Ser Shadrich a Littlefinger pawn from the beginning?

[Greywater-Watch]

There have been many clever thoughts on Ser Shadrich being in the Vale now close to Sansa, and the impact on the story if he learns about Alayne's true identity

I have this idea:

What if Ser Shadrich was Littlefinger's pawn from the beginning?

Would be a typical Littlefinger move: Sending a Knight on the hunt for Sansa through the realm parallel to bringing Sansa to the Vale.

What better strategy to be aware of the progress of other hunters in finding Sansa?

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 11/13/2019 at 4:56 AM, Greywater-Watch said:

There have been many clever thoughts on Ser Shadrich being in the Vale now close to Sansa, and the impact on the story if he learns about Alayne's true identity

I have this idea:

What if Ser Shadrich was Littlefinger's pawn from the beginning?

Would be a typical Littlefinger move: Sending a Knight on the hunt for Sansa through the realm parallel to bringing Sansa to the Vale.

What better strategy to be aware of the progress of other hunters in finding Sansa?

I think we are meant to understand that Varys's agent has found Sansa. The question, it seems to me, is whether he will abduct, or attempt to abduct Sansa, or whether he is simply sending information back to Varys. 

[redriver]

Or Ser Shadrich is Howland Reed??

That puts the  cat amongst the pigeons.

[Greywater-Watch]

Has it been mentioned in the books that Ser Shadrich is Varys's agent?

[redriver]

Suggested.

Ser Shadrich claims he is on a mission from Varys, promising him a bag of gold.

He offers to share it with Brienne.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Actually, I don't think he claims to have been sent by Varys, I think he just tells Brienne that Varys is offering gold for Sansa's whereabouts. 

The reader is left to assume that Shadrich might be working for Varys, especially since he is called the Mad Mouse, and we learned in early Dance that Varys used to refer to his network of informants as mice. 

[Lady Rhodes]

An interesting thought:

Varys has disappeared from court after the events in Storm, so either Ser Shadrich is lying/misinformed (the Lord Varys excuse is a ploy but he isn’t smart enough to know Varys is gone) or he actually is a Varys pawn.

Now, if he is a Varys pawn, why may Varys want Sansa? Is he looking for a Queen for Aegon? While Varys and Illyrio are clearly for a Targaryen restoration, they may be looking to temper some of the less savory Targaryen impulses, such as intermarriage. I don’t think they want Dany to be Aegon’s queen; the dragons were just a wrench in that plan.

The thing that bothers me is how Varys went years without knowing about Doran’s plan. It has been implied that he kept track of  Dany and Viserys’s whereabouts in Braavos and throughout the Free Cities so you would think the appearance of Oberyn Martell in the locale at the same time would raise eyebrows...unless Lemongate proves true and Dany and Viserys were not in Braavos when Oberyn was there.

I am somewhat persuaded by the theory that the Stormborn moniker is a misnomer or a misdirection. I don’t think that Rhaella and Viserys were ever on Dragonstone. There is a passing reference to the storm being so fierce that it tore stones from Dragonstone.  Interestingly enough, there are two clues that point toward where they actually could have been. First is the title of the third book : A Storm of Swords, indicating a Storm not caused by weather but by fighting. In addition, the second clue, is that we are told that Ned Stark pulled down the Tower of Joy stone by stone after the fighting that occurred there. My theory is that Lyanna was at the Tower with Rhaella and Viserys and Willem Darry - there supposed escape to Dragonstone was a feign and they actually went another direction - Dorne. This would also explain why there are three Kingsguard knights there. Rhaella died in Dorne. Viserys and Dany were kept hidden in Dorne until Oberyn made the pact with the Sealord of Braavos, at which point they were sent to the Sealord’s palace (probably when they reached an age when Viserys wouldn’t be able to keep his mouth shut)

In short, if Ser Shadrich is a Varys pawn, I think Varys is looking for a bride for Aegon. But I am intrigued by him not appealing to the Prince of Dorne given that Doran had an eligible daughter in Arianne and him being Aegon’s uncle.

[Lost Melnibonean]

13 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

An interesting thought:

Varys has disappeared from court after the events in Storm, so either Ser Shadrich is lying/misinformed (the Lord Varys excuse is a ploy but he isn’t smart enough to know Varys is gone) or he actually is a Varys pawn.

Presumably, the reward was posted before Varys helped Tyrion escape. 

13 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Now, if he is a Varys pawn, why may Varys want Sansa? Is he looking for a Queen for Aegon? While Varys and Illyrio are clearly for a Targaryen restoration, they may be looking to temper some of the less savory Targaryen impulses, such as intermarriage. I don’t think they want Dany to be Aegon’s queen; the dragons were just a wrench in that plan.

As suggested above, the reward that Shadrich said he was working towards was posted before Varys went to ground on the order of Tywin. Under the right circumstances, Sansa could be the key to North, though, so Varys would want her in Aegon's camp. She wouldn't have to wed Aegon, though; she could be wed to an ally. 

13 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

The thing that bothers me is how Varys went years without knowing about Doran’s plan. It has been implied that he kept track of  Dany and Viserys’s whereabouts in Braavos and throughout the Free Cities so you would think the appearance of Oberyn Martell in the locale at the same time would raise eyebrows...

Wouldn't it bother you more if Varys knew everything, everywhere? He is a spymaster, not a greenseer. 

[Lady Rhodes]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Presumably, the reward was posted before Varys helped Tyrion escape. 

As suggested above, the reward that Shadrich said he was working towards was posted before Varys went to ground on the order of Tywin. Under the right circumstances, Sansa could be the key to North, though, so Varys would want her in Aegon's camp. She wouldn't have to wed Aegon, though; she could be wed to an ally. 

Wouldn't it bother you more if Varys knew everything, everywhere? He is a spymaster, not a greenseer. 

While I can agree that it was probably posted before the escape, after Tywin’s death and Varys’ disappearance, the gold seems unlikely. Granted, Shadrich could be operating on outdated information, which is very possible given the time period. Somehow, though, I think that is too simplistic.

As to Varys and his prowess as spy master, this seems like a glaring oversight.  Given how much Doran and Oberyn loves their sister and her children, one would think they would have been watched very carefully.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

While I can agree that it was probably posted before the escape, after Tywin’s death and Varys’ disappearance, the gold seems unlikely. Granted, Shadrich could be operating on outdated information, which is very possible given the time period. Somehow, though, I think that is too simplistic.

As to Varys and his prowess as spy master, this seems like a glaring oversight.  Given how much Doran and Oberyn loves their sister and her children, one would think they would have been watched very carefully.

As to your first point, you have me... But I was playing devil's advocate. I do believe that we should relate the Mad Mouse, at least loosely, to Varys, and by extension, to Aegon. 

As t your second point, Doran and Oberyn are not the first to avoid the Spider's reach. Littlefinger and even Renly were able to avoid Varys's detection. 

[Lady Rhodes]

6 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As to your first point, you have me... But I was playing devil's advocate. I do believe that we should relate the Mad Mouse, at least loosely, to Varys, and by extension, to Aegon. 

As t your second point, Doran and Oberyn are not the first to avoid the Spider's reach. Littlefinger and even Renly were able to avoid Varys's detection. 

Point made about Renly and Littlefinger. I have trouble sussing our Varys’ motives/abilities, as in how much does he know but allow to unfold etc

[Lost Melnibonean]

9 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Point made about Renly and Littlefinger. I have trouble sussing our Varys’ motives/abilities, as in how much does he know but allow to unfold etc

I thnk it's safe to assume that Varys is aware of everything that happens in the Red Keep unless efforts are made to conceal it, like having a fool sing loudly or meeting in the godswood or in the middle of the drawbridge. Varys probably knows most of what goes on in King's Landing. But I think his network must weaken the further one goes from the center of the web. 

[Lady Rhodes]

18 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I thnk it's safe to assume that Varys is aware of everything that happens in the Red Keep unless efforts are made to conceal it, like having a fool sing loudly or meeting in the godswood or in the middle of the drawbridge. Varys probably knows most of what goes on in King's Landing. But I think his network must weaken the further one goes from the center of the web. 

I do think you are right - Varys has more knowledge inside the red keep versus King’s landing versus elsewhere but I still think he has a network of some sort. The question is what kind and how reliable

[aryagonnakill#2]

On 12/11/2019 at 9:29 PM, Lady Rhodes said:

I do think you are right - Varys has more knowledge inside the red keep versus King’s landing versus elsewhere but I still think he has a network of some sort. The question is what kind and how reliable

He had someone sending him ravens all the way from WF.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

On 3/8/2020 at 10:08 AM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

He had someone sending him ravens all the way from WF.

Unlikely. It is heavily implied that Varys' knowledge of the attack on Bran and the knife used in it came from one of his little birds who eavesdropped on the conversation between Ser Rodrik Cassel and Ser Aron Santagar. 

As to Ser Shadrich -

He claims to be the "Mad Mouse". Arya is told about a poison that would make a mouse mad enough to attack a lion.

Ser Shadrich, however, is clearly described as being fox-like. He looks like a fox; he acts like a fox. Who is the most famous fox character in mythology/legend? Reynard the Fox, an anthropomorphic trickster figure in Medieval European tales. Curiously enough, Westeros has a Reynard - Reynard Reyne, the clever younger brother of Roger Reyne. All the Reynes of Castamere perished at the hands of Tywin Lannister, but what about descendants in the female line, or perhaps bastards not living at Castamere? House Lannister is likely to get bitten in the ass but good as a result of Tywin's extremism.

Ser Shadrich might very well be a bastard son of Reynard Reyne. He is seeking Sansa not just for the reward, but to ingratiate himself with the Lannisters. He will then serve House Lannister a major helping of karmic payback by drowning Tommen in his bathtub.