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Jon The Dragon

Lady Stoneheart's destination

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I don't think Jaime was ordered to collect the hostages at The Twins, pretty sure he took that decision upon himself. Edmure and Jeyne have about 400 soldiers with them so I don't know if the BWB (even with the disarmed Riverlands force) could rescue them. The hostages at The Twins may be easier to get. The remaining Lannister force will be looking for Jaime now, so they need to get out of the area.

I don't see LSH going south or to The Vale. I see Westeros splitting into 2 storylines, The Riverlands and eventually The Vale will join The North. I think Jamie meets with Jon again at one point, LSH with her children, Howland Reed and maybe Theon, Brienne with Stannis. Maybe start with Seaguard. If The Twins and Moat Cailin fall then invasion from the south by anyone else is very hard, and all the enemies in The North can't escape. So many people potentially have hostages to swap there now as well. I also think the Umbers have Rickon and Osha in their possession too. LSH might think the fake Arya is real if Brienne withheld that information. Or could hear that Winterfell has potentially fallen to Stannis, with some Boltons / Freys prisoner. Any one of those things could draw LSH north. 

The south will be very busy eating itself with the Euron, Aegon, Cersei, Sparrows, Tyrell and Martell conflict, along with the fall out of Varys' actions. Im probably wrong, I don't think the crown has the resources to send more men to The Riverlands at the moment with so many enemies close by. I just see that's where it's headed in my opinion.

Edited by Jon The Dragon

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On 11/29/2019 at 11:47 AM, Jon The Dragon said:

If people are sure she still has enough tradition or custom in her to allow Jaime to take the black, does that not also mean she would remember her Tully words, Family, Duty, Honour. Jaime has her brother and Robb's wife hostage, this is why I don't think he will be killed any time soon. She didnt kill him before when Sansa and Arya were captive in KL. Also if Greatjon Umber is in Lannister custody then Jaime will potentially have Northern leverage too.

If she had to make the choice, would she choose enforcing Robb's will over killing Jaime? Or choose her family over his death. I think she would.

The problem is that the first time Jaime was a prisoner he didn t do anything to make cat have a personal vendetta against him and she was pretty desperate to have her daughters back.

Now she not only thinks Jaime was involved in the red wedding but also lied to her by not rescuing her daughters and fighting against tully forces. I doubt she is in the mood to keep him hostage given how it turned out the first time and if she knows people are rescuing edmure (and it is likely she knows) Jaime doesn t really have bargaining ships… Besides the fact that if the intention was to have a hostage Exchange then kevan should know about it by the end of dance...

3 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

LS doesn't seem to know much of current events North, let alone the latest. The only chain of people able to get word to LS about Rickon are the Glovers. One Glover is working together with Manderly, and knows of Davos being sent to fetch him. House Glover was freed from Asha's Ironborn hold over it, and there's a Glover with the Crannogmen, who are in contact with LS. However, it would again require some time, before the news reaches LS. The timing of events regarding the Glovers in aDwD allows for LS to learn of Rickon right about the start of tWoW.

Do you think Jaime will tell her that farya is fake?

And in regards to rickon, would anyone tell LS about him before being sure that the story is true and he was really in skaagos? Because that story is kind of sketchy… 

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1 hour ago, divica said:

The problem is that the first time Jaime was a prisoner he didn t do anything to make cat have a personal vendetta against him and she was pretty desperate to have her daughters back.

I'd say tossing her kid out the window and admitting he wanted the fall to kill him could cause a vendetta, then his son chopped Ned's head off :D Jaime has her son's wife who he could say is pregnant, possibly the heir to Riverrun and a crown. 

 

1 hour ago, divica said:

Now she not only thinks Jaime was involved in the red wedding but also lied to her by not rescuing her daughters and fighting against tully forces. I doubt she is in the mood to keep him hostage given how it turned out the first time and if she knows people are rescuing edmure (and it is likely she knows) Jaime doesn t really have bargaining ships… Besides the fact that if the intention was to have a hostage Exchange then kevan should know about it by the end of dance...

Brienne might be able to show somehow that Jaime didn't have anything to do with it, I don't think Jaime will be a hostage, I think he will end up working with or for LSH to achieve an objective, helping eliminate House Bolton and Frey might change her mind. He wants redemption and to prove his honour. Roose Boltons comment won't sit well with him as it brings all that into question, he seemed to respect Robb. I think he requested the hostages to piss off the Freys who were getting above themselves, just to show he had control over them. Jaime can have both sets of hostages freed from The Twins and The Westerlands (I don't know if they have reached Casterly Rock yet) without a single man dying.

 

1 hour ago, divica said:

Do you think Jaime will tell her that farya is fake?

And in regards to rickon, would anyone tell LS about him before being sure that the story is true and he was really in skaagos? Because that story is kind of sketchy… 

If not Jaime then Brienne might, if Jaime finds out about Roose's comment then he has no reason to defend him. I think LSH knows the real Arya is alive as they know about her journey with The Hound. I don't think she knows about Rickon yet, but if he appears the news will spread throughout all of The North rapidly. Some of the questioning of Theon and Jeyne Poole by the Northerners seems to suggest they might already have Rickon and Osha. 

Edited by Jon The Dragon

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1 hour ago, divica said:

The problem is that the first time Jaime was a prisoner he didn t do anything to make cat have a personal vendetta against him and she was pretty desperate to have her daughters back.

Jaime voluntarily admits to having flung Bran from the window and why, but denies sending the catspaw. Cat does think that if she had a knife in her hands right then and there, she'd kill him. But she fears the safety of her daughters and releases him. But yeah, he has done things by then she knows of to have a personal vendetta against him.

 

1 hour ago, divica said:

Do you think Jaime will tell her that farya is fake?

LS already knows fArya is fake. The BwB knows Sandor took Arya. The orphans are kept in the same inn where Sandor was seen together with a child, with both of them killing foes. By then the news is about already that fArya will be wed to Ramsay. Both cannot be Arya, and the BwB never took any action against the escort that had Jeyne Poole, despite those men showing no recitence against attacking and hanging Lannister soldiers. It's quite clear to me why LS has the orphans' inn there and Gendry "guarding" it... She hopes that either Arya herself or some wandering septon brings Arya there, and Gendry is there to identify her, since he was the closest. So, Jaime's information won't be news to her. It is possible that he may volunteer this information to prove himself, but LS will make clear she already knows this and buys him nothing.

1 hour ago, divica said:

And in regards to rickon, would anyone tell LS about him before being sure that the story is true and he was really in skaagos? Because that story is kind of sketchy… 

IMO there's a reason why GRRM includes Glover into Manderly's knowledge and plan, has the castle freed and a Glover with the crannogmen, as well as tips the readers off that LS is in contact with them via the BwB. Part of it has to do with the will. LS opposed Robb's choice of heir. If there's a chance that Rickon is alive, then yes, LS would be interested in a rumor even, and the BwB have been asking anyone they managed to get their hands on about Arya no doubt, operating on rumors, smallfolk witness accounts and acting on it. If they can do it for Arya, they will do so for Rickon as well.

Edited by sweetsunray

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4 hours ago, Jon The Dragon said:

Edmure and Jeyne have about 400 soldiers with them so I don't know if the BWB (even with the disarmed Riverlands force) could rescue them.

Their escort have to journey through a gorge. Ambiorix' rebels (vastly outnumbered) once wiped out an entire Roman legion that way with an ambush. All it requires is a canyon or gorge, rocks falling and causing panic and chaos, and then they can butcher the soldiers. When the Roman senate learned of this massive loss, they had Caesar explain himself, and he had to hasten himself back to Gaul to avenge himself upon Ambiorix' tribe. The tribe was eventually wiped out, but Ambiorix managed to elude the Romans (either crossed the Rhine or fled to Brittain). It is this account that prompted Caesar to write De Bello Gallico.

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14 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

IMO there's a reason why GRRM includes Glover into Manderly's knowledge and plan, has the castle freed and a Glover with the crannogmen, as well as tips the readers off that LS is in contact with them via the BwB. Part of it has to do with the will. LS opposed Robb's choice of heir. If there's a chance that Rickon is alive, then yes, LS would be interested in a rumor even, and the BwB have been asking anyone they managed to get their hands on about Arya no doubt.

Mixed in with all this could be Jon's identity as well I think, will add an interesting twist to things. Yes Rickon can be Lord of Winterfell / King in the North, but Jon has always been a king (I don't think they know about Aegon yet) I wonder how LSH would feel about that, or even Stannis if he finds out.

 

5 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Their escort have to journey through a gorge. Ambiorix' rebels (vastly outnumbered) once wiped out an entire Roman legion that way with an ambush. All it requires is a canyon or gorge, rocks falling and causing panic and chaos, and then they can butcher the soldiers. When the Roman senate learned of this massive loss, they had Caesar explain himself, and he had to hasten himself back to Gaul to avenge himself upon Ambiorix' tribe. The tribe was eventually wiped out, but Ambiorix managed to elude the Romans (either crossed the Rhine or fled to Brittain). It is this account that prompted Caesar to write De Bello Gallico.

Impressive knowledge! If that happens they could kill the hostages by mistake, it's a very indiscriminate way of wiping people out, effective though!

Edited by Jon The Dragon

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1 minute ago, Jon The Dragon said:

Impressive knowledge! If that happens they could kill the hostages by mistake, it's a very indiscriminate way of wiping people out, effective though!

I doubt the rebels would kill the hostages, but no doubt in such an attack hostages are at risk and some will die. I'm certainly inclined to believe Jeyne's mother may end up being killed, and perhaps one of the sympathetic characters ends up being killed by one of the Lannister soldiers. 

My suspicion grew though when Jaime augmented the numbers of the escort as a precaution, and the logical route would pass the Golden Tooth. We don't know all the details of the location, but it heavily suggests the Golden Tooth is a pass, and therefore a gorge. Then we have the Blackfish who was the Knight of the Gate at the pass of the Bloody Gate, and thus is very much acquainted with potential raid tactics in such setting. The difference between the pass towards the Golden Tooth and the one of the Vale is that the latter has battlements. I doubt the gorge at the entrance of the Westerlands has those, but simply relies on the advantage of the castle defending the high pass. But if an attacking force only is interested in a rescue attempt, and not attacking the Westerlands or the Golden Tooth, they can completely ignore the castle. 

And then there's Blackfish method of disappearing - he swam away, eluding all the soldiers guarding the water passages. This sounds quite like Ambiorix' disappearance.

Another parallel is how the whole Ambiorix attack starts - with a siege of a Roman encampment. Ambiorix played the mediator there, claiming to come to the aid of the Romans and not being involved with the rebels besieging them. He negotiated a "free passage" to the legion, that if they left the camp none would come to harm. In fact, he was the leader and the free passage was a lie to lure the legion away from the field into an area where he could massacre them. In aFfC, we have Tom playing the infiltrant, Edmure as mediator, Jaime offering "free passage" to the previous armed guards, and a well trained armed to the teeth Lannister escort.

George is setting up a "can't be done" idea with the reader, but uses several key elements of the Ambiorix story. It's not the most obvious famous historical battle, but easily retrievable when doing some historical research on battles. And with the assassination on Jon he already referenced Caesar.

 

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32 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

IMO there's a reason why GRRM includes Glover into Manderly's knowledge and plan, has the castle freed and a Glover with the crannogmen, as well as tips the readers off that LS is in contact with them via the BwB. Part of it has to do with the will. LS opposed Robb's choice of heir. If there's a chance that Rickon is alive, then yes, LS would be interested in a rumor even, and the BwB have been asking anyone they managed to get their hands on about Arya no doubt, operating on rumors, smallfolk witness accounts and acting on it. If they can do it for Arya, they will do so for Rickon as well.

Here I completly disagree.

First, just because they are glovers doesn t mean they are in contact with each other. They might not even know where each Glover is at the moment so comunication is almost impossible. The only familly that might have comunicated with the people holding the will are the mormonts because bear Island was never taken by the IB.

Then no matter what LSH wants robb's will supercedes her wishes. And any house loyal to robb would be hard pressed to follow his will. I am not even sure how much loyalty most northern lords will have towards her given her actions in the war, that she is Southern and that there are 1 or 2 sons of Ned around for them to follow...

And finally, is she in control of the entire Bwb? Is the BwB interested in what happens in the north? Are they interested in suporting a stark getting control of the north?

1 hour ago, Jon The Dragon said:

I don't think Jaime will be a hostage, I think he will end up working with or for LSH to achieve an objective, helping eliminate House Bolton and Frey might change her mind. He wants redemption and to prove his honour. Roose Boltons comment won't sit well with him as it brings all that into question, he seemed to respect Robb. I think he requested the hostages to piss off the Freys who were getting above themselves, just to show he had control over them. Jaime can have both sets of hostages freed from The Twins and The Westerlands (I don't know if they have reached Casterly Rock yet) without a single man dying.

This is impossible. As I said some posts ago Jaime won t help the BwB to start a rebellion against his familly… Against his son! No matter what his fellings about the freys are they are the ones keeping the riverlands loyal to the lannisters. And LS has no reason to believe anything Jaime or brienne says… Seriously, Jaime should be one the people LSH hates the most….

1 hour ago, Jon The Dragon said:

If not Jaime then Brienne might, if Jaime finds out about Roose's comment then he has no reason to defend him.

Again the same problem. The boltons are the only lannister allies in the zone. He can t help overtrow them without puting his son in danger...

I don t know why you insist on having Jaime betraying his familly and starting a war against his son. He will never do that!

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4 minutes ago, divica said:

Again the same problem. The boltons are the only lannister allies in the zone. He can t help overtrow them without puting his son in danger...

I don t know why you insist on having Jaime betraying his familly and starting a war against his son. He will never do that!

I just don't see LSH killing him, I see his story continuing or he could of just been killed off in the last book, to wait this long just to hang him instantly on sight would be a shame. Maybe through negotiation a mutual peace could be arranged where The North doesn't take up arms against the crown in exchange for his assistance and help with recognition in The North. Through negotiation they could both gain from each other, The North and honourable redemption. It's a fair price to pay for his life and honour. If Cersei wins her trial and had a choice would she pay that price, if she thought Jamie was a hostage? Is a northern kingdom worth Jaime's life to her or LSH?

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1 hour ago, divica said:

Here I completly disagree.

First, just because they are glovers doesn t mean they are in contact with each other. They might not even know where each Glover is at the moment so comunication is almost impossible. The only familly that might have comunicated with the people holding the will are the mormonts because bear Island was never taken by the IB.

Then no matter what LSH wants robb's will supercedes her wishes. And any house loyal to robb would be hard pressed to follow his will. I am not even sure how much loyalty most northern lords will have towards her given her actions in the war, that she is Southern and that there are 1 or 2 sons of Ned around for them to follow...

And finally, is she in control of the entire Bwb? Is the BwB interested in what happens in the north? Are they interested in suporting a stark getting control of the north?

You are forgetting the timeline. What I find interesting here is how George spreads events that each time include and involve House Glover. And yes, this most definitely allows for the Glovers to communicate.

Galbart was sent to the Neck together with Maege Mormont in aSoS. The Mormonts of BI refused Stannis' call early on in aDwD, but show up anyway for Deepwood Motte of House Glover around halfway of the book (Wayward Bride). Weird to say the least. So what changed? It seems to me that Lyanna and Alysanne may have had word of Galbart and Maege that prompted them to free Galbart Glover's castle.

Davos arrived at White Harbor and was imprisoned there before Wayward Bride. Robbett ends up in White Harbor, while Davos is in the Wolf's Den. He's there long enough to heave learned about all the stuff Ramsay has been doing and Wex's tale, having built enough trust to develop a way to communicate with the mute boy. Shortly after, Deepwood Motte is freed. Robett wasn't with Manderly at WF and George made sure that Deepwood Motte was rescued by anti-Bolton factions. If Manderly got rid of the Freys in pies, he could easily manage his Lannister related maester to be distracted and have Robett communicate with Deepwood Motte, and Alysanne would have had time to communicate with Galbart's wife. Deepwood Motte is close by a shore and the Mormont ships were free to be used to go wherever Glovers and Mormonts would require them to go.

Now, I'm sure that Galbart and Maege would try to uphold Robb's will, but it is also understood that Robb made Jon his heir, because he believed his brothers to be dead. I cannot even begin to comprehend why you think Galbart and Maege would balk at following Rickon Stark in favour of Jon Snow. Furthermore, Galbart and Maege showed no ill will to Catelyn's actions of freeing Jaime and LS initiated contact with the Neck by sending men of the BwB there. The Mormont women even extended sympathy to Cat.

Also may I remind you that Galbart was given command of the outriders and spies by Robb. He is someone George already given the role to seek out information to strategize with, and that role imo can be extended to passing and gathering info over distance.

Jaime's aDwD chapter takes place a while after Davos IV and Wayward Bride. It occurs after the King's Prize, and thus occurs somewhere between Stannis sets out from the liberated Deepwood Motte and arrives at the Crofter's village with the iced lakes, or shortly after Asha's arrival there. So, that even allows LS time to learn of Rickon by the time she captures Jaime. 

Yes, LS is in control of the entire BwB still operating in the RL, even if some former members may have left the RL (such as Edric Dayne). But the Red Wedding and the revived Catelyn certainly altered the BwB in choosing the side of smallfolk + Starks. Sure, Thoros may not like the changes, but he seems the only one, and he was the sole one with a close connection to Beric. None of the others question LS' will, but eagerly embrace it. Washerwomen amongst the besieged RR and Raventree aid the BwB in capturing whomever LS wants and she ends up getting Robb's crown back. So, all the BwB cells burning fires from RR, Raventree, Pennytree to the Crossroads Inn (=Orphans' inn) and Hollow Hill operate in favor of LS.

 

Edited by sweetsunray

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I agree, you word it much better than I can! There is certainly some things going on between the houses of The Riverlands and The North, I believe Jaime will end up being an essential part of that story somehow.

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28 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Now, I'm sure that Galbart and Maege would try to uphold Robb's will, but it is also understood that Robb made Jon his heir, because he believed his brothers to be dead. I cannot even begin to comprehend why you think Galbart and Maege would balk at following Rickon Stark in favour of Jon Snow.

Even if he wrote his will under the premise that his brothers were dead the fact is that he wrote the document. And simply by legitimizing jon he makes him his heir… 

Don t Forget that Ned was already dead. Why should people follow a younger brother over the older brother? Follow a missing 5 year old child over a young man in a time of war? Follow the mother wishes over their dead king? As long as jon is legimitized the northern lords have no reason to chose rickon over him. The only one that would do it is Cat... And I am not even mentioning the political nightmare that wyman is creating promising the north will follow stannis if davos brings rickon back. 

39 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Galbart was sent to the Neck together with Maege Mormont in aSoS. The Mormonts of BI refused Stannis' call early on in aDwD, but show up anyway for Deepwood Motte of House Glover around halfway of the book (Wayward Bride).

They don t show up because stannis asked them. They were there because they decided to be there.

40 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Davos arrived at White Harbor and was imprisoned there before Wayward Bride. Robbett ends up in White Harbor, while Davos is in the Wolf's Den. He's there long enough to heave learned about all the stuff Ramsay has been doing and Wex's tale, having built enough trust to develop a way to communicate with the mute boy. Shortly after, Deepwood Motte is freed. Robett wasn't with Manderly at WF and George made sure that Deepwood Motte was rescued by anti-Bolton factions.

Here you are showing your timeline problem. If Deepwood Motte is freed after davos arrives the plan to send davos to rescue rickon is done before Robbet can comunicate with deepwood Motte and therefore he couldn t know about the will.

45 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

If Manderly got rid of the Freys in pies, he could easily manage his Lannister related maester to be distracted and have Robett communicate with Deepwood Motte, and Alysanne would have had time to communicate with Galbart's wife. Deepwood Motte is close by a shore and the Mormont ships were free to be used to go wherever Glovers and Mormonts would require them to go.

Here we continue with the problems. Why would alysanne talk about the will with galbart's wife and why would she tell robbet about it in a letter? If the idea was to inform the northern houses the mormonts could have sent letters to all northern houses explaining there is a will...

We clearly know that the mormonts want a stark as king and we have wyman and robbet acting against their wishes promising to follow stannis. Just these simple actions show they aren t acting together.

49 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Furthermore, Galbart and Maege showed no ill will to Catelyn's actions of freeing Jaime and LS initiated contact with the Neck by sending men of the BwB there. The Mormont women even extended sympathy to Cat.

The problem is we have no idea what LSH wants with the neck. We have no idea if the northerns agreed with whatever she wants… And as a tully whose children are all missing or presumed dead cat has very little power in the north... Who would follow her?

52 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Yes, LS is in control of the entire BwB still operating in the RL, even if some former members may have left the RL (such as Edric Dayne). But the Red Wedding and the revived Catelyn certainly altered the BwB in choosing the side of smallfolk + Starks. Sure, Thoros may not like the changes, but he seems the only one, and he was the sole one with a close connection to Beric. None of the others question LS' will, but eagerly embrace it. Washerwomen amongst the besieged RR and Raventree aid the BwB in capturing whomever LS wants and she ends up getting Robb's crown back. So, all the BwB cells burning fires from RR, Raventree, Pennytree to the Crossroads Inn (=Orphans' inn) and Hollow Hill operate in favor of LS.

The point is you dont know if the BwB hasn t divided itself. Why must all those people be working for LSH? Why can t some of them be working for edric dayne for exemple?

 

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49 minutes ago, Jon The Dragon said:

I'd like to know what goes on with the will situation as it names Jon, but Rickon is about and one of the northern mountain tribes at least knows about Bran being alive.

It is pretty clear.

Above all else the will legitimizes Jon and that makes him his heir despite his younger brothers being alive.

However jon is a man of the NW... On the other hand robb probably wrote in the will his intention for the NW to release jon. Besides, even aemon when he was a maester was ofered the throne despite egg being alive. So it isn t something unthinkable for the lords to accept a king that belongs to a organisation similar to the NW… However jon might not accept being king in order to not steal something from bran or rickon...

 

On the whole jon his robb's heir and wether he becomes king or not depends on if people accept him leaving the Nw.

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3 minutes ago, divica said:

Even if he wrote his will under the premise that his brothers were dead the fact is that he wrote the document. And simply by legitimizing jon he makes him his heir… 

Don t Forget that Ned was already dead. Why should people follow a younger brother over the older brother? Follow a missing 5 year old child over a young man in a time of war? Follow the mother wishes over their dead king? As long as jon is legimitized the northern lords have no reason to chose rickon over him. The only one that would do it is Cat... And I am not even mentioning the political nightmare that wyman is creating promising the north will follow stannis if davos brings rickon back. 

You're wilfully ignoring that if Robb had known his brothers were alive, he would never legalized Jon over them, nor would Ned Stark. Maege and Galbart I'm sure will not ignore that. It doesn't have anything to do with doing Catelyn's will, but what they know Robb would do with such knowledge.

LMAO on the " issue of following a 5 year old child". Sure, none of them would expect Rickon to give them military commands. So what? Aegon III was a kid and had no military leadership. His vassals who chose the Blacks' side did the stategizing for him. Do you really think that Galbart and Maege would feel they cannot map out a strategy to retake the North with Rickon Stark not being of help? Hell, the Mountain Clans don't mind going to war for "Ned's little girl". Ned's little girl doesn't have military experience either.

3 minutes ago, divica said:

They don t show up because stannis asked them. They were there because they decided to be there.

I didn't claim they showed up because Stannis asked them. In fact, my point is that they freed Deepwood Motte for their own reasons. With Maege and Galbart sent together to the Neck, it seems to me that Alysanne left to free Deepwood Motte, because she's acting on the request of people off page, likely Galbart and Maege.

17 minutes ago, divica said:

Here you are showing your timeline problem. If Deepwood Motte is freed after davos arrives the plan to send davos to rescue rickon is done before Robbet can comunicate with deepwood Motte and therefore he couldn t know about the will.

Actually, it's not a problem. Sure, the plan to rescue Rickon comes from Manderely and Robett, and not from Galbart and Maege, nor does Robett knows of Robb's will at the time. I didn't try to claim either thing.

The point is that once Deepwood Motte, Robett is at liberty to communicate with Deepwood Motte and Deepwood Motte is at liberty to communicate with Galbart and Maege, wherever they are. That's when Galbert and Maege learn of Rickon's whereabouts, and Robett can also be informed of their off-page plans. Both can then adjust these plans.

Quote

 

Here we continue with the problems. Why would alysanne talk about the will with galbart's wife and why would she tell robbet about it in a letter? If the idea was to inform the northern houses the mormonts could have sent letters to all northern houses explaining there is a will...

We clearly know that the mormonts want a stark as king and we have wyman and robbet acting against their wishes promising to follow stannis. Just these simple actions show they aren t acting together.

 

Why wouldn't Alysanne talk about GALBART with Galbart's wife?  I didn't claim that Alysanne would talk about the WILL with Galbart's wife, but surely if Alysanne freed Deepwood Motte because information she received by Galbart and Maege, she would pass on the news to Galbart's wife that her husband is alive, where he is, and relay any strategic information that pertains the cooperation of Deepwood Motte to accomplish whatever those two want done.

As for the will, of course Alysanna is not going to send letters about the will to ALL northern houses, since several are not trustworthy. But yeah, perhaps Lyanna or Alysanne did send letters about the will to plenty of houses. The mountain clan leaders at the Wall are there for more than just checking out what the wildlings may be up to. They're there to check out Jon too.

True they weren't acting together in the chapters we saw. I didn't claim they were acting together then. The point is that Robett and Galbart can start to act together and merge the plans AFTER Wyman left for Winterfell.

36 minutes ago, divica said:

The problem is we have no idea what LSH wants with the neck. We have no idea if the northerns agreed with whatever she wants… And as a tully whose children are all missing or presumed dead cat has very little power in the north... Who would follow her? 

Hello, "Ned's little girl". Of course she still has power in the North. The northerners do not regard Catelyn as a southern Tully, but as Lady Stark. And we have had several examples where a widow is respected as ruler by northerners - see lady Dustin, lady Hornwood, etc...

You're also forgetting that Robb wasn't just king of the North but the Riverlands as well. Hell they fought most of the war in the Riverlands to come to the Tully aid. So, they would have an interest in cooperating with the BwB, Robb's mother, etc.

And indeed, we do not know what LS wants with the Neck. My point was that there is a communication line with LS and the Neck. The rest is speculation.

43 minutes ago, divica said:

The point is you dont know if the BwB hasn t divided itself. Why must all those people be working for LSH? Why can t some of them be working for edric dayne for exemple?

  • Because Beric gave up his life for Cat
  • Because the hints we get of BWB actions require networking across an extensive region and eventually arrange for LS to end up having Robb's crown.

As for Edric Dayne

  • He was only tied to the BwB because he was Beric's squire
  • Once Beric died, Edric is free to journey back to Dorne and serve his house

If Edric didn't return home to Dorne, then alternatively Edric may have died. He truly wasn't well in the last chapter we saw of him.

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8 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

You're wilfully ignoring that if Robb had known his brothers were alive, he would never legalized Jon over them, nor would Ned Stark. Maege and Galbart I'm sure will not ignore that. It doesn't have anything to do with doing Catelyn's will, but what they know Robb would do with such knowledge.

The problem is that it is completly irrelevant what robb would do if he knew his brothers were alive. He legitimized jon and there is no turning that back. And as jon stark he his robb's heir wether rickon and bran are alive or not. This is the law.

11 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

LMAO on the " issue of following a 5 year old child". Sure, none of them would expect Rickon to give them military commands. So what? Aegon III was a kid and had no military leadership. His vassals who chose the Blacks' side did the stategizing for him. Do you really think that Galbart and Maege would feel they cannot map out a strategy to retake the North with Rickon Stark not being of help? Hell, the Mountain Clans don't mind going to war for "Ned's little girl". Ned's little girl doesn't have military experience either.

First the northern clans are going to war to save "ned's little girl". They don t plan to follow her or put her in charge of the north.

Secondly, there is a diference between following a child because there is no other candidate and folowing a child despite another candidate. What I am saying is that following an adult is more atractive than following a child. And in times of war it is even more important to follow and adult because it is the leader that inspires his followers and gains new allies. Don t Forget that that nobody will follow rickon for who he is or the decisions he takes. They would follow him because of who his father was. On the other hand an adult can gain allies due to his style of rulling… And I am not even arguing about the political nightmare that it would be to chose a regent that everybody would follow...

17 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

I didn't claim they showed up because Stannis asked them. In fact, my point is that they freed Deepwood Motte for their own reasons. With Maege and Galbart sent together to the Neck, it seems to me that Alysanne left to free Deepwood Motte, because she's acting on the request of people off page, likely Galbart and Maege

Alysanne might not be following any orders to free DM. If she tought she could do it with her men she might have just decided to do it… Maybe she think it will be important to have DM once galbart returns noth… Maybe galbart asked her to free his familly because he cares about his familly. We really don t know why she did it.

21 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Actually, it's not a problem. Sure, the plan to rescue Rickon comes from Manderely and Robett, and not from Galbart and Maege, nor does Robett knows of Robb's will at the time. I didn't try to claim either thing.

The point is that once Deepwood Motte, Robett is at liberty to communicate with Deepwood Motte and Deepwood Motte is at liberty to communicate with Galbart and Maege, wherever they are. That's when Galbert and Maege learn of Rickon's whereabouts, and Robett can also be informed of their off-page plans. Both can then adjust these plans.

The problem is that then there hasn t been time for all the glovers to comunicate. So far the plans we actually know are all independent. Then you are assuming that maege and galbart aren t marching somewhere and can comunicate with Glover. This is higly unlikely! These 2 people must be doing something. And you are also assuming that the glovers will write about a will and looking for rickon in letters. They might not want to write this information and therefore Robett would need to travel to the neck.

28 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Why wouldn't Alysanne talk about GALBART with Galbart's wife?  I didn't claim that Alysanne would talk about the WILL with Galbart's wife, but surely if Alysanne freed Deepwood Motte because information she received by Galbart and Maege, she would pass on the news to Galbart's wife that her husband is alive, where he is, and relay any strategic information that pertains the cooperation of Deepwood Motte to accomplish whatever those two want done. 

As for the will, of course Alysanna is not going to send letters about the will to ALL northern houses, since several are not trustworthy. But yeah, perhaps Lyanna or Alysanne did send letters about the will to plenty of houses. The mountain clan leaders at the Wall are there for more than just checking out what the wildlings may be up to. They're there to check out Jon too.

True they weren't acting together in the chapters we saw. I didn't claim they were acting together then. The point is that Robett and Galbart can start to act together and merge the plans AFTER Wyman left for Winterfell.

I agree that alysanne would tell that galbart is alive to his wife. But despite informing her of galbart plans it helps very little in terms of comunication. Dont Forget that if galbert isn t in a castle then it is very unlikely that people can comunicate with him.

Actually, ramsay's insistence on the word bastard in the PL might be because he learned of robb's will that legitimises jon. That would be a cool detail I never thought about...

But you have no idea when they might start to work together. IT might not have happened by the end of dance...

35 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:
  • Because Beric gave up his life for Cat
  • Because the hints we get of BWB actions require networking across an extensive region and eventually arrange for LS to end up having Robb's crown.

But it is pretty weird for grrm to talk discontent and some members disapearing and there not being some kind of division.

ps can Galbart Glover be the hooded man? Like he went to winterfell to win some allies...

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Regarding all of this, if Jon knows any of the Stark kids are alive he would pass on any Northern title to them first, he wouldn't want to steal their right. The Lords and LSH might argue about it but Jon 'wouldn't want it' (Ironic haha.) Even if he finds out his true identity he won't want to take any title away from the Starks, he would probably see the Iron Throne as his duty though.

Perhaps that's what GRRM said to D&D as a secret and they got it confused 'Jon doesn't want it' but didn't specify what it, exactly was :D

Edited by Jon The Dragon

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33 minutes ago, divica said:

The problem is that it is completly irrelevant what robb would do if he knew his brothers were alive. He legitimized jon and there is no turning that back. And as jon stark he his robb's heir wether rickon and bran are alive or not. This is the law.

Euhm you mistake yourself in the "law". First of all, this is a new kingdom (a kingdom of the RL and the North), and Robb was its first king. And secondly, even if we apply Stark inheritance custom or that of the Targs: a trueborn brother comes before a legitimized brother. Even if Jon was legitimized as Ned Stark's son, he still isn't trueborn (as far as they know). And we don't know exactly how the will was worded. It may have included a conditional clause, that Robb meant in the case Arya was found. I do think it's safe to conclude that he barred Sansa from being an heir. 

33 minutes ago, divica said:

First the northern clans are going to war to save "ned's little girl". They don t plan to follow her or put her in charge of the north.

What makes you so certain of that? If they don't know about the will, and believe Rickon and Brandon dead, I'm pretty sure they regard her to be Lady Stark of Winterfell.

33 minutes ago, divica said:

Secondly, there is a diference between following a child because there is no other candidate and folowing a child despite another candidate. What I am saying is that following an adult is more atractive than following a child. And in times of war it is even more important to follow and adult because it is the leader that inspires his followers and gains new allies. Don t Forget that that nobody will follow rickon for who he is or the decisions he takes. They would follow him because of who his father was. On the other hand an adult can gain allies due to his style of rulling… And I am not even arguing about the political nightmare that it would be to chose a regent that everybody would follow...

That's utter bullshit! History, even Westeros' history negates that. Just look at the Vale! Why the hell do you think the Lords Declarant wanted Sweetrobin for? It's ONLY when Royce fails to get Sweetrobin for a ward that he invests in making Hardyng a knight. Kings and Queens or even overlords don't need to be adults, and most vassals do not have an issue with the candidate being a child. In fact, at times they may prefer it, for it allows them more power, than having to listen to a teenager telling them how to fight a war.

33 minutes ago, divica said:

Alysanne might not be following any orders to free DM. If she tought she could do it with her men she might have just decided to do it… Maybe she think it will be important to have DM once galbart returns noth… Maybe galbart asked her to free his familly because he cares about his familly. We really don t know why she did it.

Yup, we don't know. Then why the hell are you posting speculation in a speculative thread? Bit of a double standard you apply here, no? You may speculate about what will happen in a book that still needs to be published, but I may not speculate about the reasons and motivations of the choices of characters and events that already happened on page? MIghty convenient for you.

 

33 minutes ago, divica said:

The problem is that then there hasn t been time for all the glovers to comunicate.

No. They had time to communicate SINCE Deepwood Motte was freed. There's about a month between freeding Deepwood Motte and the capture of Jaime. So, yes, since Stannis started to march for Winterfell, all Glovers could have been communicating.

Quote

Then you are assuming that maege and galbart aren t marching somewhere and can comunicate with Glover. This is higly unlikely! These 2 people must be doing something. And you are also assuming that the glovers will write about a will and looking for rickon in letters. They might not want to write this information and therefore Robett would need to travel to the neck.

Bullshit. I don't assume anything. I'm just pointing out the possible scenarios off page since we last saw Deepwood Motte, and you're straw manning them into assumptions. The only one I see making great leaps of assumptions are you about "inheritance law" about vassals preferring adult Starks over child Starks, about not caring about a trueborn son of Ned, about them seeing Cat as an "outsider", etc...

33 minutes ago, divica said:

But it is pretty weird for grrm to talk discontent and some members disapearing and there not being some kind of division.

Smokescreen by George. The impression most people have when reading about Thoros' lament towards Brienne is that the BwB is falling apart and becoming an insignificant faction. This was purposefully done by George so they would be surprised when the BwB takes far more significant actions to retake RR and rescue hostages. The attentive re-reader recognizes we're getting a lot of hints about the BwB's organized activity in Jaime's chapters of aFfC. Radio Westeros helped in alerting readers to this. 

But the sole character showing and expressing discontent is Thoros. There are totally reasonable explanations for Edric being missing. In fact, I find it more logical that he isn't with the BwB than that he would still be around in the RL after Beric's death. The other BwB guys that are missing, were already sent on missions by Beric in aSoS, long before LS was revived by him.

PS: on the hooded man - I fall into the category of those who lean towards Theon Durden. Any of the other candidates just sounds like wishful thinking to me.

Edited by sweetsunray

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41 minutes ago, Jon The Dragon said:

Regarding all of this, if Jon knows any of the Stark kids are alive he would pass on any Northern title to them first, he wouldn't want to steal their right. The Lords and LSH might argue about it but Jon 'wouldn't want it' (Ironic haha.) Even if he finds out his true identity he won't want to take any title away from the Starks, he would probably see the Iron Throne as his duty though.

This.

Now I also want to add that I do not think Rickon will survive the story or even the coming book. I don't even believe he will ever set foot in Winterfell again. But I do recognize that just his name is enough for people to rally behind, and imo that includes Maege and Galbart Glover who know the content of the will and signed it.

There's actually aGoT scene that imo foreshadows how Rickon will be an absent Stark child character in whose name WF be reconquered. It's the scene where Tyrion ends up being threatened by the direwolves during his visit of WF coming back from the Wall. Shaggydog especially chases of Tyrion, and thus Lannister influence out of WF. But it is noticeable in this scene (and aCoK scene too) that Rickon doesn't cross the treshhold of the doorway of the hall.

I didn't consider LS learning about Rickon until reading this thread. Initially, I thought no, but then when I checked up the order of the chapters and recognize the repeated mentions and involvement of Glovers, I cannot conclude that it's "impossible" for LS to have learned of it.

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