Do we think George passed 1500 manuscript pages?

[Mister Smikes]

On 9/3/2021 at 11:31 PM, mormont said:

GRRM's repeatedly stated position - which as far as I know is also that of his heirs - is that nobody else is going to be asked to finish the series, whatever happens. 

The world does not normally work this way.   It would be tiresome to explain why.   One can imagine, perhaps, extraordinary exceptions, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.   The fact that GRRM said "screw you" to fans speculating about his death; in no way counts as evidence that he wishes to screw his heirs out of lucrative intellectual property rights, or that some extraordinary attempt to vest such rights in "nobody at all"  would succeed legally.  And as for his literary heirs (the ones with sequel rights), we do not even know who they will be, much less what their wishes will be, decades hence.

That said, the only ending I am interested in seeing is GRRM's ending.   I support his right to continue to tinker with his baby until he is 116 years old, however slowly and ineffectually he may be proceeding.

There is money to be made here.  The only reason GRRM's publisher has not churned out 5 ASOIAF sequels in the last 10 years is because GRRM, who holds certain rights in the matter, wants to keep tinkering with it himself.   Which, again, I support his right to do.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

12 hours ago, Rubicante said:

He doesn’t seem to enjoy writing at all anymore.

If he didn't enjoy writing, he wouldn't have written Fire & Blood. I think he just has a hard time resolving all the different plotlines in the series.

[Mister Smikes]

22 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

If he didn't enjoy writing, he wouldn't have written Fire & Blood.

He is on record as saying he does not enjoy writing, but he does enjoy "having written".  As for F&B, the reason he wrote that has a bit of a complicated history, and it would be an oversimplification at best to suggest he did it just for yuks.

[mormont]

On 9/8/2021 at 10:38 PM, Mister Smikes said:

It would also (hypothetically, since GRRM did not actually say that) tell me that GRRM has at least 922 pages written. 

... which would tell you nothing of any real value. It might seem to be valuable information, but as previously noted by others, it doesn't tell you what the status of those pages is (finished, draft), it doesn't tell you whether some of those pages will be later scrapped or rewritten, and it doesn't tell you or allow you to predict how many pages he'll have a week, a month or a year from now. It doesn't tell you what the problems are now, or what the future problems might be. It tells you nothing more relevant or significant than 'I'm working on it' does.

On 9/8/2021 at 10:38 PM, Mister Smikes said:

I could choose to believe GRRM, and probably would.  You would be free to disbelieve him.

A bizarre suggestion. I would be, but I wouldn't disbelieve him: he'd have no reason to lie! I would just know, as noted above, that this wasn't a yardstick or really anything that's useful for me to know.

On 9/8/2021 at 10:38 PM, Mister Smikes said:

I'm not sure why I need that either.

You don't, really, I suppose.

17 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

The world does not normally work this way.   It would be tiresome to explain why. 

I'm sure you know best. But the facts are as I have explained above. No need to tire yourself explaining how the world works, oh wise one.

[Kyll.Ing.]

18 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

There are a number of characters that would have benefits from a few years gap. In particular Bran, Sansa and Ayra could have a more realistic training timeline. Same with Sam. Similarly the degradation of Theon might be more realistic. Rickon could have grown and maybe forgotten who he was.

Some characters are feasible to put them through such a gap. Tyrion might wander for years in Essos before reaching Dany. Brienne endlessly trying to find Sansa and we could have met her exhausted and disheartened.

On the other hand the gap would have played havoc with Stannis, the North, Dorne and the Iron Islands. Five years of doing... nothing?

Similarly after five years, you would think that Dany, Jon and even Cersei would have a clue about governance, so their falls would have been harder to explain.

Exactly. The intended story arc for some characters needs a gap of a few years, others need there not to be a gap at the same time, and this creates all sorts of problems in creating a coherent timeline. "Character A needs some time to pass for X to happen, before reuniting with character B ... but what is character B doing in the meantime? And what about event Y, which they both need to be present for, but which seemed so urgent when the two characters split up?"

Except often it's not just characters A and B, but the entire Latin and Greek alphabets and then some. 

I suspect GRRM has long had some plans for what should happen to each character and what their story arcs are, but is having a lot of problems finding out what should happen when, and maybe even realizing that some events make others logically impossible. And some of those arcs were set in motion several books ago, so it's a little too late to change course at this point.

Notably, I think, all the stuff that needs to happen before winter truly arrives. Some characters are supposed to be out of time to prepare for it already, while others need to experience some lengthy events (wars and suchlike) first, and winter is shown to begin more or less simultaneously all over Westeros with the white ravens and all. And that is just one of the many knots to untangle, without making any new ones.

In short, it might not possible to build a coherent timeline out of all the intended pieces.

[Mithras]

42 minutes ago, mormont said:

It tells you nothing more relevant or significant than 'I'm working on it' does.

Actually, at least for me, "I have written X pages" means much more than "I'm working on it". That is because at this point, I can no longer believe in GRRM when he says he is just working on it. GRRM was months away from finishing TWoW in 2015 based on his famous update. 6 years passed and there is still no TWoW in sight. This is not normal. This requires an explanation. Some people choose to believe that GRRM scrapped a lot of material and started over. I choose to believe that he did not put real work in TWoW at least until the latest writing episode during the pandemic. Only a real, tangible update from GRRM can settle the matter of what went so horribly wrong from 2015 to now.

[mormont]

I mean, if you don't believe GRRM's word when he says he's working on it, then nothing he says really has any significance or relevance to you. *shrugs*

[Firefae]

Believing someone to not be completely honest and forthcoming about a certain topic isn't the same as never believing their word ever.

 

Once TWOW is done he's propably gonna explain more clearly where he did ran into problems. Right now I believe he has been running into similar problems he ran into while writing Feast and Dance. So yeah, he probably got stuck a lot and has been rewriting old chapters,

[Daeron the Daring]

Recently I read The Accursed Kings by Maurice Druon. What I loved so much about it (and hated it as well sometimes) is how easily he was able to jump in time to tell his story that was decades long. Quickly jumping over 3 or 6 months was just easy to him, and the dinamics in it were just so good. The story did not require it. However, there were times he made jumps few years ahead, which left out just so much important stuff. But he knew he has a story to tell. I was so mad when ****spoilers**** from Philip the Tall's coronation and first few days of reign we jumped into the middle of Charles the Fair's reign. 8 years it was. Philip (my favourite character) died, his son as well, but all I've got to know about his entire 6 year long reign is that he had some scandal regarding her mother-in-law (an important character) from a conversation. In 2-3 lines. And he was one of the most important character until then. Druon just made such a thing possible, with leaving out things he could've included. But he had to and he was right about leaving it out. I wasn't feeling empty, just mad (because of my preferances, of course). ****endofspoilers****

Now I don't expect George to be able to jump a decade in time. But jumping a few months a few times should be possible for him as well. But I feel like he can't let things go. Would important things happen during these months left out? Yes. So what? A few lines and hints is all he has to give. It's not like we have to know everything. Not to mention he might use these left out time-periods as his leverage over the readers. Things we aren't allowed to know yet could happen at every corner. Things that wouldn't look important to POVs. After all, we had A bunch of Eddard POVs in AGOT, and the guy barely spill out anything. Just imagine how much he could've talked about.  I can only hope George is progressing this way, otherwise he'll need some books before enough years pass till it can be over, because a short winter would just be lame. 

That being said, I kind of hope he will soon talk about it, because not tslking about it (which he's been doing for a long time now) doesn't mean any good. Last year from june to november he posted a lot of updates on his blog regarding TWOW, since then only a half one.  But I kind of believe it will be out until the end of 2022.

[Mister Smikes]

7 hours ago, mormont said:

... which would tell you nothing of any real value.

Whether it tells me something meaningful is up to GRRM.  All I was saying is that it would be nice to have a real update that provides meaningful information.

I never said I had a right to demand such information.  I never claimed that GRRM owes me anything at all.   I would merely find the information interesting.

If GRRM were to tell us all tomorrow that he had only 600 manuscript pages of TWOW completed, I think some of us (I don't speak for everyone) would be dismayed and lose some level of hope (and interest) in this series.  If he were to tell us tomorrow that he had 1500 manuscript pages completed many of us would be more hopeful, and more interested, and more likely to debate theories on this forum, and (perhaps) more likely to recommend the series to friends.  If he were to tell me he has 922 manuscript pages completed, that would obviously lie somewhere in the middle, but that would not be meaningless information either.

It is up to each of us, of course, how we respond to such information.  

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It might seem to be valuable information, but as previously noted by others, it doesn't tell you what the status of those pages is (finished, draft),

GRRM is perfectly capable of specifying the status of the pages completed and has done so in the past.  (Should he be vague about such things, my philosophy is to read his words as narrowly as possible, so as not to make myself overly hopeful).

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it doesn't tell you whether some of those pages will be later scrapped or rewritten,

As an author, he has the right to do this any time, even after publication.  It does not render such information meaningless.

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and it doesn't tell you or allow you to predict how many pages he'll have a week, a month or a year from now. It doesn't tell you what the problems are now, or what the future problems might be.

I never claimed it gave me the infallible power to predict the future.  It's not all or nothing.

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I would be, but I wouldn't disbelieve him: he'd have no reason to lie!

I trust GRRM enough to assume he would not lie about such a thing even if he had a motive to lie.  That's why I would consider such information to be meaningful.

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You don't, really, I suppose.

Right.  And it's a bit arbitrary of you to say what things I may or may not be interested in.   I don't need to prove that I "need" them. 

I thought it was a hopeful sign when GRRM told us that he had written hundreds of hundreds of pages of THE WINDS OF WINTER in 2020.  And I don't mean hopeful for a Christmas, 2021 release, just generally hopeful.  I would have liked an even more concrete update than that, but still, it was not meaningless information.  But according to you, this was meaningless information and meant absolutely nothing more than "I'm working on it."  Bizarre. 

[Mister Smikes]

3 hours ago, mormont said:

I mean, if you don't believe GRRM's word when he says he's working on it, then nothing he says really has any significance or relevance to you. *shrugs*

I never suggested I did not believe GRRM when he said "I'm working on it", 9 years ago.  I did believe him then, and still believe him now.  I just did not think these words told me much.  

He's said more meaningful and more hopeful things since, such as "I wrote hundreds and hundreds of pages of THE WINDS OF WINTER in 2020."

I believe both statements.  I don't see why you are pretending you don't see any difference, in terms of the amount of information conveyed.  

[Mister Smikes]

10 hours ago, mormont said:

.I'm sure you know best. But the facts are as I have explained above. No need to tire yourself explaining how the world works, oh wise one.

You are sarcastic.  But that's okay.  I have no particular need to prove anything to you. or anyone else here, about what will or will not happen after GRRM passes into the Great Beyond (which I hope be many decades hence).  Anyhow, I don't really know for certain, any more than you do.   Nor do I have any interest in any derivative works produced that are not primarily the product of GRRM's brain.  I was not saying much, nor was what I was saying unreasonable.  But I do stand by what I said.

Some day, in the far far distant future, the series will be in the public domain, and anyone can write any sequel or prequel or other derivative work.  But long before that happens, it is very likely, if not near certain, that the lawful copyright holders will give serious consideration to making a buck or two out of their exclusive rights.  I can't prove that they will, but it would be extraordinary if they did not.

[Ninefingers]

meta comment: 

It makes me happy that we're able to have conversations like this. I do not look back fondly on the old days when any sort of mention of this topic immediately degenerated into a toxic flame war and it all had to be shut down.

[mushroomshirt]

On 9/8/2021 at 7:48 AM, Ninefingers said:

While I like the concept of an update in the abstract, let me call your attention to this. 

Thanks for the link!  It was fun (maybe not the right word... morbidly nostalgic?) to read that post again.  I remember reading that series of blog posts vividly and just waiting for the final update on Winds, knowing and dreading that it would be what it ended up being.

"You wanted an update. Here's the update. You won't like it."

This early line reminded me a lot of the Dr. Strange movie when Dr. Strange comes back and tells the zealots that they will get what they wanted and be united with Dormamu.  Makes me feel like one of those zealots. Not sure how many people outside these fora even remember / know / care / believe that there is another book coming someday.

Welcome all zealots of the cult of the coming of the Winds of Winter!  I still believe  

[Kyll.Ing.]

3 hours ago, mushroomshirt said:

Thanks for the link!  It was fun (maybe not the right word... morbidly nostalgic?) to read that post again.  I remember reading that series of blog posts vividly and just waiting for the final update on Winds, knowing and dreading that it would be what it ended up being.

It's crazy to think that this blog post came out closer to the release of ADWD than to the present day ... by more than a year. I say it often, but I remain so puzzled I cannot help repeating it, that Martin thought TWoW was months away from being finished when the process hadn't even reached its halfway point. I really, really wonder what the book looked like in summer 2015.

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

It's crazy to think that this blog post came out closer to the release of ADWD than to the present day ... by more than a year. I say it often, but I remain so puzzled I cannot help repeating it, that Martin thought TWoW was months away from being finished when the process hadn't even reached its halfway point. I really, really wonder what the book looked like in summer 2015.

I see no mystery here.  This post, read narrowly, told us almost nothing we did not already know about how much progress he had made.  He had recently put aside his work for the WORLD BOOK (which was quite substantial), was retreating from his HBO involvement, and perhaps had reason to hope for a greater level of focused effort in the future.  

In theory, "months" is enough time to write an entire book.  All you need is focus and determination, or, failing that, help from the magical elves.

"He pulled one from the fridge, opened it, and ascended wearily to his third-floor office to face the stack of blank paper he was supposedly turning into a book.  Once again, the elves had failed to knock off any chapters in his absence; page thirty-seven was still on his typewriter.  You just couldn't get good elves any more, Sandy thought morosely.  He started at the words with distaste, took a swig from the bottle in his hand, and looked around for a distraction."

--- THE ARMAGEDDON RAG, by George RR Martin (1983).

[The Winged Griffin]

I also think that these last few updates he gave in 2020, where he told us who he worked on, and even how many chapters he had recently completed are far more substantial and momentarily informative than the generic "I'm working on it", which by itself means absolutely nothing. 

Chapter counts at least allows us to determine things like that: 

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/hvtrv8/spoilers_extended_a_list_of_every_confirmed_and/

 

[Rubicante]

I suspect from the time George missed the TWOW before season 6 deadline, to the conclusion of the show, he wrote nothing.  It was probably only after nearly every person on Earth taking a giant shit on season 8, and the ending of the series, that he felt pressured to properly tell the story. 

Does anyone remember how fake King’s Landing looked behind Harry Strickland? 

[The Winged Griffin]

4 hours ago, Rubicante said:

I suspect from the time George missed the TWOW before season 6 deadline, to the conclusion of the show, he wrote nothing.  It was probably only after nearly every person on Earth taking a giant shit on season 8, and the ending of the series, that he felt pressured to properly tell the story. 

Does anyone remember how fake King’s Landing looked behind Harry Strickland? 

That's my instinct as well, although he did say in 2017, and then 2018 that he hoped TWOW would be done by the end of these years, which suggests that he did work on it (or at least he planned to) between 2016 and the end of the show.

[SeanBeanedMeUp]

I suspect that GRRM is worried that he wrote way too much and is trying to figure out how to cut it down. Honestly I don't get why he can't have the books have larger pages so he could fit more content.