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Heresy 228 and one over the eight

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19 hours ago, corbon said:

Thats what I see here. If you have to twist parallels that deep, then its confirmation bias. Your creating them, not finding them. In my opinion. 7vs 3 does not parallel 20 vs 4 for example, or event twenty vs 3 after Ned sent Littlefinger to get help. There's no parallels in the results of the fight, in the dialogue, in anything significant except a few very vague peripheral similarities requiring some twisting,

The fact of the matter is, the event occurs immediately prior to the fever dream. This is not confirmation bias. It's very relevant to the some of the details in his dream.

19 hours ago, corbon said:

Well, that was a particularly bad condensing, because it removed the context which was against your argument and made it look like an independent thought.

You were objecting to my beginning a new paragraph about "riding through a rainy night". As I've explained I was condensing the text, but I chose to make a  new paragraph, because I was focusing on a specific segment in Ned's train of thought. The paragraph prior was the segment about Ned's vows, and the paragraph after was the segment about seeing Jon in his mind's eye. Little segments like tiny train cars in a long winding train of thought. There is no question that the whole train is connected. One thought leads to the next.

19 hours ago, corbon said:

But he's explicitly comparing to the promises he made Lyanna, something you conveniently condensed out and then argued away from.

I believe its more nuanced than that. Barra's mother said:

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And tell him I've not been with no one else. I swear it, milord, by the old gods and new. Chataya said I could have half a year, for the baby, and for hoping he'd come back. So you'll tell him I'm waiting won't you? I don't want no jewels or nothing, just him. He was always good to me, truly."

Good to  you, Ned thought hollowly. "I will tell him, child, and I promise you, Barra shall not go wanting."

She had smiled then, a smile so tremulous and sweet that it cut the heart out of him. Riding through the rainy night, Ned saw Jon Snow's face in front of him, so like a younger version of his own. If the gods frowned so on bastards, he thought dully, m why did they fill men with such lusts? "Lord Baelish, what do  you know of Robert's bastards?"

 

Context is everything, my dear Corbon. You obviously believe Jon's parents are Rhaegar and Lyanna, so of course you apply the young girls's words to Lyanna, but she wasn't the only young girl in Ned's life that gave up child. I believe that Ned was thinking about Ashara and how he had treated her. IMO Ned fathered Jon on Ashara and may even had planned to marry her after the war, but when Robert got cornered in Stoney Sept he had to make a deal with Hoster Tully in order to get soldiers, so he married Catelyn.

When the young girl claims Robert was always good to her, those words struck at Ned's heart. If Ashara gave birth to Ned's bastard and he couldn't marry her, what were her prospects? Could her family make a good match for her or would her fate be more like Lollys Stokeworth and be forced into a marriage beneath her station? I think Ashara did not want that fate for herself, so she faked her own death, and left her child in Ned's care. At least he'd be raised in his father's house, but that wouldn't make it any less easier for her to leave him.

The young girl's words to Ned reminds me of Gilly when Jon told her she must go along with his baby swap. I am quite confident that history repeats itself and that Jon was somehow only one of two babes. Is it possible that Ashara had escaped Kings Landing with the real Aegon?

I'm going to go over a proposed scenario. Hopefully you can read it with an open mind. It is, after all, just a theory....but, perhaps you'll have a better understanding of my position when I say interpretation is "context".

Try to imagine the following text with different players. Gilly is Ashara (and in some instances Rhaella), Craster is King Aerys, Sam is Ned, Dalla is Elia, Mance is Rhaegar, Dalla's boy is Aegon, and Jon is, well, he needs to be someone in a position of authority. Jon is a Lord Commander and was named after Jon Arryn, so I believe he's Jon Arryn. I'm still working on identifying the Lord o'Bones, but I'm leaning towards Tywin Lannister.

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"I have something hard to tell you." He almost said ask, but caught himself at the last instant. 

"Is it Mance? Val begged the king to spare him. She said she'd let some kneeler marry her and never slit his throat if only Mance could live. That Lord o'Bones, he's to be spared. Craster always swore he'd kill him if he ever showed his face about the keep. Mance never did half the things he done."

All Mance ever did was lead an army down upon the realm he once swore to protect. "Mance said our words, Gilly. Then he turned his cloak, wed Dalla, and crowned himself King-Beyond-the-Wall. His life is in the king's hands now. It's not him we need to talk about. It's his son. Dalla's boy."

"The babe?" Her voice trembled. "He never broke no oath, m'lord. He sleeps and cries and sucks, is all; he's never done no harm to no one. Don't let her burn him. Save him, please."

"Only you can do that, Gilly." Jon told her how.

 

I have a theory that King Aerys II was burning babes - dragonseed - in his attempts to hatch dragon eggs. So when Gilly/Ashara begs Jon/Jon Arryn to not allow the babe to burn, she's talking about Aegon, and indirectly about Jon Snow (Monster).

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Another woman would have shrieked at him, cursed him, damned him down to seven hells. Another woman might have flown at him in rage, slapped him, kicked him, raked at his eyes with her nails. Another woman might have thrown her defiance in his teeth.

Gilly shook her head. "No. Please, no."

The raven picked up the word. "No," it screamed.

"Refuse, and the boy will burn. Not on the morrow, nor the day after...but soon, whenever Melisandre needs to wake a dragon or raise a wind or work some other spell requiring king's blood. Mance will be ash and bone by then, so she will claim his son for the fire, and Stannis will not deny her. If you do not take the boy away, she will burn him."

"I'll go," said Gilly. "I'll take him, I'll take the both o'them, Dalla's boy and mind." Tears rolled down her cheeks. If not for the way the candle made them glisten, Jon might never have known that she was weeping. Craster's wives would have taught their daughters to shed their tears into a pillow. Perhaps they went outside to weep, well away from Craster's fists.

Jon closed the fingers of his sword hand. "Take both boys and the queen's men will ride after you and drag you back. The boy will still burn...and you with him." If I comfort her, she may think that tears can move me. She has to realize that I will not yield. "You'll take one boy, and that one Dalla's."

 

Jon/Jon Arryn is telling Gily/Ashara that she is to go into exile, but that she can only take one boy - Dalla's boy/Elia's boy, Aegon. 

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A mother can't leave her son, or else she's cursed forever. Not a son. We saved him, Sam and me. Please. Please, m'lord. We saved him from the cold."

Gilly/Ashara and Sam/Ned saved Monster/Jon Snow from the cold. In other words, from dying. I think Ashara was pregnant at court and was trying to hide it or she wanted to escape with the child so Aerys wouldn't kill him. Aerys would not want a Stark bastard to live. Hiding the child is one interpretation of "exposure". She didn't want her child exposed to danger. Craster left his sons to die of exposure, but Ashara fled court before Jon could be killed.  

The same could be said about Rhaella. She could have fled with Aegon, or simply her pregnant self, because she didn't want her child or her grandson to be exposed and burned as dragonseed.

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"Men say that freezing to death is almost peaceful. Fire, though...do  you see the candle, Gilly?"

She looked at the flame. "Yes."

"Touch it. Put your hand over the flame."

Her big brown eyes grew bigger still. She did not move.

"Do it." Kill the boy. "Now."

Trembling, the girl reached out her hand, held it well above the flickering candle flame.

"Down. Let it kiss you."

Gilly lowered her hand. An inch. Another. When the flame licked her flesh, she snatched her hand back and began to sob.

"Fire is a cruel way to die. Dalla died to give this child life, but you have nourished him, cherished him. You saved your own boy from the ice. Now save hers from the fire."

"They'll burn my babe, then. The red woman. If she can't have Dalla's, she'll burn mine."

"Your son has no king's blood. Melisandre gains nothing by giving him to the fire. Stannis wants the free folk to fight for him, he will not burn an innocent without good cause. Your boy will be safe. I will find a wet nurse for him and he'll be raised here at Castle Black under my protection. He'll learn to hunt and ride, to fight with sword and axe and bow. I'll even see that he is taught to read and write." Sam would like that. "And when he is old enough, he will learn the truth of who he is. He'll be free to seek you out if that is what he wants."

You will make a crow of him." She wiped at her tears with the back of a small pale hand. "I won't. I won't."

Kill the boy, thought Jon. "You will. Else I promise you, the day that they burn Dalla's boy,  yours will die as well."

 

Jon/Jon Arryn is listing all the risks of Gilly/Ashara/Rhaella keeping Monster/Jon Snow/Aegon, and all the benefits to being raised at Castle Black/Winterfell/Braavos.

<snip>

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.....He turned to Black Jack Bulwer. "Make as good a time as you can, but take no foolish risks. You have an old man and a suckling babe with you. See that you keep them warm and well fed."

"You do the same, m'lord." Gilly did not seem in any haste to climb into the way. "You do the same for t'other. Find another wet nurse, like you said. You promised me you would. The boy ... Dalla's boy ... the little prince, I mean ... you find him some good woman, so he grows up big and strong."

"You have my word."

"Don't you name him. Don't  you do that, till he's past two years. It's ill luck to name them when they're still on the breast. You crows may not know that, but it's true."

"As you command, my lady."

"Don't you call me that. I'm a mother, not a lady. I'm Craster's wife and Craster's daughter, and a mother."....

 

I think Rhaella took the real Aegon with her into exile, and that Ashara went home in disguise as Wylla.

I wonder who Black Jack Bulwer might be? He could be Jon Connington or Haldon Halfmaester. In any case, Gilly/Ashara/Rhaella doesn't want to be known as a "lady". Only a "mother". One thing that really struck with me is Gilly's insistence that she's "Craster's wife and Craster's daughter" . This really emphasizes the incest aspect, which plays into the theory that Septa Lenore is really Rhaella much better than being Ashara.

19 hours ago, corbon said:

She did plead. "Tell him ... tell him.. won't you?"
its clear she is pleading for help, for the child's future. Ned can hear this, even if you refuse to, for his answer is not just that he will tell the king, but that Barra will not go wanting.

There was no pleading. It was more of a request. The use of "as it please you" is about as respectful as it gets. She's a commoner and Ned a noble. Commoners don't try to force nobles to do anything lest the noble punish them.

Here's the actual quote:

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"Tell him that when you see him, milord, as it … as it please you. Tell him how beautiful she is."

Your "Tell him...tell him...won't you?" is very misleading. You are doing the very thing you accuse me of doing.

 

Edited by Melifeather

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10 hours ago, corbon said:

Thats rather unlikely. Its doubtful anyone knew, or even expected, Rhaegar to actually enter or win. I don;t think its something that can be effectively planned in advance. Note that even when that thing was tried, in a far far more controlled environment, it failed miserably.

I think everyone let Rhaegar win. When Robert wanted to compete in the Hands Tourney, Ned told him as much. So allowing Rhaegar to win hints towards the blue rose laurel being a set-up. Of course they couldn't be sure he'd give the laurel to Lyanna, but since Rhaegar is so keen on history, surely he knew blue roses were Winterfell flowers and maybe he just wanted to give them to a daughter of Winterfell?

4 hours ago, LynnS said:

In reading the passages about Sansa and Lady;  I wonder if they represent a parallel to Lyanna and Jon.

It seems to me that both Sansa and Lady are stand-ins for Lyanna.  The direwolf , innocent, gentle and beautiful, like Lyanna; who's bones are sent North for burial just as he promised.  Ned again acts on the promise by sending Lady north for burial.

Sansa pleading for life of her wolf pup perhaps not unlike Lyanna pleading for Jon's life.  Robert wanted vengeance and perhaps Ned did as well and it's only after Ned agrees not to seek vengeance that the fear leaves Lyanna's eyes.

Sansa says that Lady is innocent, did no wrong and this may also be a thing that Lyanna said to Ned. Sansa will make sure that Lady is good.  Perhaps Lyanna extracts a promise from Ned to raise Jon to be a good man.   

Lyanna  presses Ned hard for his promises and I wonder why he seems so reluctant to agree.  What does it take for Ned to want to kill an infant unless the truth is horribly disturbing, something that drives him to vengeance.  

Of all the candidates I have in mind; Aerys would be the most disturbing to Ned. Lady/Lyanna deserves better than a butcher. 

If Lady is Lyanna, where does Ned find her 'chained up'?  

What would Catelyn do if she knew?  The thought makes Ned shudder.

 

One theory that I'm still working on is that Ned had to actually give Lyanna the gift of mercy. I got that idea from previewing the Mercy chapter that will be released with Winds, where "mercy" is mentioned 75 times - in just one chapter, and the chapter highlights a play where "Mercy" is gang-raped.

Edited by Melifeather

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"One theory that I'm still working on is that Ned had to actually give Lyanna the gift of mercy. I got that idea from previewing the Mercy chapter that will be released with Winds, where "mercy" is mentioned 75 times - in just one chapter, and the chapter highlights a play where "Mercy" is gang-raped"

You got me here. What?

 

ETA: Sorry. Quoter won't work. Or more than likely, I don't know how to operate it.

Edited by Travis

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5 hours ago, Travis said:

"One theory that I'm still working on is that Ned had to actually give Lyanna the gift of mercy. I got that idea from previewing the Mercy chapter that will be released with Winds, where "mercy" is mentioned 75 times - in just one chapter, and the chapter highlights a play where "Mercy" is gang-raped"

You got me here. What?

 

ETA: Sorry. Quoter won't work. Or more than likely, I don't know how to operate it.

Here’s a link to the released Mercy chapter: http://web.archive.org/web/20150216163605/http://www.georgerrmartin.com/excerpt-from-the-winds-of-winter/

There are three ways to quote on this forum. Click “quote” on bottom left of their post. Or highlight a section of their post and a little “quote selection” box appears. Or you can copy and paste, highlight the pasted text, then at the top of the comment box you’ll find one set of quotation marks “ . Click that and the highlighted text will be placed in a quote box.

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12 hours ago, LynnS said:

Again, that's your definition, not mine. 

No, those were your words, not the part I changed as a joke.

12 hours ago, LynnS said:

The Old dream is a true dream:  the comet and the wights/white walkers have appeared.  Do you deny this? 

I don't even agree that there is a comet and/or white walkers referenced/symbolised in the dream. The symbolic references may connect to those things, but I think there are better things they connect to, things that more closely match the text and context. Especially context.
I think the red streaks of blood are red streaks of blood - probably imagery from Lyanna's bed, rather than a future comet (sky) in the sky though. A blood streaked thing implies to me multiple streaks, not the singular one of a comet.
Blue as the eyes of death - thats just a colour description. The blue things literally are rose petals, again referencing Lyanna. 
Lyanna in her bed of blood is literally the context of the whole dream...

And I don't think these symbolic things are part of the 'old' dream. The old dream is the 'real' stuff at the beginning, as Ned names it an old dream as he recognises the dream opening and defines it by title it. The symbolic weird shit at the end could be interference by outsiders, if you think thats a thing in this case, or fever state messing with the old dream. I tend to the later, accept the possibility of the former.

12 hours ago, LynnS said:

The dream is not something that he has experienced in real life, so it is not a memory per se.  Do you deny this?  

I certainly do for the first part. The very text denies it. "as it was in life". The dream scenes before they fighting starts are clearly based on memory. I disagree with the idea that that scene is multiple memories from different times and places combined, but can accept where its coming from. The idea that its not based on his memories at all is explicitly and obviously false.

12 hours ago, LynnS said:

It's something that will occur in the future.  Do you deny this? 

I don;t deny that it might occur in the future. I deny that it definitely will. I don;t think its a 'future' sending at all, I think its a jumble of other images that contextually relate to the dream - Lyanna's bed of blood.

12 hours ago, LynnS said:

The old dream specifically hasn't changed.   Other memories become attached to it and they aren't random memories but related to the warning.

Of course it's sent by the gods or Bloodraven; whatever it is that intrudes on dreams.   

Its this 'of course' that bothers me. A house built on sand with absolute certainty, when there are other, clear, clean, obvious, contextually more appropriate positions. 

9 hours ago, LynnS said:

When Rhaegar reported back to him on the results of his investigation.

At that stage Rhaegar would have been far from certain of winning. I'm not sure frankly he was even going to enter at that stage. Probably yes, but possibly not.
And its clear that Rhaegar wasn't 'cooperating' with Aerys when he reported back.

9 hours ago, LynnS said:

He is the one who was offended and he's the one who called for the investigation.   Aerys is the king, he can certainly order Rhaegar around and he would have no choice but to obey.

Thats clearly not entirely accurate. There are certain things Aerys can order Rhaegar to do, publicly, and then Rhaegar must do them or be in open rebellion. And there are other things that Aerys can't order Rhaegar to do publicly, and can't publicly punish Rhaegar for not doing.

If you take the position that Aerys and Rhaegar are at odds (and they were in ways, but not necessarily as much as is mooted here often), then its dishonest to also take the position that Rhaegar gave Aerys unquestioning obedience at all times even in private.

9 hours ago, LynnS said:

Placing the crown in Lyanna's lap, from the end of a lance is backhanded compliment in my view.  If he wanted to honor her, he would have gotten down off his horse and placed it on her head with his own hands.   

When did we see anyone doing this?
Knights receiving and giving favours to noble ladies in stands by the point of their lance is a recognisable cultural image, to me.

9 hours ago, LynnS said:

Lyanna is both the winner and the loser.  Aerys won't have any satisfaction in not discovering the identity of the KoLT and he is a vengeful character.  It's Lyanna's wolf blood that ended her life and Brandon's life.  She deserved better than a butcher according do Ned.  Aerys fits the description of  butcher. 

That was specifically Lady, not Lyanna. Lady was actually going to get a butcher. Lyanna got a fever, from a bloody bed. I don;t think its a fair representation to extend that comment in the circumstances.

5 hours ago, Lady Dyanna said:

Now that’s where you and I separated. If we have evidence of magic occurring elsewhere y not then too. 

Because evidence of one thing in one place is not evidence of the same thing in another place?
If there was more supporting evidence for it, then it would have a stronger case. And I don't deny that its possibly true. I just think that it sounds very much like false accusations spread by enemies. I mean, seriously, chased, her, loved her though her skin was cold as ice (how the heck did he keep it up, and how do his enemies know?), and gave her his seed, and soul?
Sounds to me like the 13th LC loved a wildling woman, and some of the brothers and/or his political enemies used it as propaganda to demonise him and after they won it became history, legend and myth.
Its still possible that it was magical shit going down. It just smells exactly like mundane propaganda to me.

5 hours ago, Lady Dyanna said:

Ok. So there are one metric ton of coincidences involved. But from what I can see that is all that you have proven thus far. Why is there a need to go beyond that? 

Because there is a limit to how many coincidences can happen without an outside influence. The limit is higher in literary terms than real terms (for example, the three no-name knights being champions together late in the day before the KotLT appears - no chance outside literature for that amount of lucky coincidence) but even within literature bounds its too much, IMO, not be have some outside influence.
But I don't know for sure, what that influence, is, just think that some guesses (the Old Gods) are better than other guesses. Even then, I'm not taken it as a proven fact that there must be outside interference, just as a strong enough probability that we can afford to assume it for the sake of certain arguments

5 hours ago, Lady Dyanna said:

Just because it’s based upon his own memory it doesn’t mean that someone or something did not manipulate those particular memories. Maybe the dream changes based off of what the current message is that Ned needs to hear? 

That I could accept, but the standard given (not mine) was that the dream can't be changed if its a green dream.

5 hours ago, JNR said:

This has no apparent connection with naming the queen of love of beauty, so where you wrote "ambiguous," I would write "logically unrelated to Harrenhal."

Oh, so your standards and only your standards apply in parallels?
The QoLaB can be, but is not necessarily, a "you're the hottest and i want to bonk you" award.  When a KG wins, its not assumed they are trying to have an affair with the woman they name - it might be looked at more closely for a while, but its not automatically a romantic award. Similarly, if the original 5 champions had somehow maintained their positions through all 5 days and defended their niece/sister as the QoLaB, its would not be a "you're the hottest and i want to bonk you" award, but an "I pay you honour and respect' award.
My parallel works well I think. Lyanna/Monica did something important behind the scenes that only Bill/Rhaegar know about and Bill/Rhaegar award her. It looks dodgy to others, but whether it actually amounts to anything dodgy depends on what else happens after.

5 hours ago, JNR said:

Assumes facts not in evidence.  The fan concept that Lyanna was the KotLT does not make it so, because as I pointed out before, mobthink does not create reality. 

Riiight. When I disagree with what is perceived as the outside 'groupthink' here, i'm my own unique little heretic, When I believe the evidence makes an extraordinarily strong case (few cases on any theory being stronger in fact), I'm guilty of "mobthink" and not allowed to argue points based on it because "facts not in evidence". Whereas everyone else here gets to pull together half-arsed and extremely dubious connections and build entire theoretical structures on them, without being called out.

5 hours ago, JNR said:

And actually the case for Lyanna, despite its popularity, is rather weak.  The case for other candidates also being weak -- which it invariably is -- does not make the case for Lyanna any stronger.

I happen to think its one of the very strongest cases in the entire body of ASoIaF. I actually find its a useful litmus test. People who refuse it (as opposed to accepting it as a strong case but keeping other options that perhaps they prefer open) are demonstrating, IMO, that they are cognitively impaired, usually by extreme bias - they are simply not capable, or refuse to, look at it objectively.

5 hours ago, JNR said:

I bet you can't demonstrate he was smiling in the first place.  It's just another thing you're assuming, like the identity of the mystery knight, and it makes little sense.

I don't have to demonstrate it, and I explicitly didn't assume it. I literally phrased it as a bet. But you are exposing your own biased animus in the way you approach the argument.

IMO it makes enormous sense. Rhaegar is smart, he knows whats what, but he also knows honour, justice and courage when he sees it. He knows what it will look like but also that those issues can be defused, and in one fell swoop he gets to do right, defy his father-being-an-ass and cock a thumb at all the high and mighty asses that constitute the court and the Game of Thrones.
Hah, the more I think about it the more it appeals. Even if his smile was behind his visor, or small and private.
But maybe he wasn't either, I don't know.

5 hours ago, JNR said:

Rhaegar, like Lyanna, was also no fool, and he knew quite well what he was doing and how it would be seen.

He understood how it would affect his marriage (badly), his daughter's concept of him (badly), his parents' concept of him (badly), the relationship between the crown and Dorne (disaster), and that it would be seen by some including his paranoid father to support conspiracy theories of a secret alliance between him, the Starks, and other major players. 

And all of things go away if he resumes his position at Elia's side, carries on his husbandly, fatherly and princely duties as though nothing happened, and doesn't pay any special attention to Lyanna further.
Which as far as we know is exactly what happened for months and months until things changed radically for him when Aegon was born and Elia could suddenly no longer provide the third head.

 

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15 hours ago, Melifeather said:

The fact of the matter is, the event occurs immediately prior to the fever dream. This is not confirmation bias. It's very relevant to the some of the details in his dream.

The 'matches' have to match well enough to be real 'matches'. If they aren't 'real' matches, then claiming them as matches is confirmation bias. We all get to draw our own lines on 'matching close enough'.

My position is that your matches don't pass the 'close enough to really be a match' test, which means that from my perspective they are definitively confirmation bias. You get to draw your line differently. So does everyone else. I've indicated in some cases what I think would be more reasonable requirements for 'real' matches. I'm not going to persuade you, I know, but by challenging what I think is unreasonable, I expect others will think  bit harder before running with your description, or not. They get to decide where their line is too. But if no one challenges people tend to forget that there is a line at all and just go long with interesting ideas without really examining them. Or at least I think they do. Perhaps I should have more faith. :blush:

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I believe its more nuanced than that. Barra's mother said:

You've done it again. Cut the quote specifically to avoid the true context.

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"I named her Barra," she said as the child nursed. "She looks so like him, does she not, milord? She has his nose, and his hair …"
"She does." Eddard Stark had touched the baby's fine, dark hair. It flowed through his fingers like black silk. Robert's firstborn had had the same fine hair, he seemed to recall.
 
"Tell him that when you see him, milord, as it … as it please you. Tell him how beautiful she is."
 
"I will," Ned had promised her. That was his curse. Robert would swear undying love and forget them before evenfall, but Ned Stark kept his vows. He thought of the promises he'd made Lyanna as she lay dying, and the price he'd paid to keep them.
 
[where you started]"And tell him I've not been with no one else. I swear it, milord, by the old gods and new. Chataya said I could have half a year, ...

Its clear and specific. Barra is making a request, a plea. Ned recognises it for what it is, knows he's going to make her a promise to protect Barra, and that brings to mind explicitly the promises he made to Lyanna as she lay dying.

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Context is everything, my dear Corbon. You obviously believe Jon's parents are Rhaegar and Lyanna, so of course you apply the young girls's words to Lyanna,

Not because I think R+L=J. but because Ned explicitly told us thats what it made him think of. Despite you cutting this part of the quote every time!

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but she wasn't the only young girl in Ned's life that gave up child. I believe that Ned was thinking about Ashara and how he had treated her. IMO Ned fathered Jon on Ashara and may even had planned to marry her after the war, but when Robert got cornered in Stoney Sept he had to make a deal with Hoster Tully in order to get soldiers, so he married Catelyn.

Ned shows your ideas, in this particular case, to be empty wind.
Context really is everything. The full, uncut, explicit context.
 

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I'm going to go over a proposed scenario. Hopefully you can read it with an open mind. It is, after all, just a theory....but, perhaps you'll have a better understanding of my position when I say interpretation is "context".

I'll treat it fairly as best I can. 
You understand that its heavily undermined by what happened above of course. But lets ignore that for this purpose.

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Try to imagine the following text with different players. Gilly is Ashara (and in some instances Rhaella), Craster is King Aerys, Sam is Ned, Dalla is Elia, Mance is Rhaegar, Dalla's boy is Aegon, and Jon is, well, he needs to be someone in a position of authority. Jon is a Lord Commander and was named after Jon Arryn, so I believe he's Jon Arryn. I'm still working on identifying the Lord o'Bones, but I'm leaning towards Tywin Lannister.

I'm having a hard time. These are different people with different personalities and circumstances. But onwards for now... 

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I have a theory that King Aerys II was burning babes - dragonseed - in his attempts to hatch dragon eggs. So when Gilly/Ashara begs Jon/Jon Arryn to not allow the babe to burn, she's talking about Aegon, and indirectly about Jon Snow (Monster).

Jon/Jon Arryn is telling Gily/Ashara that she is to go into exile, but that she can only take one boy - Dalla's boy/Elia's boy, Aegon. 

Gilly/Ashara and Sam/Ned saved Monster/Jon Snow from the cold. In other words, from dying. I think Ashara was pregnant at court and was trying to hide it or she wanted to escape with the child so Aerys wouldn't kill him. Aerys would not want a Stark bastard to live. Hiding the child is one interpretation of "exposure". She didn't want her child exposed to danger. Craster left his sons to die of exposure, but Ashara fled court before Jon could be killed.  

The same could be said about Rhaella. She could have fled with Aegon, or simply her pregnant self, because she didn't want her child or her grandson to be exposed and burned as dragonseed.

Jon/Jon Arryn is listing all the risks of Gilly/Ashara/Rhaella keeping Monster/Jon Snow/Aegon, and all the benefits to being raised at Castle Black/Winterfell/Braavos.

<snip>

I think Rhaella took the real Aegon with her into exile, and that Ashara went home in disguise as Wylla.

I think I kinda followed that so far.
All it is is taking one set of circumstances, deciding its a parallel, then matching it up. Thats cool. Problem is, if its real, then there needs to be a supporting real evidence. Stuff that actually happened that fits. Lots of it, solid bits. And the various aspects actually have to hang. But there isn't, and they don't. 
I think N+A is poor reading comprehension, but I can accept it. But why the heck would Aerys give a shit about a Stark Bastard? Why does Ned never ever think about Ashara? Rhaella didn't flee, didn't take Aegon. She left publicly, not against Aerys wishes. So what good is a theory that suggests otherwise as part of its narrative?

Frankly, all I see is no evidence and a lot of fancifulness built on nothing. Invented parallels that don't match what we are told don't work. 

Quote

There was no pleading. It was more of a request. The use of "as it please you" is about as respectful as it gets. She's a commoner and Ned a noble. Commoners don't try to force nobles to do anything lest the noble punish them.

Here's the actual quote:

No, here's the actual quote, all of it.

Quote

"Tell him that when you see him, milord, as it … as it please you. Tell him how beautiful she is."

"I will," Ned had promised her. That was his curse. Robert would swear undying love and forget them before evenfall, but Ned Stark kept his vows. He thought of the promises he'd made Lyanna as she lay dying, and the price he'd paid to keep them.

"And tell him I've not been with no one else. I swear it, milord, by the old gods and new. Chataya said I could have half a year, for the baby, and for hoping he'd come back. So you'll tell him I'm waiting, won't you? I don't want no jewels or nothing, just him. He was always good to me, truly."

Good to you, Ned thought hollowly. "I will tell him, child, and I promise you, Barra shall not go wanting."

She had smiled then, a smile so tremulous and sweet that it cut the heart out of him. Riding through the rainy night, Ned saw Jon Snow's face in front of him, so like a younger version of his own. If the gods frowned so on bastards, he thought dully, why did they fill men with such lusts? "Lord Baelish, what do you know of Robert's bastards?"

She clearly pleads. Politely of course, she needs him to receive her request favourably. I' not quite sure why you think be deferential stops a plea from being a plea?
"Tell him... please.. tell him...tell him... you'll tell him won't you?... "
"I will, I promise Barra will not go wanting"
And then she's relieved. A tremulous smile.
I don;t see how you have the sheer gall to claim this is not a plea.
 

Quote

Your "Tell him...tell him...won't you?" is very misleading. You are doing the very thing you accuse me of doing.

 

Misleading? no. I fact, I underdid it by about half.
Nothing of true context was left out. You claimed that she did not plead. She clearly did, asking for something repeatedlly and showing relief when she got it.

 

Edited by corbon

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9 minutes ago, corbon said:

The 'matches' have to match well enough to be real 'matches'. If they aren't 'real' matches, then claiming them as matches is confirmation bias. We all get to draw our own lines on 'matching close enough'.

My position is that your matches don't pass the 'close enough to really be a match' test, which means that from my perspective they are definitively confirmation bias. You get to draw your line differently. So does everyone else. I've indicated in some cases what I think would be more reasonable requirements for 'real' matches. I'm not going to persuade you, I know, but by challenging what I think is unreasonable, I expect others will think  bit harder before running with your description, or not. They get to decide where their line is too. But if no one challenges people tend to forget that there is a line at all and just go long with interesting ideas without really examining them. Or at least I think they do. Perhaps I should have more faith. :blush:

You've done it again. Cut the quote specifically to avoid the true context.

Its clear and specific. Barra is making a request, a plea. Ned recognises it for what it is, knows he's going to make her a promise to protect Barra, and that brings to mind explicitly the promises he made to Lyanna as she lay dying.

Not because I think R+L=J. but because Ned explicitly told us thats what it made him think of. Despite you cutting this part of the quote every time!

Ned shows your ideas, in this particular case, to be empty wind.
Context really is everything. The full, uncut, explicit context.
 

I'll treat it fairly as best I can. 
You understand that its heavily undermined by what happened above of course. But lets ignore that for this purpose.

I'm having a hard time. These are different people with different personalities and circumstances. But onwards for now... 

I think I kinda followed that so far.
All it is is taking one set of circumstances, deciding its a parallel, then matching it up. Thats cool. Problem is, if its real, then there needs to be a supporting real evidence. Stuff that actually happened that fits. Lots of it, solid bits. And the various aspects actually have to hang. But there isn't, and they don't. 
I think N+A is poor reading comprehension, but I can accept it. But why the heck would Aerys give a shit about a Stark Bastard? Why does Ned never ever think about Ashara? Rhaella didn't flee, didn't take Aegon. She left publicly, not against Aerys wishes. So what good is a theory that suggests otherwise as part of its narrative?

Frankly, all I see is no evidence and a lot of fancifulness built on nothing. Invented parallels that don't match what we are told don't work. 

No, here's the actual quote, all of it.

She clearly pleads. Politely of course, she needs him to receive her request favourably. I' not quite sure why you think be deferential stops a plea from being a plea?
"Tell him... please.. tell him...tell him... you'll tell him won't you?... "
"I will, I promise Barra will not go wanting"
And then she's relieved. A tremulous smile.
I don;t see how you have the sheer gall to claim this is not a plea.
 

Misleading? no. I fact, I underdid it by about half.
Nothing of true context was left out. You claimed that she did not plead. She clearly did, asking for something repeatedlly and showing relief when she got it.

 

When talking to Barra, Ned doesn't think RLJ, not as far as we know. He thinks of his promise to Lyanna. Whatever it was. 

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4 minutes ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

When talking to Barra, Ned doesn't think RLJ, not as far as we know. He thinks of his promise to Lyanna. Whatever it was. 

If he ever did explicitly we could have saved a whole pile of space on the internet.

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7 hours ago, corbon said:
 
"Tell him that when you see him, milord, as it … as it please you. Tell him how beautiful she is."
 
"I will," Ned had promised her. That was his curse. Robert would swear undying love and forget them before evenfall, but Ned Stark kept his vows. He thought of the promises he'd made Lyanna as she lay dying, and the price he'd paid to keep them.

You’re jumping over Robert. Robert’s lack of honor with regards to fathering bastards without a second thought. That’s who Ned is comparing himself to.

As for Lyanna - I think the poor girl was gang raped, sliced in the belly by a sword, and left to die, and by the time Ned found her she was begging for mercy, and “mercy” was what Lyanna made Ned promise. 

Edited by Melifeather

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10 hours ago, corbon said:

I happen to think its one of the very strongest cases in the entire body of ASoIaF. I actually find its a useful litmus test.

Well, you can think what pleases you best.  But she will still remain a weak candidate, because she would have been an eighth-grader who had zero training or experience jousting in tournaments.

She can't be shown in canon as picking up a lance in her life -- you have to wander over to the kooky app for that idea (and the app is, we know, full of BS).  She is certainly never said to have been trained by anyone, even for one day. 

And if she was the mystery knight, she was wearing bits and pieces of armor that were never made for her.  Can we show that she ever rode a horse, once, while wearing any sort of armor -- even outside a joust, alone? No, we can't.

Frankly, I don't think an eighth-grade Barristan Selmy or Arthur Dayne or the Mountain would stand a chance in hell under those conditions. 

I'd expect them all to get brutalized, just as Barristan did when he rode as a mystery knight against Duncan Targaryen.  Lyanna would have stood no chance either.

Even Lyanna's height is a doubtful matter. Can we show she was short enough to have been the knight? No, we can't -- we have to imagine she was short, which fans constantly do for no apparent reason.  (What if she looked like Sophie Turner?)

How about that peculiar booming voice? Do we know Lyanna had such a voice?  No... I don't think we do.

Now, I could attack any other candidate just as easily.  There are really no good candidates, not based on available info.  But as I said, that doesn't strengthen the case for Lyanna, who remains one more implausible possibility among many.

 

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This wording from the "BS" app:

Quote

The only daughter of Lord Rickard Stark and Lady Lyarra of House Stark, Lyanna proved to be a strong-willed girl who grew into a slender beauty. She was a skilled horsewoman, and practiced at tilting at rings.  All true?

Was specifically approved by George while the app was in development. It was one of some hundred-odd specific questions and queries we had for George for which he provided his yea, nay, or clarification.

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23 minutes ago, Ran said:

This wording from the "BS" app:

Was specifically approved by George while the app was in development. It was one of some hundred-odd specific questions and queries we had for George for which he provided his yea, nay, or clarification.

Tilting at rings is different than jousting. Did it traditionally require armor? I imagine the lance wouldn’t need to be as sturdy and was probably lighter and more slender too?

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1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

Tilting at rings is different than jousting. Did it traditionally require armor? I imagine the lance wouldn’t need to be as sturdy and was probably lighter and more slender too?

Historically-speaking, when the British Army experimented with introducing lances for some of its light cavalry regiments after Waterloo, an unexpected bonus turned out to be the rediscovery that training a man in carrying a lance had the uncovenanted effect of markedly improving his general riding skills - so much so that lances were adopted by all cavalry regiments as a training aid, whatever their intended role in battle.

The point of this being that its testified on all sides, and not just  the App that Lyanna was a superb rider. In "mediaeval" times, the lance was absolutely integral to horsemanship.

Armour, not so integral, but sticking a tin bucket over ones head does produce a booming effect :D

Edited by Black Crow

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2 hours ago, Ran said:

Was specifically approved by George while the app was in development. It was one of some hundred-odd specific questions and queries we had for George for which he provided his yea, nay, or clarification.

How intriguing.  You seem to imply that because he "said yea or nay," that means the information is somehow factual and beyond dispute.

In that case, here are some more facts drawn from the app that are beyond dispute:

• Jon is the son of Ned Stark. Thus, he cannot possibly be the son of Rhaegar Targaryen.

• Aegon Targaryen, son of Rhaegar Targaryen, died at King's Landing... and he also appears in A Dance with Dragons as a character.  This is a flat contradiction, as you should be well aware, and it means the app is certainly full of BS on at least one of those points, and possibly both.

• Melisandre is from Asshai originally. She cannot possibly be from anywhere else.

Now, really Ran.  You yourself have told us you don't believe the first one or the last one. 

You've argued against Mel's origin being Asshai based on the same logic I would use -- that we know from Melisandre's own thoughts that she really can't be from Asshai.

But there it is, in the app all the same.  Just like all the other BS.  Why? 

Well, maybe it's because the app is not full of facts. It's full of ideas believed by people in Westeros, which are frequently BS.  And that's exactly why the app flatly states Jon Snow is the son of Ned Stark, just like every one of the book appendices do.

So... is it possible that people believe Lyanna tilted at rings?  Sure -- why not? But that wouldn't make it a fact, any more than Jon's father being Ned is a fact.

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1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

The point of this being that its testified on all sides, and not just  the App that Lyanna was a superb rider. In "mediaeval" times, the lance was absolutely integral to horsemanship.

Armour, not so integral, but sticking a tin bucket over ones head does produce a booming effec:D

If the knight were either Lyanna or Howland or combination of both, I think magic was needed. It’s pretty difficult to believe a young girl had better skills than experienced knights without magical help.

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7 minutes ago, JNR said:

But that wouldn't make it a fact, any more than Jon's father being Ned is a fact.

I actually believe that one.

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10 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

When talking to Barra, Ned doesn't think RLJ, not as far as we know. He thinks of his promise to Lyanna. Whatever it was. 

Exactly.

9 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

True but I said it for a reason. Corbon stated it as if Ned literally thought of RLJ.

No, check back. 
My position is that Ned was thinking of the promises he made Lyanna as a direct result of the promises he made to Barra's mum. 
Melifeather says thats nonsense, and I'm biased because I think R+L=J. She says Ned was thinking about his marriage vows. I pointed out that I think that Ned was thinking of his promises to the dying Lyanna not because R+L=J, but because Ned explicitly told us that it was the promises he made to the dying Lyanna that his mind turned to in that situation.

I do agree that the way Ned's promises to Barra's mum make him think of the promises he made to Lyanna as she lay dying is one of the many supporting pieces of evidence for R+L=J. I also think thats why certain people have to literally deny the explicit text, even to the point of cutting it out of every quote they make discussing that exact subject, is because they are utterly committed to "NOT R+L=J under any circumstances" and therefore refuse to accept evidence that supports it. 

3 hours ago, Melifeather said:

You’re jumping over Robert. Robert’s lack of honor with regards to fathering bastards without a second thought. That’s who Ned is comparing himself to.

RTFT.
Its not who Ned is comparing himself to. Its where the plea and his promise takes him. To the promises he made Lyanna as she lay dying.

 

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32 minutes ago, JNR said:

So... is it possible that people believe Lyanna tilted at rings?  Sure -- why not? But that wouldn't make it a fact, any more than Jon's father being Ned is a fact.

You claimed there's no evidence at all that Lyanna so much as touched a lance. Whether you want to read it in the way you want to read it or not, George's statement is evidence that this is at the very least believed to be the case in Westeros, and these beliefs tend not to come into being without reason. Melisandre says she's from Asshai. Jon is said to be Ned's son. Aegon is said to have been killed and a body was presented, and Aegon is said to be alive and an alleged prince has attacked Westeros. None of these things are outlandish claims in the books, as such -- there is reason for why people believe these things, because the facts they see seem to support it.

Same with Lyanna and her ability to use a lance -- people believe it with some kind of reason. The likeliest reason? She used a lance, tilting at rings, and people talked about it. 

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4 minutes ago, corbon said:

Exactly.

No, check back. 
My position is that Ned was thinking of the promises he made Lyanna as a direct result of the promises he made to Barra's mum. 
Melifeather says thats nonsense, and I'm biased because I think R+L=J. She says Ned was thinking about his marriage vows. I pointed out that I think that Ned was thinking of his promises to the dying Lyanna not because R+L=J, but because Ned explicitly told us that it was the promises he made to the dying Lyanna that his mind turned to in that situation.

I do agree that the way Ned's promises to Barra's mum make him think of the promises he made to Lyanna as she lay dying is one of the many supporting pieces of evidence for R+L=J. I also think thats why certain people have to literally deny the explicit text, even to the point of cutting it out of every quote they make discussing that exact subject, is because they are utterly committed to "NOT R+L=J under any circumstances" and therefore refuse to accept evidence that supports it. 

RTFT.
Its not who Ned is comparing himself to. Its where the plea and his promise takes him. To the promises he made Lyanna as she lay dying.

 

Ned's vows encompass both his vows to Catelyn, but also his vows to Hoster and their alliance. Marriage was much more than finding a partner to have children with. It binded Tully and Stark together sort of like sealing a contract. Ned needed Hoster's men to help save Robert. He made a vow and kept his promises. If it turns out that Ned is Jon's father, then accepting responsibility for his bastard son really emphasizes the comparison Ned is making between himself and Robert. In Ned's train of thought, Robert was right there in there. The main topic was about men caring for their bastards. Robert didn't accept responsibility, but Ned did. I'm not saying that Ned doesn't also say that he made promises to Lyanna, because it's evident that he did. What I am saying is this is a tricky bit of writing designed to lead you towards a conclusion the author wants you to make, but I just don't believe it's true. 

I don't know what RTFT means.

 

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