UK Politics: Spaffed up the wall while chuntering from a sedentary position

[BigFatCoward]

53 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

I feel like nobody here reads the Guardian or Independent or watch’s tv , or looks at the internet if they think Boris is getting a free ride compared to Corbyn 

What do you imagine the combined readership of those papers is compared to the right wing press? 

There is also a big difference between BJ being held to account, and the visceral, personal attacks on Corbyn. 

Anybody else ill raised, aggresive, illegitimate or ignorant?

[Zorral]

https://www.politico.eu/article/labour-nhs-conservatives-leaked-papers-hint-at-post-brexit-trade-priorities-for-uk-us/

 

[Which Tyler]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/955f42d2-1225-11ea-96fb-8041210fa214?

Boris Johnson has served notice that he intends to clip the power of the courts in what leading lawyers said was revenge for outlawing his attempt to suspend parliament.

The prime minister is understood to have insisted that the Conservative party manifesto include a promise of constitutional reform so that he could claim a mandate to reform the Supreme Court and House of Lords.

A little-noticed section of the manifesto, published this week, states that “after Brexit we also need to look at the broader aspects of our constitution: the relationship between the government, parliament and the courts; the functioning of the royal prerogative”.

[Werthead]

2 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

What do you imagine the combined readership of those papers is compared to the right wing press? 

There is also a big difference between BJ being held to account, and the visceral, personal attacks on Corbyn. 

Anybody else ill raised, aggresive, illegitimate or ignorant?

Yup, the British press is overwhelmingly dominated by the right-wing press in print sales, although maybe not so much in web reach. Also you don't need to imagine it, most of the figures are readily available.

 

Right-wing/Hostile to Corbyn

The Sun -  1.24 million

The Daily Mail - 1.16 million (both the Sun and Mail websites are huge, but neither has disclosed figures for them recently)

The Telegraph - 363,000

The Times - 420,000

The Sunday Times - 660,000 (print), 220,000 (digital)

The Evening Standard - 898,000

The Daily Express - 315,000

Sunday Express - 272,000

 

Neutral (ish)

The Metro - 1.4 million (although owned by the owners of the Mail)

The Financial Times - 169,000 (print), 740,000 (digital) - The FT recently endorsed Labour in this election, which was a surprise

The Daily Star - 323,000 (mostly completely apolitical, but it did clearly have a grudge against Brown and Labour in 2010 which some has taken as a pro-Tory position)

The i - 220,000

 

Left-wing/Not Always Hostile to Corbyn (although they still are a lot)

The Mirror - 465,000

The Guardian - 131,000

The Observer - 160,000

The Sunday People - 198,000

 

It should be noted that both the Indy and the Guardian have massive international websites (23 and 22 million daily hits respectively) which focus a lot on stories in other countries, so those figures are certainly not representative of the number of UK voters who read them on a regular basis, which is likely more like a million apiece (both papers benefit from putting all their stories on their website for free, whilst the likes of the Times gate theirs behind paywalls). Most of the Guardian's current online readership comes from the States.

[Chaircat Meow]

Labour are definitely on the move:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (-)

LAB: 34% (+2)

LDEM: 13% (-1)

BREX: 4% (+1)

GRN: 3% (+1) via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov Chgs. w/ 22 Nov

If they can creep up 2-3 extra points before the election they will shrink the Tory lead to 5-6 and this lead is likely to produce a hung Parliament according to John Curtice and YouGov.

[The Anti-Targ]

4 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Labour are definitely on the move:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (-)

LAB: 34% (+2)

LDEM: 13% (-1)

BREX: 4% (+1)

GRN: 3% (+1) via @PanelbaseMD, 27 - 28 Nov Chgs. w/ 22 Nov

If they can creep up 2-3 extra points before the election they will shrink the Tory lead to 5-6 and this lead is likely to produce a hung Parliament according to John Curtice and YouGov.

Is it the gap, or is it that total vote share for the cons that would be more predictive of whether they will get a majority? I would thinkg that at some point the overall vote share would be more significant. Eg, if the Cons had 46%, Labour 42% and the rest a combined 12%, it's likely the cons would get a majority even with just a 4% gap.

[Chaircat Meow]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Is it the gap, or is it that total vote share for the cons that would be more predictive of whether they will get a majority? I would thinkg that at some point the overall vote share would be more significant. Eg, if the Cons had 46%, Labour 42% and the rest a combined 12%, it's likely the cons would get a majority even with just a 4% gap.

Most people seem to think the gap, although you're right the overall share does matter too. 

[Werthead]

11 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Is it the gap, or is it that total vote share for the cons that would be more predictive of whether they will get a majority? I would thinkg that at some point the overall vote share would be more significant. Eg, if the Cons had 46%, Labour 42% and the rest a combined 12%, it's likely the cons would get a majority even with just a 4% gap.

In that case, they would squeeze a narrow majority. That kind of gap results in a hung Parliament only if the LibDems were biting much more deeply into Tory numbers, which now does not seem to be the case. It may fall more on the DUP losing seats in Northern Ireland and the SNP taking back some of the Scottish Tory seats, although the numbers there are not large.

In one sense that's a more encouraging result, as it means Labour could possibly avoid a dubious and reluctant alliance with the LibDems in favour of one with the SNP, which both sides seem at least a bit more amenable to.

[Derfel Cadarn]

BBC misrepresented Corbyn’s views on police shooting terrorists (after the French attacks)

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/entertainment-arts-38666914?__twitter_impression=true

[Chaircat Meow]

BMG putting the Tories only six points ahead - big uptick in Labour support. Corbyn is in the zone. 

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 39% (-2)

LAB: 33% (+5)

LDEM: 13% (-5)

GRN: 5% (-)

BREX: 4% (+1)

via @BMGResearch, 27 - 29 Nov Chgs. w/ 21 Nov

edit: although Green support is weirdly high in this poll.

[BigFatCoward]

35 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

BMG putting the Tories only six points ahead - big uptick in Labour support. Corbyn is in the zone. 

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 39% (-2)

LAB: 33% (+5)

LDEM: 13% (-5)

GRN: 5% (-)

BREX: 4% (+1)

via @BMGResearch, 27 - 29 Nov Chgs. w/ 21 Nov

edit: although Green support is weirdly high in this poll.

I want to beleive. But you seem to only be sharing best poll of the day. 

[Chaircat Meow]

10 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

I want to beleive. But you seem to only be sharing best poll of the day. 

Yes it is the best poll of the day. Actually, the best poll for about three weeks.  But it is about trends. Every poll has shown the gap narrowing and the ones who've always shown a smaller gap, ICM, Comres are now putting us on the edge of hung Parliament territory. 

[Chaircat Meow]

This is poll is not so good. 

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (+2)

LAB: 33% (-1)

LDEM: 13% (-)

BREX: 4% (-1)

GRN: 3% (+1)

via @SavantaComRes, 27 - 28 Nov Chgs. w/ 26 Nov

 

[Werthead]

Owch. Johnson was warned that releasing prisoners on terrorism charges at the end of their sentence without a deradicalisation programme in place was dangerous, but he said there was no money for it and brushed off the problem.

Also, Johnson apparently got so annoyed with the 7/7/05 post-terror attack inquests that he said, "Fuck the families!"

[SeanF]

46/31 with Opinium.

45/32 with Deltapoll.

[Chaircat Meow]

YouGov.

Almost all polls show labour gaining.

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)

LAB: 34% (+2)

LDEM: 13% (-)

GRN: 3% (+1)

BREX: 2% (-2)

via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Nov Chgs. w/ 26 Nov

[Isis]

Had a little chat with Nick Harkaway (yes) on Twitter this morning and he pointed out that being in favour of capital punishment is a big indicator for voting leave. Jesus Christ. It's soul destroying. There's a portion of the population who vote with no consideration for logic whatsoever. They are a lost cause. 

[Werthead]

4 minutes ago, Isis said:

Had a little chat with Nick Harkaway (yes) on Twitter this morning and he pointed out that being in favour of capital punishment is a big indicator for voting leave. Jesus Christ. It's soul destroying. There's a portion of the population who vote with no consideration for logic whatsoever. They are a lost cause. 

Psychologically, they're rooted in the same idea that if you could just apply a very simple solution to a big, complex problem, everything will be fine: kill all the criminals and crime will disappear. Leave the EU and all of Britain's other problems will disappear overnight and we'll go back to the glory days of Empire. People who believe these things are terrified of and incapable of dealing with the nuances and complexities of the real world. It's the same reason why they tend to reject climate change as being a problem at all, because they are incapable of dealing with the scale of the issue.

[SeanF]

Polls seem to be settling on about a 10% Conservative lead.

[Isis]

3 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Psychologically, they're rooted in the same idea that if you could just apply a very simple solution to a big, complex problem, everything will be fine: kill all the criminals and crime will disappear. Leave the EU and all of Britain's other problems will disappear overnight and we'll go back to the glory days of Empire. 

The ones who actually admit 'yeah, it'll be harder than it is now and everyone will suffer, but we'll have control'... But we have control now ffs.

See also the people who want the government to deal with important stuff instead of Brexit ('get Brexit done, Boris' lol), e.g. homelessness? Right, because the government have done such a great job of tackling homelessness.

And, 'labour will bankrupt the country'? Where has all the money to pay for Brexit come from then? Because we didn't have any money for that. I don't suppose we had the money the stupid 'prepare for Brexit on October 31st' TV ads, posters, flyers etc either.