Will Dany burn Essos on the way to Westeros?

[Jon The Dragon]

What happens if Selmy goes over to Aegon?

[#1dolFAN]

Then Aegon gains some seriously wise council and a loyal advisor. But I don’t see Sir Selmy jumping around from King to Queen to King like some Whore Knight.

[Jon The Dragon]

If she destroys Essos en route to Westeros, I can see him switching over at one point, he has already served under a ruler who liked fire. R'hllor's people in Westeros might scare the shit out of him compared to the seven he knows. I'd like him to stay with Dany but I see the potential for him to switch over, along with Tyrion.

[Ygrain]

7 hours ago, SeanF said:

 One point about Jon's story is that quite often, very hard moral choices are taken out of his hands.  He can't bring himself to kill Ygritte. when she is captured, but it still turns out well for him.  He's spared the need to murder Mance Rayder by the timely arrival of Stannis.  He's asked whether he could bring himself to kill child hostages, but the need never arises.  Would Jon get his hands dirty, if he had to?  

Dany is frequently placed in situations where any decision she takes (or does not take) hurts someone.

You're still missing one crucial difference: getting one's hands dirty because more people die if you don't is an entirely different kettle of fish than getting one's hands dirty because you want something.  That is why I argued that Dany does NOT have a good moral compass, or at least not always. It absolutely wasn't necessary for her to instigate Drogo into pursuing the IT, and we yet have to see her deal with the consequences of her well-intentioned actions that totally blew into her face. So far, all I can see is a repetition of the Mirri scenario - she messes with people's lives, and feels betrayed when they don't act the way she thinks they should. In her eyes, they might "deserve" their fate then.

[SeanF]

9 hours ago, Ygrain said:

You're still missing one crucial difference: getting one's hands dirty because more people die if you don't is an entirely different kettle of fish than getting one's hands dirty because you want something.  That is why I argued that Dany does NOT have a good moral compass, or at least not always. It absolutely wasn't necessary for her to instigate Drogo into pursuing the IT, and we yet have to see her deal with the consequences of her well-intentioned actions that totally blew into her face. So far, all I can see is a repetition of the Mirri scenario - she messes with people's lives, and feels betrayed when they don't act the way she thinks they should. In her eyes, they might "deserve" their fate then.

Jon didn't need to wage a proxy war, through Stannis,  against the Boltons at Winterfell.  It is entirely understandable that he would do so.  I would have done so in his place.  I would want to take down the people who had betrayed and destroyed my family.  But, it was not a war waged in self-defence. 

You're right that Dany could choose to forego her claim to the Iron Throne (or rather, her child's at the point in question).  I think that Drogo would probably have sought to wage it, once the attempt was made on her life.    But, once Drogo was dead?  Again, I think there is a fair argument to be made that Dany should regard establishing a stable kingdom in Meereen as her life's work, and ignore the West.  But, this is a world in which avenging wrongs done to one's family is considered the right thing to do.

Edit:. All that said, I'm inclined to think that she's one of those characters, like Turin Turambar, or Ciri (from the Witcher series) who the author has doomed to failure, whatever she chooses.

[Bowen 747]

On 11/26/2019 at 6:03 AM, The Coonster said:

You can't end slavery without spilling blood.  The evil slavers will either do the moral thing and release their slaves or they will have to die.  It's better if slavery ends peacefully but we know that will not happen.  The slaves themselves will either revolt and slay their masters, which is justice in my opinion, or the Free People's Armies will come in with dragon support and force the ending to slavery.  But to be honest, Daenerys has enough on her plate.  The slaves outside of the bay will have to fight their own way to freedom. 

A free Meereen is the beacon of the light of freedom.  Success there will create the wave to end slavery in Essos. 

She has enough on her plate.  There has to be enough battles for the other leading characters to fight.  Daenerys will have two major battles.  The fight for freedom in Slaver's Bay to end slavery for good.  And the battle for Westeros.  The slaves will have to win their freedom from their masters because freedom doesn't just happen.  It is something that has to be won with blood if need be.  Vogarro's Widow and some of the other antislavery people like Benerro will lead the slave revolts.  The slaves with "bloody hands" in the vision calling out to Mhysa will have won their own freedom.

[Bowen 747]

On 11/28/2019 at 1:10 AM, SeanF said:

What one thinks of Daenerys depends a lot on what one thinks Martin wants to say about war.  If his argument is that war is never justified, regardless of cause, then Daenerys must have been wrong to fight against slavery, and will come to a bad end.  

If you take at face value, his statement that "some wars are worth fighting" then it is hard to see how her campaign in Slavers Bay can be anything other than just.

And, it would be hard to see how the Others could be defeated, in due course, without the use of force, and indeed, dragon fire. If dragons are WMD's, well, there are times WMD's need to be used.

One further point is that if it's wrong for Daenerys to wage war, then it must be just as wrong for Jon Snow, Robb Stark et al to wage war.  Which begs the question why she should be singled out as the bad guy?

You are making some great points.  GRRM himself is on record saying he would have fought the Nazis.  Daenerys is actually carrying out the only justified war.  Robb's war was not justified and entirely avoidable.  Going to war because one boy got crippled is not good. 

[SeanF]

2 minutes ago, Bowen 747 said:

You are making some great points.  GRRM himself is on record saying he would have fought the Nazis.  Daenerys is actually carrying out the only justified war.  Robb's war was not justified and entirely avoidable.  Going to war because one boy got crippled is not good. 

Thanks.  Then there's Martin's quote that "the people I admire most are the idealists, those who tried to make the world a better place.  Sometimes they succeeded, sometimes they failed, usually a mix of both."  It's hard to believe that he does not admire what Daenerys is attempting in Slavers Bay, even if the results are mixed.

[Bowen 747]

Just now, SeanF said:

Thanks.  Then there's Martin's quote that "the people I admire most are the idealists, those who tried to make the world a better place.  Sometimes they succeeded, sometimes they failed, usually a mix of both."  It's hard to believe that he does not admire what Daenerys is attempting in Slavers Bay, even if the results are mixed.

Agree, the results will be mixed but good in the long run.  Like the end of slavery in the American south brought hardships in the short term. 

[Greywater-Watch]

How Daenerys will deal with other cities in Essos, assuming she comes back to Mereen, probably with a Dothraki army at her tail?

First, she doesn't know yet that Volantis is close to a revolt by the slaves and that one big religion (the Red priests) are on her side.

In Astapor she gave the government to the slaves, which ended in a desaster.

In Mereen she reigned herself trying to integrate the slavers. Which ended in a desaster.

So, from pure logic I would assume that in the next cities she will get completely rid of all slavers (or at least make sure that they have no more power at all) and install her own government.

[Jon The Dragon]

Once a liberating force leaves an area, normally that's when revolt, uprisings and power grabs happen. Will the problems be fixed in Essos by the time Dany leaves? I don't see who she could leave in charge of each city at the moment. If the cities aren't destroyed by Dany, I can see future problems arising in each, while they try to get to grips with their new reality and social structures.

[#1dolFAN]

On 11/29/2019 at 7:24 AM, Jon The Dragon said:

Once a liberating force leaves an area, normally that's when revolt, uprisings and power grabs happen. Will the problems be fixed in Essos by the time Dany leaves? I don't see who she could leave in charge of each city at the moment. If the cities aren't destroyed by Dany, I can see future problems arising in each, while they try to get to grips with their new reality and social structures.

It’s called a power vacuum. Happened in the Middle East, after NATO took down the Taliban/Al-Quada, made room for ISIS to grow.

[#1dolFAN]

On 11/29/2019 at 3:30 AM, Bowen 747 said:

Going to war because one boy got crippled is not good. 

Let that be your child and say that.

[Darth Sidious]

On 11/29/2019 at 3:30 AM, Bowen 747 said:

You are making some great points.  GRRM himself is on record saying he would have fought the Nazis.  Daenerys is actually carrying out the only justified war.  Robb's war was not justified and entirely avoidable.  Going to war because one boy got crippled is not good. 

3 hours ago, #1dolFAN said:

Let that be your child and say that.

Catelyn should have placed the safety of the smallfolks over getting justice for Bran.  That's one of the main causes of problems in ASOIAF, putting family and loved ones first instead of duty. Duty must come first before family. 

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Dothraki Khal said:

Catelyn should have placed the safety of the smallfolks over getting justice for Bran.  That's one of the main causes of problems in ASOIAF, putting family and loved ones first instead of duty. Duty must come first before family. 

Catelyn was just unlucky to run into Tyrion at the Crossroads Inn.  Catelyn enjoys nothing but bad luck, throughout.

[#1dolFAN]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

Catelyn was just unlucky to run into Tyrion at the Crossroads Inn.  Catelyn enjoys nothing but bad luck, throughout.

Still would have gone to war with the Lannisters somehow eventually probably maybe.

[Ygrain]

On 11/28/2019 at 11:25 PM, SeanF said:

Jon didn't need to wage a proxy war, through Stannis,  against the Boltons at Winterfell.  It is entirely understandable that he would do so.  I would have done so in his place.  I would want to take down the people who had betrayed and destroyed my family.  But, it was not a war waged in self-defence. 

How so? Jon needs to fight the Others. Stannis is his sole ally with an army. The Boltons are not going to tolerate Stannis' presence in their territory, and getting rid of the Boltons gives Jon a chance to bring all of the North to his side. This is not just about Jon's personal wishes.

On 11/28/2019 at 11:25 PM, SeanF said:

You're right that Dany could choose to forego her claim to the Iron Throne (or rather, her child's at the point in question).  I think that Drogo would probably have sought to wage it, once the attempt was made on her life.    But, once Drogo was dead?  Again, I think there is a fair argument to be made that Dany should regard establishing a stable kingdom in Meereen as her life's work, and ignore the West.  But, this is a world in which avenging wrongs done to one's family is considered the right thing to do.

You're still missing the point. I do not criticise Dany so much for her actions but for her lack of reflection of the cost that her personal agenda takes. "If I look back, I am lost" was certainly a necessary coping mechanism but at the same time, it means she does not accept her guilt. She compares the Astapor failure to Eroeh and explains that she saved Eroeh from rape and torment only to finally make it worse for her, but absolutely fails to acknowledge that she put Eroeh into that situation but instigating Drogo to fight for her cause.

On 11/28/2019 at 11:25 PM, SeanF said:

Edit:. All that said, I'm inclined to think that she's one of those characters, like Turin Turambar, or Ciri (from the Witcher series) who the author has doomed to failure, whatever she chooses.

Eh.... Túrin fails because he makes the wrong choices, mostly due to his pride.

[Jon The Dragon]

From the view point at the wall, I'm pretty sure Jon now has Tormund and the wildlings as a start of an army along with probably Karhold available on request. I'm looking forward to the giants and mammoths getting through the wall at Eastwatch and seeing where they end up. Jons suggestion of tactics to Stannis helps both, as they both end up with men they need, without Jon leaving the wall. He only decides to leave the wall after the pink letter, his objective before that was manning the wall and abandoned castles.

[sweetsunray]

Meereen will end up as a disaster: I'm sure Tyrion and Selmy will be victorious over the Yunkai, together with Victarion, all by themselves, but those corpses of people who died by the pale mare being flung into the city and splashing all over is the city's doom. Meereen will go Astapor's way, with people fleeing and those not fleeing commiting suicide. And I don't expect them to wait out Dany's return. Even Selmy is starting to consider that Dany may be dead by the end of aDwD. On top of the pale mare, the free dragons flying about will add to the motivation for citizens to flee. And Selmy is getting sucked into political scheming by Shavepate. 

It will be as Dany thought to herself when she had just conquered Meereen and heard the first news of Astapor: everything she touches turns into dross. To me, GRRM is telling the POV story of the dragon in Saint George's legend. There a dragon poisons the countryside and potentially the well, and people are sacrificed to the dragon. Saint George hurts and captures the dragon with the aid of the princess who was supposed to be sacrificed to the dragon. Then both let the citizens decide whether the dragon should be killed or not, but if St. George kills the dragon, the people must convert to Christianity. In the legend, the dragon is "evil", a "poison" to the land itself. That's what happens whenever Dany acts or aims to do something: disease, burned lands and poisoned wells, violence... even amongst those she tries to save in her mind. George also always makes sure to show or tell us of children and women's fates. The twist is that George doesn't make the dragon "evil", but gives her a POV with noble intentions and attempting to dampen the consequences, and even becoming aware that whatever she does, it all ends up as a "dross", and trying to learn. But still, even then, it will end in violence, massacres, disease and ruin, and places that one needs to abandon because they have become unlivable.

Anyway - so Meereen will become hell on earth, just as Astapor was, and this before Dany can even return to Meereen. Moreover a deal was made with the Tattered Prince to take Pentos. So, I see Dany's army leave Meereen before her return. Both Tyrion's and Vic's beliefs about the fleet of Volantis, will prompt them to march and sail for the city.

It's possible that Dany sends a faction of the Dothraki to attack Qarth, but I don't think she'll be accompanying them. And as she journeys for Meereen she will learn of its fate and instead veer for Volantis too. Both Dany and Tyrion will meet up in Volantis and this city will surely be sacked and burned to a crisp, with the help of a slave revolt.

While Dany may consider doing the same to Myr, Tyrosh and Lys, I suspect these cities will send emissiaries to her to offer a deal. These cities mostly buy slaves. They're consumers, rather than capturers and trainers of slaves. With Slaver's Bay and the Dothraki slave capturers on their knees or on her side, as well as the bigger sellsword companies, and none of these cities having a standing army of their own, they will be smarter than the other cities. They promise to free their slaves and end all slave trade if she does not attack them. I think they will negotiate a peace treaty.

Dany may be intially reluctant to take Pentos, but Tyrion only has to inform her about Illyrio having raised Aegon with a half-maester, trained by a knight, a surrogate father, a septa etc... all the things Viserys and she lacked, and she will finally be convinced that Illyrio played her and her brother, and therefore agree to conquer Pentos for the Tattered Prince.

Will this last. I do think ending the slave trade will be Dany's legacy. With the Dothraki at her side and Slaver's Bay a rubble, the Essosi slave trade is put to a grinding halt.

[Jon The Dragon]

I had always assumed Dany would come through the Khyzai pass with the Dothraki and join the battle towards its end phase. Then leave for Westeros over land, sea and air.