Ned less time to prepare. Cersei has no reason to delay after she has gained the Gold Cloaks - except of course, the death of Robert, which as you rightly point out, she may have control of herself.
2. Ned is the main prize here - if Sansa's absence could be a problem, then it's easy to send her back to the Tower of the Hand to be picked up afterwards. Anyway, maybe Sansa mentioned that she won't be looked for until midday. (I find it incredibly weird that Ned does not lock his daughters down on this day of days....)

[AliceRose]

More closely on the topic. 

The night before the events Ned askes Petyr to bribe the Golden Cloaks 

Ned and Sansa have breakfast together, Sansa runs away in her chamber in tears. 

One hour later Maester Pycell comes to inform Eddard of Robert's death. 

Ned commands to summon the Council 

Littlefinger came next, still garbed in the blue velvets and silver mockingbird cape he had worn the night previous, his boots dusty from riding.

Than King's steward came to invite every one in the throne room as per Joffrey's order. 

By that time the GC had been already brought and the throne room secured

Information about the Gold cloaks is more important than the information about the departure of the girls, because it was kind of obvious that Eddard would want to put his daughters to safety sooner or later. 

When and how Petyr and Cersei arranged the bribe of the city guards that is the main question. If I am not mistaken later in the books it's saying that Baelish came to Cersei on his own initiative to offer to secure Golden Cloaks, she did not call for him after she'd received information from Sansa. The arrival of Sansa and Baelish to Cersei are independent one from another, Petyr couldn't possibly know Sansa is going to disclose their planned departure. 

Petyr wore the same clothes as the night before and his boots were dusty from riding, it looks almost like he didn't go to sleep at all and was busy organising the coup. 

We don't know what exactly did Petyr tell Cersei, he might have told her that Ned asked him to bribe the Golden Cloaks for him or he might have simply suggested that it would be wise to have the Cloaks paid and on her side in case of necessity. 

As timing is concerned I tend to believe Petyr secured the guards for Cersei long before Sansa's arrival. 

If Baelish revealed to Cersei Ned's intention to bribe the Golden Cloaks that information alone is more than sufficient to start acting immediately and nothing that Sansa might have said would have influenced anything. If he just brouth the city guards to Cersei's side without reveling much of his dialogue Ned still nothing would have changed for the Stark girls and their escort, the gates were controlled by the Queen's people, they would never let them out. 

Petyr is smarter than Ned, he wouldn't sit there wasting time, he would want to have everything in place as soon as possible. Even without Sansa the golden cloaks would be set against Starks before the planned departure of the ship. 

The only slightest chance I could imagine for the girls it's if the king lived and were conscious long enough till the evening tide. The guards are bought by Cersei but they might still be afraid to disobey a direct order forom the King to let the Starks leave. But even here, Pycell had the power to end Robert's live at any moment. 

Considering that Lord Baelish is the main player of this game there is no workable scenario where Arya and Sansa might have fled KL if Sansa didn't go to Cersei.