UK Politics: Who Pays the Andyman?

[john]

26 minutes ago, The BlackBear said:

The 'Grand Cry' will come as a reaction to this, Scotland has proved by the greatest margin (citation needed  ) yet, to be fundamentally at odds with England and Wales. 

Well, forecast is 55 and it was 56 seats in 2015, so almost equalling their record if you go by the polling.  Tories still probably second party in Scotland but that’s first past the post for you.

[Chaircat Meow]

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

Which suggests that it was distaste for that outcome - an eventual second referendum - that drove the voters to Johnson, rather than the fear of Corbyn, who as you say would not have had much power anyway.

Bringing us right back to the People’s Vote on Brexit.

Corbyn was a far bigger issue for Labour than its Brexit stance. Its Brexit stance would have been a problem with certain types of voters yes, but Corbyn was a killer on the doorsteps. I don't necessarily think people factored the mechanism of a hung Parliament into their calculations that much - they wanted to know why they should vote Labour and Corbyn was the major turnoff, so they voted Tory. 

[Liffguard]

5 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

 

With Brexit Scotland now faces the prospect of either a hard border and immigration controls with the EU or with England. Could it be that Brexit makes Scotland staying in the UK the better option as Scotland is going to be hit really hard either way?

The thing is, Brexit itself was a decision largely driven by values and identity politics rather than any sort of utilitarian analysis. Scottish independence could very well follow the same route. Even if you could conclusively show that Scotland would be better off in the UK and out of the EU, there might well be enough Scots willing to, essentially, tell England to fuck off anyway.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Just now, Chaircat Meow said:

Corbyn was a far bigger issue for Labour than its Brexit stance. Its Brexit stance would have been a problem with certain types of voters yes, but Corbyn was a killer on the doorsteps. I don't necessarily think people factored the mechanism of a hung Parliament into their calculations that much - they wanted to know why they should vote Labour and Corbyn was the major turnoff, so they voted Tory. 

Maybe, just maybe, the support for Brexit has not diminished, but had in fact increased since the Referendum. Unpalatable to Remainers, I know, but seems to be borne out by the predicted election results.

[Chaircat Meow]

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

Maybe, just maybe, the support for Brexit has not diminished, but had in fact increased since the Referendum. Unpalatable to Remainers, I know, but seems to be borne out by the predicted election results.

No, not really because as I pointed out a GE isn't a test of Brexit opinion per se; it mixes up every other issue too, such as Corbyn and his fitness to govern. Polling suggests pro-Remain sentiment has grown slightly since the referendum so it is now above 50%.  

[Trigger Warning]

9 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Which suggests that it was distaste for that outcome - an eventual second referendum - that drove the voters to Johnson, rather than the fear of Corbyn, who as you say would not have had much power anyway.

Bringing us right back to the People’s Vote on Brexit.

 

Corbyn is absolutely radioactive to this election, he should have taken a clear stance on Brexit and I think that would have evened out the Tory majority a bit but he was never going to win if I'm being honest with myself, people HATE him. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 minute ago, Trigger Warning said:

 

Corbyn is absolutely radioactive to this election, he should have taken a clear stance on Brexit and I think that would have evened out the Tory majority a bit but he was never going to win if I'm being honest with myself, people HATE him. 

I remember when he first rose to prominence - after the Milliband fiasco was it? -and these exact sentiments were raised. He was loved by a radical fringe, but most didn’t expect him to last long because he is so extreme. Somehow he has stuck around much longer than his shelf life, but the chickens have now come home to roost. The radicals just didn’t want to accept that.

He is the AOC of British politics, just in the shape of a cardigan clad grandpa.

[The Anti-Targ]

33 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well, I guess they got their “Second People’s Vote”.

 

16 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Well no. A 2nd referendum would not have been a vote that would have potentially made Corbyn PM. That's why an election was thought to be an 'elephant trap' by leading Remainers; it mixed up the Remain cause with the fitness of Corbyn to govern.

Well yes it sort of is, in that the majority of the country will have voted for parties with a remain / referendum (possibly binding) with remain as an option position. But no, in that the parliamentary result of the GE will not reflect that majority vote. Assuming Lib Dem would eventually decide to support a Labour coalition rather than give power back to Boris (not necessarily a safe assumption), or at least assuming Lib Dem voters are reluctantly willing to accept a Labour lead coalition this time around it seems the majority of the country may not have had a deal-breaker problem with Corbyn as PM, albeit many have concerns.

Though if UKIP+BXP+DUP+Conservative >50% then I think it should be widely accepted that the majority of the people got the govt and the Brexit outcome they wanted. If you are a conservative and you really don't want Brexit, then to have voted for the Conservative party in this election would have been an exercise in self delusion. But I suspect a lot of conservatives have just grown tired of the whole Brexit shit and have voted the path of least resistance (whether true or not) to getting it off the table.

[Liffguard]

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I remember when he first rose to prominence - after the Milliband fiasco was it? -and these exact sentiments were raised. He was loved by a radical fringe, but most didn’t expect him to last long because he is so extreme. Somehow he has stuck around much longer than his shelf life, but the chickens have now come home to roost. The radicals just didn’t want to accept that.

He is the AOC of British politics, just in the shape of a cardigan clad grandpa.

Again though, if you actually look at his policies, he's not particularly extreme at all. This is a prime example of manufacturing consent. The papers declared him extreme, and made that the story in spite of all available evidence, and stuck to that line consistently.

[john]

Other news from Scotland - several cases of voter fraud by impersonation investigated in Glasgow and Renfrewshire.  East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson’s seat) reporting 80% turnout, coin toss whether Swinson can take it.  Also, Ruth Davidson promised to go skinny dipping in Loch Ness if the SNP won more than 50 seats.

[The Anti-Targ]

BBC is reporting a 2.8% lower voter turnout than 2017, 62.4% turnout. Seems very low for a very existential election. Mid-winter election seems to have had the desired effect of keeping turnout low. Not sure if the students being prevented from voting thing would shift that dial much. Honestly for all that political parties can plot ans scheme to keep voter turn out down, the system itself should bend over backwards to make sure people get to vote if they want to and they are fit the criteria for being eligible to vote. 

[The Anti-Targ]

Blyth Valley flipped to Cons for the first time ever. BXP got 8% of the vote. Cons won by 1.8%. Lib Dems got 5%. But not only did Lib Dems get an amount of votes that if half of them went to Labour Labour would have won, Lib Dem and Green both increased their vote share. So it could be that a lot of people didn't get the tactical voting memo.

Or leave voters got the memo instead, and so labour leave voters did vote tactically.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

I can't stay up and watch this anymore.  Too depressing.   Was 0lanning to stay up till about 3 am

I guess ill up my brexit preparations.  We are so fucked.

[williamjm]

18 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Blyth Valley flipped to Cons for the first time ever. BXP got 8% of the vote. Cons won by 1.8%. Lib Dems got 5%. But not only did Lib Dems get an amount of votes that if half of them went to Labour Labour would have won, Lib Dem and Green both increased their vote share. So it could be that a lot of people didn't get the tactical voting memo.

Or leave voters got the memo instead, and so labour leave voters did vote tactically.

I wonder if voters were less likely to vote tactically in a seat which looked it should be a safe Labour seat?

[felice]

24 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

BBC is reporting a 2.8% lower voter turnout than 2017, 62.4% turnout. Seems very low for a very existential election.

The problem is the major issue overshadowing everything else is orthogonal to the usual party politics. You've got a great many Tory voters staying loyal to the party despite opposing Brexit, while Labour discourages Remainers with talk of how they'd do Brexit better, and discourages Leavers with plans for a referendum that risks stopping it.

[The Anti-Targ]

4 minutes ago, williamjm said:

I wonder if voters were less likely to vote tactically in a seat which looked it should be a safe Labour seat?

Like I said, remain voters didn't vote tactically, it seems, but it seems leave voters did. If this is how things go down with Brexit really spoiling a lot of Labour seats. I think a lot of those Labour leavers are going to be regretting their decision to vote Brexit. Maybe they voted Brexit as a protest vote thinking Labour was going to win anyway, much like, allegedly a lot of people voted leave as a protest vote in 2016 because they thought remain would win anyway.

[williamjm]

For some variety Tories lose Putney and Angus with significant swings to Labour and SNP respectively. It looks like they might be struggling in Remain areas, even if they're doing very well overall.

Meanwhile the pro-Remain Alliance Party have gained a seat in Northern Ireland.

[The Anti-Targ]

Will Labour and LD voting in favour of this GE (the only way this GE could ever happen) go down in UK history as the worst political decision/calculation ever made? No matter your political leanings, you have to conclude that Labour and the Lib Dems were mind numblingly stupid to vote in favour of this election. The second worst political (non)decision was not being able to cobble together a parliamentary majority to kick Boris out of #10 and make a referendum happen, which really lead to the inevitable decision for both Lab and LD to vote in favour of a GE.

There is still a school of thought that the Corbyn faction wants Brexit, but it doesn't want to be blamed for it. So it doesn't mind the Tories winning this round, because the Corbyn faction is making a 300 IQ play for Labour rule to dominate for the next generation because of how badly the Tories will muck up Brexit. I wonder if this alleged 300 IQ play will end up being more of a 30 IQ play.

[felice]

25 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Will Labour and LD voting in favour of this GE (the only way this GE could ever happen) go down in UK history as the worst political decision/calculation ever made?

 

It's certainly a strong contender.

[Jeor]

5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

A little naive perhaps? Anything bad that happens because of Brexit will be the EU's fault for being petty and not coming to the table in good faith in the future relationship negotiations; which is more likely to be how the UK govt approaches negotiations.

But the biggest concern UK people should have is on trade negotiations with the USA. The UK has pretty much ceded all trade negotiation expertise to Brussels for, what, 40 years? Lambs to the slaughter comes to mind. At least in the case of the EU it still regards the UK as important for the overall prosperity of the EU. The US is more likely to see the UK as ripe for a hostile takeover and asset stripping. I hope your trade negotiators are well prepared, or trying to get well prepared.

Maybe a bit naive of me, but Brexit and "EU intransigence" isn't going to absolve Boris of all the domestic problems that have and will continue to occur.

The other silver lining (in an admittedly very dark, very big cloud) is that Corbyn is finished.

The next Labour leader is going to have a mammoth task, but if they get the right person (and I don't know UK politics well enough to know who that is) they'll be on a better trajectory than they were with Corbs.