Heresy 228 and one over the eight

[St Daga]

16 hours ago, corbon said:

And yet, in both the other tourneys, people did beat him. Only the very best, most skilled people, but that kinda proves that he didn't just have a free pass because he was crown prince.
A lot of people make this claim - "Rhaegar probably only won because people let him". But the facts we have don't back that up. First, he didn't usually win tournaments. This is the only actual one we know of he won. Someone beat him every other time, even though he beat nearly everybody - including the people who beat him other times. The people most likely to give him a pass (KG) were the people who actually beat him. Second, you've got people who didn't like him and didn't support him being beaten by him. People like Brandon. If there was no other data, I could accept Brandon rolling over, as part of a wider plan. Heck, that could explain his fury, if he rolled over and then Rhaegar changed the plan, 'betraying' him and worse, using his own 'sacrifice' to do so. I'd think it was weak, given Brandon's characterisation, but acceptable. But there is other data that belies the 'roll over' theories.

You have given examples of two men beating Rhaegar in Tourney's, Barristan Selmy and Arthur Dayne. Did they win because they are better lances, just better that day, or luck, I really have no idea. And while this shows that two men are not afraid to unhorse their crown prince, that does not mean that every person riding the joust would risk harming Rhaegar. Now if we consider that perhaps Rhaegar really wanted to win the Tournament of Harrenhal, and he knows that he has previously been beaten by two men who are competing, perhaps he felt like he needed to resort to some sort of trickery to make sure he beat men who had previously beaten him. I don't expect you to agree with my idea, but I certainly think it's possible. Of course, you are not expected to see it the same way I do.

16 hours ago, corbon said:

Third, you've got Rhaegar's consistent characterisation as good at whatever he tried, and warrior skills in particular. Not only do you have his tourney record, you have 

And while you have some evidence for Rhaegar being a strong warrior, which I don't dispute, because of his showdown with Robert at the Trident. It sounds to me like it was pretty evenly matched and Robert managed to land one blow more than Rhaegar. But being a swordsman and being a jouster are two different skill sets. Jon Snow even tells Benjen early in the story that Robb is better with a lance and Jon is better with a sword. We know those two young men trained side by side for years, with probably the same level of instruction, but one is more proficient in one skill than the other. So, Rhaegar could be great with a sword but less proficient with a lance.

16 hours ago, corbon said:

Neither. But its so outlandish to argue that the wild wolf, mr likes a bloody sword, the 'centaur' Brandon Stark either rolled belly up and let Rhaegar win, or wasn't very good, that it feels like people forget just who Rhaegar beat.

Again I never said that Brandon threw the tourney, nor did I say that Brandon was a good jouster. I think you think he was a good jouster based on his reputation as a great horse rider, but I don't think that is enough. Arya Stark is noted to be a damn fine horse rider, but that does not make her a great jouster. Perhaps in time, if she showed interest in training to joust, but not currently. The two things are not explicitly tied together. However, We don't really even know if Brandon Stark was a good swordsman. Not his "bloody sword" but an actual one. We know he beat an untrained Baelish, but that is all in canon. I believe in an SSM GRRM reports that Brandon was better with a sword than Ned. That is where the comparison ends. That same SSM tells us that Brandon was also the best jouster of the Stark's, but there is no indication of how he rated against others.

16 hours ago, corbon said:

Of course they aren't everything. Around 75% according to Jaime. But perhaps its rude to remind you. I don't think so, since you brought up 100% ("everything").

I am not sure what your point is here. I agree that riding well is not the only important thing when becoming a great jouster. It seems to be you that thinks it's the most important part of it, and therefore being a great rider makes you a great jouster. That's assumption, I think,

 

I am going to break my response into two posts, since my computer is being an arsehole! It's trying to die!

 

 

[alienarea]

Just adding a few thoughts:

Brandon and Lyanna are both known for "wolf blood" and described as centaurs (half-horse). Maybe some horse-warging, unknown to them, was involved?

I don't see Lyanna practicing jousting or handling a lance as this would not have been practiced in Winterfell and Brandon and Ned learned it when being fostered.

Brandon losing to Rhaegar may have fueled him storming to King's Landing callling out Rhaegar. Not only demanding Lyanna but revenge for his wounded ego?

 

[Melifeather]

23 minutes ago, St Daga said:

For several years I have been working on compiling the evidence for the Manderly's to be betraying the Stark's, which I have discussed on the LH and over here a few times. I have never seen Pretty Pig's thoughts on this. Do you have a link? I would love to read those thoughts. Most of the time I receive scoffing and flat refusal when raising this idea. 

I actually think the Manderly's are currently part of orchestrating the downfall of the Stark's and well before the Red Wedding. I also think they were part of the plotting of the Red Wedding and that Wyman was willing to sacrifice his son Wendel in the process. So, if there is some wavy parallel going on in Braavos with the Reyaan family, I am excited to see where it goes.

With regards to Pretty Pig's comment, I'm going off of memory and I don't recall if she's written up an entire theory. I think she raised it more in passing. I was waiting for you to comment on what we've already discussed before going back to dig into the text again. I spent way more time than I should have deciphering nerdy GOT stuff yesterday that I hardly got any work done!

It's hard to believe Wyman would be willing to sacrifice Wendel. Maybe he just didn't think it'd happen? 

I did some earlier work in the Cat of the Canals chapter about the Manderlys, but it's incomplete. It's part of the "ship" allegories. This is what I've found so far for The Small Brazen Monkey and the huge Ibbenese Whaler:

The small Brazen Monkey and the huge Ibbenese whaler are together in Braavos and docked at the Ragman’s Harbor. The Ibbenese whaler was said to "reek of tar, blood, and whale oil".  A crew member on this ship cursed Cat so loudly that he scared away her cats. The description of being “huge” along with “whale” hints at a connection to Wayman Manderly. In the chapter, cats were following Cat. The "cats” that were looking for her were scared off her trail by Manderly men. Wayman “reeks”, because currently he’s in an alliance with Roose and Ramsay Bolton, who is a crew member of the Brazen Monkey. The “blood” and “tar” are in reference to the children Ramsay murdered and tarred to take the places of Bran and Rickon. 

The location of Ibben as being an island in the Shivering Sea is a very apt metaphor for the Manderlys. The north is often described as a sea, and the transplanted Manderlys are an island of Andals amongst the northmen. At the end of Dance, Winterfell was experiencing an extreme blizzard. The “sea” has swept down from beyond the Wall and is freezing these mermen.

The small Brazen Monkey "hails" from Gulltown. It's crew is led by Wat (Roose?), who approached Cat, asking where he can find a good brothel. Another asked how a girl from King's Landing came to be selling mussels on the docks of Braavos, so she had to tell her tale. "We're here four days, and four long nights," another told her. "Where's a man to go to find a bit of sport?” While I cannot say for sure, it sounds like Lyanna or Ashara encountered Roose and Domeric Bolton and his men. Sounds like they may have even chased her for awhile - a situation symbolic of the story of the Norse Wild Hunt. They chased her for four days and nights. Roose had this to say about Domeric and Lyanna:

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…Domeric. A quiet boy, but most accomplished. He served four years as Lady Dustin’s page, and three in the Vale as a squire to Lord Redfort. He played the high harp, read histories, and rode like the wind. Horses … the boy was mad for horses, Lady Dustin will tell you. Not even Lord Rickard’s daughter could outrace him, and that one was half a horse herself. Redfort said he showed great promise in the lists. A great jouster must be a great horseman first.”

It sounds like Domeric captured Lyanna. Were the Boltons secretly working with the Lannisters just like they did prior to the Red Wedding?

"Brazen" means to be bold and without shame. It can also mean to be made of brass, which is probably how it is connected to monkeys - as in the colloquial expression, “cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey.” The brass monkeys themselves are the famous three wise monkeys of see no evil, hear no evil, and speak no evil. The three monkeys might be the Boltons, Freys, and Manderlys - the three Houses holed up at Winterfell.

Right now Roose and Ramsay are sitting at Winterfell freezing their balls off. The Boltons seat is the Dreadfort, but they've taken other castles through trickery: Hornwood, Moat Cailin, and Winterfell. They are con men whose ship “hails” from Gulltown. Is it "gull" or "gall"? 

Definition of gall: Something bitter to endure. Brazen boldness coupled with impudent assurance and insolence. Irritate or sarcasm. 

The Boltons are bannermen of the Starks, yet there is no love lost there. They are like the Freys are to the Tullys. The Starks gall the Boltons. They are jealous of the Stark ability to skinchange direwolves (and perhaps horses), and they resented having them as their liege lord. I believe Gulltown, or "Galltown" is an allegory for the Dreadfort, and meant to mirror how the Boltons hold one area (Winterfell), but “hail” from somewhere else. 

The Boltons are very brazen. Other than freezing their balls, they're supposed to be allies of the Manderlys and Freys, yet they wouldn't hesitate to kill an ally, or cause injury to their former liege lord of House Stark. Some of the Bolton’s deceit has rubbed off on the Ibbenese whaler, Wayman Manderly, who has killed two Frey envoys, and hidden their bodies as the meat filling in the wedding pies.

[corbon]

7 hours ago, Melifeather said:

@corbon @SFDanny

Barristan said this to Daenerys regarding Rhaegar's skill:

The definition of puissant: Very strong, able, powerful, and effective

It's an interesting word, "puissant", and surprisingly GRRM has used it six times.

Puissant is a very medieval word. Its quite commonly used in period, Its not surprising GRRM has used it so often (in fact I'm surprised he's used it so little). Its one of those little touches which contributes to the 'feel' of the whole series.

7 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Here's the thing, everyone involved in this discussion is providing text that supports their opinion, but Corbin seems to think that every point must have a declared winner while most are willing to move on.

Some text is significantly stronger, more relevant, or more explicit than others.
I don't aim to 'win', I am to learn and develop. I do struggle to accept irrational arguments which refuse to take into account data that doesn't suit because I can't learn anything from them.
Sometimes I try to ignore them, succeed, and then fail later. 

7 hours ago, Melifeather said:

This unwillingness to agree to disagree is argumentative, which is unpleasant for the people that you are engaging with. Take Barristan's advice: "words win no battles."

 

Hey, we've agreed to disagree many times. As I have with others. Thats not the problem.

 

[St Daga]

17 hours ago, corbon said:

 

17 hours ago, corbon said:

So Loras had more riding skill during the bout, to apply to his joust, than Gregor - because of his trick.

No, he didn't show greater riding skills, in spite of his trickery. IF Loras's mare was behaving in an unruly manner just like Gregor's AND he still managed to win, then he had greater skills, but in my opinion that is not what happened. In my opinion, Loras DID show greater trickery skills than the Mountain did. But lets just agree to disagree on this point. 

*sorry about the double quote. 

17 hours ago, corbon said:

Other people are saying its impossible, or too improbably, that Lyanna Stark could possibly be a successful jouster.
Your own argument was that she probably needed some tricks.

Are you claiming that Lady Lance needs tricks?

Are you claiming that its not possible for Lyanna Stark to have talent, and even practice, possibly a significant amount of practice - as much or more than Lady Lance?

I did not say that Lyanna did not have skills at jousting, but there is also no proof that she did. GRRM could have easily solved this by throwing in a textual word or two of Westerosi knowledge of Lyanna Stark's lance or joust skills when talking about Elia Sands skills, but he did not. I did say based on the knowledge that we have, since we have no information on Lyanna Stark ever picking up a lance, that IF she was the Knight of the Laughing Tree, then some trickery was involved.

I have no idea what Elia Sand's skill level is, and neither do you. She might win in competition, or she might not. What we do have is information that Elia Sand has practiced enough at rings that she has earned herself the name, Lady Lance. This nickname does not indicate that she has ever faced a person in real competition. 

I also claimed that with the correct training, then anyone, man or woman, had the potential to win at a joust, but that doesn't mean they will win, just that their odds are improved because their skills are proficient. 

19 hours ago, St Daga said:

And trust me, I am not saying a woman can't do this, I am saying it takes any person, man or women, many hours of practice to be proficient.

This was my statement.

17 hours ago, corbon said:

She's apparently proficient enough though to have a name for it, and be confident enough to challenge Joss Hood. We don;t know how proficient she really is.

Being bold does not make you a winner, although I like Elia Sand's boldness. 

17 hours ago, corbon said:

You stated Lyanna needed some tricks to win a joust. That implies she could't win without tricks. Thats clearly due to her age and sex.
But GRRM has Lady Lance being a known jouster confident enough of her skills to challenge men. GRRM clearly doesn't agree with you that Lyanna's age and sex preclude her from Jousting success.

GRRM has given us the potential for a 14 year old female to joust, based on her training, be he has not shown us her success in competition. And so far he has not directly tied this to Lyanna Stark. 

And perhaps, Lyanna did train and was proficient but still didn't want to risk a loss, so she resorted to trickery to help her win. Training for years at a skill doesn't mean a person might not still try to hedge their bets. We have a great example of this with Loras Tyrell at the Hand's Tourney.

17 hours ago, corbon said:

I'm sorry you got offended, that was not my intention and I honestly don't see anything I wrote to you as being offensive.

I am not offended, but I also don't appreciate having to argue against generalized statements as if they were my own. I can only be responsible for my own opinion and my own words, no one else's. 

[St Daga]

35 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

I was waiting for you to comment on what we've already discussed before going back to dig into the text again. I spent way more time than I should have deciphering nerdy GOT stuff yesterday that I hardly got any work done!

I am off to an appointment now, but I will touch back later on your thoughts. My computer is ready to die; my operating system is retiring and my old computer is working in fits and starts, but I will carry on! And perhaps take advantage of Black Friday and spend some money on myself! 

[LynnS]

15 hours ago, SFDanny said:

That doesn't mean I rule out some plan of Rhaegar's to win the tourney. Here, I must confess, I like the idea that others have voiced that the traditional taking of the defeated jouster's armor and horse to be negotiated later may have been part of just such a plan. I note that we know that not only did Rhaegar ride against many skilled jousters and warriors (we know Bronze Yohn Royce, Brandon Stark, Ser Arthur Dayne, and Ser Barristan Selmy did) but we should also note that if the ancient custom was followed, and if this was as we have been told a tourney staged with Rhaegar's money as way to build support to replace his father, then the return of armor would be a good place for Rhaegar to approach defeated lords in private. If so, then what did those lords say in response? 

Let me be clear, what I suggest is that Rhaegar had a political agenda going into the tourney and Aerys tried to stop it by his attendance. In response Rhaegar would have to try a covert method of sounding out others about his plans. Winning as many of the matches on the part of either Rhaegar or people in his inner circle (Ser Arthur Dayne and perhaps others) would provide an excuse for these private meetings. With the information we know now, I can't say this is much more than pure speculation, but to my mind it is more to the point than trying to prove that Rhaegar is a lousy jouster who won only by trickery without any evidence to supported it.

I think this is very feasible and there is some text to suggest that Rhaegar did have an agenda.  I've read other theories that support your contention and I think they are entirely plausible and far more interesting than the argument that Rhaegar won by trickery.

I also think that it's possible that Aerys ordered Rhaegar to give Lyanna the crown of roses in a further attempt to subvert Rhaegar's fledgling alliances, knowing how that act would damage Rhaegar.  Aerys seems to have had very little regard for Elia or Dorne.  I doubt that Rhaegar would go against Aery's orders in this regard.

[LynnS]

1 hour ago, alienarea said:

Just adding a few thoughts:

Brandon and Lyanna are both known for "wolf blood" and described as centaurs (half-horse). Maybe some horse-warging, unknown to them, was involved?

The term is interesting in the manner that Ned uses it.  To paraphrase, he says Brandon has a lot and Lyanna a little and it brought them both to and early death.  In this context, I think he is referring to anger and impulsive behavior.  The half-horse centaur description makes speculation about skinchanging a possibility or it could be that they were just skilled at riding. 

The wolf-blood is an allusion to direwolves and their ability to connect with Stark children developing the ability to warg/skinchange.  I don't think it's a coincidence that the direwolves  develop similar personalities to their master's, in our case the Stark kids.  They also serve as a connection to the weirwood and perhaps the old gods; if can take anything from the encounter between Tree-Bran and Ghost-Jon at the Skirling Pass.  The direwolves awaken warging abilities.  and enhance their I don't think Ned knows the true meaning of wolf-blooded.  But I have wondered if his generation had more of the wolf-blood than they knew.   Look at the children Lyanna and Ned produce.   

[corbon]

3 hours ago, St Daga said:

You have given examples of two men beating Rhaegar in Tourney's, Barristan Selmy and Arthur Dayne. Did they win because they are better lances, just better that day, or luck, I really have no idea.

Me either.

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And while this shows that two men are not afraid to unhorse their crown prince, that does not mean that every person riding the joust would risk harming Rhaegar.

Sure. But there is no data that points to that. Only potential allusions from other situations that clearly fail. Everyone who witnessed him joust respects his skills and rank him as one of the very best jousters around. And even the greatest jousters of his age, men who demonstrably were not afraid to beat him, both Barristan Selmy and Arthur Dayne, have 1-2 records against him. (Incidentally, self-correcting an error on my part. The 13-lance bout vs Arthur Dayne ended in a win for Rhaegar, not one of his losses).

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Now if we consider that perhaps Rhaegar really wanted to win the Tournament of Harrenhal, and he knows that he has previously been beaten by two men who are competing, perhaps he felt like he needed to resort to some sort of trickery to make sure he beat men who had previously beaten him. I don't expect you to agree with my idea, but I certainly think it's possible. Of course, you are not expected to see it the same way I do.

I don't dispute its possible. Its just a bad idea because it defies the data we have for no other reason than to support other theories.

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And while you have some evidence for Rhaegar being a strong warrior, which I don't dispute, because of his showdown with Robert at the Trident. It sounds to me like it was pretty evenly matched and Robert managed to land one blow more than Rhaegar. But being a swordsman and being a jouster are two different skill sets. Jon Snow even tells Benjen early in the story that Robb is better with a lance and Jon is better with a sword. We know those two young men trained side by side for years, with probably the same level of instruction, but one is more proficient in one skill than the other. So, Rhaegar could be great with a sword but less proficient with a lance.

No, his skills are more with the lance than the sword. Cersei's comment is about lancing not swordsmanship. And the Tourney results are jousting, not swordsmanship. I don't recall any evidence that he was a 'great' swordsman, but there is plenty that he was one of the greats as a jouster. Selmy was generally regarded as the greatest lance in the seven Kingdoms (and Dayne the greatest swordsman), but Rhaegar beat him 2-1.

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Again I never said that Brandon threw the tourney, nor did I say that Brandon was a good jouster. I think you think he was a good jouster based on his reputation as a great horse rider, but I don't think that is enough. Arya Stark is noted to be a damn fine horse rider, but that does not make her a great jouster.

Arya's 10. She might actually be a good jouster, especially within 3 years or so, she just hasn't tried yet.

GRRM's in-world characters explicitly tell us that horsemanship is the most important thing for jousting. 
16 year old Loras is a superb horseman, and uses that, and a horse-related trick to mess with Gregor, to beat the Mountain despite the enormous size and strength disparity.
Dunk is very large and very strong but not a great horseman, and knows that makes him a generally poor jouster. 
We have no known tournament records where the Mountain that Rides won the Tournament. Strength and mass help but are secondary to other factors.

I think Brandon was a very likely a quite good jouster based on the fact that he was a great horseman, heir to a high noble house, bold and aggressive in character, and is listed late in the list of people Rhaegar beat at Harrenhal, which is an indication (not proof) of high level capabilities, or at least, backing yourself as reasonably good. There are a high number of indicative and important factors supporting him being quite good, none against.

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Perhaps in time, if she showed interest in training to joust, but not currently. The two things are not explicitly tied together.

Sigh, yes they are thats the point.

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Jousting was three-quarters horsemanship, Jaime had always believed. Ser Loras rode superbly, and handled a lance as if he'd been born holding one . . . which no doubt accounted for his mother's pinched expression. He puts the point just where he means to put it, and seems to have the balance of a cat. Perhaps it was not such a fluke that he unhorsed me. It was a shame that he would never have the chance to try the boy again. He left the whole men to their sport.

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Horses … the boy was mad for horses, Lady Dustin will tell you. Not even Lord Rickard's daughter could outrace him, and that one was half a horse herself. Redfort said he showed great promise in the lists. A great jouster must be a great horseman first."

Notice that when Jaime thinks about Loras' abilities, its his aim and balance that Jaime thinks of as most important. Those are skills quite within the capabilities of a teenage girl who is horse-mad and talented.

 

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I am not sure what your point is here. I agree that riding well is not the only important thing when becoming a great jouster. It seems to be you that thinks it's the most important part of it, and therefore being a great rider makes you a great jouster. That's assumption, I think,

Its GRRM's fact - or at least the expert and widely held opinion, in GRRMs world. Not my assumption.

 

[corbon]

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

I don't think Ned knows the true meaning of wolf-blooded.  But I have wondered if his generation had more of the wolf-blood than they knew.   Look at the children Lyanna and Ned produce.   

Perhaps due to a Stark-Stark union? 

[Lady Dyanna]

2 hours ago, St Daga said:

Being bold does not make you a winner, although I like Elia Sand's boldness. 

Hmmm. That also might depend on perspective. If Elia is simply being honest about her own skills, does that make her bold? Or just confident? 

[corbon]

 

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GRRM has given us the potential for a 14 year old female to joust, based on her training, be he has not shown us her success in competition. And so far he has not directly tied this to Lyanna Stark. 

So,, its all cool for anyone to argue Rhaegar might be doing dodgy stuff to win because there are other examples, even those examples don't actually stand up to the light when compared to Rhaegar's specific situation...
A slender reed riding a grey mare (Loras) is a direct allusion to HR warging Lyanna (actually thats pretty good - though of course I'd say that its reversed, the grey mare is riding in place of the slender reed for the KotLT, to each their own)...
And any number of other vague and twisted similarities, allusions, metaphors etc (the above two were just easy ones to reference, not targeting any particular idea here)...
They are all cool and relevant and mean something. (And I'm not saying they don't, just pointing at the standard that seems to be held).

Yet when its as clean and simple as, yes, a 14 year old girl who loves horses and is an excellent rider can joust, be known for it, and act boldly regarding that skill area (she could hardly be so bold and confident if she was known for losing badly), but unless GRRM directly ties her to Lyanna, so what?

1 minute ago, Lady Dyanna said:

Hmmm. That also might depend on perspective. If Elia is simply being honest about her own skills, does that make her bold? Or just confident? 

She's 'known'. I find it difficult to believe she could be so confident, or bold, if she was known because she lost, badly, every time. She's clearly 'known' because she has some skills, whether she wins often or only occasionally.

[Lady Dyanna]

1 hour ago, corbon said:

She's 'known'. I find it difficult to believe she could be so confident, or bold, if she was known because she lost, badly, every time. She's clearly 'known' because she has some skills, whether she wins often or only occasionally.

Hmmmm. Idk. Tried to put a little bit of thought into this to come up with an appropriate response. Although I agree that ones confidence might be derived from the outside appreciation of others, I don’t believe this to be the case all of the time. Isn’t it also possible that Elia just has that level of confidence within herself? Without  being inside her head, how can we know for sure what she derives her confidence from? It can be anything from the idea that she’s just completely deluded, to the idea that she is just that confident of her own abilities and knowledge of the subject at hand. For example, I might be less vocal when challenged on the birthdate of some random acquaintance. But if you tell me that I have my Dad’s birthday wrong then I might argue that a little more strenuously. The same thing with an address I am long familiar with. 

[St Daga]

On 11/25/2019 at 2:14 PM, Melifeather said:

Recall that the play Seven Drunken Oarsmen was to be The Ship's "answer" to "The Lord of Woeful Countenance" (played at the Blue Lantern). The word "countenance" has to do with the appearance on someone's face. "Woeful is lamentably bad or serious. When Lyanna went missing, her brother Brandon showed up at the Red Keep and demanded Rhaegar come out and die. I would say that he was definitely, lamentably serious, plus the Starks tend to have long faces.

I think that "woeful countenance" could be interpreted as solemn, and this certainly seems to connect to several of the Stark's we meet in the story. This could very well tie to the Blue Lantern being a nod to Winterfell. I am not sure if Brandon was solemn faced much of the time, but it sounds like his expression would have been angry when he rode into the Red Keep, at least if Jaime's tale is accurate. No reason to really doubt him, except it's possible he turned his story up a notch in a bid to upset Catelyn when talking about her first betrothed.

 

On 11/25/2019 at 2:14 PM, Melifeather said:

Oarsmen are men that row or power the ships. The dictionary states, "one who rows, especially in a racing crew." The oarsmen would be the men involved in the "play", er rather the "tourney", which was at Harrenhal, but it turned into a real war. It could also be referring to the financing behind the tourney, or it could be all the parties involved. The main houses of the Rebellion had Tully, Stark, Arryn, and Baratheon as the rebels with Lannister added at the end - that's five. The other side was the crown - House Targaryen. All the other houses were loyalists so I'm thinking that Aerys and Rhaegar were the other two oarsmen. The play said the seven oarsmen were "drunken". If you are inebriated you are sometimes foolish, you tend not to think straight, and you might do things you wouldn't do sober. Drunken could mean saturated in alcohol, but it could also mean drunk with power.

I do like the idea of the "drunken oarsmen" being the stand in's for the players in the rebellion. However, I doubt that Rhaegar and Aerys count separately. Their fate was tied anyway, so when Rhaegar lost and died at the Trident, then the hopes of House Targaryen were gone as well. But seven could account for players from kingdoms. We have House Stark/North, House Arryn/Vale, House Tully/Riverlands, House Baratheon/Stormlands, House Lannister/Westerlands, House Targaryen/Crownlands. That leaves some regions unaccounted for. The Reach and Dorne. House Tyrell sided with the crown but changed allegiance after Storm's End was relieved. Dorne also sided with the crown, but might have been more or less forced to support the war effort, based on Aerys holding  Elia. I guess the Reach sat out the most of the war, feasting outside of Storm's End.

But that's eight, which actually makes more sense. Seven oarsman are a problem, drunk or not. That is an uneven number and the craft will not flow forward straight. 

 

On 11/25/2019 at 4:49 PM, Melifeather said:

The Gate was raised upon the flooded foundation of a burned down warehouse. The land continues to sink, so Izembaro got the real estate for cheap. The place was in ruins - just as Whitewalls is now a ruin. Now, if we could just work out who Izembaro is echoing...and we haven't even gotten to the rape play yet!

We don't know much about Izembaro. He is fat and used to act any part but now he only wants to portray kings. He must be playing Robert in "the Bloody Hand".  He loses his crown in the privy and he also misplaces his boar spear. "Please the pit" and "give them something that they haven't seen before" are things he says according to Mercy. These two statements remind me of things Baelish or Varys might say, but losing his crown in the shitter is perhaps a nod to Tywin dying on the pot and losing all his power. Tywin wasn't a king but wanted to have all the power of kingship. Perhaps Izembaro is Tywin, except for the fat part!

 

21 hours ago, Melifeather said:

It just dawned on me that we’ve overlooked something that should have been obvious with regards to “drunken”. One definition of drunken is to saturate with a liquid. The Battle at the Trident would certainly fulfill the criteria of being saturated. It was the highlight of the Rebellion when Robert stove in Rhaegar’s breastplate, sending rubies and blood into the waters of the river, and ending the Prince’s life. The one on one combat resulted in two oarsmen leaving the scene. Rhaegar was dead and Robert was injured, so they were unable to go with the others to Kings Landing where the rest of the play continued with five oarsmen.

edited to add: if the two drunken oarsmen who left “the play” were Rhaegar and Robert, then it was Rhaegar that found Robert abed with Ashara. When Meera’s story describes it as a “sad song”, it may just mean that Rhaegar was the one that told Lyanna what he’d seen. It’s a turn of phrase to describe a confession as “singing” as in “he sang like a canary”. This news would be upsetting to Lyanna enough to make her “sniffle”.

Perhaps it makes sense to think of Robert and Rhaegar out of the game after the Trident. Rhaegar definitely was, but Robert was still in the game, and I think he actually arrived in KL probably at the same time as Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully (did he ever get over his injury he received at the battle of the bells? and rejoin the fight?). Ned pushed forward with the vanguard and arrived in KL just after the Lannister forces. 

As to Rhaegar telling Lyanna what he might have seen, I think that she is sniffling on the first night of the Tourney, so Robert should not have already had time to mess around with Ashara. He could have later, as he got drunk and probably acted poorly, but I don't know if it fits the sad song. Anyway, from Ned's memory of Lyanna talking about Robert's bastard in the Vale, she was probably already aware of Robert's behaviors. After all, in Ned's memory, he and Lyanna discuss this at Winterfell on the night that Lyanna's betrothal was announced. This must have happened before Harrenhal.

 

5 hours ago, Melifeather said:

It's hard to believe Wyman would be willing to sacrifice Wendel. Maybe he just didn't think it'd happen? 

I base this thought on Wendel being noted with a leg of lamb three times in the Red Wedding chapter. It's an odd thing for GRRM to focus on, I think, Lamb's are often seen as sacrificial animals. Lambs are seen as innocent and pure, which is one reason they are used for sacrifice. Even biblically, Jesus, the son of God, was called "the lamb of God" whom was sacrificed for the worlds sins. Anyway, I do wonder if Wyman hoped that Wendel would survive the massacre and when he did not, then this has caused a rift between Wyman and House Frey. Hence the Frey Pies! I also wonder if this contributed to trouble between Roose and Wyman. Those men don't seem to be getting along, and I think it stem's from Wendel's death. Wyman might be regretting his alliance but I don't think he is done trying to take over power in the north.

 

5 hours ago, Melifeather said:

I did some earlier work in the Cat of the Canals chapter about the Manderlys, but it's incomplete. It's part of the "ship" allegories. This is what I've found so far for The Small Brazen Monkey and the huge Ibbenese Whaler:

The small Brazen Monkey and the huge Ibbenese whaler are together in Braavos and docked at the Ragman’s Harbor. The Ibbenese whaler was said to "reek of tar, blood, and whale oil".  A crew member on this ship cursed Cat so loudly that he scared away her cats. The description of being “huge” along with “whale” hints at a connection to Wayman Manderly. In the chapter, cats were following Cat. The "cats” that were looking for her were scared off her trail by Manderly men. Wayman “reeks”, because currently he’s in an alliance with Roose and Ramsay Bolton, who is a crew member of the Brazen Monkey. The “blood” and “tar” are in reference to the children Ramsay murdered and tarred to take the places of Bran and Rickon. 

The location of Ibben as being an island in the Shivering Sea is a very apt metaphor for the Manderlys. The north is often described as a sea, and the transplanted Manderlys are an island of Andals amongst the northmen. At the end of Dance, Winterfell was experiencing an extreme blizzard. The “sea” has swept down from beyond the Wall and is freezing these mermen.

The small Brazen Monkey "hails" from Gulltown. It's crew is led by Wat (Roose?), who approached Cat, asking where he can find a good brothel. Another asked how a girl from King's Landing came to be selling mussels on the docks of Braavos,

Actually, I have wondered if the Ibbenese Whaler isn't a hint at Illyrio/Varys connection, while the Brazen Monkey is a nod to Petyr Baelish. And the Gulltown connection seems to tie nicely to Baelish, who used to work out of Gulltown. I do see the idea of the reek of tar, etc to fit with Ramsay and Roose Bolton, though. I do think there could be a Baelish/Bolton connection. Domeric was warded in the Vale with the Redfort's and there seems to be a play on words with Redfort/Dreadfort. So, perhaps Roose and Littlefinger have been working for a while on the downfall of the Stark's. I think that Roose was responsible for sending the Catspaw to kill Bran. I do think that the Manderly's and Bolton's have been working together for a while, and that the supposed feud over Lady Hornwood's lands was contrived to make them appear to be at cross purposes. I think poor Lady Hornwood was a sacrifice to their goals.

 

[St Daga]

20 hours ago, SFDanny said:

That doesn't mean I rule out some plan of Rhaegar's to win the tourney. Here, I must confess, I like the idea that others have voiced that the traditional taking of the defeated jouster's armor and horse to be negotiated later may have been part of just such a plan. I note that we know that not only did Rhaegar ride against many skilled jousters and warriors (we know Bronze Yohn Royce, Brandon Stark, Ser Arthur Dayne, and Ser Barristan Selmy did) but we should also note that if the ancient custom was followed, and if this was as we have been told a tourney staged with Rhaegar's money as way to build support to replace his father, then the return of armor would be a good place for Rhaegar to approach defeated lords in private. If so, then what did those lords say in response? 

Let me be clear, what I suggest is that Rhaegar had a political agenda going into the tourney and Aerys tried to stop it by his attendance. In response Rhaegar would have to try a covert method of sounding out others about his plans. Winning as many of the matches on the part of either Rhaegar or people in his inner circle (Ser Arthur Dayne and perhaps others) would provide an excuse for these private meetings. With the information we know now, I can't say this is much more than pure speculation, but to my mind it is more to the point than trying to prove that Rhaegar is a lousy jouster who won only by trickery without any evidence to supported it.

This is an interesting idea. It does make sense that this could be a way for Rhaegar to seek out important houses in a bid to express his intentions, or at least gauge how people might feel about him replacing his father on the throne. We are given the impression that Rhaegar was pretty intelligent. Also, a return of a man's armor without having to pay a price might also make those people more apt to appreciate Rhaegar. I am sure Rhaegar would not have been interested in the actual ransom sums. 

This doesn't necessarily negate the idea that Rhaegar might have hedged his bets to make sure he won, but he might have simply been the best jouster at Harrenhal, even better than Barristan Selmy, who was regarded as the finest lance in all the Seven Kingdoms. It's interesting that Jaime was sent away before this, because Jaime was supposed to be quite proficient at the joust himself. I wonder if it's possible for Aerys to have been manipulated into sending Jamie back to KL because there was cause to think that Rhaegar would not be able to beat Jaime in the Tourney?

@corbon had given us this passage from the World Book which seems to hint at Rhaegar's intentions not to compete in the Tourney.

Quote

Prince Rhaegar emerged as the ultimate victor at the end of the competition. The crown prince, who did not normally compete in tourneys, surprised all by donning his armor and defeating every foe he faced, including four knights of the Kingsguard. In the final tilt, he unhorsed Ser Barristan Selmy, generally regarded as the finest lance in all the Seven Kingdoms, to win the champion's laurels. TWOIAF-The Fall of the Dragons: The Year of the False Spring

On direct level, this seems to indicate that Rhaegar had no intention of entering the jousts and that was common knowledge. But then he surprised people and did compete. But if he had no intention of jousting, why did he bring his armor to Harrenhal? We have some precedent in the story for someone who is not planning to compete not having their armor with them. That was Baelor "Breakspear" Targaryen. He did not plan on jousting at Ashford Meadow and so he did not bring his own armor, which is why he ended up wearing his son Valarr's armor in the Trial of Seven. Yet Rhaegar, who wasn't going to joust, did have his own armor at Harrenhal? Is there any reason to suspect that Rhaegar did not have his own armor at Harrenhal? Which might mean he always planned to joust, brought his own armor, but did not spread word of his plans to enter the Tourney until the last moment. This might be part of his political plan, although I admit I am not sure how or why. Unless he thought if it was known he wasn't going to joust, it might get more people included in the joust.  Not really sure, just trying to feel out why Rhaegar would have his armor with him if he had no intention of entering the joust.

 

[SFDanny]

11 hours ago, LynnS said:

I think this is very feasible and there is some text to suggest that Rhaegar did have an agenda.  I've read other theories that support your contention and I think they are entirely plausible and far more interesting than the argument that Rhaegar won by trickery.

I also think that it's possible that Aerys ordered Rhaegar to give Lyanna the crown of roses in a further attempt to subvert Rhaegar's fledgling alliances, knowing how that act would damage Rhaegar.  Aerys seems to have had very little regard for Elia or Dorne.  I doubt that Rhaegar would go against Aery's orders in this regard.

I must admit I hadn't considered the possibility of a royal order by Aerys to his son to give Lyanna the crown of roses. My initial reaction is that I think it very unlikely. However, I've written many posts on why I think Rhaegar does so. Let me try to put down my thoughts on this succinctly. Forgive me, if I have a hard time being brief  about something I've thought a lot about.

I start from the position that it is a mistake to look at Rhaegar's actions as just a function of falling in love with Lyanna. I'm not going to go over the mountain of evidence that points to the fact he does so, but I think it is safe to say it begins at Harrenhal where he first sets eyes on her. I'm fully prepared to accept the fact this factors into his actions, but by focusing only on this we miss much of what is happening at Harrenhal. Martin is a very adept writer who gives us a multifaceted world to try to understand. I think this applies especially to the backstory of the tourney.

Part of that is the changing nature of the politics of Westeros. I've been in countless discussions over the last decade plus with people who couldn't conceive of any problems between Aerys and Rhaegar. I think that should be settled by now, but if you want to go over the evolution of the evidence we can. Let me just say I start with accepting the thesis that Harrenhal is a tourney staged by Rhaegar to build alliances to replace his father on the Iron Throne with himself. However, I also think that what we see over the course of the tourney is Rhaegar's shift from that aim to full throated support of his father in the face of the plans of others to do away with not only Aerys, but with Targaryen rule. A focal point in time in which politics shift quickly. That this happens shouldn't be a surprise to anyone reading the many ways the game of thrones can change with the turn of a knife and the unexpected death of a leader. However, to understand this we can't just see Rhaegar as a love struck fool.

I argue that we must look to the political struggles that occur during the tourney as the starting point of understanding. In doing so we should start with the beginning of the tourney and how Aerys uses it for his own political purposes - undoubtedly with the counsel of Varys and the lickspittle lords of the small council. Aerys is there in a move to squelch his son's ability to organize to replace him. His unexpected attendance makes any moves by Rhaegar quite difficult as his father and Rhaegar's foes on the small council will use any close contact between Rhaegar with attendees at the tourney as a sign of their betrayal. But it is the singular act at the start of the tourney that sets this all in motion - the honor of swearing in the youngest man to ever belong to the sworn brotherhood of the Kingsguard.

Indeed, to Jaime it is the great honor of his life to don the white cloak and swear his life to his king. To Aerys, however, it is a masterstroke against his political enemies, starting with with stealing away Tywin's heir and taking Jaime as a de facto hostage against any future move by Tywin against his king. What also can't be lost in this great "honor" is that also Aerys destroys the marriage pact between House Tully and House Lannister. Further isolating his once Hand and forcing Tywin to resign his office. Cutthroat politics disguised as a high honor is the opening gambit of Harrenhal.

While this observation may be uncontroversial, somehow, further analysis of politics at Harrenhal seems to stop here by most observers. It is here that my previous speculation comes forward. I think we need to look to the interaction of the various political factions at the tourney. So, when the Lady Ashara Dayne, companion to Princess Elia and sister to Rhaegar's most trusted friend and protector, dances with Brandon and Ned Stark we should not only see a chance to enjoy music and perhaps fall in love, but also a chance to discuss alliances. When Ser Richard Lonmouth has a drinking contest with Robert Baratheon, perhaps there is more to this than an opportunity to get shit-faced drunk. And when Rhaegar and his close compatriots participate in the joust, it just might be an avenue to have private political discussions about replacing Aerys with their opponents in the jousts.

Why would we assume political maneuvering stopped or that only one side had political aims it was pursuing? I don't think we can.

While I openly admit we need much more information to connect all the dots, I also think dismissing politics at such a politically charged event is foolhardy. So, for instance, when we are told that Ashara Dayne was disgraced at Harrenhal, and one of the Starks is the most likely candidate for the father of a stillborn daughter that is the likely result of that disgrace then we must ask what brought Brandon or Ned together with Ashara? Was is just music and drink? Or was Ashara trying to get close to Brandon to deliver a message from Rhaegar and in the process got too close?

But I said I'd try to make this short, and I've already failed at that endeavor, so let me just deal with how I think Rhaegar's political stance changes during the course of the tourney. I think the Starks, at the very least, rejected Rhaegar's plan. Not because they supported Aerys, but because they had plans of their own that didn't include supporting any Targaryen on the throne. Those plans are summed up in the well known phrase "southron ambitions." I'm not going to go into detail what I think those are here, but I contend they were in opposition to Rhaegar's own. Not only did they reject Rhaegar's overtures, but they compounded that rejection with the disgrace of Ashara. It is in this light we best understand Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna.

Rhaegar gives Lyanna a great honor, just as his father did to Jaime. But the honor he gives has a unspoken symbolism to all. Not that Rhaegar was being disrespectful to Elia - though that may be true to some eyes. Not that Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna was taboo. But what it said, in addition to honoring Lyanna's beauty, is a declaration to all in attendance of Rhaegar's interest in Lyanna. An interest in who she married, and by symbolically inserting him into the question of Lyanna's love an interest in her betrothal to Robert. Rhaegar was certainly smitten by Lyanna, but what he does symbolically is to say the Targaryens are intruding into the rights of the Starks to decide whom Lyanna will marry. It is this, not Rhaegar thinking Lyanna is beautiful or he has the "hots" for her, that upset Brandon to the point of him having to be restrained. Rhaegar has shown his rejection of the Stark's southron ambitions and the marriages they have help engineer to carry them out. His crowning of Lyanna tells all of Westeros, not only that Lyanna is a beautiful young woman, but more importantly politically that Rhaegar now stands with his father against the High Lords who would oppose their continued rule and power. What was a fractured court of Targaryen versus Targaryen is now united against their plans.

How long does this alliance of father and son last? Precisely until Rhaegar runs off with Lyanna - thereby fulfilling his implicit threat with her crowning and  forever alienating the Starks and the Baratheons - AND by not bringing Lyanna and himself back to his father's control. A matter of months. That's how quickly the winds of Westerosi politics can change. Over the course of the fortnight of a tourney, and back again a few months later.

 

 

 

[SFDanny]

4 hours ago, St Daga said:

This is an interesting idea. It does make sense that this could be a way for Rhaegar to seek out important houses in a bid to express his intentions, or at least gauge how people might feel about him replacing his father on the throne. We are given the impression that Rhaegar was pretty intelligent. Also, a return of a man's armor without having to pay a price might also make those people more apt to appreciate Rhaegar. I am sure Rhaegar would not have been interested in the actual ransom sums. 

This doesn't necessarily negate the idea that Rhaegar might have hedged his bets to make sure he won, but he might have simply been the best jouster at Harrenhal, even better than Barristan Selmy, who was regarded as the finest lance in all the Seven Kingdoms. It's interesting that Jaime was sent away before this, because Jaime was supposed to be quite proficient at the joust himself. I wonder if it's possible for Aerys to have been manipulated into sending Jamie back to KL because there was cause to think that Rhaegar would not be able to beat Jaime in the Tourney?

Yes and we have important contacts noted outside the joust that I try to point out above. I'm not sure about Jaime. I'm afraid I have to go with the reason we are given - spite from Aerys to deny Jaime any glory. I'm not sure Aerys would take any advice from Rhaegar at this juncture. That doesn't mean it's impossible to use this spiteful attitude to predict and manipulate Aerys, but I also think whatever Jaime's skill with the lance it is very unlikely any of the Rhaegar's circle has a read of them yet. Only Ser Arthur has a history with him that I know of, and it's unlikely he was showing many jousting skills in the Kingswood Forest. I'll have to mull that one over, but I'd bet now that, if anything, Rhaegar would just underestimate Jaime's skills as a fifteen year old boy.

4 hours ago, St Daga said:

@corbon had given us this passage from the World Book which seems to hint at Rhaegar's intentions not to compete in the Tourney.

On direct level, this seems to indicate that Rhaegar had no intention of entering the jousts and that was common knowledge. But then he surprised people and did compete. But if he had no intention of jousting, why did he bring his armor to Harrenhal? We have some precedent in the story for someone who is not planning to compete not having their armor with them. That was Baelor "Breakspear" Targaryen. He did not plan on jousting at Ashford Meadow and so he did not bring his own armor, which is why he ended up wearing his son Valarr's armor in the Trial of Seven. Yet Rhaegar, who wasn't going to joust, did have his own armor at Harrenhal? Is there any reason to suspect that Rhaegar did not have his own armor at Harrenhal? Which might mean he always planned to joust, brought his own armor, but did not spread word of his plans to enter the Tourney until the last moment. This might be part of his political plan, although I admit I am not sure how or why. Unless he thought if it was known he wasn't going to joust, it might get more people included in the joust.  Not really sure, just trying to feel out why Rhaegar would have his armor with him if he had no intention of entering the joust.

It certainly shows Rhaegar changed his pattern of not participating in jousts, at least as of the time approaching Harrenhal. We don't know when Aerys announced he was going to the tourney, but Rhaegar's change could well, as I suggested, be a response to that. I would love to see who all participated in the jousting. Myles Mooton? Richard Lonmouth? Connington? We know Ser Barristan and Ser Arthur were two of the four Kingsguard who fell to Rhaegar, but who were the other two? Both Whent and Prince Lewyn are two of Rhaegar's close companions and partisans, so if they were in the tourney they could be used to meet with any other opponents they tilted against beside Rhaegar. We are going to have to rely on Selmy, Royce, Connington, maybe Lonmouth, or others unknown to find this stuff out.

[alienarea]

15 hours ago, LynnS said:

The term is interesting in the manner that Ned uses it.  To paraphrase, he says Brandon has a lot and Lyanna a little and it brought them both to and early death.  In this context, I think he is referring to anger and impulsive behavior.  The half-horse centaur description makes speculation about skinchanging a possibility or it could be that they were just skilled at riding. 

The wolf-blood is an allusion to direwolves and their ability to connect with Stark children developing the ability to warg/skinchange.  I don't think it's a coincidence that the direwolves  develop similar personalities to their master's, in our case the Stark kids.  They also serve as a connection to the weirwood and perhaps the old gods; if can take anything from the encounter between Tree-Bran and Ghost-Jon at the Skirling Pass.  The direwolves awaken warging abilities.  and enhance their I don't think Ned knows the true meaning of wolf-blooded.  But I have wondered if his generation had more of the wolf-blood than they knew.   Look at the children Lyanna and Ned produce.   

That would fit with Ned's old dream being a greendream.

Additional crackpot: maybe Howland's interference to save Ned from Arthur Dayne was not throwing a knife, shooting a crossbow or warging Arthur Dayne but triggering the wolf blood in Ned, i.e. putting him in berserker mode.

That could further explain why Ned doesn't fight at tourneys, because he knows what he could turn into and is afraid of this.

We need to know more about Lady Stark, the mother of Brandon, Eddard, Lyanna and Benjen.

[LynnS]

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I must admit I hadn't considered the possibility of a royal order by Aerys to his son to give Lyanna the crown of roses. My initial reaction is that I think it very unlikely. However, I've written many posts on why I think Rhaegar does so. Let me try to put down my thoughts on this succinctly. Forgive me, if I have a hard time being brief  about something I've thought a lot about.

Hello SFDanny and thank you for your thoughtful reply.  I know you have been thinking about the subject for a long time.  I'm energized when someone finds something that has been overlooked or not given enough consideration because our attention is diverted elsewhere.  So I agree with you about what was going on covertly and how alliances and plans were  made including using Ashera to pass messages during the dancing.   I think it's very subtle on Martin's part and he gives us Howland who pays particular attention to Ashera and with whom she is dancing.   Forging alliances would be a difficult thing to do with Aerys looking on and there is tension between father and son.  

At this stage, I don't know who Jon's father is really.  I have four candidates.  I haven't ruled out Rhaegar but I have just recently added Aerys.  LOL 

Basically, I think that Rhaegar is a moral character and so I have a hard time seeing him kidnap or rape anyone.  Likewise any ideas that he is using Lyanna as a vessel to fulfil a prophecy or hatch dragons.  I think raping and killing is more Aerys' profile.

I'd like to say more about the conflict between Aerys and Rhaegar but I'll have to do that a little later today.  We're going to get some weather and I have to take my elderly neighbor shopping this morning.  So I will come back to you on the rest of it.  I'll have to pull some quotes even though I think you know the story well enough not to need them.  

[LynnS]

1 hour ago, alienarea said:

That would fit with Ned's old dream being a greendream.

Additional crackpot: maybe Howland's interference to save Ned from Arthur Dayne was not throwing a knife, shooting a crossbow or warging Arthur Dayne but triggering the wolf blood in Ned, i.e. putting him in berserker mode.

That could further explain why Ned doesn't fight at tourneys, because he knows what he could turn into and is afraid of this.

We need to know more about Lady Stark, the mother of Brandon, Eddard, Lyanna and Benjen.

Yes, I've even wondered if Benjen was skinchanging Mormont's Raven at times or is having his second life as Mormont's Raven.  LOL. 

Howland intervened in some way for sure.  Ned says he would have died if it wasn't for Howland.  So big question mark, what did Howland do to save Ned's life.   We have a description of Howland's abilities from Meera, so I don't know if it extends to enhancing any latent abilities in Ned.  But Howland would certainly be interested in any green dreams.   I think he's been stuck to Ned like glue since Harrenhal and his purpose is to make sure that Ned lives to produce the next generation.