Do we think George passed 1500 manuscript pages?

[swirlingdown]

On 9/3/2021 at 9:54 AM, SeanBeanedMeUp said:

Brandon Sanderson could be up for the task.

7 hours ago, Rubicante said:

I know Sanderson finished The Wheel of Time series. Did he do a good job?

There's little point in speculating about Sanderson because he has explicitly stated that he won't do it. He only read AGOT and he didn't like it (mostly for being too dark and because he feels it's incompatible with his Christian worldview).

 

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

6 hours ago, mormont said:

GRRM's repeatedly stated position - which as far as I know is also that of his heirs - is that nobody else is going to be asked to finish the series, whatever happens. 

Which is probably for the best. After seeing season 8 of the show, I'd rather have the series remain unfinished than having a subpar ending.

[Rubicante]

I have a couple of questions

1. Since ADWD was released in 2011, has George written any other fiction novels? 
 

2. Has there ever been a situation where a writer realized they didn’t have it in them to do heavy duty writing anymore, and then teamed up with somebody else to have their series finished? So for example, the main author identified the type of chapters they wanted written, and the other person would do the heavy writing?

I am just starting to question what is the point of George even trying to finish the series on his own from now on.  He’s in his 70’s, likes travelling, seems to enjoy social media. Why burden yourself with having the thought of finishing this series hanging over your head on a daily basis. When I am in my 70’s, I sure won’t be wanting to do any heavy work.

[The Winged Griffin]

6 minutes ago, Rubicante said:

I am just starting to question what is the point of George even trying to finish the series on his own from now on.  He’s in his 70’s, likes travelling, seems to enjoy social media. Why burden yourself with having the thought of finishing this series hanging over your head on a daily basis. When I am in my 70’s, I sure won’t be wanting to do any heavy work.

George is different apparently. He puts more monkeys on his back all the time. It appears he wants/likes to have something to do, so he adds more work. It doesn't really feel like a complaint when he says he's got a bazillion things on his plate. 

And weirdly enough, it looks like he genuinely thinks he'll be able to do everything. 

[mormont]

As noted previously ad infinitum, GRRM has been working on this book for a long time. He's had longer to write this book than he has had to write any previous book in the series - some of which were written when he had multiple other projects on the go and nobody to delegate to.

That would tend to suggest that lack of time is not the issue.

[Amris]

I revise my earlier estimate down to 1187 pages.

[Ninefingers]

On 9/2/2021 at 11:43 AM, Mister Smikes said:

 

Dude, it's been 10 years.  Give us a real update.

 

While I like the concept of an update in the abstract, let me call your attention to this. 

6 years ago, he thought he could finish in 4 months. So I'm really not sure there'd be much value in what he'd say. Not that I think he'd trying to be deceptive or anything like that, but I think he struggles to realistically assess himself. 

[Mister Smikes]

9 minutes ago, Ninefingers said:

While I like the concept of an update in the abstract, let me call your attention to this. 

6 years ago, he thought he could finish in 4 months. So I'm really not sure there'd be much value in what he'd say. Not that I think he'd trying to be deceptive or anything like that, but I think he struggles to realistically assess himself. 

There is no value whatsoever (or at least very very little value) in statements of hope, statements of intent, jokes about what we can do to him if he does not finish by a certain date, or vague statements like "I'm working on it".

Statements of actual progress, such as "I have a total of 922 manuscript pages completed" (which he has never said, though he once gave analogous updates on DANCE) or even "I finished a chapter today", or perhaps even "I wrote hundreds of hundreds of pages of THE WINDS OF WINTER during 2020" (which he actually did say earlier this year), mean a little more.  I don't actually believe he would lie in such statements.  But I do believe he should be read as narrowly and pessimistically as possible.

[Ninefingers]

6 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

There is no value whatsoever (or at least very very little value) in statements of hope, statements of intent, jokes about what we can do to him if he does not finish by a certain date, or vague statements like "I'm working on it".

Statements of actual progress, such as "I have a total of 922 manuscript pages completed" (which he has never said, though he once gave analogous updates on DANCE) or even "I finished a chapter today", or perhaps even "I wrote hundreds of hundreds of pages of THE WINDS OF WINTER during 2020" (which he actually did say earlier this year), mean a little more.  I don't actually believe he would lie in such statements.  But I do believe he should be read as narrowly and pessimistically as possible.

Very fair. 

That being said, he's shown willingness to scrap completed pages in the past so even if he does say they're done....meh? But we largely agree. An update would be interesting. I don't believe he would lie, and I do agree that a pessimistic reading of comments is appropriate. 

cheers.

[ManBearPig]

Well, once he is finished writing TWOW, the blog post where he explains what the hell went wrong is gonna be interesting. 

[mormont]

5 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There is no value whatsoever (or at least very very little value) in statements of hope, statements of intent, jokes about what we can do to him if he does not finish by a certain date, or vague statements like "I'm working on it".

Statements of actual progress, such as "I have a total of 922 manuscript pages completed" (which he has never said, though he once gave analogous updates on DANCE) or even "I finished a chapter today", or perhaps even "I wrote hundreds of hundreds of pages of THE WINDS OF WINTER during 2020" (which he actually did say earlier this year), mean a little more.  I don't actually believe he would lie in such statements.  But I do believe he should be read as narrowly and pessimistically as possible.

No, statements such as that have even less value, I'm afraid.

Take it from long experience here: any time in the past that GRRM has given anything that even vaguely sounds like a number, people insist on then making up projections based on that number and then berating GRRM for not meeting those projections (which, again, are based on nothing more than those people projecting a meaning onto that number, a meaning that does not exist).

922 pages tells us nothing more than 'I'm working on it', but people will (wrongly) assume that it does. So it's worse than useless.

The only update you need - the only one anyone needs - is 'I'm working on it'. Possibly with a side order of 'go do something else while I work on it, and don't get hung up on things you can't control'.

[Mister Smikes]

4 hours ago, mormont said:

Take it from long experience here: any time in the past that GRRM has given anything that even vaguely sounds like a number, people insist on then making up projections based on that number and then berating GRRM for not meeting those projections (which, again, are based on nothing more than those people projecting a meaning onto that number, a meaning that does not exist).

I'm not sure which people you are arguing against, but they do not seem to have anything to do with me.

Quote

922 pages tells us nothing more than 'I'm working on it', but people will (wrongly) assume that it does. So it's worse than useless.

It would also (hypothetically, since GRRM did not actually say that) tell me that GRRM has at least 922 pages written.  I could choose to believe GRRM, and probably would.  You would be free to disbelieve him.

Quote

The only update you need - the only one anyone needs - is 'I'm working on it'. 

I'm not sure why I need that either.

Anyhow, to get back to the topic of the thread, I do not think that GRRM has yet passed the 1500 page mark.  But if he were to tell me that he has, I would believe him.  I would not make any projections based thereon about the date of release.  I would not project release in Christmas 2021 or even Christmas 2022.   But I would believe he does indeed have 1500 manuscript pages written.

[Jaenara Belarys]

If he can't finish the series, I'll simply wait until I'm old and grey. Then I die, and if there's an afterlife, I'll ask him how it was supposed to end. 

[Rubicante]

13 hours ago, Ninefingers said:

While I like the concept of an update in the abstract, let me call your attention to this. 

6 years ago, he thought he could finish in 4 months. So I'm really not sure there'd be much value in what he'd say. Not that I think he'd trying to be deceptive or anything like that, but I think he struggles to realistically assess himself. 

He definitely struggles to realistically assess himself. I don’t understand why he continues to take on more and more projects when he cannot complete any of them.

I’ll ask this question again, because nobody answered it before.  Has George written any completed work of fiction at all since 2011?

If not, then why bother writing anymore?  Clearly he does not enjoy deadlines, nor the pressure from the reading community to finally produce TWOW.  Why not enjoy the rest of your life by travelling, attending conventions, and so on?  He doesn’t seem to enjoy writing at all anymore. So if he doesn’t enjoy it, and doesn’t need to do it financially, then why bother?

He should just make AFFC and ADWD non-canon.  If you look at the first three books, they form a decent enough trilogy without any further follow up.

[Kyll.Ing.]

3 hours ago, Rubicante said:

He should just make AFFC and ADWD non-canon.  If you look at the first three books, they form a decent enough trilogy without any further follow up.

Heh, I've toyed with that idea in my head too. I wonder if it would be easier for him to finish the series by starting over from a previous point and undoing some of the knots made in the past two books.

[rotting sea cow]

6 hours ago, Rubicante said:

He should just make AFFC and ADWD non-canon.  If you look at the first three books, they form a decent enough trilogy without any further follow up.

 

3 hours ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

Heh, I've toyed with that idea in my head too. I wonder if it would be easier for him to finish the series by starting over from a previous point and undoing some of the knots made in the past two books.

I disagree. The plots "screw-ups"* were done in the ACOK/ASOS era and that forced the plot in AFFC/ADWD.  The most notorious one is there was no preparation for the five year gap and had to be cancelled. This has still consequences in TWOW, see for example the Mercy chapter, which plainly needs a change on certain things.  

Feast&Dance are from a certain point of view transitioning books, where GRRM moved their characters around where the plot needs them, both geographically and emotionally.

So, it's the other way around Feast&Dance untied many knots, but probably some remain. In particular Dany is still too far away from Westeros.

Edit: I put screw-ups between "" because, they aren't bad plotting, the story in ACOK and ASOS is very good, but that of course had consequences for other ideas that GRRM had at that point.

 

 

[Kyll.Ing.]

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

I disagree. The plots "screw-ups"* were done in the ACOK/ASOS era and that forced the plot in AFFC/ADWD.  The most notorious one is there was no preparation for the five year gap and had to be cancelled. This has still consequences in TWOW, see for example the Mercy chapter, which plainly needs a change on certain things.  

On the other hand, it has been mentioned elsewhere that the five-year gap wasn't actually a plan worked into the story from the outset. I have a sneaky suspicion that's only halfway true. I'm starting to hypothesize that the story GRRM had envisioned for some characters involved a gap, while it didn't for others, and that much of the current trouble stems from trying to reconcile this disparity. Like, he might always have envisioned Sam to study at Oldtown for a few years, while Jon had a busy few months with the Others and Stannis struggled with his war in the north, with no immediate concern for how one story would have to happen in a much shorter time frame than the concurrent ones. Maybe a "we'll deal with that problem when we get there" approach to storyline inconsistencies is what's making progress so difficult. 

Hmm ... or rather, the question is, if that isn't it, then what else could it be? If the problems aren't rooted in chronology, it's difficult to envision what would take so long otherwise. 

[Mister Smikes]

9 hours ago, Rubicante said:

He should just make AFFC and ADWD non-canon.  If you look at the first three books, they form a decent enough trilogy without any further follow up.

I disagree.  Standing alone, the first 3 books are profoundly nihilistic.  Moreso, I suspect, than GRRM intended.  Maybe that's what some want from a work of fantasy, but many others kept reading in the hope that the other foot would drop.  

The next two books were mired in transition struggles.  But some of us would still like to know what the story is trying to transition to.  Otherwise, I don't see much point in the whole exercise.

[Mister Smikes]

9 hours ago, Rubicante said:

I’ll ask this question again, because nobody answered it before.  Has George written any completed work of fiction at all since 2011?

Well, he wrote FIRE AND BLOOD.  Which is a work of fiction, and a reasonably substantial one.  Whether you consider it "complete" or not is somewhat arbitrary given the "fake history" format.  

[rotting sea cow]

41 minutes ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

On the other hand, it has been mentioned elsewhere that the five-year gap wasn't actually a plan worked into the story from the outset. I have a sneaky suspicion that's only halfway true. I'm starting to hypothesize that the story GRRM had envisioned for some characters involved a gap, while it didn't for others, and that much of the current trouble stems from trying to reconcile this disparity. Like, he might always have envisioned Sam to study at Oldtown for a few years, while Jon had a busy few months with the Others and Stannis struggled with his war in the north, with no immediate concern for how one story would have to happen in a much shorter time frame than the concurrent ones. Maybe a "we'll deal with that problem when we get there" approach to storyline inconsistencies is what's making progress so difficult. 

There are a number of characters that would have benefits from a few years gap. In particular Bran, Sansa and Ayra could have a more realistic training timeline. Same with Sam. Similarly the degradation of Theon might be more realistic. Rickon could have grown and maybe forgotten who he was.

Some characters are feasible to put them through such a gap. Tyrion might wander for years in Essos before reaching Dany. Brienne endlessly trying to find Sansa and we could have met her exhausted and disheartened.

On the other hand the gap would have played havoc with Stannis, the North, Dorne and the Iron Islands. Five years of doing... nothing?

Similarly after five years, you would think that Dany, Jon and even Cersei would have a clue about governance, so their falls would have been harder to explain.

 

41 minutes ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

Hmm ... or rather, the question is, if that isn't it, then what else could it be? If the problems aren't rooted in chronology, it's difficult to envision what would take so long otherwise. 

There is certainly a problem syncing Dany's timeline with the rest of the characters. I do wonder if that is the main problem or there is something else.