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Just Another R+L=D (and J) Theory - detailed


Marysa Blackfyre

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1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

You left part of that quote out, though.

That morning he called it first. "I'm Lord of Winterfell!" he cried, as he had a hundred times before. Only this time, this time, Robb answered, "You can't be Lord of Winterfell, you're bastard-born. My lady mother says you can't ever be the Lord of Winterfell." (Jon XII, ASoS 79)

She's not worried about it because Jon is a bastard. He cannot inherit anything. But Robb changes that when he puts it in his head to legitimize Jon. That's when Catelyn voices her concern. 

He doesn't know what he's talking about.

Especially when what he says goes against some posters’ head canon. :)

 

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17 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

From the timeline (I based my information on https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Years_after_Aegon's_Conquest/Calculations_Ages)

it seems not possible that Rhaegar+Lyanna = Dany & Jon.

Lyanna was caught/abducted by Rhaegar in 282 AC (1 year after the Tourney at Harrenhal).

Next time we hear about Lyanna is when she dies at the Tower of Joy in 283 AC.

Jon was born in 283 AC, Dany in 284.

Hence: Jon and Dany cannot share the same mother.

If you make circular arguments, based on fan-made timelines, which were composed on the assumption that Jon Snow was the baby born at the Tower of Joy when Ned arrived, and  Dany was born 7 or 8 months after that on Dragonstone, 9 months after the Sack, then of course the theory won't work.  Circular argument is circular.

If you want to make a real argument, you have to limit yourself to the evidence of the books.  You need to carefully reconsider the fan timelines.  Which are not canon.

Dany's birthdate is calculated on the assumption that she is the same baby who was born at Dragonstone 9 months after the Sack of King's Landing.  If she is not that baby, calculations need to be reconsidered.

Best I can figure, Lyanna's "abduction" lasted 20 months, and like you said, Lyanna could have been impregnated at Harrenhall before her abduction.  The Harrenhall tourney was at the end of 281, and the "abuction" somewhere around the beginning of 282, so we can add a few months, allowing roughly 2 years for 2 pregnancies.   GRRM said that Jon is not a full year older than Dany, but Babies born (say) 10 months apart is unusual, but not impossible.

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On 11/26/2019 at 2:30 PM, The Ned's Little Girl said:

As to Robb there's no reason to believe this is true. The theory of Jon being the older one doesn't have any foundation in the books.

Well, Jon has maybe transitioned to adulthood a bit more successfully than Robb did.  And Maester Luwin's line about bastard's maturing faster than true-born children, has been read by some as an attempt to explain away Jon's apparent maturity.

Also, Catelyn puts 2+2 together the rumors of Ned's affair with Ashara at Harrenhall, and Jon's birth, and asks Ned about her, leading him to order her to never ask him about Jon.

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Catelyn firmly believes that Ned had cheated on her, which wounds her deeply, yet she never considers that maybe he didn't.

The first part of this sentence is entirely false.  (Edit:  so is the second part).  Catelyn is not bothered at all that Ned cheated on her.  See text.  What bothered her is that he brought Jon to Winterfell.  She does not think he should be there, and wants nothing to do with him.  She has no interest in how old he is, except as it relates to her curiosity as to who the mother his.  And apparently one of the theories she is willing to consider is that he was sired on Ashara at Harrenhall, which would definitely make him older than Robb.

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How eagerly would she have grasped any evidence that Ned hadn't cheated, had she been able to see any evidence of it? 

How eagerly?  Not at all, apparently.  It's not an issue to her.  Regardless of whether the bastard was sired before or after her wedding, she does not think that Ned should bring his bastard to Winterfell.

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But she had no reason to consider it; Jon grew up in her house and she could observe his growth and see with her own eyes that he was younger than her son.

Her eyes did not prevent her from asking about Ned and Ashara and Harrenhall, in connection with Jon.  But if Jon was sired at Harrenhall, he was born in 282, and would be older than Robb.

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Ned outright says to Robert that he dishonored his wife and he allows Catelyn to believe that for their entire marriage.

I really don't think Ned wants to give King Herod Baratheon any clues about precisely when and where Jon Snow was born.  

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The people in the books might have a more medieval culture than us in some ways, but they know how babies grow. 

Modern people would not necessarily know the difference either, if told an 18 month old was 12 months old.   Most people accept what they are told.  They might say, "My, he's so big", but they will believe you.

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On ‎11‎/‎23‎/‎2019 at 3:47 AM, Marysa Blackfyre said:

In my opinion, Daenerys and Jon are twins

On further thought, if we assume that Lyanna is mother to Jon and Daenerys (be it birth at the same time or 9 months apart), which is what I conclude from your theory, then we have a major issue with the old prophecy Melisandre quotes: "When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt."

Melisandre is sure that smoke and salt means Dragonstone.

It all fits very well to Daenerys being the Stormborn (i.e. being born on Dragonstone). But Lyanna has never been there, as far as we know. She gave birth to Jon and/or Jon and Dany in Dorne (at the Tower of Joy). And there is no connection to "smoke and salt" for me.

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5 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Please read the second part of my post you refer to.

I read it.  I saw nothing I recognized as an argument from the books.  For instance, Tower of Joy need not have been 283.  It may have been 284.  It gets pushed to 283 in order to accommodate the usual version of R+L=J, which requires the Tower of Joy incident to occur very shortly after the sack, and about 8 months before Rhaella gives birth on Dragonstone.

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The Fisherman's Daughter story suggests Ned was with Jon's mother in 282.  
Before he came south and married Cat in 283.  

Jon might be slightly older than Robb, just smaller like Arya.  
So even if Jon is Ned's bastard, it would seem, that he didn't cheat on Cat.  

This may suggest the Red Comet was visible during the ToJ. 

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A storm of rose petals blew across a blood-streaked sky

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That's blood up there, child, smeared across the sky.

Which may suggest the ToJ happened when Aegon was conceived. 

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for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet.

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"And now it begins," said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning.

 

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On 11/27/2019 at 5:38 PM, Narsil4 said:

The Fisherman's Daughter story suggests Ned was with Jon's mother in 282.  
Before he came south and married Cat in 283.  

This goes against Ned's own words - that he dishonoured himself and Cat when she was with his child.

(Not to mention how little sense it makes to be so tight-lipped about Jon's mother if she was just a fisherman's daughter)

On 11/27/2019 at 5:38 PM, Narsil4 said:

Which may suggest the ToJ happened when Aegon was conceived. 

At the time of ToJ, Aegon was about a year old.

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2 hours ago, Ygrain said:

This goes against Ned's own words

Ned will lie to protect people he cares about. As he does for Sansa.

3 hours ago, Ygrain said:

(Not to mention how little sense it makes to be so tight-lipped about Jon's mother if she was just a fisherman's daughter)

I'm not suggesting she was really a fisherman's daughter.

Only that the story itself gives us a time and location for Ned and Jon's mother being together. 
Around the Vale, early in the war, before Ned goes south.

3 hours ago, Ygrain said:

At the time of ToJ, Aegon was about a year old.

We don't really know when the ToJ happened. 
But the appearance of the Red Comet may be a way to date it. 

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2 hours ago, Narsil4 said:

Ned will lie to protect people he cares about. As he does for Sansa.

I'm not suggesting she was really a fisherman's daughter.

Only that the story itself gives us a time and location for Ned and Jon's mother being together. 
Around the Vale, early in the war, before Ned goes south.

Well, if you believe Lord Borrell's account (who definitely wasn't there for Jon's conception), the one woman that Ned was seen around there was a fisherman's daughter. 

2 hours ago, Narsil4 said:

We don't really know when the ToJ happened. 
But the appearance of the Red Comet may be a way to date it. 

The ToJ happened after the Sack of KL and the lifting the Siege of Storm's End, i.e. after Aegon's death.

Doesn't mean there couldn't have been another comet.

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Incest plays a key role in the ASOIAF world.  Valyrians were inbred to maintain dragon riding and dragon hatching abilities, Craster uses incest to give Others sons, and Jamie and Cercei obviously practiced incest which put inbreds on the Iron Throne and was a spark that helped the start of the War of the Five Kings.  

At the Tourny of Harrenhal, when Rhaegar crowned Lyanna, the one guy who felt the most anger over this was Brandon Stark.  Brandon Stark was also the hot head who decided to march on Kings Landing demanding the Crown Prince be handed over which obviously was a bad idea.

Brandon was fostered in Barrowton while Lyanna was still in Winterfell.  Being accomplished riders, I dont think it is out of the question that they were able to meet each other somewhere in between on occasion.

The story of Lyanna crying while Rhaegar played his harp at the ToH is supposed to imply that she was falling for Rhaegar, but in my opinion her tears were due to hearing about Brandon's betrothal to Catelyn Tully.  Lyanna was in love with her brother.

I believe Jon is the son of Brandon and Lyanna.  The "Ned and the fisherman's daughter" story actually describes Lyanna's journey home with her younger brother Benjen.  And I believe Jon was born in the Crypts of Winterfell. 

It's tin foil, but those are my honest opinions. 

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9 minutes ago, Ahl of the House Cutler said:

The story of Lyanna crying while Rhaegar played his harp at the ToH is supposed to imply that she was falling for Rhaegar, but in my opinion her tears were due to hearing about Brandon's betrothal to Catelyn Tully.  Lyanna was in love with her brother.

Catelyn was betrothed to Brandon since she was twelve, that's at least 4 years before Harrenhal.

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1 minute ago, Crona said:

But we never hear her cry about this earlier

Had she heard Rhaegar play a sad and beautiful song before?  Could've triggered her to tears at that moment realizing she was losing him. 

My argument against Lyanna and Rhaegar is the same as Lyanna's argument against Robert.  If she was hesitant on marrying Robert because he wouldn't be loyal, why would she run off with Rhaegar who was already married?

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10 minutes ago, Ahl of the House Cutler said:

Had she heard Rhaegar play a sad and beautiful song before?  Could've triggered her to tears at that moment realizing she was losing him. 

My argument against Lyanna and Rhaegar is the same as Lyanna's argument against Robert.  If she was hesitant on marrying Robert because he wouldn't be loyal, why would she run off with Rhaegar who was already married?

Well, there are a lot of options and it doesn’t negate from RLJ. We aren’t told much information during this time and we don’t have a complete picture of Rhaegar and Elia. We know it was arranged and a complicated relationship. Though people outside give an opinion, they would hardly know what is going on. In contrast, why do you think Rhaegar crowned Lyanna instead of his wife? Elia was already pregnant at the time.

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I will not say "impossible" because this is George Martnin's story.  It is almost impossible though.  Too many witnesses on Dragonstone during her birth.  And that would not fit the prophecy that says the promised prince must come from the line of Aerys and Rhaella.  Coming from Rhaegar is not good enough.  The parents have to both be Targaryen. 

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39 minutes ago, Ahl of the House Cutler said:

Incest plays a key role in the ASOIAF world.  Valyrians were inbred to maintain dragon riding and dragon hatching abilities, Craster uses incest to give Others sons, and Jamie and Cercei obviously practiced incest which put inbreds on the Iron Throne and was a spark that helped the start of the War of the Five Kings.  

At the Tourny of Harrenhal, when Rhaegar crowned Lyanna, the one guy who felt the most anger over this was Brandon Stark.  Brandon Stark was also the hot head who decided to march on Kings Landing demanding the Crown Prince be handed over which obviously was a bad idea.

Brandon was fostered in Barrowton while Lyanna was still in Winterfell.  Being accomplished riders, I dont think it is out of the question that they were able to meet each other somewhere in between on occasion.

The story of Lyanna crying while Rhaegar played his harp at the ToH is supposed to imply that she was falling for Rhaegar, but in my opinion her tears were due to hearing about Brandon's betrothal to Catelyn Tully.  Lyanna was in love with her brother.

I believe Jon is the son of Brandon and Lyanna.  The "Ned and the fisherman's daughter" story actually describes Lyanna's journey home with her younger brother Benjen.  And I believe Jon was born in the Crypts of Winterfell. 

It's tin foil, but those are my honest opinions. 

Very possible for Jon to have come from Brandon and Lyanna.  It is a very good possibility. 

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