Jump to content

Do we think George passed 1500 manuscript pages?


Quaithe from Asshai

Recommended Posts

On 12/2/2019 at 7:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

George's manuscript pages - which seem to be the standard for the publishers he is writing about and possibly also the standard in the business in the US - mean 1,500 pages more or less translate into 1,000 book pages and that is apparently the magical barrier where publishers do not want a larger book if it can helped. Of course, it wouldn't be that problematic to publish a book with 1,3000 or even 1,500 pages if you really wanted to, not to mention one can use a smaller font, thinner pages and the like - but that is apparently all stuff publishers do not like to do.

That I don't see for a moment. If they have enough material for a full 1,000 pages book they will publish that. In fact, they would even publish a 800-900 pages book if that book had some sort of ending and was polished enough.

The idea that George is going to get around the 'I only want to write two more books' by writing two books and calling them 'The Winds of Winter Vol. 1 & 2' isn't particularly likely. In fact, if that turns out to be the case then we will likely get a AFfC/ADwD scenario and one of the books will be TWoW while the other one will get a different title.

See above.

I don't think such relatively minor aspects like Barristan should pose that much of a problem - although that might have been a problem, too (one that hopefully has been resolved by now). I'm pretty sure George has no clue how exactly this huge cast of characters is going to fit best together when characters and plots are finally going to converge again. Which sequence of events is going to provide the best buildup and setup for the coming Dance of the Dragons and which road he should not take to write himself into a corner or even a dead end he has to then stick with it if this setup is actually published.

I also don't think that George has a very good or complete picture of what happens along the way. That's not how he writes. He is surprised by his own story to no small degree - and he wants to be surprised.

We all make pretty interesting for potential overall conflict in TWoW - but thinking about that is completely different from going with one version, writing it and making it best possible version. Even more so with the restrictions of the limited POV system. KL is going to be very dull in the foreseeable future with Cersei as only POV there who is no longer a part of the circle of people who make political decisions. If Aeron dies/escapes from Euron we won't have a character telling his story.

But I'm pretty sure George definitely had no complete picture of what exactly TWoW would contain when he finished ADwD. He has plans for the ending and for many big conflict he has set up since the very beginning, but he doesn't necessarily how he can get there nor whether the breadth the story has reached now will allow him to realize this plot the way he intended, say, 20 years ago or so. The Red Wedding still killed Robb and Catelyn but not exactly the way he originally imagined this - before he had invented the Freys and Boltons.

To make it any way feel 'a complete book' doing justice to all the characters we do need to get a decent picture at all the POV characters, especially those we saw the last time in 2005 (Samwell & Sansa).

One can imagine there being continuous war and conflict in Slaver's Bay since the Volantenes are also coming and the victors might then decide to destroy Yunkai and New Ghis and the other cities in the vicinity which allied with the Yunkai'i. That certainly could keep that plot going.

But I've literally no idea how tension could be kept up in the North whether the political situation is resolved there (i.e. one faction has destroyed the other). There is Hardhome and the Weeper to be dealt with - and I think the latter will destroy the Shadow Tower and lead thousands of wildings into the North to raid and plunder - but both Bran's and Jon's personal stories are very likely to slow down and not increase the speed in which the plot continues.

How exactly certain crucial characters and plots reenter the main story (i.e. Sansa/the Vale, Rickon/Skagos, Arya/Braavos, Samwell/Oldtown, Jaime/Brienne, etc.) is, at this point, completely unclear.

Even ideas what to do with Cersei after Aegon takes KL - I think she will run away to team up with Euron - which look pretty fast on paper could easily eat up all her POVs in the book. If she plans to return to Casterly Rock by ship in TWoW she might not even get there (after all, Sam barely made it to Oldtown in a single book)

I doubt they would allow him to get away with this. It is nearly ten years now, and once they have enough chapters to fill a book they would and should publish them.

Thematically, ADwD also had literally nothing to do with a Dance of the Dragons (the weirdo nod of Quentyn dancing with them definitely was not what the book was originally supposed to be about) so chances are that the only winds of winter we are going to get in TWoW will be literal winter winds and the effects mundane (although the cruelest in living and dead memory) winter will have on the war-torn Seven Kingdoms and the lands beyond the Wall (the latter also plus ice zombies).

If the Wall were to fall at the end of TWoW we would likely get as botched an ending for ASoIaF as we got for GoT - because events would be massively out of synch and there would be no way to salvage the finale. Daenerys is not going to get to Westeros in just one book.

I can't imagine there is anything the publishers can do even if George has 3000 manuscript pages of TWOW material in publishable form. What incentive does George have to hand over material for publication against his own will? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Did GRRM ever give a detailed answer or blog post explaining why he abandoned the 5 year gap? I suppose Book 4 would have started off slow as each character remembered what had happened the past 5 years. But the result has been a weird mix of 5 year gap content and GRRM trying to find a way to still advance the plot.

We don't seem to even be at the end of Arya's 5 year gap yet. You'd assume he intended for her training to be done when we rejoined her after the 5 year gap. What does he plan for her to do afterwards? 

Dany in Meereen seems to be a mix of her 5 year gap of ruling Meereen and what I assume is her post gap content of everyone arriving and then she flies off on Drogon etc.

Jon I'd guess would have been Lord Commander for the 5 year gap? I think almost all of Jon's ADWD chapters were post 5 year gap content. 

What we have is a story where the POV characters are out of sinc with eachother. Some parts of the story aren't even out of the 5 year gap yet. Dany has a TON of stuff left to do unless she never heads for Westeros. 

George, have all these problems and much more been worth not spending half of Book 4 with your characters thinking back on what happened during the 5 year gap as we are introduced to what they are doing post 5 year gap? You could have hit the ground running afterwards and finished all 9 books by now. What was it about the 5 year gap that was so bad that you T-boned your story to avoid it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Did GRRM ever give a detailed answer or blog post explaining why he abandoned the 5 year gap? I suppose Book 4 would have started off slow as each character remembered what had happened the past 5 years. But the result has been a weird mix of 5 year gap content and GRRM trying to find a way to still advance the plot.

There were some hints but no detailed explanation that I'm aware of. Curiously enough, the main reason seems to have been the plot revolving around the Wall and the Others not the political stuff.

4 minutes ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

We don't seem to even be at the end of Arya's 5 year gap yet. You'd assume he intended for her training to be done when we rejoined her after the 5 year gap. What does he plan for her to do afterwards? 

The 'Mercy' chapter was supposed to be the first Arya chapter after the gap. It goes back a very long time.

4 minutes ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Dany in Meereen seems to be a mix of her 5 year gap of ruling Meereen and what I assume is her post gap content of everyone arriving and then she flies off on Drogon etc.

No idea how Dany's Meereen story would have gone with the gap in place. It seems her story was written completely anew after he scrapped the gap.

4 minutes ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Jon I'd guess would have been Lord Commander for the 5 year gap? I think almost all of Jon's ADWD chapters were post 5 year gap content. 

We have no idea how the gap would have dealt with the Northern story of Jon and Stannis. Jon would have still been Lord Commander, but would Stannis have still been around? Would the Lannisters and Boltons have allowed him to sit up there for five years doing nothing to bring him down? We have no idea.

4 minutes ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

What we have is a story where the POV characters are out of sinc with eachother. Some parts of the story aren't even out of the 5 year gap yet. Dany has a TON of stuff left to do unless she never heads for Westeros.

Dany would have been still in Meereen eventually deciding to leave after the gap. I doubt it would have worked to get her plot on the move immediately after the book started. Also, no clue how the hell George would have dealt with the Aegon and Tyrion plots. Would they have been with Dany? Would they have not gone to her for five years for some reason?

4 minutes ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

George, have all these problems and much more been worth not spending half of Book 4 with your characters thinking back on what happened during the 5 year gap as we are introduced to what they are doing post 5 year gap? You could have hit the ground running afterwards and finished all 9 books by now. What was it about the 5 year gap that was so bad that you T-boned your story to avoid it?

See above. Mainly the Wall/North plot was a problem. We know that Cersei would have gone through a couple of Hands as he revealed somewhere, but little more than that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

What was it about the 5 year gap that was so bad that you T-boned your story to avoid it? 

The main problem would be that there would be several plotlines where the 5-year gap would boil down to "Man, remember all that scary stuff that went on five years ago? Glad we haven't seen any more of that happening in the past few years!" There would have been complete stalemates in a couple of wars, characters with urgent plans in motion who'd have to postpone them for an unusually long time, and the Others who seemed poised to take the Wall by next Tuesday would suddenly have to have decided to lay low for several years. Or a bunch of really interesting stuff would happen off-screen and just receive a quick summary at the start of the next book, which kind of undermines the point of skipping ahead five years.

The five-year gap seemed like a good idea for some plot lines, but many others would not seem realistic with a sudden freeze in all activities for several years. If I recally correctly, Martin never fully committed to the gap, it was an idea that occurred a good way into the writing process, and which was discarded pretty quickly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I once delved into the work to identify which things we have seen in AFfC/ADwD (and even possibly in TWoW) were supposed to take place during the abandoned 5 year gap and which things were the stuff of post-gap to see whetherit is possible to draw a line.

A brief history

  • GRRM started writing AGoT as the first volume of a trilogy with each volume covering an Act.
  • When the manuscript hit the permissible page limit, he saw that he was no way near finishing Act 1. As a result, he cut several hundred pages from the manuscript, edited the ending and published it as the AGoT we have today.
  • He announced that there would be another volume called ACoK, which would include the several hundred pages cut from the first volume and conclude Act 1.
  • He started writing ACoK and soon realized that the same thing was happening again. Even ACoK was not going to be sufficient to conclude Act 1.
  • He stopped all the writing (somewhere around 1997-1998) and made a detailed outline for the rest of the story. This outline was never made public but we can tell that the series expanded from 4 books to 6 books at this stage.
  • It is right at this moment GRRM came up with the 5 year gap, taking place after the third volume. The fourth volume named as ADwD was going to start 5 years after ASoS and it would feature Act 2.
  • GRRM wrote and published ASoS according to this plan.
  • When he started writing ADwD (around 2000-2001) as the fourth volume taking place after the 5 year gap, he ran into many problems. He struggled with it and wrote several hundred pages but in the end (year 2001), he announced that he scrapped the 5 year gap. He also said that he would have scrapped the gap sooner had he not told many fans about the gap in forums and cons. He created another volume he named as AFfC taking place in between ASoS and ADwD. This AFfC was supposed to cover all the POVs and GRRM at the beginning mentioned that he wished to pass some 4-5 years of story time during AFfC to compensate for the scrapped 5 year gap.
  • The original several hundred pages of story he wrote for ADwD before the gap was scrapped naturally included some events taking place after the 5 year gap but they were also quite heavy with flashbacks and recollections to the stuff happened during the 5 year gap. As a matter of fact, these flashbacks were so abundant that GRRM thought that it would not work and that was one of the reasons why he scrapped the 5 year gap. GRRM dismantled these pages but he recycled lots of stuff from them to the later writings he did.
  • We know that the characters that were supposed to do their “training montage” during the 5 year gap were not going to have much story from this period. Bran, Arya, and Sansa (even Jon and Dany to a certain extent) were not supposed to see much action during the 5 year gap. The whole idea behind the 5 year gap was to pass the time so that the young kids (including the dragons) can "level-up" and grow and also to introduce new locations (Dorne and Iron Islands) to the story.

Arya and Sansa

We know that GRRM wrote the Mercy chapter during 2000-2001 as Arya’s first chapter taking place after the 5 year gap in ADwD, which was the fourth volume as we mentioned above. Therefore, we can say that anything before Mercy should be the stuff that was supposed to take place during the 5 year gap.

Sansa is very similar to Arya. The TWoW Alayne chapter was written very early and GRRM kept pushing it to next volumes. Remember that these characters were supposed to have the boring stage of learning during the 5 year gap. Only after the gap, things were supposed to start happening. Both Mercy and Alayne chapters were pushed back to eventually TWoW for the reason that they were deemed as introductory chapters, not concluding ones. Therefore, we can say that both Arya and Sansa are done with their 5 year gap stuff in AFfC/ADwD; and their proper story should start in TWoW.

Bran

We know that GRRM had not written a single word about Bran during 2000-2005. His chapters in ADwD are only travelogue and training montage. Therefore, Bran is barely finished (if at all) with his 5 year gap stuff.

Others

The line gets blurred for the other characters like Jon, Dany, Davos, Stannis, Cersei, Jaime, Brienne, Sam etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

fArya

In ASoS, fArya was given to the Boltons (Walton Steelshanks at King’s Landing) and GRRM was planning to throw a 5 year gap at this point.

Recall that Moat Cailin was still held by the strong garrison of ironborn led by Victarion. Then we heard that Balon died, Euron returned and sat himself on the Seastone Chair. Robb was thinking that Victarion would return to Pyke to challenge Euron. Robb said “Every captain a king on his own deck. They will all want a voice in the succession.” It seems clear that there was no notion of kingsmoot at this point in ASoS. Would we have an ironborn civil war during the 5 year gap? Regardless, Moat Cailin would have had a weaker garrison at the end of AsoS and the beginning of the 5 year gap. But perhaps if Euron won the civil war quick enough, he might have sent reinforcements to Moat Cailin to prevent Roose Bolton passing north.

In the published version, Ramsay got rid of the garrison at Moat Cailin rather easily. fArya’s marriage to Ramsay followed soon after. If there was a 5 year gap, was Roose going to be cut off from the north for 5 years by the weak garrison at Moat Cailin? I don’t think so. Then, what was on GRRM’s mind? When was fArya’s wedding to Ramsay going to happen? During the 5 year gap or after? What was going to be the reaction of Jon, Stannis and the Northern Lords? Where was Rickon in all this?

Lady Stoneheart

During the 5 year gap Lady Stoneheart was going to lead an insurgency in Riverlands while Brienne was wasting her time after dead ends. What about the cliffhanger with Jaime? Was this still supposed to happen after a 5 year gap? Would Brienne somehow return to Jaime after 5 years to convince him to come with her? Or did this cliffhanger happen after the gap was scrapped simply because GRRM needed to send Jaime away from King’s Landing so that Cersei can ruin everything?

It is also worth keeping in mind that while writing ASoS, GRRM was not planning to create additional POVs like Cersei or Brienne. They came after the 5 year gap was scrapped. As a result, the POV at King’s Landing was going to be Jaime, at least until he gets back on the field to deal with the insurgency.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TL DR: Quaithe’s prophecy vision warning to Dany at the beginning of ADwD (“Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others …”) was meant to be a perfectly symmetric prophecy which would be very simple to figure out in hindsight. But the ever changing plans concerning the Meereenese Knot broke the symmetry and spoiled the prophetic aspect.

Intro

At the beginning, GRRM thoroughly envisioned Act 1 and the endgame; however, the link between them (i.e. Act 2 and Act 3) was mostly up in the air except the barest bones. While Act 1 was expanding in a “relatively” controlled manner, Acts 2 and 3 went out of the roof because of lack of foreplanning.

This and the ever changing plans put GRRM in a tense spot because starting very early in the series, he made heavy foreshadowing of some future events (like the House of the Undying in ACoK). Before moving onto Quaithe, it might be a good idea to remember GRRM’s future plans for the series when he wrote the HotU sequence.

What was the plan when ACoK was released with the HotU Sequence?

We know that while writing ACoK (i.e. late 1997-1998), GRRM made the 6-Book-Plan, which was scrapped in 2001 along with the 5 year gap. The 6-Book-Plan was something like this:

  1. A Game of Thrones (Act 1a)
  2. A Clash of Kings (Act 1b)
  3. A Storm of Swords (Act 1c)
  4. A Dance with Dragons (Act 2, starting after the 5 year gap)
  5. The Winds of Winter (Act 3)
  6. A Time for Wolves (the endgame)

In the above outline, the first three volumes are Act 1; A Time for Wolves is the endgame, featuring the resolution of the hanging threads; ADwD (Act 2) and TWoW (Act 3) are the link between Act 1 and the endgame. When GRRM wrote the HotU prophecies in ACoK, he was planning to throw a 5 year gap after the yet unpublished ASoS. The Meereenese Knot was nowhere to be seen yet. I will refer to ADwD (Act 2) and TWoW (Act 3) in this context as simply the Link. As you can see, the Link went through significant changes along the way. 5 year gap was dropped, another extra book was created but two books still could not cover what ADwD was supposed to cover back when this plan was made. The Link is still very much incomplete, even if a very fast paced and tight packed TWoW comes.

The House of the Undying prophecies came very early in the series and they were meant to foreshadow (albeit cryptically) some important plot points from all over the series. There we have some Act 1 events and endgame events alluded to; but certain HotU visions and prophecies seem to refer to some intermediary events that will take place during the Link.

Determining GRRM’s future plans when he wrote the HotU sequence in ACoK is important in figuring out whether there are some events GRRM planned when he wrote the HotU visions but dropped in the later stages. That being said, even if the original event pointed by a HotU vision was dropped later, I believe GRRM would still try to come up with a new event that can be foreshadowed by the same vision while making sense with the HotU pattern and also being recognizable to the readers in hindsight. I can’t imagine GRRM replying a fan’s question by saying “This particular HotU vision was supposed to foreshadow an event that I scrapped because of gardening and all that. Now, this vision does not foreshadow anything.”

Quaithe’s Primary Function
Quote

“To go north, you must journey south. To reach the west, you must go east. To go forward you must go back, and to touch the light you must pass beneath the shadow.”

 

I think all of Quaithe’s cryptic words are first and foremost meant to advertise/foreshadow what is to come in Dany’s story. I have the following explanation for the quote above:

  1. “To go north, you must journey south” means Dany will first go South (to make a civil war i.e. the Dance of Dragons) before she goes North (to deal with the Others).
  2. “To reach the west, you must go east” means Dany went east and spend several books in Meereen before coming to Westeros.
  3. “To go forward you must go back” means Dany will return to Vaes Dothrak to gather a Dothraki army so that she can move forward.
  4. “To touch the light you must pass beneath the shadow” is too cryptic to decipher but my guess is that it foreshadows Dany’s death such that she can find peace and happiness only in the afterlife. There is no returning to the house with the red door for her. This must be one of the bitter parts of the endgame.
Quaithe and the Meereenese Knot

 

Quote

 

A Dance with Dragons - Daenerys II

...

“The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal.”

 

 

Quaithe’s next warning to Dany, which is the main subject of this post, is basically the Meereenese Knot in a nutshell. GRRM wanted to foreshadow all the people coming to Dany by Quaithe’s cryptic description, which is what the Meereenese Knot was all about. Recall that GRRM had to figure out the timing and the manner of all these arrivals to Meereen in accordance with the local developments. Below is the most widely accepted interpretation for the quote above:

  1. Kraken is Victarion
  2. Dark flame is Moqorro
  3. Lion is Tyrion
  4. Griffin is JonCon
  5. Sun's son is Quentyn
  6. Mummer's dragon is Young Griff

This interpretation is most likely true but something about it seems crude and off. This prophecy starts as a typical prophecy, announcing the pale mare (i.e. the bloody flux) coming to Meereen in the near future, followed by a host of characters. But neither the Griffin nor the Mummer's dragon came to Dany. As a result, this prophecy ended up being only a warning instead of a prophetic foreshadowing. It was only valid for a short period of time while these characters were coming to Dany. This I think is a very strong indicator that something was broken and scrapped off which unmade this prophecy.

I propose that Quaithe’s warning (hence the Meereenese Knot) was perfectly symmetric and meant to be true at the beginning. That means all the people mentioned by Quaithe were supposed to come to Dany. Moreover, the people grouped together by Quaithe were also supposed come together. The increasing complexity of the Meereenese Knot forced GRRM to change his plans and break the symmetry.

The Change in Quaithe’s Warning

After scrapping the 5 year gap and announcing a new book called AFfC, GRRM planned to start this fourth book with an ever growing Prologue consisting of temporary POV characters from Dorne and Iron Islands. These temporary POV characters would either die in the Mega-Prologue or come close enough to regular POVs so that the story could keep being told seamlessly. At this point, the Meereenese Knot should be very simple and GRRM should hardly need or envision any travelogue chapters to synch the Meereenese Knot.

Quote

“The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare. After her will come the others. Crow and kraken, lion and griffin, the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon. Remember the undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal.”

 

There is a report of a reading of Dany II in 2005, which was an early draft and the most important change compared to the published version was that it was “crow and kraken” instead of “kraken and dark flame”.

Daenerys I-III were written at least as early as 2003 October, which we know thanks to this partial draft of AFfC. We also know that three Daenerys chapters from ADwD were released as a booklet in some convention before GRRM split AFfC and ADwD (which was in 2005); which is why the booklet said the Dany chapters belonged to AFfC. So far we only had reports from the early versions of these Dany chapters. And sadly, no one has ever gone to the Cushing Library to compare these early drafts with the published versions. It is right there in Box 108, waiting to be discovered.

GRRM said that Dany had the most chapters in the unsplit AFfC and ADwD, which should be greater than Cersei’s 10 in AFfC. Later GRRM also said that when he started working on ADwD after promoting AFfC for a year, he had Dany’s chapters/arc more or less as we have now. This makes sense because Quaithe’s warning which foreshadows the Meereenese Knot is indeed more or less as we have now, except the “crow and kraken” instead of “kraken and dark flame”.

There are several explanations for the crow and the kraken. Especially considering the Forsaken, which was written at least as early as 2010, below seems like the most likely interpretation:

  1. Crow is Euron
  2. Kraken is Areon
  3. Lion is Tyrion
  4. Griffin is JonCon
  5. Sun's son is Quentyn
  6. Mummer's dragon is Young Griff
First Couple

Thanks to the Forsaken chapter, we have seen that Crow and Kraken are travelling together. Moreover, this scenery seems extremely suggestive of the vision “A corpse stood at the prow of a ship, eyes bright in his dead face, grey lips smiling sadly” from the bride of fire triplet which was cross-linked with the treason for gold prophecy.

I propose that according to the original plans, Euron and Aeron were coming to Dany, which was Euron’s first choice that he had to give up due to Rodrik Harlaw's meddling.

This symmetric pairing coming to Dany (and probably fulfilling the treason for gold prophecy while abiding the bride of fire theme – like an affair between Dany and Euron) was broken when GRRM decided to switch the roles of Victarion and Euron. He changed Quaithe’s warning and created Moqorro.

Second Couple

We know that JonCon was not supposed to be a POV originally and it became a necessity only after GRRM made a change which should leave JonCon without regular POV coverage. This change was most probably the decision to send Tyrion and JonCon to separate paths.

I propose that according to the original plans, JonCon and Tyrion were coming to Dany together.

Instead of Jorah (whose kidnapping of Tyrion was just another contrived coincidence arising from changing the plans), JonCon and Tyrion would find a ship bound to Meereen before the Volantene Fleet set sail. Obviously, there had to be a very good reason why JonCon would have left the Golden Company and Young Griff in this scheme, which is explained in the next case.

Third Couple

We know that Volantis was preparing to send its massive fleet against Dany and they were signing with most of the available mercenary companies. We know that a triarch tried to hire the Golden Company, at least in sacking the Red Temple.

I propose that according to the original plans, the Golden Company (along with fAegon and Quentyn) would go to the Meereen with the Volantene Fleet.

This explains why JonCon and Tyrion had to find a ship to reach Meereen before the Volantene Fleet and tell Dany that the Golden Company was going to betray the Volantene and declare for her. I think there was no Windblown at this point and Quentyn was supposed to infiltrate to the Golden Company. This makes the grouping symmetric like the rest, as the Sun's son and the Mummer's dragon were to be coming to Dany together.

During the Queenmaker plot, Arianne wrongly assumed that Quentyn, with the Golden Company behind him, would invade Dorne to remove Arianne. There might be a nugget of truth in this folly such that Quentyn would indeed be with the Golden Company; not as the prince leading them as Arianne imagined but as a Frog squiring for a mercenary as they went to Dany.

Perfumed Seneschal

There is also the matter of the perfumed seneschal. Some say that it is the ship on which Tyrion and Moqorro have been but they are already mentioned once. There is no need to refer to them again.

There is also Reznak. However, the context of the warning suggests that the perfumed seneschal is most probably a character coming to Meereen like the rest. Reznak lives in Meereen and he does not fit the pattern. He will most probably serve as a false lead to make Dany blind to the real one.

Of all the people we know coming to Meereen, Marwyn (chewing sourleaf etc.) makes the most sense to be the perfumed seneschal at this point of the story. That being said, GRRM avoided bringing him into the Meereen in ADwD, probably because it would be too early for whatver he is supposed to do once he is with Dany. I am guessing that he might join Dany just before or after she takes Volantis.

Some theories suggest that Varys is the perfumed seneschal. However, he won’t be coming to Dany in the near future to be counted as a part of the Meereenese Knot, which is what Quaithe’s warning was all about.

That being said, according to the original plans, I think Varys was probably supposed to be coming to Meereen with Tyrion and JonCon on the same ship. With or without a 5 year gap scenario, it does not make sense for Varys to stay behind to sabotage Cersei. He could still do that once he returned with Dany and fAegon.

JonCon has a visible mistrust of the Lyseni spymaster Lysono Maar. Maybe originally, the Lyseni spymaster mistrusted by JonCon was going to be Varys instead of a later creation like Lysono Maar. After all, JonCon thinks that the boy is genuine Aegon Targaryen whereas Varys knows the truth and was probably bidding his time to get rid of Dany once she served her purpose in taking the Seven Kingdoms.

Conclusion

To wrap up, I am proposing that in the earliest versions of the Meereenese Knot:

  1. Crow and Kraken (later Kraken and Dark Flame) were supposed to come to Meereen together,
  2. Lion and Griffin were supposed to come to Meereen together,
  3. The Sun's son and the Mummer's dragon were supposed to come to Meereen together.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The North

The most problematic part of the 5 year gap was the Northern Theatre. It is still mostly unknown what Stannis or Jon was supposed to do off-screen for 5 years after ASoS if the gap was not scrapped off. The ironborn story is also partially related to the North. In this thread, I want to explore possible early conceptions and setups for the Northern Theatre while the 5 year gap was still in play, which means I will be referring to mostly ASoS stuff.

 

Quote

 

“I dreamt of a man without a face, waiting on a bridge that swayed and swung. On his shoulder perched a drowned crow with seaweed hanging from his wings.”

“You know how Pyke’s built on a headland, and part on rocks and islands off the shore, with bridges between? The way I heard it in Lordsport, there was a blow coming in from the west, rain and thunder, and old King Balon was crossing one of them bridges when the wind got hold of it and just tore the thing to pieces. He washed up two days later, all bloated and broken. Crabs ate his eyes, I hear.”

“The brother’s back.”

“Victarion?” asked Galbart Glover, surprised.

Euron. Crow’s Eye, they call him, as black a pirate as ever raised a sail. He’s been gone for years, but Lord Balon was no sooner cold than there he was, sailing into Lordsport in his Silence. Black sails and a red hull, and crewed by mutes. He’d been to Asshai and back, I heard. Wherever he was, though, he’s home now, and he marched right into Pyke and sat his arse in the Seastone Chair, and drowned Lord Botley in a cask of seawater when he objected. That was when I ran back to Myraham and slipped anchor, hoping I could get away whilst things were confused. And so I did, and here I am.”

 

 

In ASoS, Balon dies off-screen by falling from a bridge but adding all the above ASoS quotes side by side, most readers had already figured out that Euron hired a FM to kill Balon, which was eventually confirmed in the Forsaken chapter.

 

Quote

 

No sooner had he left the king’s pavilion than the Greatjon began to laugh, but Robb silenced him with a look. “Euron Greyjoy is no man’s notion of a king, if half of what Theon said of him was true. Theon is the rightful heir, unless he’s dead . . . but Victarion commands the Iron Fleet. I can’t believe he would remain at Moat Cailin while Euron Crow’s Eye holds the Seastone Chair. He has to go back.”

“There’s a daughter as well,” Galbart Glover reminded him. “The one who holds Deepwood Motte, and Robett’s wife and child.”

“If she stays at Deepwood Motte that’s all she can hope to hold,” said Robb. “What’s true for the brothers is even more true for her. She will need to sail home to oust Euron and press her own claim.”

“The ironborn will be setting sail toward Pyke, I expect. Theon told me how his people think. Every captain a king on his own deck. They will all want a voice in the succession.”

“Succession squabbles or no, the ironborn are not such fools as to abandon Moat Cailin,” said Lady Maege.

“No,” Robb admitted. “Victarion will leave the best part of his garrison, I’d guess. Every man he takes will be one less man we need to fight, however. And he will take many of his captains, count on that. The leaders. He will need such men to speak for him if he hopes to sit the Seastone Chair.”

“Whoever wins the Seastone Chair will want Theon Greyjoy dead,” Bolton pointed out. “Even in chains, he has a better claim than any of his uncles. Hold him, I say, and demand concessions from the ironborn as the price of his execution.”

Robb considered that reluctantly, but in the end he nodded. “Yes. Very well. Keep him alive, then. For the present. Hold him secure at the Dreadfort till we’ve retaken the north.”

 

 

The discussion in Robb’s council reveals some interesting tidbits. It seems clear that the notion of the kingsmoot had not formed fully back in ASoS. They were all expecting the ironmen to engage in a civil war for succession. At this point, we were going to have the 5 year gap. Does this mean that while writing this part of ASoS, GRRM planned to have ironmen civil war for 5 years during the gap, only to have Euron finally win while the story takes off after 5 years? I think this is a very likely idea. Also Theon was going to be tortured but kept alive for 5 years during the gap. In that case it would be more believable if the torture turned him into an old man that Asha could not recognize.

 

Quote

 

“Perhaps Littlefinger succeeded where you and Varys failed. Lord Bolton will wed the girl to his bastard son. We shall allow the Dreadfort to fight the ironborn for a few years, and see if he can bring Stark’s other bannermen to heel. Come spring, all of them should be at the end of their strength and ready to bend the knee. The north will go to your son by Sansa Stark . . . if you ever find enough manhood in you to breed one. Lest you forget, it is not only Joffrey who must needs take a maidenhead.”

“But . . . my lord, you said . . . you said we were sailing home.”

“And there it stands, miserable as it is. My ancestral home. It has no name, I fear. A great lord’s seat ought to have a name, wouldn’t you agree? Winterfell, the Eyrie, Riverrun, those are castles. Lord of Harrenhal now, that has a sweet ring to it, but what was I before? Lord of Sheepshit and Master of the Drearfort? It lacks a certain something.” His grey-green eyes regarded her innocently. “You look distraught. Did you think we were making for Winterfell, sweetling? Winterfell has been taken, burned, and sacked. All those you knew and loved are dead. What northmen who have not fallen to the ironmen are warring amongst themselves. Even the Wall is under attack. Winterfell was the home of your childhood, Sansa, but you are no longer a child. You’re a woman grown, and you need to make your own home.”

Stannis studied him with those dark blue eyes. “Tywin Lannister has named Roose Bolton his Warden of the North, to reward him for betraying your brother. The ironmen are fighting amongst themselves since Balon Greyjoy’s death, yet they still hold Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte, Torrhen’s Square, and most of the Stony Shore. Your father’s lands are bleeding, and I have neither the strength nor the time to stanch the wounds. What is needed is a Lord of Winterfell. A loyal Lord of Winterfell.”

“I killed a thousand wildlings, took another thousand captive, and scattered the rest, but we both know they will return. Melisandre has seen that in her fires. This Tormund Thunderfist is likely re-forming them even now, and planning some new assault. And the more we bleed each other, the weaker we shall all be when the real enemy falls upon us.”

Stannis crossed his arms. “I shall require a few other things from you as well. Things that you may not be so quick to give. I want your castles. And I want the Gift.”

“What will you do with the Gift?” demanded Cotter Pyke.

“Make better use of it than you have.”

“Your brothers will not like it, no more than your father’s lords, but I mean to allow the wildlings through the Wall . . . those who will swear me their fealty, pledge to keep the king’s peace and the king’s laws, and take the Lord of Light as their god. Even the giants, if those great knees of theirs can bend. I will settle them on the Gift, once I have wrested it away from your new Lord Commander.”

 

 

Littlefinger told Sansa that there was infighting among the northmen. That is very interesting because that did not happen after the 5 year gap was scrapped. But I think there was indeed going to be such a Northern civil war throughout the 5 year gap.

At one side, there would be Boltons and their Northern allies with the backing of the Iron Throne. At the other side, there was going to be Stark loyalists. During 5 years, Stannis would surely settle some wildlings to the Gift and that would alienate a lot of Northern Lords whether they are Stark loyalist or Bolton loyalist. As Tywin imagined, Boltons would be playing to win the support of the Stark bannermen by fighting off the ironmen invaders.

Meanwhile, the ironborn invasion of the North would dwindle slowly but surely due to Stannis and Boltons taking ground throughout the 5 year gap. The armed conflict would eventually reach a stalemate but as soon as the story started after the 5 year gap, things would happen and the status quo would come to an end.

Quote

So Jon Snow took the wineskin from his hand and had a swallow. But only one. The Wall was his, the night was dark, and he had a king to face.

 

At the Wall, Jon would juggle between helping Stannis and not taking sides. Meanwhile, Tormund and the rest of the wildlings would surely attack the Wall again or try to reach an agreement. Some would agree to be settled to the Gift under the terms of Stannis and help fight his wars. Also there is zero clue for the glamor mechanism, which was not established yet and still no clue that Stannis would spare Mance as long as he did not bend the knee.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mance

Why did Mance do the things he did in ADwD? In terms of personal motivation and characterization, I don’t see a natural, seamless progression from ASoS to ADwD for Mance. There seems to be a discontinuity. Without some further material and the expected payoff, I don’t think Mance’s survival is justified enough in the current books.

Originally, the main goal of Mance was to lead his people to the safety of the south of the Wall. At the same time, he was not willing to sacrifice their freedom in the land of the “kneelers”. That much he made it clear to Jon in their negotiation. But in ADwD, Mance seems to have let go this lifelong quest although a lot of his people are still in grave danger beyond the Wall. Moreover, his people who passed the Wall do not seem to have a bright future as well.

GRRM provides the reason why Mance is bothered to help them as

 

Quote

 

“I had my doubts as well, Snow, but why not let her try? It was that, or let Stannis roast me.”

“Our false king has a prickly manner,” Melisandre told Jon Snow, “but he will not betray you. We hold his son, remember. And he owes you his very life.”

 

 

However, the Mance I knew was no craven and no kneeler. He would not be intimidated by death, which leaves the survival of his son as his only motivation. But how can he trust Mel with his son’s life? Is he stupid enough to believe in Mel’s words and promises? This might be yet another clue for Stannis being actually involved in the glamor switch. If Stannis swore to protect Mance’s son for his obedience and services, Mance might have been inclined to agree. But then again, this meant Mance was foreswearing his lifelong mission of bringing his people to safety and preserving their freedom. Moreover, if Mance was going to kneel to Stannis like this, why did he not do that publicly and remove the necessity for glamor? Yet another discrepancy that needs to be addressed.

Naturally, discrepancies like this draw lots of tinfoil as a corpse draws crows. Most readers instinctively realize that there must be additional material for all this to make sense. As a result, I think the TWoW twist GRRM came up with might be related to Mance in an attempt to provide him a more natural and organic motivation. Hopefully we will see if this is the case and how much he will succeed in justifying the survival of Mance.

Finally, I want to talk about where this Mance problem comes from. I think before the 5 year gap was scrapped, Mance was destined to a far different route that was in line with his prior characterization. When that plan was scrapped, Mance became aimless. Below is my general sketch of the original plans for Mance:

  1. fArya is introduced in ASoS and she is destined to Dreadfort.
  2. Mance is secretly spared by Stannis/Mel just the same.
  3. Mance is given the mission to raid Dreadfort and kidnap fArya from there. Asha is also involved in this mission. Mance kidnaps fArya and Theon from Dreadfort. But he does not return to Stannis. He betrays him and kills Asha.
  4. Mance flees to Hardhome to rally his people once again. This time, fArya is Mance’s greatest leverage for the safety of his son and the terms he would require from Stannis/Northmen.
  5. fArya as Mance’s hostage fits well with the original 1993 outline idea of Catelyn and her children falling into the hands of Mance Rayder. Then Hardhome is attacked and Mance somehow flees to Braavos with fArya and the other survivors. The Lyseni slaver ship that took women and children from Hardhome and ended up in Braavos might be a remnant of this plan.
  6. In Braavos, instead of Dareon (who would have stayed at the Wall with Sam throughout the 5 year gap), Arya kills Mance and gets blinded for it. You should notice the similarity with Arya killing an oathbreaker crow who happens to be a very good singer and getting blinded for it. I think Dareon inherited this role from Mance.
  7. fArya dedicates herself to the House of Black & White in return for revenge and Arya switches places with her. This way, you should notice the similarity with the origin story of the Waif.
  8. I think Justin Massey will eventually take fArya to Braavos and the merger of fArya and Arya will still take place. I think Justin Massey inherited this role from Mance and Arya will kill him too. There is very clear setup for Justin Massey betraying Stannis for fAegon or Dany and trying to claim fArya for himself. That should be the moment where Arya kills him.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't thing scrapping the 5-year gap was a mistake per se. However GRRM couldn't predict that 20 years later he would still be struggling to put the next books together (though this is not necessarily the result of the omission of the 5-year gap, but that did bring up other problems).

 

Edit: And if I may be a bit controversial :P hasn't GRRM been having ''problems'' with this series since the very beginning? Many readers' complaints about Feast and Dance are related to the fact he expanded the story too much - but wasn't that the case with the first 3 books? AGOT was supposed to be one book but he stretched it - and well - into 3. That meant more characters, more plotlines, more locations, etc. So he's always struggled with that. Though then you have the new characters, plotlines, and locations of Feast/Dance so I can see why he's struggling so much.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/2/2019 at 7:04 PM, Lord Varys said:

can only speculate but I guess George wasn't exactly happy with the AFfC mess. That book lacked the other half and it lacked a proper ending (Cersei/Jaime/Brienne work much better with the ADwD chapters attached to the story)

I think that it should have concluded with the Battle of Oldtown - however, I think thematically it will work better in Winds. I think Euron is going to be the new Night’s King and is going to knock down the Wall with the Horn - thus the Wall falling may happen early on in winds.

but the issue I think is a lot of rewriting. I tend to think that a) he got discouraged over a choice he made (aside from his admitted realization he killed somebody that he needed, I think he regrets Tyrion and Dany not having met in Dance) and b) I think he wrote himself into a corner (or two) elsewhere that caused major structural and plot revisions to correct. 
 

Do I think he hit those manuscript pages? Absolutely. But how many chapters have we lost? I bet an equal

amount

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Mithras said:

Mance

Why did Mance do the things he did in ADwD? In terms of personal motivation and characterization, I don’t see a natural, seamless progression from ASoS to ADwD for Mance. There seems to be a discontinuity. Without some further material and the expected payoff, I don’t think Mance’s survival is justified enough in the current books.

Originally, the main goal of Mance was to lead his people to the safety of the south of the Wall. At the same time, he was not willing to sacrifice their freedom in the land of the “kneelers”. That much he made it clear to Jon in their negotiation. But in ADwD, Mance seems to have let go this lifelong quest although a lot of his people are still in grave danger beyond the Wall. Moreover, his people who passed the Wall do not seem to have a bright future as well.

GRRM provides the reason why Mance is bothered to help them as

 

 

However, the Mance I knew was no craven and no kneeler. He would not be intimidated by death, which leaves the survival of his son as his only motivation. But how can he trust Mel with his son’s life? Is he stupid enough to believe in Mel’s words and promises? This might be yet another clue for Stannis being actually involved in the glamor switch. If Stannis swore to protect Mance’s son for his obedience and services, Mance might have been inclined to agree. But then again, this meant Mance was foreswearing his lifelong mission of bringing his people to safety and preserving their freedom. Moreover, if Mance was going to kneel to Stannis like this, why did he not do that publicly and remove the necessity for glamor? Yet another discrepancy that needs to be addressed.

Naturally, discrepancies like this draw lots of tinfoil as a corpse draws crows. Most readers instinctively realize that there must be additional material for all this to make sense. As a result, I think the TWoW twist GRRM came up with might be related to Mance in an attempt to provide him a more natural and organic motivation. Hopefully we will see if this is the case and how much he will succeed in justifying the survival of Mance.

Finally, I want to talk about where this Mance problem comes from. I think before the 5 year gap was scrapped, Mance was destined to a far different route that was in line with his prior characterization. When that plan was scrapped, Mance became aimless. Below is my general sketch of the original plans for Mance:

  1. fArya is introduced in ASoS and she is destined to Dreadfort.
  2. Mance is secretly spared by Stannis/Mel just the same.
  3. Mance is given the mission to raid Dreadfort and kidnap fArya from there. Asha is also involved in this mission. Mance kidnaps fArya and Theon from Dreadfort. But he does not return to Stannis. He betrays him and kills Asha.
  4. Mance flees to Hardhome to rally his people once again. This time, fArya is Mance’s greatest leverage for the safety of his son and the terms he would require from Stannis/Northmen.
  5. fArya as Mance’s hostage fits well with the original 1993 outline idea of Catelyn and her children falling into the hands of Mance Rayder. Then Hardhome is attacked and Mance somehow flees to Braavos with fArya and the other survivors. The Lyseni slaver ship that took women and children from Hardhome and ended up in Braavos might be a remnant of this plan.
  6. In Braavos, instead of Dareon (who would have stayed at the Wall with Sam throughout the 5 year gap), Arya kills Mance and gets blinded for it. You should notice the similarity with Arya killing an oathbreaker crow who happens to be a very good singer and getting blinded for it. I think Dareon inherited this role from Mance.
  7. fArya dedicates herself to the House of Black & White in return for revenge and Arya switches places with her. This way, you should notice the similarity with the origin story of the Waif.
  8. I think Justin Massey will eventually take fArya to Braavos and the merger of fArya and Arya will still take place. I think Justin Massey inherited this role from Mance and Arya will kill him too. There is very clear setup for Justin Massey betraying Stannis for fAegon or Dany and trying to claim fArya for himself. That should be the moment where Arya kills him.

I really like your thinking overall. However, I know I read somewhere that another huge issue was Dorne - he couldn’t justify a five year gap in response from Dorne after killing Oberyn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I am unfamiliar with this - please explain?

You recall the Shrouded Lord from the Rhoyne? The lord of the stone men the gang talks about? There was supposed to be a chapter - presumably after Tyrion's is drawn into the river - where he meets with the Shrouded Lord before he is reunited with the gang. George had enormous trouble with that chapter, and changed it from a real meeting to a meeting taking place in a dream - and then he excised that chapter from the book. There are remnants and references to that dream in the novel since Tyrion recalls meeting the Shrouded Lord in his dream when he awakes after Connington has saved him.

4 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I think that it should have concluded with the Battle of Oldtown - however, I think thematically it will work better in Winds. I think Euron is going to be the new Night’s King and is going to knock down the Wall with the Horn - thus the Wall falling may happen early on in winds.

That is not very likely. Euron no longer has a horn, and a horn blown at/near Oldtown wouldn't have any effect on the Wall. The Horn of Winter has been blown before after the Wall has been built and it didn't crumble then. You have to use the horn close to the Wall so that the spell can affect the place there - it is creating an earthquake, after all.

4 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

but the issue I think is a lot of rewriting. I tend to think that a) he got discouraged over a choice he made (aside from his admitted realization he killed somebody that he needed, I think he regrets Tyrion and Dany not having met in Dance) and b) I think he wrote himself into a corner (or two) elsewhere that caused major structural and plot revisions to correct. 

I doubt that the Dany-Tyrion thing is an issue. He had a long time to figure out the timeline for ADwD. And he tried many different scenarios back then.

TWoW would have many other chronology problems. Things in the east might be pretty straightforward - they would intersect with the west, anyway. But how quickly should the Westerosi plots advance in comparison to the Wall plot? How dangerous can the Others be while Dany is still nowhere near Westeros? Those are the main plot threads in the story, and there go ripple effects down from those to all the characters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

You recall the Shrouded Lord from the Rhoyne? The lord of the stone men the gang talks about? There

Yes, I recall him, but did not know about this fantom chapter. Thank you for this! Has there been any mention about what this was suppose to achieve/accomplish/introduce?

 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is not very likely

Let me elaborate. Something is going on at the Hightower. Lord Leyton and the Mad Maid have been up there for ten years and there is a passing reference to being able to see the Wall from the top of the Tower. I believe that the  Hightower is magically connected (perhaps like a battery?) to the Wall. I think Euron and Sam will cross paths and Euron will end up with the horn. Blowing the horn, in conjunction with damaging/destroying the Hightower, I believe, will cause it to fall.

 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He had a long time to figure out the timeline for ADwD

That doesn’t mean that he doesn’t regret choices that he made and given the lapse since the last book, I like regrets are highly likely. But I concede that I have no factual evidence for my theory that it is Tyrion and Dany, just a gut feeling.

 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Those are the main plot threads in the story, and there go ripple effects down from those to all the characters.

I thought a few years ago and recently saw it referenced here about Hardhome and the Lyseni slavers. If they come into Slavers Bay, that would introduce Dany to the threat. 

the biggest hindrance to what you are speaking of, however, is the second Dance that is going to happen between Dany and Dorne. I think it will be a fantastic character arc when complete but I think it is the biggest time sink in regards to getting Dany and the other plot lines to converge 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dany seems to have at least 3 books of material left depending on who I talk to. Not saying what I think but it seems to be theorized that she will go to Vaes Dothrak and unite the Dothraki under her. Then she will burn Volantis and deal with Meereen. GRRM would have to be extremely efficient with her TWOW to do all that in 1 book. Then she and her army have go get to Westeros. Possibly meaning we don't hear from her for awhile in Book 7 so she can travel off screen while we read other POVs. Then she has to deal with Aegon and Dorne and King's Landing and maybe Cersei. All before she can finally turn her focus to the Others (whose invasion is held off til the end of Book 7 or somewhere in Book 8?). Then that plot has to play out. Then what? We get Dany's Westerosi Tax Policy?

Something has to give unless GRRM is going to 9 books. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/5/2020 at 10:11 PM, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Dany seems to have at least 3 books of material left depending on who I talk to. Not saying what I think but it seems to be theorized that she will go to Vaes Dothrak and unite the Dothraki under her. Then she will burn Volantis and deal with Meereen. GRRM would have to be extremely efficient with her TWOW to do all that in 1 book. Then she and her army have go get to Westeros. Possibly meaning we don't hear from her for awhile in Book 7 so she can travel off screen while we read other POVs. Then she has to deal with Aegon and Dorne and King's Landing and maybe Cersei. All before she can finally turn her focus to the Others (whose invasion is held off til the end of Book 7 or somewhere in Book 8?). Then that plot has to play out. Then what? We get Dany's Westerosi Tax Policy?

Something has to give unless GRRM is going to 9 books. 

To be fair, I think he can condense some story lines by having Dorne and fAegon form the alliance foreshadowed in TWOW Arianne chapters. Once those POVs are together, fAegon and Co can take on Cercei and the Tyrells. And hypothetically, the mess in King's Landing will all be resolved (POVs whittled down) before Daeny even gets to Westeros thus setting up a dance of dragons 2.0. I think George is going to be fairly efficient with Daeny once she consolidates rule of the Dothraki. I expect the battle of fire to be mostly resolved by the time she returns to Mereen. Mayhaps she likely will turn the tide of that battle near the end, and afterwards then decides to take her new army west (finally).  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It isn't the first time I've had the thought, but all that info Mithras posted makes me question if an author could have a 5 or 10 year gap in their own epic medieval fantasy and actually make it work. In 3rd person pov. It seems like it would be extremely difficult to pull off. Even if it's planned from the start.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...