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UK Politics: Who Pays the Andyman?


Tywin Manderly

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Scotland forecast seems more likely to be a rejection of Tory gains (SNP only sensible vote in that case), rather than some new grand cry for independence. Obviously not going to hurt that cause though.

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The media has completely failed to handle politicians that shamelessly lie so thick and fast that any attempt to pull them up is too late as they've already moved on to the next lie. And it's utterly fucking democracy, as that behavior becomes a feedback loop - the more they do it, the more it helps them.

Meanwhile anyone that actually attempts to run an ethical campaign just gets run over by the blatant lies and the even worse ones being spread and believed on Facebook

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2 minutes ago, john said:

Scotland forecast seems more likely to be a rejection of Tory gains (SNP only sensible vote in that case), rather than some new grand cry for independence. Obviously not going to hurt that cause though.

The 'Grand Cry' will come as a reaction to this, Scotland has proved by the greatest margin (citation needed :P ) yet, to be fundamentally at odds with England and Wales. 

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11 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

 

They forgot that a massive chunk of the people that wanted Brexit were a large part of their base. People can take issue with that as much as they want but votes are votes. 

One of the fundamental problems facing Labour in this election was that a massive chunk of the people that wanted to remain are also a large part of their base.

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1 minute ago, Chaircat Meow said:

So the Blairites were right all along. 2017 was a freak after all. 2019 is what it looks like when you send in the far left. 

Can we please dispense with the myth that the current Labour party is far left? The proposed spending plans would have brought the UK squarely in line with the mainland west European average.

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4 minutes ago, karaddin said:

The media has completely failed to handle politicians that shamelessly lie so thick and fast that any attempt to pull them up is too late as they've already moved on to the next lie. And it's utterly fucking democracy, as that behavior becomes a feedback loop - the more they do it, the more it helps them.

Meanwhile anyone that actually attempts to run an ethical campaign just gets run over by the blatant lies and the even worse ones being spread and believed on Facebook

One of the most telling things I've ever seen was when Lewis Black confronted Chuck Todd on this specific issue. Todd admitted that the media is afraid to push back because they are terrified of losing access to elected officials. 

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1 minute ago, Liffguard said:

One of the fundamental problems facing Labour in this election was that a massive chunk of the people that wanted to remain are also a large part of their base.

They'd still vote labour though. I'd rather labour just accept that brexit won the referendum and get behind doing it rather than endure another 5 years of the tories, now both are gonna happen regardless.  

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3 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

They'd still vote labour though.  

Would they? Maybe so. But at the time Labour's strategy was being established, the Lib Dems were looking potentially pretty strong, and it wasn't unreasonable to think that going full-Brexit would result in bleeding a lot of support to them. Alternatively, you could have just get a lot of people staying home.

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1 minute ago, Liffguard said:

Would they? Maybe so. But at the time Labour's strategy was being established, the Lib Dems were looking potentially pretty strong, and it wasn't unreasonable to think that going full-Brexit would result in bleeding a lot of support to them. Alternatively, you could have just get a lot of people staying home.

 

Do you genuinely believe that this would have cost them more votes than it gained? Labour's lost a seat that they've held for 70 years. If that's not being out of touch with their old base then I don't know what to tell you. 

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Just now, Trigger Warning said:

 

Do you genuinely believe that this would have cost them more votes than it gained? Labour's lost a seat that they've held for 70 years. If that's not being out of touch with their old base then I don't know what to tell you. 

I honestly don't know. In retrospect, probably not, but they didn't have the benefit of retrospect when putting a strategy together.

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14 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well, I guess they got their “Second People’s Vote”.

Well no. A 2nd referendum would not have been a vote that would have potentially made Corbyn PM. That's why an election was thought to be an 'elephant trap' by leading Remainers; it mixed up the Remain cause with the fitness of Corbyn to govern.

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8 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Well no. A 2nd referendum would not have been a vote that would have potentially made Corbyn PM. That's why an election was thought to be an 'elephant trap' by leading Remainers; it mixed up the Remain cause with the fitness of Corbyn to govern.

There’s truth to that. At the same time, Johnson seemed to bumble through so much of his campaign that the only clear message he really got through was to “Get Brexit Done”. And that seems to have resonated strongly with the electorate.

Edit

Seems like the winning combination was “Get Brexit Done” and “Not Corbyn”. Both of which seem quite obvious winning themes. But only in hindsight to the left, I guess.

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8 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

There’s truth to that. At the same time, Johnson seemed to bumble through so much of his campaign that the only clear message he really got through was to “Get Brexit Done”. And that seems to have resonated strongly with the electorate.

Yes it does. Unfortunately Get Brexit Done is an obvious untruth. All that gets done on 31 January is the UK loses all its EU voting rights and agrees to end its own internal market in perpetuity by international treaty. Nothing else happens at all. If people voted to Get Brexit Done they were conned. If they voted out of genuine fear of Corbyn that's fine I guess but Corbyn couldn't win an outright majority; he'd have been a weak PM at the head of a coalition had he won, which would have only had one policy it could be sure of support for: a 2nd referendum leading to Remain.

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1 hour ago, Werthead said:

I don't see a path to keep Scotland in the union. If the SNP can't get the Tories to agree to a new referendum, they can unilaterally hold one, get the UN to observe it or something, and if the result is 60% + in favour of independence, it would be very difficult for Westminster not to recognise the result. Plus the Conservatives have no real reason to do so if they think they can afford to lose Scotland and it not destroy them at the ballot box. With a lot of people saying that losing Scotland and Northern Ireland is a price worth paying for Brexit, this might in fact be the Tories' only window to destroy any chance of an opposition government taking power in the next two or three elections.

In the long run there would be a correction mechanism - probably people rallying around the LibDems as a new centrist party - but that's a hell of a thing to pin your hopes on.

 

1 hour ago, ljkeane said:

Whatever. I've given up caring to be honest.

With the UK doing something as stupid as brexit I can see why Scottish voters might be more inclined to vote for independence but leaving the UK out side the EU would actually probably be significantly worse for Scotland than the previous plan of independence for Scotland with both remaining in the EU afterwards. But, hey, I've got no confidence in any voters making logical decisions anymore. 

The irony of course is that Scottish independence was more viable and less economically impactful while the UK was in the EU. Because effectively nothing much changes. With Brexit Scotland now faces the prospect of either a hard border and immigration controls with the EU or with England. Could it be that Brexit makes Scotland staying in the UK the better option as Scotland is going to be hit really hard either way?

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2 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Yes it does. Unfortunately Get Brexit Done is an obvious untruth. All that gets done on 31 January is the UK loses all its EU voting rights and agrees to end its own internal market in perpetuity by international treaty. Nothing else happens at all. If people voted to Get Brexit Done they were conned. If they voted out of genuine fear of Corbyn that's fine I guess but Corbyn couldn't win an outright majority; he'd have been a weak PM at the head of coalition had he won, which would have only had one policy it could be sure of support for: a 2nd referendum leading to Remain.

Which suggests that it was distaste for that outcome - an eventual second referendum - that drove the voters to Johnson, rather than the fear of Corbyn, who as you say would not have had much power anyway.

Bringing us right back to the People’s Vote on Brexit.

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