Do we think George passed 1500 manuscript pages?

[The Winged Griffin]

On 7/17/2021 at 11:36 PM, Kyll.Ing. said:

Just for the record, I think today marks the tenth anniversary of A Dance With Dragons. Well, Wikipedia and the ASoIaF Wiki disagree on whether it was published on the 12th or 17th of July, 2011. At any rate, we've been waiting for Winds for a full decade now, minus the time it took to read ADWD back in 2011. 

Anyway, I wonder if we'll get another update? It's been a while since the last one, and no indications of anything on the books, but the decennium of the release of the previous book seems as good an occasion as any to come with news. It's still early in the day at GRRM's place, so I'd wait a few more hours for it, at least.

He did say this in his last blog post, so I guess that counts for something... 

Quote

That’s all for now.   The woods were lovely, dark and deep, but I have promises to keep, and books to write before I sleep.

 

[Maia]

On 5/20/2020 at 3:13 AM, Lord Varys said:

He seems to lack the ability to reach people directly or possess them like Bran does with Hodor, but if Bran were to be able to do such things he would effectively be a living god. If he could talk through the trees he would be seen as a god, and that's the crucial part in all that.

I have always thought that Bran would remain in the background and steer the events to some extent  through the trees, animals and dreams. Perhaps even Hodor. Oh, and that he might eventually be able to wrest  control over the groups of  wights from the Others. The advantage of such a role would have also been that GRRM wouldn't have needed to introduce so many "window" PoVs or send established characters in contrived ways to places where something needed to be observed. Bran could just do it through a raven or whatever.

However, this didn't seem to be GRRM's plan even as late as when he finished ADwD, as evidenced by the mummer's tale and King Bran being one of the 3 "holy shit!" Martin's revelations to them. Which honestly boggles my mind. He thankfully gave up on a lot of bad ideas in his initial outline for ASoIaF by that point, but the "what if it isn't an Arthur equivalent who gets the crown in the end, but a Fisher King/Merlin instead?" (women don't need to apply as anything more than red herrings, of course) twist was apparently too near and dear to his heart to abandon back then.  We can only hope that it is now, otherwise we are in for a boring travelogue where Bran escapes back to the North in the depth of Winter without somehow dying from frostbite in his paralyzed extremities, with the Others on his heels. Ditto some truly massive deus ex machina to somehow make him a political player. And as to his tax policy, Bloodraven's consciousness would need to share his body for him to have any. All of which would require a lot of pages badly needed elsewhere, sigh. 

 

On 5/20/2020 at 3:13 AM, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, I assume the dragons were the big deterrent that prevented the Others from making their great move earlier.

 

Possibly, but I also think that the Long Night only happens when "the stars are right". My theory is that the Others goal is to prevent the Long Night from ever ending by the means of some great magical working. Which would explain the CoTF helping the humans to prevent it somehow the last time around - it would have eventually wiped out all life on Planetos, if successful. But I also think that the "real" time-line since the last LN is 2-3 times shorter than the 8 thousands years that we have heard so often. Certainly, in FaB the history does appear much more compressed than what we were supposed to believe. So, Valyria may have come to be in immediate response to the last LN as a means to prevent the repetition of it.

I agree with you about the plagues and I almost suspect that the Others might be connected to the Faceless Men too.

 

On 5/20/2020 at 3:13 AM, Lord Varys said:

They cannot really rebuild exactly the same shitty world and society that allowed the Others to nearly kill everybody.

I have always believed that the great die-off  during the Long Night and the  influx of freedmen from the East would change the society and finally kick off Renaissance in Westeros, like the Black Death and the renewed interest in classical antiquity via eastern influences  did iRL. But GRRM seems to have envisioned a "back to the roots" scenario, where foreign hordes and 3 baby dragons are somehow an equal counterpoint to the Others and the Long Night as "Fire" to their "Ice". So, I dunno what his thinking was there. I can only hope that it has changed.

 

On 5/20/2020 at 3:13 AM, Lord Varys said:

I don't like the concept of magic dying very much since that's very much a standard fantasy trope.

Yes, so many authors just use it mindlessly because Tolkien and various myths did so. But of course _they_ did it for a reason, as they were depicting the alleged/invented past of RL societies, which, naturally, didn't have magic in their present. So it had to go. Ditto non-humans. But that's not the case with fantasy stories that are set in secondary worlds wholly unconnected to our reality and aren't a transparent metaphor for growing up and supposedly becoming more rational (ha!). There it is just a hoary, unexamined trope, comaparable to "it was all a dream".     

 

On 5/20/2020 at 3:13 AM, Lord Varys said:

The Others plot is the one George build up very slowly ... it is not going to be one he is going to rush by, say, having them breach the Wall in the second Mel or Jon chapter in TWoW.

Couldn't disagree more. The worst thing GRRM can do is to trivialize the LN and the Others and remain wholly mired in the mundane squabbling of nobles, like the mummers did. Yes ADwD ignored the Others, which is why they need to come back with a bang early in TWoW, with something frightening and unexpected. Like, for instance with the revelation that they have already infiltrated the North, for which they have multiple options built up - the wildlings from the Fozen Shore could have smuggled them in on the boats sailing around the Wall, those of them among Tormund's people could have hidden inert Others in their baggage and brought them through the wall, the ships sent to Hardhome could come back seemingly empty, like something out of Dracula, etc. I think that they tested whether it could work back in AGoT with the 2 inert wights that the NW brought through the Wall and which became active again on the other side.

And, of course, the Weeper could bring them in when he smashes through the Shadow Tower. Or just unwittingly interfere with the  magic of the Wall in the process. After all, the Wall alone wasn't deemed sufficient to pen in the Others back in the day - men were also required to hold it.  

 

On 5/20/2020 at 3:13 AM, Lord Varys said:

If George wanted to get to the Others soon he would not have introduced all the stuff we got in AFfC/ADwD. Instead those two books would have build up the fall of the Wall - which they did not.

But they did, IMHO. They built a number of ways that a vanguard of the Others could use to surreptitiously get through/around the Wall. And all the renewed infighting in the North  provides them with the corpses for their army. The resemblance of the Wall to the Maginot line and the false sense of security that the latter inspired can't be a coincidence.

 

On 5/20/2020 at 3:13 AM, Lord Varys said:

The main reason why we have to expect that the Others will take their time some more is the simple fact that there will be a Second Dance of the Dragons - which strongly suggests another kind of civil war in which Dany and Aegon will be (the) two main pretenders.

Honestly, it wasn't a great idea to begin with and it makes even less sense now. It's main purpose seems to have been the weakening of the south in preparation for the Long Night and vilification of Dany, but neither is really needed. Between Cersei, Euron, fAegon, Arianne, the abrupt arrival of Winter and the impending greyscale plague epidemic, the south will be more than sufficiently weakened as it is. To have yet another protracted conflict between fAegon and Dany would be extremely repetitive and pointless. This time the dragons can mainly danse with other people. After all, the initial idea for ADwD was Dany versus Bran...  

As to Dany's reputation, it is already quite bad from her doings (and slander of her) in Essos and is only bound to become worse. If fAegon dies, she will get blamed, no matter where she is. Not to mention that the whole idea of Dany invading with a Dothraki horde in Winter just doesn't work. Apart from the implausibility of transporting them across the Narrow Sea during a stormy season, they and their horses are used to warm climate and should just die in droves in Westeros without achieving much. If they had been more like Mongols who served as a loose inspiration for them, then it would have been a different story.

In any case, most people in the  south aren't going to believe that the Others are real until they make it to the Riverlands. The Weeper's invasion and northern infighting will muddle the things sufficiently as it is, and if the Others are worthy of the hype in any way, they won't reveal themselves in strength until they attack and bring down Stannis at Winterfell. And at that point, will any ravens even win through? Not that humans are likely to completely stop their squabbling even once the danger becomes evident to them.

 If TWoW doesn't end with Stannis and Winterfell falling to the Others, then the whole LN threat will end up as a damp squib like in the show. Which would really downgrade ASoIaF as a work of fiction and be an enormous waste of it's potential, IMHO, YMMV.

[Lord Varys]

On 7/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, Maia said:

I have always thought that Bran would remain in the background and steer the events to some extent  through the trees, animals and dreams. Perhaps even Hodor. Oh, and that he might eventually be able to wrest  control over the groups of  wights from the Others. The advantage of such a role would have also been that GRRM wouldn't have needed to introduce so many "window" PoVs or send established characters in contrived ways to places where something needed to be observed. Bran could just do it through a raven or whatever.

I think we can expect all that to happen at least to some degree. Bran will no longer be a single individual but effectively a person with as many eyes and bodies as he can muster.

On 7/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, Maia said:

However, this didn't seem to be GRRM's plan even as late as when he finished ADwD, as evidenced by the mummer's tale and King Bran being one of the 3 "holy shit!" Martin's revelations to them. Which honestly boggles my mind. He thankfully gave up on a lot of bad ideas in his initial outline for ASoIaF by that point, but the "what if it isn't an Arthur equivalent who gets the crown in the end, but a Fisher King/Merlin instead?" (women don't need to apply as anything more than red herrings, of course) twist was apparently too near and dear to his heart to abandon back then.  We can only hope that it is now, otherwise we are in for a boring travelogue where Bran escapes back to the North in the depth of Winter without somehow dying from frostbite in his paralyzed extremities, with the Others on his heels. Ditto some truly massive deus ex machina to somehow make him a political player. And as to his tax policy, Bloodraven's consciousness would need to share his body for him to have any. All of which would require a lot of pages badly needed elsewhere, sigh. 

I still can't wrap my head around a 'King Bran' scenario, but Bran as a kind of guardian/steward of Westeros with the power to chastise and punish the lords and kings of Westeros if they misbehave/act against the common good is something I definitely can see. In light of the fact how badly the show adapted the entire Bran story it wouldn't be surprising if George's idea of 'Bran in charge' would differ greatly from the way GoT did it.

I still sort of expect that the mundane power passes from Daenerys to her miraculous love child by Jon Snow - a plot the show runners hinted at but which was ultimately not used in the show. But I really cannot see Bran sitting on an actual throne in King's Landing. That is a ludicrous idea.

On 7/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, Maia said:

Possibly, but I also think that the Long Night only happens when "the stars are right". My theory is that the Others goal is to prevent the Long Night from ever ending by the means of some great magical working. Which would explain the CoTF helping the humans to prevent it somehow the last time around - it would have eventually wiped out all life on Planetos, if successful. But I also think that the "real" time-line since the last LN is 2-3 times shorter than the 8 thousands years that we have heard so often. Certainly, in FaB the history does appear much more compressed than what we were supposed to believe. So, Valyria may have come to be in immediate response to the last LN as a means to prevent the repetition of it.

Not sure why the Long Night should only be happening at a specific time. There is no indication in the books so far that this might be the case. It seems more likely to me that the relative strength of fire magic due to the power of Valyria and later the presence of the Targaryen dragons in Westeros crippled the abilities of the Others to cause another Long Night.

Chances are the Others are immortal or very long-lived, meaning they would make plans stretching over centuries. And if most Others were actually killed back during the War for the Dawn then it may have taken them a long time to replenish their numbers if they actually have convince human parents to hand over their newborn boys to them.

On 7/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, Maia said:

I agree with you about the plagues and I almost suspect that the Others might be connected to the Faceless Men too.

That would surprise me very much. The Faceless Men strike as a pretty rational death cult - theirs is a philosophy born from suffering, nothing I'd connect to ice demons determined to wipe out all life.

The Faceless Men do not try to kill everybody. They view death as a gift, not as something that everybody should have as quickly as possible.

On 7/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, Maia said:

I have always believed that the great die-off  during the Long Night and the  influx of freedmen from the East would change the society and finally kick off Renaissance in Westeros, like the Black Death and the renewed interest in classical antiquity via eastern influences  did iRL. But GRRM seems to have envisioned a "back to the roots" scenario, where foreign hordes and 3 baby dragons are somehow an equal counterpoint to the Others and the Long Night as "Fire" to their "Ice". So, I dunno what his thinking was there. I can only hope that it has changed.

Oh, I think that definitely will be more or less as you envision it in the books. But I'm not sure we are going to see many of those changes actually happening, considering the novels should cover all that much time after the last battle is fought (aside from a brief Epilogue from Bran's POV, perhaps, giving us a fast-forward of the next 100-200 years).

On 7/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, Maia said:

Yes, so many authors just use it mindlessly because Tolkien and various myths did so. But of course _they_ did it for a reason, as they were depicting the alleged/invented past of RL societies, which, naturally, didn't have magic in their present. So it had to go. Ditto non-humans. But that's not the case with fantasy stories that are set in secondary worlds wholly unconnected to our reality and aren't a transparent metaphor for growing up and supposedly becoming more rational (ha!). There it is just a hoary, unexamined trope, comaparable to "it was all a dream".     

Yeah, I guess George is going to take the 'mammoths and giants and Children of the Forest are dying' road - perhaps even the wildling lifestyle - but there is no reason why the dragons or other types of magic have to go. Bran could bring about the return of the First Men culture.

On 7/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, Maia said:

Couldn't disagree more. The worst thing GRRM can do is to trivialize the LN and the Others and remain wholly mired in the mundane squabbling of nobles, like the mummers did. Yes ADwD ignored the Others, which is why they need to come back with a bang early in TWoW, with something frightening and unexpected. Like, for instance with the revelation that they have already infiltrated the North, for which they have multiple options built up - the wildlings from the Fozen Shore could have smuggled them in on the boats sailing around the Wall, those of them among Tormund's people could have hidden inert Others in their baggage and brought them through the wall, the ships sent to Hardhome could come back seemingly empty, like something out of Dracula, etc. I think that they tested whether it could work back in AGoT with the 2 inert wights that the NW brought through the Wall and which became active again on the other side.

And, of course, the Weeper could bring them in when he smashes through the Shadow Tower. Or just unwittingly interfere with the  magic of the Wall in the process. After all, the Wall alone wasn't deemed sufficient to pen in the Others back in the day - men were also required to hold it.  

The Others should be important ... but I just don't think the series will be over in two books, and I think if we were to get big Others-related early in the next book there would have been some buildup for that.

That the Others will hopefully show up again is a given, but I've considerable problems assuming the Wall will fall at the end of TWoW.

And while the idea that some wights or Others might show up south of the Wall is intriguing - I thought something like that might happen back in ADwD - they would have to keep a low profile to not rock the plots down in the south and in Essos - which just have to play out. Daenerys cannot teleport to Westeros.

I personally think that the Others plots in TWoW are more likely to revolve around foolish and doomed attempts of Stannis, Melisandre, and Jon Snow to stop the Others before they can bring down the Wall ... rather than them circumventing the Wall in great numbers. Although I certainly could see them repeating Mance's ploy with more success.

On 7/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, Maia said:

But they did, IMHO. They built a number of ways that a vanguard of the Others could use to surreptitiously get through/around the Wall. And all the renewed infighting in the North  provides them with the corpses for their army. The resemblance of the Wall to the Maginot line and the false sense of security that the latter inspired can't be a coincidence.

By 'building up the fall of the Wall' I meant a continuation of the Horn of Joramun plot - which will be most likely used to cause the earthquake that's going to destroy the Wall -, or some other indication that the Others and their armies are already close to the Wall and about to attack. Nothing in ADwD indicated that this was the case.

Lots of wights seems to be at Hardhome but not close to the Wall. And it also seems as if George really intends that the plot about manning the other castles at the Wall and the Nightfort eventually becoming Stannis' seat is going to go somewhere.

On 7/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, Maia said:

Honestly, it wasn't a great idea to begin with and it makes even less sense now. It's main purpose seems to have been the weakening of the south in preparation for the Long Night and vilification of Dany, but neither is really needed. Between Cersei, Euron, fAegon, Arianne, the abrupt arrival of Winter and the impending greyscale plague epidemic, the south will be more than sufficiently weakened as it is. To have yet another protracted conflict between fAegon and Dany would be extremely repetitive and pointless. This time the dragons can mainly danse with other people. After all, the initial idea for ADwD was Dany versus Bran...  

Where are you getting the idea that Bran and Dany would fight each other?

The foreshadowing that there will be at least a short and bloody conflict between Dany and Aegon are too big to ignore, in my opinion. The entire Aegon plot makes no sense if he ends up thrown under the bus or joins the other good guys in the fight against the Others.

On 7/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, Maia said:

As to Dany's reputation, it is already quite bad from her doings (and slander of her) in Essos and is only bound to become worse. If fAegon dies, she will get blamed, no matter where she is. Not to mention that the whole idea of Dany invading with a Dothraki horde in Winter just doesn't work. Apart from the implausibility of transporting them across the Narrow Sea during a stormy season, they and their horses are used to warm climate and should just die in droves in Westeros without achieving much. If they had been more like Mongols who served as a loose inspiration for them, then it would have been a different story.

I don't think the Dothraki will face many problems in Westeros. For one, autumn and spring are also a thing in the Dothraki Sea. The grass dies in autumn as we see in ADwD. Eventually, it is also going to snow there, and the Dothraki survived that in the past, too.

I don't think Dany would be blamed for Aegon's death if Aegon were killed by Euron, the Tyrells, or the Lannisters. In fact, I'm not particularly convinced that Aegon is going to be a good king. I think the natural climax of his plot is the revelation that he is not Varys' ideal king, i.e. he will either become a tyrant or at least show that he is not up to the task of governing Westeros.

While I agree that Aegon's people are likely to paint Daenerys as a monster ... this doesn't mean Westeros (and especially Aegon's enemies in Westeros) will necessary continue to view as the super king after he has taken the throne.

He could very quickly become the Rhaenyra of ASoIaF - in the sense that he is first popular with most people but ends up being loathed and hated after his rule starts to affect the lives of the common people.

On 7/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, Maia said:

In any case, most people in the  south aren't going to believe that the Others are real until they make it to the Riverlands. The Weeper's invasion and northern infighting will muddle the things sufficiently as it is, and if the Others are worthy of the hype in any way, they won't reveal themselves in strength until they attack and bring down Stannis at Winterfell. And at that point, will any ravens even win through? Not that humans are likely to completely stop their squabbling even once the danger becomes evident to them.

I think when the Wall falls people in the south will have to listen. Even if they have other things on their plate they will listen, even more so when the first refugees show up by ship, one horseback, and on foot.

And Stannis is not likely to be attacked at Winterfell. If he ever faces the Others that should happen at the Wall.

On 7/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, Maia said:

 If TWoW doesn't end with Stannis and Winterfell falling to the Others, then the whole LN threat will end up as a damp squib like in the show. Which would really downgrade ASoIaF as a work of fiction and be an enormous waste of it's potential, IMHO, YMMV.

If ADoS were the final volume of the series, yes. If not, then not.

However, if the series were finished in seven volumes then the Others would still be pretty much a joke since them only coming to fore in the sixth volume wouldn't make them much of a threat.

[Kyll.Ing.]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think the Dothraki will face many problems in Westeros. For one, autumn and spring are also a thing in the Dothraki Sea. The grass dies in autumn as we see in ADwD. Eventually, it is also going to snow there, and the Dothraki survived that in the past, too.

Everything we've been told about the Dothraki suggests taking them to Westeros would be a disaster for them. Westeros doesn't have vast grasslands where such a large number of horses can graze, and the terrain doesn't favour the tactics of a cavalry-based army. A khalasar can't fight in a mountain pass or a bog, and not do well in forests either, and they'd be worse than useless in Dorne (a horse drinks, what, twenty liters of water a day? Good luck finding that in regions where there are weeks of travel between wells). A Dothraki khalasar in Westeros would lose its one crucial feature: its mobility. And without the ability to move fast and freely, the horses would graze the land empty quite quickly, and that spells more problems. 

And that's assuming the whole horde is magically teleported to the same place on Westerosi shores. The logistics of the crossing would be one heck of a challenge. We saw how well it went for the disciplined and experienced Golden Company, and they presumably knew a thing or two about seafaring. The Dothraki actively hate it and seek to avoid it. It is pretty much given that the khalasar would have to be split up to travel on ships (unless somebody magically comes up with enough ships to carry a hundred thousand men and twice as many horses at once, in which case the bottleneck is moved to the ports instead), and a split khalasar is two khalasars. Consider a scenario where Daenerys takes Pentos and seizes all ships in the harbour to ferry her army across the sea. Only a small portion of the ships would be able to load up horses at all (this requires ramps and relatively tall decks with large compartments, not something you'd find on any fishing boat), and most would require a prepared harbour to make land at all. You can't storm the beaches using ships built for transporting lumber, and even a war galley makes a poor landing craft. In other words, if you want to transport an army of horsemen on ships, and land without a prepared harbour, you need a whole lot of ships built specifically for that purpose. To carry out her invasion, Daenerys would ideally need to conquer a shipyard and then allow for a few years of preparation. Alternatively, she'll have to make do with a small number of capable ships, and ferry her kahalasar piecewise.

And that brings up another problem I mentioned earlier. The first batch of ships could maybe take a fifth of the horde across the Narrow Sea, with Daenerys supervising from dragonback. It would take weeks for the ships to be back in Pentos. The remaining Dothraki waiting in Pentos would probably elect a new khal and sod off back towards the Dothraki Sea, as far away from the Poison Water as they can possibly get, because they've grown up being told how dangerous the sea is. Some ships may not even make it out of the harbour before being rocked by a wave, and the seasick Dothraki put a sword to the captain's throat and make him turn back towards firm ground. Daenerys can't be everywhere at once to convince them otherwise. She would be needed on the Westerosi beachhead to repel any attempts to drive the Dothraki back into the sea (given earlier discussions on these forums about the relative merits of unarmored cavalry versus combined arms on terrain that doesn't explicitly favour the former, they would have to have the support of a dragon or two to have a chance of survival), and we know how fickle loyalty is in Dothrakis when the khal is away. Splitting up the khalasar creates several smaller khalasars.

TL;DR, the Dothraki are masters of the grasslands because they are highly adapted for the grasslands, but would be woefully ineffective elsewhere. They are dependent on open plains for rapid movement (both in battle and between battles, so they can hit-and-run on both a tactical and strategical level), they need a steady supply of grass to feed their vast number of horses, and their social dynamics requires that the khal must never be further away than a day's ride or so. Their entire way of life and systems of belief is shown to be directly incompatible with sea travel, and large-scale ferrying of men and horses can't be pulled off with any random ships either. In short, a Dothraki invasion would be a logistical nightmare to pull off, and a complete folly given how few of the Dothraki success factors are present in Westeros. 

And a quick look at how the Mongols solved these problems historically: tons and tons of levied infantry to fight in terrain where horses aren't practical, they wore armour, and recruited the aid of Chinese engineers to help them get past fortifications. The Dothraki are shown to have only one plan of battle, which is "unarmored men on horseback charging wildly at the enemies", while the scoff at any sort of adaptation to the situation. This attitude  famously led them to lose a battle where they outnumbered their enemies sixteen to one, losing all their commanders before calling it quits.

TL;DR again: The Dothraki have nothing to do in Westeros except dying stupidly. 

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

Everything we've been told about the Dothraki suggests taking them to Westeros would be a disaster for them. Westeros doesn't have vast grasslands where such a large number of horses can graze, and the terrain doesn't favour the tactics of a cavalry-based army. A khalasar can't fight in a mountain pass or a bog, and not do well in forests either, and they'd be worse than useless in Dorne (a horse drinks, what, twenty liters of water a day? Good luck finding that in regions where there are weeks of travel between wells). A Dothraki khalasar in Westeros would lose its one crucial feature: its mobility. And without the ability to move fast and freely, the horses would graze the land empty quite quickly, and that spells more problems. 

And that's assuming the whole horde is magically teleported to the same place on Westerosi shores. The logistics of the crossing would be one heck of a challenge. We saw how well it went for the disciplined and experienced Golden Company, and they presumably knew a thing or two about seafaring. The Dothraki actively hate it and seek to avoid it. It is pretty much given that the khalasar would have to be split up to travel on ships (unless somebody magically comes up with enough ships to carry a hundred thousand men and twice as many horses at once, in which case the bottleneck is moved to the ports instead), and a split khalasar is two khalasars. Consider a scenario where Daenerys takes Pentos and seizes all ships in the harbour to ferry her army across the sea. Only a small portion of the ships would be able to load up horses at all (this requires ramps and relatively tall decks with large compartments, not something you'd find on any fishing boat), and most would require a prepared harbour to make land at all. You can't storm the beaches using ships built for transporting lumber, and even a war galley makes a poor landing craft. In other words, if you want to transport an army of horsemen on ships, and land without a prepared harbour, you need a whole lot of ships built specifically for that purpose. To carry out her invasion, Daenerys would ideally need to conquer a shipyard and then allow for a few years of preparation. Alternatively, she'll have to make do with a small number of capable ships, and ferry her kahalasar piecewise.

And that brings up another problem I mentioned earlier. The first batch of ships could maybe take a fifth of the horde across the Narrow Sea, with Daenerys supervising from dragonback. It would take weeks for the ships to be back in Pentos. The remaining Dothraki waiting in Pentos would probably elect a new khal and sod off back towards the Dothraki Sea, as far away from the Poison Water as they can possibly get, because they've grown up being told how dangerous the sea is. Some ships may not even make it out of the harbour before being rocked by a wave, and the seasick Dothraki put a sword to the captain's throat and make him turn back towards firm ground. Daenerys can't be everywhere at once to convince them otherwise. She would be needed on the Westerosi beachhead to repel any attempts to drive the Dothraki back into the sea (given earlier discussions on these forums about the relative merits of unarmored cavalry versus combined arms on terrain that doesn't explicitly favour the former, they would have to have the support of a dragon or two to have a chance of survival), and we know how fickle loyalty is in Dothrakis when the khal is away. Splitting up the khalasar creates several smaller khalasars.

TL;DR, the Dothraki are masters of the grasslands because they are highly adapted for the grasslands, but would be woefully ineffective elsewhere. They are dependent on open plains for rapid movement (both in battle and between battles, so they can hit-and-run on both a tactical and strategical level), they need a steady supply of grass to feed their vast number of horses, and their social dynamics requires that the khal must never be further away than a day's ride or so. Their entire way of life and systems of belief is shown to be directly incompatible with sea travel, and large-scale ferrying of men and horses can't be pulled off with any random ships either. In short, a Dothraki invasion would be a logistical nightmare to pull off, and a complete folly given how few of the Dothraki success factors are present in Westeros. 

And a quick look at how the Mongols solved these problems historically: tons and tons of levied infantry to fight in terrain where horses aren't practical, they wore armour, and recruited the aid of Chinese engineers to help them get past fortifications. The Dothraki are shown to have only one plan of battle, which is "unarmored men on horseback charging wildly at the enemies", while the scoff at any sort of adaptation to the situation. This attitude  famously led them to lose a battle where they outnumbered their enemies sixteen to one, losing all their commanders before calling it quits.

TL;DR again: The Dothraki have nothing to do in Westeros except dying stupidly. 

You are mostly addressing stuff here we are not really talking about.

I never imagined the Dothraki fighting in Dorne or mountain passes - of course that would be kind of stupid (although not that stupid, Daeron I also conquered Dorne and he, presumably, also had horses with him in the Sands ... not to mention the fact that the Dornishmen themselves also ride horses). Dothraki making up part of the invasion army of a Targaryen pretender won't need to conquer all of Westeros. All they have to do is take the Iron Throne and/or put down rival pretenders. Then the Westerosi lords will fall in line. Many would even join a Targaryen pretender with dragons.

The idea that the Westerosi terrain is vastly different from the Dothraki Sea is also a stretch, in my opinion. Sure, some land there is cultivated, but most definitely not all the land. Most of Westeros is still a wilderness of sorts. And they can burn the fields and villages and towns. They know how to do that, they did it in Essos for hundreds of years.

And the question of how to control the Dothraki won't come up if Daenerys is becomes the Stallion Who Mounts the World. Then she will be their messiah, the person all the Dothraki will treat like a living god, meaning they will do as she says and not suffer doubts or opposition in their ranks.

There are also sufficient ships for what Daenerys wants. She won't be stuck with Pentos alone, she can take the ships of the Myrmen as well, and those of the Volantenes, the Ghiscari (from all the slaver cities - Meereen, Yunkai, New Ghis, etc.) and even the Qartheen. In addition to Ironborn ships. In all those cities shipyards would be available, by the way.

Nobody suggested that Daenerys would have to ship all the Dothraki across the Narrow Sea at once. She could take a smaller contingent for the first attack, and ship more across the Narrow Sea when she has secured KL.

[BlackLightning]

On 7/28/2021 at 7:08 AM, Maia said:

We can only hope that it is now, otherwise we are in for a boring travelogue where Bran escapes back to the North in the depth of Winter without somehow dying from frostbite in his paralyzed extremities, with the Others on his heels.

My theory is that Bran will escape back to the North by way of Gorne's Way. That is, the underground network of caves, rivers and tunnels that Ygritte told Jon about way back in A Storm of Swords. And due to all the hints revolving around the Winterfell crypts and the story of Bael the Bard, I think that some of those tunnels will lead Bran to Winterfell...he'll literally be carried right out of the crypts as if he had been woken from the dead.

Naturally, Gorne's Way will be infested with other horrors. But how could it be if Bran was to appear right out of the crypts on some sort of a litter with Meera Reed and his own retinue of Children of the Forest.

But yeah: methinks that these tunnels lead from Beyond the Wall all the way to the Stormlands in some capacity.

On 7/28/2021 at 7:08 AM, Maia said:

I agree with you about the plagues and I almost suspect that the Others might be connected to the Faceless Men too.

Not a chance.

The Faceless Men worship death as a gift and the beautiful thing but the Others make death not only pointless but ugly. They literally just won't let it die. In the eyes of the Faceless Men, the Others would not only be a existential threat but a sacrilegious abomination.

And that's under the presumption that the Others are not resurrecting people and skinchanging their bodies while their minds are still somewhat conscious. That would make it worst: the Faceless Men and Dany would have natural enemies in the Others because that would be the worst kind of slavrey.

On 7/30/2021 at 5:47 PM, Lord Varys said:

You are mostly addressing stuff here we are not really talking about.

I never imagined the Dothraki fighting in Dorne or mountain passes - of course that would be kind of stupid (although not that stupid, Daeron I also conquered Dorne and he, presumably, also had horses with him in the Sands ... not to mention the fact that the Dornishmen themselves also ride horses). Dothraki making up part of the invasion army of a Targaryen pretender won't need to conquer all of Westeros. All they have to do is take the Iron Throne and/or put down rival pretenders. Then the Westerosi lords will fall in line. Many would even join a Targaryen pretender with dragons.

The idea that the Westerosi terrain is vastly different from the Dothraki Sea is also a stretch, in my opinion. Sure, some land there is cultivated, but most definitely not all the land. Most of Westeros is still a wilderness of sorts. And they can burn the fields and villages and towns. They know how to do that, they did it in Essos for hundreds of years.

And the question of how to control the Dothraki won't come up if Daenerys is becomes the Stallion Who Mounts the World. Then she will be their messiah, the person all the Dothraki will treat like a living god, meaning they will do as she says and not suffer doubts or opposition in their ranks.

There are also sufficient ships for what Daenerys wants. She won't be stuck with Pentos alone, she can take the ships of the Myrmen as well, and those of the Volantenes, the Ghiscari (from all the slaver cities - Meereen, Yunkai, New Ghis, etc.) and even the Qartheen. In addition to Ironborn ships. In all those cities shipyards would be available, by the way.

Nobody suggested that Daenerys would have to ship all the Dothraki across the Narrow Sea at once. She could take a smaller contingent for the first attack, and ship more across the Narrow Sea when she has secured KL.

Exactly. Dany can also commission the building of more ships, of specialized ships designed for carrying horses or food. And she can ferry these ships bit by bit after she has established a beachfront or captured one of Westeros' many harbors/shipyards.

Daenerys' invasion of Westeros will be multi-pronged. I can see her visiting or even installing herself and her court on Dragonstone while commandeering the landing of the Dothraki in Dorne, the Reach, the Stormlands and the Crownlands. Maybe even the Vale.

If GRRM wants a true fire vs. ice, north vs. south dichotomy in his theme, the bulk of Daenerys' forces will likely be situated in Dorne or in the bottom half of the Reach. Either that, the Stormlands or Saltpans.

On 7/28/2021 at 7:08 AM, Maia said:

After all, the initial idea for ADwD was Dany versus Bran...  

 No, the initial idea for Dance was a three-way war between Dany, Aegon and the Lannisters

The initial idea for Winds -- the final book in the trilogy -- might've been a Dany versus the Starks situation but I disagree. I think it was going to be the Others versus Dany versus the entire realm (the lords and smallfolk of Westeros acting as stand-ins for the Sons of the Harpy) 

[Cas Stark]

It's almost September, it looks like yet another year with no Winds.  

[SeanBeanedMeUp]

I think GRRM is also trying to figure out how to tie the story together because it has gotten so huge at this point. If he has written a lot of material I hope it's for the next book so that we won't have to wait as much.

[Rubicante]

On 8/25/2021 at 9:57 AM, Cas Stark said:

It's almost September, it looks like yet another year with no Winds.  

Sadly, I have pretty much given up hope that we will even get to read The Winds of Winter.  A Dream of Spring will certainly never be written.  There seem to be mixed messages like "the writing is going well", then followed up with "I have hundreds and hundreds of pages to write".  It's been over 10 years since A Dance With Dragons was released.  I'm exceptionally frustrated by this, considering the time investment I put both into the books and television show.

On a positive note though, I have discovered a lot of other good fantasy series.  I am currently reading through the First Law Trilogy, which I am really enjoying (I love how crude Joe Abercrombie writes).  Robin Hobb's Farseer Trilogy and Liveship Trader Trilogy, also all very good.  And Patrick Rothfuss's Kingkiller Trilogy...oh wait, nevermind.  I also had to give up hope on that ever being completed.

Thankfully, there is a fantasy reading life outside of A Song of Ice and Fire.  Also, if The Winds of Winter is never released, then Stannis will never burn Shireen.  So maybe this is actually a good thing.

[TheLastWolf]

7 hours ago, Rubicante said:

Also, if The Winds of Winter is never released, then Stannis will never burn Shireen.  So maybe this is actually a good thing.

Bah, I'd accept the burning of half the Planetos population if it means the completion of the saga...

[Mister Smikes]

On 8/26/2021 at 8:41 PM, Rubicante said:

Sadly, I have pretty much given up hope that we will even get to read The Winds of Winter.  A Dream of Spring will certainly never be written.  There seem to be mixed messages like "the writing is going well", then followed up with "I have hundreds and hundreds of pages to write".  It's been over 10 years since A Dance With Dragons was released.  I'm exceptionally frustrated by this, considering the time investment I put both into the books and television show.

On his NAB today, GRRM mentions how great it was to have an interview where nobody asked him about THE WINDS OF WINTER.  That he feels this way, at this late date, is not a good sign.

Meanwhile, he has told us so little about his progress over the last 10 years, that I don't see how you could prove, from everything he has said which can actually be nailed down, that he has more than 600 pages completed.  That includes the 200 pages "in a more-or less finished state" that he reported in Summer, 2012, and the "hundreds and hundreds" of pages -- (that should mean at least 400, right?  Or am I being too optimistic?) -- that he wrote while in isolation during the lockdown.  

Dude, it's been 10 years.  Give us a real update.

When we were within a year of completion of DANCE you could not stop him from talking about his progress on his NAB.  

[Cas Stark]

57 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

On his NAB today, GRRM mentions how great it was to have an interview where nobody asked him about THE WINDS OF WINTER.  That he feels this way, at this late date, is not a good sign.

Meanwhile, he has told us so little about his progress over the last 10 years, that I don't see how you could prove, from everything he has said which can actually be nailed down, that he has more than 600 pages completed.  That includes the 200 pages "in a more-or less finished state" that he reported in Summer, 2012, and the "hundreds and hundreds" of pages -- (that should mean at least 400, right?  Or am I being too optimistic?) -- that he wrote while in isolation during the lockdown.  

Dude, it's been 10 years.  Give us a real update.

When we were within a year of completion of DANCE you could not stop him from talking about his progress on his NAB.  

I don't care about an update, because his updates are not very useful, this is the guy who was adamant that he would never let GOT outpace his own writing.  My speculation is that he had written very, very little until the pandemic, that, being forced into isolation and to abandon the vast majority of his other distractions, he was able to work well and consistently for several months....and that now that things have opened up and entertainment is rolling again, he's put Winds back on the back burner where it has sat for most of the last 10 years.  In my opinion.

He may never finish it, I don't see how, even if he gets Winds out next year...since this year now seems very, very unlikely...if he was on the cusp of finishing he wouldn't complain or care that anyone asked about Winds....that he will ever finish the series.  

[Mister Smikes]

44 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

I don't care about an update, because his updates are not very useful, this is the guy who was adamant that he would never let GOT outpace his own writing. 

By update, I mean a real progress report, not a statement of intent, or hope, or projection.  For instance, as DANCE was nearing completion, he gave us regular page-count updates.

But yes, I agree that most of his updates are not real updates.

Quote

My speculation is that he had written very, very little until the pandemic, [...]

Well, I don't want to speculate about things I cannot prove, lest folks get mad at me.  All I am saying is that the only progress that can be nailed down, from semi concrete progress reports given by GRRM over the years, is roughly 600 pages.  This includes roughly 200 pages finished reported in Summer, 2012 (most if not all of which was apparently material left over from DANCE), and "hundreds and hundreds" of pages written during the lockdown.   

And I'm not saying the situation is really that bad.  All I am saying is that, if the situation is better than that, then a page-count progress update might help some of us not give up hope completely.

For instance, if he tells us he has 900 pages written, that might give me some hope of seeing WINDS at some point within the next 5 years.  But that would also disappoint alot of people, which I guess is why he does not do it.

Quote

...if he was on the cusp of finishing he wouldn't complain or care that anyone asked about Winds....  

Right.

[Rubicante]

I hate to add even more pessimism, but part of me thinks that maybe George is giving updates on him making progress for TWOW because he doesn’t want book readers to abandon following the new HBO series. Is it one series or two? I actually don’t know because I have no intention of watching it.  I don’t want to devote any more of my money to an incomplete book series.
 

If George no longer feels capable of finishing TWOW or the series, I would prefer he just come out and admit it.  Yes, I would definitely be disappointed, but I could at least then sympathize with how much of a struggle it has been for him to write. Can’t fault a person for not being able to produce something if they are struggling. And if he isn’t enjoying writing anymore, why force yourself to keep writing?

[SeanBeanedMeUp]

At this point it really can't help for GRRM to assign a replacement writer to succeed him after he dies. Brandon Sanderson could be up for the task.

[CamiloRP]

6 hours ago, SeanBeanedMeUp said:

At this point it really can't help for GRRM to assign a replacement writer to succeed him after he dies. Brandon Sanderson could be up for the task.

Brandon Sanderson would be an awful replacement for GRRM, not to say that he's a bad writer, but his style and George's don't match at all, and ASOIAF is drenched in symbolism, themes and other such things that Sanderson disagrees fully with.

[Morte]

12 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Brandon Sanderson would be an awful replacement for GRRM, not to say that he's a bad writer, but his style and George's don't match at all, and ASOIAF is drenched in symbolism, themes and other such things that Sanderson disagrees fully with.

Not only that, but also: replacement-writers work so-so than working with material from the bequest of architects (they tend to be better if they were part of a tandem with the deceased to begin with, but not even this is a guarantee for the quality of the work to be on par with before the loss, see Albert Uderzo after the passing of René Goscinny, for example).

But GRRM is a gardener, his work is best, then he let's his characters have a say in what and how they would do/react to something and where the story is heading. The whole mess started then he decided he wanted the plot to go in a very specific direction in a very specific way - and then that he could not write that.

So the worse case of someone, anyone, trying to finish ASoIaF after GRRMs death could very well turn out to be: "Yup, it's just another Misunderstood-Frank-Herbert-completely-plot, and sorry folks: there is no way to write the characters into this ending without bending them until they break. But at least I was paid for it. *big shrug*"

[Kyll.Ing.]

My opinion is, let's cross that bridge when we get there - that is, if we get there. GRRM is still alive and kicking, after all. I wouldn't really want to discuss his replacement unless he makes it explicitly clear he's not going to finish the series.

[Rubicante]

19 hours ago, SeanBeanedMeUp said:

At this point it really can't help for GRRM to assign a replacement writer to succeed him after he dies. Brandon Sanderson could be up for the task.

I know Sanderson finished The Wheel of Time series. Did he do a good job? I gave up on the series at Crossroads of Twilight.

I’ve read the first three books in Sanderson’s Stormlight Archives. Good books, although Sanderson seems to write at a PG level. I don’t know if that would be compatible with George’s series that would be an R rating.

 

 

[mormont]

GRRM's repeatedly stated position - which as far as I know is also that of his heirs - is that nobody else is going to be asked to finish the series, whatever happens. So this discussion, I'm afraid, is redundant.