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Alexis-something-Rose

Slayer of Lies triad; another look

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14 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I'm not really sure how you reached this conclusion. Euron is a kraken. The one vision we have that's Euron-related was Moqorro calling him "a tall twisted thing with one black eye and ten long arms, sailing on a sea of blood."

My best guess

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On ‎11‎/‎23‎/‎2019 at 6:38 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

The cloth dragon, or mummer's dragon, as Daenerys later describes the vision, is Aegon

This Theory looks nice to me, with Varys being the mummer. It has one flaw though: Why would Varys then not tell the truth about Aegon being a fake to Kevan, when he was about to die? I had the impression that all Varys said to Kevan Lannister in Pycelle's room was the truth.

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6 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

This Theory looks nice to me, with Varys being the mummer. It has one flaw though: Why would Varys then not tell the truth about Aegon being a fake to Kevan, when he was about to die? I had the impression that all Varys said to Kevan Lannister in Pycelle's room was the truth.

I think the theory is flawed because Dany's explanation of what a mummer's dragon is gets disregarded.

I actually just re-read that chapter last night and it's not just what you mention, but right off the bat, the people on the small council are calling Aegon a "feigned boy" and a "pretender." So these people who don't know the boy, have never seen the boy, who have too much at stake are already calling him a fake. But Varys has no reason to lie to a man who is dying. 

And there is something else that I remembered from Fire and Blood that I posted in the I never noticed thread. There was a parallel drawn between the Young Dragon and Aegon/YG in the Lost Lord chapter, but in the Epilogue of ADwD, there's a rather juicy parallel between Jaehaerys I and Aegon.

Jaehaerys raised his banner at Storm's End. That's where he was declared king, that's where the lords flocked to him, that's where he promised to get rid of the usurper.

Fast forward to the current story. Jon Connington and Aegon are marching on Storm's End and its fall will be a huge blow to King's Landing. That's where Varys says Aegon will raise his banner and that's where those who remained loyal to House Targaryen will flock. 

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On 11/24/2019 at 12:20 AM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I'm not really sure how you reached this conclusion. Euron is a kraken. The one vision we have that's Euron-related was Moqorro calling him "a tall twisted thing with one black eye and ten long arms, sailing on a sea of blood."

The stone beast aligns perfectly with Euron.

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From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . 

Jumping from a tower to fly.

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Euron turned to face him, his bruised blue lips curled in a half smile. "Perhaps we can fly. All of us. How will we ever know unless we leap from some tall tower?" The wind came gusting through the window and stirred his sable cloak. There was something obscene and disturbing about his nakedness. "No man ever truly knows what he can do unless he dares to leap."

It is him taking the leap, and succeeding. Killing himself and being reborn. He is a mad dreamer, and this is why.

The stone beast is a sphinx. It is the combination of Euron's human blood, his kraken blood and the dragon he is becoming, it is GRRM's Cthulhu, a new god. If you're not aware what Cthulhu looks like then look him up and you have the reason for why Dany describes it as a beast.

Spoiler

 

The general gist here.

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“The bleeding star bespoke the end,” he said to Aeron. “These are the last days, when the world shall be broken and remade. A new god shall be born from the graves and charnel pits.” Then Euron lifted a great horn to his lips and blew, and dragons and krakens and sphinxes came at his command and bowed before him. “Kneel, brother,” the Crow’s Eye commanded. “I am your king, I am your god. Worship me, and I will raise you up to be my priest.”

And here.

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He saw his brother on the Iron Throne again, but Euron was no longer human. He seemed more squid than man, a monster fathered by a kraken of the deep, his face a mass of writhing tentacles.

The stone of the beast comes because Euron will have greyscale.

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A corpse stood at the prow of a ship, eyes bright in his dead face, grey lips smiling sadly.

As greyscale turns people grey his lips are grey. As people with greyscale are considered already dead he is given a dead face.

And because Euron's blood is sea water and grey scale diseased, the stone beast will not breathe fire but a pestillence. Like the Sorrows.

Thematically GRRM seems to be intent on fucking with Euron. The Maesters told Euron he couldn't fly, but because Euron is Euron he is going to overcome. He's traveled the world to get a horn which will allow him to commit suicide and be reborn as a dragon, to fly. Now he's about getting the dragon he wants to second life, to do so he needs to marry the most beautiful woman in the world, but this doesn't daunt him in the slightest. And he's going to succeed, blow his horn, die, and wake up in a dragon. But after he's done all these seemingly impossible tasks GRRM is going to ground him again, and worse. The stone beast will get progressively more stone and too heavy to fly, at least one wing will break, and his kraken blood is going to win out and turn him into a watery beast, a pale white thing, limbs broken and swollen, a slug doomed to crawl the ocean's floor.

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“Will you do the same, brother?” Euron asked. “I think not. I think if I drowned you, you’ll stay drowned. All gods are lies, but yours is laughable. A pale white thing in the likeness of a man, his limbs broken and swollen and his hair flipping in the water while fish nibble at his face. What fool would worship that?”

“He’s your god as well,” insisted the Damphair. “And when you die, he will judge you harshly, Crow’s Eye. You will spend eternity as a sea slug, crawling on your belly eating shit. If you do not fear to kill your own blood, slit my throat and be done with me. I’m weary of your mad boastings.”

 

Sadly, Euron never had a chance.

 

 

Edited by chrisdaw

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On 11/26/2019 at 9:49 AM, Greywater-Watch said:

This Theory looks nice to me, with Varys being the mummer. It has one flaw though: Why would Varys then not tell the truth about Aegon being a fake to Kevan, when he was about to die? I had the impression that all Varys said to Kevan Lannister in Pycelle's room was the truth.

Blackfyres thought that they are rightful rulers of 7K, based on Aegon IV giving Targaryen ancestral sword to Daemon and not to Daeron. Thus, if Varys is a Blackfyre and fAegon is also a Blackfyre, then Varys really believes that fAegon has a right to become the King of 7K. Possibly in Varys' opinion all Targaryens are usurpers, while Blackfyres were unjustly exiled and persecuted. In this context, all that Varys said to Kevan is the truth, even in case if fAegon is not that Aegon.

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On 11/26/2019 at 2:49 AM, Greywater-Watch said:

This Theory looks nice to me, with Varys being the mummer. It has one flaw though: Why would Varys then not tell the truth about Aegon being a fake to Kevan, when he was about to die? I had the impression that all Varys said to Kevan Lannister in Pycelle's room was the truth.

Varys's evil monologue in the Epilogue to Dance is one of the most intriguing passages in all of ASOIAF. So, what was the George telling us? This is where it begins (I only omitted a short, non-relevant exchange with Cersei)...

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He might have said more, but the dark-haired novice with the round cheeks returned to say, "My lord, my lady, I am sorry to intrude, but there is a boy below. Grand Maester Pycelle begs the favor of the Lord Regent's presence at once.

If we suspect that the boy below was one of Varys's little birds, and that he could not speak, then how did he pass the information to the dark-haired novice? Did he give a written note to Ser Meryn, who kept him waiting below, with Meryn then relaying the summons to the dark-haired novice? Or was the dark-haired novice working for Varys? 

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Dark wings, dark words, Ser Kevan thought. Could Storm' s End have fallen? Or might this be word from Bolton in the north? . . .

The summons said nothing about a raven, yet The George, through Kevan's thoughts, has us thinking about ravens right off the bat. 

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The messenger was a boy of eight or nine, so bundled up in fur he seemed a bear cub. Trant had kept him waiting out on the drawbridge rather than admit him into Maegor's. "Go find a fire, lad," Ser Kevan told him, pressing a penny into his hand. "I know the way to the rookery well enough."

Since we know the boy was sent by Varys, and since the boy did not speak when he was met by Kevan, we can assume that he is one of Varys's little birds, whom we assume have their tongues removed and learn their letters before arriving in King's Landing.

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The snow had finally stopped falling. Behind a veil of ragged clouds, a full moon floated fat and white as a snowball. The stars shone cold and distant. As Ser Kevan made his way across the inner ward, the castle seemed an alien place, where every keep and tower had grown icy teeth, and all familiar paths had vanished beneath a white blanket. Once an icicle long as a spear fell to shatter by his feet. Autumn in King' s Landing, he brooded. What must it be like up on the Wall? 

The author is clearly setting a creepy mood here, with a full moon, stars shining cold and distant, an alien landscape with icy teeth, no familiar paths, and a spear of ice falling near him.

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The door was opened by a serving girl, a skinny thing in a fur-lined robe much too big for her. Ser Kevan stamped the snow off his boots, removed his cloak, tossed it to her. "The Grand Maester is expecting me," he announced. The girl nodded, solemn and silent, and pointed to the steps.

We know this girl is working for Varys, and her silence is pointed out by the George. Notice that she does not depart from the room.

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Pycelle's chambers were beneath the rookery, a spacious suite of rooms cluttered with racks of herbs and salves and potions and shelves jammed full of books and scrolls. Ser Kevan had always found them uncomfortably hot. Not tonight. Once past the chamber door, the chill was palpable. Black ash and dying embers were all that remained of the hearthfire. A few flickering candles cast pools of dim light here and there. The rest was shrouded in shadow except beneath the open window, where a spray of ice crystals glittered in the moonlight, swirling in the wind.

Now, we know that something is very wrong since the window has been left open and the fire has been allowed to die on a cold night. And consider that imagery... dying embers in black ash--not gray ash, but black ash. Burning embers are red, but as they die, the red turns to black.  

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On the window seat a raven loitered, pale, huge, its feathers ruffled. It was the largest raven that Kevan Lannister had ever seen. Larger than any hunting hawk at Casterly Rock, larger than the largest owl. Blowing snow danced around it, and the moon painted it silver.

Not silver. White. The bird is white.

The white ravens of the Citadel did not carry messages, as their dark cousins did. When they went forth from Oldtown, it was for one purpose only: to herald a change of seasons.

"Winter," said Ser Kevan. The word made a white mist in the air. He turned away from the window.

This is our first confirmation that winter has finally come. And notice that Kevan's breath upon speaking made a white mist in the air. So now the reader has been told to think about ravens and mists and ... Bloodraven? Recall what we learned from Dunk...

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How many eyes does Lord Bloodraven have? the riddle ran. A thousand eyes, and one. Some claimed the King's Hand was a student of the dark arts who could change his face, put on the likeness of a one-eyed dog, even turn into a mist. Packs of gaunt gray wolves hunted down his foes, men said, and carrion crows spied for him and whispered secrets in his ear.

The Mystery Knight

Turning back to the passage at hand...

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Then something slammed him in the chest between the ribs, hard as a giant's fist. It drove the breath from him and sent him lurching backwards. The white raven took to the air, its pale wings slapping him about the head.

First note abrupt change from creepy to the quarrel slamming into Kevan's chest, like modulation in a musical composition.

But why would the raven, chilling on the window seat, fly across the room to slap Ser Kevan Lannister--formerly the right hand man of the late Tywin of House Lannister, Lord of Caterly Rock, Warden of the West, and Hand of the King--about the head with its pale wings? Earlier in the Epilogue...

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Sweet Tommen burbled about the exploits of his kittens, whilst feeding them morsels of pike off his own royal plate. "The bad cat was outside my window last night," he informed Kevan at one point, "but Ser Pounce hissed at him and he ran off across the roofs."

"The bad cat?" Ser Kevan said, amused. He is a sweet boy. "An old black tomcat with a torn ear," Cersei told him. "A filthy thing, and foul-tempered. He clawed Joff's hand once." She made a face. "The cats keep the rats down, I know, but that one … he's been known to attack ravens in the rookery."

 

And that, of course recalls the one-eared tom that Arya chased...

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"That's the real king of this castle right there," one of the gold cloaks had told her. "Older than sin and twice as mean. One time, the king was feasting the queen's father, and that black bastard hopped up on the table and snatched a roast quail right out of Lord Tywin's fingers. Robert laughed so hard he like to burst. You stay away from that one, child."

Arya III, Game 32

And this, from another evil monologue by Varys...

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"Rhaenys was a child too. Prince Rhaegar's daughter. A precious little thing, younger than your girls. She had a small black kitten she called Balerion, did you know? I always wondered what happened to him. Rhaenys liked to pretend he was the true Balerion, the Black Dread of old, but I imagine the Lannisters taught her the difference between a kitten and a dragon quick enough, the day they broke down her door."

There is a theory of course that Rhaenys's kitten grew into the one-eared tom, and that Bloodraven skinchanges the one-eared Tom. Perhaps he was also skinchanging the white raven here? 

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Ser Kevan half-sat and half-fell onto the window seat. What ... who ... A quarrel was sunk almost to the fletching in his chest. No. No, that was how my brother died. Blood was seeping out around the shaft. "Pycelle," he muttered, confused. "Help me ... I ... "

Then he saw. Grand Maester Pycelle was seated at his table, his head pillowed on the great leather-bound tome before him. Sleeping, Kevan thought until he blinked and saw the deep red gash in the old man's spotted skull and the blood pooled beneath his head, staining the pages of his book. All around his candle were bits of bone and brain, islands in a lake of melted wax.

He wanted guards, Ser Kevan thought. I should have sent him guards. Could Cersei have been right all along? Was this his nephew's work?

"Tyrion?" he called. "Where ... ?"

"Far away," a half-familiar voice replied.

He stood in a pool of shadow by a bookcase, plump, pale-faced, round-shouldered, clutching a crossbow in soft powdered hands. Silk slippers swaddled his feet.

"Varys?" The eunuch set the crossbow down.

"Ser Kevan. Forgive me if you can. I bear you no ill will. This was not done from malice. It was for the realm. For the children."

 

I cannot take that last sentence at face value.

The first statement, the plea for forgiveness, and the testament that Varys is not murdering Kevan out of malice appears believable.

Kevan's good works are an obstacle to Varys's effort to pave the way for the Blackfyre. And that ties into the penultimate sentence, that he murdered Kevan for the realm--not for the good of the realm, mind you--but for the realm. The king and the land are one, after all. 

But for the children? Which children would those be? The ones Varys has mutilated and disabled to serve his purpose? The little ones that were slaughtered or traumatized and left for dead, especially in the Riverlands, during the War of the Five Kings, like poor Weasel?

Meribald works for the children, not Varys. 

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"I have children. I have a wife. Oh, Dorna. Pain washed over him. He closed his eyes, opened them again. "There are there are hundreds of Lannister guardsmen in this castle."

"But none in this room, thankfully. This pains me, my lord. You do not deserve to die alone on such a cold dark night. There are many like you, good men in service to bad causes but you were threatening to undo all the queen's good work, to reconcile Highgarden and Casterly Rock, bind the Faith to your little king, unite the Seven Kingdoms under Tommen's rule. So ... 

Again, I ask, if Kevan was laying the foundation for a lasting peace, and if Varys wants a lasting peace, why did Varys murder Kevan?

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A gust of wind blew up. Ser Kevan shivered violently. "Are you cold, my lord?" asked Varys. "Do forgive me. The Grand Maester befouled himself in dying, and the stink was so abominable that I thought I might choke."

Ser Kevan tried to rise, but the strength had left him. He could not feel his legs.

"I thought the crossbow fitting. You shared so much with Lord Tywin, why not that? Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen."

Is more war, on the heels of a horribly destructive conflict, and at the onset of what will most likely be a brutal winter, truly in the best interest of the children?

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"Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm's End and the lords of the realm gather round him."

"Aegon?" For a moment he did not understand. Then he remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains. "Dead. He's dead."

"No." The eunuch's voice seemed deeper. "He is here."

Now, we learn, without doubt, that Varys, along with Illyrio, supports Aegon. And there is no denying that the George is leading us to believe that Kevan and Varys are referring to the same Aegon.

But is the George actually telling us that these Aegons are one and the same, or is he only leading us to this conclusion? The ambiguity suggests the latter. 

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"Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."

Based on this passage, and Vary's rise from a challenging childhood, many readers believe that Varys wants to install a benevolent sovereign.

But I interpret this as Varys saying something like, "Oho, our claimant is better than your claimant." It reminds me of Eustace's monologue to Dunk about the virtues of Daemon Blackfyre over Daeron Targaryen, albeit for different justifications.

But do the ends justify the means? Did Varys spend the last couple of decades putting the children first? 

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Kevan Lannister tried to cry out ... to his guards, his wife, his brother ... but the words would not come. Blood dribbled from his mouth. He shuddered violently.

"I am sorry." Varys wrung his hands. "You are suffering, I know, yet here I stand going on like some silly old woman. Time to make an end to it."

 

Notice how the George acknowledges the evil monologue to the reader. 

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The eunuch pursed his lips and gave a little whistle.

Like Jiminy Cricket. Does Varys have a conscience? 

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Ser Kevan was cold as ice, and every labored breath sent a fresh stab of pain through him. He glimpsed movement, heard the soft scuffling sound of slippered feet on stone. A child emerged from a pool of darkness, a pale boy in a ragged robe, no more than nine or ten. Another rose up behind the Grand Maester's chair. The girl who had opened the door for him was there as well.

She never left. 

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They were all around him, half a dozen of them, white-faced children with dark eyes, boys and girls together.

I would assume they are white-faced because Varys keeps his mutilated and disabled little children toiling in the tunnels of the Red Keep so that one day, a king will come to put his people first, and live and rule for the children. (How can I set the font for sarcastic?) 

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And in their hands, the daggers.

Valar morghulis. 

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1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Based on this passage, and Vary's rise from a challenging childhood, many readers believe that Varys wants to install a benevolent sovereign.

But I interpret this as Varys saying something like, "Oho, our claimant is better than your claimant." It reminds me of Eustace's monologue to Dunk about the virtues of Daemon Blackfyre over Daeron Targaryen, albeit for different justifications.

But do the ends justify the means? Did Varys spend the last couple of decades putting the children first? 

I am sorry but it just doesn t make sense. Varys talks about puting a king in charge that rules for the people. However he is willing to kill several good men and instigate a war where thousands of innocents will die for the possibility that a good king will be in charge...

Well, I am sorry to inform but even good kings like egg or jaeherys had descendentes that were awfull kings… Then since the rebellion that varys had already decided that neither robert or his heir would be good kings… How could he know that?

Finally, is a good person a good king? Because in the words of aemon "there were bad men that were great kings and good men that were awfull kngs"(or something similar. I think aegon's problem's will come from here… Nobody ever thought that a king would need to learn how to lead. And we just saw how 2 good people (danny and jon) failed in their first leading experience.

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13 hours ago, Megorova said:

Blackfyres thought that they are rightful rulers of 7K, based on Aegon IV giving Targaryen ancestral sword to Daemon and not to Daeron. Thus, if Varys is a Blackfyre and fAegon is also a Blackfyre, then Varys really believes that fAegon has a right to become the King of 7K. Possibly in Varys' opinion all Targaryens are usurpers, while Blackfyres were unjustly exiled and persecuted. In this context, all that Varys said to Kevan is the truth, even in case if fAegon is not that Aegon.

Then you must discard as a lie what Aegon tells Tyrion in ADWD chapter 22 (Tyrion 6):

Tyrion learns from Aegon that the child murdered by Gregor Clegane during the Sack of King's Landing was a tanner's son from Pisswater Bend whom Varys purchased and substituted for Aegon in the cradle.

A lie maybe created by Varys and/or Illyrio, which Aegon may even believe to be true.

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5 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Then you must discard as a lie what Aegon tells Tyrion in ADWD chapter 22 (Tyrion 6):

Tyrion learns from Aegon that the child murdered by Gregor Clegane during the Sack of King's Landing was a tanner's son from Pisswater Bend whom Varys purchased and substituted for Aegon in the cradle.

A lie maybe created by Varys and/or Illyrio, which Aegon may even believe to be true. 

Yes, I think that even fAegon was made to believe that he is Prince Aegon, son of Rhaegar Targaryen.

I think that he is a Blackfyre, and that first five or so years of his life he lived in Illyrio's mansion not knowing or caring much about who he is, or what is his ancestry (children don't concern themselves with things like that, they just live). Probably Aegon is his real name, or he had some sort of name that is very similar to Aegon, something like Vaegon or Rhaegon (some Blackfyres had names similar to Targaryen names, for example - T Daeron / B Daemon, T Aerys / B Aenys). So if people around little fAegon were calling him Vaegon, and then changed that to calling him Aegon, then he got used to being called Aegon, and also started to say to others that his name is Aegon, and not whatever it originally was. They could have tricked him by saying that his real name is Aegon, and that previously they were calling him by a different name because he is a Targaryen Prince, and they were hiding his real identity from enemies of Targaryens. And then they brought him to Jon Connington, and to make Jon believe that fAegon is Rhaegar's son, fAegon himself was supposed to believe in it, and think that he is a Targaryen prince.

Though I think that possibly he already knows that actually he is a Blackfyre and not a Targaryen. It seems to me that the change in his attitude is a hint that people from Golden Company revealed to him who he really is, while fAegon was separated from JonCon, prior they met again in their latest chapter of ADWD.

So, possibly now he knows that he is not Rhaegar's son, but he still thinks that the Iron Throne is rightfully his, because Aegon IV gave his sword to a Blackfyre not to Targaryens. And maybe now he thinks that tricking JonCon into believing that he is Rhaegar's son, and thus making him motivated to help fAegon to get the crown of 7K, is also justified. Varys or whoever could have presented the situation in which they are, under sauce that King Daeron unrightfully tried to imprison Daemon (after which Daemon had no other choice besides starting a rebellion); then Bloodraven dishonorably killed Daemon and his two sons on the Redgrass Field, when Daemon was helping Gwayne Corbray; then Targaryens killed Daemon II, while he was their prisoner; then Bloodraven lured Aenys into a trap and killed him. So fAegon could have been made to think that after all those betrayals, that Blackfyres suffered from Targaryens, it will be appropriate, if such an avid supporter of Targaryens as JonCon, will help to one of Blackfyres to get to Iron Throne. Though while fAegon was a child, they were hiding his real (Blackfyre) identity even from him, that way it was easier to keep him safe, and later to trick JonCon into helping them to achieve their goal.

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11 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Yes, I think that even fAegon was made to believe that he is Prince Aegon, son of Rhaegar Targaryen.

I think that he is a Blackfyre, and that first five or so years of his life he lived in Illyrio's mansion not knowing or caring much about who he is, or what is his ancestry (children don't concern themselves with things like that, they just live). Probably Aegon is his real name, or he had some sort of name that is very similar to Aegon, something like Vaegon or Rhaegon (some Blackfyres had names similar to Targaryen names, for example - T Daeron / B Daemon, T Aerys / B Aenys). So if people around little fAegon were calling him Vaegon, and then changed that to calling him Aegon, then he got used to being called Aegon, and also started to say to others that his name is Aegon, and not whatever it originally was. They could have tricked him by saying that his real name is Aegon, and that previously they were calling him by a different name because he is a Targaryen Prince, and they were hiding his real identity from enemies of Targaryens. And then they brought him to Jon Connington, and to make Jon believe that fAegon is Rhaegar's son, fAegon himself was supposed to believe in it, and think that he is a Targaryen prince.

Though I think that possibly he already knows that actually he is a Blackfyre and not a Targaryen. It seems to me that the change in his attitude is a hint that people from Golden Company revealed to him who he really is, while fAegon was separated from JonCon, prior they met again in their latest chapter of ADWD.

So, possibly now he knows that he is not Rhaegar's son, but he still thinks that the Iron Throne is rightfully his, because Aegon IV gave his sword to a Blackfyre not to Targaryens. And maybe now he thinks that tricking JonCon into believing that he is Rhaegar's son, and thus making him motivated to help fAegon to get the crown of 7K, is also justified. Varys or whoever could have presented the situation in which they are, under sauce that King Daeron unrightfully tried to imprison Daemon (after which Daemon had no other choice besides starting a rebellion); then Bloodraven dishonorably killed Daemon and his two sons on the Redgrass Field, when Daemon was helping Gwayne Corbray; then Targaryens killed Daemon II, while he was their prisoner; then Bloodraven lured Aenys into a trap and killed him. So fAegon could have been made to think that after all those betrayals, that Blackfyres suffered from Targaryens, it will be appropriate, if such an avid supporter of Targaryens as JonCon, will help to one of Blackfyres to get to Iron Throne. Though while fAegon was a child, they were hiding his real (Blackfyre) identity even from him, that way it was easier to keep him safe, and later to trick JonCon into helping them to achieve their goal.

A very complex but possible theory you elaborate here.

What exactly makes you tend to this theory instead of the much easier one, i.e. that Varys really exchanged the babys?

I mean, there must be something that causes your disbelief in the simpler version. What is that? I really would like to know.

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I think GRRM introduced Jon Snow switching Mance Rayder's son with Gilly's for the narrative purpose of Aegon being switched for the tanner's son. It is feasible, it can be done. And it's something that Jon does at the risk of his own life. 

 

15 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

But do the ends justify the means? Did Varys spend the last couple of decades putting the children first? 

I think it does for these characters. And we have instances in which Varys does try to save children. Gendry is nothing to him, but he sends him away to save his life. And he probably have done the same with Barra, he just didn't think that Cersei would be cruel enough to have a baby murdered, but he should have known better since Tywin did not have a problem ordering the murders of Rhaegar's children.

When Varys asks for 50 more little birds, he tells Illyrio to treat them gently, which is such a stupid thing to say when we know those children are going to be mutilated, that some of them will not even survive having their tongues removed. 

I don't think Varys is as malicious as Littlefinger for instance, or nearly as cruel as some of the other characters. But I very much think that the ends justifies the means for him. I also think we have to look at his actions removed from this whole Blackfyre speculation, which I find tends to cloud everything about him.

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3 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

What exactly makes you tend to this theory instead of the much easier one, i.e. that Varys really exchanged the babys?

I mean, there must be something that causes your disbelief in the simpler version. What is that? I really would like to know.

Two reasons - logical and logistical improbability of those babies being switched.

Based on what is known about Varys and his actions at Targaryen court, he was in "anti-Rhaegar coalition". Thus, there was no reason for him to save Rhaegar's son. Or for Elia to trust Varys and agree to take part in any of his plans concerning her family.

There was no way for anyone to know beforehand that Tywin Lannister will order his people to scale the wall of Maegor's Holfast, and that those people will kill Rhaegar's wife and children, and that the boy will be killed in such a manner that his remnants will be unidentifiable, which will make it possible to present some other dead baby as Aegon's body. No one knew beforehand that that will happen, thus there was no need beforehand to find a "double" for little Aegon, to later present his remnants as Aegon's remnants.

When Rhaegar died and it became known that the rebel forces are rushing towards King's Landing, and it became apparent that the royal family is in danger, they locked themselves in the Red Keep. If they thought that it's possible that their enemies will get them even inside Maegor's holdfast, then why didn't they escaped from King's Landing? Aerys was mad, but Elia wasn't.

If it was possible for Varys to go out of the Red Keep to the streets of King's Landing, while the city was sacked by Lannisters, to find there a baby similar to little Aegon, and to get back to Red Keep, and all of that unnoticed, then why instead of doing all of that he didn't just took Elia and both of her kids out of the castle?

It seems highly unlikely that while the city was under siege, and Tywin's soldiers got thru and started to kill people, that Varys by pure luck had found a baby boy that looked enough like little Aegon, and convinced Elia that her son is in mortal danger and thus she has to give him (out of all people!) to Varys, and to take instead of him some other boy, and pretend that that baby is her Aegon. If Elia believed that they were in danger, then why didn't she escaped from the Red Keep, and didn't went with her children to Dorne, under protection of Martells?

If it was Varys who brought that other baby to Elia, then how did he do it? How come no one noticed that he came into Elia's chamber with a baby? No one would have noticed him nor the baby only if he was using one of secret passages of the Red Keep. And if he came into Elia's chamber using secret passage, then why Elia didn't insisted on taking both of her children to escape thru that passage from the Red Keep and to go to Dorne? Why instead of saving herself and both of her children, she gave her child to Varys and stayed in the Red Keep with Rhaenys and pisswater prince? Elia wasn't stupid, she was aware that Varys was not Rhaegar's supporter, thus there's very little possibility that she gave her son to Varys, and decided to willingly play a role in Varys' plans.

 

It's illogical for Varys to save Rhaegar's child. It's illogical for Elia to take part in Varys' plan. It's illogical for a mother to save only one of her two children, and let the other one (Rhaenys) to die. It's illogical to replace Aegon with a double, without knowing that soon that baby will be killed in a manner that will make this switching useful. And there's no way for anyone to know that it (Aegon's death) will happen the way it happened. There was no need for a double until after Aegon's death, and by the time when the death did happened, it would have been already too late to make the switch. And that story about how and when Varys supposedly took that other baby and switched him with fAegon, is too convinient to be true. The timing and logistics are unrealistic.

That's why Tyrion immediately figured out that that story, that fAegon told him, is bullshit.

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12 hours ago, Megorova said:

Two reasons - logical and logistical improbability of those babies being switched.

Based on what is known about Varys and his actions at Targaryen court, he was in "anti-Rhaegar coalition". Thus, there was no reason for him to save Rhaegar's son. Or for Elia to trust Varys and agree to take part in any of his plans concerning her family.

There was no way for anyone to know beforehand that Tywin Lannister will order his people to scale the wall of Maegor's Holfast, and that those people will kill Rhaegar's wife and children, and that the boy will be killed in such a manner that his remnants will be unidentifiable, which will make it possible to present some other dead baby as Aegon's body. No one knew beforehand that that will happen, thus there was no need beforehand to find a "double" for little Aegon, to later present his remnants as Aegon's remnants.

When Rhaegar died and it became known that the rebel forces are rushing towards King's Landing, and it became apparent that the royal family is in danger, they locked themselves in the Red Keep. If they thought that it's possible that their enemies will get them even inside Maegor's holdfast, then why didn't they escaped from King's Landing? Aerys was mad, but Elia wasn't.

If it was possible for Varys to go out of the Red Keep to the streets of King's Landing, while the city was sacked by Lannisters, to find there a baby similar to little Aegon, and to get back to Red Keep, and all of that unnoticed, then why instead of doing all of that he didn't just took Elia and both of her kids out of the castle?

It seems highly unlikely that while the city was under siege, and Tywin's soldiers got thru and started to kill people, that Varys by pure luck had found a baby boy that looked enough like little Aegon, and convinced Elia that her son is in mortal danger and thus she has to give him (out of all people!) to Varys, and to take instead of him some other boy, and pretend that that baby is her Aegon. If Elia believed that they were in danger, then why didn't she escaped from the Red Keep, and didn't went with her children to Dorne, under protection of Martells?

If it was Varys who brought that other baby to Elia, then how did he do it? How come no one noticed that he came into Elia's chamber with a baby? No one would have noticed him nor the baby only if he was using one of secret passages of the Red Keep. And if he came into Elia's chamber using secret passage, then why Elia didn't insisted on taking both of her children to escape thru that passage from the Red Keep and to go to Dorne? Why instead of saving herself and both of her children, she gave her child to Varys and stayed in the Red Keep with Rhaenys and pisswater prince? Elia wasn't stupid, she was aware that Varys was not Rhaegar's supporter, thus there's very little possibility that she gave her son to Varys, and decided to willingly play a role in Varys' plans.

 

It's illogical for Varys to save Rhaegar's child. It's illogical for Elia to take part in Varys' plan. It's illogical for a mother to save only one of her two children, and let the other one (Rhaenys) to die. It's illogical to replace Aegon with a double, without knowing that soon that baby will be killed in a manner that will make this switching useful. And there's no way for anyone to know that it (Aegon's death) will happen the way it happened. There was no need for a double until after Aegon's death, and by the time when the death did happened, it would have been already too late to make the switch. And that story about how and when Varys supposedly took that other baby and switched him with fAegon, is too convinient to be true. The timing and logistics are unrealistic.

That's why Tyrion immediately figured out that that story, that fAegon told him, is bullshit.

I have to contradict in the following points:

1) Varys was not on the Rebel's side. According to Jaime (ASOS, Jaime 5) Varys counselled King Aerys not to open the gates to Tywin Lannister. It was Pycelle who gave bad counsel to King Aerys.

2) ... it became apparent that the royal family is in danger, they locked themselves in the Red Keep. If they thought that it's possible that their enemies will get them even inside Maegor's holdfast, then why didn't they escaped from King's Landing? Aerys was mad, but Elia wasn't."

Same chapter (ASOS, Jame 5): Aerys forbid Elia to flee but locked her and the children up.

 

As to logistics and the possibility to prepare the swap of Children: If there is one Person in King's Landing able to anticipate a possible dangerous situation and to enter any chamber in Maegor's Keep unnoticed, then it is Varys. The change of children to keep the one to protect hidden, is also done by Tyrion for Myrcella when she is sent to Dorne. so that strategy is not unknown.

Where I have more issues is that you rightly mention that Elia must have been aware of the swap. But on the other hand, in that desperate situation I think as a mother she would do everything to keep at least one of her babies protected.

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The stone beast is Jon Snow, the "shadow."  A shadow birthed through magic.  Created by blocked light, by the Others. He will make himself king of the north. Dany will roast him for laying claim to what is not his.  Stannis is the blue eyed king with the red sword.  He was propped up as the Azor Ahai.  That will also be proven wrong and will end in his execution.  The mummer's dragon does not necessarily mean an actor is propping up the dragon.  It means the false dragon is the actor.  He is not the true heir to Westeros.  He will also get roasted for taking what is not his.  They will lay claim to Westeros, which is not theirs, and get themselves killed. 

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38 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

I think it's about Dany realizing the truth about herself. She's been lying to herself about her goodness. Bride of fire, daughter of death, all three phrases are about her, exclusively.

I wanna make sure I understand. Are you saying that she is not the "slayer of lies?" 

If so, can you elaborate and in my first post in this thread, I pointed that right in this instant, the slayer of lies was Sam, who was nicknamed "Slayer" by Grenn. Marwyn calls him Slayer as well when he meets him the very first time. I don't think the nickname is a coincidence.

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20 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I wanna make sure I understand. Are you saying that she is not the "slayer of lies?" 

If so, can you elaborate and in my first post in this thread, I pointed that right in this instant, the slayer of lies was Sam, who was nicknamed "Slayer" by Grenn. Marwyn calls him Slayer as well when he meets him the very first time. I don't think the nickname is a coincidence.

Yes, I think she’s the slayer and also the lie. I think it would be odd to throw Sam in there when the other two phrases refer to her, but we’re all guessing here.

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On 11/27/2019 at 2:48 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Varys's evil monologue in the Epilogue to Dance is one of the most intriguing passages in all of ASOIAF. So, what was the George telling us? This is where it begins (I only omitted a short, non-relevant exchange with Cersei)...

 

Could tell me in your scenario of the reason Varys chose to kill Pycelle the way he did? Rather than using the crossbow, he used the blunt side to kill him? Also why did Varys have a bunch of kids stab Kevan in the end?

Edited by Crona

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4 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Yes, I think she’s the slayer and also the lie. I think it would be odd to throw Sam in there when the other two phrases refer to her, but we’re all guessing here.

It's her being the lie that I'm not getting. Can you elaborate?

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2 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

It's her being the lie that I'm not getting. Can you elaborate?

Dany is supressing her true feelings. Throughout she is trying to convince herself that she's a benevolent, good hearted ruler. For example:

“His home, not mine. Her home was back in Meereen, with her husband and her lover. That was where she belonged, surely.
Keep walking. If I look back I am lost. . . She had to don her crown again and return to her ebon bench and the arms of her noble husband. Hizdahr, of the tepid kisses.”

She doesn't want to do any of this and is lying to herself. What she does want to do is ride Drogon because on his back she says she feels "whole" but she also doesn't want to be seen that way, which causes her to put up a front. The great stone beast leaping from a smoking tower is Dany realizing the truth about her feelings, acting like an avenging dragon, and doing what she wants to do.

Edited by Rose of Red Lake

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